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Thursday, August 01, 2013


I really like this Papelbon guy.

Not sure if the lack of "I didn't come here for this" comments in the last thread reflect Beerleaguer restraint or indifference.

Papelbon will recover, he's still a great reliever with a disappearing splitter who'll put together two more solid seasons if he stays in Philadelphia.

Corey ,
I would like to quote to you the first two words of your own headline by way of rebuttal:

Papelbon blows

My bet is that Papelbon tries to force his way out of town with his mouth by making at least one or more foolish and ill-advised comments this season about the team.

I'd recommend reading Pap's comments after the game, they're effing golden:

Q: Your strikeout numbers are down, you know.
Papelbon: I think every year is different. Like I said earlier, if I was giving up a lot of home runs or giving up lots of doubles and stuff like that, I would start to make adjustments. But after tonight I just chalk it up to that’s baseball.

Q: Your velocity is also down.
Papelbon: I’m not going out there and trying to blow anybody away. I’m trying to get outs. That’s basically what it boils down to.

Another Papelbon quote from the article dlh referenced:

"I go by facts and I stand by what I say. I don’t feel like I said anything that wasn’t untrue."

The rare triple negative truth.

Q: You realize this is your sixth blown save.
Papelbon: I like to call it reverse production.

dlhunter - the point is to get outs, isn't it? Whether it's a fly ball or a strikeout.
His breaking pitch is still filthy so the fastball velocity isn't a huge deal. He'll still be valuable to help us compete next year

Q: Cole, how do you feel about Papelbon losing the game for you tonight?
Hamels: I didn't come here for this.

Jake, when's the comet due?

Compete next year Jake? Are you mad?

Drops in velocity is a big deal with pitchers too. If your velocity is down but you still have a good breaking ball then players will just wait on the 'fastball'.

"His breaking pitch is still filthy so the fastball velocity isn't a huge deal."

The results say otherwise. He's basically a 2-pitch pitcher, and he throws his fastball over 70% of the time. A 4-5 MPH drop in velocity is huge for a pitcher who's that reliant on his fastball.

Corn - he still throws in the low-mid 90s. Not too bad.

BAP - he's gotten the job done hasn't he? Well, most of the time. Yeah he's overpaid but that's on Amaro

"Papelbon will recover, he's still a great reliever."

No, he's not.

He's a quickly fading reliever with a terrible contract who is very hard to root for. He's not close to "great" anymore and never will be again. And the rest of baseball knows it.

Ruben has made a ton of mistakes. This signing has to be at the top of the list.

Has anyone looked at Papelbon's numbers? He's still clearly the best pitcher out there (not a ringing endorsement).

For what it's worth, according to my Jake detection method (only go to the Typepad profile of the real Jake and not the impostor Jake, so that the real one's website shows up in a different color as a visited link), the Jake on this thread is not real.

If it wasn't clear: "best pitcher out there" means best pitcher out there in the Phillies bullpen.

Bubba: "'I go by facts and I stand by what I say. I don’t feel like I said anything that wasn’t untrue.'

The rare triple negative truth."

Precisely. Couldn't have said it better. Gotta respect the honesty.

Ninth inning should be used in minor league introductory courses. "Don't let this happen to you"

"he's gotten the job done hasn't he?"

He has? He has the worst save percentage in baseball among the 31 relievers with more than 10 saves. And when he has entered with a 1-run lead -- which is precisely the situation when we most need an elite closer -- he has converted 4 saves & blown 6. Is it a total coincidence that the worst season of his career corresponds with a 1.6 MPH drop in average velocity since last year (which was already 1 MPH down from the previous year)? And his velocity recently has been lower still. He has been topping out around 91 for the last month or so -- and that's exactly the time period when his problems arose.

Good post, BAP. Didn't realize the numbers were that bad. Makes you think we're going to see a whole lot of 2009 Lidge type outings in the near future.

Minor correction. Heath Bell's save percentage is slightly worse. He has 15 saves & 5 blown saves (75%). Papelbon has 20 saves & 6 blown saves (76.9%). So of the 31 relievers with 10+ saves, he ranks 30th, not 31st, in save percentage.

That's Paptastic

What a clown. More from the DMurph article:

"I think for me this year it’s been a constant adjustment on how to figure out how to go without pitching or pitching in tie ballgames a lot. I think for me more than anything there have been some situations that have come up that have been fairly new for me."

Yep, that's the issue this year--you're not getting enough save opportunities, and the act of pitching in a tie game is TOTALLY different than pitching when you have a 1-run lead. Based on the stats b_a_p posted, looks to me like the problem (from your perspective) is you haven't had enough 3-run "save" chances to pad your stats with. The real problem is your 90mph fastball and sh8tty location.

Who cares at this point?

The Heyman article on the Amaro/Cashman thing is damning. Heyman has an axe to grind there, as the two clearly don't like each other. But if we're to believe what's said- and he's specific down to the prospect offered for Young, so I tend to believe Heyman here- you can no longer make any argument to refute that Amaro is a complete dope.

He has no idea how to value players- not in the FA market, not in acquiring talent via trade, and now we know certainly not in the selling off of talent. He also has admitted he has no plan, doesn't value walks or OBP, and is keeping these players together because (his words) they've all been on a bunch of All-Star teams.

It hasn't felt this hopeless to be a Phillies fan in a long, long time. And that feeling won't be gone until Amaro gets canned.

On the post-game show, they tipped their hats to both pitchers. I found that amusing.

I still can't believe that Amaro analyzed his team after the 2011 offensive collapse and decided that a $50m closer would fix everything.

Dennis Deitch of the Delco Times confirms in today's article that Pap in an "unpopular clubhouse presence"

I still can't believe that Amaro analyzed his team after the 2011 offensive collapse and decided that a $50m closer would fix everything.

Posted by: Steve | Friday, August 02, 2013 at 07:22 AM

Offensive collapse? Don't you mean pitching collapse by Cliff Lee?

Papelbon is one of those guys who his teammates tolerate when winning and whose persona becomes tough to deal with through tough times.

Imagine his struggles in close games this year and last year haven't exactly endeared him to his teammates either.

That Heyman article is very damning if close to true (he's wrong about the Yankees having to pick up $5M, though). Kahnle is a better prospect than I expected RAJ could get for Young.

Not just Game 5. That team had its issues getting runs across when it counted.

Papelbon stinks. No question.

But, bases loaded, no one out and not a run crosses the plate. This team HAS TO score at least one run in that situation. That is as egregious an offense as Papelbon's blown save in my opinion.

Mary, Queen of Heaven, please put the cream and the clear in Paps locker.

Sandberg cost them a run, no doubt. The going-on-contact situation (the dumbest play in baseball) is a Charlie decision (Marnuel said so himself earlier in the year).

In the 9th, there is NO WAY you send McDonald on either of those fly balls. He would've been out by fifteen feet.

Don't forget the Hamels CS either. Just a poor night all-around (outside of Hamels' pitching performance).

*Manuel, obviously

The header for this thread is 3 words too long.

Steve - Lee blew a 4 run lead in Game 2 that year.

I hope that this incident will at least shut Paps up for the rest of the season.

Rube can't trade Michael Young for a prospect--we might need MY to compete next year. Rube is the a88 backwards GM. We're lucky he didn't trade for Peavy.

Where's Wilson Valdez these days? Maybe he can close some games.

If things stay status quo for the Phil's in 2014. (Give or take young-nix-Ruiz) then it's the 2nd division for the team

Empty CBP

And wave by by to Raj


Does JW even have ownership of this site anymore? I think it's pretty much all Comcast now.

Wait, was it really said that MYoung would be a Phillie next year?

We can all hope for some great waiver wire magic from Ruben.
Oh wait, what am I thinking?

Whoa! Praise the sun for Google+ sign in--I've been freed from BL exile! This is the poster formerly known as Muuurgh...

I want to apologize openly to Cyclic and the rest of my FREE RUF brethren for being literally unable to post to praise the ascension of our now cleanup hitter, one Darin Ruf. It was a beautiful day.

I think it was two months ago that I tried to contact the staff about why I was unable to post and JW couldn't figure it out. I know for sure it wasn't because of something obscene, so maybe some of the regular posters who haven't been seen here recently are facing similar problems? If so... Google+ is the way to go... (though, I imagine that I could have been viewed as a spam bot because of my constant posting of just "FREE RUF"...)

Anyway, it feels good to be able to post again.

Hugh Mulcahy's 08:18 post not only wins the thread, it might be the post of the year/season.

Maybe Charlie should've used Lidge last night in the 9th. He signed a one-day contract -- might as well have him earn his keep.

So if Papelbon clears waivers can we still get Castellanos for him? /s

If he doesn't clear waivers, do you let the claiming team have him for free to get him off the books for the next 3 years?

Has anyone checked with clout if Kahnle counts as "nothing" yet?

If he doesn't clear waivers, do you let the claiming team have him for free to get him off the books for the next 3 years?
Posted by: jbird | Friday, August 02, 2013 at 09:00 AM

I would. But I seriously doubt Rube would.

If Papelbon wouldn't open his mouth, there wouldn't be that much of a problem. Maybe Lidge can mentor him on how not to be a d0uchebag. Lidge is all class. Even in the worst of times, he always stood up to the media and took it like a stand up guy. Papelbon spouts off and then comes out and blows a chance to win a game.

Closer market's not great next year, but if you could sign Grant Balfour or Edward Mujica for half the price and half the years and spend the remainder on the setup men and other areas of need, wouldn't that be a net positive?
Hard to believe anyone would claim that contract though. You never know I guess.

I see the mouth breathers are writing Papelbon off completely due to a slight drop off. Trevor Hoffman and Rivera don't hit 95 and they both seem to be ready for the HOF.
You must all be right.

Last night's loss made me feel like I was watching a rerun of The Natural - "losing is a disease... like syphilis or the bubonic plague."

Yes, because Papelbon has perfected the use of his cutter and changeup...

I can't get upset because a ballplayer actually says what he's thinking instead of spouting cliches and platitudes. I actually liked Billy Wagner that way too.

I don't think anyone is writing him off. I think people don't like a mouthy closer who blasts the team and then can't do his job.

If you like mealy-mouthed pablum, just go read Cole's comments instead.

Declining velocity for a power pitcher is a bad thing. It usually means some sort of injury. Sometimes it means something even worse, a declining arm. Occasionally a smart pitcher can overcome this by changing the way they pitch. Unfortunately, Papelcrud won't be taking potato salad to the Mensa picnic anytime soon.

clout: I'm not writing him off. I don't like the idea of paying a closer $15m for a losing squad with a lot of holes. I think the salary could be more efficiently used to boost the club's chances.

RT, Corn, bap etc, you've all been feeding the troll. This is my first comment.

I actually think Papelbon should be the longman until he begs to be traded.

clout: if the majority of the board was positive about Papelbon you would have come on here and blasted the "moronocracy" for believing in Papelbon, citing Eric Gagne and Keith Foulke as examples of the transitory nature of the closer "position".

donc - Fortunately, there can be a difference between smart and baseball-smart (see Dykstra, Lenny).
Hopefully, this applies to Pap.

jbird, you should preempt the cloun posts. You did a nice job at 931.

True Bonehead but I don't see it. Papelcrud is a dope but he seems to have other deficiencies as well. We've seen he likes to point fingers and shoot off his mouth when things aren't going well. Not a very admirable guy. He doesn't seem to be the type of guy to overcome adversity very well. Seems pretty obvious that we are about to find out about that hypothesis.

FWIW I suspect clout is also being trolled

"Nix is better than Susdorf"

XBH in July:

Susdorf 1
Nix 0

RT, Corn, bap etc, you've all been feeding the troll. This is my first comment.
Posted by: Jake | Friday, August 02, 2013 at 09:28 AM

FWIW I suspect clout is also being trolled
Posted by: Jake | Friday, August 02, 2013 at 09:42 AM

Interesting that "Jake" refers to a comment made by "clout" using "I"!

Could we have a very talkative sock puppet of clout in "Jake"?


The only thing more annoying that the copycat posts is pointing out the copycat posts. Just don't pay any attention.

I see the cretin name changer is back. The above post about Papelbon isn't me. This site basically sucks now. No control at all, JW not involved any more, the most execrable posts allowed to stand and the posters who brought some real objective insight to the blog, like sophist, long gone.

I don't blame him.

I have a feeling the 2010s will make the 1990s look like the 1970s in Philadelphia.

Don't believe that dope. I love balls! Rub them on me.

the individual using other people's names would be a lot more amusing if (s)he just put "fake" in the name. posts from "fake jake" or "fake clout" i think is an acceptable form of satire, I think "team jake" is kinda funny. Just using someone else's name though is annoying to everyone.

The way he is pitching now he could create a new bullpen spot called the extender

Why can't we just talk baseball/Phillies? I assume we're all adults here, I just can't bring myself to use the word "mature."

BL always shines in the offseason because the fan-weather commenters are gone and the name-calling, etc. is at a minimum. It's just the die-hards talking baseball. It just seems that over the last two years, the in-season posting has gone downhill. It's a shame.

When BL was a smaller community with JW at the helm, it was always an enjoyable experience and really insightful. Each post and comments were better than the last. I logged on in order to educate myself or just talk baseball with informed people. Now, I just don't know what it is.

It might be time to look for a new place to spend my time. Anyone else post on other Phillies related sites that offer anything close to what BL offered in it's heyday?

"I have a feeling the 2010s will make the 1990s look like the 1970s in Philadelphia."

So you're saying they'll be a 100 win team in 3 years, and dominate the NL East for the latter half of the decade?

No. I'm saying that the glory days of 1997 will seem like 1978 by the time this decade is over.

R.Billingsly - I'm a new poster here, but have been lurking for a couple years. I can tell you there's not much out there in comparison to BL.

I believe the trolls will die out in time. Abandonment is not the answer.

What a shock, corporate ownership of a blog ruins it.

So....Ethan Martin is starting tonight... that should be fun.

He's right.

The bad baseball we are watching has definitely hurt the number of posts but the childish ball busting is more to blame in my view. A little back and forth is always fun but this is just a very bitter and ugly place anymore. I think the fact that some of our most prolific posters, even clout, don't post as often as they used to, bares that out. I seriously doubt that many here are no longer following the team, so I have to think it has more to do with the decline in the quality of posters and posts. I always figured it would happen eventually. Lets face it. There are a lot of posters here that probably have no friends. Anybody that argues so vociferously with perfect strangers as some here do, would not be someone that many people would like to hang with. I always wished that the Beer Leaguer meet up at McFaddens had happened. I envisioned the barroom scene from Star Wars with a lot of Utley jersys. Sadly, I think Beer Leaguer is becoming the douchiest place on earth. Of course, I still come here. There is still much to learn here but I get very few laughs whereas I used to laugh my head off all day long.

rbill: "I logged on in order to educate myself"

Same here. Was always a stats fan, but didn't really learn the best ways to find/compare/gather them until coming to BL years ago and seeing the resources and ways people used them to make educated theories about the future.

Now posters come here and repeatedly denounce/argue anything they don't understand with their own perception without any intention of expanding it.

I really hope it's one of the regulars whom I respect because "Mike Warner Brotherz" posting after "Mike Dizney" makes me laugh every time

Agreed Cyclic. That is very clever.

Corporate Blogs Still Suck.

Last night's game was brutal - thank god they are out of contention already. That game would go down in the history if it was a little later in the season and we were within a few games of the division or something.

Also, I can't blame Sandberg for sending Minimart. He was waiving him in as soon as the ball got through the hole, but unfortunately MM is a terrible baseball player in every facet and didn't realize the ball got through for a full second after Ryno was waiving him. His suckitude shines just as brightly in the small things as they do in all the other general aspects of the game.

What this organization sees in Mini-Mart is astounding. No one has ever gotten by with such little talent.

I have to think that even if you got literally nothing in return (sub-optimal, obviously), you could turn around and spend Papelbon's money on Mujica, Crain, and maybe Howell & a 1 year make-good deal for Madson and be in a much better position next year. Am I too optimistic?

Seriously Beerleaguer admins lets get some IP bans going for folks who impersonate others. And lets have the tone of the recaps match what the people posting to your blog actually think--'should be a really exciting series!'=give me a break!

For the record, "fake" Jake's name is also Jake, and other than trolling "real" Jake with the posts about "post from this time is not me" because the other Jake is so whiny and annoying, I have not been trolling nor using other names.

Good move in resting 'Bone. His velocity was noticeably down in Detroit and I believe it when they say he's tired.

Interested to see Martin tonight. Still think long-term he's better suited for the bullpen, but he has good stuff and is tough to hit when he's in the zone. His command has been a ton better in the past month. Atlanta could be a tough matchup for him though if he's falling behind early...which could be the case if he's nervous.

@ 11:04 your trolling has gone from immature to incoherent. Just go away.

Other guy named Jake: Since you're aware that there is another guy named Jake who posts on Beerleaguer (and who was presumably here first), I'm confident that you have it in you to come up with a handle that identifies yourself as Jake, while letting the rest of Beerleaguer know that you're a different guy from the other Jake.

Out of curiosity, Jakes, when does school start in your necks of the woods? Thanks.

My theory is that the Phillies/Amaro have very deep fundamental flaws when evaluating on field performance that end up causing the majority of their mistakes. In no particular order:

#1. Overvaluing of versatility
#2. Ignorance to league wide trends
#3. Assigning predictive value to descriptive stats

These are certainly not 100% truths in every instance, but I believe these fundamental mistakes lead them in the wrong direction right from the start of the decision process.

They think that a player who can be bounced around to multiple positions/situations somehow creates value without actually assessing the true value they generate in a given spot.

They ignore age trends, the focus on OBP, the early development of relief only prospects, and began paying premiums on pitching as the league shifted to a lower run environment.

They routinely look at average, RBI, and weigh older performances equal with more recent to grade players moving forward. I can't speak that accurately here, but nothing they've ever done/said has lead me to believe they focus on contact %, swing rates, batted ball trends, etc.

Is it wrong to miss King of the Bop?

Sad Guy - probably, yea. He was kind of creepy. The cut and past stuff was 1 thing, but his arbitrary interjection of non sequiturs such as "...son of a dirty whore..." were, well, creepy.

It's frustrating enough that the Phils are playing horrible team baseball but the number of stupid posts of late on this site is out of control. Seriously, BL starting banning some of these obnoxious posters.

Let's grow up here and talk baseball.

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