Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Charlie Manuel fired, Ryne Sandberg to take over | Main | After Greinke, Sandberg's Phillies see Kershaw »

Friday, August 16, 2013

Comments

It won't change overnight, if it can even change at all. These players are too set in their ways and willing to accept the mediocrity. Maybe Sandberg will be able to get them to play like an actual TEAM, but I doubt 40 games is enough time to overcome the current clubhouse atmosphere. I could be wrong though.

Either way, I'd like to know when the real architects of this mess will get replaced.

***repost***

    ...He’s clearly one of the most decorative managers in the history of our franchise.

Amaro's completely lost it. If this is correctly transcribed - and I know that others have commented on this - r00b's reference to Charlie as a "decoration" speaks volumes about how both r00b, and the vaunted FO feel about Charlie.

Damn. I suddenly want to rescind my last post, and declare Charlie Manuel John bleepin' McGraw.

I think Amaro was trying to say "colorful" and couldn't find the word. I wouldn't overanalyze it.

ruben calling chollie "decorative" is a malaprop worthy of a leo gorcey award.

I'm pretty sure he meant to say "decorated". He's still a classless (and incompetent) aszclown.

And, another repost:

Charlie is 16th in win percentage among managers with 1,000 wins. He's 31st in winning percentage among managers with 600 or more games in the dugout.

We've seen him every day, we've questioned a lot of his decisions, but in the larger picture, compared to managers league-wide, future and past, he's been very far above average. There are quite a few hall of famers on those lists below him. Attribute that success to whatever you like, but let's not pretend you get those spots on that list with folksy demeanor.

What a bunch of crud today.

And what's this I hear about Charlie becoming an Interior Decorator? That's just crazy, no?

I think not moving Lee at the deadline is a bigger mistake than not moving MYoung.

Charlie is the most decorative and decorated decorator.

clever troll at end of last thread to ramble on some ridiculous post and then use my callofduty url. He used "fvck" quite a few times, when I googled beerleaguer fvck I came up with a bunch of Richard Nixon posts. What a surpise.

eh on second look, there are handful of ppl who all use that spelling, so who knows.

Tonight Darin Ruf tied Delmon Young for walks(14) this season.

He's probably next to be DFA'd then. Delmon was DFA'd at 2.21 RBI/BB

Ruf's a long way behind at 0.92. Needs to stop wasting ABs or he's going to end up with another team. And turn into a solid starter MLB there.

When I read the post lorecore mentioned, I actually thought it was G-Town before I saw the handle.

So yeah, ridiculously inappropriate and homophobic, but a nice impression nonetheless.

I really didn't anticipate this kind of response not only from BL, but from the media as a whole. Even the beat writers are killing Amaro. I believe the conventional wisdom about Amaro just went from "He's inept, but we'll give him another year," to "FIRE HIM NOW!"

This chorus will grow as the team continues to tank to finish out the season (a win total in the low-70s is a probability the way things are shaping up), and the interest in the team will be at an all-time low going into spring training next year. The only two questions that remain:

1) Will Amaro go on a spending spree in an attempt to save his job/rehabilitate his public image, and make the team more 'marketable' heading into the TV deal?

2) Will he be fired midseason, or at the end of the season in 2014?

I would put 60/40 odds on Amaro laying out two ridiculous contracts with no regard for the future of the franchise (because for him, the future is now). My wild card pick is he throws some stacks of money at Ellsbury, then signs Corey Hart and Salty. Halladay also gets a one-year deal with a second-year vesting option. He kicks all of this off by trading Rollins (who succumbs to pressure and drops his 10-5 rights) for salary relief and putting Galvis at SS. Rollins will be another scapegoat for fans blaming the offense on his disappointing season.

He'll also 'remake the bullpen' (as he promised Zolecki today) and pick two of the most expensive guys on the market, overpaying them with multi-year deals. Don't have the list in front of me, but based on the track record, he won't make good choices.

Lee gets dealt next year at the deadline for 40 cents on the dollar. The team finishes around 70 wins again and Amaro is fired during the final week of the season.

This still hurts like hell. Not to excuse that performance but I can't imagine the day this team had. And yes that puts aside its their fault.

I hope Charlie lands a job and I have a feeling DC is it. Close to home, wants to stick it to Amaro

I know this flies in the face of the recent "We Love John Mayberry" party going on here at BL, but here are his stats the last two years:

769 PA, .244/.299/.401/.700, 89 OPS+, Blutarsky bWAR (0.0)

Out of every OF the last two years that has had 750 PAs or more, Mayberry is 68th out of 70 in fWAR (-0.1). DYak is 69th, oddly enough. His fielding value is 59th out of 70. His OBP is 65th out of 70 (again, Delmon comes in right behind him at 66th).

Forget the 'fourth OF' talk. This guy has been getting way more playing time than he should- like, WAY more, to the point where he's hurting the team- and one of the top goals next year has to be to get some OF depth to keep Mayberry from getting more than 200-250 PAs unless the entire OF gets the swine flu. He is not an adequate first line of defense when any one of the three starting OF gets hurt.

Not-so-bold prediction: Kershaw's winless streak vs the Phils ends tomorrow.

Dodgers continue one of the hottest stretches in MLB history and are proof that money does buy success.

Between the Dodgers (disliked them since the Lasorda days), Cards, and Braves, there are a lot of teams I will be rooting against this fall in the NL playoffs.

Cholly was an overall above average manager here but he managed personalities and from '07-'11 his managerial style worked given the talent & personnel he had.

He just isn't a HOF manager nor the caliber of a LaRussa. Not really a slight to Cholly though since I would put LaRussa as the best manager of the last 30 years.

Cholly will be remembered fondly especially because this team won a WS in '08. Amaro is already being eviscerated in part because this team didn't win a title in '10 or '11. I do wonder how Cholly would be perceived if this team had falted in '08 and say lost in the NLCS to the Dodgers instead. Would Cholly be remembered more like Ozark?

Even though baseball playoffs are a crapshoot, winning a championship completely changes the public/media perception of a GM or coach.

Old habits die hard. You can tell Stark still keeps closes tabs on the Phils.

Great piece on Cholly's firing today and the best one I have read by far today. Worth the time to read it:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9574746/the-firing-phillies-manager-charlie-manuel

JP moving up.....

The only way Sandberg is still at the helm next year is if Amaro is fired and the new GM takes pity on him.

Give the "poor Cholly" talk a rest. It was time whether before, during or after this season! I'm not giving Amaro or the players a pass, I'm just commenting on the effectiveness of Cholly as a manager. He was turning into Andy Reid but much more likeable. As for the team, some of these players have to go. Deal the expirers (a few others too!) now before we get nothing for them (do we really want them back), rebuild the pen and live with about 85-90 wins next year while this thing is overhauled. Oh yeah, it is understood that Amaro goes also.

I think they have the manager they want with Sandberg. Naming him the interim manager makes it look a little less like they were just waiting for the right time to push Charlie out and bring him in.

Regardless of the fault for the season and roster, the way this went down was a classic juxtaposition of a gentleman and a d*ck.

"Deal the expirers (a few others too!) now before we get nothing for them (do we really want them back), rebuild the pen and live with about 85-90 wins next year while this thing is overhauled. Oh yeah, it is understood that Amaro goes also."

If you think this team can win 85-90 games next year by retooling a little, you're just as deluded as Amaro.

Well, all you Charlie-hating idiots finally got your wish. Good luck with that.

"I think they have the manager they want with Sandberg. Naming him the interim manager makes it look a little less like they were just waiting for the right time to push Charlie out and bring him in."

Sandberg was the heir apparent going into this season, of that I have little doubt. Unfortunately, the Phillies burst into flames and went screaming over the side of a cliff. Amaro and the front of were probably prepared for mediocrity for the next few years, but they weren't expecting this.

I think RAJ is scared now. He could've waited to hand Sandberg the keys next season, but that would've meant fully committing to him. Instead he's been given 40-something games to prove he can manage a team that isn't a complete embarassment (ie: a team that won't get RAJ fired).

Heidi - I don't know, Hubby. There is still something missing.

Cole - Aw...Baby, I already rearranged this room, like, five times. You're not gonna make me move the couch, AGAIN?!

Heidi - No, Sweetiepie. It's not the couch. It's, um, that corner over there.

Cole - Corner? There's nothing IN that corner.

Heidi - Exactly. We need something there.

Cole - There's already enough places to sit. Enough tables, enough chairs, the three couches...

Heidi - It's just a big ole empty space, though. We just need something to look pretty there. You know: something decorative...

Cole - Hah! I know! I think the piece you're talkin' about just became available!!

RT - That's quite possible! I figured they get to the 70+ win mark this year. Then with an improved pen and some injured players (Revere/Howard/pitchers) back, I think they win 10-15 or more games next season. Look how bad the pen has been and the loss of the regulars play and how they were almost a .500 team. Ok, I am an optimist! Also, I don't think they are as bad as they've shown (maybe Cholly has something to do with that). We'll see.

After being passed over for a promotion at my old company, I had an executive tell me "I'll never understand the personnel decisions people in this company make".

The "fan experience" is awful right now, unless you just like the atmosphere at CBP.

- Talent on the field: combination of some veterans mailing it in, some playing as usual, young players with something to prove, and other players wasting space. Not enough heart. Even less talent overall.

- Television broadcasters: My dislike of TBag has make me appreciate Wheels, and that's pathetic. Murph's segments are awful (I don't blame him for this), and Sarge and TBag together are like nails on a chalkboard. Iceman's comparison of Rube to TBag in the last thread was spot-on to me. I wanted to throw my remote through the TV last night.

- Front office: Rube has to go. Yes, I will admit that I marked out when he traded for Halladay (but then ticked when CL was traded), then when CL signed the contract, and when he traded for Oswalt (my then-favorite of the Four Aces). No one doubted his ability to make a "big splash" move when the stars line up. It's the little moves that he shows little to no ability to make. Wigginton. elmn. His love of Mini-Mart.

- Charlie: 1000 wins, WFC, pink slip. We all knew he would not be back next year, but it sure feels like he's the fall guy for Rube's inability to build a team. Was he the best in-game manager? Of course not. Good luck to the next guy who has to work with this level of heart and talent.

Other than replacing the GM, I can't say I know how to fix the team. But that is not my responsibility. I also admit I lurk here to learn as much as I can from the respected posters.

I can't be a fair-weather fan. But I'd prefer not to relive the late 80's, late 90's, and early 00's. So for the rest of 2013, I just want them to play hard and show heart. And if we just happen to land that protected draft pick...

Twitter Update: As news of Manuel's firing broke yesterday afternoon several players -- including Justin DeFratus, Jamie Moyer, Matt Stairs & Shane Victorino -- composed rather emotional posts about what Charlie had meant to them & their careers.

Ben Revere Tweeted a pic of himself wearing a cheesesteak hat.

Revere should be run out of town for not tweeting praise of his coach who he played for for 3 months. Or, should he be embraced for his love of the Philly cheesesteak ?

Take our poll now!

Lore, wasn't me. A lot of people here spell it fvck, so I was just trying to avoid offending anyone by spelling it out...

Ice that was a long rambling fantasy but OK.
MG: I think if we did a search on just this site of CM we would find that from the beginning his strategy skills were challenged. I think he definitely over stayed his welcome. Although I think firing him was not appropriate. RAJ and CM should have cut a departure deal that was a lot more graceful (let alone took place sooner. And that too is RAJ's fault. At this point while I don't know this works in the FO and who else is available but I think ownership has to seriously revaluate RAJ's work.
As the numbers show the Phils were tanking for several years, unless ownership was fine with the trend RAJ should be let go.

Here is the thing. I never recommended a fire sale. I did suggest that we ought to see what we can get and see if it improves the team.
Often people here worry about how much management spends. I don't its not my money. And besides in this business the more you spend (especially smartly) the greater the value of the team.
Again look at Rollins's numbers they are not so great and his OBP -- a critical measure--sucks. I m sure Galvis is not much of step down from Rollins and he has a much greater upside. But its a little too late to trade Rollins except as part of package.

That Stark piece was good, MG, thanks.

Mandy Housenick with some nice words for Charlie as a person.

http://www.mcall.com/sports/columnists/housenick/mc-charlie-manuel-housenick-column-20130816,0,2562536.column

Charlie Manuel was blessed with considerably above average talent for his 12 years as a manager. Not once did he overachieve with a team, and he won one world series and lost another from a minimum of six seasons with world series-caliber teams (two in Cleveland, four here).

That's marginally OK, but hardly exemplary. It was what it was, and what it was wasn't all that much.

Put him on a team where he has to do more than be a caretaker, and you'll get a disaster.

Lots of extreme positions on Manuel. He was a saint, Ruben Amaro's the devil, why'd they do this to him? Then there's the "who cares? he sucked and, he just got lucky with talent." Neither capture the truth. On those who bemoan the timing of his ouster, I have to ask, did you want him back in 2014? I think the majority of people say no but, are still pissed about the timing. I say, now was as good a time as any. I didn't enjoy watching the guy hung out like he was.

"Charlie Manuel was blessed with considerably above average talent for his 12 years as a manager. Not once did he overachieve with a team,..."


Really, bittel?

I always have though that one way to anecdotally measure that was to look at the Pythagorean W-L of a team and then look at their actual record.

In the 9 seasons he was at the helm (including 2013), Charlie outperformed the Pythag 4 times, underperformed 4 times and tied it once.

So, one could argue that he averaged out to a "zero" over the nine seasons, but the fact remains that the team did outperform their "expected" W-L while he was here.

Compare that to Bobby Cox, who will almost certainly be in the HOF. Cox was one of the worst when evaluating managers by their Pythag.

Oh, and bittel, how would you compare Joe Torre to Charlie? Just askin'...

I'll give you my opinion:


Any manager who wins almost invariably has above average talent.

Any manager who wins 5 straight division titles almost invariably has, to use bittel's words, "... considerably above average talent...".


So why is the fact that managers who strung multiple division titles together, who happened to be blessed with ... considerably above average talent..." - the Charlie, Torre, Cox type of guys - why is the fact that the teams were talented somehow a negative?

Sheesh. OF COURSE winning managers have talented teams.

I'm reminded of something Terry Francona said. He was asked by someone in the Boston media. The sportswriter asked him - and I'm paraphrasing - "Terry, when you were in Philly they used to think you were a dumb son-of-a-bitch. Now they think you're a genius. What gives?"


Francona answered, "I'm the same dumb son-of-a-bitch I was in Philly - just with better players."

awh: I don't get it I think you aptly answered your own question when you quoted Francona: "I'm the same dumb son-of-a-bitch I was in Philly - just with better players."
I think he nailed it.

The pythag theory is flawed, as it assumes the production of runs is manager-independent. It ain't.

Joe Torre clearly got the best results of any caretaker-manager in baseball history. He didn;t miss the playoffs with a any of his teams for more than a decade. UC missed the playoffs on several occasions wen it could easily be argued he had a team talented enough to make it.

And I'm pretty sure Torre could also execute a double-switch all by himself before the age of 63.

Seems to me that the love for Manuel on Beerleaguer is based on the premise that, like "approach," managing doesn't really exist. It's not a real factor on player performance. This despite the (proper) bitching and moaning every time UC would start Mayberry instead of Revere or Nix (when he could still hit) against a rightie.

Second, I think some here cannot stand that an avuncular white guy got sh*tcanned by a young Hispanic GM who hasn't proven he's any good at what he does. Of course, on closer inspection, it looks like the GM's hand was forced a bit by the old guy telling him, "find another manager for the rest of the year if you're not bringing me back." Ruben's mistake was letting Charlie know in the first place.

I see the firing as merciful.

You can't say Cholly was a bad manager and anyone could have won with these teams. That's a real stretch or even a fallacy.

He was a good manager overall here and his core skill set (handling personalities, strong bond with veteran players, even-keeled temperate & personality, long-term focus) served him well with the players he had during the height of the Phils' recent run.

He's not a manager you want for a rebuilding team with younger and/or unproven players nor is he a guy you want with a weaker pitching staff with a shaky bullpen.

As for when he started to lose his effectiveness here, I think that started all the way back in'10 a bit. They had a seemingly endless number of 'closed-door meetings' that summer in June/July/early August. In '11, this team was healthy, started strong out of the gate, and just ran away with the division by the middle of the summer. Didn't matter who managed that team really given their pitching that year.

As for the last 2 years, there isn't a manager in MLB who could have gotten them over the hump and into the playoffs. This year the wheels just fell off, veterans knew Cholly was a lame duck, and frankly probably cared very little or not at all about what he had to say.

WOW so now this has somehow morphed into a race thing...for crying out loud shut up. no one is thinking that bittel

Since when were the 2008 Phillies some unrivaled powerhouse that a donkey could manage to a WS?

Cole Hamels was an ace and Utley/Howard were bombers in the middle of the lineup, with Madson as the lone home grown reliever worth a damn. The rest of the team were retreads that Manuel got the best out of.

Lidge was a flame out in Houston
Werth was a failed top prospect
Victorino was a rule V pick
Burrell was public enemy #1 for years prior
Rollins fell back to Earth after a MVP season
Ruiz/Feliz were terrible at the plate
Brett Myers sucked
Moyer was a punchline
Durbin and Romero were as fungible as it gets

and so on.

The 2008 Phillies weren't even favorites to win their own division(see: Santana, Johan) let alone the WS. Manuel got every ounce of talent out of that team, more than possibly anyone in the world. To say otherwise is idiotic.

"Lots of extreme positions on Manuel. He was a saint, Ruben Amaro's the devil, why'd they do this to him? Then there's the "who cares? he sucked and, he just got lucky with talent." Neither capture the truth. On those who bemoan the timing of his ouster, I have to ask, did you want him back in 2014? I think the majority of people say no but, are still pissed about the timing. I say, now was as good a time as any. I didn't enjoy watching the guy hung out like he was."


Hugh, good post, lots of stuff in it.

Let me give it a swag: Charlie is no saint, but by all accounts he's a tremendous human being universally well-like. (Read the piece that GBrett linked in the last thread about how players seek him out.) Now, Charlie as a person and Charlie as a manager are two different things. I believe in my post above I covered the manager part, in that any "good" manager always had good players.

Is Amaro the devil? No, but he is an organizational tool who, as things seem to be playing out, does not appear to be very good at his job, and firing Charlie was IMHO a way of deflecting responsibility and attention from the piss-poor job he's done the last two years. He may not be th eGM who can rebuild/re-tool this team, and unfortunately, with the way the Phillies operate, it may take a few more years of bad baseball for the organization to admit that.

Did the Phillies FO mishandle Charlie's firing? Yes, and Amaro was part of that. That's why all the derision. I also find it very telling, and very cowardly, that Dave Montgomery hasn't been seen or heard from. What a chickensh8t.

So, Charlie the person deserved better than to be shoved aside in that manner, and I think that's what people are upset about.

It was poorly handled from a PR standpoint by the organization - I guess Scott Palmer just ain't that good at his job - and the fans' reaction to it reflects that.

Did I want Charlie back in 2014? Why not? And I'm being serious. The SABR guys tell us that a manager's in-game decisions are only reflected in the W-L record from anywhere between 2-8 games per season, with 8 being on the very extreme.

If that's the case then isn't it just as, and perhaps more important, for the manager to be a guy that runs a great clubhouse and motivates players (things MG doesn't "get" or respect)? Couldn't a positive and disciplined clubhouse reflect just as much or more in the team's W-L record over a 162 game season? If you don't think so, why not?

Also, if that's the case then isn't the talent that the GM puts in the clubhouse the most important factor, a job that r00b has failed at the last two years.

People are upset because despite Amaro's empty words in the press conference about the subject, there's no responsibility or accountability there.

Are you paying attention Dave Montgomery?

"The 2008 Phillies weren't even favorites to win their own division(see: Santana, Johan) let alone the WS. Manuel got every ounce of talent out of that team, more than possibly anyone in the world. To say otherwise is idiotic."


lorecore, excellent post. But don't expect bittel to agree.


The guy I really feel sorry for in this entire mess is Ryne Sandberg.

He is in a no win situation. Literally. Think bout it. Mark this moment because you heard it here first.

I don't hate many people in this world. And I know I should pity Ruben Amaro Jr. for being so incompetent that he is and will always be a laughingstock. But i really want to punch him in the face every time he says something stupid. That's a lot of punching. How is it possible that the ownership of the Phillies are unaware that they have become a joke and objects of ridicule because of his incompetence. It's not like his stupidity is a secret and we're just now catching on.

lore and awh - great posts

only thing i would argue about in yours awh is saying that i would want charlie back in 2014. this team is going to have to rebuild, or at least, retool for a year or two, and i don't think they will have a legitimate shot at contending next year (unless a lot of things go right, which is possible but not very likely). charlie isn't the best manager for a rebuilding team. now, i'm sure amaro still thinks that this team can contend, so firing charlie is clearly just to save his own job (and so ownership can deflect blame).

"As for when he started to lose his effectiveness here, I think that started all the way back in'10 a bit. They had a seemingly endless number of 'closed-door meetings' that summer in June/July/early August."

They went 39-16 in August and September that year, including a 21-win September with an 11 game winning streak mixed in there. It's probably their best string of play during this whole run.

MG thinks that was 'ineffective' because they had some meetings.

AS, Charlie took over a team of young players in 2005 - a team that hadn't won anything - a team that was still rebuilding, and managed them to 5 straight division titles.

Why do people think he can't do it again?

Yes, those two division titles in 2005 and 2006 are among my favorites ever, awh!

Or else, it could have been that a core of generationally-talented players came of age in 2007, and carried an overmatched nice guy to a good career thereafter.

Jack McCaffery ‏@JackMcCaffery 1h

Charlie: 'I had a commitment here today and I was going to keep it' #Phillies

Jack McCaffery ‏@JackMcCaffery 1h

Huge applause and chants for Charlie at Granite Run Mall

Charlie even signs a photo of himself leaving CBP after being fired. And with a smile pic.twitter.com/68PZi1wqSS

awh - that team had already won 86 games 3 out of the last 4 years, so record-wise, they were far superior to this team (yes, injuries, etc. haven't helped). Charlie did definitely have a hand in taking them over the top.

the big reason is that the current talent level on this team is likely not a high-80s, low-90s win level. While I love guys like Chase and Cliff, they aren't getting "better" at their ages. How many prospects are going to step in next year and make a SIGNIFICANT impact? Maybe in two years, they get Franco or Biddle. But that's in two years (maybe), and there's still not a whole lot outside of them that are sure things (not that they are either). The teams Charlie took over had the core still young and on the rise, and he helped take them over the top. i love charlie but i'm not convinced that he can manage a team like this, where he may need to platoon 2 or 3 positions (definitely 1B, maybe 3B, C, and and a corner OF) and handle a very shaky bullpen. he would have to do a hell of a job making in-game decisions (which most everyone agrees is not his strength) to get every drop of talent (which there isn't a lot of) out of this team.

i love charlie but i'm not convinced that he can manage a team like this, where he may need to platoon 2 or 3 positions (definitely 1B, maybe 3B, C, and and a corner OF) and handle a very shaky bullpen. he would have to do a hell of a job making in-game decisions (which most everyone agrees is not his strength) to get every drop of talent (which there isn't a lot of) out of this team.
Posted by: AS
***********

I completely agree. In other words, he's plainly deficient in basic managerial skills (needing to platoon is too big a challenge?? Can't figure out how to make the right in-game decisions?)

I love Charlie for all he's done and will disagree with anyone who tries to take away his accomplishments.

I will also gladly accept that he came up short in numerous instances and ran his course in Philadelphia. I wanted Charlie gone at the end of the year. I would have probably even been OK with a midseason firing if he was given at least 1 home game where the fans/players knew it would be his last.

The Phillies stole a memory away from their fanbase by not letting Charlie give one last wave to the crowd. Instead they have gave us a press conference at 2:30 on a Friday afternoon.

Yo, new thread!

bittel - don't get me wrong...i think he's still a very good manager. he just has his own strengths and weaknesses, and unfortunately they don't mesh well with a team like this that is in transition. the teams from the "good" years had talent (as does every team who wins or at least contends for a title), and he helped them realize and maximize that talent during the regular season (playoffs, different story, but part of that is due to their nature). this team just doesn't have much talent to maximize right now and (probably) the next year or two.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG