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Monday, August 26, 2013

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I know that BL has long been the home office of small sample size declarations, but shouldn't we wait until Asche has more than 80 ABs? - clout

Since clout wrote off Asche after 0 plate appearances (1 year ago) perhaps he shouldn't get worked up about other poster's sample sizes.

Winning multiple games in a week is nice. I'd forgotten what it felt like.

Reports are stating that Volquez is willing to change his name to Edinson Young.

If Edinson Volquez were under contract beyond this year, he would be exactly the kind of guy (failed starter with good stuff & poor control) who would be worth signing & converting to bullpen duty. But, since he's a FA after this year, what on earth is the point?

I agree, I'd through Volquez into the bullpen mix. I mean if he couldn't put up good #'s starting half his games at PETCO, well, he probably needs to try something different.

When Cliff Lee is being his vintage masterful self on the pitching mound, for one night it almost feels like a return to the golden days of Phillies baseball.

BAP: This is how you "reload," not rebuild.

Yeah, I don't know. I would say Rube is losing me here, but he lost me about two and a half years ago.

I know there's the "New manager bump" and the "The pressure is off bump" to explain things, but it has been much more enjoyable to tune into a game now and as a fan, especially this year, I'll take it.

I'll take it too, Dragon. They had become unwatchable.

More likely, watchable for only a few innings, unwatchable for nine innings. It was akin to watching a TV show where the hero always was getting killed in Act One.

Game winning hits are certainly a good way to endear yourself to the fans. The recent two weeks have certainly been more entertaining.

Just like the end of last year the team (especially the bullpen) appears to be playing better. I again believe it is false hope.

Next year's lineup is pretty much set. The bullpen needs to get a couple more quality pieces.
The big questions will be with the rotation.

Cody Cody Cody has done it again......

since Sandberg is now the manager, I'm reinstituting the Club. All who agree are welcome.

What FA relief pitchers would you guys target?

since Sandberg is now the manager, I'm reinstituting the Club. All who agree are welcome.

Posted by: awh™, Founder, JRoll in the 6-Hole Club |Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 07:53 AM

I disagree, If the way he hit this year is what he's gonna do moving forward, the 6 hole is too high. I think 7 or 8 is better.

I'm with Mike. Rollins' power has utterly disappeared. Until he gets it back, he's a bottom of the lineup guy.

I agree with bap on Volquez - his "stuff" still seems to be there despite the poor numbers - so would seem to qualify as a good candidate for bullpen transition.

In all seriousness, Ruben has fielded such a terrible roster all year, that he basically can't make a "bad move" anymore if you compare it solely to the existing roster.

Every random DFA'd player is still an upgrade over most of the pen and the bench. Ruben basically gave himself freewill to make about a dozen straight trades that "improve the team". Genius.

Volquez would be an interesting signing...if we actually had any control of him going forward.

As such, it's kinda a silly move.

***I'm with Mike. Rollins' power has utterly disappeared. Until he gets it back, he's a bottom of the lineup guy.***

I almost wonder if he's playing hurt...or just old. Sure, age-related decline is expected, especially in mid-30s middle infielders but his dropoff has been precipitous.

Next year could be painful if its just old age rather than some sort of nagging injury.

What FA relief pitchers would you guys target?

Posted by: CS | Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 08:39 AM

All of them.

NEPP: an extra contract year that vests based on plate appearances can present some perverse incentives for both the player and the team. If he plays like this next year, the team is better off benching him for even Galvis. Same offense without the $$$ at this point.

Given it was a lost season, I'm glad the Phils brought up Asche & are starting him at 3B.

Given how horrible M. Young has been defensively (as bad as advertised and then some) and how his offense has really fallen off, this is no way Asche isn't an upgrade next year at 3B.

He'll be $5.5 cheaper too since the Phils were still on the hook for $6M of M. Young's salary.

Same with D. Young. Anybody in RF will simply be an upgrade. Even if Asche is a 1-2 WAR player next year at 3B (average/slightly below average), it's a notable upgrade. Ditto if Ruf or somebody else is a 2-3 WAR in RF.

Volquez

Exactly the kind of guy that I would like Amaro to sign and pull a Chan Ho Park on him.

Sign him to a deal where you tell Volquez will be given to a chance to compete for a starting job in ST but really have every intention of putting him in the pen. If he pitches well in ST, then you put him in the rotation and move him to the pen if he struggles.

"In all seriousness, Ruben has fielded such a terrible roster all year, that he basically can't make a "bad move" anymore if you compare it solely to the existing roster."


lorecore, yet r00b has his job and Charlie got fired?

The FOols really do value loyalty over performance.

OK< I'll defer to Mike G.

"Reports are stating that Volquez is willing to change his name to Edinson Young."


Dickie, the it needs to be spelled "Edins_n Y_ung". (Or "Edins_n V_lquez")


He gets no "o" in his name because he ain't gettin' people out.

MG, then you'd be asking Ruben to think outside the box. He can only hand out large sums of money to pitchers with big names. A conversion of a starter to a reliever is a move made by a winning GM like Gillick.

"I almost wonder if he's playing hurt...or just old. Sure, age-related decline is expected, especially in mid-30s middle infielders but his dropoff has been precipitous.

Next year could be painful if its just old age rather than some sort of nagging injury."


Or, NEPP, and alternative explanation:

He ain't enhanced anymore for fear of the testing.

Just sayin'...

And to be clear, the above is NOT an accusation, but merely wild and unsubstantiated speculation based on nothing other than this writer's wild thought process - which has proven to be in error on many occasions.


But could it provide an explanation?

Anymore it's fair to just assume a guy has been juicing to perform. I really don't even care if these guys use anymore. At first I did but then I took a step back and thought "What do I care? It's not my body. It's my entertainment though."

Everybody who doesn't think Cholly deserved to be fired is missing the point too. He absolutely deserved to be fired given how pathetic the team had performed the last 4 weeks (one of their worst stretches since the late 90s) & his lameduck status.

The only issue was one of timing and letting him finish the season.

Can we attribute Ruiz's recent resurgence to "adderall"?

Charlie absolutely deserved to be fired. Sure he wasn't responsible for the roster he was given but sometimes those are the breaks. The man is old and beaten down. You know how easily I'd roll over if I had to pencil in Michael Martinez everyday? It was only right to let the guy get away from the mess. Let Sandberg do exactly as he is doing now by setting a precedent for 2014 and letting him wade through the dump Amaro has left.

Joe D - The only guy Gillick did that with was R. Franklin and gave up on him midseason.

Gillick is so overrated in Philly and the moves that he actually made. Also got lucky in the moves he didn't make including dumping Burrell for spare change.

It is up there in history now as the same idiots who think the Abreu trade changed the course of the franchise. Anyone who thinks trading a 3-4 WAR player for nothing and then using those savings to sign A. Eaton & acquired Garcia helped this franchise to win in '07 is baffling. Phils win in spite of those moves in '07 and not because of them.

The scouts don't think Asche will last in the majors...

Joe D: " A conversion of a starter to a reliever is a move made by a winning GM like Gillick."

Actually, Ruben is the one who did the Chan Ho deal that was mentioned.

MG: Chad Durbin was converted.

MG, I forgot that the Park move was after Gillick. That's my fault. Gillick probably is overrated but that's to be expected when he actually helps to deliver the ring. At the same rate can we say Charlie is overrated? Is only winning 1 world series with the stars he had in their prime not enough? He also never got it done in Cleveland.

"Gillick is so overrated in Philly"

Thats odd, I didn't know the Baseball Hall of Fame was in Philly.

Amaro will get his too. Just in another year or so. He had another crummy offseason and maybe this team wins 75 games this year.

What will matter though to the FO is the hit in ratings and the fall off in season ticket renewals this year. Another subpar season with a large payroll (which is almost a certainty) be his undoing.

Riddle me this, Beerleaguer: What's the point of a contractual vesting option if the player still gets a payday regardless of whether the option actually vests?

We're probably going to find out in 2015 with J-Roll. As, in the event his option fails to vest, a club option of $8MM and player option for $5MM are created. Given Rollins' attitude with regard to waiving his 10 & 5 rights, does anybody doubt that he'd exercise that player option?

It just seems like the little moves Gillick made to fill in the gaps turned out so much better than Amaro's has. For instance, Gillick plucked guys like Eyre and Romero from relative obscurity while Ruben tries to shove Aumont down our throats to justify that wretched Lee deal.

So did Rod Carew...

lorecore - Good point and an obvious point.

Gillick is talked about as some kind of genius who made shrewd moves that put this team over the top.

He made a couple of really nice moves including the Moyer & Lidge trades and signing Werth (although that was incredibly large) but alot of his major moves were pure busts.

Looking at Gillick's track record across his career and actual results while in Philly, I'd say it's pretty difficult to overrate Pat Gillick. We've got 2 WFC's in 130 years. He was GM during 50% of those.

lorecore, I mentioned this a couple of days ago:

Bastardo and Madson are both converted starters.

Just take a look at their MiL record. AAMOF, Bastardo was called up as a starter (first one was that night in SD where he was hitting 96 on the gun. Adrenalin (sp?) right?

Despite their success with converting both Madson and Bastardo, what other MiL SP have they attempted to convert?

MG, I guess I don't get to worked up about his major moves because they weren't really needed given the core that was in place. The team needed those 1 off moves here and there to push them over the top and he excelled at those. I look more fondly back on Romero and Eyre signings, the Moyer trade than I get pissed off about the Geoff Jenkins deal.

Hint: MOST current MLB relievers were starters in the minors...its rare that a reliever doesnt start off as a MiLB starter.

Joe D - But it wasn't only the Jenkins deal. It was the Garcia trade and Eaton signings. Also a bunch of other crummy moves.

OK, it looks like Rosenberg was a SP in 2011 and earlier this season in LV, but he was strictly a reliever before that.

Besides, the jury is still out as to whether he'll be successful.

Yep, I posted it the other day:

The Phillies' FOols can't even seem to learn from their own successes.

Gillick also extended Lidge during the 08 season...which turned out to be a mistake.

Still, he made a lot of good moves too...something Rube hasn't been able to do at all.

He was able to save face (thanks largely in part to Williams generosity I know) on the Garcia deal by getting Iguchi. I feel like the Garcia oversight was also an organizational flaw with background health checks on these guys which has since been tweaked a little.

What's worse? Extending Lidge or Ruben's crippling extensions to guys like Moyer after 2008, Rollins in his current deal?

Also go back and look at the secondary moves that Gillick made for '06 season. They were almost all complete busts. Ditto the '07 season including Barajas and No-Hit Nunez.

Gillick did a very good job in '07 of making in-season moves to help the team and a nice job in '08 of picking up a few pieces that helped the club. That was by far and away his biggest strength.

Overall though his tenure here as a GM was pretty mixed if you look at the results of his moves overall.

Look, I "get" that many here feel that Charlie deserved to get fired.

Even if I agreed with you, you still didn't address the main point I was making:

If Charlie deserved to go, doesn't r00b deserve to be fired too?

"Bastardo and Madson are both converted starters."

Eh, that doesn't qualify to me. These guys were farm hands who couldn't cut in the majors as SP, so they were moved to bullpen roles, its just the natural progression.

Lately you'll see guys get drafted out of college who already have been transitioned to the pen, but thats about it, most others are failed starters.

Oh and uh what about that Howard extension? That seems to be weighing a little heavy right about now.

"Gillick also extended Lidge during the 08 season...which turned out to be a mistake."


Possibly only because of the pileup at the end of the year!

awh, of course Amaro should be fired but that's not the natural order of things, especially with this Phillies franchise. Do we forget how long Ed Wade was allowed to linger?

Abe Nunez is a first ballot HOFer in comparison to Michael Martinez and Casper Wells.

'07 offseason.

Gillick signed No-Hit Nunez, Barajas, Helms, Alfonseca, A. Eaton, and traded for Garcia.

That is a complete cl@sterfuck of an offseason.

Looking forward to a 2016 post by MG saying "Amaro is largely underrated in Philly..."

Hahahaha that really is a bad offseason but those guys didn't hamper them for that long. Eaton was a 3 year deal. Helms was what? 2 years - $6M?

Those moves were also made with a limited budget before Middleton decided to sack up and open the purse strings. Look at the offseasons Ruben has had with unlimited funds for the most part aside from the luxury tax threshold.

Am I the only person in the world who didn't take Rollins at face value when he said he would refuse any trade?

Everyone says we couldn't have traded him because he said he wouldn't waive his NTC. But a NTC is just another form of leverage. It's something you have to pay for. So you work out a way that either the Phillies or the acquiring team compensate Rollins for waiving his NTC. It happens all the time.

Amaro has made a bunch of poor moves but if this team had won a WS title in '10 or '11 the narrative completely changes on Amaro.

When I compared Amaro to Minaya, that is a compliment.

Amaro hasn't been a good GM here and if anyone thinks I am been an 'Amaro supporter' go back and read the post on here when he got hired. I really wanted Arbuckle to get the job & not 'Golden Boy'

Gillick's tenure in Philly is overrated because the '08 team won a WS title and Gillick promptly retired afterwards. He left radioactive wastelands of franchises in Toronto, Baltimore, and Seattle that had a huge failoff immediately after he left because he left those teams laden with barren farm systems and veteran-laden players long in the tooth.

Contreras was also a major league starter whom RAJ converted to relief. So was Dontrelle Willis, although that experiment failed. Still, that's a 2 out of 3 hit rate. Since RAJ doesn't seem to learn from his failures (Baez, then Qualls, then Durbin), you'd think he would at least learn from his successes. Failed or aging starters are exactly where he ought to be looking for next year's bullpen help. The next RAJ veteran bullpen signing who plays to expectations will be the first.

lorecore, in 2006 Madson was converted BACK to a SP after he had been up a couple of years and pitched well as a RP. that is, he was converted to a RP when he was first called up.

Franco now up to 30 homers and 100 RBI's in the minors this year. Wouldn't mind seeing him come up in September and take a few hacks against MLB pitching. Won't happen because it's audition time for Asche and Franco being there would distract from that.

Gillick's tenure in Philly is overrated because the '08 team won a WS title and Gillick promptly retired afterwards. He left radioactive wastelands of franchises in Toronto, Baltimore, and Seattle that had a huge failoff immediately after he left because he left those teams laden with barren farm systems and veteran-laden players long in the tooth.
------
Hmmm, this kind of sounds like what Ruben is doing for this team now. So are you saying Gillick mentored him well?

*** He left radioactive wastelands of franchises in Toronto, Baltimore, and Seattle that had a huge failoff immediately after he left because he left those teams laden with barren farm systems and veteran-laden players long in the tooth.
***

Of course, he did the exact opposite in Philly and left us with a Top 5 farm system...

Personally, I'd prefer Amaro focus his energy on filling the massive holes in the lineup, the back of the rotation, and the farm system than focusing on what crappy starters to turn into mediocre middle relievers.

"Oh and uh what about that Howard extension? That seems to be weighing a little heavy right about now."


It doesn't look so bad only because of r00b's massive fail in other areas.

It's still a bad contract, and we'll never know if it could have been good because Howard broke down.

My guess is Franco is on the major league roster next year.

Bed's Beard: Playing what position?

awh: "It's still a bad contract, and we'll never know if it could have been good because Howard broke down."

Which is why it's a bad contract, because Rube unecessarily assumed all of the risk on it, by signing him to a huge deal two years before it was necessary to do so.

Jack:
The problem with that analysis is how J-Roll handled the NTC issue. He stated he wouldn't waive them because he wanted to stay in Philly to break franchise records. Invoked in that way, it sounds like he's not playing any contractual games, and no reasonable sum could change his mind.

The way to play that game is the way Michael Young did, stating you won't waive it and then walking back the statement by leaking that you'd consider waiving the NTC to whatever team either happens to be interested in you or that you'd like to end up with.

Why screw Franco over that way? He's barely in AA.

The only way it happens is if Howard blows his knee out in May and Franco is killing it in AAA. Otherwise, they'll likely go with Asche at 3B and Howard at 1B. Franco can't play any other position.

Amaro traded his share of prospects while he was here too.

The system was just so deep (or perceived to be so deep) that it didn't make a huge dent.

Gillick.

Jack, we agree on the Howard deal. At the time, when it was ripped by many here, I posted that we'd have to wait and see whether it turned out "bad" or "good".

I did, however, agree with those who stated that is was grossly premature -because it was.

Juums: Ok. If I'm the Phillies, I'm still trying my hardest to move Rollins this offseason, for whatever I can.

I would rather have Galvis and the $11 million than Rollins right now (I don't think there's really any question about this). Unfortunately, we most likely waited too long and now can't move Rollins because he's been so bad this year.

But Amaro will make it seem like we're "reloading" by keeping Rollins instead of getting both younger and better.

I believe Franco will at least start the 2014 season at AAA. Wonder if he will get invited to Spring Traning.

"What's worse? Extending Lidge or Ruben's crippling extensions to guys like Moyer after 2008, Rollins in his current deal?"

I wouldn't call either the Moyer or Rollins deal "crippling." A crippling move is one which substantially cuts into the team's resources or which begets a series of consequences that makes the team affirmatively worse.

Rollins' contract isn't huge and he's not blocking anyone who's better. It's not a good contract, but it's not exactly crippling. Same goes with Moyer in 2009 & 2010 (and he actually wasn't bad at all in 2010 if you throw out his 1-inning, 9-run start). The Lidge move WAS crippling because it led to two years of bullpen decisions whose purpose was to accommodate Brad Lidge, rather than to put our best reliever in the most important role. Of course, no contract can touch the Howard deal when it comes to being crippling.

There's nothing wrong with trading prospects to improve the MLB team...just like there's nothing wrong with eating bread made from the grain you harvested the last fall. The problem is when you cook up all your seed grain and have nothing to plant the next spring.


Ruben has been first in the pool more often than not and extending a player like Howard when he did was foolish. I get taking care of your guys but it's still a business and he didn't need to sign him then.

At least he didn't go full Pujols on Howard...so there's that.

I guess.

Kinda like saying he only shot himself in the head once instead of three times.

I wonder how hard he went after Hamilton this offseason.

Caveat: The Rollins deal does have the potential to become truly crippling if he continues to veto trades (personally, I think that's a bluff), and if next year is as bad as this one. And the contract would REALLY become crippling if he continues to stink next year & Sandberg/Amaro are dumb enough to give him the playing time necessary for his option to vest.

Ironically, the Howard extension was terrible in another way because its very doubtful that Howard would have taken multiple corizone shots in his ankle in a walk year to play through injury if he didn't have that long-term security. So, the extension ironically was a factor in the Achilles injury which makes the extension look so bad.

~head explodes~

Much like Howard's ankle did in the 2010 playoffs.

I wasn't posting on BL when Howard got his new contract, but I remember clearly having the thought at the time, "Why so soon?

The new tone around J-Roll with Sandberg as manager has me wondering if he will be traded in the offseason, with the trading team picking up his option as part of the 10/5 rights.

It's funny how winning in 2008 has had almost a more negative impact than a positive one. The good-faith contracts that were handed out as a result coupled with the false belief that the core from that team can still win today have this team where it sits right now.

limoguy, the feeling on BL at the time was about 70/30 against the long-term deal...with most saying "why so soon?"

Hopefully, whoever the manager is in 2014 has the sense to bench Rollins if he's still sucking this badly.

I doubt Franco will start the year at AAA, however it wouldn't surprise me if he has a strong spring. He probably will be invited to ST in 2014 though.

NEPP, exactly. Howard would never have played on that bad Achilles if he didn't have security.

So, no job security = no torn Achilles?

The only thing that whole debacle has worked out well for is Ryan Howard's checkbook (and Venetian canals).

Will Sandberg be allowed to bench Rollins and platoon Howard? Those are some of the real questions heading into 2014.

If the front office isn't willing to eat salary via trade than they damn well better start to realize they can't let those 2 affect not only their wallets but the play on the field as well. The glory days are over.

Though its interesting that they're treating Dom with kid gloves now that he's got a sore Achilles...perhaps the medical staff learned its lesson.


It's funny how winning in 2008 has had almost a more negative impact than a positive one. The good-faith contracts that were handed out as a result coupled with the false belief that the core from that team can still win today have this team where it sits right now.

Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 10:42 AM


Not sure I follow you on this one. The contracts handed out after 2008 involved Hamels (3 yrs/$18 mil), Howard (3 yrs/$52 mil), Moyer (2 yrs/$16 mil), Werth (2 yrs/ $10 mil, Madson (3 yrs/$12 mil). Other than Moyer, those are some great deals for 09-11. The problem started with extending Howard in 2010.

***The problem started with extending Howard in 2010.***

The Howard extension and the Hallday/Lee switcharoo 6 months prior were the twin pillars of this travesty.

I consider any hindering contract for a member of the 2008 team that is on the payroll today a good-faith deal, Red. And yes the Howard one is the biggest offender.

The immediate deals after 2008 were fine though Moyer didn't need to be around for 2 years.

Amaro may become too emotionally attached to people to be effective in his job. Couldn't believe how he choked up the day Charlie was dismissed. That was eye-opening for me. I think somebody in his job needs to be relatively unemotional and businesslike.

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