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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

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Daisuke Matsuzaka suffered the loss ...

Not as much as we suffered watching him.

Trachsel would be proud of DiceK's pace tonight.

Cole sympathizes:

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 14m
Cole on whether Dice-K's molasses pace makes baseball enjoyable at all: "No. I'm glad I play it, but I wouldn't be watching it."

I think Bernadina deserves 4 day games off following the night game.

On Bernadina:

I recall a story during which Sam Snead was playing a round of golf with a friend of his who was a real hacker.

After a particularly brutal round, Snead's friend asks: "what should I do, Sam?"

Snead thinks about it and says, "First thing to do is take two weeks off.

"Then, I'd give up the game entirely."

Wise man, that Snead fella.

Love winning. We are rapidly losing draft position here though. I think we have the 13th pick right now. A game back of Colorado for the 14th pick. It's too bad this team waited until it was all but eliminated to start stringing some wins together.

The Phillies 1-2 went 1-11 tonight. Neither Bernadina nor Rollins belong anywhere near the top of the order.

Hell, Bernadina was a relief pitching appearance away from topping Casper's all-time turd. It's not every player who can go 0-6 w/ 3 K & 10 (10!) LOB.

Positive on Sandberg tonight,
he at least had the sense to get Ashe out the game right after his injury, instead of seeing if he could "tough it out"

Sometimes I think if Howard's blown Achilles wasn't on a game ending AB, they would have hobbled him out to 1B to see if he could finish the game.

What's the over/under on how deep into the game Martin goes Thursday?

BAP: You have to try and miss the point to miss it as bad as you are with the Biddle discussion.

"Tight Hamstring" Gillies is hurt again.

So, you're telling me that Roger Bernadina is not a good ballplayer? Really? What gave that away? His career stats? His 2013 stats? The fact that he was released by the Nats? Shocking that he is not tearing it up. He's another in a long line of guys where his one outlier 2012 season takes precedence over the rest of his career.

One more thing: Cole Hamels is amazing.

This time of year is a moral conundrum for me. I want to see the Phillies win, but I would love to see them get a Top Ten protected pick.

I listened to Jayson Stark on 97.5 yesterday. It was shocking. He said that he thinks Bernidina is good enough to start, would rather have Vic/Werth than Hamels/Lee, and that the Phil should re-sign Doc for over $10M.

Lost major respect for him.

I've always had mixed feelings about Rollins; there is no doubt he was a key piece of the winning teams in recent years; but he is really starting to p!ss me off. The only reason for trying to stretch that double into a triple is that he already holds the franchise record for doubles. And what was he doing standing around when that pop-up allowed a Met to take third base? I realize that trying to get a lot of triples is a good thing; but what is his attitude doing to all the young, impressionable guys in the dug out?

I'd rather have over paid for Werth just to prevent all the RF drama we've had. But Shane and Werth over Lee and Hammels? Nonsence.

Oh yeah, definitely, I'm sure in the couple seconds Rollins is simultaneously running full speed, looking to the outfield to judge where the ball and defender is, making sure to actually hit 2b, he is also thinking "I have the record in doubles, I need to try for a triple here".

Rollins is just in denial about his loss of speed. Five years ago he would have have been safe.

Anyone that 'has always had mixed feelings' about Rollins doesn't deserve any attention paid to his arguments. Especially when the argument is 'he's starting to p*ss me off.'

Now you guys know how we (Sox fans) were driven nuts watching Dice K pitch :)

Anyone that 'has always had mixed feelings' about Rollins doesn't deserve any attention paid to his arguments.

Don't get too pretentious or anything. Why can't someone have mixed feelings about Rollins? Can't I dislike the JStroll side, dislike the JPop batting approach now that his power has dissipated but appreciate the hustle on defense?

Big chance for Martin to look good today. Crappy mets team in a fly ball park on getaway day.

"The Phillies 1-2 went 1-11 tonight. Neither Bernadina nor Rollins belong anywhere near the top of the order."


THIS!

" We are rapidly losing draft position here though. I think we have the 13th pick right now."


OK, jbird, I'll bite:

What does the draft look like this year and are they likely to get a significantly better player being 1 - 2 slots higher in the draft - say, 11th instead of 13th?

Oh yeah, definitely, I'm sure in the couple seconds Rollins is simultaneously running full speed, looking to the outfield to judge where the ball and defender is, making sure to actually hit 2b, he is also thinking "I have the record in doubles, I need to try for a triple here".

That's not how it would play out. If Rollins is constantly thinking that he needs x number of triples, when the chance presents itself, he doesn't have to think too hard, he justs goes because his brain is wired for triples. It was very bad judgement.

The other night in our stupid intramural league at work, a guy I know pretty well, got caught at second base by not sliding. Lots of peoople don't slide in this league. Later in the game, he did 2 belly first slides to beat throws. Not because he thought about it for the first time as he was running but because he was embarrassed and it was something he wanted to make up for.

That's a very similar situation, IMO. If Rollins is concerned about setting that particular record, as it would seem, it's a mindset, not a new decision to be made.

awh - They want the protected pick so we don't lose it by signing a FA. But who are we getting in FA that will cost us a pick?

> We are rapidly losing draft position here though. I think we have the
> 13th pick right now.

Actually, it's the 14th pick. The Blue Jays get the 11th pick for failure to sign their 10th pick in the 2013 draft.

Phils are back on a 74-75 win pace. Phils are now 8-5 under Sandberg (only series they lost was to a ridiculously hot Dodgers team) but what has been more interesting is the quotes the players have made:

On Monday:

Cliff Lee is not blaming Charlie Manuel for the Philadelphia Phillies‘ lackluster season, nor is he going to credit new manager Ryne Sandberg for their recent run of improved play.

“We’re grinding it out a little more, just playing hard from the start to the finish,” Lee said. “It’s just more of a get-after-it-and-let’s-go-frame of mind.”

Last Tues by Halladay

"I've exchanged texts with him and obviously I loved him -- he was great," Halladay said. "But from what I've seen, Ryne came in and made some changes and addressed some issues that I think were being overlooked. So from that standpoint, as much as I miss Charlie, I think that Ryne is going to do a good job and I think he's going to bring back a little more of the Phillie baseball style than we've had the last couple of years. We really haven't had that whole team effort and that whole team hustle that I think we've had in the prior years." What were the issues? "Just different things, guys being at places on time, being on the field on time, taking groundballs, taking extra BP, all those little things that nobody thinks makes a difference," Halladay said. "I think he's been very good so far. But again, and I don't want to take away anything from Charlie, we all respected him tremendously and I think he's going to have a choice of what he wants to do next."

I haven't seen a quote by JRoll or Utley.

Also, they are only a game back from the #10 pick and 3 games back from the #5 pick with more than a month to go. More than enough time to secure a top 10 pick.

Sandberg > Cholly at bullpen management and use of the bench. In fact, he's worlds better. Twice now, he has used his best bench bat in an important situation, even though it was still early in the game (Utley a few days ago, Ruf yesterday). That's something that Cholly absolutely never did. And he's willing to yank an ineffective pitcher quickly, rather than waiting until the game is hopelessly out of reach.

On the other hand, Sandberg's lineups have been truly bizarre. I'll cut him a tiny bit of slack because he doesn't have much to work with. But that's still no excuse for batting Bernadina & Rollins at the top of the order, Kratz in the leadoff spot, and Ruf in the 6-hole.

MG - They interviewed both the day Charlie was fired. Both seemed pretty upset.

I hope today's game goes quickly as I have to go into a business meeting at 4:30 PM EDT (3:30 PM here in Texas.) I don't want another seven hour 18 inning game like Martin's last start.

Redburb - I meant since then.

I honestly have no problems with Sandberg's lineups. I think he's just throwing crap against the wall. It doesn't hurt to do that at this point in the season.

"I honestly have no problems with Sandberg's lineups. I think he's just throwing crap against the wall."

If your theory is correct, then he has found the perfect situation with this team. RAJ has certainly provided him with an abundant supply of crap.

Brown is back pic.twitter.com/ToH6ifE883

Sandberg requires at least one stiff in every lineup. Today its minimac.

I don't envy Sandberg his position. On one hand he'll almost certainly lose the interim tag no matter how the next six weeks play out. This gives him a chance to throw anyone & everyone out there so as to be able to say all players had a fair shot. Undoubtedly Sandberg also wants to win more than a few games, if for no other reason than to show players are listening, hustling, etc. under his leadership.

Then again, it would be unfortunate to get too much out of the "new guy" motivation bump, as that would certainly be used by r00b & Monty to validate their mistaken belief that the Phillies can, in fact, compete w/ so many sub-replacement level players -- "See, all they needed was a new manager!" If it goes that route, Sandberg will become Phillies-era Terry Francona in no time.

"Then again, it would be unfortunate to get too much out of the "new guy" motivation bump, as that would certainly be used by r00b & Monty to validate their mistaken belief that the Phillies can, in fact, compete w/ so many sub-replacement level players."

I'm leery of that too. The "new guy bump" is a pretty common phenomenon. But expecting RAJ to recognize that it's unsustainable is expecting far too much.

Considering that RAJ, Utley, and Halladay have all spoken about how they think this is a team that can compete (although it's hard to believe they seriously believe that), I'm not sure there's hope for RAJ deciding otherwise.

where was a the new guy bump when lost the series to the Dodgers at home? For some reason it didn't kick in until the Rockies came to town. that's so weird.

awh: "What does the draft look like this year and are they likely to get a significantly better player being 1 - 2 slots higher in the draft - say, 11th instead of 13th?"

Obviously, jbird's statement was beyond silly. Given the odds against any prospect panning out, the difference between 11 and 13 is negligible. The guy at 13 will wind up being better than the guy at 11 probably at least half the time.

Just reviewing the 11/13 picks drafts from 2007-2011 (5 years), we can get some sense of that.

2007: Phillipe Aumont/Beau Mills: Aumont you know. Mills is a power prospect who never panned out. Edge: Aumont.

2008: Justin Smoak/Brett Wallace: Both somewhat disappointing. Smoak career .700 OPS, but with good power. Wallace career .709 OPS, but disappointing power. I'd call it a push.

2009: Tyler Matzek/Grant Green: Matzek is classic raw velocity power pitcher with no command. Came out of HS so still has a chance to make it. Green has a career .822 OPS, plays lots of positions well and seems destined to be a UT guy for the Angels for the next few years at least. Edge: Green.

2010: Deck McGuire/Chris Sale: McGuire hit a wall in Double A and seems unlikely to pan out. Big edge to Sale.

2011: Geo. Springer/Brandon Nimmo: Too soon to say, but scouts like Springer better far.
Edge: Springer.

Bottom line: Twice the 11 pick was better, twice the 13 pick was better and once was a push. Thge best of the bunch was Sale, picked at 13.

GBrett - I don't think any one of those guys believe that this team can compete for anything. Even the most rosy optimist recognizes that several smart moves are needed this offseason to make the team a legit contender.

"awh - They want the protected pick so we don't lose it by signing a FA. But who are we getting in FA that will cost us a pick?"


Jake, exactly. How many FA's received qualifying offers last season?

IIRC it was 13-14.

What are the chances the Phillies sign one of the top 13-14 FA's?

IMHO, close to zero.

awh - lol @ your new handle

1st overall pick: 87% make MLB
2nd overall pick: 83% make MLB
3rd overall pick: 81% make MLB
4th overall pick: 79% make MLB
5th overall pick: 59% make MLB
6th overall pick: 73% make MLB
7th overall pick: 69% make MLB
8th overall pick: 59% make MLB
9th overall pick: 59% make MLB
10th overall pick: 79% make MLB
11th overall pick: 63% make MLB
12th overall pick: 63% make MLB
13th overall pick: 63% make MLB
14th overall pick: 69% make MLB
15th overall pick: 46% make MLB
16th overall pick: 65% make MLB

Thanks, lorecore. Good stuff. Over how many years?

you can find Avg WAR per player who made the MLB, but its pretty skewed. One superstar can tip the scale.

lore, interesting. 59% of the #8's make it, and 79% of the #10's make it.

Then there's the anomaly between the #5 AND #6 slots, #15 and #16.

In short, it's not an exact science.

Lorecore: So the 14th pick is much better to have than the 11th pick.

Of course, Casper Wells "made MLB," too.

lore: I know where you're going with this, but I would disagree that there's no such thing as a "new guy bump." Canning the manager is the most dramatic means the FO has of telling the team that they're playing like a bunch of losers. I think it CAN spur that team to play better over a short period (either because of the old manager's firing or the new guy's presence). Of course, there is only so much that it can do; the Dodgers are just a much better team than we are. But, before Cholly was canned, we were losing to good teams and bad teams alike -- and we damn sure weren't making late-inning comebacks 3 times in a row.

I fully acknowledge that the "new guy bump" theory smacks of the kind of unprovable psycho-babble that I usually detest, so I'm not interested in having a debate about it. But I absolutely believe that there are cases in which a team has a short-term improvement under a new manager, and the managerial change is the reason. No, I can't prove it, just as you can't prove that Cholly's presumed ability to manage personalities was a reason for his success. But, over the last couple weeks, I've seen you get all misty-eyed about Cholly's managerial prowess, even though pretty much everyone agrees that he was a lousy tactician. That is not unlike my belief in the "new guy bump."

I suspect the baseball gods would not take kindly to playing a month or two of games at the end of a season with the goal in mind of positioning yourself for a better pick in the next draft.

clout, it seems it's also better to have the 16th pick than the 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th 13th and 15th.

Just WOW!

Canning the manager is the most dramatic means the FO has of telling the team that they're playing like a bunch of losers. I think it CAN spur that team to play better over a short period - BAP
-
That actually explains "new guy bump" quite well, no "psycho-babble" required.

bap: I wouldn't really argue with anything you said, as there is no way either of us can prove each other right/wrong - but there is one thing that I think is BS:

"we damn sure weren't making late-inning comebacks 3 times in a row."

Disagree with that completely. There are so many little things that could have happened in each of those 4 games (yes they had 10(!) tries to walkoff a 4th nite in a row but failed under Sandberg) that would have changed the outcome that are so far removed from who was managing the game. Impossible to connect the two.

Yo, Nuevo thing!

That's a statistical fallacy called data snooping, to look at a set of data and pull out a hypothesis from it (i.e., look at draft pick rates and proclaim that the 14th pick is better than the 11th).

I've been wondering how much of the Phils' recent run is simply because they were due for such. As, every year, even the worst teams in baseball put together a streak where they catch all the breaks they need to string along a dozen game hot stretch. Maybe a new skipper was what was required for them to put everything together and break off a run of good baseball. Or maybe it had nothing to do with it. Impossible to tell one way or the other.

I also wonder how much of their recent streak is simply the pendulum swinging the other way with regard to their horrid 20-25 game skid after the ASB. As, while the Phils were never really a contender and have never really been a .500 team save luck of the draw, they also are not the hapless 65 win team they were playing like when they went 4-21. (Or whatever their exact abysmal record was.)

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EST. 2005

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