Phillies

Transactions & Such

Winter leagues

Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Hamels the star as Phillies bounce back vs. Mets | Main | Phillies crushed before Sandberg's return to Wrigley »

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Comments

bap: I wouldn't really argue with anything you said, as there is no way either of us can prove each other right/wrong - but there is one thing that I think is BS:

"we damn sure weren't making late-inning comebacks 3 times in a row."

Disagree with that completely. There are so many little things that could have happened in each of those 4 games (yes they had 10(!) tries to walkoff a 4th nite in a row but failed under Sandberg) that would have changed the outcome that are so far removed from who was managing the game. Impossible to connect the two.

clout/awh: just posted the draft info and link as reference for posters debating, not saying X pick is better than Y or anything of that sort.

Negadelphia comment and prediction:

I'm looking forward to Brown blowing out his Achilles today and ruining any chance they have of being a .500 team next season.

awh analysis:

1. Michael Young, 3B AAAA-MLB player now
2. Kevin Frandsen, 1B AAAA
3. Chase Utley, 2B MLB!!
4. Domonic Brown, LF MLB!!
5. Carlos Ruiz, C MLB!!
6. Darin Ruf, RF MLB!! (so far)
7. John Mayberry Jr., CF AAAA
8. John McDonald, SS AAA
9. Ethan Martin, P ?????

I like Ethan Martin today, even money. Utley, DOM, Ruiz, Ruf is a decent meat of the order.

When do we get to the point where we admit Sandberg isn't "throwing crap against a wall" in his lineups? he's quite consistent. low OBP guys who seem to run the bases well hit 1-2.

Why not Young, Utley, Ruiz, Brown, Ruf, Frandsen, Mayberry, McDonald?

Seriously, why would Frandsen (.211/.271/.285/.555 vs. RHP) be hitting 2nd against Torres?

Anybody?

Just baffling lineups.

"low OBP guys who seem to run the bases well hit 1-2."

Have you ever seen Michael Young run before?

From the last thread:

I've been wondering how much of the Phils' recent run is simply because they were due for such. As, every year, even the worst teams in baseball put together a streak where they catch all the breaks they need to string along a dozen game hot stretch. Maybe a new skipper was what was required for them to put everything together and break off a run of good baseball. Or maybe it had nothing to do with it. Impossible to tell one way or the other.

I also wonder how much of their recent streak is simply the pendulum swinging the other way with regard to their horrid 20-25 game skid after the ASB. As, while the Phils were never really a contender and have never really been a .500 team save luck of the draw, they also are not the hapless 65-win team they were playing like when they went 4-21. (Or whatever their exact abysmal record was.)

" There are so many little things that could have happened in each of those 4 games that would have changed the outcome that are so far removed from who was managing the game. Impossible to connect the two."

Well, yes. I was using those games as examples of their more inspired recent play. Anyway, I definitely don't want to wage a debate in which my argument is, "I believe this but can't prove it." So, on to new topics.

jack: i said *seem* for a reason.

bap: agreed. and one point of clarification, I am plenty OK with Charlie leaving. My quarrel was the timing of it and not allowing a final salute for the home crowd. I also think Sandberg end up mimicking much of Charlie's mistakes in the end. They don't strike me as much different managers.

I think bap's point was that, earlier in the season, being down 3+ runs meant the game was over.

MLB rankings for the Phillies, updated through last night.

Starter ERA: 20th
Bullpen ERA: 26th
Runs scored: 27th
OBP: 27th
Defensive efficiency: 25th

Aha - looks like Ryno agrees with me - look who's NOT in the lineup today - Jimmy (it's all about me and my records) Rollins.

In case you don't like ERA (because it's double-counting the bad defense), here's where they rank in xFIP:

Starters: 15th
Relievers: 28th

So the absolute best thing you can say about this team is that it's starting pitching has been average.

Woo woo!

I also think Sandberg end up mimicking much of Charlie's mistakes in the end. They don't strike me as much different managers.

While it's too early to make any definitive declarations on the matter, a few of Sandberg's moves have struck me as being very un-Charlie-like.

(1) 14 games, 14 different lineups. Charlie would have run out the same lineup the game following his next win.

(2) PH w/ Utley early in a game to take a chance at breaking it open. Charlie usually saved the best players on his bench for late-game opportunities which often didn't present themselves.

(3) Bernadina leading off. Note: I'm not saying I like this move, I'm just saying it's different. Under Charlie it would have remained Rollins game in & game out.

"clout/awh: just posted the draft info and link as reference for posters debating, not saying X pick is better than Y or anything of that sort."


lore, understood. Wasn't really commenting on your post directly, but on the thought process that some here have about why it's so important to have a "protected" (Top 10) pick.

It certainly seems better to be able to PICK higher, and except for the anomalies I pointed out the evidence supports that - but it is by no means certain that a team will get a better player by picking in the top 10. The top 5 or 6, OTOH, seems to be where you want to be if securing the best draft pick is the goal.

As for the "protection" of the pick, I suppose that's helpful, but as I mentioned on the last thread:

A) how many FA's were extended QO's last year?
B) Those players receiving the QO's are probably the best players available and therefore would be the most expensive to sign, and
C) with the Phillies' sunk costs, what's the chance that they'll open the checkbook to sign one of the players receiving a QO?

My answer to "C" is: Close to zero; therefore, having the pick "protected" offers little value to the Phillies.

So, in analyzing the data you posted, it seems that getting into the top 6 picks offers real benefits as to the available players, and any lower than 6th it becomes less certain that the guy picked say, 8th, will outperform (meaning: make the Show) a guy picked lower.

Aha - looks like Ryno agrees with me - look who's NOT in the lineup today - Jimmy (it's all about me and my records) Rollins.

I figure this is a result of the combination of day game after night, & Jimmy appearing to have tweaked something late in yesterday's game.

awh: I don't trust this front office at all not to make a stupid decision and sacrifice a first-round pick for a free agent signing. I think the protected pick would be very important.

I agree with you that whether it ends up being the 11th or 13th pick is not particularly relevant. The difference between the 11th pick and the 10th pick is pretty big though.

As I posted in the last thread, looking at a data set (like draft pick success rates over the last however many years) and then coming to a hypothesis afterwards (i.e., the 13th pick is as valuable as the 11th) is a statistical fallacy known as data snooping. It's wrong.

"(2) PH w/ Utley early in a game to take a chance at breaking it open. Charlie usually saved the best players on his bench for late-game opportunities which often didn't present themselves."

This is the biggest difference I notice. He also did it yesterday when he used Ruf to pinch-hit for Pete Orr in a 2-1 game in the 5th inning. Cholly would have either used a stiff like Frandsen or McDonald or, more likely, would have just let Orr hit. It is 100% certain he would not have used Ruf. Like literally 100%.

Exactly...having the 11th or 13th pick is meaningless...having the 10th and the ability to sign a top FA is key...however did all the top 10 sign this year or does a team get a comp pick in 2014? If that is the case, we'd have to have the 9th worst record or we'd end up like the Mets last winter where they didn't get a protected pick despite having the 10th worst record in 2012.

Frandsen career in the two-hole:

.270/.334/.383/.718

Career against Carlos Torres:
1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000

Seems like a good spot for him.

(1) 14 games, 14 different lineups. Charlie would have run out the same lineup the game following his next win.
*******************************************

Feels like he's testing things out to me.

In case anyone cares, Volquez has signed with the Dodgers.

I wonder if this play had anything to do with Rollins not playing today:

Feels like he's testing things out to me.

Agreed. We'll see how Sandberg handles slumps -- both individual & team -- later on down the line, but for the time being I welcome the shake-up. Patience is sometimes a virtue, but Charlie had way too much of it. I'd like to see Sandberg strike a better balance between giving players a fair shake, & not being afraid to make changes when they're clearly needed.

Jack and NEPP, I understand and agree that it's "preferable" to have a protected pick...

and I understand Jack's mistrust of 'r00b and the FOols' (rat's).

But here's Heyman's list/opinion of the top 50 FA's:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/23365656/freeagent-preview-negotiations-for-top-prize-cano-could-bring-some-drama


How many of those guys do you really think will get QO's (which would mean losing the draft pick), and of those guys, how many fill a need for the Phillies that they couldn't fill by signing one of the guys unlikely to get a QO?

Granted, it's not an exact science, and I understand not trusting rat's, but IMHO I don't think having the pick protected will make a difference this season - though it's always preferable to pick higher and have greater choice.

Jake - If that play had something to do with Rollins not playing today, then Sandberg is onto something. That was a lackadaisical, lazy play all the way.

Rollins was taking a nap at short. Sickening play. There is somewhere for every play to be on every play. And a player as smart as Rollins knows where he was supposed to be. That play made me long for the days of non-guaranteed contracts. He would have been a Giant or Padre by midnight.

"As I posted in the last thread, looking at a data set (like draft pick success rates over the last however many years) and then coming to a hypothesis afterwards (i.e., the 13th pick is as valuable as the 11th) is a statistical fallacy known as data snooping. It's wrong."


Jack, I'm not sure you state the hypothesis correctly.

One could state it thusly:

"Based on the available evidence and the track record of MLB front offices in the draft, it has been NO LESS valuable to have the 13th pick as opposed to the 11th."


As I mentioned above, drafting higher and having greater choice does in theory and statistically offer some additional value, but based on track record and practice in a large number of cases that value is never ever realized.

To do a real complete analysis one would have to actually get into minutae (sp?) such as WHO was in the FO at the time the pick was made, WHO did the scouting, WHO made the draft decision....etc.?

As long as he's actually benched for the whole game and maybe even another full game, the message might get through...if its the UC special where he ends up PHing, there's no point to bench him.

Utley seems to be squarely in the midst of his annual late-season tailspin.

"Why can't someone have mixed feelings about Rollins? Can't I dislike the JStroll side, dislike the JPop batting approach now that his power has dissipated but appreciate the hustle on defense?"

Please explain the 'J-Stroll side' of things from 2000-2011, and please provide more of an example than 'That one time he didn't run out a fly ball.'

By and large, those who have 'mixed feelings' on Rollins will cite the whole 'laziness' false narrative that has emerged over the past few seasons. No, it isn't really worth acknowledging.

frandsen executes the rarely seen "correct" way to slide into 1B.

c'mon chooch, focus.

anyone else's TV f'in up?

Yeah, my tv was also crazy for a while--glad to know it was Comcast and not my set.

Ruf slump

Spoke too soon. Another broadcast hiccup. Must be all the extra equipment being used to beam the game to the tens of thousands watching on the beach in AC / cough

Pathetic

Torres has settled down nicely!

And that was another example of what is rapidly becoming the archetypical Darin Ruf AB: Work the count 2-0, take the hittable fastball, foul-off the next pitch, and then swing through the moving pitch low and away.

It's getting depressing to watch, in all honesty, because you know the AB's over when he takes the 2-0 strike.

Hopefully Martin doesn't hit a wall around 80 pitches today considering he only went 2/3 IP last time out

How Sandberg is dealing with Rollins is very interesting. Calling him out to the media (Rollins does better as a situational hitter) as to why he is in the #2 spot.

I am wondering what Sandberg saw in the clubhouse while Charlie was managing because it appears Sandberg has his eyes focused on Rollins.

Not sure if it means he wants Rollins to undermine Rollins as a leader, have him take a different attitude in the clubhouse, wants to see if he can improve/be coached, or annoy Rollins so he will accept a trade in the offseason.

Someone let the dog out, please.

six straight strikeouts? Remarkable.

If nothing else, I'm looking forward to Ethan Martin's inevitable transition to the bullpen.

frandsen executes the rarely seen "correct" way to slide into 1B.

It drives me nuts when guys do it and you hear announcers -- pretty much across the board -- say that there is never a reason to slide into 1B. There is absolutely a reason to slide into 1B, and that was it.

Utley is in the midst of one of his prolonged "total crap heap" spells. It hurts to watch.

Tipping of the cap, in progress.

Billingsley, fair point. On the other hand, they are probably just exaggerating. If they said 'there is almost never a reason...', I'd agree. It drives me even more nuts when I see guys slide for no reason at all, and the announcer says something stupid like 'he slid in to try to beat the throw...' Augh!!!

Good to see Dom still ably filling Howard's shoes in the LHB Who Swings At Pitches That Make Him Look Silly department.

TMac trying to talk up Will Venable to sell home game tickets is one of the saddest and douchiest and obviously "shill" things I've heard.

"The Wall" doesn't seem to be ever very far from young Ethan Martin.

70+ pitches through 3.1 IP...he's gonna be a solid reliever

So where does Martin end up in the pen next year? 8th inning guy?

If Martin doesn't have "RELIEVER" written all over him, I don't know who does.

76 pitches through 3.2 IP is usually a red flag, but the fact he's notched 8 K's go a long way towards explaining it.

But yes. For two years there's been a distinct lack of a guy with plus stuff who can go more than one inning in the BP. Martin'll plug that hole rather nicely.

An ability to be used effectively in multiple, or even across, innings is a skill which has consistently eluded Bastardo. I'm hoping Martin can fill that void.

Where are my posts going?

Ok, that one got through.

Where are my posts going?

Beerleaguer Purgatory.

Ruf continues the magical mystery tour. Babe Ruf with nobody on; Travis Lee with RISP.

I hope Ruf's recent play is a slump, rather than his transition into a true Phillie.

At least he stopped taking so many damn Walks...that was getting old fast. Strikeouts are much more useful.

The Good News: Mayberry's out of the game.

The Bad News: Bernadina's in the game.

Utley could use a day or three off.

Bench Utley

Another Ruf strikeout, but a much better AB overall. It's hard to imagine that good things won't start happening (or start happening again) if he keeps working seven-pitch PAs.

His defense, sadly, remains a work in progress.

Utley could use a day or three off.
Bench Utley

At least we have potentially 5 more years of Utley at potentially extremely high dollars. No way that deal was a mistake.

The deal was a good one and still is...its not as if he's going to come close to vesting those years unless he's playing and healthy.

Bohica.

That SB was just sh!t all around...terrible release/throw by Chooch and terrible tag attempt by Utley.

Every single game I've watched post-all star break, Chase Utley has played like absolute garbage.

Maybe Sandberg needs to call out Utley when addressing the media.

His defense has dropped off a lot it looks like. May just contribute that to the entire craptastic season though.

NEPP: The deal itself isn't terrible, but I still believe it would have been better to make a qualifying offer & let Utley walk.

That was some bunt single attempt.

If the score holds, the A's are about to finish off a 4-game sweep of Detroit with a win over Max Scherzer. Impressive stuff.

The Utley deal will work out at least as well as the Howard and Rollins deals. The Halliday deal will be sweet too.

A couple of random statistics to remind all of us that Darin Ruf, even when he's struggling, does things that this club needs and give an iota of something to look forward to in the future:
Top 5 MLB OBP Leaders:
2013 Miguel Cabrera Pitches Per PA: 3.69
2013 Joey Votto Pitches Per PA: 4.14
2013 Mike Trout Pitches Per PA: 4.14
2013 Shin-Soo Choo Pitches Per PA: 4.20
2013 Joe Maeur Pitches Per PA: 4.25

2013 Darin Ruf Pitches Per PA: 4.20

Murphy is having an okay game.

BAP - In Detroit, no less

I find myself reminded of the following classic sports exchange --

Reporter: "Coach, how do you feel about your team's execution?"

John McKay: "I'm in favor of it."

Was half-listening, but I think Wheels just said, "Phillies are having one of those inept offensive days."

Does he mean season?

"Reporter: "Coach, how do you feel about your team's execution?"

John McKay: "I'm in favor of it.""

I wonder if we'd still be on the hook for Howard's salary.

It's been a while since I took Contracts, but I'm fairly certain that death of a party can be used as a justification for nonperformance of a contract.

The bigger question is what you'd use the $150MM or so in payroll that opened up if you killed everyone on the twenty-five man roster.

Just your classic Phillies "Day Game/Getaway Game" effort

Ruf ain't right

The way the Phillies operate someone could kill Ryan Howard & the team would claim he's "banged up a bit", but it's "nothing serious". You know, prop that corpse up on the bench for a few games, but def. don't put it on the DL.

At least we're not getting shutout anymore...so there's that.

"I'm fairly certain that death of a party can be used as a justification for nonperformance of a contract."

I don't think that applies to MLB contracts because: (a) the CBA would trump general principles of contract law; and (b) these are guaranteed contracts. If a player gets injured & has his career cut short 3 years before his contract expires, he still gets paid in full. How would dying be any different?

I actually looked this up under the CBA once, but I don't remember the details. I do vaguely recall that it's covered & that it calls for some sort of payment plan to the player's family -- though it may not be 100% of the contract amount.

Of course, insurance would probably kick in, so the team, itself, probably wouldn't be on the hook.

Despite going down 0-2 on a pair of pitches that should've been driven, well done by Ruf to salvage the PA. That ball carried to the warning track, much to the apparent surprise of the RF.

Pete Orr, everybody.

Shockingly, Martin once again dominated early and then face-planted on the second time through the lineup. Can we stop already with this charade of pretending he's a starting pitcher? Splits by times through the lineup:

1st: .208/.278/.292, 4.2 K/BB
2nd: .316/.409/.605, 1.0 K/BB
3rd: .368/.500/1.000, 1.0 K/BB

He's striking out 39% of batters faced during his first trip through the order. That is a dominant late-inning reliever waiting to happen.

young is even more slow footed at 1B than 3B. His dives are just falls to the ground standing in place.

Gtown, make a movie about it. "Weekend at Howard's"

Man, the Mets' guy loves playing that mortal combat theme.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

SHOP CSN


Advertisements


Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG