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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

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Repost from earlier thread:

Just saw tonight's lineup... YAHTZEE!

OK, it is time for tin foil hat theories about why Sandberg keeps trotting out ever more gruesome lineups.

I guess that walk Asche drew yesterday didn't sit well with Rube.

GTown, good post at 4:36 I the last thread!

Ryno must be expecting a lot of Kratzenjammers.

The reluctance to bat Ruf above 6th astounds me. He seems quite unflappable. He's handled the bouncing between positions quite well, for as much as I can tell. Maybe it's to give Sarge something to talk about -- Ruf not gitting his ribbies and how he has to hit better to git those ribbies and then he'll be a complete player.

They should DL Brown and get him ready for next season.

1) Roger Bernadina, CF Fast guy bats first
2) Jimmy Rollins, SS Used to be fast, used to be able to hit
3) Chase Utley, 2B Best hitter bats here
4) Erik Kratz, C Big guy?
5) Michael Young, 3B Used to be able to hit
6) Darin Ruf, LF We'll see
7) Kevin Frandsen, 1B Has to bat somewhere
8) John Mayberry Jr., RF See above

This lineup did score 9 runs on Sunday (fwiw)
VVV
Bernadina
Rollins
Young
Kratz
Ruf
Asche
Frandsen
Mayberry

..but Asche had a go-ahead 2-run double off a tougher lefty, why the benching?

Repost:

Erik Kratz career RBI: 50
Darin Ruf career RBI: 29

Okay, that checks out.

Batting Ruf 6th? Behind the human double-play? Sandberg is actively hurting my fantasy baseball team.

From last thread...

awh: Yeah, ok, great. You're not going to find an argument from me that Amaro stinks and should be replaced. I've been saying that forever.

So I don't get what your point is? That we should just ride it out being terrible until it gets so bad that they have to fire Amaro, that he shouldn't even try to rebuild because he would be so terrible at it?

I mean, I think that's what's going to happen, sadly. But I'd like to see something different, wishful thinking as it might be. If you ask me what the team should, regardless of who the GM is, the answer is easy: rebuild.

Darin Ruf wRC+ = 142
Erik Kratz wRC+ = 78

Among active players, top 3 OPS against lefties this season on the team (with more than 40 PA):

Ruiz
Mayberry
Frandsen


So of course one doesn't play and the other two hit 7th and 8th. Really brilliant stuff from the new manager.

he shouldn't even try to rebuild because he would be so terrible at it?
-
In short, yes.

Edmundo, here are Ruf's OPS, with the obvious SSS caveat:

Batting

2nd - .000, 1 PA
3rd - .200, 5 PA
4th - .929, 20 PA
5th - .877, 95 PA
6th - .809, 52 PA
7th - 1.371, 36 PA
8th - ...........0 PA
9th - .583, 4 PA

Guys, what's this wRC+ and OPS stuff? I already posted the pertinent numbers.

But Cyclic, you erred in not ending your post with "Production™"

Erik Kratz: 1.438 RBI/BB
Darin Ruf: 1.118 RBI/BB

OK, it makes sense now.

I know WIP gets mocked all the time here, but I hadn't really listened to the station much since moving to the west coast.

When I was home last week, I had it on and I actually heard one of the hosts talking about how the Phillies would be okay next year when they had "The Big Piece" back. "That's why they call him 'The Big Piece'. And he actually said something like, "Who else is gonna knock in 100 runs?"

It was excellent analysis.

I've been Kratz's single greatest champion but even I would love to hear Sandberg's explanation for batting a .213 hitter and .385 slugger cleanup, and a .532 slugger 6th. I don't even think Cholly ever did anything that bizarre. And he has done it twice now.

Jake: But he's also been terrible at "reloading." So why do you trust him to do that?

I mean, look. We're all in agreement here that Amaro is awful and should be fired. Right? Is there anyone left on this site (or generally who doesn't think that?

Now let's imagine you had a competent GM. What would you advocate then?

@BAP, b/c Kratz has got the turkey bacon hook-up, duh.

Easily the worst lineup of the season. Did they lobotomize Sandberg last night?

Easily the worst lineup of the season... thus they will score 10+ runs tonight.

I really hope Wells can be ready for next season. Jack and company seem to want everybody gone.

Going to the game tonight with my girlfriend. She already thinks I spend too much time on here. This lineup is actively hurting my justifications of fandom.

If Charlie had used these 8 guys, it would have looked like this:

1) Jimmy Rollins, SS
2) Kevin Frandsen, 1B
3) Chase Utley, 2B
4) John Mayberry Jr., RF
5) Michael Young, 3B
6) Darin Ruf, LF
7) Erik Kratz, C
8) Roger Bernadina, CF

So, pick your poison.

Jack - Rube won't destroy the franchise if he keeps "reloading" with retreads. He can and will destroy the franchise if he attempts a full-blown rebuild.

Hey, at least keeping Michael Young around means he gets to start instead of Cody Asche.

Because that makes sense for this franchise going forward.

How about me having a three-way with a cowgirl riding kangaroo and godzilla sitting on my face!

I have sex with dolphins for a living. I make minimum wage!

Disregard that fake post, I would never two time Mothra.

I continue to be bewildered as to how Jake can have no trouble at all entrusting RAJ to retool -- even after he completely screwed it up 2 years in a row -- yet be totally opposed to rebuilding, because he doesn't trust RAJ to do so.

Hey, at least keeping Michael Young around means he gets to start instead of Cody Asche.

Because that makes sense for this franchise going forward.

Posted by: Jack


~~~


Have any of the beat guys asked about this? Maybe the Phillies are hoping he has a really good stretch of 4-5 games at the last minute so they can finally move him. Not that a 4 game sample size would convince anyone he's worth much more than right now.

"Retool" in 2014 = hope Rollins/Howard turn back the clock

It worked with Utley this year...

Jake – handles in-coming calls for Mr. Silverman, the phony sports agent ("Silverman baby" track from (The Jerky Tapes) and "Big Hock" track from the Stop Staring at Me! album) (voiced by Johnny Brennan).

Jake – a truck driver with a penchant for speed and stunts from the track "Hot Rod Mover" (from The Jerky Boys 1 album), (voiced by Johnny Brennan).

The beat guys have been silent on whether they're looking to move Young or Chooch, who are now a week away from being gone in the offseason for nothing.

BAP - If you think I have no problem at all with RAJ retooling, you haven't been paying attention.

r00b is the Catch-22 in all of this. I don't trust him to reload/retool/rebuild -- whatever you want to call it. On the other hand, I also think it's a waste to continue down this same path & essentially do nothing. Unfortunately, it probably won't matter which tack the FO takes. My heart tells me the situation doesn't have any realistic chance of improvement until the current GM is gone.

I am a no talent ass clown.

Jake, bap and Jack don't always pay attention.

Let's say Amaro was replaced with a competent GM tomorrow.

I would still want that GM to rebuild.

Every older Phan (60-90ish years of age) I see in the neighborhood or at work tells me that they will can Rube at the end of the season. My father, who has been a Phan since the 1950s and his neighbor who has been a Phan since before then expect it as if it is a 100 % guaranteed. Is there anybody here who honestly feels that way?
I would like him gone but don't bank on it.

I think a good GM can successfully execute a phased rebuild.

By phased I mean that in the midst of rebuilding the organization, the team will still be watchable and maybe even have a fighting chance at a playoff berth

Let's say Amaro was replaced with a competent GM tomorrow.

I would still want that GM to rebuild.

Agreed. The system needs to be rebuilt from the bottom up.

M. Young starting at 3b really pissed me off a couple of reasons. Is this Sandberg's decision solely or does he have some dictate from the FO to keep playing M. Young regularly?

There have been a number of things done the past year or so that are mind numbingly stupid that when the manager or GM can't even come up with a rationale/answer for them when asked?

I have serious issues, feel bad for me :(

Hrm, a phased rebuild?

Accomplished by acquiring players like Delmon Young, Michael Young, waiting far too long call up Darin Ruf, acquiring virtually zero starting pitch depth just in case your 36 year old starting pitcher with recent serious shoulder issues doesn't hold up, and not showing any ability to build a bullpen that is either top heavy or deep.

Yeah, this guy knows how to retool.

I feel like some are suggesting the solution is that Amaro should be buying lotto tickets that have a 1 in 5 chance of hitting instead of 1 in 10. I guess it's a start.

r00b?

tOOl or re-tOOl?

Fatalotti - Obviously, RAJ is not the "good GM" referenced in my 6:35 post.

Jake: Since everyone keeps asking me for specifics, I'll ask you.

How would a good GM execute a "phased rebuild" that makes us competitive next year without sacrificing anything for the future?

Are the same posters who are complaining about tonight's lineup the same posters who want this team to rebuild? A crappy lineup means less wins. It means a top ten protected pick.

Jack - By building primarily through the draft, and trading from areas of depth.

Jake: How does "building primarily through the draft" make us competitive next year? What does that even mean?

I support building through the draft (doesn't everyone?), but I also support getting talented young players and clearing salary by trading veterans. I want to rebuild.

This is a 75-win team you're watching on the field. How are you adding 15-20 wins to this team next season by "building primarily through the draft"?

As far as being competitive next year, the GM should focus on revamping the BP, and making several depth signings to compensate for inevitable injuries.

Jake, I don't think anyone's calling for a complete Astros-level demolition of the team.

But there are certain players on this team that don't figure to be part of the next competitive iteration of this team.

If we could have gotten players for them in them in the recent past that did figure to be part of that next iteration, why didn't we?

Jack-- Howard's 40+ HRs will help, won't they?

Jake, the fixing the bullpen is obviously a definite fix that must be made.

But, depth signings to account for injuries?

Even if we assume that all our starters play 162 games, this still isn't a playoff team. The starters aren't good enough. That's the problem.

Actually there were some suggestions that the Phillies are on the same path as the Astros, so I would say that some are in fact, advocating an Astros-level demolition.

Fatal-- We thought we would need MYoung for the 2nd half playoff surge. He's a great locker room presence you know.

This team wouldn't make the playoffs with the best bullpen in major-league history.

Fatalotti - If you're talking about Michael Young, I agree. If you're talking about Cliff Lee, I disagree. I think the Phillies can be competitive next year if the right moves are made.

"If you think I have no problem at all with RAJ retooling, you haven't been paying attention."

I do pay attention and I'm well aware that you want RAJ fired (as do I). But you keep bringing up his incompetence as the reason (or at least one of the reasons) why a rebuild is undesirable. Then you turn around and say that a retool would be better, and that, with a $180M payroll, he should be able to field a perennial contender. But RAJ would be handling the retool too -- and he has already failed at retools with the exact same budget, 2 years in a row.

My point: you can't cite RAJ's incompetence as the reason for favoring a "retool" over a rebuild, when that very same RAJ would also be in charge of the retool. It's not like RAJ has proven that he does retools better than rebuilds. To the contrary, the last 2 years have proven that he doesn't do them well at all.

Here's an interesting stat. Phillies ERA by role this season:

Starter: 4.28
Reliever: 4.23

Cyclic- Haha, just to be clear, I said 40+ HRs IF he plays 140+ games.

Jake, I disagree.

I would say I'm glad you're not running the team, but the fact is, a decent enough proxy of you is, so there's that.

I probably should've said 35 HRs, but wtevr

Kendrick is a good example of a player who should not figure into the Phillies plans. He will not be worth what it will cost to re-sign him, & should have been/should be shopped.

Jack - That stat doesn't tell the whole story. How many LABs so far?

I wasn't trolling you, Jake.

For some reason, I have faith in Howard too. I really hope he stays on the field healthy (especially against RHP).

Jake: Not as many as there are LATTSPWDOPO (losses attributable to terrible starting pitching, wretched defense, or pathetic offense).

As far as being competitive next year, the GM should focus on revamping the BP, and making several depth signings to compensate for inevitable injuries.

This, at least how I see it, is exactly what r00b failed spectacularly at doing this past offseason. I have no doubt he'll attempt the same after the current season, & fail again.

In response to bap's 7:21 post, refer back to 5:47

GTown - No argument here. He failed miserably, but had he been successful, the team wouldn't have fallen off a cliff when Revere & Brown hit the DL.

Howard hasn't hit at a 40 HR/700 PA pace since 2009. Even in 2010, a year in which he was healthy all up through the beginning of August, and had a torrid September, he still was only on a 35 HR/700 PA pace.

Ryan Howard will never hit 40 HRs again.

Ryan Howard will very likely never hit 35 HR again.

In fact, I'll go out a limb and claim that Howard never eclipses 30 HR again.

Look, don't get me wrong. The bullpen is not good and doesn't project to be great next year (though bullpens are so random that who knows what could happen).

But I must be watching a different team. There are really people who think all they need to do is fix the bullpen and this is a playoff team?

Seriously?

Young singles and Ruf grounds into the double play.

of course

Trades can be made during the offseason right?

The Legend of Babe Ruf shall omit that last PA from its future retellings, methinks.

One last time, I'll deal with this canard.

On the day Domonic Brown hit the DL, the Phillies were 49-52, with a -57 run differential, and were 8 games out of a playoff spot.

They were a below-average team anyway. Brown hitting the DL did not make them miss the playoffs. Please stop with this massive distortion.

Fatalotti - Howard hurt his ankle mid-2010, I was at the game in DC, he missed some time and it led to more injuries which he's never truly recovered from.

How about Revere, Jack?

Straw that broke the camel's back, much?

Jack - It's all irrelevant at this point, but it wasn't just Brown's injury. It was Halladay, Adams, Howard, Revere, then Brown, with no roster depth. The result was playing two of the best teams in baseball with an outfield consisting of John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, and Steve Susdorf.

Losing Revere hurt more than Brown, obviously. But no, I still don't think it was a playoff team even if Revere stays healthy.

Anyway, no team avoids injuries. The Braves have had plenty of them (Venters, Heyward, McCann among others have all missed significant time).

It just wasn't a good team this year. From the start. Why is that so hard to see?

Jack: But w/ Howard & Brown & Revere healthy, & Halladay returning to Cy Young form, I'm certain all that the Phils need are a couple of fungibles for the 'pen. Hell, I'd buy '14 Postseason tickets right now!

(And you should realize that I'm not at all being serious. Yet I honestly believe that the FO honestly believes this line of crap.)

I guess it depends on what your definition of 'competitive' is. If it is .500, then maybe if Amaro manages to make a couple of astute value moves and they stay healthy.

If it is a playoff contender that might not make the playoffs but win at least 86-87 games, then 'no.'

Jake, Howard hurt his ankle August 1, 2010. At that point, with no signs of any lingering injuries prior, he had a .884 OPS. He missed 20 days with an ankle injury, and did struggle when he returned, posting an OPS of .246 from 8/21-8/30 (9 G, 37 PA).

But he hit a HR on August 31st, and from that date through the remainder of the season, he had a .956 OPS, and hit 8 HR (30 G, 131 PA).

Therefore, there was clearly a 9 game stretch after he returned from the DL where he was clearly struggling to regain his timing and still recovering. But in the other 143 games he played that season, there's very little reason to think that any injury was holding him back, especially considering that he hit WAY better in September than he did at point during the rest of the season.

Point is, even in that season, in which 133 of the 143 games he played were under reasonable, healthy conditions, he still didn't hit HR at a rate per 700 PAs that would equate out to 40 HR.

Since every team has injuries every year, every team has a ready excuse for failure.

WHO ELSE IS GONNA DRIVE IN 100 RUNS???

THAT'S WHY HE'S "THE BIG PIECE"!

-- actually said on WIP (by a host, not a caller)

Forget the LAB stat, give me the bullpen stats (minus Casper Wells, and Mini-Mac) over this recent 7-2 stretch.

Is Diekman a real MLB pitcher now, or is that smoke and mirrors?

Fatalotti - I am well aware that my prediction of 40 HRs if he plays 140 games, is quite a stretch. Beerleaguer almost combusted after I said it.

I believe the answer is all of the above, Cyclic. As he's certainly one at the moment, but could easily be undone by reliever volatility tomorrow or a year from now.

Apparently 7 HR is quite a stretch for JRoll this season.

great play by Kratz

Say what you will about Kratz, but that's a great play.

It's almost as if walking the opposing Pitcher is a poor idea.

That was not as good a play by Kratz.

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