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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

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Best effort in a while.

Baseball can be fun to watch, what a surprise!

Great comeback win!

Could never have pulled it out without the contribution from Bernadina.

Phils signed Bernadina, yet another low risk player. You know what you call a team full of low risk players - a 4th place team.

Nice walk-off win tonight though.

Hall credits Young with a double above, but the espn write-up and boxscore says single. I know you can hit the ball 420 ft. off the CF wall with a runner on third in a walk-off, and only get credit for a single. Chooch was on second with less than 2 outs. Does the official scorer think he would score on a single? Or does Young not running hard (needlessly) to 2B change the scoring?

Did Young ever touch second? Or, did he pull up and watch Ruiz score?

It certainly would have been a double, but you're right — it's technically a single because Young never actually made it to second base. I'll make the change.

Would be a double in 2 man whiffle ball.

The celebration took place around 2B. Don't know if Young made it there. Only matters for his stats.(Rollins would have hustled to 2B.)

Rollins would have popped out to short.

j/k

Chooch usually catches the Aces, and Kratz the KK's. I assume Chooch is back for KK tomorrow. There were some rumblings early in the year about Kratz and the Aces. Was Ryne sending a message tonite that you can't pick your personal catcher?

Conway, if I remember correctly, it was Lee who had issues with Kratz when Chooch was serving his suspension, and Quintero always caught him.

Having a personal catcher is why Tim McCarver had such a long career. Therefore, all personal catchers are bad.

Halladay also blamed Kratz for his poor performance earlier this year, when in reality it was his bum shoulder. A little of the shine has come off of Doc's halo this season.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure Kratz seconds as the Phillies trainer...so that could explain Doc's complaints.

With Jaso still suffering from a concussion and Norris fracturing his toe, the A's are seeking catching help...

I don't forsee any trades by the phillies in the next 9 days. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't try and offer Ruiz to the A's, Yankees, or other team for some return.

Ruiz would need to clear waivers still right? I haven't heard he has, or was even put on them.

He would certainly get claimed I would assume.

"Two years ago, after the 2011 season, a few posters opined that Halladay was a HOFer even if he never threw another pitch. Are there any posters who still feel this way?"

I think he would still get in. Would probably take a lot of years of incremental increase though. 2 Cy Youngs, 5 other top 5 finishes, 130 ERA+, a postseason no hitter, a perfect game, and an absolute men among boys when it comes to CGs in the 21st century.

Doc 67
Livan Hernandez 39
Sabathia 37
Randy Johnson 32

Pretty sure Doc is still getting into the HoF even if this is it for him.

Yeah, he'd still need to clear. The interest is there, though--I say put him on and see what you can fetch at this point, especially since he's been batting well recently.

They're going to re-sign Chooch, not trade him. It's pretty obvious at this point.

I agree Chooh will be re-signed, not only because of lack of options by also because of the Aces' rapport with him.

They'll give him 2 years with a 3rd year team or vesting option. I can almost guarantee it at this point.

They like him, he likes Philly, the pitchers love him...etc etc. He'll go the Jason Varitek route and likely end up as our backup by the end of that deal.

Chooch is going to have to stay until one of the kids in the minors makes a case for himself. I don't see them signing McCann.

Interesting in-depth article on Ben Cherington and what goes into being a GM, on the upcoming anniversary of the BOS-LA trade.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2013/08/boston_red_sox_los_angeles_dod.html

John Farrell describes two types of GMs: "player development" type of GM like Cherington, vs a "scouting" GM (Farrell names Anthopoulos, but Amaro obviously fits in this category)

Chooch is an Aug/Sept player.

Always has been:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ruizca01&year=Career&t=b

Not coincidentally, his August slash line is .333 .370 .529, 56 PA.

He'll probably wind up with a respectable line by the end of the season if he gets enough PA.

Maybe the Adderall helped (probably). But I doubt it was THE single (or only) factor driving his performance from 2010 - 2012.

"They're going to re-sign Chooch, not trade him. It's pretty obvious at this point."

I agree. Besides, who are the FA alternatives who are better?

McCann, sure, but what will he cost? 5/60? Probably won't get the 5/75 that YMolina got, but he may get anywhere from 5/50 to 5/60.

I just don't see the Phillies opening the wallets like that.

Mayberry < The sum of his parts.

His speed is good; but he never seems to take the extra base, or beat out a chopper.
His arm is good; but he never seems to throw anyone out.
His looks like he's a good OF defender; but he misplays way too many balls.
He slings in his share of hits, especially for an extra outfielder; but they never seem too occur when they are needed most.

My 2014 Phils OF:
Brown
Ellsbury
Ruf
Revere (spot starter, def replacement, PR, situational PH)
Matt Stairs-type thumper bat

"He slings in his share of hits, especially for an extra outfielder; but they never seem too occur when they are needed most."


Really? What was the timing on his 3-run HR the other night? Are you saying they didn't need it then?

BTW, scratch Ellsbury. They won't sign him for the same reason they won' sign McCann:

Lot's of sunk cost and money needed elsewhere.

Signing Chooch to any more than a 2 year deal would be a mistake. Last night's heroics notwithstanding, every aspect of his game has taken a notable drop this season. There's also the fact that Ruiz isn't getting any younger which, combined w/ his admirably hard-nosed playing style, increases the likelihood of his missing time due to injury. Of course Monty & the Nostalgic are in charge, which means I fully expect Chooch will get 3 years, w/ an option for a 4th.

It's easy to scratch off every FA as too big a risk, but if you do, how does this team get better?

Why sign Ellsbury when r00b's on the verge of locking up Bernadina?

Brilliant.

Tweet & pic courtesy CSN Philly's Michael Barkann.

A closer view of the picture.

Ellsbury would be an interesting choice in that he could take over CF and make Revere a 4th OF/defensive replacement.

Cons to Ellsbury:

1. Boras is his agent
2. Major injury concerns (averaged 83 games a season the 3 years prior to 2013)
3. Having a huge walk year so he'll ask for the moon based on that and his career year at Age 27 where he was the MVP runner-up. Boras will say "He's a game changer when healthy equivalent to Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle...blah blah blah"

Okay, awh, I engaged in a bit of hyperbole. But it seems, when its a late-game, high-leverage situation, his AB's are often very ugly, and he looks over-matched.

Mayberry < The sum of his parts.

B-R.com estimates our payroll committment at $127 million roughly if we bring back everyone eligible for arbitration plus our 6 guaranteed deals for 2014...that'd mean we'd have 10 spots to fill on the roster and about $50 million to do it if we use the Luxury Tax as a hard cap ($177 million plus 40 man costs/health benefits to push up against $189 million.)


Somehow I doubt Ownership will take us up against the limit given the drop in attendance and their determination that its full-on rebuilding. They'll probably spend in the $150-160 range again.

All good points, NEPP.

However, courtesy of Rube, Phils are in a position where they have a mediocre, yet nearly locked-in roster.

There seems to be few options for upgrade, and most are risky. E.g., McCann, Ellsbury.

Sorry, that wasn't updated for Utley's extension...so its really about $142 million and 9 spots to fill with $35 million remaining.

Ellsbury would give us the very mythical "prototypical leadoff hitter who can steal bases"...something we haven't had in a long time.

Really? What was the timing on his 3-run HR the other night? -awh
-
Or his walk-off hit vs. CWS (7/14), game-tying HR vs. CWS (7/13), game-tying HR, then game-winning GS in the same game vs. FLA(6/4), go-ahead 2-run double vs. CLE (5/14). That's just this season, he has quite a few more clutch hits dating back to the start of his career, including 5 of his first 8 career HRs coming with the game tied, or the Phillies down by a run.

They're not going to "get better" next year.

They're multiple years away and are going to get worse before they get better.

Are there really people who still don't see this?

If the Phils had one or two missing pieces, Ellsbury would make enormous sense despite the huge pricetag.

In the current situation he makes no sense at all.

***In the current situation he makes no sense at all.***

In that scenario, it makes no sense to sign any FAs...and just accept that they likely win 65 games in 2014.

I doubt Rube will do that considering his job is on the line.

Others are capable of seeing the same things you see, Jack.

I'm hoping that our Phils see themselves now as a franchise that cannot sit through years of rebuilding...they see themselves more like the Yankees/Red Sox model. I.e., employ big spending, big trades/acquisitions to quickly turn things around.

I 100% disagree with the statement that Ellsbury makes no sense for this squad. He's a good offensive player, but perhaps more importantly for this team, he's an excellent defensive player. We've been trying to improve the offense at the cost of defense, and when you do that in too many spots, your pitchers suffer for it. This team is horrible at converting batted balls into outs. That has to change.

I don't have time to do this, but maybe someone here will create a list of prospects who have graduated to the big league level over the past 5 years with the Braves and the Philllies and made enough of an impact to remain with the team now.

I believe the contrast would be striking.

Another issue with Ellsbury: He's yet another LH bat who drops off against LHP...particularly this year where the OPS gap is 200 points between RHP and LHP for him.

Stunned if Chooch got a 3-year deal. He'll be 35 in Jan. A 2-year deal with an option is the max I bet.

Just depends whether or not he gets a raise over the $5M salary this year.

I would have to go back and look at what FA catchers have gotten the last few years, who will be available, and teams might need a catcher this offseason to make a more educated guess.

Col.Tom: I almost always agree with you, but not on this one. Ellsbury isn't enough to put this team in the playoffs and his huge price tag would almost certainly preclude other FA additions, without which this team can't contend. That's why he makes no sense.

Obviously if Ellsbury fell in love with Philly and wanted to do a team friendly deal, then you'd have to consider. But, back of the envelope, my guess is that he gets 5 years and $110M.

My guess...they'll give him 2 years, $16 million with a 3rd year team/vesting option that brings it to around $24-25 million total.

I dont want to hear Ruben blame injuries for the poor performance of this team he put together.
As soon as I heard the headline "MLB star hit in jaw by pitch" I knew it had to be someone on the Braves. They have had unbelievable amount of injuries this year and are still leading by 15 games.
Overcoming injuries is one of the signs of a good GM.

clout: "Ellsbury isn't enough to put this team in the playoffs and his huge price tag would almost certainly preclude other FA additions, without which this team can't contend."

Wait, are you actually suggesting that the Phillies have a budget, and that giving a huge contract to one player impairs their ability to spend elsewhere?

***But, back of the envelope, my guess is that he gets 5 years and $110M.***

I was thinking he'd get something closer to the Swisher/Upton deals last winter. Even with Boras as his agent.

Still overpriced...particularly for an injury-prone guy entering his Age 30 season.

Couldn't agree more, clout.

What if...what if you could magically go back in time. Magically. scoop up the batch of live arms: DeFratus, Deikman, Aumont, Rosenberg, Schwimer, Savery (I'm missing one or two others) and plop them into the Braves, or Cards, or Rays org. What might these guys be like today?

So what's stopping the Phils from building this type of world-class system? Nothing. Except two things. Montgomery. Amaro.

Ruf's assist was his third in 13 games in the right field this year. Not bad, especially considering he'd never played there in a minor league or major league game before this season.
Compare that with Delmon Young, who was designated for assignment a couple of weeks ago. Young had only four assists in 64 games in right field.


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I'm sure many recall the Gio Gonzalez debacle where we got him and then traded him. The big complaint from the White Sox was that Gonzalez took a big step backwards developmentally during the year he was in our system...because our coaching staff in the minors sucks royally. I see no reason to believe that has changed in the last 6 years given the complete lack of prospects developing (particularly young arms).

BAP: Of course there's a budget. And you can talk about it in general terms. It's only you and the Moronocracy that talks about it in great detail as if you have a clue.

NEPP - I would be surprised if Chooch got 2 yr/$16M. Say 2 yr/$12M with an option buyout for $1.5-$2M.

I hope the Phils improve next year and attendance doesnt drop preciptiously.
But it attendance does drop due to more lousy play (and high prices at the Bank) and they do fire Ruben I have a bad feeling that they will still keep the present talent misevaluators on hand unless a total outsider is allowed to come in.

If you remember, when Gillick came in Monty wanted to keep a lot of these people in place and he complied. When Arbuckle was passed over for the GM position he took some of the best people with him.
The insiders, the Chris Wheelers of the talent evaluation set remained and they need to be replaced for any real improvement.

What is Wheelers salary?
I'll bet the enormity of it would shock us.
Could they get a better caliber outfielder in here with that $?
Considering Wheels gets everything for free and doesnt have a family I bet he winds up being one of the Phillies partners.

Mike - You have to hope that after the TV deal is signed that Monty and Co and all of the years of accumulated detritus are cleared out when they sell out.

You also hope they get a new owner who treats the Phils as a sexy showpiece and wants to win instead of as an investment & managing annual cash flow.

clout: Well, we know that there is a luxury tax which kicks in when a team spends above a certain amount on payroll. And we know the Phillies' budget has been right up against the luxury tax threshold for two years in a row. We also know that they traded Pence for the specific purpose of getting under that luxury tax threshold in 2012. You don't think we can draw some reasonable inferences about what the budget will likely be for 2014?

So what's stopping the Phils from building this type of world-class system? Nothing. Except two things. Montgomery. Amaro. - Bonehead
-
This. Except I would argue its just Montgomery. Without him there is no Amaro.

I want to live the rest of my life as a woman.

"I'm hoping that our Phils see themselves now as a franchise that cannot sit through years of rebuilding...they see themselves more like the Yankees/Red Sox model. I.e., employ big spending, big trades/acquisitions to quickly turn things around"

They shouldn't always be believed of course, but the FO has been clear they don't see the situation as "rebuilding" (i.e the Astros), but a "retooling". Factor in the phanbase getting upset, ticket sales down, and thusly, RAJ's seat getting a little hotter, you have to assume the Phillies will make some noise this offseason.

Went to the game last night. Sparse crowd for a bobblehead night.
Some of the vendors were complaining that the people coming to the games are getting priced out of food and drinks and arent buying nearly as much.
Sandwhiches are $11, some beers are $13 hotdogs are 4-5$ parking is $20-$25
I think the owners got greedy and the high prices of everything will be a factor in the decreasing attendence along with a team that sucks.
They can play games with the ticket prices and sell you a 48 dollar ticket for $12 to move them but the concession prices are fixed and they are high.
Look for a lot more concerts at the Bank in the future.
They are even hosting a Spartan Run there to make money.

The problem with rebuilding is you have to know how to rebuild and Amaro and the Full Monty have no idea how to rebuild.
Instead of reload their motto should be fill and patch.

Since Gio's departure via trade, aren't there new coaches at all levels?

Revere is a good CF. I'd rather upgrade elsewhere.

If Ruiz is going to cost more than this years salary, I'd probably consider letting him walk.

Will other teams really see him as an 'everyday' catcher at this point?
If he stays hot through the rest of the season then I could see another team giving him a raise. Phillies should probably call up Rupp Sept 1 and give him and Kratz most of the starts to keep Ruiz from accumulating any more value (WAR is cummulative).

I was hoping to get Ruiz for a 2yr/7M deal with 3rd year option. That seems unrealistic based on others suggestions.

The guy who won the Iron Pigs free funeral contest has ALS. I don't know how to feel. He seems very happy about this burden being lifted for his family.

Do most general managers get involved in player discipline when the players won't listen to the manager?
I remember the Pope and Dallas Green and many other GMS following the team and getting in peoples faces.
Amaro never does that, guess he wants the players to like him.

GBrett, good article. Here's the quote from Ruf:

"I've found myself playing more long toss. The arm strength might come with it. But [I'm doing that] just to keep my arm in shape for making more throws, more so than trying to improve arm strength. Hopefully this offseason I'll be able to stretch it out and work on arm strength and things like that."

Uncle Charlie left quite an impression on this kid.

***Since Gio's departure via trade, aren't there new coaches at all levels? ***

I'd bet the Org mentality hasn't changed though.


Amaro never does that, guess he wants the players to like him.

Posted by: SAV | Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 11:37 AM

Ed Wade probably warned him what could happen if you get in a player's face...I doubt Rube wants to be choke slammed in the locker room.

Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm certainly not a doctor, but wasn't it reported that adderall can be used as a masking agent for other drugs?

I hope that's all Chooch was on, but I remember the original reports insinuating that though all that was found was adderall, it could have been worse.

***I was hoping to get Ruiz for a 2yr/7M deal with 3rd year option. That seems unrealistic based on others suggestions.***

My suggestion was probably a bit high FWIW.

I am going to stay broadcasting in Philly until I get my way and they tear down all the Harry stuff, plaster my name all over and then I am going piss all over his statue and bang whores.

One could argue that Wheels is the best part of the tv broadcast crew given the low bar set by T-Mac, Sarge and Murph...all of whom, to me at least, are like nails on a chalkboard.

Monty begat Ed Wade. Ed Wade begat r00b. Monty & r00b begat the return of Ed Wade. The Phillies have mastered circular ignorance.

Also, I see no signs that anyone in the FO is interested in rebuilding. Everything they've done appears to be of the slapping Band-Aids on a sucking chest wound & making transparently lame excuses variety.

***Also, I see no signs that anyone in the FO is interested in rebuilding. Everything they've done appears to be of the slapping Band-Aids on a sucking chest wound & making transparently lame excuses variety.***

That usually works really well...just look how well those Houston teams did under Wade when they tried the same method there before completely blowing up the club finally...

Wheels gets drunk on girl drinks and jerks off like a cocaine hooked circus monkey when we are on the road. Franzke had 600 hrs of video tape of it.

NEPP - I would argue Sarge is less annoying, incoherent banter notwithstanding.

What is better about Wheeler than the other three you've named?
If you tell me Wheels is better than Franzke and Anderson too you need help my friend or you must have a connection to Wheels.

Sarge's voice (like a stomped on bullfrog) is brutal for me...probably a personal issue but still.

One could argue that death by asphyxiation beats death by defenestration too.

Franzke/Anderson are miles above the tv crew...all of them and its not even close.

Chooch's down year came at a bad time. When you look at what he has been paid over the last 7 years, what he's likely to be paid over the next 2 or 3, and what his actual performance has been over the bulk of that period, he will likely go down as one of the most underpaid major league players of his era.

***One could argue that death by asphyxiation beats death by defenestration too.***

I think that would depend on what you're landing on after you've been tossed from the window.

Picket fence? Definitely worse than suffocation.

"Revere is a good CF. I'd rather upgrade elsewhere." - lorecore.

In a theoretical world, I would agree with you.
In the 2014 Phils MLB world, upgrade options are few. Ellsbury, IMO, is one of the few.

(As NEPP pointed out, though, I don't like his left-handedness.)

I get the MLB package on Comcast and have the MLB radio package on XM and take it from me Wheels isnt that good.
He seems like one of the front office guys broadcasting a game.
He does a lot of the "I'm an insider" bits.
His autobiography should have been called "Being There" because he is one lucky dude to be where he is.
He claims its talent and hard work.

I think he and TMac have been a little more critical this year of the team which is a good thing.
I thought TMac talked too much at first but he has a good sense of humor and is growing on me. I guess anyone after Harry would appear to be talking too much.
Sarge has grown on me too. He is our version of the Scooter.
Greg Murphy is good, what do you expect from the man in the stands, what else can he do.

Dice-K to the Mets apparently...on a Major League deal, not a MiLB one. So he'll be on their 25 man.

Sorry, still not sold on Revere.
If I could get a centerfielder with some pop and an arm I would upgrade.
Now is the time to move himafter being ice cold he got hot.
I think he will be a streaky singles hitter with bad baseball instincts.
The no arm thing is what bothers me the most. It just opens up the other teams offense so much.

***I thought TMac talked too much at first but he has a good sense of humor and is growing on me.***

I believe that is called Stockholm Syndrome...

***Greg Murphy is good, what do you expect from the man in the stands, what else can he do***

Be good looking female eye candy like the other 29 teams "guy in the stands" reporter...

What is wrong with Wheels? He is the greatest ever.

Wheels is annoying as hell and treats the viewer like they have never watched a single game before the one he's broadcasting.

Its grating but less so than T-Mac to me at least.

Now is the time to move Revere. Sell high. No arm or pop, terrible routes to the ball and bad instincts on the bases. No need to blow a fortune on Ellsbury. The Phils already have a much better option than Revere just sent back again to AAA.

Don't listen to my brother. He is a wild man.Wheels is just swell, though.

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