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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Comments

I was about to post a link to this. BL beat me to it.

That Yankee bashing is aimed at getting the red state vote.

I gotta say, he looks like an even bigger fatter POS sausaging that Rutgers polo into his size 50 khakis.

Who cares about this?

Iceman - yeah I didn't think the story deserved a BL headline either. Slow day.

JP Crawford in 201 PAs so far across the GCL and Sally:
.341/.440/.447 OPS of .887. 13 XBH, 1:1 walk to strikeout ratio. Gotta like what you see so far.

They will probably just skip the game thread due to all this "activity" today.

Why is this an event?

Jake: Holliday makes $8m less per year than Howard.

What a lard. Damn

Holliday is also good, unlike Howard.

Good thing we have our own Holliday but younger...

I'm fairly certain that it's in New Jersey's constitution that the governor has to hate the Phillies, if only because he is obligated to defend Camden's honor. And defending Camden's honor means disliking anything in Philadelphia that makes it a more desirable place to live.

Insert joke about the Phils playing this year like they want to move across the river [here].

Anyway, arguing about the merits of the Cardinals or Braves or Astros vs. the Phillies is all sort of besides the point. Each team is unique, and has to deal with the situation in front of it.

Here's the Phillies situation: They're bad, they have a lot of money locked up in old players getting worse, and they don't have much by the way of a farm system behind a few guys.

If you think that situation screams out "we can contend every year," more power to you, but you may also be on some serious drugs.

jbird - bap mentioned that the Cards gave 2 year deals to Berkman and Beltran because they "understand that major league players have a shelf life". Holliday was signed to a 7 year deal at age 30.

Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins might not be "bad" next year. Ever think of that?

I think Christie's inability to resist his constant temptation to belittle opponents (or opposing teams beloved even in his home state) will be the reason he will never be President.

Jake: Ok, you're right. The Holliday deal completely invalidates any and all points that BAP was making about the Cardinals. Well done.

Now, would you please explain to me how the Phillies team that hasn't contended the last two seasons and is now older and worse and without much of a farm system is in a situation where they can contend every year? Thanks in advance.

Can the dumb meme about "The Cardinals let Pujols walk" please stop? It is a dumb argument that holds zero water or value.

The Cardinals made Pujols a massive offer that he declined for an even more massive one. The Cardinals basically lost because he was given more cash somewhere else (and for a very long extended period of time.)

If you think that situation screams out "we can contend every year," more power to you, but you may also be on some serious drugs.
-
Any team willing to spend $180M, can and should contend every year. #fireRAJ

Jake didn't say that. He was just offering an example where the Cardinals went against something another poster said they always do. Geez, can any conversation here not boil down to personal attacks and douchebaggery?

Jack: One thing says they can contend every year: A bigger payroll than any of the teams you mention.

Need I point out that the last time the Phillies went into a full rebuilding mode they turned in 15 losing seasons in 16 years?

The notion that the team could have shed payroll while adding prospects was and is a pipe dream. You might have noticed that nowadays you get only one or the other, unless you're dealing with last year's Dodgers.

So the question to answer before dumping the incumbents is, who gets the job instead? Is Freddy Galvis better than Rollins? No, although I think it would be a wash, so I wouldn't mourn that move. Is Hernandez better than Utley? No, and that's partly why Utley was extended.

On the other hand, Asche is at least as good as Young (better defensively) and Ruf is better than D. Young offensively (though not much of a defensive upgrade). That's why they moved in while Rollins and Utley stay in the lineup.

Christie is also a Mets fan, so his having a frothing hatred of both the Phils and Yankees is entirely justified.

Just as, for instance, any Phillies fan having a frothing hatred of the Toronto Blue Jays and/or Mitch Williams is entirely justified.

Were the Phillies actually trying to rebuild in the 90's? I see no evidence of that. They just drafted crappy players and signed mediocre veterans.

Yes, because having a big payroll is a guaranteed way to win. See, e.g., the 2012 and 2013 Phillies.

The Phillies have significant financial resources. That's why I want them to clear some salary, so they can use those resources. But while they're paying all this money to a few guys, it's going to be next to impossible for them to do so in a real way. They may be able to sign one guy, but they're way more than one guy away. Holding on to these old overpaid guys is not using their financial resources to their advantage--in fact, it's the opposite.

Let's say they have $30 million for next season (which is higher than I think they actually have to spend). They need a RF, a C, two SP, and bullpen help. At the least. And those guys all have to be good enough to take a team from 70-75 wins to 90-95 wins.

Now imagine they weren't paying $11 million to Rollins, $12 million to Papelbon, and $25 million to Howard (I'll leave off Utley and Lee, since they're still pretty valuable). Now you'd be talking about some financial resources to use.

Cesar Hernandez as a CF (21 games, 87 PA):

.356/.402/.411/.813
13 R, 7 RBI

Yeah, I think I'd rather watch him than Roger Bernadina.

Imagine if Rollins and Howard improve on this year's numbers...

Good thing he won't be the next president then...as if it matters.

Glad to see him express the opinion, honestly, even though he hates my team. This is what sports fans are supposed to do — hate your team's rivals. Regardless of whether you care for his politics or not, it's nice to see the guy give his honest opinion. Besides, it's okay: I hate the Mets right back ;)

Christie is a big ass. He claims he's a Republican but kisses up to Obama big time right before the election. To me, he's alienated members of both parties. But now he disses the Phillies! That's it! He's a big jerk. I hope he fails miserably in all of his future political endeavors. It figures that he's a Mets fan!

He's a Mets fan...therefore, he's an utter piece of sh!t...like most Mets fans.

Who cares about this?
Bears repeating.

Also, Rotoworld feed at right says the Mutts are trading Buck and Byrd to the Buccos. Can't hurt to have two guys that have hurt the Phils off the team.

Alby, and that wasn't even the worst period of losing in franchise history.

The discussion today is an interesting one, with Jack and Jake on opposite sides, and others chiming in.

I think we all agree that the team has made a number of mistakes lately, and I think we all agree (at least most of us) that r00b may not be the GM that can re-tool or rebuild (pick one).

But where I see the disagreement is in the expectations for some of the players on the roster, and how they'll perform next season.

MG has correctly lamented that the Phillies have averaged 3.75 RPG this season. They're also giving up more runs than any team in baseball.

Together, that's a massive fail and it jumped up and bit them right in the kiester after the ASB. You can only hide from run-differentials for so long. that is, if you're not scoring more than you're giving up, sooner or later you'll lose.

That said, let's try to project how many RPG this team will score next season, using most of the players currently on the roster. I did this a couple of days ago and came up with 4.43 RPG, which would have ranked 3rd in the NL this season.

However, there's one big change I'll make in running the lineup analyzer at Basball Musings: I'm leaving Ryan Howard OUT of next year's lineup.

So, here are the players I'll pencil in at carious position, with the OBP/SLG that the analyzer needs, as well as some assumptions behind the numbers:

C - Chooch is re-signed, using OBP/SLG guestimated on the last thread: .355/.395
1B - Ruf - .357/.567 lifetime, but we'll reduce that to .345/.500
2B - Utley - assume slight reduction from 2013 .340 .475
SS - JRoll - a slight rebound to .310/.360
3B - Asche - currently at .303/.422; we'll reduce to .305/.410
LF - Brown - .321/.519, no improvement from 2013
CF - Revere - able to repeat 2013 - .338/.352
RF - Mayberry/Bernadina platoon - yep, worst RF scenario - RB rebounds to career avg - .310/.361 (70%), RFD 2013 line .302/.424 (30%), averages to .308/.380
P - Phillies' pitchers in 2013 - .179/.176

The lineup in the order exactly as above scores 4.199 RPG.

It "optimizes" at 4.447 RPG (1989 - 2002 model), and 4.336 RPG (1959 - 2004 model).

All are an improvement from 2013.

So, really, what does my favorite player, Howard, add? :)

Easy now, Beerleaguer might break the internet if we start debating politics.

Oh, and the morbidly obese slob from NJ?


ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

"Now imagine they weren't paying $11 million to Rollins, $12 million to Papelbon, and $25 million to Howard (I'll leave off Utley and Lee, since they're still pretty valuable). Now you'd be talking about some financial resources to use."


OK, but who do you sign, Jack? Name some names.

awh, in response to you asking me who should catch next year in the previous thread...

More of the same is about as good as it is going to get because the Phillies internal options didn't do anything to step up and take the job from Ruiz.

Jake: Holliday & Howard were completely different situations. Holliday was a FA. If you wanted him, you had to pay -- in both years and dollars -- and a 7-year deal was what it took. His situation was kind of analogous to the Cliff Lee signing.

Howard was signed 2 years before he needed to be. If the Phillies had waited until the decision actually had to be made, they would have discovered that he had already declined to the point of being a league average first baseman. In other words, someone who might be worth about 3 years, $45M, not 5 years, $125M.

Politics? I was talking about Mets fans.

"More of the same is about as good as it is going to get because the Phillies internal options didn't do anything to step up and take the job from Ruiz."

Joe D, exactly. IMO I think they were hoping Joseph could step up, but the concussion and the symptoms from it completely derailed his season.

I'm confused. Chris Christie calls RAJ an "awful GM" and Beerleaguer posters are ripping him for it? If anything, that comment makes me want to actively campaign for him.

Who's Chris Christie?

A couple threads ago, someone asked which was dumber: the Mets still having Marlon Byrd or the Phils still having Michael Young.

We have our answer: Marlon Byrd is now a Pirate.

I'll remember this when him and Rand Paul are in a dog fight primary battle in '16.

awh: I don't have specific names, and that's sort of the point. Having money and roster space freed up means you have the opportunity to do a lot of different things. I do know that I would rather have the money and flexibility than any of Rollins, Papelbon, or Howard though. For sure.

There's no one way to do this. But I know the one way not to do it, and that's just to bring back the same team again, sign a couple of Michael and Delmon Youngs, and pretend like that's "reloading."

jbird: Do you ever add anything worth reading to the conversation? You'd think maybe one post once in awhile would yield insight or new information.

I'm not trying to start a fight, just an honest observation.

Richie Allen was a better hitter than Mike Schmidt. Discuss

Hillary: I love the Phillies!!

Are you saying he's lacking in production and that he needs to produce more production? Or just that his posts need a bit more versatility?

Alby: "So the question to answer before dumping the incumbents is, who gets the job instead?"

Exactly right. Jack, of course, just wants them gone. Could care less who replaces them or if the team gets any value in return.

It's a childish, emotional POV, shared by many here.

P.S. Nice to see you posting again.

Is this news? Who cares? He likes the Mets, of course he hates the Phils. The sun is hot. Water is wet.

Moving on...

sign a couple of Michael and Delmon Youngs, and pretend like that's "reloading."
-
I don't think anyone (except maybe RAJ) considers that "reloading".

Hey, Alby. Is your surname Tross, by any chance?

clout: lol, well there was that one time I said something about Asche being a possible league average 3b or at least a cost controlled stop-gap maybe a year or so ago...how about you?

"Any team willing to spend $180M, can and should contend every year."

First of all, they've never spent $180M even once -- let alone on a continuing basis. Their opening day payroll this year was $170M. Last year, it was about the same.

Second, you act like the Phillies have $170M in liquid spending money. The reality is, the vast majority of that $170M budget was already spent on past contracts that still exist -- and many of those contracts have now locked us into expensive players who aren't nearly worth their salary (i.e., Howard ($25M), Papelbon ($13M), Adams ($6M), and Rollins ($11M)). If you assume that payroll will stay constant next year, the Phillies' liquid money, that can actually be spent toward next year's team, is probably around $22 to $25M. And, once the season ends, they'll have vacancies at catcher and two starting pitching spots, not to mention the continuing abomination that is their bullpen.

Here's the thing about saying "you can't get rid of a guy unless you have someone better to replace them."

You say that about older players and then you hold onto them all the way until the point where they decline badly and you couldn't get rid of them if you tried, and then you inevitably have a player a lot worse than the options you could have had before.

Here's what we know. Older players decline. If you hold onto them until they've already declined, you're stuck with them, and now they suck. So yes, you have to take the chance on getting rid of a guy a year too early to avoid having them a year too late.

This is pretty simple stuff that most smart teams understand.

BAP: You forgot RF, unless you actually think they're going to use Darin Ruf as the starting RF, which is sort of insane.

Though, so was using Delmon Young as the starting RF, and they did that for three and a half months. So who knows what to think anymore.

BAP - I stand by my statement, that a well-run organization willing to spend up to the luxury tax threshold, can & should field a competitive roster every year.

Christie has gotten too big for his britches. :-)

jbird: I was never much worried about his bat, although he doesn't project the kind of power you'd expect from corner INF. The issue with him was always his glove. If he turns out to be a below average fielder without much power, he'd have to hit for a high average and high OB to have staying power. I think the odds are against that.

Of course, if his glove turns out to be fine, then he's got a shot.

Here's what we can say about him now that is factual, not speculation and hope: He's put up a .253/.303/.422 slash line and shown a below average glove in 25 games.

"Insane" would be benching Ruf because he's a below average outfielder.

Jack - You sound suspiciously like RK when you say things like -
"Here's what we know. Older players decline. If you hold onto them until they've already declined, you're stuck with them, and now they suck. So yes, you have to take the chance on getting rid of a guy a year too early to avoid having them a year too late. "

By that type of mentality, the Phillies should never have signed Cliff Lee prior to 2011 and should have reloaded then. How popular would that have been coming off two WS appearances and and NLCS appearance?

If only he hated cake as much as the Phillies.

Jake: I think we all agree on that, actually.

But this hasn't been a well-run organization, so you have to do something about it. And the answer for this team is not to "reload." It's to be honest about where they are, and to re-start. The sooner, the better. If they had recognized it at the deadline, my feeling is they could've competed by 2015.

Now, I don't think they'll compete until later, and the longer they wait to realize what needs to happen, the longer it will be until they compete. A team led by Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, and fill-in parts is simply not good enough anymore.

Jake: I wouldn't bench Ruf. He would be playing 1B.

I would let Chris Christie eat Stromboli off my dick. Wait, he just did.

I mean other than Lee, what was trading anyone else at the deadline going to do?

OK, but who do you sign, Jack? Name some names. - awh

Do you really think with $48m freed up you couldn't replace the production we've gotten from Rollins, Howard, and Papelbon this year?

Just spitballing but I'd sign:
Kendrys Morales
Mark Reynolds (as a backup CIF)
Jhonny Peralta (on a PED discount)
Ed Mujerca
Jesse Crain (depending on health)
JP Howell

and probably be left with a pile of money left over.

Jack- what is insane about starting Ruf in RF?

Matt Gelb (‏@magelb)
Brown tested his Achilles a few minutes ago. No go.

RedBurb: Could've gotten something good for Utley. Obviously they should've gotten whatever possible for Michael Young (something being better than nothing). Rollins is still good enough you could've at least moved his salary off the books and freed up $11 million for next year and had no concerns about vesting option for 2015.

If anyone would've taken Papelbon (which I doubt), then obviously they should've done that as well, either for prospects or salary relief.

This is the problem with old players...

Sissy...just give him a cortizone shot and be done with it. Worked with Howard.


On next year, why not Ruf in LF and Brown in RF? Why is that so insane?

Don't get me wrong. The Phillies most likely won't contend next year if they just put some band-aids on the current roster, but teams aren't trading minor league talent anymore for rentals. The key is if you have a strong farm system, hold onto those guys.

With an OF of Brown-Revere-Ruf added to the aging infield, you can forget about the "pitching + defense" mantra.

@NEPP, first they have to sign him to a 10-year deal, then shoot him up with cortizone.

Contrary to how much I (and the rest of Phillies fans) love Utley, I don't think the Phillies were getting anything of value for him at the deadline.

Which has had more of an affect on the Phillies record this season... OF defense or lack of offense?

effect*

sorry

I have to laugh. I like Christie and I like the Phillies.

He had better hope, however, that should he run for president in 2016 that there is not a repeat of Gore-Bush with the election decision resting in the hands of the Supreme Court.

Sitting in one of those nine chairs is none other than Justice Samuel Alito, a lifelong, die-hard Phillies' fan ... from New Jersey!

Quick story: back in 2007 or 2008, I attended a black-tie dinner when I spotted Justice Alito during the reception. I walked over to him, introduced myself, and told him I had just two words for him. He looked at me a little nervously until I said, "Go Phillies!" He immediately stopped a discussion he was having with former Atty General Edwin Meese and began talking about his beloved Phillies.

I recall that the dinner was a night after the Phillies had lost a heartbreaker in extra innings to the Cardinals and we both confessed we had stayed up till about 1 a.m. watching it. But he quickly added that Baseball Prospectus had increased the Phillies' chances of making the playoffs to 48.989 (or some such) percent.

He's a rabid Fightins Fan so, be careful, Gov. Christie!

Kirk told Alito and Roberts that Obamacare is an ok tax.

Alito did not vote to uphold Obamacare under the taxing power. That was just Roberts.

"Here's the thing about saying "you can't get rid of a guy unless you have someone better to replace them.""


Jack, I'm calling Bullsh8t on that.

NO ONE HAS POSTED ANYTHING TO THAT EFFECT.


We have asked the "Dump Everyone Club", of whom you seem to be the President, to please lay out a course of action - that, is, which players who will be available would you bring in to replace them - that will help the team win more games.

You have advocated dumping - or at least "wished away" the contracts of Rollins, Howard and Papelbon.

OK, that's a legit POV, but give us the alternative. Advocating just dumping contracts like that makes me think you're Jeffrey Loria's Mini-Me.

We got into a debate years ago here about Phillies finances. I posted then, and have since, that I don't give a sh8t how much money any player makes... and I don't care if the Phillies make money. I won't ever see a slice of either so it's irrelevant to me. I care about seeing a winning product on the field, and just dumping players to get rid of contracts is an incomplete and silly strategy.

You are being arbitrary to a fault about the "contracts", which really means the "money".

If you think it can be better spent elsewhere then tell us where, or lose credibility, because otherwise you're just "talking the bullsh8t".

BAP: You're feeding a dirty roach.

Phillies Arizona Fall League players were announced.

Position players:
Aaron Altherr, OF
Cameron Rupp, C
Kelly Dugan, OF

Pitchers:
Kyle Simon
Mike Nesseth
Austin Wright
Ken Giles

A team led by Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, and fill-in parts is simply not good enough anymore.
-
Which is why you need to fill the other positions with impact players. Brown, Ruf, Asche, and Revere aren't elite players, but they are young and at least 2 of them should be impact players in 2014. Add a shutdown BP (easier said than done), an adequate bench, and this team could surprise us.

One thing we could all agree on is that Amaro should never be trusted with a rebuild. I'd rather him try to reload, and fail (again) and get fired, than attempt a rebuild and leave the next guy with a team of crap and no resources to improve it.

RedBurb- agree with most of what you say, and I actually agree with your point here. But I don't agree that they wouldn't have gotten something of value for Utley. Because of the position he plays, and the teams that would've been interested, I think they could've gotten at least one prospect back that would immediately be a top 3 guy in our system.

clout: I didn't think it was really you, but it was a neutral enough comment, so I responded.

Is the "J-Roll in the 6-hole Club" now defunct?

"Do you really think with $48m freed up you couldn't replace the production we've gotten from Rollins, Howard, and Papelbon this year?"


jbird, that's not the right question.

The right question is what kind of production are we going to get from Rollins, Howard and Papelbon going forward?

Once you decide on that, then you make the judgement as to whether the Production™ (you sound like r00b) can be equaled or bettered.

So, what do you expect out of those three next season, and the year after that?

Leave me Alone fake clout ! I am a gay conservative and proud

Ice - Who was in the running for a 2nd baseman? I remember the Royals being mentioned. They may have landed a Top 100 prospect, but for a guy like Utley, to me that's not enough. You need a Top 50 prospect or nothing.

Also, I think it says more about the Phillies farm system than Utley that the theoretical "prospect" would be top 3 down on the pharm.

Who cares about this?

Posted by: Iceman | Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 01:17 PM

It's all about page clicks.

When I'm voting for the POTUS I significantly consider their baseball allegiance /rolls eyes

awh: My point is that it can be better spent elsewhere, on a whole variety of combination of names. Besides big names like Choo and McCann, here are some moderately priced FAs, some combo of which would help the team without sacrificing a lot of future flexibility:

Nelson Cruz
Corey Hart
Kelly Johnson
Phil Hughes
Ricky Nolasco
A whole bunch of relief pitchers (Crain, Howell, Mujica, etc.)

The point is, I would rather take the money and flexibility and take my chances in FA (or, if no one good wants to sign here, saving the money for FA for next year and plowing money this year into international players). We already know that bringing back the same team is a likely recipe for failure. So why not move on, focus on adding and developing prospects, and use the money saved elsewhere, either on guys like the above this year or other guys you like more in the future?

awh: "The right question is what kind of production are we going to get from Rollins, Howard and Papelbon going forward?"

Exactly right. And suffice to say, I don't expect very much.

"Is the "J-Roll in the 6-hole Club" now defunct?"

Yeah, bap, I'm really down on Jimmy right now. He's down at the bottom of the lineup and has to earn his way back up.

Fair is fair. Right now he has the lowest OPS of any regular on the team. Heck, even Girardi moved ARoid down in the lineup. I love Jimmy and love what he's done for the franchise and City, and will always be a grateful admirer, but right now he's not playing like the guy we saw even 2 years ago, nevermind the guy we saw in 2007.

For the good of the team he needs to be moved lower in the batting order. If he's still good enough to hit higher then he needs to prove it.

BAP, glad to have you back and posting regularly. This site was devolving quickly without your take.*


*instead we now have the site's actual curators posting nonsensical, wastes of time blips about the MLB leanings of a "as of yet irrelevant" political figure that actually has no bearing whatsoever on this team. Glad to see CSN is so committed to cleaning up this blog, including the fake posters

"Christie labeled Ruben Amaro Jr. as an "awful" general manager, a sentiment the Ruin Tomorrow bashers undoubtedly won't protest.

But he also said Charlie Manuel's firing was handled "disgracefully" by the Phillies"

How is this a "but"? This is an also, as in Ruben sucks, and also said that Charlie's firing was disgraceful.

I have no life

Phillies AZ Fall League players:

Aaron Altherr
Cameron Rupp
Kelly Dugan
Kyle Simon
Mike Nesseth
Austin Wright
Ken Giles

Everyone is a no brainer to me except Rupp. I think the Phillies are targeting him for a 2014 job. There is no other reason to put on mileage of a big body catcher unless you're trying to prep him for MLB pitching sooner than later.

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