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Wednesday, July 03, 2013

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Utley for Puig!

Keep him. Offer him a one-year deal this winter. If he accepts, great. If he goes elsewhere the Phillies get a first-round pick, which is probably more value than they'll get if he's traded this season. All that aside, it will be a seismic occurrence when and if he goes. Really hope he can somehow be a Phillies for life 'cuz that's how we're going to think of him regardless.

Looking at the dodgers system, anything but Zach Lee would be unacceptable return.

Wouldn't they have to raze CBP and plow salt into the earth and rubble so that baseball will never grow there again if this happens?

Zach Lee plus a couple more . He's got a nice arm but far from a sure thing.

Given their division, the Dodgers are very much in the race. If they have Utley they also know they have the inside track to sign him in the off season, and he would improve their team immensely over the next couple years. (And save them from Cano contract debacle)

You demand a king's ransom for Utley, especially from the Dodgers.

I addressed this a few threads ago, so I won't repeat myself too much. Moving Utley makes little sense. Unless they get a huge haul, which they won't, I don't see the rationale. If he had three years $50M+ left on his contract, then I could at least see the logic behind a salary dump. But here, there's just no reason to do it.

Howard out. Knee really hurting.

Utley isn't going to get a king's ransom. The new CBA makes it so that an impending FA is always worth more to the team that has him currently than the team that trades for him (since the former, but not the latter, can make him a qualifying offer).

Because of that, I think they're keeping Utley and Lee. I think Papelbon, Michael Young, maybe Rollins, and maybe Frandsen are going. Delmon maybe on waivers in August if he heats up and someone needs a RH bat.

@KevinCooney: no Howard in lineup. Said his knee was really sore last night running bases.

Oh my lord, DL HIM!

They will just shoot him up again with a cort shot.

"Howard out. Knee really hurting."

Weird how the knee acts up when there's a lefty starter on the mound.

Jack: I agree with 3:37 from start to finish. Utley, contrary to popular opinion, holds little trade value based on his injury history and contract status. If they trade him, it will be for next-to-nothing. The guys you mentioned have have much more trade value than Utley.

If they refuse to DL Howard and continue to platoon him why not recall a player that doesn't suck? JMJ has no right to start after being picked off yesterday.

Its always acting up, he needs to be on the DL, the cortisone shot is pretty much wearing off/worn off.

It amazes me how horrible this medical staff is & the front office when it comes to injuries

I should clarify on Utley. Based on what they'd need to get back to justify trading him, I don't think they'll deal him.

But I supposed there are factors at work beyond that, like if Utley requested a trade. I don't think that's very common, and I don't know what the Phillies' reaction would be, but Utley has been here long enough and is important enough to the franchise that I assume they would seek his input, at least minimally, in any decision.

Mayberry v. left-handed starters, 2013: .296/.345/.463, 125 OPS+

Yup, definitely don't want him playing tonight.

Injury Update from http://delcotimes.com/articles/2013/07/02/sports/doc51d3a0bb6e089239823161.txt?viewmode=fullstory


"As for players on the disabled list, catcher Erik Kratz, who went to the Carpenter Complex in Clearwater, Fla., a week ago to continue his rehab from arthroscopic knee surgery, has been catching bullpens and started a running program. According to Amaro, the veteran is a medical checkup later in the week away from scheduling rehab games in the minors and might be back with the team before the All-Star break approaches.

Left-handed reliever Jeremy Horst (15-day DL, strained elbow) has been throwing on the side and progressing

but right-hander Mike Stutes (15-day DL, biceps tendinitis) continues to have soreness and has no timetable for a return."

"but it's not like he made it up"

why do I not believe this?

@Billingsly

Mayberry is playing...at 1B though. Young in RF.

What the heck could we get for Frandsen to make trading him worth it?

I said demand a king's ransom. I'm fairly skeptical that you get it, but the Dodgers are also the organization that traded for Crawford/Gonzales/Beckett. And if they reject the offer you get to keep the best 2B in the National League and franchise history for the rest of the year and, worst case scenario, come away with somebody's number one pick.

Corn: Sarcastically commenting on CS comment that JMJ should not be playing.

@Cyclic

I think you might be able to get more for Frandsen then M.Young. Plays 1B 2B 3B, hits for more power, better fielder, younger.

The guys you mentioned have have much more trade value than Utley.

Posted by: R.Billingsly | Wednesday, July 03, 2013 at 03:41 PM

Kevin Frandsen and Michael Young have "much more trade value than Utley"? Really?

June 28, 2013

MYoung, 4-6, 3 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR
Utley, 2-3, 3 R, 1 BB
Rollins, 2-3, 1 R, 1 RBI
Brown, 1-5, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 RBI
DYoung, 3-6, 1 R, 6 RBI(!)
Mayberry, 1-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 RBI, 1 HR
Revere, 2-6, 1 RBI
Ruiz, 1-4, 2 R, 1 BB
Lannan, 3-4, 1 R, 1 RBI

I don't expect another 19 hits, 14 R, 15 RBI, 4 BB, 2 HRs from this lineup, but is it too much to ask for maybe half that?

Go Phillies!

Teams trading for these guys are looking for that final piece of a WS winner...Utley is that guy much more so than M. Young or Kevin Frandsen.

FWIW.

Ugh, Delmon Young in the lineup. Here's the three righties you have to choose from for tonight's lineup, and their splits against LHP:

Mayberry: .792
Frandsen: .947
Delmon: .743 OPS

Also, Delmon is the worst defensively.

So sure, of course he should be in the lineup and Frandsen should sit! This team is simply not run properly, if the goal is to win games.

Jack-- The worst part is that if they did put Frandsen in the lineup, he'd be starting at 1B with Mayberry in CF and Delmon Young in RF.

If Howard would just hit home runs that would let him avoid running the bases. Simple as that.

I'm surprised its just the knee that's sore... after that slide at home plate last night, I was expecting elbow, rib or hip soreness too. He landed pretty hard.

While Howard until his O'for stretch had been playing pretty well since the cortisone shot, its really time to shut him down. He may be able to help for stretches at 850-900 stretches but then the soreness will catchup and you get the O-20 stretch. Which actively and passively hurts the team.

But if health is draining power which causes him to get on base and run bases which further hurts his health.. which would further drain his power... well you get it.

Shut him down.

There will be a game sometime this month...
that will be the last game Cole, Chase, Jimmy, Ryno, Chooch play together. "The Final Five" from 2008. Next Cole outings are against RHP the 3rd game on 7/14 is likely Quintana a LHP.


For those of you in the "keep Utley" crew:
Do you
A) sign him next year and beyond , expecting him to keep doing well at a hometown discount?
B) make him a offer and hope he takes a better offer, collect pick?
C) sign him to a market value long (3+ year) deal that he will expect?
I think you are dreaming if you think he comes back and starts the season and stays healthy for more than a year tops. I think he probably requires extensive DL breaks and long spring training from here on out.

It is just comical that Charlie keeps playing Young or Amaro is forcing him to play him.

Other wise I would have Mayberry in RF, Frandsen at 3B & MYoung at 1B

At this point, the Phillies should move Utley to 1B and play Galvis or Hernandez at 2B, with the long term plan of phasing in a slugger at 1B.

Howard belongs in the AL, where he can become Ortiz-lite or compete with Butler and VMart as the most underachieving DHer. He could be a monster at Yankee stadium, but the Yankees already have their version of Howard in Hafner. At this point, however, the Phillies will have to pay a lot of his salary to move him for a sack of balls. But a sunk cost is a sunk cost, right?

If you were Utley, would you want to return to the Phils after being traded to LAD? Would you rather be surrounded in the lineup by the same terrible hitters or by a lineup featuring AGon, HanRam, Kemp, Ethier, and Puig? And would you rather play on the field with M. Young, D. Young, Revere and Howard or on a field with a pretty elite defense (when everyone is healthy)? And you'd get to watch Kershaw pitch in his prime.

"Looking at the dodgers system, anything but Zach Lee would be unacceptable return."

Joc Pederson has put up pretty impressive numbers across the board at every level. Of course, I realize that a prospect's numbers are completely irrelevant. All that matters are his age, his physical tools, and what the scouts predict he'll do in the future. That's what lorecore keeps telling me.

OF Joc Pederson and RHP Jimi Garcia from Double-A is a reasonable ask. Zach Lee would be ideal, but won't happen. Possibly a 3rd player lkie RHP Ross Stripling or Chris Reed would get it done.

TNA,
The problem with moving Utley to first is that part of makes him so valuable is how good he is at second. He's metrics are spectacular, and continue to be.

He might look a little awkward out there, and make his share of errors, but he gets to everything, especially to his left. Watch Galvis and Hernandez play second at nowhere near the level Utley does really drove this point home about Utley's defense for me. Maybe Galvis would be better if he played it full time, but his bat really doesn't profile there.

Also, Amaro's pride would never allow him to dump the amount of salary (probably something like 75 percent) that it would take for an AL team to pick up Howard.

Corn loves him some Frandsen over MYoung.

The strategy is to get younger. Not by blowing up the team but by incremental change.

Utley is, alas, damaged goods and old. He should go. But the Dodgers or whoever wants him should pony up a realistic prospect or major leaguer. Don't give him away.

I don't want to sign him to a 3-year deal over the winter and then see him on the DL for 1/3 to 1/2 of the season.

Get younger, be happy.

bap: Joc Pederson is actually a great example of scouting report vs numbers.

He's been proving scouts wrong for the last 2-3 years straight. They continue to say he is a 4th OF at best.

I agree with Iceman, Dodgers' system is very weak, not an ideal trade partner. I do however like their SS/3B Corey Seager.

If the Phillies can get a player in return that they value higher than a ~#20-30 first round pick, then they should trade Utley.

I think they can, and I think they will.

Any chance Rube is doing a Kyle Drabek with Lee? Surely we all remember the mantra that the guy was untouchable.

The Dodgers would probably give up Pederson (they are overloaded in the OF and he will be a useful piece, not a star) and one of Lee/Stripling/Reed (all #3-starter ceiling guys). They have the depth to make that deal. You might even get a third guy, maybe a bullpen arm (Withrow?).

I'm with Joel Sherman's source - the deal makes a ton of sense and should happen. Of course, most such deals never do.

I know it doesn't sound as great a need but I think you hold Frandsen for your rebuilding infield or utility. I think playoff contenders might want him (he is Brosious-like).

limoguy - If we have learned one thing about RAJ over the years, it's that when he is talking about a possible move, he's lying. (Not that there is anything wrong with that.)

Same way I'm thinking, Colonel.

@ ColonelTom: Kevin Frandsen is nowhere near Scott Brosius-like. Brosius could be counted on for 15/70 per year, Frandsen barely has that in his big league career.

bap: "Of course, I realize that a prospect's numbers are completely irrelevant. All that matters are his age, his physical tools, and what the scouts predict he'll do in the future"


I got an idea. You can take the top 25 OPS/WAR/wRC+/whatever number you want in AA this year.

I'll take the top 25 ranked prospects in AA this year.

Lets see whose 25 players produce the most in the MLB over the next 5 years.

From Roob

Howard said this will be the process the rest of the year. Play, rest, play, rest. "If I can still try and go out there and play, this is probably going to be the process that is taking place."

Yeah, it's WIP, but this is pretty funny (except the jab about Ruiz's RBI pace)

Phillies Going Out of Contention Sale

https://soundcloud.com/sportsradio94wip/phillies-going-out-of

"The Phillies medical staff will be on hand to answer all of your questions incorrectly"

I still think it's mainly "There's a lefty on the mound" pain

And I'm just aghast that no one has commented on the update on the status of Jeremy Horst.

@Cyclic

Get Howard now and we will throw in a Delmon Young glove..it has never been used!

lore: I never claimed that scouting reports were irrelevant, so I would not take that bet. But the other reason I wouldn't take it is because the system is rigged for you to win. If a 25-year old "non-prospect" posts a .975 OPS at AA, and a 21-year old blue chipper posts a .703 OPS at AA, the latter prospect is very likely to "produce" more at the MLB level for the simple reason that he will be given more opportunities. The former prospect would be lucky to get any opportunity at all.

I like that lorecore called Howard's knee being sore for Jeff Locke almost a week ago.

It's getting sad at this point.

I keep going back to a half-year of Beltran getting Wheeler.

If Ruben shopped Utley around enough, I bet he could get back a return that's worth the risk of trading him.

Its absolutely pathetic that Howard has to be sat vs tough lefties and now has to have like what seems like every couple days off because of his knee.

DL him, bring up Ruf for 1B

@ Cyclic, you have the best solution to the Utley situation. If you can't get someone to overpay, offer make him a one-year qualifying offer. If he accepts great. If not, a first round pick will do just fine.

I think that was jdt or Zudok

That clip was funny but that morning show generally makes me want to punch baby cats.

It's easy you out a price on player and go from there. All the numbers of this and that are thrown out the window. If you feel chase utley will help you win. Then you as the gm leave no stone unturned. And if you don't trade him. Offer the arb get the pick and move on. Same for pap. Cle in race now and Detroit can't afford to lose leads in 9th. Start with nick c and add other pcs. Hold firm and if dont move him you have pap for few more years.

Plus what's not to say chase would love to end career out west? He won his ring and was the top 2nd basemen for 5 yrs. he owns a home in San Fran. So I would not be surprised if LA, and Oakland get in. Plus a few teams that need him to get them leadership and experience

Put Howard on DL and put Ruf at 1B for the rest of the season ... he might surprise! Amaro is a stupid control freak and a company man .. not capable of making the moves to get the team contending again .. only reason he signed Holiday,Lee and Paps was because the Phils opened up their check books and offered too much money plus long term contracts. Amaro is a IDIOT!

I can't believe I'm saying this, but trade Utley for Ethier. It may take more than just Chase, but LA is stocked with outfielders and it would give them salary relief (although they might not care about that). I would hate to see Chase leave, but I wouldn't give him away for just any prospect.

Here is a link to a mid-season performance review for Dodgers prospects:http://www.truebluela.com/2013/6/17/4437152/dodgers-2013-mid-season-minor-league-update
A lot of scouts seemed to be downgrading Zach Lee's ceiling to a mid-rotation starter before this season, but his improved stats this year might have brought his stock back up. Joc Pederson keeps proving scouts wrong- he's currently leading the Southern League in OPS as a 21 year old. Now that Urias is hurt, the 5'9" lefty Rob Rasmussen might be pitching better than anyone in their system. I liked him out of high school a few years ago and he's shot up the system despite his underwhelming stature. Considering the draft compensation, I would ask for all three in exchange for Utley.
Seager is the Dodgers top position prospect and Urias is probably still their top pitcher, despite his injury, so we're not exactly robbing their system. We're not touching their major league roster and Utley will likely re-sign with them.
I would ask for a lot because we don't need to trade him. I would offer him a modest 2-3 year extension this off-season and happily accept the draft compensation if he gets a huge deal elsewhere.

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