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Sunday, July 28, 2013

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repost:

anyone ever watch HBO Real Sports episode with Lenny Dykstra? I was reminded of that when Cabrera got tossed.

Lenny: "So i come to plate and Rick Dempsey is brown nosing this ump all night. I step out, and I point to the scoreboard, and say, "you see what that says up there? It says 4 f'n hundred. You know why? Because I know what a f'n strike is!"

Moments later Dempsey stands up and they start a fist fight right on top of homeplate.

If I'm Miguel Cabrera, thats my first response. 'Hey ump, you know why I'm the first triple crown winner since the Yaz? Cuz I know what a f'n strike is!"

clout: im glad you finally came to your senses and agree with me in wanting to trade veterans for younger players. A little slow to come around, but that's alright.

Good post.

From last thread: Olney just said they have had extensive talks with Boston and LA- the two teams I have speculated that have made Amaro the offer he's eventually going to take- about Cliff Lee. "Extensive." They haven't even discussed him with any other teams, and they are asking Boston and LA for a 'boatload' of prospects in return.

Good news, if you ask me. Both that they are asking for players and not money, and that they aren't motivated to move him unless they get specifically what they want. Clearly Boston and LAD have potential pieces they would want in exchange for Lee and Amaro won't even entertain the possibility of dumping him for less than what they value him for.

Today was the worst Phillies game I've seen in a long time, possibly ever.

Bruce Bochy had similar comments about the Giants recently. He said they just lack the motivation to win. I don't think anyone on the Phillies is flat-out dogging it, but if they lack the motivation to win, its hard to blame them. How can they be motivated to play hard enough to make up for the incomplete team around them?

When the aging core was a young core, they still had/needed bench depth and a decent bullpen to win consistently. Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Hamels would've gone nowhere in 2008 if they had Jake Diekman & JC Ramirez pitching out of the bullpen, and Mini-Mac, Mini-Mart & Laynce Nix pinch hitting late in the game.

9:34 is a repost

They don't lack motivation to win.

They just aren't good at the things that help you win baseball games.

It's amazing what one week can do. Last Friday things were looking pretty good.

How about Clifford Phifer to LA for Matt Magill and Joc Pederson? This would be a decent haul on Tues nite.

Jack - Rollins, Utley, Hamels, Lee (etc) are good at those things, but when 50% of the team belongs in AAA, it can de-motivate the vets who deserve better.

Scotch - Today was the worst Phillies game I've seen -- since yesterday's game.

Clifton the Big Red Sock

Jake: Ok, but they're not losing because the good players are not motivated.

They're losing because half the team belongs in AAA.

im probably relaying old news, but Maikel Franco(#33) and Jesse Biddle(#39) made Marc Hulet's Midseason top 50.

Jesse Biddle got lit up again today. Anyone concerned? Is he hurt and our top notch medical team doesn't realize it?

Does anybody care about Pap's opinion?

Delmon Young quote after the game about the losing streak:

"Have you seen the cheese spread?"

Saw Alex Meyer on that same list, with almost 11K/9 in 11 starts this year.

Hmm... do you think the Twins are happier to have Meyer or Worley/May?

oogie: Pederson would be a good grab, but for Cliff Lee thats an underwhelming centerpiece.

That return is more in line with what'd I ask for Utley.

It's amazing what one week can do. Last Friday things were looking pretty good.
Posted by: Jake | Sunday, July 28, 2013 at 09:40 PM

When they were 6.5 out? Your definition if "pretty good" is really different from mine.

If its Boston they're dealing with, I'm not so sure I wouldn't be OK with a Lee/Bogaerts 1-for-1 swap. Throw in MYoung, even, if that helps.

Turn around and get Pederson + for Utley and the future looks a lot brighter.

Forgot about Worley..checked his numbers in AAA - not good. 1.4 WHIP and a 5.3 K/9.

I was never a fan of his, but I would at least thought he'd stick as a backend starter. Still time obviously, but terrible terrible year for him.

And May with the same old, same old. Lots of hits and walks, even after repeating AA.

iceman: agreed. Gotta think Bogaerts is untouchable tho. In most cases, I would tell a team too bad...but he's probably one of the ~10 guys in the minors that you might have to concede and ask for others.

There's no room for Xander Bogaerts on this team with me here. I'm not going anywhere.

lorecore- I think Boston is one of the few systems that has a package of players they could put together without their top guy (I'd ask for their next 3 guys plus another player). But for negotiating purposes I hope Amaro is asking for Bogaerts and not budging until Boston ponies up the combination of players that would be worth pulling the trigger. With LA, there are fewer options. Their top 3 guys plus Ethier is what I'd ask for.

this team is a complete and utter embarrassment -- let's hope Rube doesn't get .10 on the dollar on the many trades that lie ahead (I'm not holding my breath)

Anyone else notice on today's broadcast?

The esteemed Phillies Player of the Week segment featured "The Phillies Defense".
Next-
Back to live action for the bottom of the sixth inning.

I realize it's a contrived PR thing and despite a (at that point) 7 game losing streak T-Mac and the other stooges needed something, but doing a promo featuring the Phillies defense is insane.

I like the Core/Ruiz. However if we resign Utley, dont trade Rollins we are bringing back 1/2 of the positional players and half of our problems back. However dont resign Ruiz and whos going to be our starting catcher. Im sure the bidding war will be high on McCann. No Utley surely means Hernandez as the 2nd baseman. Its like been stuck between a hard place and a rock. By golly sign a few bullpen pieces for this and next year.

"A package of players."
What the hell does that even mean??

""A package of players."
What the hell does that even mean??"

You really need it explained to you?

A lot more vitriol on here in the last 1.5+ years. Hmmm...

Iceman - Drink a beer and chill out.

This is all my fault cuz I'm dumb as a f*ckin' rock but my job is safe cuz Monty loves me! Enjoy the next few seasons, suckers!

"A package of players."

I believe Players are a brand of cigarette?

.

"A package of players" = "Some Dudes"

Love the pic.

What can I say about the 2013 Phillies that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan? It looks bombed out and depleted.

And they hate us for our freedom?

What can I say about the 2013 Phillies that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan? It looks bombed out and depleted.
Posted by: Silky Johnston | Monday, July 29, 2013 at 12:36 AM

Wouldn't say Biddle was roughed up - he didn't give himself a chance to be roughed up - 30 balls, 20 strikes, 6 BB, 1 HBP, in 1.1 IP - however I don't believe he topped 92 and his curve was coming in at 70. He threw a couple of knee bucklers but overall maybe he's not ready for this level. Colvin struggled with control, too. Franco, on the other hand, looked the part at the plate and in the field. Hewitt 0-3 with the sombrero as DH. Would be interesting to see who got drafted after him that year.

There's no room for Xander Bogaerts on this team with me here. I'm not going anywhere.

Did I really read that JRoll doesn't want to leave Philly because he wants a bunch of career records? Seriously?

That may be the worst, most loserish thing I've ever heard him say.

If he said he wanted to be here and help the team win again that would be one thing. But for stats? Sheesh.

Pap said he didn't come here for this.

We didn't sign him up for this either.

We should just agree that the deal is over.

OK with that Paps?

Whoever refuses to waive their no trade clause...BAM, two next to the ear.

"There's no room for Xander Bogaerts on this team with me here. I'm not going anywhere."

Well, except back to LHV. Then back to Philly. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

"This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end"

Rollins saying he wants to stay for the sake of franchise records says way too much about the guy and what he's been playing for the past handful of years. As some of the veteran posters here know, I've always been in Jimmy's corner, but that just sounds terrible. The Phillies frankly shouldn't want a guy with that attitude on the team.

As for Papelbon, don't let the proverbial door hit you in your prima donna ass on the way out. Here's what you came here for, Paps: a couple of double-A prospects and a fringe outfielder. Now you know!

I agree that Bogaerts alone for Lee would be a good return, even if that means paying half of Lee's salary after he insists that 2016 be guaranteed. If the Bosox say that Bogaerts is untouchable and want to substitute Jackie Bradley instead, the Phils should walk away.

The Dodgers don't have the prospects to make a reasonable offer for Lee. OTOH, I agree that Pederson for Utley would be attractive.

Wil Myers was a very highly rated prospect at the time he was traded for James Shields (#4 by both MLB.com and BA pre-season). Bogaerts is rated #6 by MLB.com and #4 by BA mid-season). Lee is better than Shields, but also four years older. The Royals control Shields for two years at $9 million for 2013 and $12 million for 2014 (if they exercise the team option). The Bosox would control Lee for the rest of 2013 and through 2016 (if Lee insists that 2016 be guaranteed). That would be $86 million owed Lee. If the Phils pick up half Lee's salary, the Bosox' annual cost for Lee would be close to the Royals' annual cost for Shields.

IMO, 3 1/3 years of Lee at ages 35-37 is more valuable than two years of Shields at ages 31 and 32 and the annual cost would be similar.

Guess it's time for a Monday morning funeral if there ever was one.

I was thankfully away most of the weekend, so I didn't see this debacle, only highlights (if you can call them that). I defended them for a long time, and I stand by defending them up until this point. But, right now, this team is completely, 100% lost. They came out in April flat. They came out of the AS break flat. Major changes need to be made, starting with the worst manager in baseball. The firing is 8 years too late, but better late than never.

Also, the Gonzalez move makes ZERO sense unless they're willing to start spending like the Yankees. The penultimate thing this team needs is another starting pitcher. The last think they need is another starter that makes a ton of money. Really dumb, unless they are willing to spend over the luxury tax.

Papelbon's quotes above are dead on. This is a guy who came to win. He didn't grow up a Phillies fan, he didn't get drafted by the Phillies, he didn't come up through their system. Why should he have any loyalty to a team that really let him down so far? Granted, he hasn't been as advertised, but this team flopped big time. I don't blame him for what he said. In fact, I would feel the same way if I was a free agent that signed with a "winner."

Billingsley - If you saw any of the Valdes start you wouldn't say that the "penultimate thing this team needs is another starting pitcher." But over paying for anyone is a bad idea.

I cannot remember the story but somebody referenced Rubes concept of building a deep core of starting pitching and defense. Because that's what got the team the WFS, right?

Isn't Rollins playing for records as good as playing to win? What's the difference. Besides it's one quote after the lowest point of the phillies since before 2006.

He didn't come here for this...and the Phillies shouldn't be paying for a guy who's lost 4-5 mph on his fastball in less than 2 years.

Cant wait to jettison him...its Billy Wagner all over again.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P&pitch=FA

We couldn't trade Papelbon if we wanted to...his velocity dropoff is a massive just MASSIVE red flag to anyone even considering him. he ended the 2011 season sitting 96 (touching 97) mph...the last few weeks he's been 90-91 mph.

His secondary stuff isn't good enough to make up for that loss of velocity.

yea god forbid jimmy wants to steal a lot of bases and hit a lot of HRs as a Phillie. What a jerk!

If Paps doesn't like it here why doesn't he tell the Phils he'll void the rest of his contract if they let him leave?
Oh,guess he doesn't want to leave that bad.

my favorite stat from last night:

Lugar kept his career ERA at 0.00 after walking in two runs and giving up a grandslam.

I enjoyed Garcia's line from last night as well. Had to do a little thinking to figure out what happened during the game seeing 4 runs, 2 walks, a HR, and a 0.00 era haha.

Ordinarily, I'd think losing the internet for 48 hours would be a bad thing but, I'm so glad I didn't see any of the last 2 games.

Lorecore - Nice post at 8:59.

"its wagner all over again"

Wagner post Phillies: 272.2 IP, 201 ERA+, 1.009 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, a .560 OPS against

And two bombs to "1 pitch swinging" Burrell.

To those posters who want Charlie fired, what exactly would be the point of doing that now? His contract is up at the end of this year. He's a goner anyway, there's no reason to can him before the year is over.

Unless you really feel that they will contend this seaason with a promoted Sandberg, which from the people who are clamouring for his firing are the same ones who want the team blown up, what would firing the manager do exactly?

And don't give me an excuse like "well let's see what we have in Sandberg for the last two months." That's crap. What exactly can you gain from watching a manager for the last two months that would help to convince you he's the guy going forward? I can see the value in letting a player such as Cody Asche get some PT in the bigs after the trade deadline, but where is the value in promoting a manager?

Cliff Lee for Zach Lee and Corey Seager. Let the Dodgers keep Pederson. Throw some money at them if you must. I'm open to making it a larger deal if they take a bloated contract of ours for Andre Ethier.

Chase Trillo - Trade a bloated contract of the Phillies for the bloated contract of Andre Ethier? The same Andre Ethier who is terrible against lefties?

It's now basically a race against the clock to put together as many deals as Rube can.

Let's hope he was smart enough to do as much groundwork as possible early on.

If Chase Utley had made the same comments as JRoll he'd be lauded for wanting to stay with the team through the worst of times, and set all sorts of team records.

Yup, that one RedBurb. Ethier's still light years better than the slop we are running out there in the OF. .241 vs. lefties this year isn't the end of the world and no one said he should play everyday vs. lefties). Btw, with your logic, we should run Domonic Brown out of town then too as he is only hitting .248 vs. lefties this season. I'd still would move one of our larger contracts for Ethier. I think he could surprise with a change of scenery.

There is zero reason to fire UC at this point...his contract is up in 2 months and the season is already a lost cause. Let him ride it out. He won a WS with us and was manager for one of the greatest runs in team history. Show him that much respect at least.

I am not the biggest fan of Manuel, but I agree he should be allowed to finish the season. Let Sandberg take the helm next year and please allow him to pick his own staff! Dubee and the hitting coaches need to go!

Outside of unrealistic scenarios, like getting Puig/Ryu/Kershaw, there's really no way the Dodgers could make me take Ethier's declining abilities and +$70M remaining contract.

All 3 of Zach Lee, Pederson, and Seager aren't even enough to offset taking on Ethier's deal.

Only way I see that happening is if they are willing to move their 16yr old lefty phenom, but thats about as unlikley as the names I mentioned above. Julio Urias is 16(!) and is dominating A ball already, unreal.

From the last thread:

"Ice~ You think lee goes? Why?
DPat- I just think there's been too much smoke the last few days to assume a fire isn't there. I admit it's all a hunch and I could be totally off-base."

Ice~ Don't think you're off base at all. Personally, I believe Gonzo was signed to replace Lee. I mentioned that. But given RAJ propensity for a strong rtotation (rightly so, you see, I've never disagreed with that presmise, I just want an offense to support it), isn't the trading of Lee going against what RAJ likes to do? Now, I wonder if a starter will come back in return. But, as I mentioned in the last thread, he'd better re-build & do it properly & quickly. Gotta go, work to do.

re: Urias

Does anyone know about the birth records of Mexico, are they supposed to be more accurate than a lot of the Caribbean nations?

16 yr old lefty throwing in the low 90s, with a 2.97 ERA and a 10.5 K/9 in 12 starts for a league with the average age just shy of 22 just sounds unbelievable.

Overall, USCIS has seriously cut down on the fake birth certificate issue when it comes to int'l signings. Sure, it still happens, but its far more rare than it was pre-9/11.

Hopefully yesterday was the lowpoint. That 6th inning was just a mess all around. Couple long thoughts:

1.) I still don't understand the vitriol towards Charlie Manuel. I think it is crazy that people are still saying he should've been fired years ago. Look- hate the guy all you want but do not for one second try to pretend like he was the wrong guy to lead these group of players. He led a good young core through a very successful run of baseball that saw the Phillies vault to the top tier of teams after years of being in the lower rung. The culture change had a lot to do with money but it also had to do with the talent on the field and the guy guiding that talent.

2.) I can understand why people dislike the Papelbon stuff because of his temperment but is what he said really all that different than those criticizing him have said about the organization over the past 18 months? People have been clamoring for an entire change and Papelbon mentioned that maybe the Phillies need to do what Boston did and clean house up and down. It is possible that is the case. Also, what do you expect a player to say? I'm fine with losing. Of course he wants to be on a winning team, and no one would blame him if he asked to be traded.

The contract thing is so dumb to be put on him as well. He was offered a deal and he took it. And yes he costs a lot of money but in his time here he has put up a 2.36 ERA with a 168 ERA+ going 58 of 67 on save opportunities. It isn't his fault we are not winning.

3.) I don't think being bad this year means we are automatically bad next year. It does mean that Amaro needs to do some work this deadline and in the winter to shore up some depth for this team so we have a chance to absorb some losses as they happen. It wasn't bad to gamble that HHU stay healthy this year, but it was bad to not hedge that bet some by bringing in more depth.

Now- let's take Amaro at his word and he isn't looking to trade Lee and Papelbon. That would mean next season we have a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Gonzalez, probably a Lannan back on a deal, and then someone like Pettibone in the 5 hole.

Lineup would be very similar to what you see now with Asche/Frandsen replacing M Young at third and someone replacing Delmon Young in right. Or signing some one in left and slotting Dom Brown over in right. Shore some pieces up on the bench and you have a competitive team which is what you need. Again though- I don't know that I trust Amaro to pull the right strings.

Chase Trillo - I didn't say to run a guy out of town for being terrible against lefties. Lorecore summarized my feelings entirely above. There's no reason to get back Ethier in a deal when you are trying to get rid of bloated contracts.

TTI: We are going to be bad next year.

I know it's counter-intuitive, but the quickest way back to contention is not to hold on, but to sell. Sell for prospects, young players, Clout-type guys who are already in the majors, cash, salary relief, etc.

***That would mean next season we have a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Gonzalez, probably a Lannan back on a deal, and then someone like Pettibone in the 5 hole.***

Are you non-tendering Kendrick in that scenario? He's still under team control for 2014 but will likely cost around $7-8 million in arbitration.

tti: did you purposely omit Kendrick from next year rotation, or just oversight? If so, you think he'll get dealt?

Heyman says Phils are telling teams no trade for Utley, and working on an extension with him.

Part of me thinks its great that Utley will be a Phillie for life (or close to it). The other part of me says this is a terrible baseball decision that shows they have no clue what they need to do to rebuild.

tti: agree with you mostly across the board, except for the part where you said the lineup will be almost the same as this year with a couple changes and bench upgrades - and you qualify that as 'competitive'.

Their offense is the worst in the NL outside Miami. You can't just patch up a few spots on the bench and add another corner OF to create a competitive lineup.

Rollins playing for records is NOT the same as trying to win. When you play for records, that supercedes decision making that might be beneficial to the team to win. E.G. - Jimmy Rollins comes up to bat with runners on second and third, two out, down by 2 in the 5th or sixth inning. A base hit to the outfield should score 2 runs to tie. JRoll, trying to be hero and add to his career HR total (which will probably be the most for a Phil's SS) uppercuts one and pops out to second to end the threat. A player like Derek Jeter KNOWS the situation, inside outs his swing, just lays the bat on the ball and will get a base hit to right to tie the game. SELFLESSNESS. Jimmy does not know what the meaning is. He wants to bat leadoff, but he doesn't bat like one. He tries to hit like a three or four hole hitter, but doesn't have the ability to...just designate him for assignment and eat that salary, he is the cancer...

Bad this year does not automatically mean bad next year. To believe that you have to believe that a healthy team this year would've been completely terrible as well. This season turned when Revere and to a smaller extent Brown went down. We have no organizational depth right now. That is the issue for me. If that can be improved I think we are in the 77-82 win territory before you make any moves at the trade deadline or anything. And that is dependent to me on who you'd bring in to play the positions in the outfield next year.

NEPP/Lorecore: I'm of two minds on Kendrick. I would not be opposed to trading him, but I don't know what he gets you. I could see him being moved in the off-season though. To me, I think you can find a pitcher somewhere that can give you Kendrick's numbers for a few million dollars less a year. Kendrick feels like he is reaching a point where his pitching skill is canceled out by the cost of keeping him.

DFA Rollins? Brilliant!

Rollins is the core guy that I can most envision being dealt this week. Question is whether other teams perceive him as being worth the cost this year and next. Pittsburgh, Oakland, St. Louis, all could use a solid glove, playoff-experienced, decent 6 hole hitting short stop as a piece over the balance of his contract.

Tigers acquire reliever Veras from Astros. Was having a good year for Houston and is controlled on a $3M team option next year.

Gave up Danry Vaquez - 19yr old in A ball, having solid year. Most reports had him anywhere from 5th to 10th on their farm, mostly because of his upside as a hitter moreso than performance. PTBNL as well.

If Joe Nathan hits the market, Papelbon's value is bottoming out.

TTI: You're right that bad this year does not mean bad next year.

Bad next year is because there's no good young players (outside of Brown) and all declining old players on the roster.

Where on earth do you see "good" coming from next year?

If Utley is being signed to finish his career in Philly, Rollins is a guy who deserves the same honor.

Bring back Matt Stairs while we're at it.


If Joe Nathan hits the market, Papelbon's value is bottoming out.

Posted by: lorecore | Monday, July 29, 2013 at 10:35 AM

His value bottomed out when he was being heavily scouted in June by both Bos and DET and he proceeded to blow 4 saves in a row. The fact that his velocity is down another 2 mph since that abortion of a weekend is just the icing on the cake. Nobody is giving up anything of value for Papelbon unless we eat most of his contract...and at that point, trading him doesnt even make any sense.


If Utley is being signed to finish his career in Philly, Rollins is a guy who deserves the same honor.

Posted by: jbird | Monday, July 29, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Except for the fact that Utley is still producing at an elite level while Rollins has been near replacement level this year with an across-the-board decline in his skillset (no power, no speed, and he's lost a big step defensively).

lorecore: In my scenario Ruiz is gone, D Young is gone as well as M Young. Nix is gone as well.

Just a few days ago the Phillies were 9th in the league in runs scored. They have now dropped after getting shelled all weekend (and scoring 1 run against 2 very good pitchers in Fister and Scherzer). By the end of the year I still would venture a guess they are middle of the pack.

I think it would be not all that hard to find guys that upgrade all of those four spots.

So we're now throwing out the games where they play good pitchers for runs scored?

This is up there with saying our Runs Against isn't accurate because our middle relief sucks...

BTW, we're down to the 2nd worst record in the NL by Pythagorean thanks to this wonderful week of baseball. Only the Fish are worse.

Ethier has a .903 career OPS against RHP and is a year removed from a 3.8 bWAR season.

He's obviously not an ideal choice for an OF, but the notion that his days as a productive OF are completely behind him at age 31 will most likely be proven incorrect. I don't think you could get a much better platoon partner for Mayberry, playing 70% of the time.

I wouldn't ask to take on all of his deal, but if the Dodgers absorb Lee's deal AND give you their top 3 guys (which is what I would ask for), it would be tough to ask them to absorb much of Ethier's deal.

I'm torn on bringing Utley back as well. I went him to be a Phillie for life, but getting some value for him in a trade-a "Major league ready" prospect or 2 would be great. T

The Dodgers make something like $340 million a year just on their television contract.

They could easily absorb all that salary and pay the luxury tax and go buy a huge yacht for hooker/cocaine parties and they'd still be making a nice profit.

"PTBNL as well."

Castellanos

Rumors that now the Orioles are targeting Michael Young. He's getting himself a decent amount of attention - i can't possibly see how he doesn't get moved at the deadline.

Fair enough RedBurb. Just trying to find a way to give this team a new look with a veteran or two, besides the young guys we hopefully land.


"PTBNL as well."

Castellanos

Posted by: Iceman | Monday, July 29, 2013 at 10:47 AM

I'm pretty sure that Rube isnt the GM of the Tigers so that's not very likely.

Orioles apparently are willing to make Dylan Bundy available for the right deal.

Which basically means Cliff Lee. Do it, Rube.

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