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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

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Iglesias is a better version of Galvis. Similar profile, but a little bit better defensively and offensively.

No one was going to give up top prospects and take all the money on Lee. If the Red Sox were actually willing to give up Bradley in a package for Lee (which I don't believe), *and* take on Lee's whole contract, the Phillies would have been wise to do it.

When they eventually do trade Lee, they won't get as good a player as Bradley back in return.

Trading for Lee seems a very un-Cardinal thing to do. They have a knack for sticking any old re-tread or non-prospect rookie into the rotation and getting a sub-4 era out of him.

Repost:

TTI: ... And the count on Asche's pop-up, and the lack of any detail or insight beyond what any of us could do with a box score, and the clear disinterest in reading the comments and/or fixing the errors...

In fact, could someone just get JW to ask them to hand the keys over to lorecore, NEPP, BAP, and Jack (comic relief)? They spend enough time here anyway, how much more effort would it take to just write the headers and add the Jump to Newest Comments button?

Thinking about getting Oscar Taveras (until midnight tonight) is like buying a lottery ticket when powerball is like $500 Mill. I know rationally it ain't gonna happen. But a guy's gotta drool occasionally right?

We'd be younger and more athletic.

Good writeup Corey.

What is everyone's fascination with freddy galvis? His bat is never going to play in the big leagues.

Bogaerts was never out there except in Phils fans dreams.

I disagree, you need to think how long will Lee remain effective? His he still going to be the same pitcher in 2 years? So a deal around Iglesias, Bradley, Workman and one of their other prospect pitchers would have made sense. I do not hate that they kept him, but I think that he will be moved in the offseason then because it does not make sense to hold onto him.

How do you guys know that Bradley was even on the table? Ellsbury is a FA so the Sox may let him walk and Bradley fills in for him.

I don't believe Bradley was made available for Lee.

If he was, the Phillies should've pulled the trigger. But, again, I don't think he was.

WIP just brought up a good point. With Utley almost resigning for a 2 year with a 3rd vesting, no Lee trade, Ruiz possibly coming back, it is just another year of the same team.

The same old declining non playoff .500 ball club. Goes to show how bad some of those trades RAJ pulled off really screwed this club.

no quarrels with seidman, his stuff is usually very good.

Per Jon Heyman:

"The Red Sox are said now to have in reality been a "non factor" for Cliff Lee before they landed Jake Peavy, and baseball people are highly doubtful anyone would meet the supposed Phillies' asking price of three top prospects for a pitcher who has $70 million guaranteed to go through 2015.

Locking up Utley2B looking at $13M a year

"No one's going to do that," one executive said.

"I don't know of a team in baseball that would [do] that. Taking on that much money and giving up three legit prospects seems like a stretch for anyone," another executive said."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22950638/red-sox-werent-seriously-on-lee-few-see-anyone-meeting-philly-price

What I read indicated Bogaerts, Bradley, Cecchini were all off the table as far as Boston was concerned.

Utley rumored to be offered 2yr/$26M with 3rd year option.

Lorecore: True, though he's not around enough...

Forgot Andy in my list of the BL Collective Vanguard, if only for the haikus.

Agree with Alex here. We don't know how long 34 year old Lee will remain effective. His value could be at its highest now (salary aside).

And no, we're not sure who would have been in Boston's package, but I still think we could have received Bogaerts/Bradley/Workman/Ranaudo if we would taken on a chunk of Lee's salary. Maybe 50% of it.

And you know what? Why does money even matter to us fans? Who cares what the organization spends? Even if we were paying 12.5M next year and the following year to Boston, we'd have some young talent under team control making less than 500K. What's the fuss over paying half of Lee's salary to Boston?

"WEDNESDAY: The two sides are discussing a three-year deal or two-year deal (plus a vesting option) for around $13MM per season, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Phillies consider Utley to be their franchise player and have every intention of keeping him around."

So 2/26 with a vesting option for 2016? I would be happy with that.

"WIP just brought up a good point."

Words that never should go together.

"What's the fuss over paying half of Lee's salary to Boston?"

I don't think any of us fans cared how much of Lee's salary the Phils would pick up. I would guess that ownership cares A LOT how much money they are paying someone to play for a different team.

I think there's a question that might never get answered, which is that for all the crap we give Amaro (and most of it is justified), I wonder how much ownership has a say in what's going on.

As in, I wonder if Amaro is telling them we need to rebuild and ownership is saying no.

Chris, why can't it be seen as an investment in future assets? I just don't understand why it's that big of a deal to Montgomery, Giles and co. It's done all the time.

FYI - Kyle Kendrick has a lower ERA than Jake Peavy this season.

There's been some confusion. It wasn't Jackie Bradley Jr., the Sox made available. It was Jackie Chiles Jr.

Galvis is one of the best defensive prospects in baseball. But that about it... Galvis is a future gold glover. Its too bad his hitting isn't up to caliber

I am still wondering who the Phillies could get to improve the lineup next year.
Looking at the expected Free Agent list I really only see obvious upgrades to OF (and McCann).

At C, Ruiz is only obviously beat by McCann and Salty?
Howard is stuck at 1B so just platooning with Mayberry/Ruf is probably the only improvement option.
Any FA 2B better than Utley (except Cano)?
Any FA SS better than Rollins, with Peralta suspended?
Any FA 3B at all? (Chavez, Polanco, Youkilis might be the 'best')
Brown will either be in LF or RF.
Revere has little value away from CF. Could improve upon him but what could Phillies get back in Revere trade? Granderson might be undervalued. Ellsbury and Choo are headliners.

Since Phillies are not going to get a stud young OF in a trade today, that leaves RF/LF again in the free agent market.
Beltran, Pence, (suspended Cruz), Hart, Morse, Ibanez (how good has he been since leaving). Willingham may finally be tradeable since he's hurt.
At this point, I agree with prior commenters that Corey Hart would be my target. He is probably Pence-like (high K, good power, used to have speed) but cheaper.

Jack, I'm sure Montgomery and Giles have a HUGE say. Keeping a bunch of guys in their 30's who helped you win a World Series 5 years ago just seems like something two old men in suits would love to do.

Chris, why can't it be seen as an investment in future assets? I just don't understand why it's that big of a deal to Montgomery, Giles and co. It's done all the time.

Posted by: Mike Dizney | Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:27 AM

Well, from my understanding Gillick had to fight hard to convince ownership to pay a large chunk of Thome's salary when they traded him, they were unhappy about it for years, and don't want to do it again.

RAJ has a one track mind. If he wants a player there is no limit to what he will do to get him.
On the other hand as many have said, He doesn't know how to sell. Thinks he's on the other end and wants the world.
He'll give away but no one else is dumb enough to do it in return.
How many incentives do you think will be in Utz's contract.Love him,but 13 MIL to a guy who could easily miss part or all of a year,big gamble.

I think the parallel w/ the James shields deal kinda falls apart when you compare lee & shields contracts. Lee is probably the better pitcher (that might be debatable in 2015 as he ages) but Sheilds made 9 mil last year and 12 next year in his prime years. Lee is owed 62.5 minimum for the next 2 years ages 35-37 (including buyout) with a 15 mil decision on 2016 at age 38. The phillies should be offering to kick in lots of money to make the deals parallel on math.

Yeah, the ownership group is well known for beign upset with paying salaries of players/coaches who aren't donning a Phillies uniform.

The thing about kicking in money kinda falls apart when you realize this is the Red Sox we're talking about. They can afford to take on that salary and not miss a beat.

What makes Iglesias a better bat than Freddy Galvis?

Iglesias in 916 AAA plate appearances:
244/296/292

Galvis has significantly fewer AAA plate appearances (255), but put up this line:
277/308/374

If you look at just age 20 and older, you have a similar PA total almost primarily at the AA and AAA level:

Iglesias in 1209 PAs:
257/307/314
Galvis in 1327 PAs:
253/297/351

Don't be fooled by Iglesias' season so far. It's fueled by a .376 BABIP and 18% of his hits are infield singles (Iglesias does not have great speed, never stole more than 13 bases in a season). Iglesias' last 38 games is 256/301/301. That's more likely the offensive player he is than his first 25 games.

To put it simply, if you didn't want to read my long post:

Freddy Galvis and Jose Iglesias are pretty the same prospect. Same age. Both are known more for their glove than their bat. Neither has great speed.

we'll never know, but if the Phillies' reluctance to pay portions of player salary was the reason why the deals fell thru, then they are stupid.

Again, no way to tell what really went down outside the initial first offers of 'i want everything' every team always makes.

Altho have to admit, a large part of me has been conditioned to assume Amaro is stupid and that's likely what did happen.

And you don't trade for Iglesias when you have Galvis, Quinn and Crawford in your farm system.

One other big note...

If you can't get the prospect package you want for Lee right now, there are still at least two more bites at that apple.

Off season
Next year's trade deadline

Lee could still go if the right package becomes available.

And that is the difference in Iglesias. He HAS hit very well in the majors. Yes it is BABIP driven and that is why Boston is very smart to trade him now. He will still be great defensively and now there is a chance he could actually hit.

If Galvis was hitting >.300 he'd still be in the bigs. But he didn't and so his value is still that of a utility infielder.

Wil Myers was considered a huge overpay for a team that was unlikely to contend. TB made out like bandits.

WIP is right, this is shaping up to be essentially the same team next year. Go ahead, bring in Corey Hart, does Corey Hart get this team to the playoffs? Is Hart likely to play better than Ruf is right now? This is the mid-80's & 1994 all over again. Bunch of guys who won get contracts they can't live up to and it handicaps a team that has no help on the way from a middling farm system.

Altho have to admit, a large part of me has been conditioned to assume Amaro is stupid and that's likely what did happen.

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:38 AM

I've been an Amaro supporter up until this week. And even though I blame the lack of selling on the ownership group, I still fault Amaro for not being able to sell them on a new future.

I really hope Boston misses the playoffs, or loses a 1 game playoff with Peavy starting. Amaro should already have that text/email drafted and ready to send to Cherington as soon as it happens.

clout: That's lewd, lascivious, salacious, outrageous.

I could actually see a scenario in which a contending team loses one of its top pitchers to injury & Lee ends up getting traded in August. He would definitely clear waivers.

At this point, I'd like to see Manuel announce his retirement this week. Let Sandberg take the top spot with the current staff so he can see who he wants to keep.

Phillies can keep Manuel as a consultant to the Front Office and give his opinion of the team without having to manage them daily.

It is going to be much more difficult to turnover the roster than to change the manager. Howard, Utley, Rollins are here for the next couple years. That is the momentum the Phillies are going to have to shift with improvements to the other 5 spots.

Last year the Dodgers claimed Lee. Chances are someone would claim him because they know the Phils are very unlikely to give him away for nothing.

Jack: Murphy had a pretty good column addressing that topic the other day. Ownership has to strike a balance because if they follow the path that you, lorecore and most other posters here advcocate (dump all the vets for whatever we can get ASAP) it is quite likely revs will take a huge hit. They'd like to rebuild while at the same time keeping revs as high as possible. That's a very tough tightrope.

Not sure it was offered, but I would've taken Iglesias and JMJ for Lee, and would've leaped at a better package.

Lee is due 31 mil/year the next two years (assuming his option vests) and 15 for his age 37 season.

In return, he gives you ace pitching the rest of this year and probably next year, and then you hope he's still a good pitcher in 2015 and 2016.

In other words, Lee's contract makes makes sense for a team built to win in 2013 and 2014. That's not us.

Of course, in my last post JMJ should be JBJ.

With Peavy going to Boston yesterday, Lee won't be moved (unless to L.A.). But don't see that happening. Lee staying is ok with me. Their rotation of Lee, Hamels, Doc, KK, & Gonzo would be very formidable indeed & we could very possible see that THIS year.

Let's face it, RAJ made his move when he signed Gonzo. He's right not to move Lee (although I thought Lee would be gone after the Gonzo signing) unless he got EXACTLY what he wanted. It shows he's keeping a level head.

despite how much clout has advocated trading lee for salary relief, I am glad Ruben is smarter than that.

If ownership really is determined to try and contend in 2014, they are going to have to open up the purse-strings. There's no way to put basically the same team on the field and shop the bargain-basement FAs again and have any chance at the NL East title.

clout: The revenue drop argument assumes fans prefer to see familiar names on the field rather than new blood/young talent.

Not buying it.

Clout: Revenue is going to take a hit regardless, because the team isn't going to be good, and anyway, any difference in revenue loss would be offset by lower costs on a rebuilding team. It makes more financial sense to rebuild than to keep throwing money at a mediocre team, I would think.

I also think the importance of the TV negotiations are overblown. The TV companies saw what a good Phillies team did in terms of viewership. They're making a long-term contract, not a contract just for 2015 and 2016. They're basing their negotiations on sophisticated models that account for ebbs and flows in the team's success and eyeballs, and also recognize that even a bad Phillies team draws plenty of viewership. One down year in 2014 (which, again, is going to happen anyway) is not going to suddenly result in a huge drop in the price the TV network pays.

Lore~ Hate to disagree with you. But I think paying part of a player's salary is the right thing to do only in certain situations, not to move Lee. This move back-fired with the Thome deal. They were on the hook for 6 mil a year for 3 years.

Let's say the Phils were to pay 1/2 Lee's salary to move him, ok fine. If Gonzo doesn't work out, then you've still gotta replace Lee and that won't be cheap. If you've gotta pay lee, ypu might as well keep him. Refer to my previous post about the rotation.

"Chances are someone would claim him because they know the Phils are very unlikely to give him away for nothing."

Good point. I guess you're probably right. Some team will likely call the Phillies' bluff, claim him, & then have the next month to try to work a trade. When the dust settles, he'll still be a Phillie.

Has Kendrick's name been brought up in trade rumors?

I have a feeling this team is going to go 6-0 this week; which in turn will fill up the optimists band wagon only to come crashing down in late august.

R.A (friggin') Dickey landed Travis d'Arnaud (#6 MLB.com) and Noah Syndergaard (#29 MLB.com). 'Nuff said.

I'm skeptical that the Phillies will trade Lee in the offseason, because I think between now and then they will delude themselves again into trying to contend next season.

After reading PhxPhilly's post, he's convinced me that our line-up is solid except for the Nixberry position. Why is it, if our position players (according to PhxPhilly) are so good, we can't score any runs? It must be that manager and coaches' fault.

If the Phillies kick in for Lee's contract about what they paid on Thome's contract, about 7 mil per season for the next two-three seasons, they'd be trading an ace who is essentially signed to a low end ace deal. That would be enough to get two stud prospects from a team who needs an ace.

If LA would do two of their top three prospects and another lottery ticket prospect, that would be a reasonable deal.

If ownership doesn't like playing players to play for other teams, then they should really hate paying players to SUCK for the Phillies. But I suppose not.

Jack: 100% agreed. Phils won't think they are sellers again until the final games leading up to July 31 2014.

"WIP just brought up a good point. With Utley almost resigning for a 2 year with a 3rd vesting, no Lee trade, Ruiz possibly coming back, it is just another year of the same team."


Pretty pathetic, isn't it?

The guy who needs to be traded is Amaro.

Hey Seidman...you want the Phils to sell. If you don't sell Utley or Lee, then exactly how are you going to do that? Rollins doesn't want to go anywhere. Papelbon is unwanted. Howard's contract is a ripping joke. Halladay is hurt and has a bad contract. Most of the rest of the roster wouldn't net you a bag of balls.

How are you going to get any better or ease your financial situation or improve your farm system (for future moves that you can't make without the solid prospects to get things done) without changing things up?

Keeping Lee is the wrong move. And gambling on being able to move him in the off-season or next year at this time is a bad gamble too. This just in...pitchers get hurt. And older pitchers start pitching worse. Move em' when you can.

Well, the good news is if Utley, Rollins and Howard can manage to stay on the field half of the time for the next few years they should own a bunch of Phillie records.

Dpat: Don't think of it as paying Lee's salary, think of it as paying $10 mil a year (or whatever) for the prospects you're getting... Boegarts would be worth that if he comes as advertised...

"R.A (friggin') Dickey landed Travis d'Arnaud (#6 MLB.com) and Noah Syndergaard (#29 MLB.com)."

Well, over the last 3 years before the trade, Dickey was, arguably, a better pitcher than Lee and he came with a much lower price tag. Granted, he was really old but, since he's a knuckleball pitcher, age isn't as big a deal. I wouldn't expect to do any better for Lee than the Mets did for Dickey. I'd expect to do slightly worse.

" I'd expect to do slightly worse."

BAP's theory of life in a nutshell.

Dpat: Don't think of it as paying Lee's salary, think of it as paying $10 mil a year (or whatever) for the prospects you're getting... Boegarts would be worth that if he comes as advertised...

Posted by: The Perils of Thinking | Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Yes, exactly. Although I get the feeling the ownership group refuses to see it that way.

Pretty frustrating stuff.

Agreed. Salary is not an issue at all to either of these teams. The fact that he's 34 is all that would make the trade fair from the Phillies perspective. There's no such thing as a can't-miss prospect after all.

Cliff Lee's location is unreal enough that you can see him having a Moyer-esque twilight in him. He has some of the best playoff chops among current active, healthy pitchers. He's signed for 2.5 years. He absolutely destroys the Yankees.

It's understandable that the Red Sox weren't willing to give their first born, but it's equally understandable that the Phillies wouldn't part with Lee for less. After all, they can always trade him again next year.

bap - I cannot believe that you just argued, basically, that RA Dickey is better than Cliff Lee.

"There's no such thing as a can't-miss prospect after all."

And there's no such thing as a can't-miss 35-year old pitcher, either.

If you had both pitchers and both were rested and available for the seventh game of the WS would you really start Dickey?

That would be a fantastic deal for Utley...the 2/26 with a vesting option...3/39 is also still fair.

I don't know how people can look at the bullpen the Phillies took into the year and still say salary isn't an issue, it doesn't matter how much the players make, it's not our money, etc.

@BAP:

2010-12

RA Dickey: 2.95 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 3.12 K/BB
Cliff Lee: 2.89 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, 139 ERA+, 7.16 K/BB

Andy: I, personally, think Lee is better. But there's no getting away from the fact that Dickey had phenomenal numbers from 2010 to 2012.

***In fact, could someone just get JW to ask them to hand the keys over to lorecore, NEPP, BAP, and Jack (comic relief)? They spend enough time here anyway, how much more effort would it take to just write the headers and add the Jump to Newest Comments button***

Running a daily blog is a lot harder than you think...takes a ton of dedication and its pretty much a thankless job.

"Cliff Lee's location is unreal enough that you can see him having a Moyer-esque twilight in him. He has some of the best playoff chops among current active, healthy pitchers. "

Didn't we say this about Roy Halladay just a few years ago? Don't fool yourself; you're hoping for a low probability event.

BAP - 2010-2012 average season:

Lee 30 GS 219 IP 210 K 139 ERA+ 1.047 WHIP 7.16 SO/BB

Dickey 30 GS 206 IP 156 K 129 ERA+ 1.115 WHIP 3.12 K/BB

Don't see how Dickey was, in any way, arguably better than Lee over the 3 years prior to the Dickey trade.

Dickie: Well, ok. Lee was better. But Lee isn't coming off a Cy Young season the way Dickey was. And Dickey didn't cost $25M per year.

My only point is, I don't think you can just say: Dickey yielded 2 top 30 prospects so Lee is worth more. I mean, clearly he isn't or someone would have offered more for him. As my appraiser friend likes to say, "When a house sells for X dollars, that is, by definition, what it's worth."

I don't think Dickie Thong's point was that they should have gotten more than 2 top 30 prospects, just that a lesser pitcher than Lee netted that return, there's no reason Lee should be traded for a bunch of crap just to jettison him.

At least that was my interpretation...

I think many were anchored by Dickey's 2012 season, and without appropriate comparables, Toronto assumed Dickey would at least maintain or be close to the level he was in 2012. Obviously Toronto was wrong.

Careers like Moyer's are a novelty for a reason...it's almost a unique event, and VERY unlikely for any other player to have a similar career arc.

Lee is likely to decline next year, and again the next season. It's just the way nature works.

If the Phillies made Lee only cost ~$10M a year, then they easily could demand two top #30's - at least logic would assume.

The Dickey trade showed that AA is not nearly as smart of a GM as he thought he was...

It was also a desperation move in a year where he thought both the BoSox and Yankees would be weak so maybe Toronto would finally have a shot at the playoffs.

If people were expecting a return like Bogaerts or Taveras for Lee, they're going to be massively disappointed when Lee eventually does get traded.

"a lesser pitcher than Lee netted that return, there's no reason Lee should be traded for a bunch of crap just to jettison him."

Chris: On that I agree.

Yadi Molina to the DL for the Cards.

Should absolutely see if they're willing to give up something for Chooch. I doubt it (they'll probably go with more of a traditional backup because Molina isn't out for the year), but it's worth a shot.

Salary is always an issue. Whether you have a 75 or 175 payroll, there's a limit somewhere and you're trying to optimize your roster within that constraint.

175 million seems like a lot, but at 25 a pop, that will get you 7 Howards and Lees.

Jack - you're right. But for the rest of today I'm daydreaming about an OF with Brown and Taveras.

There is zero chance the Cardinals are going to give up Taveras. He's their starting RF next year when Beltran leaves. Or they'll put him in CF with Craig in RF and Adams at 1B. This is their MO...not taking on massive salaries but using their great system to fill holes.

@Chris in VT

That is exactly the point I was trying to make.

NEPP: "This is their MO...not taking on massive salaries but using their great system to fill holes."

But Jake said that the only way to compete was to spend huge amounts of money on free agents. I'm confused.

Surprisingly, that is incorrect.

fWAR makes Lee look even better over that period (7.0, 6.5, 4.9) than Dickey (2.6, 2.2, 4.5), and it could easily be argued that the Cliffie was more deserving of that 2012 CY, gaudy win total excluded. But difference in salary would explain a difference in prospect return, for sure.

I really like the Dickey story and found him easy to root for last year. I haven't watched much AL ball this season; what's been his problem? As simple as age-related decline? Or was it arcane and mysterious, like the dome negating his knuckler's stochastic walk?

Jack - Your sell position on Lee is clear. So let me ask, if he was hypothetically traded for Iglesias and Garcia would you be happy with that return?

NEPP - Don't burst my bubble. Wait until midnight.

Per MLBTraderumors - The Cardinals are seeking catching help.

Should've claimed Quintero!

*** I haven't watched much AL ball this season; what's been his problem?***

You're just seeing the difference between the NL East and a very pitcher friendly park and the AL East in a not so pitcher friendly park.

Andy - You know the deadline is at 4 pm right?

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