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Friday, July 12, 2013

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~sigh~

some text

***repost*** I miss Bruntlett's dingers and runs scored in WS games. And his unassisted triple plays.

NEPP to the rescue.

I'm wondering if Chase is still going to sit.

Gives a day off for Bastardo and Papelbon which helps (Utley too) but a doubleheader increases the likelihood of some of the Phils' crappy middle relievers appearing. Call it a wash.

Hopefully a split tomorrow and Hamels continues his recent strong string of starts to get a split and go into the break at .500.

If one were to sit Utley, one game of a DH would be the ideal spot to do it.

Anyone know why Quinn is on the DL?

He was hit by a pitch and broke his wrist.

He's expected to be back in mid to late August so his season is basically done.

And the 26th man is...

Mets announced they're skipping Harvey's first start after the break, which is against the Phils. Huge break.

And the 26th man is...

Posted by: CS | Friday, July 12, 2013 at 07:52 PM

I think we all know it'll be Mini Mart.


Seriously though, I'd imagine they'll pick one of the crappy relief options in AAA (Rosenberg, Aumont, etc)

It's typically a RP. Gotta believe it's BJ, or Robles with the way the rotation fell.

We need good SP from Pettibone & Hamels tomorrow so that we don't have to see any more of the BP than possible. Yes, we need good SP every night for the same reason, but MG's point is a good one: "a doubleheader increases the likelihood of some of the Phils' crappy middle relievers appearing".

Ugh.

I remember hearing that it's very hard to win both games of a DH. I can't confirm this, but I heard it from a commentator or announcer or reporter. So a split is probably the most realistic expectation for tomorrow, hoping for a win on Sunday.

"b_a_p -- any legal recourse here for honorable posters?"

In a word: no. I actually had a case very similar. An investment brokerage firm tried to silence a guy who was badmouthing the firm on an Internet message board. The firm served a subpoena on Yahoo!, seeking to learn the identity behind the screen name (since you can't sue a screen name). The district court quashed the subpoena on the ground that the comments were protected by the First Amendment.

Beerleaguer is essentially a message board. All of us are posting anonymously to begin with, & we don't have a copyright on our user names. And comments on message boards cannot be defamatory because, given the context, no reasonable reader can construe the comments as assertions of fact. If cut_fastball wrote, "BAP's real name is Tom Smith and he kills kittens," no reasonable person would take that as true; they'd just take it to mean, "cut_fastball doesn't like BAP."

That said, Comcast is not the government and it goes without saying that someone who runs the blog is allowed to screen posts or block posters. And they should certainly do so to fake clout. As well as fake NEPP, Jack, lorecore, BAP, Fatalotti, and Iceman -- all of whom, I suspect, are the same person.

Thanks, NEPP. My first thought when I saw the game was postponed was, "I hope they pull out Bruntlett."

Its ironic because NEPP is actually my legal name...

Thanks,literally a tough break. Wonder if they would move Crawford up.Seems like a big gamble.

I doubt they'd mess with Crawford like that...being a HS guy and all.

He might double jump to Lakewood next year though if he continues his hot start in Rookie Ball. That wouldn't be ridiculous. I also suspect that Quinn will be a CF in Lakewood next year FWIW.

Excuse me, a CF in Clearwater for Quinn, not Lakewood. He hasn't excelled obviously but I doubt they'd make him repeat a level.

I, however, am an asset to this blog.

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 24m
So it hasn't gone so well for Stephen Strasburg in Miami tonight. http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=330712128 … ERA of 63.00 for the evening, so far.

test 1,2,3

Jarred Cosart's major league debut so far: 6 innings, 0 hits.

So, MG doesn't think the Phil's have readily tradeable commodities? Interesting.

Thanks, b_a_p - clout's fun to read, and an inspiration with regards to learning about scouting and MiLB players. He deserves better.

Hopefully, moving forward, we find business as usual - the usual bickering.

No hitter for Cosart through 6

So much for amaro's trades not biting him in the butt...

You kinda knew with the group of prospects incl Cosart & Singleton leaving Phila -- this day would come

Readily tradeable? No. Utley if he is healthy and has no issues passing a physical. Lee and Papelbon both have limited no trade clauses and a ton of money due.

If you want great prospects for Lee and Papelbon, you will have to eat salary, especially for Papelbon, whose value is much less. I would trade Papelbon. But would keep Lee.

I have come to believe that trading Utley would be a mistake. If he won't stay on a team friendly contract for two years, then you make him the qualifying offer and hope he takes it. But at least he gets you a pick.

The Young brothers can go today. What would you get back? Who knows?

Seriously though, if the BL meet up ever happens, I'm pretty sure I'd have to call everyone by their handle.

'NEPP, the next one's on me.'

I finally have a night to watch a game due to the rain and they postpone it due to rain. I've also been an asset to the blog.

D. Young gets you back a fringe prospect at A/AA kind of like Thome did last year.

Sadly, he's hit enough to not be going anywhere. It would be better for him and the team though if he could be traded to an AL club where he could start as a DH.

As horrible as he looks in the field and on the basepaths, he's hit enough to stick at the MLB level especially given how offensive stats again where a .750 OPS/18-20 HRs out of a full-time starter at DH is acceptable if the price is right.

Except for the Phillies bullpen being lousy, this may be the best time ever to have a doubleheader. They won't have to mess up their rotation at all to keep everyone rested. Now, if only Cliffie does not pitch in the all star game, everything will line up perfectly.

Cosart: 91 pitches, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO

~shakes head~

Cosart just walked the leadoff hitter in the 9th...I'm guessing the Astros dont have a Closer so they're letting him try for the CG SO.

+275, Jarred Cosart I love you.

If you laid money on that line....good for you, that's awesome.

I'm no gambler, but I bet if you took +275 every time you could no matter what on an MLB game, you'd be better off than most.

If you want a laugh, go back through the late-July 2011 reader analysis thread on the Pence trade. My guess is a lot of people on here will be surprised by what their opinion was at the time.

We were probably mostly for it...which is why we're not qualified to be GMs...we expect more out of the guys getting paid to make such moves....same as asking me to perform a triple bypass instead of using a cardiologist.

Though I remember some of us were appalled when we found out that Santana was the PTBNL.

dh phils: thats my theory, only I use +205 as my criteria, since +275 basically never happens.

And alas, it doesn't really profit that much, or at all sometimes. And I mean, I don't bet every single game (thank god) so I can't even claim the system works or not since I am not an addict enough.

and oh yea...the f'n stros are going to screw me anyway!

Iceman, ironically, I was violently against the Pence trade even at the time. So I've been consistent on that.

yyeeaaaaa....

Now I need the Rockies to beat Kershaw at +230 for a very good wkend.

the end time approached
the flashing gnome was missing
but NEPP saved us all

Dont get me wrong, I would LOVE to have Hunter Pence on our team. I just balk at massively overpaying for him.

Pence is exactly the type of player Championship teams need to support their core group. Still, overpaying for a complimentary player is royally stupid.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 08:50 PM

I cant believe we're paying that much for Pence.

We dont win a WS this year or next, that deal will live in infamy for a long time.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 08:54 PM

I'm so sick of hearing "this team is built to win now". Its only built that way if they want it to be. We could just as easily be the Red Sox or Yankees rather than the late 90s Indians. We're going with the latter route in some sort of sick self-fulfilling prophecy.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 09:07 PM

Too sad and funny...completely accurate and I got hammered for it at the time.

The craziest thing about that Pence thread is that both Iceman and clout agreed with something I posted. On rare occasion, I get one of them to agree with me. But both in the same thread? I'm sure that must be the only time it has ever happened. Must have been the fake clout.

iceman: I never liked the Pence deal, but only mildly disappointed at the time. But then two things happened:

The Braves acquired Bourn for a package with none of their top prospects and Domingo Santana was named as the PTBNL.

The Bourn thing made me dislike the deal a lot, and Santana part sent me over the edge.

My opinion has never wavered either...from a week before the trade:

Does anyone really believe this team needs to trade for a Hunter Pence-type hitter to win in the playoffs?
It's not whether or not you think Brown will ever be as good as Pence (impossible to know). It's why you think they should bother taking that risk in the first place. They are absolutely rolling. Why would you do something like this if it means trading a guy you have refused to trade for years?
This team is riding or dying on what the starters do in the playoffs. A bullpen arm would help solidify their pitching advantage over the rest of the league. The offense is good enough and it doesn't need Hunter Pence.
Posted by: Iceman | Saturday, July 23, 2011 at 06:09 AM

And honestly, that was before I saw him play. If I'd had known how flawed a player he was, I'd have had a stroke when the trade went through.

There are plenty of people, myself included, who wanted nothing of Hunter Pence.

Favorite part about the Bourn deal:

Jordan Schafer was 1 of the 4 prospects traded to Houston.

Houston cut him at the end of the 2012, and the Braves selected him back.

Schafer in 2013 back with ATL: .312/.399/.464 in 146 PA - hah what a freaking joke.

I loved getting Pence on the Phillies - I just hated what they gave up to get him.

I supported the Pence trade i admit. Now i was a little upset when i found out what we gave up. Just a little though. However that was overshadowed when Pence was playing "real good". I sorta forgot about what we gave up. I knew back then the win now would cost us in the near future. Well the near future is apparently now....

Reminds me, from the FO perspective, of Delmon Young. It seems like Amaro has some odd Moneyball/hot-streak fascination where fundamentally flawed players hit hot streaks and he thinks that's our ticket.

NEPP - You are the man! Great seeing that "horror" picture from the past.

That's right, Iceman, I am dangerous.

Don't feed the trolls.

i remember we used to joke about who had the most 'last posts' in threads. From checking a few older threads recently, it seems we'll never know even if we tried - since almost every single thread's last post is always some spam post about working google or something of the sort.

by the way - i messaged Weitzel on linkedin to see if he can have someone clean up the mess, hopefully he can pass the message along to get some of these dbags banned.

Cheers, NEPP. good on ya.

Raul Ibanez just hit his 23rd HR, and it was a bomb. It landed into the restaurant on the 2nd deck of Safeco field in right center. G'damn old man.

five or six more seasons like this and Raul should be entering the Hall of Fame as he starts to collect social security.

SSS and all but he's slugging around .600 against LHP.

how does ibanez have 23 bombs ... how is that possible?

Braves lost the Upton brothers tonight to injuries. Their stating outfield might be out the rest of the series against the Reds. Heyward and Upton are struggling so its hard to tell if that's a good thing.

Oh and Strasburg got crushed by the Marlins.

This Severino Gonzalez kid is starting to get out of hand. He just shutout the powerhouse Hickory Crawdad team over 6 innings and struck out 11. He has 3 scoreless starts out of the 4 total that he's made at Lakewood, including a no-hit 6 IP outing a a week ago.

Before getting moved down to be a starter in Lakewood, he was a reliever in Clearwater and pitched 27 innings with a .878 WHIP a 33/3 K/BB ratio. Unreal.

He's a welterweight 20yr old RHP with only a high 80s fastball, but stands at 6'1 so hopefully he may have room to build. From what I've read/been told, he has one of the best curveballs in the minors and can throw it anywhere he wants.

After 6 IP 0 ER 11 K vs Hickory, I hope he starts getting some buzz and video starts to surface of what this kid looks like.

Link on the right about "another" former Phils RP calling for Dubee's job, but it won't come up for me.

Time to send whoever failed to put up the Bruntlett graphic to Lehigh Valley Beerleaguer. Not ready!

The Bruntlett photo seems to have driven out the evil spirits.
No wonder he has two honorable mentions in the HoF.(Elmer Fudd hat & solo triple play)

Or maybe JW helped a little.

I know I'm not the first to say this, but I hope they don't play down to their opponent and fall flat on their faces after a great homestand so far. They do have that tendency. Got to take 2 of 3 at the least.

Thanks for the graphic NEPP.

I'll admit I was OK with the Pence deal. I thought it was a steep price but purhaps the cost of doing business... but that was until I saw the crap sandwhich Atlanta gave up for Bourn. Also didn't think a legit prospect like santana would be the ptbnl.

Two items that impact the Phillies:

1.) The White Sox traded Matt Thornton last night to the Red Sox so that is one less lefty in their pen for this weekend potentially.

2.) BJ Upton left last night's game with an adductor strain and Justin Upton left the same game with a left calf strain.

Have to admit it became shockingly clear what the level of player knowledge was on this board after the Pence trade - I had no idea who the fvck Hunter Pence was, and practically everyone else spoke of him as if they coached him since HS.

Come to think of it, in retrospect, ignorance was bliss... I live in fear of the big breakout of Domingo Santana. Regardless, he's currently rocking a .237/ .333/.459 line in AA. No blood, no foul.

I thought BJ Upton was out with a broken bat.

The catch with Santana is that he was young for his level and the PTBNL, usually a toss in. It was almost like tossing Gio Gonzalez into the Garcia trade.

That being said, you never know how a guy will do really until he gets to AA. So, yeah.

If the Braves look vulnerable does that change the equation?

I think it does. Despite their horrible starts, losing both Uptons is not good. Anyone think they were gonna stay this far below their career numbers all season?

Despite what others thought a few weeks ago when I was mentioning the Braves as being very mortal after a 12-1 start it, it wasn't throwing out the start. It was just saying that the first two weeks they were probably playing over their heads a little bit. The team of late is more representative of what we thought at the start of the year- a good but flawed team. The catch will be- did their 12-1 start afford them enough rope to withstand the teams coming from behind them.

even if the braves are a mere .500 team, then the Phillies still need to play +.600 W% baseball for the rest of the year.

Don't forget they just lost Heyward too so they have to find 3 new OFs...regardless of their offense the team defense just took a huge blow.

So win-win for us

Andy's right that Santana is young for his level, but we can't ignore park factors in the minors (see Gillies, Tyson).

Both Lancaster (esp. Lancaster) and Corpus Christi are hitter's parks.

That said, you may recall that Santana before the trade put up a .780 OPS in Lakewood, which is anything but a hitter's park.

The thing to watch with him is his K/BB ratio. He strikes out around 32% of the time and that's too high. Tha fact he doesn't walk much suggests he may end up a good SLG, low AVG, low OB kinda guy.

But his K rate did improve from 2010 to 2012 so there's time to make improvement at this level as well.

On defense he's got good range and a great arm, but made 10 errors last season, kinda high for RF. He's doing much better in that department this year.

I don't think Santana was a throw in, at all. If he can get his K rate down he's got the potential to be a good everyday RF in MLB. Both teams knew he was a good prospect and that's the price you have to pay to get a guy like Pence, who you may recall posted an .871 OPS that season.

what are time estimates for their injuries? i haven't seen any yet.

Lorecore: no timetables yet but even if they are only hit down for a few days it is still forcing the Braves to try and beat a very good team this weekend without their normal outfield.

Pence trade

I wanted Bourn who I thought was a better fit and would have been a better option in the leadoff spot for the Phils in the playoffs and last year in CF.

"Has Amaro's managerial style been influenced by the Mounties - "We always get our man!" Sure seems like it.

Maybe a little too much Rocky & Bullwinkle as a kid and admiration of Dudley Do-Right? Personally I was always more of a fan of Snidely Whiplash."

Posted by: MG | Saturday, July 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Amaro's fixation and at times obsession on addressing a particular need and acquiring a particular type of player/a specific player in order to fill that need hasn't served him very well as a GM.

I would almost always rather have a CEO who was tactically ground and lesser of a visionary than vice-versa.

Funny thing that always gets forgotten is that the Astros wanted another player in the deal before they finalized it and of course Wade requested Zeid (a reliever).

Some things never change. Still wonder exactly what his role is with the club and if he has any kind of organizational clout on decision-making or even the input that goes into a decision.

DH Phils: Both bets hit last, +275 Astros and +230 Rockies. Breaking my own rule and staying away from the +220 Astros today though - would be too good to be true. I'll have more fun blowing it on the craps table this wkend than on a lousy Astros team.

Cosart averaged 95.1 MPH last night, topping out at 97.5MPH.

3 games in less than 24 hrs. is not good for older players. Expect MaC at SS 1 game today. Franny at 2ND % 3RD. Q 1 game. At least RFD will be in for Dung 1 game. Nix stays glued to the bench with 3 LHSP.

Then again, Cholly's probably thinking "These guys are getting 4 days off, they can play 3 games in a day's time.

Great start by Cosart last night for the Stros, but let's not go overboard. There is an awful lot to suggest his future is in the bullpen.

For example, his BB/9 has climbed every level:
A: 2.0
A+: 3.6
AA: 3.7
AAA: 4.7

I generally have a soft spot for former Phillies prospects, but we also shouldn't go crazy over one start. I think Cosart could be a back of the rotation guy, but his increasing control issues are what will likely hold him back.

Wait a minute. Those numbers seem to indicate that there is another team with worse minor league instruction than the Phillies. That can't be right. Can it?

Classic. Just watching last night's highlights on MLB network. At a key point in the Twins/Yankees game last night, Justin Morneau got rung up on a check swing. The home plate ump said he checked and the catcher appealed to the third base ump who rung him up. It was a terrible call and Morneau went bat sh!t. He slammed down his helmet and bat. The umpire pointed up to the press box signifying an equipment fine. The third base umpire? Kerwin Danley. Who else? He is very consistent. He is ALWAYS wrong on a close play. Mind boggling incompetence.

Anyone here watch Phillies Nation TV?

Production quality is what you would expect, but I really enjoy the show. It is light years ahead of the pre- and post- game shows on CSN where the analysis is dumbed down by RickyBo and Ben Davis is a base level of fan stupidity. Gallen and Seidman cover topics we actually talk about here every day. The most recent episode had a segment on prospects that is more than I've ever heard on network tv about Tommy Joseph and Cody Asche.

Not exactly a lot of new information unearthed (only because we beat stuff to death on here ourselves) but Seidman usually throws out a few interesting stats, and the discussion about the Phils is basically the best you're going to get on TV. It's locked into my weekly Saturday DVR catch up rotation.

Another TV show that's good for a laugh: Nats Talk.

They take callers, and a guy just called in saying that he is just shocked that Denard Span isn't trying his hardest on the field since there's a buyout in his contract two years from now. And he must not be trying his hardest, because there's no way he's this bad of a player, right? The host agreed with the last part, and said it might just be one of those seasons where nothing is going right for him.

If that's the case, he must be the unluckiest player in the MLB. Two of the previous 3 seasons he's had a sub-.700 OPS, averaging 3 HR and 15SB a season over the last three years. He's missed some time due to concussion issues- and those simply do not simply heal up and go away.

I harp on this Span thing not just because I think Revere was the better pick up, but because a lot has been said about Amaro lucking into the first three years of his tenure and not having to do much but fill a few holes in the roster- Ibanez, Polanco, etc. The same could be said about Rizzo this year- it was a virtually unchallenged sentiment in both the SABR and 'old school' communities that the Nats were stacked and very few holes to fill. He had one clear position- CF- that needed a body. The CF market was rich this off-season, and he certainly had the money to fill that position with his pick of player.

He chose a player with concussion problems that is very good defensively and bad offensively, with limited base-stealing ability, that has been overrated based on one very, very good season. He's also showed noticeable decline since that season, having two flat-out bad offensive seasons followed by an OK season. He signed him to be a lead-off hitter and a 'spark plug' at the top of the lineup. He's arguably the worst regular offensively on the team.

Rizzo boned this decision badly, choosing to give up a top 100 prospect for him so he had the money available to sign Dan Haren and a big-money closer (when they already had one). I think it shows it isn't as easy as it seems to simply fill in the holes around a good core of players. He over thought the decision, and instead of sliding Harper to CF, he gave up a prospect to almost unarguably make the team worse.

The one thing that Rizzo couldn't foresee is Span's sudden inability to hit LHP. His OPS against them is under .400. Let that sink in for a minute. He'd be the worst player on the Phillies against lefties.

They simply have no choice but to bench him against LHP from now on, meaning that they traded a top 100 guy for a part time CF that can't hit for power or steal bases at an above-average clip.

Let me try to find that article Dave Cameron wrote this offseason entitled 'Nats Steal Denard Span'...

Cosart:

He has the stuff to succeed and be a nice mid-tier starter at the majors but the few pieces I have seen written on him say it comes down to how consistent his fastball command will be.

He would be a nice piece though to put in the rotation though and lets the Phils pass on signing KK to an decent-sized extension next year.

What the Phils decide to do with KK this offseason is an interesting subject.

What is the probable cost of ARB4 for him? $6M to $7M?

I enjoyed this Rotoworld blurb on elmn. Not sure why they're spending time giving updates on him, but its pretty good.

Delmon Young is 0-for-6 over his last two games.
Prior to Wednesday, Young had been Mexico hot, producing a .431/.473/.549 slash line over his previous 14 games. As a free-swinger with less patience than a child watching Lincoln, Young is prone to long spells of ineptness cut with short bursts of transcendence. Batting .268/.323/.419, we aren't proponents of Young's fantasy ability.
Jul 12 - 9:55 PM

Also, I'm still on the sell side of things, but I'm not overly impressed by the ChiSox's haul for Thornton+$. Don't really know much about Jacobs but he seems like one of many all tools little skill prospects. The Phils don't have a ton of guys like that with any value left thanks to Hewitt, Collier, etc never showing anything, but I could get behind trading for a reliever or 2 even, if that's the going rate.

Still waiting to hear what garbage relief pitcher that will be recalled as the 26th man. Also, the options with Kendrick include

1.Contract Extension
2.Back to Arbitration
3.Trade

Since we all raised an eyebrow over the last deal Kyle got I'm sure this will be a surprise to.

Anyone notice that Adam Morgan made a start for GCL Phils yesterday. Thought he was LOST FOR THE YEAR. Would appreciate anyone's insight on how he is making a recovery from a tear in his elbow ?

The Phillies have gotten remarkable production out of KK in his time with the Phillies and the cost has been minimal. One of the best values the Phils have had in the last 10 years.

Here's what was written about Morgan when he suffered his injury:

"The team announced that an MRI on the left-hander’s shoulder revealed a small tear in the rotator cuff. Morgan will not have surgery. Instead, he will remain shut down and have either a platelet rich plasma injection or a cortisone injection in the next week. The Phillies hope this course of action can fix Morgan’s problem."

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