Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Revere injury changes Phils' deadline plans | Main | Who's available at the back end of the bullpen? »

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Comments

Even if they go 2-7 or worse,don't look for Rube to pull the plug.

no but it sure would be nice if someone pulled the plug on Rube.

A couple thoughts on the Blanton/Lee discussion as both sides are misremembering.

1. Yes, we tried to trade him in early December during the Winter Meetings.

2. They tried to trade him again right when they were trading for Halladay...and that was to clear payroll and BEFORE Lee was dealt to Seattle.

However, he had already been tendered so they were automatically on the hook for at least a 1 year deal in the $8 million range. Rube only signed him to the extension in January to lower his 2010 payroll (why he only got $3 million that year and backloaded it the next two seasons).

However, on Dec 16, 2010, when they traded for Halladay, Rube knew he was already on the hook to pay Blanton and he was unable to trade him to Boston (who was heavily rumored to be where they were trying to send him) so he moved Lee to clear the payroll as he had already committed to Blanton the week before with that contract tender for 2010.

Now, had Rube had some sort of coherent plan other than "Damn, Clifton said no to my initial contract offer, I'm trading for Doc instead" during the Winter Meetings, maybe none of that happens and maybe they just non-tender Blanton and keep Lee/Halladay.

Also, Monty is full of sh!t with his comments in that book. It all came down to the $$.

I would imagine that if the Phillies are around 5 back at the Deadline, they'll be buyers...if they're 8-9 back, they'll be sellers.

I mean for any playoff spot, not just the NL East. I think we're 5 or 5.5 games back in the WC right now without looking at the standings and 6.5 in the Division?

Sound right?

Wait, so the good news is that the Dodgers have to face the Nats and that the Nats have to face the Dodgers?

NEPP: I don't think that everything any FO says to the media is 100% accurate. In fact, there are definitely times I don't believe Amaro when he says things very publicly.

However, when faced with the option of believing a number of sources cited in a researched historical volume or my own (or anybody else unaffiliated with any of the parties) theory on the subject... I'm probably going to go with the guys who did the legwork.

Taking 2/3 from the Mets would be huge since we're facing their top two pitchers. Lee Harvey on Sunday should be pretty special.

The Braves on the other hand look like they'll miss Harvey despite having a 4 game series.

***Taking 2/3 from the Mets would be huge since we're facing their top two pitchers. Lee Harvey on Sunday should be pretty special. ***

It definitely should be...which is why it'll end up being one of those wacky 12-10 games.

However, when faced with the option of believing a number of sources cited in a researched historical volume or my own (or anybody else unaffiliated with any of the parties) theory on the subject... I'm probably going to go with the guys who did the legwork.


Posted by: Phillibuster | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:02 AM

If the "We need to trade Lee for prospects" part was true, why were they shopping Blanton at the same time to Boston, etc? Rube wouldn't have been trading both pitchers and we know Blanton wouldn't have restocked the system anywhere close to what Lee, in theory, would have given Blanton's track record and salary (the tender offer, etc).

The Lee-Halladay trade in December of 2009 will always be a point of controversy. It's basically BL's version of whether there was a second shooter in the JFK assassination.

The Revere injury is distracting us from the main task of bolstering the bullpen.

I still think Ruf should play LF, and Dom should play RF. Mayberry can man CF until Revere returns. I realize he is a 4th OF but that's what 4th outfielders are for. They spot-start, and fill-in for injured starters.

1B is a lot easier to fill. The Phillies can call up a guy like Fields, or slide MYoung over to 1B and play Asche/Frandsen at 3B. Or play Hernandez at 2B and slide Utley to 1B. Filling a hole at 1B is a lot easier than filling an outfield spot. Ruf supposedly played LF well in AAA, and where does he go when Howard returns? LF - so why not put him there now?

Ruben Amaro needs to focus on building a shutdown bullpen. An average bullpen won't cut it. A shutdown bullpen will give this team a legitimate shot.

We lost our leadoff hitter/CF. Bolstering the bullpen might not matter if we cant fill that hole.

This argument is just like the offense apologists versus the bullpen apologists. Why does it have to be just for money or just for prospects? What if it was a combination of both?

From reading TTI's summary it does seem like both played factors:
- Dealing 7 prospects (4 for Lee, 3 for Doc) depleted the system according to the FO.
- Blanton was arb eligible but made close to $6 million in 2009. He either was going to get a raise in arbitration or sign an extension.
- Lee was due $9 million.
- Lee was more attractive to other teams in a trade and could get you more prospects back (quality of the prospects notwithstanding).

To me it seems like both money and a depleted farm system played a role. It wasn't only money or only prospects.

It just confounds me that the organization could turn around less than 2 years later and sign Lee and trade for Pence. But as awh pointed out yesterday, the word "incompetence" comes to mind. It's just a drastic change in the team's stance over a short period of time.

How many pitches does a starter throw on his "side day" between starts? If it is more than they throw in 1 inning in the ASG, why wouldn't they lead off Friday with their best starter? Give them the most opportunities to start.

Conway: Because they also have a warm-up session in the BP, and again when they come in. Plus, they probably do a regular side session with the AS catchers so they can see what kind of pitches they throw.

Anyway, who wouldn't want to see Lee-Harvey on Sunday? Too bad Oswalt is on the DL and isn't starting on Sunday too.

How many pitches does a starter throw on his "side day" between starts? If it is more than they throw in 1 inning in the ASG, why wouldn't they lead off Friday with their best starter? Give them the most opportunities to start.

Posted by: Conway Twitty | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:25 AM

I believe around 40-50 at 100% effort....

NEPP - I like Revere a lot, but losing him is not that big a deal. The thing I'll miss most, is his speed at the top of the lineup. MYoung has done a good job leading off, and they also have Rollins who has been the leadoff hitter for 12 years. Whether the Phillies play Mayberry in CF or trade for an OF, they'll still average 3-5 runs per game. IMO a shutdown bullpen is far more important for this team.

RedBurb - I thought the same thing, lol.

How about if Monday's matchup was Roy Oswalt vs. Ian Kennedy:

Lee-Harvey
Oswalt-Kennedy

Jake - Nice. Although I think we filled our JFK assassination references quota for the year.

****I like Revere a lot, but losing him is not that big a deal.***

Yes, losing a guy who has been batting .350 at the top of the lineup for the past 3 months is definitely "not that big a deal"...

Replacing him with Rollins who is batting a 100 points lower with zero power too is no downgrade at all...or Young who has zero speed.

"Lee Harvey on Sunday should be pretty special."

"It's basically BL's version of whether there was a second shooter in the JFK assassination."

See the association? I love it.

A Lee-Harvey-Oswalt rotation would really let a team aim for a playoff spot.

NEPP - Yes, you're losing a no power guy who was on a nice hitting streak. But a lot of those games, he wasn't even leading off. He was inexplicably hitting seventh.

A hitting streak that has coincided with us doing better overall...so saying its not a loss is just silly.

NEPP - I refuse to turn this into a debate on whether Revere is good or bad. I said he is good, and that I like him a lot. However, his loss doesn't threaten the season the way a bad bullpen does. That was my point.

It will if we cant find a legit replacement. Brown/Mayberry/D.Young really hurts us defensively. Revere wasn't a GGer out there in CF but his range at least made up for some of D. Young's deficiencies.

A bad bullpen is just as critical but we can't go forward with Mayberry in CF everyday for the next 2 months.

Both threaten what's left of the season.

Phillies' record in April, when Ben Revere hit .200: 12-15, .444.

Phillies' record since May, when Ben Revere has hit .329: 36-33, .521.

I agree with DH Phils' point from yesterday that Revere wasn't likely to hit .328 going forward. But there's no doubt that his hitting has contributed significantly to the Phillies being slightly better than mediocre since May 1. I doubt Mayberry is going to improve on that -- although he is usually good for about one month-long hot streak per year. Maybe the Phillies will get lucky and his hot streak for 2013 will just happen to occur at the time it's most needed.

That'd be awesome if it happens, bap. Its almost a necesssity given that the other options for CF are non-existent...especially the listed trade options from yesterday's thread.

Another hope is that maybe Chooch warms up and Ruf really gets on a hot streak and that carries the team regardless of Revere being out, etc etc.

Jake is correct that all of that is moot if we don't fix the bullpen.

We could just have Chase play about 25 feet behind the basepath. Half the time when Delmon goes back on a fly ball he ends up around that far away when it comes down.

NEPP - In my first post I suggested an outfield of Ruf (LF) Brown (RF) and Mayberry to fill-in until Revere gets back. DYoung has to go.

I'm actually a little surprised that nobody has suggested Chase try playing centerfield. He's fast. He tracks fly balls as well as any second baseman. And he has a noodle arm, so we most be spoiled before Ben returns. And it might be easier on Chase's knees, not having to make the pivot at second.

BAP - Do you have the stats on runs scored when Revere starts vs. sits?

That would be a better indication of his overall value to the offense. The win-loss record is affected by many more factors than one person in the lineup.

***Ruf (LF) Brown (RF) and Mayberry to fill-in until Revere gets back. DYoung has to go.***

Defensively, that's still pretty bad.

I think we'd see just how slow Utley is if we put him in CF. He's a very smart baserunner, not a particularly fast one.

Is it Friday yet?

Posted by: R.Billingsly | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 07:50 AM

Jake:

3.70 runs per game in April
3.93 runs per game since then.

Revere is clearly not the only reason for that. But he's a big part of the reason.

NEPP - Yes, Ruf-Mayberry-Brown is not a good defensive outfield, but its still better than any outfield that includes DYoung in RF.

The House Assassinations Committee did determine there was a 2nd shooter in '79 in their formal findings and it has been backed up a few times by various independent investigations.

As for history, it is isn't document-based it is open to all kinds of bias and general BS including first-person interviews & accounts.

BAP - I actually wanted to see the splits for RPG when Revere is starting vs. when he is sitting. You can even give me the splits from May 1st until now.

NEPP - Yes, Ruf-Mayberry-Brown is not a good defensive outfield, but its still better than any outfield that includes DYoung in RF.

Posted by: Jake | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 11:27 AM

No argument here.

Jake: That, I don't know how to find.

It's disappointing the Phils catch Harvey while the Braves miss just him, but we've had our fair share if luck missing the staff ace's turn lately.

At any rate, looking at the teams upcoming schedules that were chasing is pretty pointless this early in the season. I know it's in regards to the buy/sell stance, but if the FO wants to buy, they'll be buyers regardless. As long as they keep winning games/series, those teams will face each other all the time to guarantee losses and provide opportunities to make up ground on someone. And the head to head match ups with the Braves and Nats are still the most vital.

I come on here and see that I don't even make any arguments regarding Revere...they've already been made?

On the subject of Ben Revere, the defense rests its case.

I agree with DH Phils' point from yesterday that Revere wasn't likely to hit .328 going forward. But there's no doubt that his hitting has contributed significantly to the Phillies being slightly better than mediocre since May 1. I doubt Mayberry is going to improve on that -- although he is usually good for about one month-long hot streak per year. Maybe the Phillies will get lucky and his hot streak for 2013 will just happen to occur at the time it's most needed.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 11:09 AM

~~

THIS.

~~

That'd be awesome if it happens, bap. Its almost a necesssity given that the other options for CF are non-existent...especially the listed trade options from yesterday's thread.

Another hope is that maybe Chooch warms up and Ruf really gets on a hot streak and that carries the team regardless of Revere being out, etc etc.

Jake is correct that all of that is moot if we don't fix the bullpen.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 11:11 AM

~~

And THIS. I think all three are capable of getting hot. Hopefully Rollins is capable of a power streak as well.

There is a House Assassinations Committee? I totally want that job. Lots of vacation time.

Iceman - You're good at stat-mining. Is there any way to find out the average RPG when a certain player is starting vs. when he is sitting?

I think it would be time consuming.

Cyclic - Yeah, I can go back and do the math on 96 games, but I'd rather just look it up (if it exists).

Current Vegas odds for phils. 12 to 1 to win division. 28 to 1 to win NL, 50 to 1 to win WS. But 6 to 1 to make playoffs. Vegas rarely wrong. Still optimistic?

So you're tellin' me there's a chance...

I read ya...

Docjoe - I don't put much stock in what oddsmakers think about the Phillies. We watch them everyday, which may give us a biased outlook, but it also gives a lot more insight than a Vegas oddsmaker.

Jake: How do you propose Amaro go from the worst bullpen in the league to a "shutdown" bullpen over the next three weeks?

Since the beginning of July, Bastardo has pitched 6.2 innings, giving up only 3 hits and 1 run, walking 4 and striking out 8.

Maybe he's turning a corner? Would be very nice if 2011 Bastardo showed up for the rest of the season. Well, it would be more than nice--it's basically essential at this point.

Jack-- You answered your own question.

Time machine. Acquire 2008 Lidge, 2011 Bastardo. Done.

Jack - Get a shutdown RH setup man for the 8th inning and backup closer role. The young live arms can pitch the 7th inning.

One RH addition won't make it shutdown pen, but it would significantly improve it. Two shutdown arms will make it a shutdown bullpen.

Bastardo is a streaky pitcher.

Keep in mind, the reason the Phillies have the worst bullpen ERA is due in large part to players that are no longer in the bullpen.

How are we going to get this shutdown reliever if everyone agrees that we shouldn't be trading guys like Franco & Biddle? We should definitely seek bullpen help. But that help will almost certainly have to come in the form of a hit-or-miss veteran reliever, similar to the hit-or-miss veteran relievers we have acquired in the past and on whom we consistently seem to miss.

Need a HIT.

BAP: I get the sense that Jake is totally cool with trading top prospects for relievers, even when 6.5 games out of first place.

Watching the ASG last night reminded me Chris Davis & Tommy Hunter were traded for a reliever at the deadline. Relievers are the most over-priced commodity at the deadline. If the Phillies want a premium arm out of the bullpen, it's going to come with significant cost.

BAP - Matt Lindstrom would be one of those guys, and he wouldn't cost us Franco or Biddle.

"BAP - I actually wanted to see the splits for RPG when Revere is starting vs. when he is sitting. You can even give me the splits from May 1st until now.

Posted by: Jake | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 11:30 AM "

"Jake: That, I don't know how to find.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 11:32 AM "

Simple, go to Revere's game logs on b-r.com, and separate the games started from the rest, add up the runs in each game, and divide by the number of games he's started.

Answer:

Revere has started 56 games since May 1st. Runs scored in those games: 215... 3.84 RPG.

***Get a shutdown RH setup man for the 8th inning and backup closer role. ***

Relievers are pretty much the most expensive thing you can get near the deadline because every team needs them and the prices skyrocket as a result.

awh - Thanks. BAP posted earlier that the Phillies average RPG is 3.93 since May 1st, and you're telling me that the RPG is 3.84 with Revere starting, so that would indicate the team actually scored more RPG with Revere out of the lineup.

Again, I'm not bashing Revere, I like him and I wish he didn't get injured. But clearly his loss shouldn't affect the offense too badly (or at all).

Reliever A: 37.2 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9.

Reliever B: 34.1 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9.

Any guesses?

Jack, reliever #2 is Bastardo.

Releiver #1 is Matt Lidstrom.

And Reliever A is Matt Lindstrom.

From June 1st to when he got hurt, the Phils scored 151 runs in Revere's 34 starts- 4.4 RPG.

Yep.

Those two for an 8th inning R/L tandem would be a huge improvement. Bastardo can't be the only guy. He is too inconsistent.

awh: Well, thanks for the info -- although we'll have to agree to disagree about whether your calculation process qualifies as "simple." I had actually thought about doing the exact same calculation, but I came to the conclusion that it would be a 15-minute pain in the ass.

Iceman - Do you have the RPG when Revere wasn't starting, during that period?

June-present is a SSS, but any way you slice it, as good as Revere has been for us, his absence shouldn't translate into a big dropoff in RPG.

Jake, Revere finished some of the games he didn't start, so in reality, you would have to do it a little differently:

You'd have to add up the runs scored - by inning - during the innings Revere was in the lineup.

You would then have to add up the runs scored in the innings he was absent.

However, a cursory look at Revere's gamelogs reveals that in the 9 games he did not start, he got no hits in all of 4 PA. In short, he had no effect offensively in games he did not start.

bap, if you use excel it takes all of 5 minutes to do.

Lazy-a88 legal professional...

I would support getting Matt Lindstrom because he has been good in the past &, when your bullpen includes Joe Savery, J.C. Ramirez & Jake Diekman, any reliever who has been good in the past, and is still under 35 years old, is almost certain to be an improvement. But Lindstrom's very much in the mold of Chad Qualls and Chad Durbin -- a 30-something reliever with alarmingly declining strikeout totals and alarmingly rising walk totals. He could improve in the 2nd half or he could start pitching to his peripherals. It's anyone's guess. In other words, he's your basic veteran reliever.

BAP - Doesn't Lindstrom throw a lot harder than the hanging Chads'?

I saw his fastball reach 95 a few times over the weekend.

Jake, the Phillies scored a total of 179 runs in 41 games since June 1st: 4.3659 RPG.

Iceman's numbers indicate the Phillies scored 4.4412 RPG with Revere starting.

Over th course of a season that's about a 12 run differential - 1 win.

Also, that indicates they scored LESS that 4.3569 RPG without Revere, so, he may have been the difference in about 1 win since June 1st.

awh - Yes, but that was during Revere's unsustainable hot streak. That's why June-present is too small a sample size.

Jake- I'm not sure what you're trying to prove here, or even if it can be proven. If you think 40+ games is a small sample size, the five games he didn't play is an even smaller sample size. Microscopic, even.

If the team's numbers in games he started since June 1st isn't enough, ok. Here are Revere's numbers from May 1st vs Mayberry's:

Revere: .347/.380/.784
Mayberry: .252/.293/.713

It is a drop in every phase of the game from what they've been getting the last 2.5 months. It isn't even really disputable.

Ruf, Mayberry, and Kratz (earning starts from Ruiz) will have an unsustainable mash streak, clubbing 40 HRs combined between now and Sept 1, just in time for the returns of Howard, Revere, and 2010-11 Roy Halladay.

Mayberry is also far worse than Revere defensively in CF. He's just not a full-time CF. He's a guy that can spot start there and not kill you. He showed that conclusively last year after the Vic trade.

NEPP - Completely disagree on that one. Mayberry judges balls as good or better than Revere, and his arm makes up for his lesser range.

Then you weren't watching last year as Mayberry's range is just not there in CF.

Losing Revere is a big deal. There's no other way to look at it.

Offense suffers losing a high-average player with great speed in a lineup that lacks high-average and great speed.

Defense suffers because there is not a guy on the roster close to his defense in CF.

Organization suffers because instead of looking to just fill a RP hole, now we're looking for a CF.

I'm not sure how this is much of an argument.

If I could trade MYoung for a RHP version of Bastardo, I make that deal. Particularly if he's cheap and/or controllable.

Iceman - My point is simple. Losing Revere won't translate into a big dropoff in team offense, as has been proven by various RPG comparisons between games Revere started and sat. Thus, the bullpen is much more important to focus on at the deadline. That is my point.

Are we talking about getting Lindstrom and giving up Bastardo? Otherwise, what is the point of this comparison, other than Jack's endless propaganda campaign of fluffing a mediocre pitcher?

RHB have a .498 OPS against Lindstrom. JC Ramirez and Luis Garcia are currently on the roster. Case closed. He would be a huge upgrade over what they have in the bullpen.

This is starting to feel like a Monty Python skit. Happens every year at the break.

NEPP - I said Mayberry has less range, that's obvious. But his arm should save as many runs as his lack of range will give up. Revere's arm was a liability, the same way Mayberry's range is a liability. It's a wash in my opinion.

Jake: Numbers don't support your eyes.

Mayberry Jr. UZR/150 in 866 career innings in CF is -15.5.

Revere UZR/150 in 1831.1 career innings is 3.0.

That gap is not insignificant and it incorporates a player's arm. And as bad as Revere's arm is, that shows you how much better range he has.

Jake- RPG is a stat that takes into account the production of 9 guys. We're talking about 1 guy in a 9 guy lineup. So in that respect, no, it really wouldn't hurt them to lose any one guy, because it has no effect over the other 8/9 of the lineup.

But the slash line since May 1 is a cut and dry comparison. Mayberry has been much worse than Revere offensively. He's much worse on the basepaths and he's worse-to-much-worse defensively. Other than that, he should fit right in and the team won't miss a beat from what they've had the last 60 games.

You'd think that but the numbers and metrics dont support it as Revere's range is simply far greater than Mayberry's.

KAS - It's not a big a deal offensively, as evidenced by the RPG average for games started by Revere, compared to games he sat (even with Revere on fire).

Defensively I agree its a dropoff, but not much.

Organizationally, I don't think it makes much of a difference because either way the Phillies should have been looking for a replacement for DYoung. If they weren't planning on replacing DYoung we have bigger problem than Mayberry starting in CF. Ruf-Mayberry-Brown is adequate until Revere returns IMO.

KAS, Revere will be out for 6-8 weeks (so I'll use 7 in the calculation).

Mayberry will, unless someone else is acquired or promoted, get the bulk of the playing time in CF.

So, assuming 6 games/week, that's 378 innings of Mayberry in CF.

How many more runs does the other team scored in those 378 innings based on the UZR differential?

Ruf Mayberry Brown...to channel my inner MG, that would be the worst defensive OF in the last 15-20 years in the MLB.

Jake: You're trying to create a stat to fit a theory. It's square peg/round hole. There are a million factors that go into R/G. Doesn't it make more sense to look at the individual offensive production of the player who's out vs. the player replacing him?

And despite what you believe the Phillies *should* have been doing, they were not looking to replace DYoung. Losing Revere forces this team to find a way to replace him. That hurts our organization.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG