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Saturday, July 13, 2013

Comments

I'd think a split today would be fine with the pitching matchup Sunday. A sweep today is unacceptable if they want to go into the break with any kind of momentum.

This lineup, without Utley and Howard, is actually quite formidable against LHP. They should succeed this series. The only weakness (and it's a glarin one) is Rollins in the top-half of the order.

Btw, the Phils are now at 361 RS on the year (3.88 RPG)- 10th in the NL. They are within 11 runs or fewer of NYM, SFG, SDP and CHC. I think there's at least a 50/50 chance they pass two (if not 3) of them in the next month or so, which would put them squarely in the middle of the pack offensively.

Other area that has surprised me too is how decent the Phils bench/PH have been so far this year:

PH have a .278/.317/.436 split with 4 HRs and 22 RBIs in 133 ABs.

Basically right in the top 3 in every PH category.

Nix is 10-42 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs but has struggled very badly in that role since April when he had 6 PHs.

Frandsen is 11-31 with 1 HR and 9 RBIs and has had a great 1st half off the bench for the Phils.

Galvis 1-12
Mayberry 1-8
M. Young 2-5
Howard 1-5
JRoll 3-4
D Young 2-3

Repost:
There is no point trading anyone as long as RAJ does the trading.

Howard 2006-2009 HR 198 RBI 572
Howard 2010-2013 HR 89 RBI 323
Enough said although you can go ahead and do WAR and whatever other statistic you want.
And by the way you can do the same with every other one of our heroes. Pretty much the same.

Of course you could have done this math before the season started.

Yes, no credit for RK, he has pointed this out in the past, except that many here thought I was wrong.

But I have changed my mind I really do not want them to sell because I think the FO is clueless. Has been clueless for sometime proof are the 2 Lee trades.
PS. I have never said trade them all just the declining former stars: Utley and Rollins. Don't think the Phils have the know how to trade Howard.
I would definitely not trade Lee; the team needs to get rid of some guys but in the hands of the right management the team can return to the playoffs and win.

I really expect us to win both of these.

Given how Nix's PT has essentially dried up and Amaro's mixed comments on D. Young this year, it is going to be interesting to see if the Phils pick up a corner OF bat at the deadline.

I would like to see an upgrade over L. Nix/move D. Young for whatever they can get/move Brown to RF/go with a platoon of Mayberry and acquired LH bat in LF.

If Ruf continues to hit though and get on base while Howard is out, he make just force the issue though and force the Phils to keep him on the MLB roster.

90-95% certain Amaro is going to trade for a veteran RHP reliever. Less certain about an OF bat because of how will be available, the high price tag, and the Phils' limited MLB-ready prospects. Amaro won't trade for Schierholtz.

Trading one of the useless toolsy prospects at Reading (Gillies, Hewitt, Collier) for Thornton (straight salary dump by the White Sox to move $2M+ off their books) wouldn't have been a bad move and an upgrade over Diekman.

"A sweep today is unacceptable "


Even if the Phils win both? Or would your head explode?

Maybe Pettibone should take, like, a half step to his left.

Last year on another site I saw an analysis of Ruf: pitch to him outside and low and he goes for it every time and misses. Once pitchers figure it out he is doomed unless he can learn to correct--something Howard has not been able to do.

24 HR, 54 RBI
264/313/576/889
41 years old, 2.75 mil.

RAUUUUL!

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/id/31470/darin-ruf

RK - yeah I have seen him chase that slider down and away an awfu lot but if you look at his Hot Zone:

He's hit over .400 on balls down and low in the zone although the SSS doesn't mean much.

So much of that inning looked familiar...swinging on first pitches after walks, bad baserunning, squandering runners in scoring position...Are we playing the Phillies today?

I know I asked this a bunch but didn't these teams have the option to recall an extra man for a rain induced double header?

@RK: Pitchers seem to have been taking that tactic against Ruf. It's worked a couple of times but he seems to have a pretty good eye. I've seen him lay off a few close ones there and try and do something with a couple of others.

It's still probably a weakness but with a good eye maybe he can mitigate that and at least make them throw strikes low and away rather than Howarding the dirtballs.

Those 2 BBs in the first inning didn't surprise me by Pettibone.

7 BBs now in 16 IP in the 1st and it seems like Pettibone has struggled finding his command early in games but seems to settle down after he goes through the lineup.

Boom. Production.

3-4 years ago, Jimmy scores on that ball.

Say just thinkin'. Don't ya think any other manager than Charlie would move Jim-Me "No Hit" Rollins down in the order? I'm thinking 10th.

Chalkey Malone - Yeah JRoll should be lower in the order.

Got the early run.

scores a run, well done Dom.

Lol not even close.

Wheels: Good job by Dom there not to strike out. Bloody hell.

MG that is an interesting stat and maybe he has learned to avoid some--nothing would please me more--I don't believe age or being 27 is too late for success in BB look at Raul he didn't get going until he was 30!

Yak gunned down at 2nd by a mile but great to see the Phils get out to a 2-0 lead early.

Delmon is DOA, well dead even prior.

CS, I want to know too. Can't find anything in brief searching.

Yakish

The whitesox replaced Thorton on the roster but I saw no other moves. LVH was rained out yesterday to so there's no excuse unless I misunderstand the rule.

Leslie Gudel ‏@lesliegudel 8m
Could actually hear the crowd laugh as D. Young tried to stretch a 1B into a 2B and got thrown out by 10 ft.

The Phillies oftentimes play entire weeks of the season down 1-2 guys due to them being injured but not DLed...what makes you think they're gonna waste the money (probably $5K total) to bring a guy up for a day when they're at 25 full healthy players?

Beginning in the 2012 season, teams were allowed 26-man rosters for scheduled "day-night" doubleheaders—two games scheduled on the same day, but with the stadium cleared between games, and separate tickets sold for each game.[1]
-wiki

BALTIMORE -- The Collective Bargaining Agreement rule that allows clubs a 26-man roster for day-night doubleheaders only applies if the twin bill is scheduled at least 48 hours in advance.

So, it would not apply on Saturday, with the Dodgers and Orioles set to play two after Friday night's rainout.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said on Saturday he didn't know why the rule change was designed that way. He came up with a hypothetical situation where it would have been handy.

Re: Roster rules. As far as I understand it:

"In a rule established in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, clubs can have 26 players on the roster for day-night doubleheaders that occur at least two days after the original game is rained out. "

Or, to put it another way, "a club can temporarily add (recall or select) a 26th player to its MLB Active List on any day where two games are scheduled, as long as the second game was scheduled at least 48 hours in advance."

Yak: always an adventure in right.

DYoung doesn't float

Rios has looked extraordinarily terrible in his 2 at bats today.

The 48 hr. rule is probably because some teams could not get a player there on short notice.

"DYoung doesn't float"

Hilarious.

Pettibone is having fun tonight. Stuff looks great.

Rios has done nothing offensively for a while now. He's exactly the kind of player I don't want Amaro to trade for.

Revere is so hot he's fouling off pitches that are literally above his head.

The Ben Revere haters are maintaining their right to remain silent.

Love to see a 'Hit & Run' here.

I, for one, have always loved Ben Revere.

Would have had 1st and 3rd now instead. I hate the Cholly utterly refuses to deploy the 'Hit & Run/Run & Hit' yet he will sac bunt at some of the dumbest times.

LA: Looks like he just walked out the shower - referring to Danks

Crushed that one, Michael.

NEPP: Ha, ha,ha,ha. Well done.

"So much of that inning looked familiar...swinging on first pitches after walks, bad baserunning, squandering runners in scoring position...Are we playing the Phillies today?"

Posted by: Andy | Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 03:15 PM


They're going over the Philadelphia coaches for the Sox as we speak.

clout- funny how that works. Haven't heard from them in over a month.

People like MG simply ignore the topic now and will claim never to have ripped him daily, but a guy like curt has just stopped posting entirely because his sole motivation for posting was complaining about how Revere wasn't a MLB player.

Something tells me during the next week-long slump, he'll magically re-appear.

TV watching folks: just how wet is Danks right now, on a scale of Blanton to Rivera?

If Danks starts getting that curve over he's gonna be tough. So far he hasn't.

Nice play by Frandsen. I don't think Utley makes that play anymore.

Reuben Frank ‏@RoobCSN 9m
Revere has 15 multiple-hit games in his last 28 games.

Iceman - Stop trolling. Revere has hit really well the last 6 weeks.

If he finishes at ~.300 AVG/.700 OPS, steals 40+ SBs, and plays good defense, he will have had a good season (2-3 WAR) and that is about what you could have optimistically expected.

Let's see where he ends up.

Rios has a .806 OPS in July. .775 overall. 19 steals and 11 HR.

Definitely want no part of him. Have no idea where they'd even play him.

Pettibone has really settled in. Throwing strikes, getting ahead of hitters, and has a good changeup today through 4 IP.

We have always been fans of Ben Revere.

Pettibone can't possibly be this good, right?

We've been burned by Worley, Happ, etc. I just can't imagine we have actually developed a solid 4/5 starter.

Revere is batting .422 for the month of July.

MG- its trolling to point out what you were saying about Revere, and how the organization should go in another direction for CF?

Fair enough. Let me know the statute of limitations for pointing out what you've said in the past and I'll act accordingly.

Yeah I am hoping Amaro trades Biddle and another 2 top prospects for a sub .800 OPS corner OF has a career rep of fading in the 2nd half.

Feeling a Ruf HR here.

Ruben is genius. Slappy Revere & Give'm hell Del.

Iceman - Yeah I wouldn't mind at all if they pursued a CF prospect in a trade if they liked that prospect enough.

Revere is a guy who isn't as good defensively in CF as advertised and is a 2.5-3 WAR ceiling player.

Except we haven't been burned. It was the teams that we traded Happ and Worley to that ended up burned.

That's very true, Dave.

Revere was always going to be a guy who lived and died by where his ground balls were hit in the infield. right now, he's hitting them where they ain't. and has been for quite some time.

Revere in RF

If the Phils could acquire a guy who had decent power in CF, I wouldn't mind Revere being shifted over to RF next year.

Revere's arm limitations would be mitigated a bit, his overall career defensive numbers there are much stronger than in RF than CF, and the Phils could go with the anti-Delmon Young (high AVG, great range, great speed).

Amaro just seems transfixed with the idea that he needs a power hitter in RF.

Need a GDP here.

MG- no, you said you would stay away from Rios period. No one in their right mind would pay that much for him. The point is he would be a large upgrade over what they already have.

And I actually agree with you about moving Revere to right, although I still think you're full of it when it comes to his CF defense. I'm curious as to what prospect it is that you would target to take over for Revere right away in CF?

3-1 to the pitcher and he doesn't get a take sign. Awesome.

So Revere, a guy that MG complains about incessantly in center thinks would be good in right despite his pretty below average arm- another aspect MG has complained about?

Also, a hit & run there still probably wouldn't have gotten Revere to third cause the ball was hit to left. But hell, let us not have that pesky detail stop us from complaining.

No way Revere goes in RF. Just no. It doesn't happen nor should it.

And really it is obvious what to do..if you like a centerfield prospect to play now. Move Brown back to right and Revere to left.

At 76 pitches already?

Iceman - Your just being a fool now. You know that Rios is going to command a high/very high price tag at the trading deadline since he will be one of the better bats available.

Revere defense stats (400 IP min in CF this year which gives you 27 starting CFs)

UZR: -1.4 (18th out of 27, 35th percentile)
UZR/150: -2.4 (18th out of 27, 35th percentile)
RZR: .937 (t-11th out of 27; 60th percentile)
OOZ: 55 (4th out of 27; 85th percentile)
DRS: -2 (t-17th out of 27; 35th percentile)
Fielding Pct: .991 (t-13 with 3 others, 50th percentile)

You can keep posting about how Revere is having a good defensive season and I will keep posting the numbers which stay to the contrary.

Rag arm there. Ridiculous that Dunn can tag up on that play.

Revere isn't having a good defensive season. He's been better lately, but that improvement maybe puts him near average in CF.

And that arm is just brutal. The Sox weren't even bothering to run quickly on that play.

Revere in RF is like putting Ruiz or Utley are 3B

Revere's arm stinks but if you look at his career defensive numbers there they are very good in RF.

Kind of what the Red Sox have done with Vic this year and moved him to RF. He's excelled there defensively in a RF that is arguably one of the most difficult to play.

If we found a replacement for CF I'd welcome Revere to right.

Phils need to get a run here.

I would be in favor of switching Revere & Dom to try that out. It would be better to have Dom's arm in CF and Revere's in LF. Or maybe we were spoiled with Victorino.

Hey I was a Revere hater and I just mentioned me being wrong the other day. Geez, sorry for hating a guy who was absolutely useless for a month, both offensively and defensively.

Glad he's hitting better now though. Still sucks to see someone with so much speed not be above average defensively though.

@MG
Career numbers? He started 84 games in RF total. That is not a lot at all.

Its just common knowledge that you don't put a guy with no arm in RF. Its the one saving grave ( besides amaro admitting a mistake ) that is keeping Young in RF..his arm. He does have a cannon.

Vic > Revere defensively also.

Need to score some runs, boys!

I can understand why you would shift Brown to RF because of his arm. It's his best defensive attribute by far and I could see the logic of Revere in LF/Brown in RF too if the Phils acquired a CF this offseason.

Amaro loves power in the corner OF spots though.

ummm...... Sarge seemed to really struggle with that trivia question LOL

Danks was sucking eggs on the mound there (listed at 215 but I would put money he is closer to 230 right now) and the Phils just 3 weak balls in a couple of poor ABs.

I'd have liked to see more sitting on the changeup and trying to foul off the fastball. It doesn't look he's blowing it by anybody and when he changes speeds we're just grounding out all over the place.

Seems Worley and Pettibon have the same tank.

Phils' middle relievers need to give the Phils a chance to comeback here.

White Sox pen has been shaky, Reed's been hittable, and they are shorthanded without Thorton.

MG: So you are basing your opinion of Revere as being good in right on 90 games of baseball but you spent (and spend) time telling us he stinks in center field based on 313 games?

I mean- you see the lunacy of your positon on this right?

TTI - yeah it 90 games so it's really small but the argument has been about Revere all along is how good defensively he is in CF because he is a player who derives a lot of his value from his defense.

Revere hasn't been good so far this year in CF and his overall numbers there are average/slightly above average.

So tired of Iceman and you reframing the argument constantly to make your point.

Now De Fratus is nibbling. Sack up.

The sell meme will start if they lose this one. Then the buy meme will start if they win the 2nd game....lol

Walk Dunn here.

Nice slider from DeFratus

That is exactly where Diekman should have been warmed and faced Dunn though.

Why DeFratus? With the All Star break looming only use De Fratus when it is mop up time. It is always tough to sweep doubleheader.

Right on the Adam's Apple. That had to really hurt.

TTI- don't bother with MG at this point. You can directly quote him on something and he'll claim you're twisting his words or reframing the argument.

We both know what he's said in the past. If he cares that much about being right (like Jack), just let him think that.

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