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Friday, July 05, 2013


Good win. The Phillies have won their 3rd game of the year when their starting pitcher gives up 4 or more runs, removing from the a last place tie with the Whitesox and Mets.

Great note, Lorecore. That is pretty pathetic, but the vibes are positive on this night.

Watching his Howard's HR, I'm going to predict that it was his longest of the year. Current long is 427ft of Gee up at Citi Field.

Once they calculate tonight's blast, I wonder if it'll be his longest vs a LHP in more than a few years.

Lorecore: McCarthy had it at 421 feet during the broadcast.

Went out on my deck to watch the local fireworks with the Phils up 5-0.
Came back in and it 5-4 in the bottom of the 8th.
Saw all the good parts and missed all the bad parts. Maybe my luck is changing.
Better yet the Phils luck.

I don't know, nothing about this team excites me. The most exciting thing would actually be if they made a few bold moves to position them for next year, but wins like this will actually prevent those.

Suspend disbeief for a moment. What happens if the Phils' 'old-timey' veterans rally to "win out" on this homestand (10 - 0), and the Phils end up with a record of 51 - 45 at the ASB (July 14).

Does the team take a terrible hit because of the delusional GM thinks he's got to go "all in" and strip what's left of the farm? Or does every worthy Phillies fan go all in and pray that the team gets lucky and ecks out a second World Series?

I hate when a team is just not good enough to buy or sell. It compounds the lunacy of the subject GM.

ESPN Stats says 439ft. for Howie, longest since last sept.

From the last thread:

Quintero should be the player of the game just for that haircut.

Posted by: rockaintdeadyet | Friday, July 05, 2013 at 09:58 PM

Oh, man, I couldn't stop laughing at this. Well done.

Negative thought of the night.
If Lee was limited 6.1 innings / 83 pitches by this heat, can you imagine what the next 9 games of the homestand will do to our pitchers?

"What happens if the Phils' 'old-timey' veterans rally to "win out" on this homestand (10 - 0), and the Phils end up with a record of 51 - 45 at the ASB (July 14)."

You have a better chance of seeing Haley's Comet in the next week, then the Phils going 10-0 on this homestand.

Much, much more likely its like its been all year long...probably about 5-5. Win a couple and then lose a couple.

All teams have "hot streaks" of some ilk. But win 7 in a row against Atlanta and Washington? Which will mean beating Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann in 4 of those 7 games. Going to be real tough.

Now the White Sox next weekend are dreadful. One of the worst teams in baseball, in my mind. Lots of teams could sweep that club...including this Phils team.

"I hate when a team is just not good enough to buy or sell. It compounds the lunacy of the subject GM." - cut fastball

I remember when I was a kid and the Phillies were terrible every year, I wished for a .500 team. Now we hate it!

Good win tonight that felt like a loss late in the game.

Utley has really turned it around against LHP. Earlier in the year he was really struggling. He was actually pathetic against lefties, even worst than Howard. Now, hes up there with Dom in OPS against LHP.

DOM is the fn man.

Suppose they do have a great homestand, say 8-2, what happens then? Does Ruben go out and try to get some veteran bullpen help and another veteran bat to give them a shot at making the postseason or does he recognize that, based on the last year and a half, this team is mediocre at best and even if it does by some miracle make the postseason it will not go far?

Does anything on this 2013 team remind you of the 2008, 09, 10 or 11 teams? I don't see much at all. I don't see the power, the pitching, the defense or even the smart play. Sad to say, but sellers is what they need to be.

It wouldn't matter if they go 8-2, if the Braves also go 7-3 or even 6-4. In order to even discuss these "what if" scenarios, they have to start by sweeping the Braves.

Amaro on the possiblity of trading utley:

"“Again, I see him as a Phillie for life,” Amaro said. “But I’m not the most stubborn human being on the planet.”"

Your actions would seem to speak clearly otherwise...

I was pissed last night watching that. I thought my boys were going to rally and win. I was tomahawk chopping my penis in excitement during that 9th inning.

Good point by Dragon. This team does not remind me of the 08-11 teams. They were dominant then, winning the vast majority of their series. Now it's all they can do to win a series. All the planets have to align or whatever metaphor you want to use for this team to have success.

Is the average BL'er really so cynical that s/he dreads the prospect of the team going 10-0 in July? I know it won't happen (though it is actually like infinity times more likely than a Halley's Comet sighting this summer)but, the revulsion expressed at the very possibility is downright curious. The damn farm system is pretty shitty. Crying over the loss of any but a few of these now sacred "prospects" the Phils have reminds me of that Monty Python song about using condoms.

Hugh, the average BL'er just does not think this is a good team, but it seems like maybe the organization thinks more highly of itself that the average BL'er thinks it should. Therefore, if they should go 10-0 in this homestand, it feeds the false impression the team has of itself in the mind of the average BL'er. The average BL'er is frustrated because they do not think the team is well managed and well coached, so even if they do very well in this homestand and even make a run at it after the all star break this year, they are more concerned with what happens to the team in the long run.

Amaro and Manuel have long ago lost the trust of BL as a group. We think we know what we have with these guys and we don't like it. Therefore, we don't trust Amaro to recognize what the team needs either in the short run or the long run and we don't trust Manuel to know what to do with the guys when he gets them. Therefore, no matter what the Phillies do, there will always be an undercurrent of dissatisfaction on BL as long as either or both of them are in their current position. This is not to say that their replacements would do better. There is no way of knowing they would. But, the average BL'er thinks these two guys are part of the problem (if not THE problem) and would be willing to give some slack to and take a wait and see attitude with their replacements. We just want to see a good organization that makes good player moves and that is also well coached. So, in the mind of the average BL'er, going 10-0 in this homestand doesn't solve the problems they have with the Phillies. Many of the contributors here have been warning for years of what we see happening now with the team, so don't be so hard on BL as a group. It's amazing how often the collective wisdom here turns out to be spot on.

Hugh: It is a very masochistic view that many on here take when it comes to the Phillies this season.

I want them to win but I do realize that winning a good amount through this stretch could convince Amaro to buy and sell off what limited farm system assets we have.

On the farm system itself: I think with the rise of guys like Biddle, Franco, Dugan, and their 2013 draft you will see the farm system in a much better ranked position than it was coming into the 2013 season. Even with the steps backward for guys like Joseph and Martin.

I may think the team should sell off some parts but I'm never going to root for loses.

limoguy, I'm inclined to agree with the feelings you ascribe to the average BL. I'm just not inclined to agree that losing is better than winning. I don't understand the mentality of surrender before the battle is lost. I'm no fan of current management and there is the possibility someone who has significant long term value will be moved for a short term upgrade. That will be a mistake if it happens. I doubt it will happen even in the unlikely event of a torrid homestand / July. My sense is that, if they're winning, they'll largely stand pat or make marginal moves. If the team is on a roll, I won't cry if they forego the deadline fishing expedition with short-timers like Utley, Ruiz and Young.

With all that said, I fully expect them to still be 4-5 games under at the all star break.

5-2 vs braves,nats,1-2 vs Sox. It's the Philly way.

Hugh -- Great "Monty Python" reference. Cracked me up.

Good posts. I'm one of those guys who has come to understand - rationally - the need for current sacrifice of key parts to reload (albeit with some reservations).

Emotionally, however, I just cannot bring myself to the point where the idea of Chase Utley or Cliff Lee being traded for purported prospects does not make me sick at heart. I'm just as far away from the idea of being sort of glad in kind of a backward way when Delmon Young fails. I'm not a particular fan of the guy, but sorry, he's a Phil and while he is I want him to play well and help the team win.

Bob, you're in the minority. Most of the posts on Beerleager that I've read have a distinct tone of disappointment that Delmon Young is justifying his contract.

It's as if it's not good enough for the Phillies to get a win if it comes at the expense of their opinions and arguments.

I guess that's what passes as an "educated fan" online these days, but I think that most of the rest of us aren't buying it. It's ego-driven nonsense.

Will, I suspect there are probably quite a few lurkers who like us, still love to see a win however obtained, and are glad for Delmon Young or anyone on the team when they play well.

I generally cringe at the sight of Delmon Young but, never at the sight of him hitting the occasional rope to the outfield.

Im also torn on this team. I want them to win but ultimately i feel the team isnt good enough. The bullpen issues their in ability to hit when it matters is frustrating. I still keep seen the same pattern. Sure they won yesterday but they cant seem to sustain any streaks. It's always win 1 or 2 then drop 2 rinse and repeat.

Bob, well said and with you. Happy for any kind of success (TM Sarge) and happy for any player who brings it.

I live in north central Jersey, just out of Philly cable range, so I watch games on my iPad. So with the 7:00 game and Muts/Brewers inexplicably on Fox, am I getting blacked out? Going to be pssed if I can't watch the game tonight.

I truly believe that the haters belong to a crowd that is more interested in and entertained by trades, free agency, drafts, and fantasy. The games on the field are a mere distraction to them. I don't know how one becomes like that but it's dumb.

Will S: "Most of the posts on Beerleager that I've read have a distinct tone of disappointment that Delmon Young is justifying his contract."

2013 Delmon Young: -0.5 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR

Oh yea, totally worth it.

It seems that Delmon Young can hit a baseball when you least expect it. He looks like crap at the plate. His stance is ugly. He looks like he's trying to take a dump up there. But if you analyze his actual swing, it's quite simple and repeatable. And with two strikes, he actually seems to adjust a bit, unlike most Phillies.

I cannot stand Delmon Young. His fielding is dreadful and his baserunning is only called baserunning because basestumbling is not a word. As one visiting analyst put it, he runs like he is angry at the ground.

But he does seem to be pitching in with hits when needed lately. And that's more than I ever thought he would do. Still a net negative. But not as horrible as we all thought. Maybe our expectations were so low that he doesn't have to do much to surprise us.

Will Schweitzer, I am so glad you're back. Now please nuzzle my nutsack while the Truth Injection grades my paper on Giovanni's Room, in the nude.

Classy as ever, clout. I missed your trolling and trap setting. Have to give you credit where credit is due on Kendrick though.

I am giving my ears the night off for defensive reasons against offensive blabber.

1)Franzke and LA are both off. UGH!

2)JJ and Sarge are on radio. (A new low in broadcasting.) DOUBLE UGH!!

3)FOX will be over-hyping the ASG for 3+ hrs. TRIPLE UGH!!!

4)Tmac might be working with FOX. UGH TO INFINITY!!!!!

Excuse Conway, it's Xfinity.

P.S. Who will get more negative comments tonite, the Phils, or the broadcasters?

Thom Brennanan & Tom Verducci, says the internet.

Will: That's fake clout. Real clout is the one who calls everyone idiots, not the one who asks them to nuzzle his nutsack.

As baseball announcers go, JJ is a good hockey announcer....there might not be a less desirable combo than JJ and Sarge, and that includes any iteration with Wheels. This would be great time for WIP to do one of those announcer-less experiments....on the radio!

I am the real deal; hate Bullpen losses on your own time. I like putting my words (and other things) in your mouth. Please yank my fungo.

Will S: "Most of the posts on Beerleager that I've read have a distinct tone of disappointment that Delmon Young is justifying his contract."

2013 Delmon Young: -0.5 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR

Oh yea, totally worth it.

Posted by: lorecore | Saturday, July 06, 2013 at 10:53 AM

That pretty much sums it up. Any mediocre addition he makes with the bat is more than wiped away by his atrocious defense. I'm not exaggerating when I say he has the worst range of any ML outfielder I have ever seen.

The point is he has no upside and offers nothing to the Phillies moving forward. At least Darin Ruf might provide enough offense to balance his terrible defense. We don't get to know because DYak is clogging up an outfield spot.

I want Elmn to hit so either we win games or can flip him for something/anything.

squads: I am the ultimate Ruf supporter but his current OPS at AAA is lower than Delmon Young's current OPS at the majors. So if Young's offense, to this point, hasn't been enough to offset his terrible defense, why would Ruf's be? His defense is probably just as bad as Young's.

Comment by Hugh: "I'm just not inclined to agree that losing is better than winning. I don't understand the mentality of surrender before the battle is lost."

I used to have a driver working for me who sometimes performed great and other times terribly. I got rid of him of course because he was inconsistent and because I happen to believe my customers deserve good service every single trip, not just sometimes. Do you think I should have kept him? If you think I should have, then your comment above is understandable. Otherwise not.

No, limoguy, you should hire a better employee. What does that anecdote have to do with baseball? Nothing.

Hows about cutting Nix keeping Young and calling up Ruf? Would that be any better?

I should probably have checked on Ruf before making that claim. He turns out to be a bad example.

It does look like Young is being misused with 3/4 of his PA's vs. RHB. He might have some value (or at least break even) in a pure platoon situation. I'm sure this point has been make 100 times before though.

Do limo guys have guaranteed contracts and a rock hard union?

"Real clout is the one who calls everyone idiots, not the one who asks them to nuzzle his nutsack.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Saturday, July 06, 2013 at 11:29 AM "

Did you ever think you might be spending too much time on BL?

PLM- but he's our LH bat off the bench. Where else are you gonna find someone who mashes RHP to the tune of 216/274/330?

I hate teams I root for for being stuck in the middle. There's nothing good about being around .500 - winning and losing both have their qualities, but doing both an equal amount of times just cancels all of those qualities out.

I watch every game wanting them to win. Just because I can find positives in a loss doesn't mean I'm glad they did.

Curt: Why are you so....curt?

Good discussion this morning (well, before fake clout showed up).

I mentioned yesterday I could never root against them even if I wanted to, but I could also admit that a long winning streak over the next few weeks would be detrimental to the future of the team, more than likely.

But for now I'm rooting for them to turn it around. Stranger things have happened. I've always felt the lineup was better than they were performing, and who knows with the bullpen- maybe Ramirez is one of those bizarre cases of a guy raising his game on the big stage. Like Hugh said, Haley's Comet, etc etc. But I'll root for one last run until it's basically mathematically impossible.

I agree with limoguy. This team needs fundamental changes to be truly successful long term, not the spit and bubble gum approach that the current management is taking.

After years of mediocrity, the Eagles had to totally suck before Reid was ousted. Don't let that awful scenario happen to the Phillies.

That is, the awful scenario of overpaying free agents, not grooming enough talent internally, and trying to trick fans into believing they "still have a chance" to sneak into the playoffs, where "anything can happen". Such a stupid ploy, fabricated to sell tickets.

I would love to see a 10-0 home stand or even an 8-2 home stand but let's be objective. This is a team that is flawed in several ways and even if they traded for the best available reliever and a corner OF bat would have a mediocre bullpen and offense at best.

Amaro has a really tough slog ahead and somehow has to rebuild on the fly without the bottom falling out for a few years like it did on the Mets. I don't think he or this organization is run competently enough to do that from the bottom up in several areas with the biggest deficiency being how they handle injuries and conditioning and reach secondary pitches to their pitchers.

"Did you ever think you might be spending too much time on BL?"

About a year ago, I had a dream that I was in a bar & the guy sitting next to me turned out to be NEPP. From that moment, I realized that I definitely spend too much time on Beerleaguer.

J.P. Crawford with 4 more hits today, but the GCL Phillies' bullpen gave up 5 runs in the 9th to lose. I guess, when it comes to relief pitchers, the Phillies' philosophy is: you're never too young to get started on sucking.

Cholly's lame duck status comes up all the time but Amaro is a lame duck too if the Phils don't make the playoffs this year.

Nothing more paralyzing and there is a very good chance that this organization does run off the rails again and has some pretty lean years the next 2 years given their current contracts and MLB talent, their farm system and prospects, and the changing dynamics of FA.

I bet Rube will be giving another chance. However he is living and possibly dying by whats left of the core group. With no foreseeable plans for the immediate future. Frankly i bet Rube has little clue what he is going to do past this season. In all fairness (maybe im thinking a little bit like Rube here) i did think the core should of been giving one more last shot. With the right complimentary pieces and barring injury (yea right) I thought they had one more gasp of air left in them. However passed this season me thinks not. This is where it gets scary because i bet Rube has no fracking clue.

Is it me or is Sandberg as incompetent or nearly as incompetent as Samuel was last year as the 3rd base coach or as Steve Smith was back in 07-08.

Guys are getting thrown at 3rd and at home with too much regularity although I would love to see the numbers to see if that is true.

Yes, when I think 'biggest problems with the Phillies,' teaching secondary pitches definitely ranks in the top 2 or 3.

Iceman - when you can't develop a competent reliever in the past 15 years besides Madson, spend lots of resources to address the festering sore the past decade on terms of prospects, dollars, and forfeited draft picks, and the lack of starters who have good secondary stuff, yeah I think it is a huge problem especially given how crappy the bullpen has generally been the last decade

Funny hoe when the Phils won the WS in 08 they had their best bullpen in a long, long time. Rant away to the contrary.

Yo, new thread

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