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Sunday, July 21, 2013

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Pettibone, Lannan and Kendrick. Just like they drew it up . . .

I read on philly.com that Dubee is encouraged by Halladay's first rehab bullpen session and, that the plan is to bring Halladay back to join the rotation. To steal a commenter's term, color me Dubeeous.

Was that our proclaimed best player who had 4 K's?
Sell,Sell,Sell.

Miller is going to abuse this team.

If Amaro is accused of being delusional about their chances and denies it, he cannot ignore this microcosm (this series against the Mets) of the near and the long-term future of this franchise.

There is absolutely no way this team makes the playoffs this season. He needs to take a page out of what the Red Sox did last season and over the winter: BLOW IT UP and sell, sell, sell.

I believe most true Phillies fans are more than willing to take the hit in the short-term for the sake of returning to contention.

Or, they may turn it around next season, if they follow the lead of the Red Sox.

In any event, is there any reason why anyone except Dom Brown should not be on the market over the next two weeks?

Miller was looking a little like he hit a wall in the 4-5 games before the break, leading the Cards to give him an extended vacation. He hasn't pitched since 7/10.

That said, I do expect he'll get right against the Phils.

Miller was looking a little like he hit a wall in the 4-5 games before the break, leading the Cards to give him an extended vacation. He hasn't pitched since 7/10.

That said, I do expect he'll get right against the Phils.

If you had to bet on any of those starters throwing a QS against the St. Louis lineup, who would it be?

I'd go with Kendrick because of his performance there last year. My second choice would be none of the above.

Another silver lining is Matt Holliday and his 16 career HRs in just over 50 games against the Phils is out of the lineup.

6.5 games out, 2nd in NL East. Buy, Buy, Buy!

Cards haven't been playing that well the last 6 weeks. They are just 1 game over .500 since June 1st.

Offense has been sporadic and kind of anemic without much power, Holliday went on the shelf, and the starting pitching ERA other than Wainwright has an ERA closer to 6 since June 1st.

Phils catch a break to miss Wainright and the only match that is a bad one is Miller v Pettibone (Miller is a power pitcher and has been a much better pitcher at home)

It wouldn't necessarily surprise me if the Phils take 2 of 3 vs. Cards and I like some contrarian value bets depending upon what th line is.

Oh, .500. We hardly knew ye.

After ATL wins 3/4 vs. Mets and we lose 2/3 to cards. 9 out in loss column. If Rizzo smart Davey Johnson will be fired and the Nats will blow by the Phils who will fighting the Mets for 4th

MIA MIL 0-0 in the 11th. Glad I'm not watching that game.

Two most interesting teams to me right now as potential buyers are the Nats and Dodgers.

Does Rizzo overpay for a starter and/or a bat or does tinker picking up a bullpen arm/bench help hoping his healthy roster can make a 2nd half run and try again next year?

Do the Dodgers (contrary to recent reports) try to make a big move at the deadline and pry a hitter like Utley loose from the Phils, a stud reliever, or another starter?

Complete guess but I have a feeling the trade deadline is going to be very boring this year without one marquee name being moved (don't consider a Garza or Rios a marquee name) even though there will plenty of secondary trades to bolster weak spots.

Another solid inning for Chad Qualls era now 2.75. Maybe Dubee is the problem?

Meant in the NL. Maybe you can add the Pirates too if they will move a very good prospect or two for a corner OF like Pence (on the trade market again).

MG: Dodgers are a half-game out of first, finally healthy, and the most talented team in that division. They should absolutely be buyers, though I don't know what their payroll situation is.

Nats have some decisions to make. Not sure it makes sense for them to buy rentals, given that they're below .500 now. But since most of their team is young, they might be a team that tries to buy someone under control for a couple of years.

Dubee's gone when Cholly is gone this year. Cholly will almost certainly retire but I do wonder if Dubee gets another pitching coach job next year or not.

The upcoming series where I see the Phils getting beat to a pulp is the Tigers' series in Detroit.

Phils don't have a single favorable pitching matchup and the Tigers have been hitting the ball really well at home this year - .299/.366/.454 (.820 OPS) which trails only the Red Sox at Fenway (.830 OPS).

Very easy to see the Tigers taking 2 of 3 and possibly even sweeping the Phils. If they sweep the Phils and the Phils only win a game vs Cards, I think Amaro sells at the deadline even though he is dead set against it because he knows this team has no chance at the playoffs this year & very minimal chance next year making him a lame duck GM.

Even if they manage to go 3-3, I think Amaro is a 'buyer' at the deadline but makes secondary moves without taking on a big salary or trading one of few handful of upper tier prospects in the system (Biddle, Franco) at AA/AAA.

It will be a mistake likely but Amaro is essentially fighting for his future this year. If the team doesn't make the playoffs this year again, it is very hard to see them making the playoffs next year given the current contracts they have, the current state of the farm system, and what looks to be an even weaker FA class this year than last year.

Maybe I'm wrong and miraculously Amaro is able to turn around the franchise by 2015 so they make the playoffs that year.

I tend to think Amaro realizes that this is his last stand (playoffs or bust) or he is going to have 2 more years of mediocre baseball at best marked by declining attendance & ultimately his dismissal when his contract is up at the end of the '15 season.

How do we know that Amaro is dead set against selling? And how is that followed by a prediction that he will sell anyway? Wouldn't that mean he isn't dead set against it?

I don't think anyone knows what Amaro wants to do. I don't even think he knows.

I also don't get the crap that Dubee gets. He has his share of success stories and isn't on the top 20 list of problems with the team.

It is also Amaro's last stand but he won't be fired in the next two years regardless.

I think perhaps some people need to just start condensing thoughts to one post instead of writing 4 in a row full of contradictory ideas.

Iceman - I would put bottom dollar that Amaro wants to buy but that he won't get the green light to do so if this team has a bad week going into the deadline at 4 or 5 games below .500.

Montgomery and co have a very lengthy history of not pushing the bottom on a GM but if the Phils don't make the playoffs this year I see a further slight drop in attendance again next year including season ticket sales.

Maybe they do turn it around in '15 but I would bet what is more likely is .500 or less season in '14 and '15 and four seasons of .500 or so baseball with a notable decline in attendance (and gate revenue & TV ratings) will be enough motivation for Montgomery and co to not bring back Amaro back after the '15 season.

The whole wild card in this process is the the TV contract. Call it a hunch but after that deal is signed or very close to it, I could see a couple of people in the current ownership group including Giles and Montgomery wanting to cash out and retire

Montgomery is 67 and Giles is 78 with a reduced role already due to some health issues they said earlier this year.


With no facts or statistics to back me up i think the phillies win 4 outta 6 the next 2 and delusional amaro brings in a couple players for what will be an unsuccessful run at the playoffs

TTI - So do you think the Phils have a good chance to make the playoffs next year in '14 and '15 and don't take the mealy-mouth route and say 'there are too many things that can happen in 2 years'

TTI - What is so hard to understand about the Phils FO being very reluctant to fire their Golden Boy who was hand groomed before his contract runs out yet at the same time the Phils not bringing him back either after '15 when his contract is up?

Phils FO doesn't have to eat any money, they don't have to give into public/fan pressure, and they don't look like the bad guys because Amaro will have had 4 consecutive year of non-playoff teams (likely .500 or lesser years) despite spending having some ample financial resources.

The franchise needs to be turned over. Ruben wanted to see maybe rightfully so what they could do one more last time. You keep Cole, no choice in keeping Howard, Revere, Brown everything else is put on market.

It'll be hard to take one of the three against the Tigers. They're the favorites to win the World Series, best BA in baseball, above average pitching staff.

Hamels Fister
Lee Scherzer
Pettibone Porcello

Which one of those are you confident in? What's the over/under on runs scored by DET in the series?

The Phillies don't matchup well against fire-ballers. This series could've been a sweep either way. Game 1 was a must-win, they won it. The team isn't playing sloppy baseball, they aren't mailing anything in, they just lost 2 tough games in which their 1-2 punch totally bombed against the opposing teams' 1-2 punch.

Looking forward to August, when I can root for the Phillies to win games without wondering if the front office will destroy any chance of a run by selling off talent.

Maybe (just maybe) all the trade talk is getting to Cliff Lee.

Jake: After the last 260 games of .500 baseball, what exactly makes you think this team is a contender and not just a .500 team?

Villar promoted to bigs

I don't think the trade talk is getting to Lee. What's probably getting to him is that he wants a ring, he doesn't have a ton of years left, and he doesn't want to spend them with Elmn in RF, Howard lazily whiffing at every low breaking ball he sees, a bullpen that not only lets in most of the runners he leaves on base but also blows games if he doesn't pitch through 8 innings, etc. etc.

Both his statements and his actions clearly indicate that he wants to be in Philly, but he's stated that what we wants most is to win.

Jack - That is a meaningless stat.

Over the last 173 games, the Phillies are 93-80. See what I did there?

So, so glad I did not watch or listen to this game.

Jake: Yes, you picked an arbitrary end point that was most helpful to your argument and you still came up with a winning percentage that doesn't make them a playoff team.

I do see what you did there.

.

Maybe I'm dead wrong on Villar but it is going to be very interesting to see how long a team is willing to start a guy at SS who could could conceivably make ~40 errors there over a course of a season.

His offensive numbers at AA/AAA have been rising but he still just put up a .246/.319/.391 line at AA in '11-'12.

Cubs have soured on Castro this year because his defense has been even worse than normal while his offensive numbers have dipped.

MG: You are essentially arguing against yourself and you are too blockheaded to see that.

First off- a lot of things can happen in two years. I don't know how guys will develop and what any possible contributions will be to the big league team from any farm hands. I don't know what the coaching staff will look like after Charlie leaves at the end of the season. You can Carnac- good for you.

Secondly, you are essentially saying if the Phillies miss the playoffs this year they are doomed to do that next year and the following year meaning that Amaro if he doesn't make it this year will die out next year. That is ridiculous and hyper speculative.

Amaro is gonna be here until 2015. As I said in reading the book you probably lost sleep over questioning inside your padded room, Amaro is a yes man for the FO. It keeps him employed and even in that position he has unearthed the rare find and deal. Hopefully he does that some more and wins in spite of himself.

But back to the original point- you keep arguing that 2013 is a make or break year and we are doomed after that. Please tell us what else will happen in 2015 right now so we can mark it down and check up then.

And don't take the mealy mouth route and say "You're putting words in my mouth."

As we all know, the team that's the favorite to win the WS in July not only always does so, they never lose a series to any team that's around .500.

Repeated prediction: If Villar makes it or doesn't make it, it will be due to his offense, not his defense. His D won't be an issue at the major-league level.

TTI - So basically you refuse to make an educated guess on what will happen and how this might have an impact on Amaro's decision-making framework regarding the deadline except to say he is a 'Yes Man' for the FO?

Thanks for the cogent analysis and commentary.

TTI: 99 games into the season and the Phils are still closer to fourth place than first place.

How confident are you feeling about the bet?

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/21/ruben-amaro-wants-you-and-your-prospect-lists-to-pound-sand/

Agree on the general point but it is amazing how bad Bill Baer's articles have gotten and how far the content he writes on Crashburn Alley has fallen.

I do like Eric Longenhagen's scouting perspective as an additional data point and when Bill does an article that is grounded in numbers like he did with Hamels earlier this year and his early season struggles.

Jack: The only record that matters is 49-50, the record this year, with this team.

It's not good, its not bad, its a .500 record. This team does not deserve a deadline splurge or a deadline fire-sale. They deserve a few minor fixes, and the opportunity to get hot in August and September.

MG: I had a long post written up for you and the Internets ate it up. Not doing it again. Basically outlined they are 4 scenarios I could see happening depending on what Amaro does and since I'm not him I'm not sure what will happen.

I will say this though again- "make or break" which you say would signify that this year is it for him. So you can't say "this is it for him" but he's here til 2015. Is your vocabulary just words you can't spell and phrases you don't understand?

MG- I think you are basically manipulating reality to fit what you believe Amaro will do. If you think he wants to go for broke this year and just accept his fate of being a lame duck GM after next season, I guess that's fine, but don't act like it's the only possibility that makes sense.

I think it's just as logical that Amaro would want to start the rebuild process at the deadline this year, and if things work out and he gets a few pieces for the future that emerge next year, at least he can point to some progress and some reason(s) to keep his job when his contract expires. What sense does it make to just forgo the rebuild and give up because you think you are going to get fired anyway?

I mean, I don't know what he wants to do. I don't think anyone does. But I definitely don't think there's an obvious path that he's traveling on and he's just going to say 'F it' if they tank before the deadline, conceding to the reality that he's going to be let go.

Jack: They only play 99 games in a season now?

I also notice you aren't chirping about the fact that the Phillies are a hairs breath away from having the 6th most runs in the NL. Why not? Can't troll that one?

"Is your vocabulary just words you can't spell and phrases you don't understand?"

You should see the turns of phrase he uses on the diamond site he's programming. "This princess cut is the Steven Susdorf of diamonds just sitting there waiting for you to give it a chance."

Someone mentioned Dubee might be the problem. I think its safe to say he isn't helping any.

There was already I think 2 pitchers that came out saying one thing is being said to them at the ML level and another in the minors, so they don't know what to do. THAT is a problem.

I attribute the success of KK and Pettibone to Moyer Halladay and Lee. Halladay especially with KK.

Wait, Jake. Did you just tell Jack that 260* games of .500 ball was meaningless, only to come back to say that this season of UNDER .500 is meaningful -- all as an argument that the Phillies are WS contenders?

That's pretty impressive.

* not arbitrary. That's this season and the entirety of last season. You don't get to finish a season 81-81 and cry "But 162 games is arbitrary!" It's not. It's the season by which all teams are judged.

Mick - Last season's record is meaningless, and not indicative of this teams' chances. Different players, different opponents, different divisional leader.
What don't you comprehend about that?

Corn - Maybe the AAA pitching coach is the problem (?)

Iceman - It's a possibility especially this week if the Phils tank the next two series and end up 4 or 5 games under .500. I don't see Amaro being able to convince the FO they should be buyers at that point and rightly so.

I just don't see Amaro being a 'seller' at the deadline right now like he was last year. That was primarily motivated by finances anywhere and Amaro publicly-admitted as much right after the deadline.

here's what I don't comprehend about that.

You think this team is substantially different from last years. I don't. Agree to disagree.

I don't think last year's record is an absolute ceiling, but I do believe it tells us something. You think that last year's record tells us nothing at all abut the current team. We disagree on that. Agree to disagree.

But I was just curious how you are so eager to disgard last years record, when this year's record is the same! I found it an astonishing argument to make. You're saying there's no reason to think this is a .500 team because, look, they're a .500 team. That's the part I don't comprehend.


MG- just for some clarification, you do think it's a possibility that Amaro just says 'F it' if he can't buy, because he knows he won't get his contract renewed?

You're saying there's no reason to think this is a .500 team because, look, they're a .500 team. - Mick

When did I say this is not a .500 team? Currently it is. Jack brought up the Phillies record over the past 260 games to prove how truly mediocre this team is. Can we agree that is ridiculous, or should I bring up the Pirates record over their last 260 games to prove how mediocre they are?

I am ok with the Phillies being around .500 after 100 games. That still gives them a legitimate shot at the playoffs. If they continue winning against the Braves & Nats, and get hot at least once before the season is over, they can get in.

No because he doesn't ultimately approve the payroll and have the final decision on roster moves.


I guess I'm just wondering why Amaro would want to blow his chance at putting this team on the upswing in the final year of his contract because he figures it would be a lost cause. Does that make sense to anyone else? Why on earth would he stand pat and do nothing, assuring he never gets a GM job in the league again?

And I'm not saying this with the slightest bit of inference that I think I know what's going on in his head. He's certainly has done and said things that make no sense before, but I just don't see what's in it for him to wave the white flag of surrender and just watch the team sprial into the doldrums of the league without making an effort to rebuild.

I think the guy is a dope, but I think he does want to build a winning team in his image, and will try to do so until he's dismissed. Sitting on his hands at the deadline would be criminally negligent.

Agree on the general point but it is amazing how bad Bill Baer's articles have gotten and how far the content he writes on Crashburn Alley has fallen.

MG

It's been on the decline since he called us all racists for giving Rollins grief about not hustling.

I laughed when I saw that Baer cited Longenhagen without identifying who he was- a nobody that contributes to Crashburn Alley- and quoting him on something he can't possibly know for sure (that Amaro hasn't attended a game on the Pharm this year).

If Baer is a 'journalist,' I'm a gourmet chef.*

*Currently eating pancakes for dinner

Iceman - Because Amaro will be on his way out the door and that is not the way CEOs think. They don't give a $hit largely about ensuring even if they are going to be dismissed shortly that the company/organization is on an upswing.

They want to stay in power for as long as possible for several reasons.

Maybe I am completely wrong and the FO has given Amaro some assurances that his job is safe regardless of what happens the next 2 years and quietly they want him to begin rebuilding without publicly coming out & stating that because of the effect it might have on interest in the team/ticket sales/etc.

That would require Montgomery and FO though to have a willingness to really have more of a 3-5 year time horizon on where this club should go.

Comments they have made this year don't give a strong indication of that though nor does their prior history. If my hunch that Montgomery and a few other owners will cash out in the next few years anyways, why would they care that much anyways what the team does in say 5 years if they sell their share in another 2 or 3.

MG- if Amaro manages to do well at the deadline and FA, the organization can absolutely be in the position to be on the upswing next year at this time (not a playoff team, but a team with some budding young talent at several positions) which would be a reason he could use to argue for his job.

If he says F it, he's quitting on himself, basically. Given his history of big splashes, I don't see him going down without swinging for the fences.

Amaro: "“We have some guys that may be available,” Amaro said. “Clubs have asked about some guys that you don’t see on the top 25, top 50 lists of everyone who knows everything about baseball. I said that sarcastically, by the way, because I don’t think people know (crap) about it. You can print that if you’d like.

“There’s just a lot of those lists that come out that make me laugh. I don’t see anyone working for any major-league clubs that do that with those lists. It’s interesting.”"

Dear god. When can this nightmare end? Now our GM thinks that the top scouts in the game don't know crap.

Sabremtricians around the world don't know crap.
Doctors and specialists around the world don't know crap.
Scouts and talent evaluators don't know crap.


By the end of his tenure, there will be a pretty great Amaro top 10 list of quotes. This year alone we have:

"I don't care about walks, I care about production"

"They don't have those numbers on the back of their baseball cards for nothing"

"I don't do 5 year plans...other teams do, I guess"

"I don't think people who make prospect lists know crap about baseball"

See the problem here is that Rube thought this current crop could remain competitive this and next year. Little of the way of any future plans where laid in place...

walks...production is #1 right now, but "he has to be better" is a fast riser.

Steve Susdorf - Yeah that is probably rrue but when Halladay and Howard have had the health problems they have had the past 2 years his strategy got tanked.

If Halladay and Howard were both healthy and even 80-90% of what they were in say 2011, the Phils would have been competitive last year and this year too.

ah the ever future planning based on past success...but i mostly concur with your statement.

Susdorf - He made high risk contracts with both but Halladay has been the bigger issue.

If Halladay had been healthy, the Phils this year and last year are both competitive teams that are probably ~85 wins and with a couple of breaks do make the playoffs.

Hasn't been an injury that has so heavily impacted the fate of the Phils since I am have followed as what has happened to Halladay the last 2 years.

Anchor on which the rotation was built and when he went down it opened a can of worms including exposing how little organizational middle relief this team has.

Pettibone has been okay but he has only averaged 5.64 (a little under 5 2/3 GS) which is a bigger issue for this team including another guy in Lannan (5.81) who doesn't work 6 IP regularly either.

Even on the best team, that chews up a bullpen over the course of a season.

Funny thing is that KK has averaged 6.5 IP/GS and Hamels only at 6.38 IP/GS which is well below the last 3 years (6.74 IP/GS from 2010-12 for Hamels).

Only Lee (7.29 IP/GS) has been a real horse this season for them.

So basically if Hamels had been at where he was in previous years, that is another 11-12 IP over the course of a season and it means 11-12 IP less of the middle reliever dregs the Phils have employed this season.

The bigger difference is between a Halladay and Pettibone. Even if Halladay wasn't quite a horse anymore and was at say 6.5 IP/GS, that is an astounding 27 IP over the course of a season.

Adds up over the course of a season especially on a team that has such bad middle relievers.

oh holy crap, I was so blown away with the 'scouts dont know crap' line that I missed the comment on Quintero.

"We don’t have another outfielder that we think is better than the three catchers that we have"

haha wow. You dont have 1 single outfielder who can outhit Humberto Quintero in your entire organization, and in the same interview insult other people for not knowing "crap" about baseball ?!?!?

Unbelievable.

I actually vote that Quintero comment No. 1 on my All-Time RAJ hit list.

The last time Humberto Quintero posted an OPS above .690 at AAA was 2008.

Lehigh Valley players with an OPS above .690 this year (200-AB minimum):

Steven Susdorf: .867
Cody Asche: .788
Josh Fields: .787
Cody Overbeck: .784
Cesar Hernandez: .776
Michael Martinez (!): .765.
Freddy Galvis: .720
Leandro Castro: .695

3 of the foregoing are outfielders & all but Asche have at least played the OF. There's also Jermaine Mitchell, who has a .787 OPS with speed & defense. Oh wait, they released him.

BAP - Quintero quote for me was definitely a top 3 of RAJ 'He really said that?' quotes for me.

Iceman - Didn't even see your list. That's a pretty tough list to crack.

b_a_p -- It's enough to make you sick...

I suppose that this GM is so stupid, his personnel choices block any shot at a Division Title in '13. Nuts.

I mean, I can understand that they might want to keep Cesar & Galvis at AAA so the former can learn to play CF & the latter can learn to hit. And I get why they wouldn't want to call up guys like Leandro Castro & Tyson Gillies, who haven't even mastered AAA yet. I also get that neither Overbeck nor Asche has ever played the OF, which probably disqualifies both from consideration. And Mini-Mart is Mini-Mart. That disqualifies him. But how on earth could anyone conclude that Humberto Quintero is a better player than Josh Fields, when Fields has a near-.800 OPS at AAA this year and MAJOR league OPS that is .130 points higher than Quintero's. What on earth is the point of even signing a guy like Josh Fields if you're going to keep him at AAA at the expense of Humberto Quintero?

But now let's take the analysis one step farther. If they only have two guys on the major league team who are capable of playing CF, and they don't have a single guy in the entire organization who can play an adequate enough CF, or hit well enough, to be of more value than Humberto Quintero, then why the hell did they waive Jermaine Mitchell, who CAN play CF and would surely be a better hitter than Qunitero?

Q was probably kept until they saw that Kratz could catch a whole game w/o a problem.
Do the beat writers travel on the team plane? If so, would they tweet if Q was not on the plane, or someone new was? LA said they were flying to StLou tonite.

Matt Harvey stats vs Phils (5 GS)

33 1/3 IP, 4-0, 1.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 4.7 K/BB, .135 BAA

The bad news - the Phils have to face Harvey at least one more time during their 4-game series with Mets in August.

The good news - The Phils can't possibly hit any worse against Harvey.

I was ready to give Amaro the benefit of the doubt, and assume that maybe Kratz wasn't ready to actually catch a full game so he was more of a bench bat, but then Amaro comes out and reminds us just how incompetent he is.

J. Mitchell in Rochester since he got released by Lehigh:

.300/.349/.450 (.799 OPS) in 11 G with 10 GS in RF

Nope couldn't use him.

Rube's comment about our MiL OFers is a good sign. He knows he needs to go out and get one.

The only reason to explain the "Quintero is better than any of our OF options" comment is that there is a trade pending for either Kratz or Chooch.

Not that all of Rube's comments or moves have a rational explanation.

Unless. of course, you are a Stamford man.

Amaro is kind of like Sex Panther on making secondary roster moves except his success % is a bit lower

'40% of the time, Amaro's moves works every time'

"The only reason to explain the "Quintero is better than any of our OF options" comment is that there is a trade pending for either Kratz or Chooch."

That wouldn't explain it, as the trade hasn't happened yet. Until & unless it does, you don't need Quintero on the roster.

The fear or losing Quintero to waivers. though slight, is worth keeping him on the roster until the deal is done.

Bap- It's not much of a reason, but that is the only stretch of logic that I could come up with to explain Q's presence on the 25 man roster.

They take 2 of 3 from the Cards and the whole sell-now scenario changes. This series should be an interesting one.

Dragon its been like that since the end of June...Fact of the matter it;s going to come down to wire i believe.

You know what? I actually get what Amaro is saying. He's not saying he doesn't believe in scouts, it's that he doesn't believe the Baseball America, or BP, or ESPN prospect lists. And I get that--he's saying they have their own scouts, and they trust them, not the so-called "expert" lists.

But it raises a larger problem (besides just generally being a jerk and alienating other people in the industry for no reason.) Which is that it seems like Amaro once again refuses to consider anything except a few of his scouts and their views on all of minor and major league baseball.

He rejects stats and analysis in favor of Phillies scouting. He rejects industry opinions in favor of Phillies scouting. You know what happens when you limit your inputs to only one source? Your source better be pretty damn perfect.

Judge for yourself how good the Phillies scouting and talent evaluation is. But it just seems to me like the problem is they put all their faith in that one source of information, rather than considering everything they can get their hands on.

The other thing with Amaro's comment is that on the surface it makes sense but then he does what he always does and he keeps talking.

The concept is that he believes the perception among people is that you need to trade your blue chip prospects to get anything valuable in return. He is saying we're getting calls on guys you never hear on the top prospects lists. That makes sense and there is no argument against that.

The point though is why does that dovetail into bashing scouts in general. You can quibble with the methodology of certain scouts because it is clear different scouts favor different traits, but to castigate all scouts as being one single entity is silly.

"The other thing with Amaro's comment is that on the surface it makes sense but then he does what he always does and he keeps talking."

Exactly. First part is fine. And then he has to throw in a few jabs and just sounds like a jackass.

To be honest I forgot about the Quintero comment by the time I got to the end of the article. The last few paragraphs were that bad.

You people parsing off the cuff comments by the GM as if they are the holy scrolls need to get a life.

Ruben? Is that you?

I'm calling dodgers this am and saying lee and chase for Joc lee and few others. Fools gold is what this team is. Or Boston with the injury to clay. The package Texas was giving up for garza. Now the time to get wheels in motion

Did cut_fastball come out and say that Lee needs to be a "bulldog" like he said about Hamels yesterday?

Have to admit, the holy scrolls line made me laugh.

I'm with Rube 110%,and if you don't believe me just ask Rube.
Organization is fast becoming a joke.

I am not an Amaro apologist, and I wish he were gone, but I have a simple question: why would any team rely on BA, Keith Law or John Sickels for scouting information on prospects? The best information these sources have comes professional scouts they have talked to. Well, the Phils have professional scouts who are capable of evaluating prospects. They also belong to the scouting fraternity and share information with scouts from other teams.

I don't know why any team would rely on Keith Law for information about prospects. Each team's scouting department should know a lot more than Keith Law does about prospects.

Keith Law is a source for the fan, not for the industry.

dc - That's true and it shouldn't need to be stated. The minor league rankings are published for general consumption but, they are taken somewhat seriously by people who are serious about learning more about minor league systems and prospects. In insulting those outlets as knowing jack sh!t, Amaro's insulting some of the hardcore fans of the sport he's selling, a segment heavily represented on sites like this. To me, it doesn't reflect well on his judgment nor his mindset as a GM that he feels the need to alienate his amateur critics.

derek: BA, Sickels, Klaw, etc... all heavily factor in what their mlb team sources tell them when ranking their prospects. Its not like the teams have some closed shop talent evaluation that they never share with anyone else, and they must make their own 'fan' lists devoid of any intel from MLB teams.

This is just another example of the Phillies thinking that everyone else in the world is less intelligent then they are - which to no surprise matches up perfectly with all of their most regrettable decisions during Ruben's tenure.

Brother Maynard, please consult the Book of Ruben....

"Ruben, chapter two, verses nine through twenty-one:

And Saint Utley raised the baseball bat up on high, saying, "O Lord, bless this thy baseball bat, that with it thou mayst blow thine enemies' fastballs to tiny bits, in thy mercy." And the Lord did grin. And the people did feast upon the lambs and sloths, and carp and anchovies, and orangutans and breakfast cereals, and fruit-bats and large chu..."

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EST. 2005

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