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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

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Sure, why not? The bullpen is pathetic anyway...might as well give him a shot. I doubt he leaves the west coast though.

Can't hurt.

They could try offering a little more money maybe? If he really is that impressive. LAD is always a threat to spend big bucks though. I don't get SFs interest other than a sentimental/fan favorite type of thing. Affeldt is already potentially on the trade block.

Offer him the most money, sign him tomorrow, and then trade him immediately, offering to pick up most of his salary.

It's basically like paying cash for a prospect.

From the last thread, someone mentioned a 2 year, $25-27 million deal for Utley.

If you could get him to agree to that, you jump all over it. I'd be okay with 3 years, $36 million.

Phillies are also interested in Ruggiano?

I thought he couldn't play CF?

Maybe for RF? We can always dream...

I don't know what the Phils could give up that would entice the Marlins to trade within the division.

Are the Marlins really above trading within the division? They aren't really a serious franchise.

tti: Remember that one time Charlie coached them to lay off pitches for 5 innings? It was against Jason Marquis.

Thats proof that Charlie can coach them to be patient!

Posted by: lorecore
*******************
I applaud your willingness to be so obstinate and foolish on this issue (tti and NEPP too), because it's really instructive.

You believe that it was purely Jason Marquis' wildness that produced the Phillies' "patience." That players are complete black boxes, and managers and FO have no real impact on players' hitting approach. IIRC NEPP, in support of this proposition, cited a stat showing Marquis has throw 38% of pitches over the plate this year, a stat that of course did nothing to shed light on what happened THAT EVENING. Marquis was wild (43 strikes and 42 balls), but his scatterplot showed he was around the strike zone. Somewhere, a determination was made by Phuls' hitters that hey, it's better to make this guy throw pitches since he's got a good chance of walking us if we do. Both Howard and Brown laid off pitches that game that they had been swinging at all year, not because Marquis' pitches were SO unswingable, but because there was a perception (that had some merit) that it was beneficial to do so.

The point is, and was, that that perception and approach would benefit the team almost all the time - against Wheeler, for instance, just this weekend. They win that game if they'd taken a similar approach they had toward Marquis. If a coach and FO aren't the people to inculcate that approach, then who on earth is?

The opposing view, that players are machines incapable of changing their habits, is false, insulting, and worst of all, exculpating of the people managing this club.

Basically, lorecore, you're a behaviorist who believes the only important stimuli batters respond to at the plate is the pitches they're thrown (and that the particular response is constrained by their already- established patterns of behavior at the plate) and that trying to alter their approach at the plate is bound to be ineffective.

It really is amazing that every single opponent of Jason Marquis has managed to change their plate approach against him. Its not that he just sucks as a pitcher.

It couldn't possibly be that you're simply mistaking the cause and effect in this scenario.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/philadelphia_phillies/:

Jonathan Papelbon hasn't been made available by the Phillies but even if he was, one AL executive thinks Papelbon's contract makes him "practically untradable."
***************
Translation: "we AL teams need to try to drive the price down on Papelbon, because we want him desperately. Thanks for helping, media guys"

"I thought he couldn't play CF?"

After looking him up on B-Ref, never mind, I was basing this question off something I read on Beerleaguer, not an actual fact.

bittel - I do believe that Charlie tries to instill plate discipline, but the players don't always listen. At that point, his only option is to bench them for not listening, which could quickly backfire, and benching regulars with this woefully incomplete roster basically gives him no chance of winning games. I do think that the coach is ultimately responsible for the way his team plays the game, regardless of the circumstances, but UC is getting no help whatsoever from his incompetent GM.

bittel: Are you really still pressing on with this stupid argument months later? Just because two different pitchers throw a pitch that ends up 6 inches outside does not mean that the two pitches have anything remotely in common. The reason Howard & Dom laid off outside-the-zone pitches against Marquis is the same reason that every team lays off outside-the-zone pitches against Marquis: because he does not have good deception. This was proven to you with stat after stat, but you just choose to spin those stats to suit your pre-existing argument.

Trade Papelbon and sign Wilson, he gives you a closer and moving Pap could net prospects. Look for Pap to either Red Sox or D-Backs.

In a SSS, UZR/150 actually thinks pretty highly of Ruggiano in CF

Oh my god, bap, just summed it up perfectly.

Beerleaguer: Spinning Stats to Suit Your Pre-Existing Argument

Every hour or so, I update twitter or MLBTR, just hoping to see news about the Phillies committing to being a seller.

Is it bizarre that even with each loss I still think this team is thinking they are a buyer?

BAP, I'll gladly add you to the list.

Marquis does not have "good deception." Tell me, does Zack Wheeler? Do you think it's impossible to take an approach to Wheeler (which would have won Saturday's game arguably) that was taken to Marquis, or do you think the Phillies' hitters, automaton-like, are simply driven to respond to the stimuli of the moment?

I don't know what you think you've proven, with what stats, but try to address the main point: I say players can be influenced about the approach they take at the plate prior to seeing the first pitch of a game, whatever pitches they're seeing in the moment. You, apparently, don't.

Cyclic - Yeah, I also looked it up. He has some pretty awesome highlights in CF.

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=27842189

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=27529421

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=27288133

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=27010585

..and there are many more from where these came from.

Anyone think we can get something for Lannan? After pitching two gems, if he does not implode I think he could be a good trade chip to a team in need of an inexpensive starter.

bittel, why wouldn't they "change their approach" against any other pitcher then? How come they haven't?

Its almost as if Marquis is simply that bad and nothing changed.

Funny, he takes a pretty bad route in the first link

Every hour or so, I update twitter or MLBTR, just hoping to see news about the Phillies committing to improving the team.

Cyclic - But he makes up for it. He'll fill Ben Revere's shoes admirably.

Sounds like they'd want a lot for him.

I'm fine with Mayberry for now

I could see the Marlins not wanting to move Stanton within the division but I doubt they'd care too much about Ruggiano.

Though I dont see how Ruggiano is an improvement over Mayberry.

I see Ruggiano as an upgrade over NoD. JMJ can man CF until Revere is back.

bittel: I'm not going to do this. We've been through this already.

Anyone notice how unimpressive Dom's been for the last month+?

June 9 - Present (37 G, 162 PA)
.236/.290/.419/.709

Hope he's got another hot streak or two in him this year.

bittel, why wouldn't they "change their approach" against any other pitcher then? How come they haven't?

Its almost as if Marquis is simply that bad and nothing changed.

Posted by: NEPP
******************
But that's what your 38% stat sought to prove, but on my argument, it's likelier it made my point rather than yours. That stat was about recent performance. Thus, Marquis' reputation (one he earned) is that he throws balls. I argue that this is precisely what a manager might try to (and ought to) try to get his free-swinging team to understand. To say: "at least the first time through, let's look at pitches, since this guy's history is that he'll throw balls." This sort of approach would lead players to take balls that they would otherwise swing at, which is precisely what happened that game.

Against Wheeler this week, the same approach would have benefitted them extraordinarily (and he's another guy for which deception is meaningless; he throws fastballs 3/4 of the time, and he's still relatively wild), but the point clearly wasn't made to the players or didn't get through.

The Marlins are going to overcharge the Phillies for any player, since they would have to face that player a lot. The only way the Phils deal with Miami is if it is Ruggiano and on of their relievers for a prospect. Not likely to happen.

Why the hell did I get lumped in with NEPP and lorecore on that issue?

I see Ruggiano as an upgrade over NoD. JMJ can man CF until Revere is back.

Posted by: Jake | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 12:36 PM


Defensively definitely. Offensively, he's significantly worse. He's barely above the mendoza line on the season.

bittel: I'm not going to do this. We've been through this already.

Posted by: bay_area_phan
************************
I won't bother you about it. I would ask though that you please point me to the stat(s) that allege to offer support for Marquis' lack of deceptiveness, because I'd like to see how this was determined and I don't recall that being a part of the discussion (not saying it wasn't but I'm not recalling).

Jake: I just want to make sure I have your position correctly.

Even if it was *guaranteed* that the Phillies won't make the playoffs this year, you would still want them not to trade anyone, correct?

Marquis great deceptiveness is a big reason he's been able to post a 77 ERA+ the last 4 seasons despite non-existent stuff.

bittel: Go back to the original thread. There were all sorts of stats posted about Marquis's swing-and-miss rate being near the bottom of the league. Those stats might perhaps explain why the Phillies didn't chase his outside-the-zone pitches, but DID chase Zack Wheeler's.

Jack - That's a ridiculous question. They are 7 back with 62 to play.

Good to say "might" there, since there are other variables that could be responsible for S&M rate.

But when the count is 2-0 or 3-0, as it was with Brown and Utley on Saturday vs. Wheeler, deception is irrelevant, isn't it? The chances are close to 100% you're getting a fastball, but who cares? You're almost certainly getting another one like it at 3-1, and a little less probably at 2-1. Why not just tell yourself, as a batter: "My optimal play here is to take, no matter what I see"? Clearly this can happen; that's what giving the "take" sign amounts to.

All I mean by changing your approach is simply giving batters a "take" sign more often when a pitcher with poor control is on the mound, when batters have less than two strikes. A batter can do this by himself, or the manager can insist on it. I'm ok with it either way.

re: Brian Wilson: Worth a shot. But Phils just teasing us through the media here. If Wilson wants to go to contending team, we're out of it already.

While I haven't checked, can someone give the 411 of the K-Rod trade? Was that a trade that the Phils somehow could've gotten done? Thanks.

D Pat - I think the bigger question is, do you want K-Rod on your team?

A SSS UZR for any outfielder is a joke. Just make up a number and you'd be as accurate.

Sorry for the delay. I'm still looking for a suitable t-shirt for 'Team Clout' that will meet with everyone's approval (including mine!)

Jack - If the Phillies were 63 games out, I would want them to trade Papelbon & MYoung. Not Cliff Lee. Not Chase Utley.

If Brian Wilson is even 60% of what he was this is a given.

whoever said they were waiting for a bittel vs jake debate to take place was right on.

We need to video tape it and all watch like an episode of Mystery Science Theater as they try to find out why jason marquis is so unlucky that teams have such great approaches against him and why the phillies can't just trade a bunch of random minor leagues for the AL All star team.

Jack - Then again, if they were 63 games out, they would be so bad that holding onto Lee would be pointless, but that's why your question was ridiculous. They are not *guaranteed* to miss the playoffs. They are 7 back with 62 games to go.

lorecore - I wasn't debating bittel. I just threw my 2 cents into the conversation.

bittel: Zach Wheeler throws 96 mph, Jason Marquis throws 85 mph.

How do you not understand that identifying the location of one is hard than the other?

And your premise that laying off a pitch is the "optimal" result is ridiculous. MLB hitters do the majority of their damage when ahead of the count, so sitting there and taking pitches until you have two strikes is nowhere near optimal.

jake: but if you did, it would be hilarious because you both specialize in arguing against some of the most concrete facts with an endless stream of nonsense until the other party usually gives up.

The Always-Moving Wall vs The Constantly Stopped Force if you will.

Jake: So you're cool with losing Utley for nothing but a compensation pick after the season?

Or do you just assume it's a foregone conclusion he will re-sign here?

"The Always-Moving Wall vs The Constantly Stopped Force"

ha!

lorecore - Just because all the high-ranking officials in the Moronocracy (thanks awh) agree that something is a "concrete fact", doesn't mean it is.

Jack - I wouldn't trade Utley because he should be a Phillie until he retires.

Jake: That's great. I would love that too.

Have you considered the possibility that he might sign somewhere else in the offseason? You know he's a free agent, right?

June 9 - Present (37 G, 162 PA)
.236/.290/.419/.709

It's not surprising that any player has a streak where they are not particularly good. Brown's slump is an upper 80s OPS+ off the top of my head, I'll take that for a slump.

lorecore, you're a friggin' BEHAVIORIST in 2013! Do you get that? If my dog were a behaviorist I'd be embarrassed to take him outside to pee. And yet you're so yoked to your ideology that you won't even condescend to examine your own "arguments" and have to create straw men as a crutch. From the evidence here, you're not only an assh*le, you're mentally straightjacketed, which is no way to go through life, son.

Marquis sucks right now, which is not the issue at all. If the Phils' approach to Marquis was, that night, like the rest of the league's, the question should be: what stops the Phils' approach to OTHER TEAMS' SHI*TY pitchers being the same as the rest of the leagues? Why, far more often, do shi*ty pitchers - ones who ALSO don't have "good deception" - dominate the Phils when they don't dominate other teams with the same frequency?

If you can't answer it, then don't ever complain about it again.

foregone conclusion!

No jake I wouldn't given his antics off the field. I am curious, however as to what the particulars were, as I didn't see nor take the time to read them. I know the Brewers receiceived a Minor Leaguer in return. That's all.

I'm just wondering what kind of BP arm Rube is trying to aquire based on what he's willing to pay. And based on what he's willing to pay, would that said arm be any better than what they have? Not that it matters.

If you trade Utley, the chances of him resigning are drastically reduced.

I knew DOM couldn't keep up a .900 OPS this year, but I was hoping that he would have at least started to improving his OBP while his power came back to Earth. Sadly that hasn't happened.

Looks like JW's extermination of the roaches the other day missed one.

On Utley, I suspect there are conversations already underway with his agent.

Jack - So you would prefer they extend Utley before the deadline, rather than trade him?

bittel: Zach Wheeler throws 96 mph, Jason Marquis throws 85 mph.

How do you not understand that identifying the location of one is hard than the other?
**************
That has nothing to do with "deception," though, does it, which was the issue at hand?

And your premise that laying off a pitch is the "optimal" result is ridiculous. MLB hitters do the majority of their damage when ahead of the count, so sitting there and taking pitches until you have two strikes is nowhere near optimal.

See, this is where you're dishonest, lazy, or just a schmuck. Would Brown have been ahead 3-1 if he took the pitch? Do you really want to argue that his hitting prospects, with 0 outs, the bases loaded, and hitting 3-1 against a pitcher with ONE PITCH up by a couple of runs, were going to be so different than they were 3-0 that it didn't make more sense for him (or for BABE RUTH, FOR THAT MATTER) to make Wheeler throw at least two pitches instead of one in that situation?

Can't believe this offer St. Louis made for Alexei Ramirez isn't getting talked about more (instead, it's the same argument with Jake for the 20th day in a row).

Ramirez and Rollins have the same oWAR this year (which has been a bad year for Jimmy). Ramirez is owed $19.5 million in 2014 & 2015 and is 31 years old. And the White Sox TURNED DOWN the offer for Martinez. I mean, what the hell do they expect to get?

If the Cardinals are this desperate for a SS, how is Amaro not staging a sit-in in Mozeliak's office right now demanding that this deal be done? I haven't heard Rollins' name mentioned by people that want to sell, but if you can get someone like Martinez for him, you can't say no, right?

I knew DOM couldn't keep up a .900 OPS this year, but I was hoping that he would have at least started to improving his OBP while his power came back to Earth. Sadly that hasn't happened.

Posted by: lorecore

~~

THIS

I wish they would trade that bonerhead Amaro.

Bonerhead.

lorecore: As I recall the Phils wanted Dom to be more aggressive, generating more power opps. His HR rate surged and his OB rate fell. OB is a skill he had since early in his career and the power surge wasn't going to last. I suspect with a little time, the OB will return.

"That has nothing to do with "deception," though, does it, which was the issue at hand?"

Teams don't need to be deceptive with this team. If they throw 95 mph over the middle of the plate, they're either whiffing or fouling it off or hitting it weakly to the opposite field.

bittel: "what stops the Phils' approach to OTHER TEAMS' SHI*TY pitchers being the same as the rest of the leagues?"

In terms of not making hitters swing and miss/swing at balls outside of the zone, Marquis has no peers. He is the worst of the worst - which is why the Phillies (and everyone else) walked more vs Marquis than other pitchers.

Go to your local batting cage and swing at a machine that varies between 80-85 mph and then 50 balls that go vary between 75-95, and tell me if one was harder to hit then the other - then come back and post that Zach Wheeler and Jason Marquis are somehow examples of the Phillies not using the same approach.

Wait, the Cardinals are desperate for a SS? Why? Kozma is one of the best defensive SS in the NL and Descalso isn't far behind. Kozma won't hit much (Descalso would hit better enough that he'd be a slight upgrade because the falloff defensively isn't huge IMHO), but they don't need him to hit much.

As a "don't sell yet", I'd be perfectly fine with them getting that kind of a return for Rollins.

But as the MLBTR post indicates, it wasn't necessarily a 1-1 swap. A lot would depend on what else would need to be given up.

I dont think the Cards are desperate for a SS at all.

I dont think they are desperate for a CF either despite starting John Jay there who sucks. If they were, I'd imagine that Oscar Taveras would be up on their 25 man.

Bittel: I think the point they're trying to make is that the Phillies didn't actually change their approach for Marquis.

Their approach has been, as is the case with most MLB hitters, don't swing at pitches that are obviously out of the zone, and try to swing at ones that are in the zone.

However, with Marquis - due to any number of factors (poor deception on release, lower velocity, straighter/no break on pitches) - the pitches that were going to end up out of the zone were more readily apparent earlier.

As such, it was easier for the hitters to lay off pitches, because they weren't waiting until the last second to make a judgment call as to whether the pitch would be in the zone or not.

That's not to say that hitters can't be coached to change their habits, but it is likely incredibly difficult getting a guy who's found success with one methodology for anywhere from 10 to 20+ years. Especially one who's reached the pinnacle of his "art" (as can be said with almost any MLB-level hitter), and has been doing it for so long that it's ingrained into instinctive reflexes.

If all pitchers threw as slowly, obviously, and flatly as Marquis, they would demonstrate the same approach to all pitching. Instead, most pitchers throw faster (leaving less time to wait before reaction), more deceptively (making it more difficult to pick up if the ball will break and which direction), and with more break (forcing a hitter to wait longer to determine if the ball is in or out of the zone).

In terms of not making hitters swing and miss/swing at balls outside of the zone, Marquis has no peers. He is the worst of the worst - which is why the Phillies (and everyone else) walked more vs Marquis than other pitchers.
Posted by: lorecore
********************
That's not entirely responsive to the question, surprisingly. Why not the easier question for the moment:

What should Brown have done 3-0 against Wheeler there, and why? Explain how his EV that AB is improved by swinging 3-0 if you believe it was.

"Jack - So you would prefer they extend Utley before the deadline, rather than trade him?"

Yes, if there's a good extension to be had. Best-case scenario, obviously, is trading him now for prospects and then re-signing him in the offseason.

Any decision with Utley, though, would have to be based off conversations with his agent about his willingness to re-sign and for how much. So we can't really categorically say one way or the other what we want them to do.

But I don't buy the idea that if you keep a guy, you have a good chance to re-sign him, while if you trade him, you don't. The Mets kept Jose Reyes a couple years ago because they thought it meant they could re-sign him. How'd that work out for them?

iceman: I've been preaching Rollins to the NL Central since May. Never once did I put Carlos Martinez' name on the list of people who I'd realistically try to target, so that blows my mind.

Current NL Playoff standings, in 2013 SS OPS+:

STL: 66
PIT: 64
CIN: 72
ATL: 80
ARZ: 97

actually, LAD passed ARZ.

LAD: 94

Sign Brian Wilson. Sell Paps. Makes sense to me. Besides, Wilson is a Tiger.

bittel: Easy question. You swing 3-0 when you get a fastball in your zone. In Dom's case that would be down and on the inner half of the plate. If it's not a fastball or not in that location, you don't swing.

bittel: you are talking about 1 single pitch. Yea sure, DOM could have laid off 3-0, i've never argued for/against that. I busted your chops for being a moron about the Jason Marquis game months ago, and apparently nothing has changed.

Iceman - What I read is that it wasn't a 1-for-1 swap of Ramirez and Martinez, that there were "other players involved." Which would mean that Rollins for Martinez wouldn't happen...Nobody clarified what "other players" they were talking about, though.

Lake Fred: You mean he has Tiger Blood coursing through his veins?

SO/BB:

The undeceptive Jason Marquis (2012) - 2.17
Lifetime: 1.44
In 2013 before that game w/ Phils: about 1.44

Zack Wheeler (2013 MLB SSS) - 1.54
Zack Wheeler (Career in Minors) - 2.39

"Just because all the high-ranking officials in the Moronocracy (thanks awh) agree that something is a "concrete fact", doesn't mean it is."

Here are a few concrete facts. Concrete, as in, provably true:

Chase Utley could walk away after this year & all we'll get back is a sandwich pick.

Chooch & M. Young could walk away after this year & we'll get back nothing.

The Phillie are 2 games under .500 over their last 262 games.

The vast majority of teams which are 7 games out of the divisional lead on July 24 do not make the playoffs.

The vast majority of teams which are 2 games under .500 on July 24 do not make the playoffs.

The vast majority of teams which have a 7-game divisional lead on July 24 do make the playoffs.

It is very rare, even for elite pitchers, to still be good at age 37.

Other teams have had injuries too.

Everyone who is on Beerleaguer every day is a hardcore Phillies fan, regardless whether he/she thinks they should buy or sell (ok, that one's not really "provably true," but rest assured: it's true).

If you would occasionally acknowledge a few of these realities, you probably would meet with a much warmer reception. Not to mention that your arguments for buying would gain credibility & become considerably stronger.

Per Jon Heyman's twitter:

"while it wouldn't surprise if #STLCards liked alexei r, #chisox did not turn down top rhp prospect Carlos Martinez for him"

lorecore, as someone who knows how to stack the odds in your favor depending on the point you want to make, you surely realize that OPS+ overinflates the value of offense while WAR overinflates the value of defense.

From MLBTR:

"12:29am: The White Sox have as many trade chips as any deadline seller in the majors and they're putting a high price tag on their key players. According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, the Sox recently turned down a trade offer from the Cardinals that would have sent shortstop Alexei Ramirez to St. Louis in exchange for right-hander Carlos Martinez, one of the many elite prospects in the Cards' minor league system. Gonzales said the deal was "involving" those two players, so it was likely not a one-for-one swap."

Dodgers had nearly zero chance of making the playoffs last month, according to the ESPN playoff odds. In other words, they mean nothing (especially in July).

BAP: To be fair, both Chooch and MYoung could both probably be traded pretty easily on the waiver-wire, so it's not like it's 7/31 or bust for them.

Same goes for Utley, really, but I would imagine that if you keep him that long you're not going to get anything post-deadline that'll blow you away to the point where you're not better off just hanging onto him and either re-signing or getting that sandwich pick.

Jake is currently running the most successful BL troll operation I think I've ever seen.

Sometimes you just gotta tip your cap.

BAP: I agree with your list but would you also agree with this fact:

Utley, Ruiz and Young could all be traded in exchange for prospects that will never amount to much.

Chris: "Gonzales said the deal was "involving" those two players, so it was likely not a one-for-one swap."

And those are the key words.

Philli: Actually, I would think that Chooch & M. Young are exactly the types of players who would NOT clear waivers. They're both veteran players, who have been/are good & they don't carry huge contractual obligations.

Of course, you can still trade a guy if he's claimed on waivers. But your universe of trading partners is limited to only one team.

by the way, I'm not syaing SO/BB is the best measure of deception necessarily. But neither is swing-and-miss necessarily the best way to rate deception. If deception produces weak grounders or popups, that's fine too.

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