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« Game 93: Phillies need win in series finale vs. Nats | Main | Game 94: Utley sits in opener vs. White Sox »

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Comments

Great win.

Whitesox with the 2nd worst offense in the majors, technically the worst if you concede they use a DH and the Marlins aren't really a MLB team anyway.

From last thread:


Realize trading M Young seems to be a popular move, but if this team is actually going to do something, isn't it good to have a guy with his experience around, fully realizing we have others who fit the mold?

Posted by: Pblunts | Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 10:43 PM


And guys, for the love of God, can we please go back to "Jump to the Newest" comments option as these threads go long again?? Not trying to be a smart-ass, but is it really that difficult? Thanks.

Phils really want to get some people excited going into the break they will sweep this terrible White Sox team with a bunch of favorable matchups.

Good win. Anyone know if Petitbone's stuff might play in the pen? Not a classic late-inning power pitcher, but he throws stikes and keeps the ball down. If it is easier and cheaper to find a back end starter than acquire a proven BP piece, would you make a move like that, maybe taking on salary but not giving up good prospects? Trying to think outside the box and not tamper with fragile farm nor subtract from the current team. I would like to keep M Young for depth and consider other alternatives to strengthen the pen. Nice to see Bastardo throw well, but I don't see this team able to win 90 games with that relief corps.

They're almost certainly not using 'jump to the newest comments' feature because Internet advertising is sold to some degree on the basis of page views. If you are enabled to jump over pages to get to the one you really want to be on, the number of page views is less than if you are forced to click through them one by one.

@limoguy excellent point.

    bap: i wish i could describe what Elmn just did. The best I can do is tell you to picture a walrus breaking through a floating chunk of ice as someone from a nearby ship threw a baseball at it.

    Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 08:41 PM

Laughed so hard my family looked at me like I was nuts.

I saw the play; what's it going to take to get the Yak benched: a 1.10 OPS from Ruf for the next 6 weeks? I could care less that JMJ has "wallophopia". Mayberry's slightly downgraded offense when compared to Yak is more than compensated by his agile - if nothing else - outfield play.

Come to think of it, Dom and his cannon belongs in right. Let JMJ start in left, and bench Delmon Young for cause.

Props to the team, and especially, KK. Why do I see him as a 20 game winner someday? This is the 3rd year I've said this - all he does is take the ball and never get hurt. This year there's the added bonus of knowing how to get guys out in all situations.

Pblunts - just refresh your browser - Safari (don't know about the latest Windows browser) automatically goes to the newest comment.

Corey- Minor point. Ruf didn't score the winning run . McDonald pinch ran for him.

I wonder how many teams have won games with 4 errors?
Only given up 1 run with 4 errors?

This KK outing reminded me of a couple of years ago with his knack for giving up a lot of base runners but few runs.
Difference tonight the base runners were on or advanced from lousy defense including D Young's non errors.

I swear, most of the games that I miss, they win. I almost said something like I expected a win since I wouldn't be watching/listening, but then I thought: no, that's ridiculous.

I'm going to go watch the highlights now.

living in chicago, just saw that the young catcher the CWS brought up from the minors, phegley, has 3 hr's and 8 rbis(a grand slam today) in his first 5 games.

speaking of the CWS and catchers, their regular catcher is tyler flowers. Remember when he was a "can't miss" prospect with the O's?

Er, braves for flowers. got that wrong. Don't know why i was associating him the the O's.

GBrettfan - Was it you that linked the Callison video? Awesome. I remember, as a "wee lad", my Dad telling me: "Johnny Callison is the best .260 hitter in baseball."

I had no idea what that meant at the time. However, years later, I realized all Callison did was give the proverbial 110%. Another (very likely apocryphal) anecdote was my Dad telling me Callison took batting practice "...until his hands bled".

In retrospect, on a team that also had the incandescent Ritchie ("Dick") Allen, perhaps my dad tried desperately to reconcile Allen's bigger numbers with those put up by Callison. The ESPN film does not underestimate Callison's popularity However - and I'm giving my age away here - I remember the "1967 Topps Baseball Hurlers Beware (Richie Allen & Johnny Callison)" card as if it was yesterday.

How bad was the Phillies' FO in those days not to have won a pennant with Callison, Allen, Bunning, Short, Tony Taylor, Tony Gonzales, Wes Covington; and defensive stalwarts such as Wine, Rojas and Dalrymple? The more things change...

What will forever erase the sting of '64 would be an NL East flag for this team -- and the systematic destruction of the hated Cardinals in the Division Champioship (is that even possible?). With WS rings for Lee, Halladay and not less than future stars Dom Brown and Darin Ruf. Hey, a fella can dream, no?

The Phillies tried to give this one away with their shoddy defense but the Nats wouldn't take it. Nice job By KK who came through big time in spite of it.

No, that wasn't me, cut.

Nice win ya...Take 2 of 3 from the lesser Socks.

Phillyrhetoric-

I agree with some of what you said but instead of moving Pettibone to the bullpen I think they should call up Ethan Martin and use him in the pen. He does have stuff that could play in the bullpen and a lot of analysts describe his ceiling and his best chance to stick is as a strong back of the bullpen guy anyway. A lot to gain and almost nothing to lose; if it doesn't work out, he goes back to the AAA rotation and in 2014 he is either the big league rotation's sixth man or you can reboot and try him in the pen again.

His stats this year haven't been fantastic but he has 8 SO/9 vs 5 BB / 9 which is respectable and is has plenty of upside. I mean when they are signing total no name DFAs and other team's scraps and org guys for the pen why not try Martin?

Since the Phils beat Jordan Zimmerman instead of some rookie, I guess last night's win actually counts.

"Since the Phils beat Jordan Zimmerman instead of some rookie, I guess last night's win actually counts."

Yes, it does! But it's a little more encouraging to see them beat Zimmerman, as opposed to Brandon Crumpton and Dan Haren's Shell of His Former Self. The Phillies are definitely showing a little more life now, versus some of their brutal and listless losses earlier this year. Nice to see.

for anyone who's interested in any non baseball related talents of these players

@PrestonSteve933: Today is going to be awesome... @KevinFrandsen is coming in studio playing IPuss (8:15) a Monkey Riding a Dog (9:00) and Charlie Day (9:30)

Just remember Pence was enjoyable to watch on the field, then he went into the studio and played this game. He was funny. We then saw a drastic decline of Pence in the field. Then he was gone. That's all.

I disliked watching Pence play. He was an uberathletic player which compensated for his unorthodox swing which was pretty ugly. It was also frustrating to watch his 'swing for the fences' approach regardless of the situational or count.

Same thing in the field. Another guy who has real issues judging the bat off the ball and relied upon his speed to make up for his lack of judging hit balls.

i am an occasional p&s listener - whats IPuss?

Not one criticism of Rollins laziness? Not one? A chance to plate an insurance run and he dogs a grounder? You guys stink. Send his behind to Reading for two weeks. Nobody should say a word to him.

I liked Spence's awkwardness.

It's hard to find Nats fans on the internet, but I did read one complaining that the Nats can't beat lousy/rookie starters.

Looking at the probables this weekend, looks like maybe Saturday's game will count.

Tonight the pitcher is a veteran, but his ERA is over 4 so it won't count, and Sunday's starter is only in his second year, so that won't count either, even though he has a winning record with a last place team.

stan m: the play where laroche had to jump to get the throw? Rollins dogged that? To me he ran all the way through and even broke towards the inner half while hunching over to avoid a swipe tag. Replay showed LaRoche tapped his toe on the bag maybe a split second before Rollins got there.

Send Utley to Reading for a week for his 3 errors. And Delmon Young for that play on the triple? DFA him.

mm: Good call on Flowers, he was definitely highly regarded, specifically for his bat, so its not like he was just some great catcher that scouts loved for his glove alone.

Flowers for Javy Vasquez was the deal. Braves won that pretty handedily, even when you factor in they flipped him for pre-roided Melky the next year.

post roid melky is unsurprisingly as terrible as pre roid.

On the Rollins loafing thing; I wondered about that. I thought it seemed like he should have beaten that out, but by the time the guy bobbled the ball he was just coming into the picture. He was definitely busting it at that time. Anybody who was at the game may have more insight. Just couldn't tell on TV.

How believable are quotes on MLBTradeRumors?
According to their "sources", MYoung "isn't opposed to playing in the Bronx" and Phillies "have questions about what is perceived as the reliever’s immaturity"

So now he sucks and he's immature? Lets trade!

I think I would rather have one of the basically ready for the bigs guys that they have been playing at 3rd instead of a guy who might get waived.

Though I suspect when Young boots a few balls in a week, the Yanks might not be as happy.

I know his upside and ceiling are limited but this has to be a good sign:

Cody Asche OPS by month:

Apr: .683
May: .784
Jun: .896
Jul: .937

For any 23 year old in AAA, that's pretty impressive.

Rumors of O's calling up their Cuban defector prospect Henry Urrutia - 26yr old outfielder stands a lanky 6'5 200lb and is said to have extremely good pitch recognition and contact skills to go along with gap power to all fields. Hitting .363/.426/.531 across AA/AAA this year.

Yet another team with an intl FA signing pushing to make an impact in the majors that isn't the Philadelphia Phillies.

NEPP: That seems to be common for Asche. Terrible start to pro ball after he was drafted then lit it up with Clearwater the next season.

Got promoted to Reading and started off horribly, then finished the year on absolute fire (1.065 OPS in August).

Started this year in AAA and has done the same thing, slow start for a month or so and then starts really picking it up.

And its also without the presence of Ruf - I had a theory that those two always seemed to get 'hot' together and since they have batted behind one another almost every game that it must be somehow linked. But Asche has done nothing but mash since Ruf's call up.

One thing that sticks out about Cody Asche is that he makes continued progress as he adjusts to each level.

"Send Utley to Reading for a week for his 3 errors."


EF, no need. Utley is probably so angry at himself that he didn't sleep well last night.

And its also without the presence of Ruf - I had a theory that those two always seemed to get 'hot' together and since they have batted behind one another almost every game that it must be somehow linked. But Asche has done nothing but mash since Ruf's call up.

Posted by: lorecore | Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:06 AM

Yup...maybe he really wants to hang out with his friend again.
I think if Young is traded, Asche is the logical callup.

Utley reportedly spent the night at CBP taking grounders and throwing to 1B. He only stopped after stadium security cornered him in the dugout and tazered him on orders from Rube.

Cynical Ba$tard: you somehow blended a few separate bullets points into one.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/east-links-yankees-young-joba-byrd-urrutia.html

The Phillies have questions about Joba Chamberlain's maturity

Yes, that is what I said. I also said MYoung would not mind playing in Yankeeland. I also asked if the site was worthy of reading.
To recap:
Joba may be too immature to trade for.
Young would be okay playing in the Bronx
The Phillies may want to trade for Joba or they might not because he may or may not be immature.
I say: can you believe these sources? It is interesting M Young would be cool with being a Yank. The Phillies want to trade for what some consider an immature reliever. Wow

MG: And yet about a week or so ago you were praising Pence. Which side of the Pence fence are you on?

lorecore must be a defector from some foreign country with the hard on he has for those international signings.

Down on the farm:

Kelly Dugan has scuffled since his call-up to Double A. Currently has a slash line of .158/.158/.158/.316. 3 hits in 19 at bats, all singles. Nothing to worry about yet though since it is SSS.

Tommy Joseph looks to be recovering from his concussion and in a SSS in Reading he is 3 of 11 for a .273/.333/.364/.697 slash line. He had 4 hits in 42 at bats in Clearwater.

Lorecore, I ended up missing it somehow, so I'm not really sure what iPuss is. I'll try to look later for that segment tho.

I posted this when the rumor first surfaced:

Joba Chamberlain is an overrated douchasaurus.

"Immature" is a nice way of saying he's a d8ck.

If I were the Phillies I wouldn't touch the guy, especially if there are other relievers available who are as good (not difficult) and possibly better ( a little tougher).

BTW, has anyone noticed that for all his issues this season, Antonio Bastardo has only allowed 2 of 12 inherited runners (17%) to score?

Chamberlain is garbage...unless they're giving him for free, there is zero reason to look at him as he's sucked for 2 years straight regardless of attitude issues.

I found out what Ipuss was. According to a work associate, the people of the show (I guess there are more people than Preston and Steve) and the guest hand their iPhones or iPod over to the producer and they set their devices to random. They have to then play their device and the majority determine if the song played is a "Puss" song or if it manly enough to have on your device. Supposedly Pence would not cop to anything being a puss song even when others determined his was. He said he would play all of his music out of his car window while cruising. Laughter and hijinx ensues.

Sorry, shuffle not random

I can't believe GTown has taken a complete powder on us. Has he posted at all in the last few months? I would think this team and this season would be an embarrassment of riches for a chronic complainer like him. I miss his sunny disposition, and I fear for BAP. It must be stressful to do so much of the heavy lifting by himself.

Also, according to b-r.com's "Average Leverage Index", the Yankees must have concluded that Chamberlain cannot pitch in high leverage situations, because his "aLI" is .824. (1.0 is average, higher than 1.0 is above average leverage, and lower thatn 1.0 is below average leverage.)


Compare that to Bastardo, who's aLI is 1.438, second on the team's to Papelbon's 1.714 (24th in MLB) and higher than Mike Adams 1.397. BTW, De Fratus' is 1.302.

"After managing just five extra-base hits in the first three games of the series, the Phils had five doubles from five different players on Thursday."


I had to go back and re-read that. It's a pretty good endorsement of the pitching they got in the series that they won 2 of those first 3 games when you consider they only had 5 XBH.

donc: I do miss GTown's contribution to the Beerleaguer negativity, but at least I still have Jack and NEPP and MG to aid the cause. aksmith is pretty negative too. And curt and Fatalotti (when they're here). And cut_fastball (on days that the Phillies lose). And jbird. And Willard Preacher. And you. And docjoe. And Chris in VT. And Joe D. And Corn (who makes me look like a ray of sunshine). Beerleaguer negativity is in good shape.

just saying: it's not just defectors, ever hear of Yu Darvish?

TTI - I said that Pence was having a good year offensively although he has tailed off a bit the last few weeks. That's all.

bap: RK would be a great candidate for a negative poster, but I think he's actually happy they are bad so it kind of comes off as quite cheery.

"Pence was having a good year offensively although he has tailed off a bit the last few weeks."

Last 14 days: .125/.160/.229 in 50 PA

I would probably trade MYoung for decent bullpen help - but Joba is not decent. I don't know that he's better than the guys we've got now, and that's not saying much. I'd almost rather take a flier on a scrap-heap guy like Rauch or Lyon, but that's just my opinion.

"TTI - I said that Pence was having a good year offensively although he has tailed off a bit the last few weeks. That's all."

TTI I'm sure will cover this, but that is absolutely NOT what was said.

I was not a regular Beerleaguer follower then but did most think that Pence's whacky bat would have pushed the Phillies deep into the playoffs?
I thought it would be the case, I never really got to really study his method of fielding until he was here and I was shocked people loved him so much.

That was a major Rube error to me. He seems to get a "hard on" for lack of a better term for select guys and over pursues them.

BAP: I get your point about the negativity. There is a lot of help available to you. But you and GTown were beacons of negativity in a raging sea of success the last 5 years. That couldn't have been easy for you two. It's easy for the rest of us now that the Phillies are imitating the Fredi Gonzalez era Marlins teams. But you guys were nearly suicidal through 5 straight divisional titles, one WFC, and a 102 win season. That takes a level of talent and dementia and a herculean devotion to the Chicken Little mentality that most of us mere mortals can only dream of. You sir (and the late great GTown) are legends. I stand in awe.

Michael Young's defense has been getting worse and worse, which seems like the opposite of what was supposed to happen once he got back into the swing of playing 3B every night.

He can't make it through a game without failing to miss at least 1 ball he should have got to and 1 ball he gets to but can't convert to an out. So he basically has to go 2-4 every night to stay neutral.


Predicted Braves 2-1,Nats 3-1,Sox 1-2. 2 correct,hope the 3rd is'nt. But I said before,it's been the Philly way.
Asche: recent surge since Franco to AA.Competition is good.

" I'd almost rather take a flier on a scrap-heap guy like Rauch or Lyon,..."


Sil, agree. Rauch seems to have recovered from his bad start in Miami and has done OK at AAA Norfolk in the O's system. The question is what it would take to get him from the O's, considering they have a guy(s) in their pen he might be able to supplant: Feldman.

Lyon has been about as bad as Chamberlain, with a lower K% but also lower BB%.

donc: That's my role here. I'm just doing my part for the team.

awh, Rauch opted out of his O's deal on July 3 according to this article:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/jon-rauch-opts-out-of-orioles-contract.html
Not sure if he signed on somewhere else yet, the googles did nothing.

Lore: Was thinking the same thing. I was originally pleasantly surprised by his defense. It was lousy but, actually, better than I had anticipated. But he seems to be getting worse. One night about a week ago, I don't remember which game, he made a real nice diving play to his right. He got up and gunned the guy at first. Then after watching the replay, I was stunned to see the ball was about 3 feet to his right. Just about every other thirdbaseman in either league would have just backhanded it. He had to dive. His range is absurdly non-existent. And his glove isn't very good either. Otherwise he's pretty good at the hot corner. Wow.

Rauch may be getting batters out at AAA, but he has stunk at the major league level. No way any of Lyon, Rauch or Chamberlain should end up in Philly. They all suck really hard. So, I suppose they'll all be here soon?

Do these injury prone Phillies really have to stay below 20 losses if the Braves and Nats (or Nats) play .500 ball to make the playoffs?

bap, I struggle to think of what you would do if a Phillies team was ever good enough to win 110 games.


Self-immoliation on the walkway by McCovey cove when the Phils are in town?

I've been disappointed in Ruf's approach at the plate so far. I know it's not popular here to be optimistic about him, but I am. So far he looks extremely easy to pitch to if you are righthanded. He constantly chases junk away in the dirt. If he can't lay off that stuff, he'll never amount to anything. I'm still optimistic about him but this is troubling.

Sil, thanks, I missed that.

I would sign Rauch right away. Can he really be worse than some of the dreck this pen has run out there this season?

Taking a look at the current pen, is he more risky than Diekman, Savery or Ramirez? They may want to take a look at Garcia and Ramirez, but it seems to me they ought to know what they have in Diekman and Savery.

I love that I'm more scared of this White Sox series than the previous 3.

Was at the Reading game last night, though only saw a handful of plays b/c the kids were with too.

One play I did see that stood out: groundball down the third-base line that Franco didn't even move for (assuming it was foul.) Instead, it was fair, right over the bag. Franco then proceeded to say something to the ump and point at the line, rather than actually playing the ball.

I know he's young, but if he's gonna stick at 3B, he's got alot of defensive/attitude learning to do.

Just say no to Rauch. Punchable face along with declining effectiveness

Diekman and Savery flat out stink. If Bastardo can take last night and run with it then a solid righthanded arm should do the trick out in the bullpen. Didn't Rauch experience a drastic drop in velocity or am I thinking of someone else?

Franco just watched a ball go over the bag? Wow that's awful.

The thing I fear more than Rauch get blasted off the mound is having to listen to Wheels call him giant and the big righty and compare him to some bum from the 60's who was 6 foot whatever for the Phils.

donc, Ruf has hit at every level of the minors, it's just that last season he had a power surge. I'm not worried about him actually hitting and getting on base - he's .375 .474 .688 so far in 19 PA - but I grant you that the 8 K's in those 19 PA are could cause one to be troubled. I'm not worried because the sample size is miniscule, he's hitting when he doesn't strike out, and he has BB'd 3 times in those 19 PA. He just needs to cut down the K's.


Joe D, that's because you're a Phillies' fan.

I think Lyon is the much better option. He got DFA'd after he completely imploded in back to back series vs the Nats and Dbacks, but before those series he had a 3.16 ERA and a .732 OPS against - far from terrible.

He has a pretty solid track record and is only 33 - I don't think its such a foregone conclusion that he's out of gas.

donc: I'm one of the few posters here who doesn't think every prospect who gets hot will be a superstar (Asche is the latest superstar in waiting, almost as highly praised as Tyson Gillies a few years ago) but I think you're being too pessimistic.

Ruf clearly has big league power and he clearly, so far at least, can hit LHP. That alone guarantees him a job in MLB.

The problem is that he can't hit sliders from RHP unless they are mistake pitches. That is not an insurmountable problem.

Ruf is probably pressing a little. It's understandable. He hasn't been given many moments to shine and this is a legitimate longer term shot at it. I'm not worried. And besides if he doesn't hit it's not like they aren't going to just run Howard back out there at 20% anyway because of his price tag.

NEPP: Do you think it's remotely possible that Joba will have an MLB career? Your posts scream "no," but I don't want to misunderstand you.

Admittedly, Rauch would be adding dreck to dreck - but free dreck is better than non-free dreck, which is what MYoung for Joba amounts to. That's why I'd be in favor of the former route as opposed to the latter.

You're not going to get a decent 'pen piece unless you overpay - something I'd be loathe to do with this group. Said this before, but again, IMO, I'd be unwilling to give up anyone with potential in exchange for a 'pen guy this year. I just don't see that we're close enough to warrant the sacrifice.

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/7/12/4516766/hitters-better-in-the-majors-than-the-minors

A list of hitters who were better in the majors than the minors.

I don't think Darin Ruf is our next All Star in the making or anything but it is funny to see pessimism now because of strikeouts when his 56AB career so far in the MLB is a 1.107 OPS lol.

I admit though that I feel he is at least going to be able to hit LHP with some power enough to be in the MLB, which is good, and anything beyond that would be great.

clout, I'm not sold on Ruf's "big league power".

His track record suggests he can hit a little and get on base. Also, that same track record is one of more success against RHP in the minors than Mayberry, so perhaps he'll have a little more success than JMJ in that department.

The "power" is still, IMO, a big question mark.

However, I agree that he can learn to lay off the slider.

NEPP: Do you think it's remotely possible that Joba will have an MLB career? Your posts scream "no," but I don't want to misunderstand you.

Posted by: clout | Friday, July 12, 2013 at 12:02 PM


I'm pretty sure he already had one and it hasn't been that impressive. He might...MIGHT figure it out again because relievers are so very volatile but I wouldn't bet on it. He's no different than 100 other scrapheap relievers. Just because he was previously hyped by the Yankees doesn't mean he's actually good anymore. He'll be 28 in Sept, he's hardly an up and coming prospect anymore. More and more, his 2008 debut screams fluke. His 2011 numbers are solid but only in 28 innings.

Do you think he's actually a good reliever?

His last 5 seasons: 4.51 ERA (99 ERA+), 1.452 WHIP.

His last 2 seasons: 4.93 ERA (85 ERA+), 1.643 WHIP.

Not exactly impressive.

I'm not as bothered by Ruf's Ks so far as I am the fact he wasn't able to dig that throw by Young last night. I know the longer hops are usually tougher to scoop but that one really wasn't that much of a handcuff.

I would venture that the intensity of Ruf's power surge at AA last year was an anamoly (partly due to the home park.) But it seems he might have an upside of .295/.350/.500 in the majors, w/ 20-25 homers.

Not necesarilly all-star numbers, but very solid 'supporting cast' numbers that I'll gladly take.

Ben Revere: 330 PA, .304 .338 .353


JRoll: 390 PA, .260 .317 .350


Jimmy's OBP is virtually the same as the last 4 seasons (.316), and higher than the 2013 NL average of .314 and a tick off the MLB average of .318, but his SLG has dropped precipitously from the .410 he put up from 2009 to 2012.

Wow I had non idea Revere was outslugging Rollins. Yikes.

Yeah I was pretty much in the crowd that thought Revere wouldn't have a higher OPS at any point than Rollins, but I was wrong. Hopefully Jroll picks it up again sometime.

NEPP: Well here's what we can say factually about Joba: In 424 MLB IP he has an ERA+ of 117. He's got a live arm and a great K rate, but he's had a ton of injury problems over the past 4 years and, as a bonus, some attitude problems.

He's 27, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could 1. Finally have a healthy season in the future and 2. Improve.

I certainly wouldn't trade much for him, but his potential upside is much higher than Brandon Lyon, for example.

Smitty, that's an interesting list, with some surprising names on it.

His numbers are trending in the wrong direction and that 117 is heavily propped up by a seemingly very lucky rookie season that he hasn't come close to repeating.

Injuries are part of it but another big part of it is he simply doesn't have that arm anymore.

Sure its possible, and I agree he has more upside than Lyon but I wouldn't bet on either of them.

Not that I care one way or the other on Lyon but since you brought him up, I figured I'd comment on him too.

1st 124 IP: 2.17 ERA (205 ERA+)
Last 299 IP: 4.51 ERA (99 ERA+)

Which do you think has more predictive value going forward...the numbers he had as a rookie or the numbers he's had in the 5 seasons since that?

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