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Monday, July 08, 2013

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Seidman trying to beat Weitzel's record for fastest post-game thread.

Jesus h Christ, Papelbum

2.5 back of the Nats for 2nd, 7.0 back from the Braves.

Go Marlins, beat the Braves!

Bet a graph or 2 needed revision during that 9th

Two great things happened tonight.

Phillies won, and Papelbon's trade value plummeted.

Hypothetically let's say the Phillies go 4-2 the rest of the way to the ASB and the division lead is 5 for the Braves:

do you advocate being buyers or sellers in that instance? Would you advocate maybe trying to just upgrade the bullpen and going for it and then letting guys walk?

Great job Lannan, not so much Pabelbon! Are we starting to see Phil's start there after All Star game run? 5-2 not too bad against Bucs, Braves and Nats.

***Hypothetically let's say the Phillies go 4-2 the rest of the way to the ASB and the division lead is 5 for the Braves:***

Hypothetically, they'd really have to go on a serious run more along the lines of 9-1 or at least 6-0 into the Break and then keep winning after it to even considering going all in like that.

I just dont see them doing it...too many holes and our complete lack of a bullpen really hamstrings them.

""I'd imagine he's laughing pretty hard considering his d!ck's in your mouth..."

Touched a nerve, eh?

How would we even retool the BP? It doesn't seem like we have pieces to give up in exchange.

TTI: Buy carefully. This team is already in a semi-rebuilding mode, new guys are popping up and contributing. They need experience in a pennant race even if they don't make it in the end. It is not the apocalypse, the Phillies do not need to blow up the roster and start over. They need to give this team a chance to compete for a playoff berth, and if they succeed or fail, hit the ground running in 2014.

Let's retool BLer and trade the haters.

Saw 3-2 win and figured it was close but Phillies should have won by a bunch. It is a win though.

I'd still trade Delmon Young for whatever they could get, especially since he is hitting better and put Nix/Mayberry in if not Ruf.

M.Young has no trade clause but I'd still try to trade him but his is hitting well throughout the lineup and would represent a 'sell' mentality. I just think he has real value to other teams and Frandsen/Asche platoon might be close to his replacement.

Trading for pitching is expensive at the deadline, bullpen included. Not sure if I'd want Phillies trading any young guy of value for a reliever. But a bullpen upgrade is almost necessary regardless.

If they really are sellers, I'd be curious what Kendrick could bring in a trade. Does he have more or less value than Worley from the offseason? I think Kendrick is better pitcher but more expensive as well.

Get better Ryno, and come back and hit 35-40HR again in 2014.

Let's retool BLer and trade the haters.

Posted by: Phlipper | Monday, July 08, 2013 at 10:04 PM

How about we start with the FO apologists first.

"... the Phillies do not need to blow up the roster and start over. "

Ain't going to happen anyway. But the haters will still insist that's what needs to be done, and feel vindicated in their hatred when it doesn't happen.

Little guy hitting little ball

O brother Manuel ...

Is he kidding?

NEPP: And the bullpen is what you would be looking to improve.

Halladay and Howard coming back in late August to make a WS run, oh and Aumont/Diekman/DeFratus will learn to throw strikes. (wishful thinking)

TTI: If that happened (which I doubt), I would advocate a holding pattern. We have a 9-game road trip after the AS break, including 3 each in St. Louis & Detroit. We could pull within 5 by the AS break and still find ourselves 8 back by July 25.

Maybe I'm crazy but my AtBat App just started giving me game day sound from across the league...Sign Brisn Wilson and acquire someone axford like.

"How about we start with the FO apologists first."

----------------


"Sure, you can find a more punchable face than the one in the post above...but you'd have to put some serious effort into it."

Dude, you've got a weird amount of hatred for RAJ. Pointing that out doesn't make me an "apologist."

NEPP: Both you and Phlipper are acting like opposite sides of the same coin here.

"We could pull within 5 by the AS break and still find ourselves 8 back by July 25."

Ever the optimist, eh?

I'm starting to advocate a "two prong" strategy. I would sell someone like Michael Young (and Delmon of course, if anyone will take him), while also then dealing a throwaway prospect for a bullpen arm, someone you can throw against the wall and hope they're better than the dreck you have down there now.

I think you can kind of do both things at once.

I have to admit, tonight is fun. Watching that game, and now rooting for the Marlins against the Braves, it finally feels like baseball season.

Braves using their closer in a tie game on the road.

Didn't know that was possible.

M.Young hasn't been bad at the plate, but I think the phillies offense can make up for losing him if the replacement is superior on defense, so yeah I'm on the M.Young trade train too. Always up for upgrading RF to basically anybody, since most anybody that is any good at defense in RF would be an upgrade there.

bap-- When I saw we go to STL and DET right after the break, that took a lot of wind out of my optimistic sails. Plus, since it's Interleague, I expect us to flop in the CWS series, even if we take care of the Nats.

Jack: Its always possible, but if the Braves score in the top of the 12th, they won't have Kimbrel to close it. It could turn out to be a good or bad move. Considering who the Braves manager is, I'll say its probably a bad move.

I don't want get delusional - buy// sell .. Whatever

JusT don't see us reaching the promised land --- too many holes in the lineup and the 25 man roster to fill

Not a hater --- Just a realist..

And... please no trading away our future ...

Papelbon was clearly gassed tonight after his lengthy appearance yesterday, was overthrowing to hit 93, and missing locating badly.

I thought for sure that when he gave Werth that 93-MPH right over the heart of the plate that it was going to be a tie game. Werth was pissed in the dugout afterwards & they showed him slamming the bat into the bat rack because he knew he could have hit that pitch out.

ESPN announcers made a couple of good points in the 9th including how when Chooch came out to the mound a 2nd time to talk to Papelbon he didn't look pleased with how Papelbon had been shaking him off.

Lannan's 2nd solid start vs Nats this year tonight. Curious to see what gives tomorrow - Hamels who has struggled at CBP this year (which he almost never does with a 1-6, 5.14 ERA record) or a Nats lineup which has been pitiful on the road (2nd least runs in the NL only ahead of the Nats) and can't hit LHP (.218/.283/.343 split on the year so far).

One thing phillies have going for them is that only Washington+ATL/Cincinnati are in front of them for NL East/2nd WC. 7 games is a lot of course, but having only 3 teams in front helps.

***I thought for sure that when he gave Werth that 93-MPH right over the heart of the plate that it was going to be a tie game. Werth was pissed in the dugout afterwards & they showed him slamming the bat into the bat rack because he knew he could have hit that pitch out.***

Werth choking in a big spot with runners on base?

Shocker.

Why did Ruf (a natural 1B who has never been noted for any real defensive struggles there even though he is the best athlete) get lifted for M. Young in the 9th inning?

Sometimes Cholly does things late in a game I just don't remotely understand.

ESPN talking about how John Lannan could have good trade value at the deadline. Mental light bulbs are going off across Negadelphia.

How would we even retool the BP? It doesn't seem like we have pieces to give up in exchange.

Posted by: GBrettfan
**********
So I'll be the one to make the prediction that, even when it proves correct, will earn no credit.

The bullpen is going to improve, and markedly so. Starting about now. Against all evidence of the eyes, it's going to get considerably better. DeFratus, Bastardo, even Diekman and Aumont (if he stays).

Now that that's solved, Ruf better hit with all the clamoring for him this site did.

Someone noted it earlier...UC doesn't want to humiliate M. Young by lifting him for a defensive replacement like that.

MG: Ruf was lifted for a pinch runner.

NEPP - Manuel also doesn't want Ruf to make a late-game error in his 2nd start, and shatter his confidence. It's a good move all around.

NEPP - I guess but he certainly has lifted veterans in the past before for their defense including Burrell.

It's just odd. As for Ruf, I really hope he keeps on taking pitches, working counts, and taking his share of BBs. Lineup has been lacking that all year and sorely could use another hitter who routinely does that.

Hasn't Charlie lifted Young a few times for a defensive replacement this season?

Also, I mean Young is fine at first base. Charlie played to get an extra run because he knew a guy was there that could play third while Young slid over.

The things people complain about are insane sometimes.

bittel - I agree that the bullpen will get considerably better. I just don't trust such a young group in high-pressure games. Axford is an interesting name.

I didn't realize Ruf got lifted for a pinch runner in the bottom of the 8th. Nevermind.

Not going to hate on the win at all, but still trying to wrap my brain around Chollie bringing in Pap after he threw a ton of ptiches yesterday and Lannan was mowing them down. Always take it, though!

Axford is ok, but gives up a lot of home runs, and his control comes and goes.

He's worth throwing against the wall to see if he sticks, if he doesn't cost anything, but it's not worth giving up anything of future value for him.

Constructing a bullpen based on guys who got a lot of saves two to three years ago is as foolish as assuming young guys will all step up and contribute. It's how you got the Baezs and Qualls of the world.

Lannan was at like 111 pitches. Bringing him in for the 9th to face the heart of the order was just asking for trouble.

Paps made it interesting but it was the right choice to bring him in.

Only listened on radio tonite. Was Lee behaving himself when things looked bad in the 9th?

"Why did Ruf (a natural 1B who has never been noted for any real defensive struggles there even though he is the best athlete) get lifted for M. Young in the 9th inning?"


Because when you have the blinding speed of John McDonald on your bench, you have to get him into the ballgame and steal a run in the 8th. He's got to be the fastest 38 year old utility man in baseball.

Better score and Cole needs to pitch well and deeply tomorrow. I'm thinking Paps gets at least tomorrow off after looking like garbage out there.

Scott Hairston will be good for at least 2 hits and a HR tomorrow against Cole.

Have to think he's in the lineup tomorrow and Denard Span sits on his can for the next two nights.

I would start the game with Aumont, just so he could throw a couple 97 mph fastballs at Hairston's head. Then put Cole in for the rest of the game. And then we'll get to see how Sandberg manages in game situations.

Jack: I agree, you don't give up much of anything for Axford. I would only trade a legit prospect for a guy like Steve Cishek who is 27 years old, and won't be a free agent until after 2017.

25 pitches Sunday. 19 pitches Monday. I would think Papelbon would be unavailable Tuesday.

Revere did a really nice job of hitting tonight especially his first 2 ABs. Tried jamming him on his hands and he just poked the ball into shallow RF both times.

On his double, they worked him away and he slapped the ball into the gap into left CF. Just is a guy in a really good groove at the plate right now and is getting his share of balls in the OF and in the gaps.

TTI Let him start the inning. If the first or second guy reaches, you pull him. Never have understood the fascination with pitchers throwing around 100 pitches, which somehow has come to be universally accepted that's the magic number where they go downhill, simply because it's a triple-figure number.

Pblunts - Do you remember game 1 of the San Diego series?

Putting in Papelbon to start the inning was the right move.

pblunts: Opponents against Lannan when he has reached 100 pitches have a career slash line of this: .392/.407/.633/1.040.

He was also pitching against the heart of the order, Harper/Zimmerman/Werth/Laroche.

Lannan did his job and gave you 8 solid innings. No reason whatsoever to risk ruining that by pressing your luck with him.

Marlins doing everything possible to squander a 2 on 0 out situation. Stanton now on 3rd with 2 outs.

No sense even worry about if the Phils are buyers/sellers yet. They have 3 weeks to really decide on that.

Even then, I see the Phils making a few secondary moves and not a big move at the deadline eve if they are above .500 and in contention.

Just don't see how the bullpen stabilizes though even if they get a decent setup arm because there literally is nobody left in the system to bring up who can give them a boost in the 2nd half, Adams/Stutes are both MIA with no timetable on return, and I just can't see De Fratus or Aumont give them 3+ quality months down the stretch.

Dammit, Marlins

aksmith: Your scenario makes a lot of sense. If Aumont came in and tried to throw at Hairston's head, he may just end up throwing strikes. It's a win-win.

@TTI @Jake some nights, it's apparent that guys "have it," regardless of what the stats say. Thought that applied here, that's all.

Since Halladay went down on May 5th, the Phils are 30-28 (.517).

Phils are 38-36 when Howard starts but I have a feeling that they won't miss him at all especially if he wasn't going to sit vs LHP.

Pblunts - Point taken. If it was Lee or Hamels pitching a shutout, they probably get to start the 9th with 100+ pitches. Lannan doesn't inspire as much confidence, but I get your point.

I don't know why I'm listening to the game with the Braves announcers on. God I hate these guys. Maybe it's because I'm worried the MIA crew might not exist anymore, like they were a throw in on the Ricky Nolasco trade or something.
Maybe I'll practice my spanish with the MIA(ES) broadcast.

One line from the Zolecki article on Howard's injury spoke tons about Ryan's faith in the Phils' medical experts:

"Amaro said the surgery will be scheduled after consulting with Howard's agent, who will help them decide which doctor to perform the surgery"

Atlanta up by two. It's taken them 14 innings to get a lead on the Marlins.

Ugh, Braves score two on a Justin Upton double.

However, since they don't hae Kimbrel left, I'm sure they can't possibly save a two-run lead against the Marlins. So no worries.

Ay, senor Hatcher...
Que Lastima!
Y Fredi Gonzales ha utilizado Kimbrel ya. En un juego do tie, tambien... en el calle tambien... interesante...

Nice to see JRoll get 2 hits tonight, steal a base, and score & drive in a run. Especially with Howard out for the foreseeable future, JRoll is going to be hitting 2nd or 3rd in this lineup regularly I bet. Desperately need him to get going in the 2nd half where he hits .270-.280 with some more power.

Another guy that needs to pick it up is Chooch. Give him credit for working with Lannan tonight but he just looks lost at the plate right now. His AB in the 8th where he struck out on 3 straight pitches where he flailed badly was kind of indicative of the night he had at the plate.

Not BBing much and is he is making contact but hitting a ton of balls weakly on the ground especially to the RH side. Another guy they need to start to pick it up & have have a strong 2nd half if they are going to make any kind of run.

Agreed, MG

The Atlanta game demonstrates why you don't save your closer on the road.

Bullpen pieces are likely going to have to be unproven and inconsistent.

Cishek is going to cost something since he is their closer.

I saw Jon Rauch opted out. He's got to be better than Ramirez or Aumont at this point and would cost nothing.

Axford is the type of guy worth gambling on, IMHO, because he has at least proven it. I like that option better than the young crap Phillies keep sending out there that have never proven it. But with Bastardo, Aumont, Diekman and DeFratus the 'stuff' is there but the consistency is poor; same as Axford now.

Bring one of these guys in soon and see what they can bring and Amaro can ride the fence even longer. I am all for a cheaper bullpen but without Papelbon they'd be putrid.

As for moves, the thing this team really needs is a LH bat who can play OF so that they upgrade from Nix but the problem there is that D. Young is now entrenched in RF as the everyday starter. He's been hot lately and hit just enough overall.

Cholly will pull D. Young late in games for Mayberry as a defensive replacement but it's pretty clear he agrees with Amaro about starting D. Young everyday in RF too.

Just glaringly clear though this team would be better off with Brown in RF, acquiring a LH bat to platoon in LF, and going with a combo of D. Young/Mayberry/acquired bat in a strict platoon situation in LF. Ideally even benching D. Young to largely serve as a late innings PH threat with some power vs LH reliever.

Oh my god, Carlos Gomez just robbed a go ahead two run HR from Votto in the bottom of the ninth to end the game. Unbelievable. The ball was easily over the wall and he snatched it back like it was nothing.

"I don't see how this team is going to win because of the bullpen..." -five minutes later- "What this team really needs is a LH bat off the bench."

Cishek is a solid reliever but it would be brutal to have to see the Phils give up say Biddle and another very solid prospect to acquire him.

Good reliever but not great. As for Axford, I completely agree with Jack for once on a reliever. Giving up some significant for him would be a huge mistake. Just isn't a very consistent or good pitcher.

Just kills them that their middle relief is arguably the worst in MLB right now and they don't have another reliable arm outside of Papelbon. That's all on Amaro especially after he gloated this spring about all of the organizational depth they had. I thought he was delusional this spring just as he was last spring when he made those comments.

If this team ends up at say 83-84 wins and largely misses the playoffs because of how $hitty their bullpen was (hard to argue it hasn't been the worst in MLB so far), that is almost 100% on Amaro.

Cholly's inept at handling a bullpen but no manager could position these pieces well especially with a few starters (Pettibone/Lannan) who routinely struggle to go 6 IP.

Iceman - You schtick really gets tired. No I don't think this is a team that can make the playoffs even if they got a premier bullpen arm at the trading deadline. Too many holes and issues overall especially in the bullpen and defensively.

Doesn't change the fact that they could use a LH OF bat but even if they acquired one I don't see Cholly sitting D. Young.

MG- remove the stick from your rear end. I agree with everything you said, basically. Just busting your chops.

That Gomez play to end the Brewers Reds game was awesome.

He's turned himself into a heck of a baseball player. He was the centerpiece of the Mets-Twins Santana deal back before the 2008 season, and was consider a bust when he didn't hit at all his first few years.

But something clicked last season, and now he's putting up an MVP-type season at age 27. Baseball is a funny game.

Jack - Take Brown. Every poster on here except maybe 1 or 2 thought he would struggle to hit even 25+ HRs this year.

He almost has that half-way through the year and I didn't see anyone, anywhere predicting a 40+ HR/100+ RBI season out of him.

I didn't think Brown was even going to hit 20 HRs this year (I thought it would be 17-18).

While this home stand means a lot, I doubt the FO does anything until after that tough road series following the break. And I think, unless they totally bomb or they do something ridiculous like going 13-2 over the next 15 games, we're going to see a buy / sell situation. Perhaps they trade The youngs and Ruiz (with Kratz on his way back) for a serviceable bullpen arm and a few mid level prospects. I'd be ok with that.

I would not be ok with trading Guys like Franco, Quinn, Biddle, Tocci, Morgan, Watson, etc no matter how well they do between now and then. They have traded away enough talent over the past 3-4 seasons and it would be a mistake to trade away more now. They ultimately need to be looking ahead to 2015 and beyond when there will be an exciting crop of guys ready for the show. That being said I would love to see them make one more run with this group of guys as long as doing so does not delay the retooling of this team for the future.

"The Atlanta game demonstrates why you don't save your closer on the road."

Yep. You don't worry about a future hypothetical situation that might never arise over a real situation that's happening right now. If it's a tied game in extra innings, use your best reliever NOW. Worry about who will close if and when it becomes an issue. Maybe your team will score 6 runs in the top of the inning, in which case you can use pretty much anyone in the bottom of the inning.

Honestly the phils winning games like this is the worse thing that can happen.

5-2 over the last 7 games against good squads. NICE!

Let me get this straight. People are advocating to trade MYoung for a reliever better than what we have now?

What team is going to take Michael Young and "throw away" prospects? This makes no sense. No one who would want MYoung (a contender) would want prospects, and no one wanting prospects(sellers) wants MYoung.

Neither one alone is going to equal a reliever better than what we have, and no team will accept both together.


for the record, I'm all in favor of trading worthless prospects for MLB caliber players.

I guess i'm a buyer now!

I have no idea what lore corn is trying to say.

Bittel- did it just get more likely the Sox will need Paplebon?

lorecore: I assume you are referring to my post about trading Michael Young while also then trading for a reliever?

Your problem is that you apparently misunderstood my post. Of course I didn't mean those would be the *same* trade. That would make no sense. Go back and read my post again, and you'll see that you simply read something that wasn't there.

I had this theory that over the last 10 games the Phillies had lucked out in that they’ve gone against pretty bad pitchers (rookies, last minute fill ins, etc).

Phillies Last 10 games (6-4)

6/28 LAD (W) vs. Capuano (2-5, 4.72)
6/29 LAD (L) vs. Ryu (7-3, 2.82 – Rookie)
6/30 LAD (L) vs. Fife (3-2; 2.83 – spot starter)
7/2 PIT (W) vs. Cumpton (0-1; 4.02 – spot starter)
7/3 PIT (L) vs. Locke (8-1; 2.02)
7/4 PIT (W) vs. Cole (4-1; 3.94 – Rookie)
7/5 ATL (W) vs. Maholm (9-7; 3.81)
7/6 ATL (L) vs. Hudson (5-7; 4.03)
7/7 ATL (W) vs. Medlen (6-8; 3.45)
7/8 WAS (W) vs. Haren (4-10; 6.00)

Against Pittsburgh they barely scraped by Cumpton (filling in for Locke), then beat another rookie (Cole, yeah I know he’s good but it was just his fifth major league start). Capuano, Maholm, and Haren are all pretty below average. So, despite going 6-4 in their last 10, a lot of it is a bit of smoke and mirrors, just my take.



Revere is batting .300 He's been an absolute spark plug lately. I'll take his sometimes wild defense. He just needed some time to transition to a new league.

Niceguy-- During the season of "Tipping Your Cap", it's just nice to see the Phils taking advantage of some of those "pretty bad pitchers".

@Bedrock: I'd say, yeah. But only slightly. What are the chances they'll assume that deal?

Is it crazy to swap MYoung for Joba Chamberlain? 3rd year arb guy, and if he can't pitch let him walk.

Last night definitely felt like a loss. Early lead off a bum arm and then the bats fall silent, hard hit balls aside. A mounting pitch count for Lannan through 5-6 innings with the weak underbelly of the bullpen in waiting. Thankfully Lannan got through 8.

Jack: in my post I said that just 1 of MYoung or a throwaway prospect isn't enough to get a reliever better than what we have.

Maybe together you could, but that's my point - you cant package them together since no one wants both.

And honestly, no one wants a throw away prospect, period.

niceguy: I don't buy that. The phillies have played pretty normal competition.

To be fair, all those teams with lousy/rookie starting pitchers got to face our lousy bullpen and our mostly lousy and/or rookie starters.

MG consistently said that Krod would get a better contract than most FA relievers were, and I argued there was no way because he stinks.

Krod didn't get the deal MG thought, but holy crap he was dead on that he still had some left in the tank. Having an extremely good start to 2013 after signing a milb deal.

Also, rookie starter tonight. Definitely feeling like a tip your cap to one of the best young arms in baseball kind of night

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