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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

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I'll ask it again...
Jake, what is your definition of competitive? If the Phils were "competitive" and poised to buy at 49-51 and 7 games out, where is the threshold?
Posted by: Chris in VT | Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:05 PM

Here's where the turnaround begins. WFC II here we come! Woo!!!

They are not going to be competitive next year, payroll regardless.

They should be focused on the future. If they were willing to do that, they could compete as quickly as 2015, and be better positioned for the years beyond that.

The longer the front office refuses to accept the reality of the situation, the longer it will be until the team is competitive.

"For the first time since being called up, Darin Ruf did not reach base safely."

Quality work there.

repost:

Green was a top 100 a few years ago because he was playing SS with a good bat, and everyone assumed his bad SS defense would be cancelled out by a move to 2B where his bat would still play. Now we're in 2013 and he can't even play 2B either and is taking the shape of a super-sub type at best.

Chris - Competitive is what the Yankees have been for the last 20 years.

(Last thread)

Nik- grant green isn't the point. Callaspo and his 0.3 bWAR this year is the point.

I bet they get Choice if they'd have shopped Utley to Oakland. But you know. Phillie for life and everything.

Just because the Phillies FO doesn't know how to emulate the Yankees model, doesn't mean its a bad model. It's definitely better than the Marlins model.

early word is that Iglesias is the biggest prospect leaving Boston. How the F?! Peavy and Avisail trade hands, and Boston just throws in a bunch of junk?

Maybe we should have traded.Galvis for Peavy, then Boston would of had to trade with us for a.pitcher.

Chris - Competitive is what the Yankees have been for the last 20 years.
Posted by: Jake | Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:12 PM

Stop dodging the question...at what point, after 100 games this season, would the Phils have been "not competitive" in your definition? 45-55? 40-60? What's the threshold?

we should all read the #mysteryteam thread before going to bed. Tomorrow may be the end of the era (officially).

Maybe it's like defining porn. You know it when you see it.

lorecore- and allegedly an MLB ready pitcher from Detroit is going to Boston also. 'Lesser prospects' going to Chicago.

What Detroit did here is just stunning, if early indications are true. They bent over for a utility player. This is why no one should simply assume that all GMs are Mensa members.

Mike W.: What game were you watching? Ruf got plunked hard.

Iglesias is basically Fredi Galvis. Detroit just freaked with the Biogenesis thing. Maybe if Rollins wasnt stubborn we could have dangled him out there.

Conway: For someone who relies on translating boxscores into recaps, you'd think he'd know the HBP are included on the notes below and not in the main table.

Chris - I don't see how that question is relevant to this discussion.

@Joelsherman1: #Redsox acquisition of Peavy leaves #Phillies without obvious team that has $$, prospects, need for Lee. #Rangers concentrating on hitter

No trades for us

Maybe a HBP is considered an unsafe way to reach base.

Maybe it's like defining porn. You know it when you see it.
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:21 PM

If that is the case, did you ever "see it" when watching the Phils this year?

You mean we get to keep one of the best pitchers in baseball? What a pity.

freddy galvis milb career: .246/.293/.324 in 2304 PA

jose iglesias milb career: .257/.307/.314 in 1209 PA

Granted, Iglesias does project as a better MLB'er than Galvis due to better contact at the plate, but we're talking about an extremely weak bat.

The era has been over since Game 5 of 2011. The window has been closed.

The sooner Amaro realizes this, the better.

I'm fine with keeping Lee. He'll have plenty of value next season too and with him we at least have a chance to compete.

Chris - I saw it during the 7-3 homestand before the ASB.

Chris - I don't see how that question is relevant to this discussion.
Posted by: Jake | Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:26 PM

You are insisting that the Phils can be "competitive" in 2014. I need to know what that means before I can have a discussion with you about whether or not that is a reality. Because I'm pretty sure we are talking about two very different definitions of " competitive."

How much longer will the neck be stiff?

Jack: Can you please just stop instigating Jake? Be the better guy and just lay off, I can't f'n stand hearing his drivel anymore, and we all know he's not stopping on his end.

Jake - The Marlins went 13-6 from June 8th to the 30th. Does this choice of an arbitrary hot streak during the season mean that they had a "competitive" team this year?

Chris - For that, refer back to my post @ 11:12

Chris - 11:36 is a stupid question and you know it.

Amaro did the right thing by not giving away Cliff Lee.

I want Lee traded, but if he's not, I'm thinking his neck will be fine on Aug 2, particularly if the Phils happen to win the next two games against this moribund SF squad.


Ah not even the glaring error in the recap and more of Jake's nonsense in the thread can ruin tonight. FINALLY a W.

Why bring up Susdorf for 5 games. Did Asche get promoted because of the Susdorf error, or because M. Young almost got traded, or what? Is there some plan here?

I hear the new organizational plan is to replace the current medical staff with Oral Roberts IV and to perform a faith healing on Howard, Halladay, Adams, Revere, and Brown.

Chris - 11:36 is a stupid question and you know it.
Posted by: Jake | Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:37 PM

Why? You took an arbitrary hot streak at some point during a season In which a team was at or below .500 virtually all year and claimed that this one stretch of good play qualified them as "competitive." I simply applied that logic to another team that you don't root for and asked if it applied to them equally.

Can you explain why it does apply for one team and not for the other?

And while we're at it could you please define the threshold at which point a team can be considered non-competitive? Cause I'm still waiting for an answer to that one.

I don't understand the people saying they had to keep guys like Utley and Lee in order to keep fans interested.

I am just one fan, but I would be significantly more interested to see a crappy team with young developing players than a crappy team filled with overpaid old guys. To me, there is very little to look forward to next season if they don't bring in some MLB-ready young players.

Mike W. - If you are reading the posts:

"For the first time since being called up, Darin Ruf did not reach base safely. He had done so in 26 straight games dating back to last season." is incorrect .

HBP hard on the shoulder.

Several posters have commented prior.

It's amazing that BL goes on and on even though Comcast is just mailing it in at this point.

And it also sucks that the season is over before the end of July.

Completely agree with lorecore 100%. Jack, Chris, etc. will not get Jake to change his stance regardless of how much evidence is presented and how many holes you can find in his arguments. Just let him be an optimist.

16 hours left of important Phillies happenings, outside of Cliff Lee blowing out his shoulder down the stretch or something.

If the Cubs move Schierholtz tomorrow, do they get back a better prospect that any of the prospects that Amaro got in return for the fire sale he had at the deadline last year?

MG- We let Schierholtz go because we had so much OF talent on this team we didn't have a roster spot for him.

I think that was/is the company line.

So the Phils largely won't do anything at the deadline now which is pretty much what I expected because of their reluctance to move Utley due to business reasons and the difficulty in moving Lee.

I really hope Amaro doesn't erroneously think that this team & their core was a playoff contender this year that was just sabotaged by injuries.

Maybe Amaro can send Wade into the Everglades this offseason to find the Fountain of Youth as a strategic contingency plan.

While on one hand I'm happy Amaro stuck to his guns and wouldn't trade Lee to Boston without a monster return, the other says the philles should be aiming at 2015 and, given that, this team doesn't need Lee. He could still be traded before te deadline, but assuming that doesn't happen I really hope he's traded in the offseason.

All Detroit gets is Iglesias in the deal AND they're giving up Villareal to Boston. In addition to Garcia.

Not much to say, other than that this is one of the dumbest deals I've ever seen, from Detroit's perspective.

Redsox gave up 4 prospects, Iglesias (#10), Montas (~#30) Wendelken (NR), Rondon (NR) to acquire Peavy and a RH reliever. Wow.

And what the hell...the Tigers give up Avisail Garcia for Iglesias.

Any bets MLB lets the Biogenesis hammer drop ~ Aug 1 -Aug 5 ?

I am completely ignorant w/r/t the minor leagues, so maybe I'm just missing something here; glad to admit if I am.

Iglesias came into the year NR BA, #96 MLB.com. Garcia came into the year #74 BA, NR MLB.com. Iglesias has had great numbers this year in the majors with lots of help from a high BABIP. Garcia has had great numbers this year in AAA with lots of help from a high BABIP.

What am I missing to provoke the incredulity about this trade? It looks to me like the Tigers traded a guy at a position of strength (CF) for a same-level guy at a different position.

If that is the Boston trade, great job by them.
FYIW: Asvail Garcia I think has a worse BB rate than Sebestian Valle. It is really bad.

I'd still like to get Brentz from Boston for M.Young but given the Peavy trade, wow, no way.

Lee almost required getting Boegarts. Made sense for Philles to require him and Boston to say no way.

Papelbon is nearly untradeable so I guess I hope he is still effective despite the swirling evidence he will be the next Lidge.

I'd still try to dangle Utley (he has not signed an extension yet) to the Dodgers for Pederson plus something. Otherwise, draft pick at least.

Now that Lee is staying, what could Phillies get for Kendrick?

Here's a preliminary seven. I'll reserve the right to update these before the offseason begins since it's conceivable that better pitchers become available as options are refused, and that a couple of these guys might die of old age:

Matt Garza
Hiroki Kuroda
Roy Halladay
Bartolo Colon
A.J. Burnett
Paul Maholm
Ervin Santana

Colon is one Five Guys meal from a coronary.

Better to go to arb with kendrick, pay him his arb, and then trade him at next years deadline if your out of it. That is if you plan on "being competitive" next year. 2014 Rotation of Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Gonzalez, Pettibone

Looks alot better than Lee Hamels, Gonzalez Pettibone, ?

If they make the post-season but lose Kendrick in the off-season so be it. Of course, the phillies being competitive in 2014 is a big if at this point.

In other news: Mike Trout has reached base in all 6 PAs tonight.

"In other news: Mike Trout has reached base in all 6 PAs tonight."

Safely? Just trying to figure out if he was HBP...

The bewitching hour is 4 o'clock Wednesday. Should be interesting.

Better to go to arb with kendrick, pay him his arb, and then trade him at next years deadline if your out of it. That is if you plan on "being competitive" next year. 2014 Rotation of Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Gonzalez, Pettibone.


We got 20 million dollars with Halladay too.

How in the world is this team going to be any better in the areas it needs to be better, when so much of the payroll is going to be hogged by 4 starting pitchers?

Amaro needs to go. He has no plan and this team is headed nowhere. This team needs a makeover and trading Michael Young for some C level prospect isn't going to cut it. Not when most of the rest of your roster is crap and/or filled with guys who have awful contracts that are impossible to move.

"I'm fine with keeping Lee. He'll have plenty of value next season."

How do you know? He'll be 35 next year. He might just as well turn into Halladay and have no value at this time next year. You have a golden opportunity to get rid of a bunch of money and a old player and actually get solid prospects in return and you don't do it??? In a market where you have the #1 trade chip? Just because Boston wouldn't trade you ONE kid you insisted on?

Amaro has no idea how to sell. He knows how to buy and buy and buy again. But this selling stuff? He seems overmatched. Still clinging to the hope that all of these old guys he insists on hanging onto, will somehow find it in 2014 (and actually not break down AGAIN). Guess what? That ain't likely. And we are likely to be in the same damn place next year at this time. Only with even older, still untradeable veterans and still not a good enough core to compete with the Braves and Nationals and about 15 other teams in baseball.

Let me see if I have this right with what bittel is betting on:

He is saying that Lee is getting old so it is likely his numbers will not be as good as two of the average-to-above average FAs on the market. In his list for this bet, that Lee will become worse than pitchers X Y and Z because of age-related decline, four of the seven are actually older than Lee, and one is Paul Maholm.

Is that right?

Recent track record shows Phillies won't be competitive next season. Its a shame they couldn't do something with Boston. Lee's value is probably at the highest i will ever be too.

Phillies are going to have to eat some of that contract if they expect to get multiple top prospects for him.

Corn...the should do so. Eat half of what he's owed the rest of this season and another 10m over the next two years. What is the harm in that if doing so nets you the maximum package?

Stonepony: We have 20 million of halladay's salary coming off the books. His option is not going to vest.

Lee's value will be higher in the offseason when other teams look at the abysmal FA market for starters and realize that trading for an elite one on a short term contract is a pretty smart idea. Or during the trade deadline next year when he will cost teams less years and less money.

If Rube wasn't getting an overpay then he was absolutely right to not deal him now.

Cody A popped up on a 2-0 pitch. He was ahead in the count , not behind. Looking forward to seeing him play.

Phillies FO Opening Day Headlines

2012: "We just need to tread water until Utley and Howard are back."

2013: "Our starting outfield incorporates a platoon involving Laynce Nix"

2014: ???

Wonder if today some team nobody thinks as a player for Lee for many reasons (Orioles?) decides "f it we're going for it" and ponies up the prospects we'd need in return. Should be interesting, but If the deadline goes and we don't trade anybody with this team being out of it, Amaro should be sh*t canned on the spot.

Raj won't talk to orioles until they include machado

DH Phils: Garcia is a 5 tool talent with much higher upside, while iglesias is an all glove type, albeit at the best defensive position.

Who do you think has more trade value, Chase Utley(rental) or Howie Kendrick(2 more years @ 18M)?

If they are relatively close or advantage Utley, then I think it'd be wise to deal Utley and then create a package to acquire Kendrick - or even a 3 way trade where the Phils end up with Kendrick + smaller pieces.

Phils win.BUY,BUY,BUY.
RUBE is #1 on punch in the face list!

lorecore: great idea, though stuff like that rarely happens. Wonder if the absolute collapse of Pujols and Hamilton at the front end of massive contracts is hurting the Angels. I also wonder what it'll mean for the $20m+ aav style deals that so many of them turn out to be millstones. I don't think I'd be too excited about giving Cano 7-$140m

This was not a hopeful piece.

@magelb: The Phillies aren't good enough to be buyers or sellers, @bobfordsports says, and the view isn't all that great. http://t.co/HJlykxuUhb

Seriously, Comcast? You couldn't hire a few guys who actually watch the games? Or would no amount of money convince someone to watch this season except through the soothing filter of the AtBat app's box score and video highlights?

Does anyone think we'll get a valuable piece for Lee this offseason at his current salary? Seems pretty unlikely to me.

Looks like Lee will stay a Philly for the rest of his current contract. Which is not the end of the world, since he's still a very good pitcher, but maybe not the best outcome, given he's not really the sort of player you want when you're trying to retool.

As disappointing as last night was, I can't really attack Amaro.

Sox cheaped out on Peavy, A's cheaped out on Callaspo, Tigers cheaped out on iglesias. If all the buyers simply want to nickle and dime their needs, then you can't really have success trading pieces like Lee and Utley.

There's definitely a side you could take where you blame Amaro for not negotiating realistically which forced all his suitors to look elsewhere, but even for a pure Ruben hater, that's a little too much speculation.

"Maybe a HBP is considered an unsafe way to reach base."

Posted by: jbird | Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:28 PM
-----
Funniest thing on this site in months...

I don't really blame Amaro either. He was taking a hard line stance with Lee (rightfully so) and the Red Sox blinked and went with a clearly inferior option in Peavy.

There is an outside chance to me that the Cardinals might get involved on Lee yet.

Well the A's and Tigers may have cheaped out because Utley and Rollins were never available.

I think it is unfair the way some people on here jump all over the recap writers mostly- but that is a glaring error on the Ruf thing from last night.

Lore, totally agree with you. Given the pieces that were given up thus far, there's a legitimate argument to be made that teams only wanted to nickel and dime. Lee was more of a $5 piece, and if teams only wanted to pay a $1 for him, it was right to hold on to him.

That being said, I think you could've gotten something for Utley. I don't understand why the Phil's couldn't trade him for whatever and then resign him this offseason.why is it so imperative he stay here now unless the Phil's are convinced that if he goes, he's never coming back?

I'm willing to give Amaro until 4 PM before any judgment is made, obviously.

As of now, my prediction is that we're not going to trade anyone outside of M. Young, and that will simply force us into another year of a mediocre team pretending to contend.

I hope I'm wrong, and that Amaro can extract some real value at the deadline.

David DeJesus
Joe Thatcher

Acquires to stay just crappy enough to go 81-81

Cards really want Rollins. They're kicking the tires on everyone's SS and are willing to pay, but not Wacha or Carlos Martinez - who are obviously overpays for guys like Rollins/Alexei/Aybar.

They have plenty to offer, Ruben needs to swoop in with lower demands than that of LAA/CHW and make this happen.

I think it is unfair the way some people on here jump all over the recap writers mostly- but that is a glaring error on the Ruf thing from last night.

I heard the Phils announcers refer to Ruf continuing the streak several times last night -- and I was busy flipping between the Phils, Lonesome Dove and the WWII movie on TCM because Hedy Lamarr was in it. (Hedy is definitely time travel worthy).

Chris (in Vermont):
If you have a major league team, you compete in major league games. Clearly that makes you competitive. (I guess.)

TTI: ... And the count on Asche's pop-up, and the lack of any detail or insight beyond what any of us could do with a box score, and the clear disinterest in reading the comments and/or fixing the errors...

In fact, could someone just get JW to ask them to hand the keys over to lorecore, NEPP, BAP, and Jack (comic relief)? They spend enough time here anyway, how much more effort would it take to just write the headers and add the Jump to Newest Comments button?

GBrett - For a more optimistic outlook, I recommend this piece from Brookover:

The Phils can and should reload, starting with the bullpen
http://articles.philly.com/2013-07-29/sports/40850238_1_ruben-amaro-jr-chase-utley-phils

[Excerpt:]
We've seen it happen in New York and Boston in the American League. We've seen the St. Louis Cardinals go to the postseason 10 times in the last 17 years with an 11th trip looking very likely as the season heads into its final two months.

Even those teams have an occasional hiccup and, as the Phillies complete their post-all-star-break road trip, it sure looks as if this is going to be a second straight acid-reflux season.

It should not be forgotten that the Phillies won five straight division titles from 2007 through 2011, and with the second wild card that is now in place they would have also been in the playoffs in 2005 and 2006.

The Phillies haven't had a losing season since 2002, so that's a pretty good decade run, especially when you factor in the World Series title, two National League pennants, two league MVP awards, a Cy Young Award, a perfect game, and a postseason no-hitter. Bet we could find a lot of buyers who'd be willing to trade what their favorite team has done since 2003.

More of the same is expected here and it should be. Citizens Bank Park and all the citizens who have filled it since it opened in 2004 are instrumental in the payroll's skyrocketing, and those fans have every right to demand annual excellence...

...Yes, there is risk involved in extending Utley and his creaky knees, just as there is risk in signing an international player such as Gonzalez. But the teams mentioned above have never shied away from risk.

The Cardinals, for example, signed Carlos Beltran to a two-year deal worth $26 million when he had averaged 96 games per year the previous three seasons because of his own creaky knees.

St. Louis signed Matt Holliday to a seven-year deal worth $120 million at the age of 30 and probably will not be getting a great return for the money at the back end of that deal.

What St. Louis also has done, of course, is develop its own players, which is the same formula the Phillies used for their sustained run of success. What's worth noting is that the guys who have emerged for the Cardinals were not considered elite prospects as they climbed through the minor leagues....

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