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Friday, July 19, 2013

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KAS - I think I would still put Quinn above Crawford because Quinn is in Low A and Crawford has played all of 15 games in the GCL.

Glowing praise for the 5th ranked prospect according to Philly.com:

"He reminds me of... Pete Orr, physically."

Yep, that's Cody Asche.

RedBurb: That's true, regarding their amount of play, but not sure that's enough to call Quinn a better prospect. I figure it's only a matter of time until that changes. Especially considering Quinn may not be a SS for long.

The Pete Orr?


Wow, that's high praise.

They might give Quinn another year at SS in Clearwater next year but I'm starting to doubt it.

So it's official? No roster move?

I guess when you're this good . . .

I don't see why you wouldn't keep Quinn at short. There's no reason to move him off at this point. Crawford and Quinn aren't on the same team.

NEPP: Sounds like a CF in the making. He was converted to SS in the first place.

***I don't see why you wouldn't keep Quinn at short. ***

Well, he's embarrassingly bad at SS...so maybe his bat will come back around if he's not humiliating himself out there every night at SS.

***Sounds like a CF in the making***

Yup...and he's still a good prospect even if he has to go back to CF.

If you're operating under the assumption that the manager is extremely averse to using the backup catcher as a pinch-hitter, as the Phillies likely are, I think keeping 3 catchers makes sense. I certainly like Kratz as a RH PH bat better than Michael Martinez as a 3rd SS.

Of course, having only 1 CF isn't exactly ideal. Maybe they're close to making a trade.

Why, exactly, are they carrying 3 catchers still? Does Humberto Quintero play another position that we don't know about?

"Why, exactly, are they carrying 3 catchers still? Does Humberto Quintero play another position that we don't know about?"

We're keeping him for his 61 career OPS+.

I would imagine that when this game reaches the 11th inning and Quintero is forced to PH with the bases loaded, the website will crash.

If they get swept in this series (distinct possibility if they lose tonight with Wheeler and Harvey looming), that's it, right? No more talking of buying?

Three games under .500 with series at possibly the two best teams in baseball before the deadline. Frankly, if they do anything but sweep here, I'd still be leery of buying.

Btw, not sure how many of you have seen Wheeler pitch, but I watched a few of his first starts on my laptop since I have him in my dynasty league. This team isn't touching him. The best and only hope is that he's wild to the point that even these guys lay off his fastball and get him out of the game by the 6th inning. He's got a better fastball than Harvey. He just has to learn how to command it (that's not as much of a problem when you are facing a team that swings at everything).

Can't believe the Mets got him for 2 months of Carlos Beltran. Look at what we got for 1.5 years of Pence. Hold on, I have to throw up again.

Regarding Jeter/GoldGloves/fieldingWAR:

I've always felt that a spectacular play should erase one error from the slate. If a misplayed would-be-out is an error, shouldn't a great play on a would-be-hit count for more than just a "made play" when evaluating a player defensively?

If they get swept in this series (distinct possibility if they lose tonight with Wheeler and Harvey looming), that's it, right? No more talking of buying?
-
Hmm, let's see.. How about if they sweep this series. No more talk of selling?

And the whole thing is even more amazing when you figure Amaro didn't have to deal Pence, whereas Alderson had to give up Beltran or risk losing him in FA and getting nothing but a pick.

Sabean is a dolt, and if Amaro could have played some hardball with him instead of dumping Pence like he was on fire, he could've gotten him to cough up Gary Brown or maybe even Pill or Belt.

Iceman - I have a little more faith in our hitters than you do. Over this short run of good baseball, they've scored well above the opposing pitchers ERA on several occasions. Including against pitchers like Jeff Locke and Jordan Zimmerman.

Jake: UZR/150 measures a lot of things including range. Players who make great plays in areas usually outside of their range are rewarded.

*** Sabean is a dolt***

One who managed to win 2 of the last 3 WS. So while he makes some major blunders, he's still done okay over the years. That deal was pretty rough though...as was the Zito contract, etc etc.

Zack Wheeler is no Matt Harvey.

He's a solid prospect, but that's what he is right now. Not saying the Phillies will beat him up, but he's no Matt Harvey.

KAS - I still think a player should get some sort of extra defensive credit (not buried somewhere in his UZR/150 statistics) for making an out on a would-be-hit.

Also, when an infielder makes a diving stop, then throws the ball away at 1st, and the runner doesn't advance a base, it shouldn't be an error.

Rollins 6, Young 5, Utley 4, Brown 7, Ruf 3, Young 9, Mayberry 8, Ruiz 2, Kendrick 1

NEPP - Thank God there is a precedent for a team winning multiple WS with a GM that makes several trade/signing blunders over the years. Keep phaith alive.

I always thought Sabean was overall an okay GM but he was more 'lucky' than 'good' in terms of his moves especially his FA signings. He's signed a ton of crappy veteran FAs over the years in SF.

Looks like Charlie is putting the onus on Rollins to be the leadoff hitter with Revere out. Hopefully MYoung's GIDP curse is lifted.

Jake: It's not buried. Making great plays outside your normal area is at the heart of these advanced defensive metrics. If you want a defensive stat that rewards a player for a great play and penalizes them for botching a routine play, these advanced defensive metrics are your best bet.

Sabean definitely got lucky a few times...he basically did the same thing Rube did by having a monster rotation but fortunately for him, Cody Ross went nuts one year and the other, their pitching just rolled everyone.

I like the look of this lineup, hope it works:

1. Rollins
2. MYoung
3. Utley
4. Brown
5. Ruf
6. DYoung
7. Mayberry
8. Chooch

Rollins-Young batting 1-2 again should definitely help in the GIDP department.

Meanwhile, defensive metrics almost penalize guys that make all the routine plays and hardly have any errors (Jeter comes to mind, Rollins does too...albeit with significantly better range than Jeter), etc etc.

The fact that he gave Wheeler up may have made it less likely he would have even considered Gary Brown.

Very similar to DeFratus getting called up late and instantly becoming the 8th inning guy (for a bit), apparently Ruf has already surpassed DYoung as the RH bat who protects Brown

The Big Truck scooted North after being signed to the PawSox.

"Iceman - I have a little more faith in our hitters than you do. Over this short run of good baseball, they've scored well above the opposing pitchers ERA on several occasions. Including against pitchers like Jeff Locke and Jordan Zimmerman."

If 2 earned runs in 6.1 innings versus Zimmerman (2.58 ERA) and another 2 earned in 5.2 innings versus Locke (2.12 ERA) qualify for well over their ERA's then yes, the Phillies absolutely *kill* elite pitching...

"when an infielder makes a diving stop, then throws the ball away at 1st, and the runner doesn't advance a base, it shouldn't be an error"

Somewhere an official scorer has already done this or will soon. We watch a league where balls hit right at fielders, that hit their gloves and bounce off, are now called hits if the ball is hit with any kind of velocity.

Sil - Yeah, that's why I liked Rollins batting 2nd. A popup is better than a GIDP. Hopefully MYoung's penchant for grounding into DP's was a fluke.

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/jonathan-papelbon-expendable

It would be amusing to see Amaro go the 'Ernst Stavro Blofeld' route while summoning Papelbon to his office only to press a button that on Papelbon's chair which immediately deposits him on Broad Street/Pattison Avenue with a Greyhound Ticket, his belongings, and instructions on where he has been traded.

Gary Brown is now 24 and barely cracking a .700 OPS in the PCL.

.244 AVG/.302 OBP/.724 OPS

I dont think we missed out on anything there.

Couple things I wanted to touch on from last thread:

#1. For awh : I don't know what browser you use, but there is a very handy Chrome extension here Baseball Player Search that makes looking up players on BRef, FG, & BP very quick

#2: Brilliant "golden rule" reference by NEPP.

#2: Brilliant "golden rule" reference by NEPP.

Posted by: Mick O | Friday, July 19, 2013 at 04:06 PM

Someone got it!! Yes!!!

WP - Ok, they hit guys like Detwiler (4ER in 6IP) and Cole (3ER in 5.1IP) well above their ERA, and guys like Locke & Zimmermann more moderately above their ERA. Point remains, they've held their own against good pitchers recently.

It's not dumb luck that Michael Young hits into double plays.

It's a combination of the fact he's got a career high GB rate (56%) and 20% of his at bats this year have come with a runner on first and fewer than 2 outs.

I doubt he will suddenly start hitting fewer ground balls.

Hoping a few days really helped JRoll physically and even mentally.

He's one of my top 3 keys of whether or not this team has a shot at making a legit playoff run. Need a 2nd half out of JRoll where he plays slightly better defense but more importantly is a ~.270 AVG/~.340 OBP/~.800 OPS

I don't think JRoll has in him though anymore especially a higher average because of his BABIP on grounders.

Last year he put up a .243/.322/.458 (.780 OPS) and his increased SLG was driven by his his 15 HRs vs 8 HRs in the 1st half.

In 2011, he put up a line of .269/.333/.425 (.758 OPS).

You have to go all the way back to '09 when he had a really great 2nd half surge:

.272/.306/.495 (.801) OPS which was fueled by a notable uptick in HRs (14 HRs vs 7 HRs in the 1st half that year).

Why did they have a mandatory workout on the hottest day of the year?

KAS - I don't have the stats handy, but it seems like he's been driving the ball better lately. Meaning, less ground balls and more fly balls and line drives. If his recent stats confirm that, it would explain the recent drop in GIDP.

Conway Twitty - Crack medical and training staff?

I'm really gonna miss JRoll when he's not a Phillie anymore (I'm assuming when he retires in a few years). I have a bad feeling that after Jimmy is gone, SS is going to be much the same as 3B has been since Michael Jack retired. Sure, Rolen came in quickly but a big part of the fans issues with him came down to him not being Michael Jack. Jimmy (and Utley) will both be monumentally hard to replace as players.

Do anyone think the Phils have another reliever who besides Bastardo or Papelbon that is capable of giving them an ERA of under 3 or 3.25 in the 2nd half?

Batting Rollins first will definitely go a long way toward reducing Michael Young's GIDPs.

Why did they have a mandatory workout on the hottest day of the year?

Posted by: Conway Twitty | Friday, July 19, 2013 at 04:20 PM

For the same reason I went for a bike ride at lunch....they're fvcking morons?

WP - They actually didn't face Detwiler this last series with the Nats. That was the previous series. They did face the Jordan kid and hit him ok. Earlier in the year the Phillies were unable to hit anyone, especially rookies they hadn't faced before, and junkballers. I remember seeing posters telling us to get a good nights' sleep because Capuano was gonna junk-ball the Phillies to death.

Batting Rollins first will definitely go a long way toward reducing Michael Young's GIDPs.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, July 19, 2013 at 04:23 PM

some text

The most random thing in the Top 25 Phils' prospects:

"He (Jesse Biddle) also has battled whooping cough for most of the season."

Completely random and I had no idea that he had been discussed with that. Too bad a booster shoot when he was a teen would have prevented that.

***"He (Jesse Biddle) also has battled whooping cough for most of the season."

Completely random and I had no idea that he had been discussed with that. Too bad a booster shoot when he was a teen would have prevented that.
***

The last thing we need is our top pitching prospect to get autism.

~ducks~

BASEBALL!

Jake: The decline in GIDP likely has more to do with where he bats in the order than anything else. He hit into 12 double plays in April and May (6 per month) never leading off. He hit into 4 in June even though he lead off in a third of the teams games. He's hit into only one so far in July and has lead off in 5 of 13 games.

Like bap said, with Rollins ahead of him, it shouldn't be a problem.

MG: In a dream scenario, I suppose De Fratus could, he seems to have the stuff for it. But I don't see it from anyone but those top 2.

From MLBTradeRumors:

The Red Sox have signed right-handers Jose Contreras and Brandon Lyon to minor league deals and assigned each to Triple-A Pawtucket, the team announced (hat tip: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald on Twitter).


I guess Rube couldn't do this? Because?

So the reverese jinx for Rollins should be in full effect... but that just means more GIDPs for Young.

A lose-lose scenario.

How's Big Z's rehab going?

NEPP: How do we know Amaro didn't try? Maybe those players liked the idea of pitching for a first place team well above .500 instead of a 3rd place team mired in mediocrity.

Just sayin'.

I can't let go of this Humberto Quintero thing. Ok, it frees up Kratz to pinch-hit. There are 2 problems with that logic. First, he was already free to pinch-hit (especially in the later innings) just like your backups at other positions are free to pinch-hit even if there's no backup left on the bench. Second, what happens if the Phillies pinch-hit a few times & make a defensive substitution or two and, when the 9th inning rolls around, there's no one left to pinch-hit in a critical situation except Humberto Quintero, with his 61 career OPS+? And how much greater are the chances of that scenario than the chances of your catcher getting injured, and having to leave the game, after you've already used up the backup catcher for pinch-hitting? 50 times greater? 100 times? 500 times? Can anyone actually think of a game in which our starting catcher had to leave the game during the window of time in which we might want to use our backup catcher as a pinch hitter (i.e., after, say, the 6th inning)?

It is just shocking to me how many of the Phillies' roster decisions are based on a convoluted mid-game injury scenario which has almost zero chance of ever happening.

NEPP - At the risk of starting a raging debate, I believe the risks associated with excessive inoculation are mostly limited to infants. An adult getting a whooping cough vaccination shouldn't carry much risk. I say it shouldn't because there is really no way of knowing without carrying out an enormously wide-ranging study.

Jake, it was a total joke...there is zero link between the two (innoculations and autism that is).

Shocking that a guy like Biddle would even contract Pertussis these days.

At the risk of continuing a raging debate...

There is zero evidence of a connection between vaccinations and autism.

Good, let's move on.

***
How do we know Amaro didn't try? Maybe those players liked the idea of pitching for a first place team well above .500 instead of a 3rd place team mired in mediocrity.
***

Very true.

BAP - Your a lawyer and just don't understand the advanced risk scenario and injury probabilities the crack training and medical staff calculate and provide to Amaro and the FO.

BAP - Thanks for speaking out about Quintero. I was starting to think I'm the only one who considers it objectionable that he's still on our roster.

"From MLBTradeRumors:

The Red Sox have signed right-handers Jose Contreras and Brandon Lyon to minor league deals and assigned each to Triple-A Pawtucket, the team announced (hat tip: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald on Twitter).


I guess Rube couldn't do this? Because?"

NEPP - I have wondered the same thing and why not try to strike proverbial 'lightening in a bottle' with one of these guys for 4-6 weeks unless Amaro and the FO are so delusional that they think guys like JC Ramirez, Savery, and Diekman are the answer.

It's only not that objectionable if you believe the alternative was Mini Mart. Even then...

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 5m
Jeremy Horst’s season is likely over. Mike Adams is headed to surgery. Mike Stutes is shut down again


Kind of disappointed that Mini-Mart hasn't been up.

Everybody needs a bad guy/proverbial punching bag and he has been it for Beerleaguer the last 2 years.

Stutes career is likely in jeopardy. He's had shoulder issues now for 2+ years.

Pick the season-ending surgery which Horst is headed to also. I'll take exploratory shoulder surgery.

What's wrong with Stutes?
I am kind of perplexed that Adam's has not had surgery yet too.

MG: As I wrote, how do we know the Phillies didn't try? It's not like Amaro has been adverse to this type of signing (see Zambrano, Carlos, for example).

Sucks for Stutes...2 shoulder injuries is a real killer.

What surgery is Adams having?

I thought Adams was gone for 2013 no matter when he had surgery.

Cyclic - Adams never had surgery.

So from our opening day bullpen possibilities, we've lost Horst, Stutes and Adams. Aumonthas been terribly erratic. Valdes was bad.

Been a great year!

KAS - You don't know 100% but Amaro/none of the beat writers have mentioned on here or any of the other Phils' blogs I have seen.

You certainly think that given how sh~tty his bullpen has been that if the Amaro offered a minor league deal to a guy like Lyon that he would jump on it figuring he had a pretty decent chance to get called up again.

@KAS

To be fair the scout's quote on Asche was:

"I like this kid. He's a tough grinder who gets after it every day. He reminds me of Darin Erstad and Pete Orr, physically. I see him being an everyday third baseman."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Top_25_Phillies_Prospects.html

Cyclic - Just saw the Matt Gelb tweet.

Are you sure that surgery means he'll be out for 2013?

Oops. I thought you wrote 2014. Obviously surgery means he is out for 2013.

MG: Perhaps... but it's clear the Red Sox feel they have the same need if they're willing to sign two players. And the Red Sox are doing much better than the Phillies.

I'm just amused every time a guy gets picked up the reaction is, "Why didnt' we sign him!?!?!?" when none of us know if the Phillies tried. It's not like our front office avoids these minor league fliers.

Not to mention minor league fliers have a 95% failure rate. (I have no science to back that up.)

Didn't Horst have an elbow problem? Maybe TJ surgery?

Adams wanted to try to rehab I thought. I guess that route wasn't working out too well.

BAP, you forgot to note that Chooch, though he's been DL'd isn't one to pull himself from a game with an injury. He could lacerate a kidney in the 3rd inning and he'd still be in the game in the 9th. A 3rd catcher for this team is essentially meaningless.

That said, I don't even know if they realize that they have a "3rd catcher." It seems that they always like to have a player or two on the bench who don't really have a defensive identity, and are only kept around for PH purposes (call it the "Ross Gload role"). Nix and Kratz seem to be sharing that distinction right now.

At any rate, while I do agree with you, I remain steadfastly in support of any roster move/non-move that ensure one Michael Martinez continues to be kept well up Interstate 476.

Dickie Thong: Sure, but there isn't as much comedic value in the full quote (although I'd argue there's still plenty!!).

"How do we know Amaro didn't try? Maybe those players liked the idea of pitching for a first place team well above .500 instead of a 3rd place team mired in mediocrity."

We don't absolutely know, but I doubt this very seriously. The only first place team that Contreras and Lyon will be playing for in the immediate future is Pawtucket, which is in first place in IL's north division. If they were with the Phillies, they'd almost surely be pitching for the major league team.

What's wrong with Stutes?
-
Among other things, he can't get guys out.

Horst did have elbow tightness/stiffness.

TJ surgery here he comes!

It's not 100% past the window for RAJ to make a move like Boston. I believe Jon Rauch is still floating around, as is some guy named Chad Durbin

bap: Maybe Q is staying until Detroit so our man Kratz can DH.

I actually think I'd rather have Mini-Mart than Quintero. He can run & he's a late inning defensive upgrade over either of the Youngs. That makes him more valuable than Quintero, who does absolutely nothing of any use.

And I truly never thought I'd see the day when I would write the phrase, "I'd rather have Mini-Mart than --."

I'm hesitant to offer this up, but why not...

Perhaps Rube isn't as much a "buyer" as he's letting on, or he's still waiting to see how this road trip plays out before he makes a commitment to the concept of making a run. You only kick the tires on Contreras/Lyon (and as BAP alluded, would haven't almost absolutely been MLB deals) if you're in total "buy" mode. I'm still not convinced that's the case.

bay_area_phan: I think the reason they'll only be playing for Pawtucket is because, like most veteran minor league fliers mid-season, they'll fail.

Sure, no harm with taking a flier, but the Phillies have done and will continue to do it. There's plenty of reason to criticize this front office (why 3 catchers tonight?), but seems a little ridiculous to do so on the assumption we didn't make a play for a couple of veteran arms when we have no idea if they did.

BAP - Good point regarding Contrares & Lyon.

Maybe Amaro didn't sign 97 year old Jose Contrares because he doesn't want the average team age to go up by 10 years.

"I actually think I'd rather have Mini-Mart than Quintero"

You're dead to me.

If I was a phillie I would have a doctor outside the organization on speed dial.

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