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Saturday, July 13, 2013

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Repost:

@MG, Re: Doubleheaders

There's a site quoting the Elias Sports Bureau that only 26.2% of double headers are sweeps (and advocating a "chase" betting strategy where you quit after game 1 if you win and double down for game 2 if you lose).

2002 through 2012: There have been 272 MLB double-headers, and 148 sweeps. That's 54.4% and a pretty good sample size. That data is from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/doubleheaders/_/year/2012

I'd double-check my addition, but it goes to show that popular wisdom, internet betting advice, and hot women who hit on you in bars are all dangerous things to follow.

Go Ruf

Charlie's comments are exactly right.

"In both the bottom of the ninth and 10th, the Phillies had a runner on third with less than two outs before failed to score, and the White Sox eventually won in 11 innings, 5-4." - from the thread header.

Oh, by the way, the White Sox scored their winning runs after there was no one on and two outs. Pretty embarassing way to lose.

Anyone have a link to Cholly post-game? They cut the games off right after they end on MLBtv.

I made sure that I carved out from 3pm on to watch both games of this DH. Honestly, I don't even want to watch the second game after that crap. I love baseball, but this is just too much.

Count me among the group that had thrown in the towel, but deluded himself into thinking there was a glimmer of hope after the successful divisional series' wins. I was just excited to see good baseball again. The truth is this team isn't capable of playing it over more than a few game span. Just too many flaws.

I remember a time not long ago when Ruiz was butter in these situations...

rock - Here's what I heard of Charlie's on the post-game a bit ago:

"I don't like to tell you about how many chances we had. We had some golden chances. All we had to do was hit the ball. Couldn't do it. Game was sittin' right there for us - Two or three times, we needed a ball hit somewhere. Just hit it, you know? Make somebody, make an infielder move, or hit it, or hit it deep enough at an outfielder to score. We needed to make contact. Actually, I wasn't really worried about the .500, I was worried about winnin' the game. I was concentratin' more on winnin' the game. I thought - I mean, we had a good chance to win the game, but we didn't get it done. I mean really, it was sittin' right there for us."


comcastsportsnetphilly might put up the link, but probably not yet.

Thanks Brett. I hope he rips into them, especially the veterans. I love Chooch, but he was 0-5 with a passed ball, Dom 0-5, Rollins 1-5 with a really costly error.

That was a bizarre game but I always expect the veterans to find a way to do something to win those.

Haha...I have the Rockies/Dodgers on and there was a 3-0 count to Gonzalez for the Dodgers and the announcer said "3-0 count for Gonzalez, does _anyone_ swing on a 3-0 count anymore?"

...

What's there 2,000 people there? Yikes!

Broken right foot for Revere. Gillies get your bags packed. With that injury I'm hoping its foot and not tib or a fib fx.

Aw...Fvck. Broken right foot for Revere? That just ices this one.

"Ben Revere had X-rays following Game 1. He has a broken right foot. He will be evaluated by a specialist Monday."

Listening since game is blacked out out of market. Sounds like attendance at the park is comparable to attendance on this site.

They need someone who is butter in these situations...anyone?

Jeeeesus.

This sucks... at least it's Mayberry against a LH? Maybe he'll HR?

Oh man Revere out...

Can't wait to see Tyson Gillies up. Hope he gets the call. Been through alot deserves a chance. Ben could be out awhile.

son of a b!tch.

Phils just can't catch a break this year on the injury front can they.

It isn't Laynce Nix but their hottest hitter.

With no room on the 40 man makes your only two choices Gillies and Collier. Really hoping if its Gillies he actually plays.

Looks like it's up to the scrubs to pick this game up.

With how hot Revere has been this is just brutal.

Imagine Revere is out until after Labor Day depending upon the nature of the fracture.

Now you know why he didn't beat out the GDP to end the game.

I just got home from being at the first game so couldn't follow the BL thread. As was probably evident on TV, the crowd dwindled down to about 5,000 by the end. It was also interesting that for the entire game the crowd seemed mostly indifferent, or maybe a better word is resigned. In past years there would always seem to be an energy or underlying spirit, even during losing streaks. Not today. Except for the usual suspects on Bongo Cam, folks mostly just sat quietly.

So now this game isn't on MLB.tv. Eff that.

40 man options. 60 day Howard, or remove a RP so they have room or recall gillies....

Have to love a rain-delay double-header, leading to extra innings, in a game that never should have gone that far, resulting in our hottest hitter breaking a foot.

That game was just not going to die until it caused us pain.

Time to see what Gillies can do.

Revere got a broken foot? That's not helpful. Crap.

Did he break it on the foul ball, or trying to beat out a double play? Unreal.

Probably will be Galvis coming back up to replace Revere short-term at least.

Its NOT going to be Tyson Gillies, folks. Its either Galvis or Cesar Hernandez.

It's too bad they let Jermaine Mitchell go. He'd have been a much better call-up.

I don't see a return of a 2nd baseman, or our weak bat Galvis. A broken foot is at least a month off so this isn't short term.

Hernandez is playing CF tonight and he has been hot, so I am looking at him.

They aren't going to recall Tyson Gillies. I don't care if he's on the 40 man roster or not. He can barely play at the AAA level.

Galvis or Hernandez will be the callup. Galvis probably gets the nod because he has a little experience playing the OF. Ruf has played out there as well. Brown might be playing some CF too (with Ruf in LF) and Frandsen at 1B.

I forgot Cesar has played a bunch of games on CF. Just praying JMJ doesn't become the primary guy.

Has to be Cesar. Nothing else has to change. Except, you know, we lose our best hitter.

I'm expecting Mayberry in CF, for now.

One thing even more evident in person while viewing the entire field was the way Delmon Young shuffles when he moves. His stride is really short and he doesn't pick up his feet.

If Charlie thinks guys "are who they are," then what do we need a manager for? Anyone can walk the lineup card out. If players aren't following your instructions, there's two things to do:

1. Communicate to them that they damn sure better listen next time, and penalize them severely if they don't; or

2. Admit defeat and quit.

LA said they have 3 SBs in the last 16 games.

This lineup tonight is sad. At least there are fireworks after the game, doubt any during the game

Mini Mart can play CF, can't he?

I didn't have many things to criticize Charlie for in that last game. He put in Pettibone, used his good relievers early. He was managing that like an important game going into the 9th tied.

And the guys who let him down should know better. Chooch, Rollins, Dom. I was fine with Nix's AB. He was useless but he was a last option and he fouled off a couple. Frandsen was good as well. Even Quintero.

Gillies hitting much better since he came back to LHV. Hernandez in cf, made an error already.
Galvis needs AB's and should stay in LHV until Sept callup.

The White Sox lineup is much worse. Very "Marlins-esque" tonight.

Casper Wells is batting 5th. Enough said.

Thanks Denny b. was waiting for the 1st mini mart post. I was trying to forget he was still around. Please no more mini mart. What a solid of with dyak and mini mart. Get your tix now.

"I didn't have many things to criticize Charlie for in that last game."


Except for blowing his bullet off the bench (Utley) in the 7th inning in a tie game and a runner on 1B. And using up Mayberry's AB in the process.

Thusly, leaving Windmill Nix as basically the only PH available in the inevitable 9th inning spot in a close game.

Think using Nix in the 7th and saving Utley for, you know, when the game was actually on the line, would have been a skosh smarter. And that's not 2nd guessing either. That's what anyone with any sense would have done.

That's bad managing and it happens all the time.

@dennyb: Using up Mayberry's AB isn't much of a loss. He's in the bullpen, which hasn't exactly been spectacular this year, and there's no way he knows what the situation will be in the 9th and eventually 10th.

Say he throws Nix in, they score a run off our bullpen, and we don't have a chance to use Utley at all?

I thought Charlie usually got criticized for NOT using his best bat off the bench when there's a scoring opportunity.

Definite trap.

Really feels like we're about to get swept. Glad we can get it up for teams above .500 and utterly blow against a horrible (bottom 2?) AL team.

That was bad. I just heard an audible sigh of "ugh" or "oh" from LA.

Can someone work with Ruf on these relatively easy scoops? Start with this: the ball's not going to hurt you, Darin.

The next play I'm just speechless about.

Revere news has me bummed out.

Maybe r00b didn't sell his soul to the devil for the GM chair, just his team's fortunes for a decade.

Humberto says Ruf might be hitting well, but he needs to drink some more water.

Better luck out of this...

MLB.com brilliant scout...

"That was pitch number 45 for John Lannan; his effectiveness may start slipping, as he holds opposing hitters to a .253 average in the first 45 pitches but they hit .375 off him after that."

last game Lannan threw 8 scoreless MLB.com. Thx for the irrelevant stat.

I got the call on my way up to the big leagues...Obliged...

Nice work Cyclic. Have to keep this entertaining.

Lifeless listless. Lovely. They have no shot tonight, right?

They're absolutely going to win tonight. I have a theory that when we play bad teams we should always start Ruf, Quintero, McDonald, Mayberry - even work some roster moves to have Hernandez and Galvis available.

You see the logic is that if we always play down or up to our competition, those guys will play up to the competition instead of the starters playing down to them.

"You gotta get an out there. You have to." - LA

In play, no out... from the pitcher!?!?!

The irony of game one is someone could have driven in a run Revere would not have batted in the 11th. Thx Dyak. I am now convinced he is the curse.

People watching, what happened?

This is BS defense tonight.

wtf. 1st and 3rd no outs. "In play, no out(s)" HOW THE EFF???

UGH

Double play (out at home) and then they better get out of this... disgusting.

I thought the CWS offense was supposed to suck.

Cyclic - error on Lannan. He put his glove down, like a half-hearted swipe. Not sure if he wanted to let it get by him, thinking it was harder hit or something, but it wasn't, so there was no chance for MacDonald to get the out once he got it.

UGH

At least it's just one. Please let it be just one.

Undone by the W. Sox..Whoa!

@Cyclic: Remember Ruiz making those two great plays the other night to get the lead runner on short bunts?

Quintero tried the same thing, on a short bunt straight ahead of the plate, but the ball came out of his hand wrong and he threw it on the foul side of third base. That wrongfooted Young, but even if he'd made a clean catch he wouldn't have been to able to get around and make a tag.

So Humberto no es egal a Carlos.


And then in other "high level of play" moves, the next one was a bouncer up the middle, which Lannan hardly even attempted to catch, but the runner at third hadn't started to home, so the slow bouncer to second didn't score the run on third.

Then just now a sac fly.

Thanks, GBrett. Maybe I'm glad I can't see this crap.

Are the Phils now 3-10 in games to get back to .500? No matter how much of a homer you are, this number is why they need to sell. I'm not advocating a for-the-hell-of-it sale but if the situation is right, nobody is safe except for Hamels and Brown.

My other theory for when we play bad teams is that we should wear Reading jerseys.

Hahaha - did anyone else see that attempt at a slide into second on the DP?

He was twenty feet from the bag when he went into his slide.

I guess 1 is fine. But where is the effin' offense? Come on guys? How about some crooked numbers??

I thought the Phils game wasn't supposed to be televised. How did it end up on CSN?

Duck and cover baserunning. Really hilarious. I may yet salvage some entertainment out of this evening.

We were lucky to get out of that inning with just the 1 run.

Yes, some offense would be nice! (Defense, too.)

If Mayberry can't mash LHP, he's useless....

.259/.298/.463/.761

... before today. Useless.

If they had a "C'mon, Man" segment or whatever the Shaq one is for the NBA - that baserunning play is definitely making the cut.

As is Ruf on the throw-behind.

Santiago... 1 hitter through 5. WHAT???

That slide was hilarious, rock's right.

Santiago has them totally handcuffed, not even making any loud fly balls or line drives to speak of.

Any stats out there that indicate which club is getting screwed the worst on the injury front?

Not a good day so far. Hope they pick it up.

This Phils' team looks listless right now. A few years ago this would happen and the Phils would magically spring to life in the late innings and rally. Just don't see it tonight.

Missed the Revere news. Only saw it checking my fantasy team's stats.

That should do it for the season. And frankly, there aren't many reasons left to watch at this point.

@Iceman:

One reason is all you need. Green light, baby. Watch for the green light.

Plenty of reasons to watch...I got the call...

Ruf had a few pitches to hit there.

He does seem to have a really good eye. He went around on that last one, but he's no easy out. That's encouraging for the future.

Poor throw and Lannan needs to hustle over there. More shaky defense from the Phils.

Just been a lot of bad defense this year by this team.

Also, the game started with no-one in the stands but it looks like that was just a result of the quick turnaround - place looks pretty close to packed now.

Good thing the night game fans didn't see the first one.

As frustrating as this is to watch as a fan, the consolation is that this is giving the team a clear picture of what they have to do going forward. All we can hope is that Amaro recognizes it and is able to sell, in what amounts to more than simply a salary dump.

Papelbon has to go. Utley also, though he shouldn't be dumped for nothing. I'm not even sure what you could get for Ruiz and Rollins at this point. You'd only be selling on reputation and not their putrid production this year. Michael Young could probably net more. I would also call around to see the market for Kendrick.

A trade for Lee also needs to be explored, though I don't believe it's absolutely necessary. If you're able to net three prospects that would be in the top 5 of the system currently, I think you have to do it.

Revere is out, that's the nail in the season's coffin. Game, set, selloff.

If Utley gets sold, he better come back in the offseason.

I don't care about logic.

Brown's ball was one of the few hard hit balls this game. Damn 'No Doubles' defense.

Franske just said Mayberry was going to tie it and right after the sentence is finished Mayberry hits it out. Haha.

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