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Tuesday, July 23, 2013

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finger's post > hall's

What's going on here???

Feels like a win.

"...imagine what a successful trip to St. Louis ..."

Trying....to...imagine...can't...stretch...brain...too...far...can't....stretch...ugh...arggghh...stretch....imagine...ugh..."

*head explodes*

(*wife cleans off keyboard and screen*)

If Ruf doesn't hit a HR in this series, he's a bum.

This game opened at -175 and is now at -220 or -225 for the Cards.

It moved immediately and in a big way as soon as the line was posted. I guess other people have taken note too that this Phils' lineup gets dominated by power pitchers like Miller.

It's also a rookie pitcher in Pettibone who's been pitching above his head throwing on the road against the best offense in the league.

Not surprised the Cards are heavy favorites.

I can't stand the Cardinals. They are the Yankees of the NL.

Marcum given his outright release by the Mets.

If they could've signed a low-risk guy like Lannan instead of Marcum, their rotation would be pretty complete.

Similarity between the Cards/Yanks: Among other things, they don't do fire-sales.

Phis win the series if they win tonight and I even like their chances to win it regardless.

I just don't see how they score enough runs to have a good shot in this one especially with the likely ~6 IP out of Pettibone with at least 2 IP out of 'Cr@p to Pap' and possibly more.

This game feels like a loss.

It's hard to predict a series win against the team with MLB's best record, but I like how the Phillies matchup against the Cards. Should be a fun series.

Jake, Cards also let their super-star 1B walk over money and it was the right decision.

jbird - True, but I would argue that they let him walk because they didn't have the resources to resign him, not because they didn't want to.

Here's what the Cardinals do. They let their big hitting first baseman leave rather than giving him an outrageous contract for his down years.

Their former first baseman is going to the Hall of Fame. The Phillies' first baseman is going to Subway for a turkey sub, then visiting the hall of fame as a spectator if it is wheelchair accessible.

Btw - I am on Team "Jake Is Working To Increase Page Views By Being a Moron." If he isn't working for Comcast, he ought to be. Because if he's not, he's working on the most irritating case of secondary gain I've ever seen. And I've seen a lot.

They let him walk because they had Allen Craig.

I love how the Cards do business, but it starts and ends with their scouting and player development. They had a replacement ready for Pujols and weren't afraid to stick to that plan.*

*That, and Pujols turned down their mega-deal that would've been close to $200 million

They also have Matt Adams. Oh, and they have Matt Carpenter, who could give them plus production at three IF positions.

I can't believe they were even in on Pujols to be honest, looking at these guys they had waiting in the wings. Sentimentality?

aksmith - Again, the best team in NL & AL history, both don't do fire sales.

"True, but I would argue that they let him walk because they didn't have the resources to resign him, not because they didn't want to."

Let me wrap my head around this. You're holding the Cardinals up as a model of good management because they don't let their veteran players leave. But, when they did let a veteran superstar leave, and that superstar immediately went into serious decline, you're giving them credit, not for letting him leave, but for the fact that they wanted to re-sign him?

Iceman - There is no question they have a smarter FO than the Phillies, but the point is, they don't sell off veteran stars every time they have a bad 1st half. They draft well, they hire good coaches, and most importantly they don't give up on a season if their team is at .500 with 60 games to play.

haters gonna hate...

Is there a confirmed number that the Cardinals were willing to go to with Pujols? I remember he said he felt insulted, but I also feel that it was reported they were willing to go to like $180 million. I could be wrong though.

BAP - The Cardinals did try to resign Pujols, so claiming that they are smart for not resigning him is ridiculous -- they wanted to. I admire the Cardinals organization primarily because they don't buy into the boom-bust model.

The cardinals wanted Pujols desperately, and luckily failed to retain him.

And is there anything less exciting than the posting of the Phils' lineup each night? I want to get over my great dislike for the manager, but he keeps giving me reasons to dislike him.

If you're the manager and you think Delmon Young should bat 5th, how do you keep your job?

Phils will play up to the competition.

The Cardinals also haven't had a bad first half in a long, long time.

The last time (and only time in the last 12 years) they were under .500 on July 23 was in 2007, sitting at 45-50 and 8 games behind the Brewers. It is true they didn't sell--in fact, they bought, trading for Joel Piniero at the deadline. They got close to the division lead at one point, but fell apart in September.

Of course, they were also the defending World Champions, and losing that season got their GM fired. They replaced that GM with John Mozeliak, who has since been one of the best GMs in basebal,l obviously.

The Cards didn't offer him a deal that was anywhere competitive on a years or dollars basis compared to what the Angels offered.

Cards haven't sold veterans because they typically let them walk via FA, avoid long-term FA contracts generally, and work to keep their payroll at a pretty fixed level over the immmediate-to-longer.

There is a big difference between being an optimist and just posting dopey stuff. Kind of get the sense Jake is a regular here who is just having some yucks.

How is Cesar Hernandez doing in CF?
Dugan starting to adapt to AA. Biddle lite up,lasted less than an inning.

Pujols contract is the worst one in baseball right now and by a pretty wide margin. Signed through 2021 at an escalating salary that increase $1M with a base of $23M next year.

@ToddZolecki: The Phillies will be one of the teams watching Brian Wilson throw later this week. http://t.co/zncED88z2v

Do it.

MG - I think we've filled our daily quota for conspiracy theories regarding my identity. I'm just a regular Phillies fan who, surprisingly enough, wants the FO to pursue a strategy that allows them to compete every year -- including this year.

CL-Papelbon
SU-Brian Wilson**
SU-Bastardo
MR-John Axford**
MR-Diekman
MR-Garcia
LR-Valdez

How's that look?

I wasn't going to look it up, but when MG says something so authoritatively, he's usually making it up in his head. Sure enough, they offered him a 10 year deal rumored to be more than $200 million (a lot of it deferred).

"The Cardinals did try to resign Pujols, so claiming that they are smart for not resigning him is ridiculous -- they wanted to."

I didn't claim they were smart for not re-signing him. You claimed they were smart for TRYING to re-sign him -- which it is now 100% clear they were not. That is basically the same point people are making about the risks of keeping Cliff Lee. Even a player as great as Albert Pujols is in serious decline at 33. And Lee is 2 years older than that.

CS - I can't say Brian Wilson wouldn't improve the pen, however I'm still a bit traumatized by the mental image of him celebrating the 2010 NLCS victory on the CBP mound. But I suppose desperate times call for desperate measures.

Jesse Biddle's night: 0.2 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, 3 hits, and pulled for a reliever.

For a supposedly elite prospect, he sure has a lot of line scores like that.

So from all the reports I'm reading online he is reported to look near MLB ready. They also stated he is pitching at a level on par with his prior allstar quality. So this close to the trade deadline where this is $$ and not prospects what do you pay this guy?

1yr MLB deal for 5mil to start.

BAP - You didn't claim that, aksmith did -- and I didn't claim they were smart for trying to resign him. I merely debunked aksmith by reminding him that they tried.

BAP - There is also an enormous difference between signing Pujols for 10 years at age 31, and keeping Lee for 2 more years at age 33.

It's funny that even if the Cards had signed Pujols to a new contract, it would likely not have hurt them one bit. Which players integral to their success would have been skipped because of that contract? I can't think of one. Maybe Ty Wigginton. Once again proof that even good organizations do stupid things.

It is hard to move on from future hall of famers. I watching the Phils twist painfully in the wind with a washed up Steve Carlton. And the Cards surely felt much the same way. But in the end, their organization is strong enough they would have weathered it either way. After all, he is a true hall of famer. Not a Ryan Howard.

Jake there is a fine line between competing and mediocrity. The Cards compete every year. The phils are now mediocre for the last 2 yrs. I agree that a fire sale is an insult to the fan base and I don't trust the organization to make trades for the right prospects. An aging team with no prospects major league Is a formula for disaster. Play Ball!!

Biddle, age 21, will have his fifth start out of 20 this year where he's given up more than 3ER. 13 out of 20 have been 6 innings or more- and one of those was an abbreviated 2 inning outing where he didn't give up a run in two innings on 39 pitches.

Don't listen to BAP, is the moral of this story.

CS - In re: your "how's it look" bullpen

I think Exxon throws righty.

@Britt_Ghiroli: The Orioles have acquired Francisco Rodriguez for Nick Delmonico.

That sounds cheap...

Where's Zambrano in that parade of "hope and prayer on previously reliable arms" list of a bullpen? And he's already under contract with the team!

"@Britt_Ghiroli: The Orioles have acquired Francisco Rodriguez for Nick Delmonico.

That sounds cheap..."

I once got nicked while cutting a Delmonico, myself. Blood everywhere...

Iceman: Well, that leaves 5 starts out of 20 where he was terrible -- which is an awful lot. And he was pretty bad in some of those starts where he went 6 innings.

Look, he's clearly one of our two best prospects. He's 21, he's already at AA, he has very good stuff, and he has been more good than bad this year. But there are some red flags there.

Grilli on the 15 day DL. Melancon takes over closer role.

Wow.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 1m
The Phillies have played three more games than St. Louis. The Cardinals have scored 89 more runs as a team.

I like Lannan and have since they signed him. That said, this lineup is going to murder him.

Not sure where you can get odds on a sweep, but I'd put down about a gazillion dollars on it.

Delmonico is a 21-year old hitter in High-A ball. Sickels and BA rated him as the 4th-best prospect in the O's system coming into this year, while Law had him 6th. It should be noted that the Orioles system is not considered particularly deep.

Good hitter with patience and some moderate power, but lacks a position. He's tried 2nd and 3rd, but hasn't exactly stuck, and he may have to end up at 1B. His bat plays a lot better at second or third than it does at first.

"The Phillies will be one of the teams watching Brian Wilson throw later this week."


He and Pap would would make a nice duo of fake tough guys in the pen.

Also both are on the downside (it not completely done in Wilson's case) of their careers. The Phils are some of the best in baseball of going after players at the end of their careers.

Iceman - It was rumored to be only up to $200M and he got $254M from the Angels.

St Louis Dispatch also mentions it was up to 10 years but possibly less or the last year being an option.

Either way, Pujols signed with the Angels for the cash and that is why I bet if you polled people here in St Louis they would say they don't think of highly of him.

BAP- no one has ever compared the guy to a Cole Hamels type. But he's freaking 21 years old in his first year of AA. 15 out of 20 of 6IP+ and 13 out of 20 3ER or fewer is really quite good when you put things into perspective.

I understand that you feel you have to crap on 100% of the players in the organization, but can't you wait a few years on Biddle?

MG- agree with everything you said, but that is vastly different than saying 'They didn't make a competitive offer.' They did.

In the off-chance that we end up in buying mode, there would be no harm in looking at Brian Wilson. But he has 2 black marks against him. One is that he the world's biggest douchebag. I normally don't care about stuff like that, but Brian Wilson really pushes the envelope. The other black mark is that he has had 2 TJ surgeries. Other than Chris Capuano, has there ever been a pitcher who made a successful comeback after 2 TJ surgeries?

Shocking that they didn't score there. Who could have foreseen it?

SERIOUSLY, DOM???

Sorry, all caps suggests a level of outrage I can't really muster.

I'm actually not surprised.

Iceman - Say it was 9 yr and an option/$200M total but with some portion of that deferred vs 10 yr/$240M guaranteed and another $14M in deferred.

You are probably talking a difference of at least $55-60M in guaranteed cash between the two deals.

That's not really competitive.

We're going to get murdered, aren't we?

My dad called today and teased me about the game - for which HE bought tickets all on his own - Thursday. "Sure you want to go and watch your team get beat?"

Yeah. Should be fun. (Thurs.)

For some reason I don't think Pettibone's usual strategy of getting himself into jams and then getting himself out of them will work so well against these guys.

Cody Asche with his 11th homer, up to .291 at AAA. Why haven't we traded Michael Young yet?

This team has convinced me, and many others, that they are a very mediocre team. They would have to really show something in the Cards and Tigers series to warrant even thinking about adding to the team. When the strength of your team (starting pitching) flops against the Mets, you've got problems.

Uh oh...

Let's see what a true competitive team does with 2 on, 1 out and the cleanup hitter up...

If you let the pathetic Jon Jay get on base in this lineup, just forget about it. The game is over.

Best fantasy pick I ever made was drafting Carpenter with the second to last pick this year. He's been a top 5-10 player in baseball fantasy-wise.

Cards announcers just said that Alan Craig is hitting .489 with RISP. It's the highest average ever with RISP (according to the announcers).

Damn, too weakly hit.

Could have been worse...

I tried to take the Phillies +190 but ran out of time. Saved me from myself.

Sub-optimal... for the Cardinals

BAP, I think Jayson Werth had a .489 with RISP when he was here.

.489 OPS, that is.

Mini-Mart is in LF
Delmon never saw a first pitch he didn't like:

Cody Asche with his 11th homer, up to .291 at AAA. Why haven't we traded Michael Young yet?

Beause I doubt asche would be given the FT duties.

Typical from Pettibone and he survived giving up a big 1st inning.

His splits in the 1st/2nd inning are really poor but he settles in after that:

1st inning - .349/.423/.508 (.930 OPS)
2nd inning - .323/.371/.585 (.956 OPS)
3rd inning - .211/.286/.228 (.514 OPS)
4th inning - .185/.237/.259 (.497 OPS)

Basically has had trouble through the top half of the lineup the 1st time through, gets through the 2nd time just fine, and then starts to run out of gas/get hit the 3rd time through the lineup. Been that way pretty much every start.

Watching this team against a pitcher with a 95mph fastball is like watching one of those National Geographic documentaries where lions maul a gazelle and pick its bones clean, only they don't blur out the blood and gore.

Terrible matchup for Mayberry. It's a damn shame Revere got hurt because on nights like this against a power-throwing RHP starter Mayberry is a K waiting to happen.

Why am I not surprised that our RHB can't catch up to this guy and are sending everything to RF.

Watching Jonh Mayberry JR face RHP is like watching a child bat against randy johnson.

Man, Mayberry has settled into being Mayberry. Know what I mean? That just below .250 average sums up his middling career.

This is also a microcosm of the roster as currently constituted. With a rare exception, middling players the sum of whose parts make for a .500 team, just where they should be.

It's mind-bogglingly delusion that anyone could envision even with a tweak or two this sleepy team to make a run. It's just not going to happen. Blow it up, RAJ, starting but not ending at the first trade deadline. There is also August 31 with waiver deals.

With the season chugging along, the off-season should prove more exciting.

The Philies are trending toward a runless streak a la the Marlins. They have a ways to go, but anything is possible for this team as it wins 3 and loses 3.

Against RHP pitchers who don't throw hard or have certain pitches (splitters, changeup), it is a really poor matchup for Mayberry.

Meant to say against RHP pitchers who don't throw hard or rely upon a curve, Mayberry isn't that overmatched.

Just really struggles against RHP pitchers who throw hard or have certain types of pitches (splitter, changeup).

So, then to sum up the analysis on RFD, he can't hit power pitchers or junk ball pitchers as long as they are right-handed.

Works for me.

Cardinals' announcers say that the team's management relies on a lot of advanced metrics. Imagine that.

What's that, BAP? Advanced metrics? Huh?

main: It's just a bunch of mathematical mumbo-jumbo. I don't know why the Cardinals waste their time with it. What matters is production.

The only good thing for the Phils so far is that Miller is at 47 pitches already.

Cards have really protected him trying not to let him go over 100 pitches.

Hopefully Miller's done after 6 IP and this team is only 1-0 or 2-0 yet. Cards' middle relievers have been shaky of late.

my favorite part of the last thread was Jake posting Howard's RBI totals to prove he was an incredible player.

If we give up fewer than 4 runs in any of the next six games, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

I was being sarcastic, BAP about advanced metrics. I know the story with ownership and management about assessing prospects. They rely solely on the eyes of crafty scouts.

Look at how well the farm system has performed over the past few years.

They are too inbred. They need an outsider to come in and change the culture.

Fat chance.

Miller is pounding the strike zone. The scoreless innings are starting to add up.

dammit DOM. This team isn't watchable when you struggle.

Brown needs to stop chasing pitches out of the zone. He's lost his plate discipline.

Can the Phillies just kidnap the Cardinals player development staff and keep them for themselves?

Main: I was also being sarcastic.

There should be a designated fielder rule.

My lord, Young is terrible at 3rd.

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