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Tuesday, July 23, 2013

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This game played out almost exactly as you thought it would:

- Miller overpowers the Phils with little fear of pounding the strike zone tonight and even when the Phils make contact on his fastball was a lot of weaker stuff to RF

- Pettibone struggles a bit and only works 5 IP.

- 'Crap to Pap' gives up a run

- Phils score a run after Miller departs but aren't able to rally against the hard-throwing combo of Rosenthal/Mujica late.

Nix strikes out in his PH AB was the one I missed.

Like the moves that Duquette keeps making. Nothing give up a ton and he has quietly made two nice incremental pitching moves to give the O's a much needed boost (Feldman and KRod).

Duquette probably tinkers too much but he's the anti-Amaro and generally is able to boost his club's position during the course of the season by working to upgrade the roster.

MG, you said Span is having the worst year of his career offensively. Which is why I used those two seasons. It is NOT his worst, and quite frankly pretty predictable based on those two bad seasons.

Anyway, this will be a fun game. Not only seeing what Meyer does, but also what Bourn does over the life of his 4-year deal in contrast to what Span does for Washington. Rizzo certainly had the money for Bourn, but instead cheaped out and gave up a real nice prospect for the homeless version of Bourn.

If he was going to trade for a CF, willing to give up Meyer, he should have pursued Fowler, who would've been exactly what that offense needed.

Iceman - Fowler would have been a much better fit but the asking price on him was supposedly pretty ridiculous.

Sure Rizzo offered Meyer and maybe 1-2 lesser prospects to the Rockies for Fowler but got rejected. O'Down has a reputation of being ridiculous in what he asks for in return for trade.

Remember Amaro kicking the tires on Fowler this offseason too only to say the price was way too high.

Oh good, I knew we'd get a fellating of Duquette before the night was over. Two of MG's favorite guys (Duqe and KRod) united at last. Just a dream scenario.

Iceman - They also would have lost their 1st round pick to sign Bourn too.

Bourn's had an 'okay' year in Cleveland but not great either and paying him close to what Upton got over even the same on a 4-year deal would have been a real overpay.

The one thing I was glad this year that Amaro didn't do in CF was supposedly offer more than 3 years to either Upton or Bourn.

Villar goes 3-4 and scores (a ridiculous) game-winning run for the Astros.

Amazingly, he hasn't made an error yet at SS. Didnt think that was possible.

Yeah I like Duquette and I wish he was the GM here in a heartbeat over Amaro. Everywhere he has gone he has built a competent and successful development and scouting system and has a pretty strong track record of being able to upgrading rosters during the season.

So much for playing up to the competition.
Phils looked and were overmatched in all aspects of the game.

Give 'em hell tomorrow but tonight was depressing.


This doesn't look like a team which is making a playoff run to me. I don't think we'll be posting years from now comments like 'that 2013 team had real character' or things such as that.

I don't think the FO will, but I think they should sell anyone over 30 they can get value for not named Utley. He's the one player on this team I don't ever want to see in another uniform. Yes, he's a sentimental favorite and there's nothing wrong with that.

Not a fun team to watch right now. Had slim, very slim, hopes that they might play up to the competition as they have at times in the past. Right now, they look like a dead team walking. If this keeps up, I'll soon be joining the blow-it-up, angry-village mob.

Has the makings of another 5 game losing streak following the achievement of a winning record. Although this time it could be worse. We could easily get swept by the Cards and Tigers. Sorry to be all "doom and gloom" but that's what these guys are showing right now. That happens, I don't see how Rube doesn't sell off some pieces. It's depressing.

Getting closer to that 7-31-2013 deadline.................

I can see the Braves playing less than 500 baseball the rest of the way and the Phils still not winning the division.
It's not hard to at least trade the underachievers on the team Mayberry, Nix, D Young and Stutes for a start.

As Jim Cramer (Phils fan from Wyndmoor, PA) would say: Sell, Sell, Sell

Have to say - the Cards are in an entirely different league than the Phils.

Bob, how is Mayberry an underachiever? He's exactly what we all thought he was, a 4th OF. Besides what are you going to get for any one of the guys you want to trade? Greg Golson, maybe? :)

Watching Young flail at those two doubles down the line makes me sad, remembering the very recent past when the Phils had good to excellent defenses.

Last night's game was like pistol whipping a blind kid.

Young was sad.

Sadder, to me, was hearing Manuel marvel after the game at the patience Cardinals' hitters showed. Like it's magic or something. He's been a complete and utter failure inculcating the same ethic on his team (though I don't doubt he's not necessarily encouraged to do so by the FO), but all he can do is praise them.

The Phils' young pitcher pitched very well yesterday. Their ridiculously weak fielding and approach at the plate let them down. They're allergic to deep counts.

It took years to see Mini was a MLer,how long will it take to realize the same about Yak.Drive in 1,give up 2 on D.

Last night's game was like pistol whipping a blind kid.

Posted by: NEPP
*********
It wasn't quite that bad. It turned on a few plays: Young's missed grounders, Brown's poor fielding and poor ABs with RISP, and Mayberry and Ruf coming up small against a hittable closer.

The pitching was fine.

Too be fair, Cards are the best team in the NL and Shelby Miller actually is one of the best young pitchers in baseball (not an ironic moniker this time). Roles were reversed a few years ago and the juggernaut Phillies were upended in the playoffs by lesser squads. There is plenty to be disappointed with regarding the Phillies, plenty of reasons to think the team should start re-loading for next year, this game is not one of them.

bittel, I hear you about Charlie's inability to get the team to have good ABs, but I don't think the ghost of Ted Williams could get any better ABs from some of these guys.

What is Charlie supposed to do about getting them to have better at bats?

The team as constructed are comprised of guys that don't work counts, and don't take a lot of pitches. Getting mad at Charlie because he can't shake them of their stupid habits is silly. Guys need to look in the mirror and take some accountability.

I think the ghost of Ted Williams could at least have better ABs than some of these guys.

Shouldn't it be the frozen head of Ted Williams?

Amazing the amount of blame Mayberry gets on this site.

Dom Brown's July numbers are starting to move back towards his April numbers.

Brown is definitely slumping badly.

Maybe give him a day off to clear his head but that would mean starting Laynce Nix most likely as I dont see UC putting Ruf in LF.

How about this name for CF - Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He seems to be lost on the Mets roster and probably could be had for a reasonable price.

Whoa. I didn't notice until just now that the Mets placed Shawn Marcum on release waivers.

Mayberry is a great 4th outfielder! He's cheap, a bench bat with a heavy split, can start in a pinch, play center in an emergency, occasionally goes on long and impressive hot streaks. He has a 100 ops+ overall and a it's not his fault Revere got hurt and the team didn't keep Schierholtz to play against righties. Lots of teams have starting outfielders with worse numbers. Jon Jay of the Cards has a 87 ops+, our next opponent Detroit runs Andy Dirks and his 79 ops+ out there. Mayberry is a real asset to this team.

"Guys need to look in the mirror and take some accountability."

Yeah, and maybe the GM needs to take some accountability when he signed a group of guys who have never shown the ability to work counts or take walks? And then says things like "I don't care about walks?"

Whoa. I didn't notice until just now that the Mets placed Shawn Marcum on release waivers.

Posted by: RedBurb | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 09:44 AM

The Phillies easily won the "Best 5th Starter Signing in the NL East" competition this year:

Nats: Dan Haren
Mets: Sean Marcum
Phils: John "All You Need Is Love" Lannan

Can't believe I used the wrong version of shaun in that post...oh well.

Mayberry is what he is...a good 4th OF. Expecting more than that is unfair to him.

I'm glad the moving finger has pointed at Craig and Carpenter. They are the kind of prospects the Phillies almost never draft.

Both were college players who showed excellent offensive skills, but lack tools, mostly related to speed and defense.

Neither cost much. Craig was an 8th rounder and Carpenter a 13th and neither was paid over slot.

Cardinals scouts concluded that excellent plate judgment and pitch recognition skills combined with a moderate power tool offset the questions about their defense.

They also knew that defense is much more easily taught than OB skills, for example.

Wish the Phils would consider things like that.

Phillies have good role players like 5th starter, 4th outfielder, etc. Maybe the best 3rd catcher in baseball (does anyone else carry 3 catchers?). Roster management is a little wonky. The problem with the team is the stars. Ruiz & Adams have been disappointments and only 1/3 of the HHU trio is producing, and even Utley missed time. If Howard & Halladay were playing even at 80% of their peak and Ruiz & Adams were playing as well as expected, this would be a very different team. Mayberry, Lannan, Pettibone, Kratz: these are not guys who are going to throw the team on their backs and carry them. They are role players playing their roles fairly well.

Can we leave jimmy here in St. Louis? And start the selling? Myoung chooch and chase. Lets make a deal.......

jbird: The Phillies also have a pretty good stack of potential 4th and 5th starters on their top prospect list.

Is Laynce Nix still alive? I heard he was dead.

Nix is alive and healthy. His ability to hit a fastball isn't though.

We'll leave Jimmy and somehow kidnap Matt Adams...they don't even start him anyway so it's not as if he'll be missed.


***The Phillies also have a pretty good stack of potential 4th and 5th starters on their top prospect list.***

It's good to have that type of organizational depth....snerk.

Why isn't Ethan Martin a reliever yet? That would be a huge move to try and help the bullpen. He's got the stuff to do it (2 good pitches) and his command/lack of a 3rd pitch have condemned him to be a 5/6 starter at this point. Just make it happen.

Also, down on the farm, Asche, Franco and Dugan all had good nights. Asche and Dugan especially have been heating up quite a bit of late and Franco is slumping a bit but is still hitting well over .300 despite not much power of late in AA.

Is Laynce Nix still alive? I heard he was dead.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Just his career is dead.


Did anyone mention that Schierholtz won't be a FA until 2015 and is posting a 125 OPS+ this year?

Phillies 5th starters, here now or here within 2 years: Kendrick, Pettitbon, Lannan, Cloyd, Morgan, Martin & Wright.

It's an embarrassment of riches. The Phils top prospect, Biddle, projects as a #3.

MG: Since he doesn't play, how can you tell? Is he missing them in batting practice?

clout - You can't except from the limited PH ABs he gets and the overall stats which have been trending in the wrong way every year now.

Quick clarification:

Does anyone think that trading away Jonathan Villar for Roy Oswalt was a bad idea?

lorecore: no, not a bad deal at all. Though if we hadn't traded away Lee, we wouldn't have needed Oswalt.

NEPP: I'm the blog's biggest skeptic on Asche, but I think Dugan is the real deal. His SLG is up for 3rd season in a row and he's got a better BB rate than Asche, although it still needs to be higher. Scouts say Dugan takes instruction well, which helps.

tti: Remember that one time Charlie coached them to lay off pitches for 5 innings? It was against Jason Marquis.

Thats proof that Charlie can coach them to be patient!

MG: By 'every year" you mean from 2010 to 2011, I assume, since he hasn't had enough ABs the past 2 seasons to show anything.

Lorecore: it will be interesting to see this next year and a half how the Phillies' former farm hands perform. One of the great defenses of Amaro has been that no one he traded away amounted to anything. Well, Cosart & Villar are in the majors now and Singleton is in AAA (struggling a bit there). D'Arnaud can't stay healthy.

I view the Villar-Oswalt swap like I see the Bourn-Lidge swap. worth it at the time.

According to an AL executive as reported on MLBTR, Papelbon's contract makes him virtually untradeable. Thanks, Rube. You are a boob.

"I didn't notice until just now that the Mets placed Shawn Marcum on release waivers."

He's out for the season & he signed a one-year contract so the move doesn't really have any practical ramifications. They probably just needed his spot on the 40-man roster.

lorecore: "Does anyone think that trading away Jonathan Villar for Roy Oswalt was a bad idea?"

Not yet.

Bert: It's the winner's curse. By definition if you win an auction, you've paid more than anyone else was willing to pay.

Or could afford to pay.

Bert: baseball players in their 30's rarely appreciate in value like a Picasso or a Lake Como Villa.

If you believe MLBTR, the Cardinals offered Carlos Martinez (one of the best prospects in baseball) for Alexei Ramirez -- a 31-year old shortstop with a .660 OPS (signed through 2016). If there's even a sliver of truth to that, how could the WhiteSox turn it down? But the mere possibility that it is true should send RAJ scurrying down to John Mozeliak's office to see what he'll give us for Rollins.

If that's accurate, Rollins should net us Oscar Taveras...


That's more sarcasm by me about the Cards actually making that offer rather than what I'd think Rollins is worth.

***
I view the Villar-Oswalt swap like I see the Bourn-Lidge swap. worth it at the time.

Posted by: jbird | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:35 AM
***

Pretty much...totally different than the Pence trade. Oswalt was a big reason as to why we won the East that year whereas Pence was just gratuitous.

NEPP: I'm the blog's biggest skeptic on Asche, but I think Dugan is the real deal. His SLG is up for 3rd season in a row and he's got a better BB rate than Asche, although it still needs to be higher. Scouts say Dugan takes instruction well, which helps.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:32 AM

Dugan's a natural hitter and has been mashing ever since they stopped the switchhitting experiment. I really like him. Asche strikes me as a 2nd division starter or possible stopgap guy but nothing more than that.

The winners curse can easily be avoided by taking on salary of a player to make them more valuable. Phils would be (even bigger) fools not to do so.

clout: well obviously the future can change how to evaluate a trade, but all the information available at the time pointed to the Oswalt trade being the right move to make. It will sting if Gose/Villar/Happ end up being all stars, but it doesn't change the fact that it was a good move to make at the time.

lorecore: Agreed.

by the way, that Villar run was one of their weird ways to win a game. Score from 2B on a errant pick off throw at the runner on 1B.

Since Dugan gave up hitting RH:

2012 (Age 21): .857 OPS in A Ball
2013 (Age 22): .889 OPS in A+ ball & AA ball

And as clout noted, he's got a good walk rate and he doesn't strike out a ton. He's also finally age appropriate for his league and is still hitting well...especially of late. It'll be interesting to see how he does in AAA next year as he could be one of those 2nd half call-ups in 2014 that helps the club.

@MF: Enjoy the game tonight. It was sweltering when I attended the game against the Rangers last month, but there are cooling beverages all around. Guess which make of beer.

In the last thread, someone said, in essence, that he is a season ticket holder, but is fine with the Phillies retooling even if it means another lean season or two.

I agree completely. Here's the deal: players come and go. Some retire; others are traded or released.

But, the fans remain in place and root for the Philadelphia Phillies year after year. That is the essence of being a fan. I'm a fan of the team. I have loved Utley, the younger Howard, Chooch, etc., but they are not fixtures any more than Mike Schmidt was.

In time, they too will retire, get traded or released. Sooooo, what does it matter if they are gone sooner than later? If any of them, including Lee, can fetch young, upcoming talent, now is the time to make the moves to do so.

Dugan last 10 at AA: .359/.418/.538 in 43 PA.

Recently added to http://www.80grade.com/team.php?tID=PHI

lorecore: if I remember right, there was some bellyaching about Villar being included in that deal here.

There was, jbird...Villar was seen as the one guy in that trade that might end up being a very good player but with a much higher fail probability. Everyone was pretty okay giving up Happ and Gose (he was seen as good too but it was okay to trade 1 good prospect for Oswalt).

fyi: dugan and franco two hits off snydergaard last night. They both took him deep in A+ ball too.

Agreed mainrob, there is nothing to be won from being sentimental or having emotional attachments to guys. Utley is really starting to play well and his value is increasing. I don't care about having him as a Phillie for life. I love the guy but he's not going to make this team better for the future. The guys he might net could.

"by the way, that Villar run was one of their weird ways to win a game. Score from 2B on a errant pick off throw at the runner on 1B."

I was watching the game as it happened & it was even weirder than that. It was a pitch that got away from the catcher, but not enough for the runner on 2nd to advance. But even though the runner in front of him wasn't moving, the guy on 1st decided to go anyhow -- so the pitcher threw to 1st to get him in a rundown. Except he threw the ball away & the guy on 2nd came all the way around to score.

All this after a closer who hadn't blown a save since April, 2012, gave up a game-tying home two-run homer against the worst team in baseball.

Would be pretty awesome in 2018 when Snydergaard has a 2.50 career ERA, but can never seem to beat the Phils because Franco and Dugan have his number.

clout - You mentioned college players who had offensive tools but lacked speed and defense. Would you classify some of the recent Phillies draft picks like Perkins, Serritella, Andrew Knapp, in that mold? I think they all were drafted higher than Adams and Craig, but could it be a slight shift in philosophy?

Joe D - What do you expect back in an Utley trade? Top 50 prospect? Top 100 prospect?

"And as clout noted, he's got a good walk rate and he doesn't strike out a ton."

RAJ likes Dugan too but he is very concerned about that high walk rate. That's going to have to come way down if he ever expects to get a call-up.

"Nix is alive and healthy. His ability to hit a fastball isn't though."


Or a changeup (which he waved and missed at last night) or a curveball or a slider or basically anything thrown by any sort of pitcher.

bap: i love the astros. They are 3-1 this year when they are +275 or higher, for +$790 profit.

I honestly have no clue what the market is for Utley and I don't think anyone here does either. I'd be fine with them making him a qualifying offer in the offseason too. Basically I'd be fine with anything that keeps him off the books for the next 3 years.

It's amazing how Nix is still on this team. He is entering Martinez-level awfulness.

I guess I'm in the minority but I would totally take Utley on a 3 year deal. He's on pace for a 5+ WAR season and the replacements, both internal and external, are nowhere as good.

Obviously, you have to gauge Utley's willingness to resign on a team friendly deal (or one that at least has huge game played incentives to protect us from another major injury). If he's amenable, you look to lock him up for 2-3 years. If not, you have to consider moving him for a good prospect. Considering he's still one of the best 2B in the game, you should get a very good piece in return even for 2 months. He's a proven winner, is a huge competitor and is one of those "missing veteran pieces" that most teams making a WS run would kill to have.

The Dodgers, Athletics and Orioles all come to mind as playoff or playoff hopeful clubs that could seriously use an upgrade at 2B. He'd be an upgrade for the Pirates too even with Neil Walker under team control for the next couple years.

And that's not me just being nostalgic. Utley isn't the player he once was, but he is still a top 2nd baseman in this game.

Omg, is that Martinez-for-Ramirez rumor true??!

Hang a Cardinals uniform in Jimmy's locker tonight and do not give the GM a moment to reconsider. Forge his signature waiving his 10/5 rights. Amaro has to be all over this.

I heard on ESPN this morning that the Yankees are "working with" MLB on the appropriate punishment for A-Rod. Yeah, no conflict of interest there at all. I'm sure the Yankees are doing everything they can to prevent a lifetime ban.

Red, I just feel like a deal for Utley could hamstring them in filling other needs.

It's amazing how Nix is still on this team. He is entering Martinez-level awfulness.

Posted by: Joe D | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 11:12 AM

Considering our GM has publicly stated that he's carrying Humberto Quintero over another OF because we don't have any OFs in the minors, clearly the bar is very low for staying on the roster as an OF.

And Rube is an idiot.

I don't think you trade Utley unless you're getting 2 nearly mlb ready prospects who project as above average. I don't know if Joc Pederson & Zach Lee would be enticing enough or not. Otherwise, just keep him and make the qualifying offer/3 year deal. Definitely do not trade him for iffy guys and cost savings like the Pence and Victorino deals.

I heard on ESPN this morning that the Yankees are "working with" MLB on the appropriate punishment for A-Rod. Yeah, no conflict of interest there at all. I'm sure the Yankees are doing everything they can to prevent a lifetime ban.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 11:18 AM

I'm sure the Yanks would be devastated if they had to not pay Arod's contract....just devastated.

I think Utley is worth the Dodgers top prospect, whether its Zac Lee or Joc Pederson.

I actually like their young SS Seager better than Pederson in terms of upside, but he's much further away so I'd go Pederson in a trade.

If they offered Seager and throw in one their fireball relievers like Winthrow or Dominguez maybe thats a better deal.

Be interesting to see how Lehigh does against PJ Walters tonight in Rochester.

We had to "Tip Our Caps" to Walters back in June when he befuddled the Phils for 7 1/3 innings of 1 ER baseball. Hopefully Asche, Hernandez, Galvis and company do a little better tonight.

I think Westbrook is a good matchup for the big leaguers tonight. Especially for a few of the RH hitters in the lineup. Unfortunately, I think Lannen is pretty bad matchup for the Cards. Better then it would be if he was facing Detroit (which he isn't). But still could be a tough night for the crafty lefty.

If RAJ were really smart, he would have offered the Biogenesis guy $5M to say that Ryan Howard was one of his customers.

nepp: i guess you are right that the phils should ask Utley about an extension before trading - but i personally don't think its worth the risk.

If he goes on to be great, then oh well, its a lot easier to swallow than signing him to a new deal and hardly ever stepping onto the field during it.

per bWAR and fWAR, Utley has been more valuable per game than every other 2B in baseball not named Matt Carpenter. So basically, he's the #2 2B in the Majors right now.

Joe - But if you have a 3-5 win 2B, that's one less need for the next 3 years. Obviously I'm being optimistic but this bounceback year from him is a good thing, not a bad thing.

If he really is over his knee issues thanks to his new training regimen...maybe he is worth a 3 year deal.

Maybe.

I do understand the injury concerns with Utley though, it's just not strong enough for me to go "Well let's trade him to see what we can get."

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