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Wednesday, July 10, 2013

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I'm in Japan so couldn't see the game. Nothing to add while on lunch break other than to ask if Ruf's homer was a bomb or not?

Opposite field, maybe 5 rows deep.

Tomorrow is a must win game.

Thanks, Jordan. I can't help rooting for the guy, even though my brain knows that he will be at best a role player for a few years.

Cody Asche- 5 for 5, HR and 4 RBI'S. Now at .290 for the season with 9 dingers and 9 SB's.

Ethan Martin wins his 10th game.

Uber-Prospect Mike Martinez with a couple more knocks to get his season average to a "Tony Gwynn-esque" .320

Aumont threw a scoreless 9th, but threw more balls then strikes.

They lost a game. It means nothing til we see what happens tomorrow.

Didn't figure on them winning all four. Hope KK comes through on Thursday to make it 3 of 4.

"Uber-Prospect Michael Martinez with a couple more outs to get his season average to a "Mendoza-esque" .220"

Fixed that for ya!

Mini-Mart would be a dangerous weapon against the phillies bullpen. Clearly this is why ruben is holding onto him.

Hey the genius who got nailed with Anthony's homer congrats. You are on a lot of national websites!

Glad to see Ruf go deep, a CBP special, but still an opposite field shot that is typically a sign of good power.

For anyone who doubts defensive value, take a look at the 9th inning double to RF. A lofty flare towards the gap that had a solid 3-4 sec hang time no more than 20 or so feet from where elmn was standing. Not only did he not make the play but he didn't even get close enough to attempt it...just waddled his ass to the wall before it even landed

.just waddled his ass to the wall before it even landed
Sorry , Rube turned the game off before that,missed it.
Are Yak and Mini related?

LAD now ahead of Phillies in WC

Lee throwing hittable pitches 0-2. That may be the only flaw in his game. Too bad. BTW, that rookie for the Nats two nights ago was doing exactly the same thing. Refused to bounce two strike pitches in the dirt, even though the hitters had looked foolish on those pitches with one strike. Hard to believe that happens so often in the major leagues.

And today we find out if KK is over his concussion. Should be interesting.

"For the most part, the .500 mark has eluded the Phils. This season, they’re 3-9 in games that they’ve had the opportunity to reach the .500 plateau." - Jordan Hall

- and that's why I woke up with a headache this morning.

A loss like last night really hurts and puts things in perspective on this season to date. You think you are going to get a win and a masterpiece because they have Lee on the mound but it doesn't work out. You can't win many games with just 1 run but still.

I'm with aksmith on the KK/concussion watch. For a MLB pitcher to suffer a concussion and remain in the game for another inning until he complains of headaches in the year 2013 just spits in the face of the last decade of medical research.

I have no idea if he should or shouldn't have made his next scheduled start, but the fact that his concussion was grossly neglected the first time around doesn't lead me to believe that the Phillies have any more idea than I.

The Phillies are having a banner year in the injury department.

Kendrick gave up more hits(12) in post-concussion start than any start in his MLB career.

It's like Larry Bowa became the team doctor.

Apparently KK didn't rub enough dirt on it or walk it off enough before his last start. Hopefully he won't be a sissy tonight and let a stoopit brain injury stop him from pitching like a winner. This is baseball, not chess.

Probably already been covered but Cosart throwing tomorrow against the Rays.

50 BB in 93 IP for Cosart in the minors? Yeah that's not going to bode well at the big league level. Still can't harness all that gas it seams.

Cliff Lee keeps tying my shoelaces together in the dugout. That's why I run like I do. He needs to be stopped.

Nolan Ryan through age 32 had a BB/9 of 5.5, Randy Johnson through age 28 had a BB/9 of 5.7. So all Cosart has to do is be one of the greatest strikeout pitchers of all time and that BB rate is plenty sustainable.

Walks are obviously a problem, but his run prevention numbers in the PCL are pretty impressive.

Yasiel Puig 1st 53 MLB PA:
.471/.491/.745/1.236, 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 10 RBI

Darin Ruf 1st 53 MLB PA:
.348/.396/.717/1.114, 3 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 12 RBI

And Ruf didn't have about 6 of those hits bounce in and out of Michael Young's glove.

hahahaha, lore, that genuinely made me laugh

Ruf still needs work on being an everyday LF though. No use for him here.

Ethan Martin doesn't remotely get the hype that Cody Asche does here, but he's got more upside.

lorecore: No comment on Revere's defense last night?

Jeff Francoeur's first 55 PAs:
.389/.400/.833/1.233, 6 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 16 RBI

So much for hot starts.

Cyclic: Would you say Ruf = Puig? or is Ruf better?

Clout: "Ethan Martin doesn't remotely get the hype that Cody Asche does here, but he's got more upside."

I agree with you, but I'm surprised you brought this up. Martin is the prototypical prospect you've hated for years--live arm, great stuff with high velocity fastball, shaky command and control.

You've always made comments like "The minors are filled with guys like that--2% of them ever make it." I mean, Martin's career line in the minors is like a slightly lesser version of Trevor May, who you derided for years.

What gives with Martin?

Clout: lots of guys have more upside than Asche. But the Asche "hype" is based on actual numbers and proximity and not just potential. I doubt anyone here expects Asche to be a star. If you like Martin, that's fine. Just say you like Martin and why. No need to disparage everyone else for some made-up slight. This is why people think you are a troll. You can't say anything without trying to make someone else look bad.

Here's a bold, way out on a limb prediction:

Darin Ruf has a better slash line the rest of the season than Puig.

He's not a better prospect or player, obviously. But he will hit better for the rest of this season (AVG/OBP/SLG).

I am glad he was assertive in his loss. Cliff should never get nibbled to death.

Based on just watching the games, I would say that Darin Ruf can absolutely hit MLB LHP on a regular basis.

I would also say that RHP pitchers who can throw the slider will have no trouble with him at all.

Obviously, we need to see lots more of him, but that's the initial observation.

Jack: I love guys with live arms and 95 mph fastballs. Where you and I differ is you think that anyone who lacks those attributes can't possibly have an MLB career (i.e. Kyle Kendrick).

jbird: WTF are you talking about? Stating a fact is "disparaging"?
Yeesh.

Jack: If they only use him against LHP, I agree with you.

clout-- my post was tongue-in-cheek, based on a poster before stating something like "Ruf could be our Puig" (forgive me if I'm paraphrasing wrong, but I don't think that poster meant Ruf would be literally as good offensively, just more of an injection of young energy to jumpstart the team)

Jack-- Quite bold. But I could easily see it happening. Ruf can flat out hit.

Puig is going to hit like .150 for the next month. He hacks at everything and pitchers are realizing it. They will not throw him a strike for weeks. If he doesn't adjust, he's not going to hit much at all.

Cyclic: too late, "Beerleaguer told me Ruf is better than Puig" is going to be the new "Beerleaguer told me Bastardo is the next Johan Santana".

Here's what I would do with Martin (although the Phillies won't). I'd call him up and put him in middle relief. The Dodgers frequently do that with their SP prospects, the Phils never do. But it allows them to get a taste in non-pressure situations. Martin throws 96-98 and has a good curveball. Doubt he'd be any worse that Diekman, DeFratus, Stutes etc. nand he'd certainly be better than Luis Garcia.

Hope Howard is on DL rest of year. Lets see what ruf has got on a larger scale. This park plays so well. He can yank the ball, and go oppo

I believe we're due to face 3 LHP in the next 4 games. Here's to Ruf's continued success.

clout: "lorecore: No comment on Revere's defense last night?"

I did not catch majority of the game. What did he do?

***Here's what I would do with Martin (although the Phillies won't). I'd call him up and put him in middle relief.***

This, one million times THIS.

Instead, the Phillies will waste time with him as a starter with mediocre control sitting in the minors.

Its very annoying.

I know you want him to be a starter still but he'd probably be a good Ryan Madson type of reliever with that curve instead of a changeup as his out pitch.

"Here's what I would do with Martin (although the Phillies won't). I'd call him up and put him in middle relief."

Completely agree. His control is bad but, judging by his walk ratios, it's still better than Diekman & Aumont's. And, frankly, I think the bullpen is where Martin is likely to end up -- if he ends up sticking in the majors at all.

Imagine how his fastball dials up in 1 inning appearances...

July 11, 2013...the day clout, bap and NEPP all completely agreed on a prospect.


Mark it down.

I would love to see Martin in the bullpen.

clout, how dare you besmirch the name of bap's favorite reliever!?

cyclic: one of those lefties if Chris Sale, so don't get too excited.

Speaking of Chris Sale, who is obviously an extreme, but makes a case for clout and others suggestion of moving Ethan Martin to the bullpen. For a team with an awful bullpen, its almost an immediate chance at an upgrade, and doesn't eliminate the chance to convert down the road if desired, a la Sale and Kris Medlin.

Cyclic: Exactly!

Ethan Martin in the pen? Okay. But let's not have a million complaints about his command and control if it happens (it won't.)

Yes, it would be nice to have a guy who could likely hit 100 in short stints. And yes, it would be nice if the Phils would take a page from the Card's playbook and actually start their pitching prospects out as relievers in the majors at time. But this is Philly, and everyone is either an immediate hero or a bust. It's not St. Louis, where nobody questions the front office every five seconds in the loudest voice possible.

We may complain because of Philly's reputation as a tough town. But it is a tough town for young players.

There have been teams that initially gave their future starters bullpen roles. I believe that Earl Weaver did that, and he had some fine pitchers. Martin's starting in the bullpen does not preclude his becoming a starter later on.

Speaking of the Cardinals, they are currently hitting .338 w/RISP. Next on the list is Tampa Bay at .289. Phils are middle of the pack at .251.

Adam Wainwright comes to mind...

While .338 is unsustainable, the Cards do lead the league in BA overall, so its not like they'll come crashing down anytime soon.

Alexi Ogando is a good example too.

Reaching back a bit, but Kenny Rogers, David Wells, and Jimmy Key as well.

If memory serves, the Phillies actually started off well in that category before painfully crashing back down to average. Helped again last night by a seemingly all-too-common 0-fer.

Ha, or how about the reliever that the Phillies released back in 1986. Some dude named Dave Stewart.

"Adam Wainwright comes to mind..."

David Price, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, Chris Sale, C.J. Wilson, Justin Masterson. It's really pretty common. It's not like it's some radical idea, even if it's too radical for the Phillies.

Putting Martin in pen. Would be like rube actually using SABR to evaluate talent. And seeing what production it leads to.

Has anybody seen Manny Machado's third-base play? Jim Palmer says that he makes plays that Brooks Robinson couldn't. Another has said that he's never seen a better 3B glove. Not bad for the rookie Mr. Doubles.

somewhat related to our young reliever talk, fangraphs looked at the top 10 under 30yrold relievers in WAR just 3 years ago:

Marmol
Brian Wilson
Hong Chih Kuo
Neftali Feliz
Sean Marshall
Joakim Soria
John Axford
Daniel Bard
Jonny Venters
Juan Ovideo aka Leo Nunez

Reliever volatility is ridiculous. Throw guys like Martin into the pen and see what happens, there are no guarantees of anything.

Machado is incredibly good at baseball, offense and defense.

He's an elite defensive 3B, who was considered good enough as a SS in the minors to be able to stick there in the majors. He could slide over to SS tomorrow and be league-average. Hardy is good enough at SS that they don't need him there now, but he could slide over there in 2015 when Hardy leaves. At that point, they may just keep him at 3rd though.

I have a hard time believing the O's will slide Machado over to short after 3 years at 3rd. But they may need 3rd for Schoop at that point (if he develops, and can't play 2nd).

Hunter Pence: .264/.307/.452
Delmon Young: .272/.327/.426

Although Pence's OPS+ comes to a much better 116 since SFG is such a pitcher friendly park.

Put my name down on the Martin to the pen in 2013 petition as well.

Pence with a .307 OBP? Why on earth did Amaro choose not to pay him $12 million this year? He'd fit right in with this team.

Why put Martin in the bullpen when you can just trade a top prospect for a middle reliever?

I assume you guys have seen this Machado-Robinson gif? So awesome.
http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18t5s1v82ej95gif/ku-medium.gif

They will probably trade Martin for Joba.

From MLBTradeRumors:

The Cubs should be able to get a solid prospect return for Schierholtz, both because he's playing very well and because his salary won't be an obstacle. The Pirates (whose fans Schierholtz might remind of Nate McLouth, and not just because of his first name) would be an obvious fit. Travis Snider has played horribly in an extended audition in right, and while Jose Tabata has played well recently in Snider's place, Tabata and Schierholtz would fit together nicely in a platoon. The Rangers might also be a possibility, although they would likely prefer a right-handed hitter. Contenders with more stable outfields also might show interest in Schierholtz, since he would be very useful as a fourth outfielder.

HA....HAHAHAHAHA!


What a kick in the nuts.

Be interesting to see if Machado beats out Beltre for the gold glove this year. It'll probably come down to Beltre having more homeruns.

There's also plenty of top relievers that teams would like to convert into a starter that ultimately head back into a bullpen role. Aroldis Chapman is this years example and Neftali Feliz was last years.

That top 10 lost is pretty remarkable lorecore. It leads me to ask though...where is Juan Carlos Oviedo right now anyway??

Oh and a note on Machado at SS. I haven't done anything on FanDuel in awhile, but he was always listed at SS there earlier in the season. They had a few interesting variations on certain positions actually.

When I first saw we signed Nix I was actually thinking "Hmm...good signing". Then I saw it was a 2 year deal. WTF Rube?!?

Posted by: NEPP | Sunday, December 04, 2011 at 08:38 PM

hah, there are about a dozen posts that all the say the same thing: Why the 2nd year?!

And now Schierholtz is going to net someone else besides the Phils a good prospect all because of that 2nd year.

3rd base in the AL is ridiculous right now. Cabrera, Longoria, Machado, and Beltre are all legitimate top-5 to 10 MVP candidates.

The talent in the AL in general is ridiculous.

Would Schierholtz have gotten enough regular playing time with the Phillies to produce solid numbers, thus worthy of getting a solid prospect in return? I suspect things wouldn't have worked out the same way for him.

Well he would have probably had a steady platoon until the almighty Delmon joined the team.

and to no surprise TTI and Iceman said that giving Nix a 2nd year wasn't a worth complaining about, since he's "just a bench player".

Signing the most generic commodities like bench worthy platoon hitting corner defensive players to anything more than a 1 year commitment is a stupid decision, and the Nix/Schierholtz saga displayed it perfectly. Phillies dropped the slightly better player in lieu of a worse one because of the guaranteed money.

Bench players and relievers shouldn't receive deals for longer than a year.

Bed's Beard: If the Phillies were being managed properly, yes. They would've gone with a Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon in RF and Schierholtz would've played against righty starters, the way he has with the Cubs.

It's not an excuse for incompetent front office work to say the field management would've been more incompetent, so it's no big deal. Incompetence in the organization is incompetence. And Amaro is Charlie's boss, too. It goes up to him.

lorecore: so which is dumber, the 2nd year or not understanding sunk costs?

bbeard: maybe not, but what are the chances that schierholtz puts up a .202/.255/.303 line in more than 106 PA? Probably about 99%.

*better line than*

Would Schierholtz have gotten enough regular playing time with the Phillies to produce solid numbers, thus worthy of getting a solid prospect in return? I suspect things wouldn't have worked out the same way for him.

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 01:43 PM

A Mayberry/SChierholtz platoon would be a massive upgrade on watching Delmon Young try to play RF every day.

Offensively and defensively most likely.

Phillies dropped the slightly better player in lieu of a worse one because of the guaranteed money.

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 01:45 PM

In their defense, at least they smartly reinvested that money saved by signing Chad Durbin to solidify the bullpen and Delmon Young to be an everyday RF...so it was win-win.

Ruf's super small sample size MLB career so far:

1.114 OPS

With Howard being out, we will finally get to see where he ends up with a little bigger of a sample.

I wonder what the Giants version of Beerleaguer is saying these days about tossing Schierholtz into the Pence deal, now that they're giving Francouer a chance.

And quite frankly I still could care less about the second year to Nix. Had I known he would turn into a complete pumpkin upon signing here than yeah I'd never have done it. But he was coming off OPS+ years of: 99, 114, 103. I also assumed he would be a backup outfielder who was looked at as your left-handed bench option.

Also, to be quite honest this is what I exactly said:

"2 years is a little crazy but honestly I don't know what the market was for other outfielders. I do know that Nix is a pretty good defensive outfielder and will give us another guy off the bench with some pop."

"Also, a possibility on the 2 years for Nix is that they view him as moving into Thome's role after Thome possibly retires (or is just gone) following the season."

_____________________________________

So I did show some reservations on the second year and I even framed my argument around what the thoughts may have been for Nix as part of the 2 year deal.

So you are wrong again lore(whatever ending you put on your name). Next time you want to play gotcha try to pull your head out of the same place you are getting your ideas from and post something worthwhile.

I have Schierholtz in a daily fantasy league where I can pull him out of the lineup on days the Cubs face a lefty. He's been great. This experience with platoons and how to employ them has left me sadly overqualified to work for the Phillies organization, thus crushing my boyhood dream.

On another note: Cosart pitches on Friday for the Astros against the Rays.

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