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Wednesday, June 19, 2013

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*position players in WAR

Don't look now but Howard's OPS+ is back up to 115 on the year.

Look at Howard in the positive, that'a boy!

Utley batting second would prevent the Phils from having three straight lefties 3-4-5 in Utley, Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown.

But, but, but...Utley hits third. Because, well, because, uh, he...he hits third!

Not recently RBill

Profar to the outfield? What does it mean?

Just looked at _elm_n's B-R and FanGraphs pages.

OPS+ over the last 5 years:

2009: 92
2010: 124
2011: 90
2012: 89
2013: 87

At some point, you have to accept that 2010 was a fluke.

More alarmingly, his K rate over the last 3 years:

2011: 16.9%
2012: 18.4%
2013: 23.4%

Contact-on-swing rate:

2011: 80.8%
2012: 75.7%
2013: 73.7%

This looks like your typical late-career fade, except _elm_n is only 27. In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "it's getting late early" for _elm_n.

It means that Kinsler and Andrus are veterans under long-term prospects but that they still want to get Profar playing time.

Nothing more.

prospects should be contracts in the above post.

"The assumption is that Revere continues to leadoff"

The only way Revere leads off is if Rollins stays in the 3 hole, but then where does that put MYoung? In the 6 or 7 hole. I guess I could see MYoung in the 6 hole, but anything lower would be seen as disrespect to a veteran (especially a productive vet) and we all know Charlie won't do that.

FREE RUF

Cyclic: He hasn't been hitting anywhere recently. But for argument's sake:

2013: 59.8% of PAs hitting third
2013: 32.7% of PAs hitting second

Just read the rest of the post. cseidman seems to agree MYoung bats 6th.

I think _elm_n is visionary & I hereby declare my intent to refer to him as such in all future posts.

Cyclic - I think it will take a nice hot streak to free Ruf. He needs to bat .450 and hit 10 home runs over a two week span to force the issue.

Profar to the OF means that the Rangers' BL is blowing up w/ "our GM is an idiot!"

Maybe they should maximize DYoung's Production™ and give him fewer ABs by hitting 2 high (for this team) OBP guys in front of him at 6th and 7th with MYoung and Ruiz.

...move Michael Young down to sixth in the order and Delmon Young to seventh.

Personally, I'd think about moving Yak down in the order to out of the starting lineup.

Perhaps giving Andrus, a career 81 OPS+ hitter a 700 year deal when the #1 prospect in baseball was a MLB ready SS sitting in AAA wasn't the smartest idea for Jon Daniels.

That's RubenAmaroesque there.

Andrus has a .581 OPS this year BTW...in case you were curious.

Are Seidman and the Wizzer on TV? I could have sworn (while under the effect of muscle relaxers) I saw them on Comcast during the weekend talking Phils in the middle of the night.

It's funny how this issue never seems to have occurred to the Rangers when they extended both Kinsler & Andrus -- both within the past 14 months.

Sil - I think we all agree on that one. If DYoung can't earn a spot higher than 7th, why is he starting over Mayberry?

Profar to the OF diminishes his positional value, but he provides zero value on the bench or in AAA, so it makes sense if you just want to get him into the lineup.

If the big man with an arthritic knee legs out a triple to lead off the inning, the least the guys behind him can do is get him home. It has to be hard to run all the way to third on a pained knee. It was discourteous not to get him to home after his effort.

(I don't truly think it was rude, but it was a darn shame.)

Still and all, it was a good win last night.

If M. Young and Revere end up with good numbers - they are certainly contributing now - then I think we need to give RAJ his due credit for adding them. Signing D. Young, on the other hand, and Durbin...those were mistakes.

They should have looked to move Andrus this off-season or during the season this year as he would have had a ton of value.

RBill-- If you look at the game logs, his move to 2nd to split up he and Howard has been pretty consistent since late April.

In his last 20 starts (when not batting 4th) he's hit 2nd 13 times, including 8 of the last 9, and 3rd 7 times.

I'm not sure he hits 3rd when he gets back.

Have to say, I like how _elm_n looks. I'm switching as well.

Signing D. Young wasn't really the mistake...continually throwing him out there and handing him a starting role in RF based on nothing more than hopes and dreams was the mistake.

Andrus has a .581 OPS this year BTW...in case you were curious.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, June 19, 2013 at 12:00 PM

Andrus isn't a fantastic offensive player, but despite the .581 OPS this year he's still worth .8 bWAR this season.

And he's been worth about 4 each season, so he's a pretty valuable player. They didn't necessarily make a mistake extending him, but they definitely aren't maximizing their assets.

And frankly, replacing David Murphy in LF is a good use of Profar...Murphy's been awful.

***And he's been worth about 4 each season, so he's a pretty valuable player. They didn't necessarily make a mistake extending him, but they definitely aren't maximizing their assets.***

He's definitely a great defensive player and that is his saving grace but even fantastic defense doesnt make a .581 OPS hitter valuable (ie worth $15 million a year like he's being paid).

Maybe if they didn't have Profar sitting around it made sense but since they did, they're now playing the #1 prospect in baseball in LF rather than at his natural position.

I'm jonesin for another Dom dinger

I just found this.

"Alfonso Soriano has always been a role model to me. One day I hope to complain about switching positions like him and sign a big contract and play half heartedly."

-J. Profar

Maybe the Phillies can flip Pettibone for something like they did with Happ and Worley.

Posted by: gobaystars!
********
Pettibone has given up 72 hits in 61 IP, 38 SO, a 1.5 WHIP, and trending downward. He's practically worthless.

And I like the guy. I'd be shocked if anyone was willing to pay to get him.

Time to give Zambrano a few starts. If he stinks, dump him. If he's good, STILL dump him! He will not get through the season successfully. Accept that, like many marginally talented pitchers who are called up/return to the majors, he may pitch well for awhile. But the key is to get rid of him BEFORE the inevitable regression comes.

Did anyone in the world think Jonathan Pettibone was going to continue to pitch to a 3.00 ERA as he had after six starts?

what happened to GTown Dave?

Phillies should promote Ruf to hit off Gio. He's .667 lifetime w/ 3 RBI in 3 AB's.

FWIW, Brown has a higher OPS against lefties this year (58ABs) than righties. I like Utley batting second because of his career OBP, but Young has really improved his walk rate.

Having Mike Young bat third would be the expected decision, but all the double plays have left scars.

Rollins has been more patient batting third (.356 OBP), but he'll be lucky to hit 15 homers this year.

If Revere continues to lead off, can you bat Delmon Young above 8th (bat him ahead of M.Young, who has the highest OBP of Phils' regulars, or Carlos Ruiz)?

IMO,
Revere
Utley
Rollins
Howard
Brown
Michael Young
Ruiz
Delmon Young/Mayberry

what happened to GTown Dave?

Posted by: danomyte | Wednesday, June 19, 2013 at 12:15 PM

I believe he swore off the Phillies when Michael Martinez was recalled (the first time)

Not sure if anyone commented on this, but Baseball America reported that the Phillies promoted Maikel Franco to Reading.

Tim - I think Chooch stays in the 8 hole for a few more games.

Right on schedule...now the real test begins for Franco.

AA, where so many prospects have gone to die.

Thanks. I didn't realize his numbers were that bad. He survived his first few starts and then I stopped paying attention apparently.

Cyclic: Just bustin' stones. I looked at the game logs, too, but it didn't help my point. So, in true BL fashion, I left that part out.

He absolutely should hit second on his return to the lineup. 100%. And, in fact, I hope he does.

I like the Franco promotion...at only 20, he's really young for AA, but he's earned it.

I guess the question will be: will Utley hit 2nd or will he only hit 2nd against LHP?

I think he should hit 2nd. Period.

Ruf needs to pay Mini Mart for some of those Tijuana Donkey Show with a young Rube.

Thanks, Chris.

awh has changed his handle to Tim?

So why is Dugan still at Clearwater? RAJ probably thinks his season has been a failure because he has too many walks.

Reasons I dont post much at PhuturePhillies anymore:

1. People arguing that Hewitt is still a real prospect

2. People saying they should move Maikel Franco to LF to make room for Zach Green (a 3B prospect in Williamsport)


James used to cut off those types of stupid comments pretty quickly when he was running the site.

So why is Dugan still at Clearwater? RAJ probably thinks his season has been a failure because he has too many walks.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, June 19, 2013 at 12:26 PM

Well, with an outfield of Derrick Mitchell, Tyson Gillies, Anthony Hewitt, and Zach Collier, I don't know how they'd possibly find playing time for him...

"2. People saying they should move Maikel Franco to LF to make room for Zach Green (a 3B prospect in Williamsport)"

I'm going to suggest you may have missed sarcasm on that one.

franco to reading...need one more worthwhile prospect to get the callup and i'm shelling out the $40

Derrick Mitchell promoted to AAA, so there is actually a spot for Dugan now.

I'm going to suggest you may have missed sarcasm on that one.

Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, June 19, 2013 at 12:30 PM

Maybe...there are some pretty stupid people that post there (see the Hewitt comments that are being made on why they cant promote Dugan as it would take away Hewitt's playing time...or how they should promote Hewitt to AAA to make room).

Dugan is playing for Clearwater as we speak, so maybe they're waiting for him to finish the game before announcing.

NEPP - I just read those and the Hewitt comments came off as a joke to me. Matter of interpretation perhaps?

And maybe we can get a Nix DFA and a Mitchell call up to round out a day of moves that actually make sense.

I would advocate a Elmn release too, but don't want to get too carried away.

*Jermaine Mitchell, not Derrick.

I think Dugan hasn't hit an allotted number of PAs to be promoted.

Asche had 270 PAs in Clearwater last season before getting the call. Franco had 289 this year. Dugan is at 195 right now.

If stupid comments are reason enough to not go to a website, nobody would be online at this point.

Its more a lack of interesting content ever since James left too (similar to how BL is trending downhill with Jason not doing the thread headers anymore IMHO).

redburb: speculation is that Franco/Asche were promoted once the team was clinched/eliminated from being first half champs, not because they hit an allotted PA amount.

They just happened to have similar amounts since they both played from the start of the year, while Dugan missed time.

I agree with that NEPP. I loved James' breakdown of prospects drafted and his pre-draft primer.

nepp: how sweet would the JW graphic had been for the "chooch is back" header yesterday? We'll never know i guess.

I find it a little odd that JW doesn't post here anymore, even in comments.

The only interesting part of BL anymore is the comments, and most of those have devolved into pissing matches between certain posters...

Free The Jew™.

Hey, it's BL pissing contests which gave us "DWOS"

Is JW a frontrunner?

I can't believe there isnt a better player out there than Delmon Young.
What does it take to get him out of here to get an upgrade?

Maybe G-Town Dave was JW's alter-ego created to blow off steam?


/not serious

"Maybe G-Town Dave was JW's alter-ego created to blow off steam?"

This...actually would explain a lot.

Not to be confused with DWTS.

"I can't believe there isnt a better player out there than Delmon Young.
What does it take to get him out of here to get an upgrade?"

He'd be on standby behind Mini Mart, so, not gonna happen. Deal with it :)

I can't believe there isnt a better player out there than Delmon Young.
What does it take to get him out of here to get an upgrade?

Seeing Mini Mart is still here,that should answer your question.

Hey, Kevin Youkilis is available. You wanted an upgrade in RF, no?

Why not Frandsen in Right?

"Why not Frandsen in Right?"

Because that might make sense? Besides which, can he create Production™?

NEPP: I pop over to Phuture Phillies from time to time to read the threads. I agree the site misses it's creator (so does this one). It's still the best place to get aggregated pharm news. But I don't think anyone seriously argues either of those points you listed. You should recognize sarcasm and gallows humor when you see it, we have enough of it here.

Maybe we could bring back Pat the Bat to replace the Yak?

Is Mini-Mart on the roster right now? I can never keep it straight.

Jack, keep in mind when you post a question like that, the answer could (literally) change from minute to minute, so there is no 100% reliable response!

Franco is a guy I would like to see. Just basically go to an R-Phils game where Biddle is on the mound and Franco is at 3B.

I love D Young. He is great.

(My publicist told me to say this.)

jbird: No, there are definitely some Hewitt-is-a-prospect posts which are 100% serious.

BAP: There is the occasional commentator here with a little irrational exuberance as well.

Those who have called me out here (like I really GAS) because I was incorrect about the team's intent with elm n can have their last laugh.

I was wrong because I gave r00b and the FO tooooo much credit, and seriously underestimated the team's reliance on Dummyball.

Frandsen gets the start tonight again at 2B.

Frandsen should really start against more lefties. Why isn't Charlie doing this???

What lefties? Isn't Gio something like only the 14th LHSP we've faced this year?

On the plus side, Mike Zagurski is now a free agent.

Now if only we could get Tyler Walker back...

Mini Mart was a pinch runner on Monday night.

Paula Deen - I hope you have a stroke. Contributed to the 'Stroke Belt' with your diet loaded with saturated fat/cholesterol/etc, lied about being a diabetic, and then struck a deal with millions with Novo Nordisk to promote a 'healthy lifestyle.'

MG: everything in moderation.

In fact, as soon as Paula's diagnosis was publicized, her show mostly got axed in favor of her son, who started preparing healthy meals that are diabetic-friendly.

then struck a deal with millions with Novo Nordisk to promote a 'healthy lifestyle.'

It's a shame it couldn't have been a deal to live a healthy lifestyle in Novosibirsk. Like permanently.

Jose Valverde had another good outing today.

Butter is bad for you?!? Who knew...

MG is the only poster here that has actually had me laughing at my desk with some of the stuff he says. This Paula Deen comment is the latest one that had me doing a spit take.

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