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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

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This team screwed itself by relying too heavily on Bastardo coming into the season. He had one good season as a late-inning reliever. He will never again throw as hard as he did that season. He's strictly fringe, and they just keep throwing him out there late/close. It's stupid and suicidal. You can make a case either way that Adams could have been counted on to be more effective, but Bastardo was lousy last year and he should not have had the kind of billing he retained going into this season.

The guys running this team are just stuck in the past. They're all about 'track records' and 'coming around', never mind the more immediate evidence in front of them. Amaro said in that Salisbury interview that he's convinced Howard is going to come around and get in a groove. Why not just admit you're hoping and dreaming instead of watching and acting.

LHB against Adams this year: 1.001 OPS. Bastardo should've been in there.

But yeah, I agree that he's closer to fringe than reliable at this point.

Saw that Zambrano got promoted to Lehigh as a starter. I'm sure he will be in the rotation sooner than later.

Even if Utley/Chooch/Lannan get back sooner than expected, it won't matter. Even with those 3, this is a .500 team at best and there is no help on the horizon for the OF or bullpen.

who cares...

Phils' offense is so pedestrian that they are getting manhandled by MLB journeyman.

It would be if the no-name jobber came into the ring, had his way with the old decrepit former super star, and pinned him with some lame finisher (say a body slam or a clothesline).

Repeat from last thread because I didn't realize a new thread opened 45 minutes ago:

Yeah, I think it's a stretch to blame Cholly for bringing in Bastardo against a lefty. If Adams were dealing, then you might have a valid criticism. But Adams looked as shaky as Bastardo.

If all but 1 or 2 pitchers in your bullpen are terrible, it's kind of hard to blame the manager for bringing in Terrible Pitcher A instead of Terrible Pitchers B, C, or D.

I decided to make Mango Smoothies...I knew Bastardo was going to blow it......By the time Ruiz and Utley come back it'll probably be too late..Not saying they will necessarily carry this team..Of course Amaro is going to defend Howard...It was signing his huge Albatross..Do you expect to come out and say Mea Culpa?

LA was questioning Cholly before the inning even started about inserting Adams in the 8th inning.

Cholly also not bunting with his leadoff man, after Frandsen got the pinch-hit with 0 outs, also drew question from LA. Chuckles got away with it when Howard singled in the tie run with 2 outs. If Young can't bunt or isn't ever going to be asked to bunt, then why is he hitting leadoff? I'd say every other leadoff hitter in baseball would have been asked to sacrifice in that situation.

After a worse-then-dreadful start, Diekman has been unhittable in his last 5 outings. Just 1 hit allowed in 5 innings and 9 K's. He has really taken to the closer role at Lehigh.

Yes, its only 5 outings. But as bad as Horst has been, its not going to take a lot from someone at AAA to merit a callup and to demote Horst. It took Rube 2 full months to get rid of Durbin. Horst has somehow survived until mid June and I really have no idea why.

Although I could see Horst going down when Zambrano is put on the active roster (likely by the beginning of next week). That would move Cloyd into the bullpen as the long man and Savery would slot into the 2nd lefty spot in the pen (might as well give Joe a legit shot to pitch in some higher-leverage situations; its likely now or never for him).

The Adams signing looks to be another really questionable move by the FO. This guy cannot stay healthy and its probably only a matter of time before he heads back to the DL again with another injury. He has not solved the 8th inning issue. DeFratus is probably destined for that job anyway at this point, whether Adams is healthy or not.

Ohh well....the Phils get to see Mike Pelfrey tomorrow. Howard probably slept in the dugout tonight salivating at seeing Pelf again. If the Phils can't put up 5 plus against him, then there really might not be much hope.

This isn't baseball, it's more like zombie-ball.

I agree with Everybody.

I am sick of the Bastardo experiment. It has failed.

Your DH went 0 for 4 and is now hitting 224. The second worst BA of the bunch next to Galvis.

I am much more comfortable with the idea "Michael Young isn't really a typical leadoff hitter but we don't really have one" than the idea "Michael Young, go try to lay down your first sacrifice bunt in 10 years".

I agree that Savery should be able to be used as a LOOGY in high-leverage situations. The skill level to be effective in that bullpen role, league-wide, is not very high. Even Horst probably could do it. The problem is that since Scott Eyre, Manuel hasn't actually used anyone in that role.

In the typical MLB bullpen, you have a few kinds of pitchers: 1-inning guys, 2-inning guys who can get LHP and RHP out, strict platoon guys, and long men. In Charlie's bullpen, you only have 1-inning guys and long men. If we had more 2-inning guys, we wouldn't see Horst in so many games, and maybe we could use him as the LOOGY that he should be.

Side note: can anyone remember the last time, in a close game, Charlie Manuel used a non-long-man for multiple innings? I know it's the NL and pitchers' spots come up, but I'd be surprised if that happened more than a handful of times over the last year. Most other teams, if a guy throws an effective inning, he'll stay out there for another inning. For Charlie, it's 1-inning-at-a-time, unless you're a Long Man.

Once again, scant few guys out of the 'pen not named Papelbon that can be relied upon. I think DeFratus will do well given the chance. Stutes has pitched well since his return. Everybody else seems just as likely to allow runs as not.

Adams is hurt, you have to think. He's a better pitcher than what he's shown. Even in spring training, his pitches had much more bite; he was able to snap off nasty stuff pretty regularly. Haven't seen that guy in a while.

Bastardo cannot be trusted. You might as well try Savery in those spots like DH said. He probably can't do worse than Bastardo or Horst.

Phils 3 games under .500, lost to team 5 games under .500 on the road. Doesn't seem like that shocking of an outcome.

Don't believe what rube said. I predicted it and his trying to drive up markets. This thing is going to be blown up fools.

I am sick of the Bastardo experiment. It has failed.

Posted by: Corn | Wednesday, June 12, 2013 at 01:29 AM

You're right. Time to move him back to the starting rotation.

he's convinced Howard is going to come around and get in a groove.

Isn't a rut a kind of a groove?

I'll say this about Mike Adams. I had him on my fantasy team (holds league) in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Passed on him last year because he was starting to slip. Now the Phillies have him. They are pretty good at snagging guys a few years after their prime (also see: Michael Young)

I am sick of the "FILL IN PLAYER NAME" experiment. It has failed.

With the loss, the Phillies dropped to 8-27 when scoring three or fewer runs.

That is a telling stat. That is your manager not doing is job. This as a ~.500 team right now that can't win ballgames when getting decent/good/great starting pitching performances. That's a problem.

You can set your watch by one of my Charlie-bashing posts, but it's the truth. There is no way he should still have a job. None. It blows my mind every morning.

Wow, how refreshing from a team-playing slugger with a monster contract who has been slowed by injury.

"Right now, I still feel like I'm having productive at-bats and still helping us win ball games," said Morneau, who is hitting .297 and leads the Twins with 36 RBIs.

"It'll come if I keep hitting the ball hard. Obviously, it's frustrating. But doing different things to help us win, I think I can live with that."

The games leading up to the July fire sale are going to be really ugly. There is no excuse to lose 3/4 to the Brewers and then start losing to the Twins. I never heard of half the Twins line up. And P.J. Walters went 7 1/3? That had to be a career game for him. And they looked so awful at the plate. Walters was working fast and there was no slowing him down or anything.

So is this the "never" part of "now or never"?

Well, the Phils lineup can make a PJ Walters look like Walter Johnson

Our injured backup catcher has more home runs in fewer plate appearances than our cleanup hitter.

If the team is blown up, Howard ought to be right behind Pap on the bus out of town. I'd rather see Ruf or Mayberry at 1B and Howard's money spent elsewhere than to continue dreaming that he's suddenly going to revert to the player that he was during the previous decade.

The Phils could be in last place if 2 of the worst teams in baseball weren't in the NL East

With the loss, the Phillies dropped to 8-27 when scoring three or fewer runs.

That is a telling stat. That is your manager not doing is job.

There's lots to bash Charlie about, but I don't follow your logic that a bad record in a certain scenario over 40% of a season "is your manager not doing his job". It could be the manager, it could be the GM, it could be a formerly good team in a down cycle, it could be SSS. Most likely, it is a combination of the 4.

Again, who exactly is taking a cleanup hitter batting .256/.298/.437 for a 97 OPS+ making $25 million?

Oh, and that has a torn meniscus

MG - Journeymen?

Don't you know that we only lose to the best young pitchers in baseball history? Ask clout.

Winning 5 in a row sure was fun

This team now elicits zero emotion from me either way. I couldn't be more apathetic. The 9th inning last night was the perfect summation of this team up to this point. Lifeless.

"With the loss, the Phillies dropped to 8-27 when scoring three or fewer runs.

That is a telling stat. That is your manager not doing is job."

No its not, its actually a complete BS stat with 0 context, a BL thread header specialty over the past months.

2013 lg avg win% when scoring 3 or less: .227% (204-696)

2013 Phillies win% when scoring 3 or less: .229 (8-27)

Even if Utley/Chooch/Lannan get back sooner than expected, it won't matter. Even with those 3, this is a .500 team at best and there is no help on the horizon for the OF or bullpen.

Posted by: MG


Unless it's 2012 Chooch and 2007-2009 Utley. Then we're gonna be WFC!

The only thing that makes me feel better about this series is the thought that I don't have to watch 8million Target ads during the game like the Twins fans probably have to.

for anyone curious:

The Brewers have the worst W% when scoring less than 3 runs (1-25) and the Dbacks have the best (12-18).

So what does it take to get put on the DL here? In reference to Adams & Howard.

35 games where the Phils have scored 3 or less is the more telling stat.

Ryan Howard would have to eat alkaseltzer off the ground and blow up to be put on DL.

Guess we just have to look forward to September 16th....the next time the Marlins are up on the schedule.

Although, we still got some games against the Mets coming up. Clap Yo' Hands!!

Whoever thinks that Revere "should" make that play where he sprints back and leaps against the wall with his back turned must think extremely highly of Revere.

So to learn that it was MG who cries like a baby anytime someone calls Revere a top defender is the guy expecting Revere to make such a play is pretty hard to comprehend.

Phillies scoring 3 or less:

2007: 4-41 (.089)
2008: 12-47 (.203)
2009: 10-48 (.172)
2010: 24-51 (.320)
2011: 30-47 (.390)
2012: 19-57 (.250)
2013: 8-27 (.229)

I can think of a couple things about these stats which are telling.

Rube said RFD didn't prove he could be an every day player when given the chance last year. How much of a chance does DYoung get? Seems he has already proved he can't.

it's not getting any better since tonight we are facing One Of The Best Arms In Baseball™ : Big Pelf.

How do you have 35 games where you score 3 runs or less? That is just downright embarrassing.

Pelfrey will probably fall 6 times on the mound and with 3 of them he will roll the ball to the plate and Delmon Young will swing at all of them.

-With Ryan Doumit leading off the fourth, Hamels disagreed with a call and kept his back turned to Emmel for a few seconds in clear frustration. Emmel then took off his mask and sternly stared back at the 29-year-old.-

I didn't get to watch the game, but if this description is accurate, it's exactly what's wrong w/ MLB umps today. So Hamels turned his back, so what? Not like he was barking at the ump. Zero reason for Emmel to posture like that, just a power-tripping egomaniac trying to get the spotlight.

Oh yeah, and this team sucks.

Sean - It's one of the Best YOUNG Arms in Baseball. Doesn't matter how old the "kid" is. He's still young relative to clout.

Phillies scoring 3 or less:

2007: 44 games out of 162 (27%)
2008: 59 games out of 162 (36%)
2009: 58 games out of 162 (36%)
2010: 75 games out of 162 (46%)
2011: 77 games out of 162 (48%)
2012: 76 games out of 162 (47%)
2013: 35 games out of 65 (54%)

Hmmmm...

So far the telling moment of the season was when Aoki was thrown out stealing the other night. Frandsen covered and made the tag, beating Rollins there, who evidently believed HE was supposed to be covering (probably correctly since he's a regular). Afterwards, Rollins stood there with his hands on his hips looking mildly disgusted. As Frandsen flipped him to ball to toss it around the horn, Rollins let it fall off his body to the ground. A truly inspired moment from our resident front runner.


Blow. It. Up.

on Howard: He's making $25,000,000 for the next 3 years. $20,000,000 this season. He's not going anywhere unless the Phillies eat most of that. RAJ is stuck paying him no matter what. Salary dumping him is a fantasy.

Can I see what kind of lineups and rotations the "blow it up" people are expecting to see if such action is taken?

I didn't see the Rollins moment with Frandsen but him getting pissed at Brown the other night for running into him again was fun. I also have enjoyed his constant motioning and pleading to Revere to play further in. I wonder if Jimmy could be dealt at the deadline? Seems like he might be more open to leaving this drek in his rearview.

Phillies scoring 3 or less:

2007: 44 games out of 162 (27%)
2008: 59 games out of 162 (36%)
2009: 58 games out of 162 (36%)
2010: 75 games out of 162 (46%)
2011: 77 games out of 162 (48%)
2012: 76 games out of 162 (47%)
2013: 35 games out of 65 (54%)

Hmmmm...
__________________________________
Looks like they should add another ace or closer.

A lot of what's wrong with this team amounts to denial of the truth or the stubborn refusal to acknowledge it.

Example: Howard is hurt. He clearly is a shell of himself (and that's being generous) and is probably near replacement level - I'll let one of the SABR guys tell me if I'm right about that part. Put succinctly, he's getting dangerously close to the ol' BL cliché of "actively hurting the team." But no surgery. Because getting healthy (in a relatively short recovery time compared to other surgeries) and being the player you're capable of being is a "last option."

Another example: Jeremy Horst. He just hasn't been the guy he was in limited duty last season. Fans see that. Everyone sees that. Yet, he remains with the club when he has MiLB options that clearly should be exercised. Maybe he can work things out a bit in AAA and come back better.

Yet, these situations are ignored and players are continually put in position to fail. I don't necessarily blame UC for this either. It isn't his fault, for example, that half the bullpen is unavailable due to fatigue or injury.

Time to start acknowledging the obvious.

"he's getting dangerously close to the ol' BL cliché of "actively hurting the team."

He's blown way past just "hurting" this team. His performance and contract by themselves are hurting the team, combine them both and he's absolutely murdering them.

But but but Horst was obtained in the Valdez deal and Ruben is so proud of it! He wants to show the world what he did!

I really hope these nastily lean Howard years don't overshadow the beast that he once was. I have for the most part always been a Howard apologist. I can't be anymore but in his prime he really was something else.

If Horst is used properly (only against lefties) he is decent to above average. His usage against righties is the problem.

I still don't understand what Delmon Young has done to prove that he needs to start and play on a daily basis.

He is maintaining his weight. That's what he's done to prove it.

i feel like its our/media's fault for Delmon. Maybe if we just never complained about it, Ruben wouldn't think its such a big deal to make sure Delmon gets the best possible chance to prove him "right".

"With the loss, the Phillies dropped to 8-27 when scoring three or fewer runs.

That is a telling stat. That is your manager not doing is job. This as a ~.500 team right now that can't win ballgames when getting decent/good/great starting pitching performances"

R.Bill's a great poster so I'm going to assume he missed his morning coffee & was still half-asleep when he wrote this. As lorecore alluded to, that stat doesn't tell you anything about how the Phillies PITCHED. It only tells you how they hit. No manager in baseball is going to win many games when his team scores 3 or fewer runs. Quite honestly, it's probably a credit to the pitching that they've won 23% of those games. That actually seems somewhat higher than I'd expect.

Yak seems to be focusing on earning the easiest bonus money for an athlete, possibly ever (unless you're the fat@ss panda). Would he be a better hitter if he was fat? We know he can't possibly be a worse fielder.

Delmon 2011: .268/.302/.393
Delmon 2012: .267/.296/.411
Delmon 2013: .224/.281/.422

And just a few days ago Ruben said that Delmon isn't producing the way he had hoped.

That's the most frustrating part about this...Delmon Young is doing EXACTLY what he's been doing all along, and the GM running a billion dollar franchise doesn't even have the insight to know this.

Elmon, Yak, NoD, whatever is poison. I'm convinced.

Ruben was expecting 2012 ALCS/WS Delmon to show up for all of 2013. I mean c'mon can we blame him for that? 8 games is definitely an indicator of a career right? Right?

Basically what it comes down to is that people wouldn't be at all angry if it was Ruf putting up the same #s because at least you would be giving him the chance and his success could mean good things down the road. A guy like Delmon Young doesn't deserve any chances yet he is being forcefed to us.

Joe - I would agree with you if Ruf was 24 but he is 26. I don't know how many years he has down the road.

Having said that, I would rather see Ruf out there than Donut.

I know Ruf is no spring chicken but he deserves more of a chance than a guy who has shown already that he is worthless outside of one good 8-game stretch. Plus Ruf would be incredibly cheaper if he were to stick with the big club and produce as a power righthanded bat.

Joe D-- My thoughts EXACTLY

Delmon Young is basically at his ceiling right now and Rube's talking about how he's still disappointed.

I don't care if he's only got one year of tremendous success at AA. There is no way Ruf would throw up a line worse than .224/281/.422. At worst he'd have a slightly lower SLG but far better AVG and OBP.

I'm almost starting to think that, if the Phillies traded Howard for AA organizational filler, and agreed to pay every penny of his remaining contract including the $10M buyout in 2017, they'd still come away on the better end of the deal. In the first couple years after he signed that deal, the problem wasn't that Ryan Howard was a bad player; the problem was that he was a slightly above average 1st baseman who was being paid like an all-time great. Now the problem is BOTH the contract and the fact that he's a terrible player, who's even worse than replacement level. Since no one's taking his contract off our hands, we're paying his $85M remaining salary either way. We might as well pay to have him stink it up for some other team.

I know Cyclic but stats like AVG and OBP are lost on this Stanford grad that runs this baseball team.

Maybe St. Louis can take Howard since it's his hometown and then maybe he can bring that team down. The success that team sees makes me sick.

BAP, Howard in his current condition would probably struggle to be a platoon DH on an American League team - even if we paid every last dime as you suggested.

That's why:
1. The contract is as close to untradeable as I can remember and,
2. He should just HAVE THE STINKIN' SURGERY ALREADY!!!!

This is coming from a Howard supporter. I do think he still can help the team if he gets healthy.

If he waits until the offseason, then has the surgery, BL will explode.

Don't forget, Howard had the late, game-tying RBI last night. That bought him at least a few more weeks in the starting lineup (batting 4th).

Howard doesn't want the surgery because then they WILL call up a replacement (Ruf or Fields) who will perform better than he has been. And then, if he actually returns, either he'll sit on the bench or, if he wants to actually play in games, he'll actually have to work and make adjustments and, like, earn his salary.

So. No. He's not going to get the surgery.

This team needs radical surgery. It needs a veteranectomy.

So Ryan Howard won't get surgery to repair a torn meniscus because a minor leaguer could perform better than he's performing right now with a torn meniscus? Um what?

"Howard doesn't want the surgery because then they WILL call up a replacement (Ruf or Fields) who will perform better than he has been."

My theory is a spin on yours. I think RUBE doesn't want Howard to get the surgery because they will call up a replacement (Ruf or Fields) who will perform better than Howard.

They aren't benching Howard for anyone. Fields could come up here and bat 1.000 while Howard's on the DL and he'd come back and bat cleanup. They aren't going to pay that kind of salary to a part-time player.

Heather has said some ridiculous things over the years, but I'm wondering if her theory of their pushing him to play with an injury has something to do with the insurance policy in his contract.

So Howard is suffering from Wally Pipp syndrome?

RedBurb: Andy didn't say "right now," and neither did I. The meniscus has created a myth that Howard was performing before we ever heard about this mensicus issue. He wasn't. His performance has actually IMPROVED since he had that cortisone shot.

But Andy referred to getting the surgery. Did he need surgery on another injury prior to the knee issue?

Lerud should of never called that pitch. Bastardo should of just shook it off. Who's at fault here? Cholly did nothing wrong yesterday. Yes he makes some questionable moves. This is a mediocre to slightly below mediocre squad. Just about any manager will have problems making the right moves. Adams is injured the signing is looking bad at this point.

RedBurb: Well, I'll let Andy speak for himself. But I understood him to be saying that the replacement would perform better than Howard is capable of performing at this point, injury or not. Otherwise, the post wouldn't make much sense.

BAP wasnt he batting .280 something the first 4-5 weeks. I could be wrong though.

Andy: "veteranectomy" Love it!

Pre cortisone

.245/.282/.430/.713

Post cortisone

.281/.333/.453/.786

Listened to the Twins announcers last night. Apparently, the Phils have some guy named Rawlings playing shortstop. Must have a good glove.

And it was painfully obvious to them that Howard can't hit because he's playing on one leg. His opposite field swing is, indeed, looking quite pathetic. Balls he used to drive are dying behind the shortstop.

Ben Revere is not a major league player. He is almost pathologically unable to use his speed. And it's not that he didn't make a great catch last night. It's that unless he makes every great catch possible, he's worthless because his bat is Martinez level awful.

Dom Brown looks pretty good when he makes good contact. But when he doesn't, his newly impatient at bats are tough to watch.

I would very much like to see all the kids in AAA and AA brought up and as many veterans dumped as possible. Yes, the team would be awful. But it's awful now with no hope of improving. The last thing I want to see is Carlos Zambrano and Roy Halladay in the rotation come September. What the heck will that tell us about anything? Sure, keep Cliff Lee. He's great. But dump anyone else you can for as much young talent as possible. And of course you can't get rid of Howard. Get his knee fixed up before my head explodes and if he can't hit lefties in the future, platoon him. It neither angers God nor Congress to platoon Howard and even possibly move him from cleanup.

Oh, and DL poor Mike Adams. He looks like he's going to fall apart, literally, on the mound. Get him some physical therapy and let him get himself in some kind of pitching shape.

And make it clear to Charlie that he becomes an adviser after this year. Sandberg is the manager, so stop saying you still want to manage this slop.

"plm"-- His OPS was .833 on May 7 with 6 HRs.

I think it's clear that the injury has been affecting him since then.

Even with the minor improvement from the cortisone, he hasn't been very good. And he absolutely has no power (1 HR since May 7!).

smitty - Of all the things to complain about on this team, Dom Brown's ABs are the least of them.

PLM: But now we're into "Myth of the Healthy Polanco" logic. Remember when Polanco had that spectacular April in 2011, then completely fell off the cliff for the rest of the year and everyone said, "If only it weren't for that injury, he would hit like he did in April?" Then he came back "healthy" the next year & did exponentially worse -- and this year, he's worse yet for the Marlins.

Vance Worley was another one. When he stunk it up last year, some of us believed he was just reverting to the mediocrity that was expected of him from Day 1. But awh and a few others were quick to diagnose his bone chips as the cause -- even though other pitchers have had the same condition & pitched just fine. This year, Worley is bone chip-free but has been absolutely awful.

The lesson: all players have anomalous slumps & anomalous hot streaks over the course of a season. And all players tend to have nagging injury conditions over the course of the season -- most of which we never hear about unless they happen to correspond with the player's slump. Sometimes the injury is very definitely the cause of a drop-off. But when a player has been in decline for several years, and he goes into a protracted slump which drops his numbers to recent career norms, it's very likely that the drop-off is just a case of reversion to norms -- even if the player happens to have some sort of injury around the same time.

I don't know about anyone else, but I want to see Zambrano come up and perform well along with Lannan coming back healthy. If they both do well, the team can flip them for something. Heck it could be a few Kyle Simons and Seth Rosins, and that would be fine with me.

Flashback: The Phillies had won 5 in a row. They had a 4-0 lead in the 5th inning. Cliff Lee was on the mound. Loss. Loss. Loss. Loss.

Yeah I think Brown is simply pressing in some situations with men on because he is the only guy on this team that could actually drive someone in.

The style in which the losses came in the Milwaukee series was incredibly disheartening and especially with Lee being human to start this stretch of losses. That Lee loss felt a lot like the loss from the NLDS against the Cardinals. It signaled doom.

I wonder if Zambrano has a weight or d-bag clause in his minor league deal?

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