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Saturday, June 15, 2013

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Over/under on number of days before Horst is optioned?

Sound the alarms, Larry Greene hit a HR.

I've been away for eight days in Disney World on a family vacation and the Phillies mostly played like Horst manure while I was gone. As for Pettibone or Zambrano against the Mets, I guess Zambrano will sell more tickets. See ya, Jonathan, it was nice knowing ya!

Now that Jon p has sxit the bed. The real question is if the fox traffic chick will still be dating him??????

Almost guaranteed that they bring up Big Z soon later than later to replace Pettibone although I am not counting on any upgrade there.

Ditto Horst being sent down when they activate Lannan on Monday. Diekman can't be any worse and he actually is a tough LOOGY. Happy if the Phils don't see Horst again this year or not until the expanded Sept rosters.

Revere:

He had another multi-hit game and his 3 of the road trip.

Since May 1st, he's been the player the Phils hoped they would get offensively. A guy who hits for a high average (.323), get on base at a decent enough clip (.359), and steal bases (10 SBs).

His OPS since then is .719 which isn't great but if he plays very good defense, hits ~.300 AVG/.700 OPS, and steals 40 SBs, that is pretty much his ceiling and probably translates into a 2-3 WAR player.

Not great but gives the Phils a badly needed cheaper everyday starter who isn't a FA until '18.

Understand why fans are frustrated with him though after the terrible start in April he had, his defense which has been above average but not good, and some of the little things he doesn't do particularly.

Revere is just more of a scapegoat and lightning rod for a team's offensive futility.

Galvis has been pretty pitiful at the since he has been starting everyday looking overmatched an awful lot especially against RHP with a good slider/changeup who just eat him up. Yet he doesn't get much flak or coverage in the media or on any of the Phils' blogs.

Phillies site urges fans to "Send Utley & Co. to the ASG."

I'm as big a home town voter as anybody, but how can you really put Utley on your All Star ballot this year.

You'd think , if they had any sense, the team would want him to have the days off anyway with all his injury woes.

I think you are right about Petti and Zambrano MG. Kind of expected Petti to be batted around after a few starts. We've seen this and been the victim of the recent call up who pitches well. Then after a few starts implode. Though Zambrano and Lannan arent much of a upgrade. The fact that they are veterans its almost automatic preference with Rube no matter what the case.

Should insert the word *probably* arent much of a upgrade...

Moves that Amaro didn't make:

- Keeping Schierholtz over Nix

Nix has been a complete zero outside of a few PH ABs in April this year with a .217/.278/.313 line in 90 PAs. Forgotten man on the bench who can't even get starting time in this poor offense.

Schierholtz is at .295/.328/.568 in 187 PAs and has been arguably the most consistent player in the Cubs' lineup.

Difference (Nix: 0.1 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR; Schierholtz: 1.2 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR)

- Trading for M. Young and not signing E. Chavez & going with a platoon of E. Chavez/Frandsen

I hated the idea of signing Chavez because I thought for sure he was going to have an extended DL stint. He still might but he has been killing it as the DBacks mainstay at 3B with a .325/.368/.588 line in 126 PAs.

M. Young has badly tailed off and is clearly is a player who has lost any real pop in his bat. He has put up an overall .281/.354/.367 line in 246 PAs with the complete lack of range as advertised at 3B whether laterally or coming on balls. Makes plays he gets to & has a solid arm but doesn't get to nearly enough balls.

M. Young also cost the Phils two pitchers in Lindblom and Bonilla. Bonilla's been hit very hard at Round Rock (AAA) and Lindblom pitched very well as a starter but struggled in his brief callup.

Difference (M. Young: -0.3 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR; Chavez: 0.8 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR)

- Signing M. Adams and not just about any other setup like reliever.

Adams has already had 1-trip to the DL, two different injury issues, and is struggling to hit 89 MPH on the gun and has a flat slider right now.

Blown leads late in several games and simply hasn't been the setup man the Phils have desperately needed in the 8th inning. The Phils have a putrid 5.64 ERA in the 8th inning and Adams is a key reason why.

Uehara, Affeldt, and Burnett are all have very good seasons so far. The only reliever who got similar money and struggled has been Broxton.

Worst yet is the Phils on the hook for another $7M next year with Adams and a contract that is basically untradeable given Adams' injury woes.

Difference (Adams: 0.3 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR)

- Signing Durbin

Simply put Durbin was a disaster from the get go and was in the early runner for one of the 3-4 worst relievers in MLB before he got released.

Lindstrom, Howell, Frasor, O. Perez, Gorzelanny, J. Veras, or just about anybody who got a guaranteed MLB deal as a reliever would have been an upgrade.

Good thing Amaro saved those bucks and signed D. Young.

Difference (Durbin: -0.8 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR)

Just about everything Amaro did this offseason so far has been a bad move or an outright clusterf@ck.

I HATED the Durbin signing and wasn't a fan of the Adams deal. I was in different at the time to seeing Schierholtz let go although I think he was a better fit as a role player type than Nix. Didn't want the Phils to sign E. Chavez and instead I wanted them to go after Youkilis which wouldn't have worked out so well.

Not pretending that the Phils would be legit contenders if Amaro had made all of the moves above instead that I suggested but they certainly would be .500 and likely even a game or two over right there with the Nats, Giants, and Rockies.

Amaro has yet to have an offseason where he has done even a competent job of finding secondary talent to put around the major pieces let alone having an outstanding season where he really comes up with some great secondary acquisitions that really help the club.

Pedro's midget - Lannan's an upgrade over Pettibone or Zambrano. Every article I have seen on Zambrano so far mentions how he is in the mid-80s by the 4th or 5th inning and every Phils' coach/FO guy says something like 'still needs to show improvement.' Still think Zambrano gets called up especially after Pettibone's outing today. Pettibone might have one more start to show he should stay up.

Do you think since D. Young knew he wasn't going to start this series that he was secretly snacking a bit more including during the game?

I can see him 'going to the bathroom' early in the game and coming back with some chocolate on the side of his mouth from the Snickers bar he inhaled instead in the clubhouse hidden in his locker.

@MG

I think it's doughnuts, chocolate doughnuts. He's probably muttering anti-Semitic slurs about Amaro as he limps out of locker room, not even caring enough to wipe the crumbs off of his face.

At this point, discussions about Zambrano, Pettibone and Lannan aren't worth one's time or effort. None are going to make any difference to this year's intractably mediocre club.

Youklis was a no no for me MG.

I expect Zambrano to see MLB action for no other reason than Rube's never-ending quest to get something for nothing.

As others have pointed out, he's really no upgrade over the 'Bone as a starter. Wouldn't be opposed to seeing him in a middle relief role, however.

I do not expect any of this to happen, but I would trade -
Cliff Lee for Profar and
Papelbon for Nick Castellanos in a heartbeat.

To get these deals done, I'd be willing to add pieces, but -
I want to keep Hamels and Brown from the major-league roster;
I want to keep Biddle and Franco; and
I want to keep Quinn and Tocci.

It's only been a year or so, but I am tired of all the discussion of how to make a mediocre team marginally better.

Castellanos and Profar are future stars and represent the beginning of a rebuild.

What I really want is a new set of decision-makers in the front office.

How likely is that?

When Utley returns, he will have missed about 30 games in less than half a season. It looks as though his ability to avoid the DL has not improved.

Time to say good-bye.

Dave and MG,
I can see the scene when Johnny Sac catches Ginny eating chocolate in the laundry room after he put the contract out on Ralphie (for the fat joke) played out with Rube and D Young.

Once again Horst made a bad game worse giving us no chance to comeback. Should be sent down immediately and stay down. Petti did a nice job but needs more time in AAA unless Rube blows it up and let's the kids play.

I do not expect any of this to happen, but I would trade -
Cliff Lee for Profar and
Papelbon for Nick Castellanos in a heartbeat.
-----

These are sadly trades that must be made if we sell. I'd fight to get Avasial Garcia the Tigers to. We also have to have Oscar Tavaras and Kolton Wong on our short list.

If you trade cliff lee, you have the right to ask for all the names you guys just mentioned.

If you trade Papelbon or anyone else, you can't even get into the conversation.

DOM was retired by Chris Volstad. He could have been on a 50 game hitting streak prior to this game, and it wouldn't matter.

The rut is official.

I want to say Happy Fathers Day to who I believe is my daddy. Happy Father's Day Sarge, you met my momma at the old Pennant and magic happened behind the dumpster.

If you trade Lee I think you should be able to get both a top pitching prospect and a top hitting prospect. At the very least you should be able to get 2 top 5 guys from a team's farm system. Picking up money should help that. Papelbon might get you a nice piece from someone's farm system too.

"I am not going anywhere. I came here to close and win games. I had a chance to go everywhere and I picked here, Philadelphia."

Jon Papelbon, SI Baseball Report Sat June 15 Colorado

The Phillies believe there are at least three teams — Red Sox, Tigers, and Cardinals — that may have some interest in Jonathan Papelbon at the trade deadline and the Phillies are scouting those teams with a potential deal in mind. General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said last week that he’s not ready to “blow up” the Phillies, but a Papelbon trade could help retool the club.

Rube your non evaluating talent ass better have your ducks in order.

lorecore - I wouldn't call it a "rut". Dom is experiencing a learning curve. I expect him to bust out soon and hit 5 home runs in one week.

Does anyone really want Amaro making "retooling" type trades?

Considering how little he's gotten back for Pence, Lee and Victorino in the past few years (and how he got fleeced for Oswalt), the last thing we need is him trading Papelbon and/or Lee and/or Utley.

Other GM's are probably salivating at the thought of stealing a few of the actual players on this roster anyone would want for a bag of balls.

Getting Halladay was a really good trade. Mayberry for Golson has turned out to be a really good trade. A few of the minor pickups (Moyer and Stairs) turned out great.

But his track record, on trades/free agents/contracts is abysmal. He's gotten little in return in trades, spent a ton of money and hamstrung the franchise for years to come.

When Cholly heads out the door at the end of the year, Rube should follow him. Its time for both of them.

denny b - That is one of my biggest fears too although I do really want the Phils to see what they can get for Papelbon. His value won't be higher, he's making a ton of money the next 2 years, and this team isn't going to contend for a playoff spot this year or next.

Keeping Lee makes more sense from a competitive/business standpoint and the Phils don't have an abundance of starting pitching prospects.

They don't either in the bullpen but that $13M could be employed in a couple of ways if Amaro actually doesn't sign some of the worst FA relievers every offseason.

With those three teams that could be interested, and the holes the philles have. Rube would be a fool not too. All three systems have deep prospects. So I don't think ruin could mess this up, but this is ruin. So I won't be suprised. He needs to hold out for highest offer.

Moyer and Stairs were Gillick pickups. If you're going to go on some rant about how bad the GM is, at least get the transactions right.

Denny probably also thinks Amaro gave Lidge that big bad contract extension.

While i understand people's reluctance to trade players because of Amaro's track record, he's not going anywhere this year or next, and probably not for the next year after that.

You can't argue that the team just shouldn't make any transactions for the next 2-3 years because you're afraid of losing a trade.


Although I agree with denny's point about the return on the Lee, Pence, & Vic trades, I have a hard time saying that we got "fleeced" on the Oswalt trade. Happ has ranged from terrible to merely well below average since we traded him away. Villar is still flailing away in the minors. And Gose has had a few cups of coffee in the majors but hasn't played well -- and was stinking it up at AAA this year.

Because Oswalt flopped in 2012, people tend to forget that he was outrageously good for us in 2010, at a time when we needed him to be outrageously good. The Phillies were still 2.5 games out of 1st on the day of the Oswalt trade. His pitching was a big reason why we ended up winning the division by 6.

Gillick traded for Moyer in 2006:

2006: 117 ERA+ in 51 IP
2007: 91 ERA+ in 199 IP
2008: 117 ERA+ in 196 IP

Ruben re-signs him in FA:

2009: 85 ERA+ in 162 IP
2010: 84 ERA+ in 111 IP

"You can't argue that the team just shouldn't make any transactions for the next 2-3 years because you're afraid of losing a trade."

I don't think people are arguing that the team shouldn't make *any* trades. I for one am arguing that the team shouldn't "retool" via trades, since RAJ is terrible at it. Instead we should let old contracts expire, and make a few savvy moves in FA.

Jake: If we're going to let old contracts expire via free agency, wouldn't it make more sense to trade those guys away before they hit free agency so you can get something back for them? Unless, of course, you consider us to have a realistic shot of making the playoffs this year. At 7.5 games out of the division lead, and 7.5 games out of the WC -- and with a roster filled with washed up players and flat-out stiffs -- I, for one, do NOT think we have a realistic shot at making the playoffs this year. And if RAJ believes otherwise, and proceeds accordingly, I think he'd be making a colossal mistake.

I do think there is a realistic shot at making the playoffs IF the Phillies are succesful buyers at the deadline. The current roster probably couldn't make the playoffs even if it overachieved, but add a good outfielder (doesn't need to be Stanton, just a good hitter/fielder) and 1-2 quality bullpen pieces, and this team can definitely contend for this terrible division.

BAP - Also, most of the trade talk is regarding Lee and Papelbon who are locked in for the next few years. Whether the Phillies contend this year or not, I would want a stud ace and a stud closer on next years' team.

Jake - That would empty what is left of the farm system and even if they got that I don't see this team making the playoffs unless the 2nd WC gets in at 87-88 wins.

That's 55-38 (.591) the rest of the way. This team hasn't been good enough to get above .500 the entire year, is playing with several older guys who have had injury issues (Howard, Utley, JRoll, Chooch), and doesn't have an identifiable strength.

The only good thing Amaro didn't do this offseason is tie the Phils' hands with a really bad long-term contract. Adams comes closest and at least it was only a 2-yr deal. He has misfired on almost every other move and chasing after a fleeting and distant possibility is a piss poor way to run things.

The Phils can't and won't 'blew it up' for business-related reasons but trying to chase a WC is a fool's errand with this team.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/36263/ten-reasons-the-phillies-will-be-buyers

This was out a month ago when the Phils were 23-24. Since then, they have gone 10-12.

Maybe the Phils stun me, Chooch/Utley come back, and the Phils are able go into the trading deadline at 3 or 4 games above .500. The argument for chasing a WC is a bit stronger then but this is a team playing below average/poor teams and still not capable of going .500 the past few weeks.

Talk about getting no love - the Phis are dogs today even with Hamels on the mound. Still take the Rockies at -108.

MG had some stuff to get off his chest this morning.

One week after saying he'd like to see Revere dumped at the end of the season, it looks like he's finally given into reality, and the fact that the last 6-7 weeks, he's been giving them basically the best of what we could expect from him offensively. However, then he says this:

" his defense which has been above average but not good,"

Above-average but not good? My guess is MG looked at some statistics and found that Revere has been an above-average CF so far based on advanced statistics. He posted those statistics back when they fit his argument, but they're oddly missing here.

Anyway, I'm glad MG has seen the light that Revere is a cheap option who will be a positive contributor going forward (with some defensive upside), and is the absolute least of the team's problems right now.

Jake: Your point about wanting a stud ace is a fair one -- although, at 35, I have concerns about how much longer Lee will fit that description. But I disagree with the rest. For one thing, even if I agreed that 1 good, not great, bat + 2 relievers would put us on equal footing to the Braves, we'd have a 7.5 game deficit to overcome. That's not impossible but, even if all else is equal, it's enormously improbable.

Of course, I don't agree that the offense is 1 good hitter away from being being decent. I think we're about 4 good hitters away from being decent. And, while 2 "quality bullpen pieces" would help, the rub is in actually finding, and acquiring, those 2 quality relievers. Relievers are a crapshoot. Even if you think you're getting a good one, you often aren't (See, i.e., Adams).

Most of all, I disagree with you because, in order to acquire that one good hitter & 2 relievers, we'd have to trade away some of our better, if not best, prospects. That would be an insane thing to do for a team that is 33-36, with aging starters all over the place. Even RAJ seems to recognize that.

BAP - As we should know by now, dealing prospects is not a terrible way to acquire talent. You're letting go of an unknown commodity for a known commodity. All prospects are hit or miss, I wouldn't consider anyone in the Phillies system untouchable, except maybe Jesse Biddle.

A .591 winning percentage is not an impossibility. It may seem impossible if you look at it in a vacuum, but if for example the team rattles off an 8 game winning streak at some point this season, and they go 49-36 in the remaining games (good, not great) that's a 90 win season.

Happy Father's Day to all you BL dads!

Thanks GBrett, this is my first! Happy Fathers Day to all.

I am embarrassed every Father's Day.Oy vey, ay carromba.

If other teams falter and the Phils have a string of luck, the Phils could make the playoffs. That might satisfy some, but not me. The fact is the team sucks and the foreseeable future is dim.

Changes are needed in the leadership. We've got to rid ourselves of the deadwood. And we need a lot more top young talent than our system can supply.

I just see keeping Cliff as setting up another Schilling situation.

This can't be another Schilling situation. Schilling was going to be a free agent, so he had leverage to force the move. And Ed Wade was the GM. Thank God he is no longer anywhere near the . . .

Any way possible we can get rid of Adams? I have a bad feeling this dude is spiraling down to been a mediocre 6 Million dollar set up man.

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