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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

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repost "after blow up" projections:

If Ruiz/Utley return and give you trade value, and keep Lee:

Lee, Hamels, KK, Prospect, Pettibone, FA 6th($60M);
Prospect, FA, FA, Adams, DeFratus, Bastardo, Stutes; ($18M)
FA, Howard, Cesar, Galvis, Prospect ($45M)
FA, Revere, DOM ($20M)

Kratz, Frandsen, Mayberry, FA/Pros, FA/Pros ($7M)

That's ~$150M payroll, so room for a few an improvement here or there. Utley/Ruiz/Rollins/Paps/MYoung/whoever need to turn into a #4 SP, Closer, and 3B at the MLB level for the plan to work, and hopefully that includes a little excess in the minors.

-----------

If you trade Lee:

Hamels, KK, Prospect, Pettibone, FA, FA ($40M)
Prospect, FA, FA, Adams, DeFratus, Bastardo, Stutes; ($18M)
FA, Howard, Prospect, Galvis, Prospect ($40M)
Prospect, Revere, DOM ($2M)

Kratz, Frandsen, Mayberry, Cesar, FA/Pros ($5M)

Roster down to $105M so now you're looking at much better FAs, and adding Lee to the selloff means you should get a better SP prospect than before, and add two position players. I have them at 2B and LF for the list, but obviously could be anywhere and then adjust the players/FA to fit.

Also left room in both scenarios to eat money on paps/lee to get desired prospects if needed.

lorecore: Who are these FAs who'll fit right in with the team?

Get excited.

Header should say Phillies In Danger of Repeating June 2012.

If the team does repeat their June 2012 performance, you can bet the farm there will be a sell off.

Comparing the Phils situation to the Cards and Red Sox of previous years is laughable. The Phils don't have nearly as many building blocks.

No offense to Mr. Hall, but why bother talking about Howard's stats against the Pelf? It's not like he is going to hit sh-t off him tonight.

clout: if keeping lee, i have 2 relievers, a catcher, and a corner OF in FA.

I budgetted around $8M for two relievers. A pair of guys like Benoit, JP Howell, Oflaherty, Frasor should fit that bill.

I budgeted $12M for catcher, that should be around enough for McCann. If not, a maybe a short term deal for Ruiz/Peirzynski.

I budgeted $15M for corner OF. Choo, Hart, Granderson may be in play. A lesser guy like Cruz or Morse.

Plenty of options. Way too early to name names, but i think my outline shows that its very possible to fill gaps if you can trade current players away for resources like $$ and young talent.

All I know is that they better plug these gaps with guys who want nothing to do with getting on base.

This die-hard fan is scoreboarding with the Phillies 8 games back in June. Happy to see the Padres take a 3-0 lead on the Braves, threatening to sweep. Sad that the Phillies are third place in this crappy division.

If by diehard fan you mean T-Mac then yes. That idiot loves to talk about other games in the division as if it matters.

lorecore: If by "fill gaps" you mean win 70 games, I agree.

Hamels, KK, Prospect, Pettibone, FA, FA ($40M)

What happened to the "alternative viewpoints"? These headers are a bunch of meaningless data-dumps.

I don't think T-Mac decides what pops up on the screen.

Good to see Cholly tweak the lineup and get Lerud's bat right in there.

I thought Amaro's recent comments were revealing. Obviously, a GM cannot say that they are heading for a selloff. It's another thing to suggest that a few additions to the roster will fix the problem. What possible reason could he have for saying this when it is self evident that the current team will consider a .500 record to be a major accomplishment?

I can only speculate that a selloff would be seen as an admission of failure. For that reason, Amaro advocates for a few bandaids on a festering wound. It suggests to me that he perceives his job to be on the line,therefore, he is trying to downplay the obvious. It sounds like desperation to me. He can endeavor to put the best possible face on a bad situation, but he can't fake the win-loss record. Losing one game after another to the worst teams in baseball will not go unnoticed by Montgomery et al.

I will rerun the Revere numbers in CF against his peers but I would bet money so far he isn't in the Top 10 in any category so far.

I'll take anything over Quintero at this point, my issue is with Revere and DYoung. They should be bench players.

Revere 2nd
Howard 4th
DYoung as DH

Yep...

N. Schierholtz rf .293 How does that compare to our RFers? But Yak is close,Cholly said as much.

David Murphy's piece here:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Dont-call-it-a-blow-up-but-it-is-officially-time-for-the-Phillies-to-start-acting.html

gets it pretty much right. You can't "blow it up" right now because Utley and Chooch have to re-establish that they are healthy and can help a contender down the stretch. Deal Papelbon, see what Kendrick might bring back, and wait until the other guys get healthy before putting them on the block.

T-Mac talks NL East games even when graphics aren't up.

Bourjos would like nice in CF instead of Revere. Granted he has only played in 24 games but he has outproduced Revere in half as many games.

Phils at +110 vs 'Big Stiff' Pelfrey? I'll take a piece of that although the normal guys who used to paste him are either gone or on the DL.

Howard has really good numbers vs Pelfrey but JRoll is so-so and the rest of the lineup has hardly faced Pelfrey.

Tommy Joseph back to the DL.

Saddest part about that Murphy piece is the date in the byline. June 12th. Ugh.

Who thinks Joseph will end up being a total bust?

Raises hand.

Yeah Joseph is Lou Marson. The dream was fun while it lasted.

HOW LERUD!

clout: If they trade Lee, then they could afford to go after better FA pitchers like Garza or Kuroda (or maybe even Lincecum/Josh Johnson), but yea that's why trading Lee is going to be tough, and they really need Utley/Ruiz to come back and establish value to help round out a rebuild.

I get that Schierholtz is doing well this year, and that our RFs have stunk. But does anyone think that Schierholtz would've been used properly if he'd stayed? The Cubs have pretty much utilized him perfectly.

I wonder if Bobby Estalella still has a few needles laying around and could be of help if they need a pop up down the first base line.

Sil - My magic eight-ball says 'Prognosis Very Unlikely'

They would have Schierholtz face lefties. That's the proper use right?

The sad part is, if Ruben Amaro didn't give Laynce Nix a 2 year deal, then he would have actually kept Schierholtz.

That is the sole reason. Anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves.

Here is how playing time and the roster is determined...

- if you are under contract for multiple years you play no matter what
- if you make more than the other player that could play then you play
- if you are part of a deal Ruben is proud of you log the most innings out of the bullpen

I really like Murphy's column today. Papelbon absolutely should be moved although I would fish around to see what JRoll would get.

I feel like J-Roll might be more open to a deal. He seems pretty miserable this year.

Steve,
I believe "alternative" is basically a PC way of saying "homosexual".
When I first came here, clout, Jack, dlhunter, DPatrone, etc ruled this blog so I assume they meant that those posters were assumed to be gay.

"... the rest of the lineup has hardly faced Pelfrey. "

I'm sure Pelfrey will Settle Down™ and dominate them like a tall, blonde, black leather-clad dominatrix...

Thought about J-Roll to Oakland but Lowrie is having a nice year so far. It's going to be hard to move any of these guys.

The saddest part of a once-great team on the decline: players who we love want to leave so they can win while they can, and we want them to leave so we can win next year and beyond.

Seeing Rollins leave would be particularly rough; Utley has been great, but he's on borrowed time physically, and Howard's already gone. Ruiz is another who'd be a heartbreaker.

I agree with Murphy that trading Rollins and Lee doesn't make a ton of sense, as you'd be dealing quality players on affordable contracts and - if your intention was to compete anytime soon - immediately trying to sign a quality SS and ace on an affordable contract. Yeah, you get the prospects, but that's only a win if you end up with equivalent quality FAs for roughly the same price.

The uncertainty makes it seem smarter to keep those two and go balls out to trade Utley, Ruiz, Adams, the Youngs, Mayberry, Papelbon, Kendrick, Lannan, Manuel, Sandberg, TMac, etc...

joe d: Lowrie is a poor SS, he belongs at 2B, where the A's have nothing. Acquiring Rollins would allow them to move Lowrie over and round out their IF nicely.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/08/why-baseball-games-take-long/wikaeRMGatBDGDefpbFE1H/story.html

"Five years ago, Major League Baseball sought to address its pace-of-game problem, issuing a directive to players, coaches, and umpires to — so to speak — make it snappy. From 2008 to 2011, games averaged around 2 hours and 51 minutes. After a bump to 2:55:58 in 2012, game times this year through Thursday are averaging 2:57:53 — a mark that would tie the 2000 season for the all-time high.

In 1963, when Vin Scully was in his 13th year as Dodgers broadcaster, games averaged 2 hours and 25 minutes. What could have added a solid half-hour since then?"

It is a lot of reasons why this has happened but it certainly isn't because the quality of the umpiring has improved (certainly hasn't) or the product is different.

Selig really needs to crack down on this again and there really are a couple of fixes that could save off a few minutes of the game easily.

True, lorecore...I forgot they shifted him to SS out of necessity.

The Cardinals could certainly use J-Roll to replace Pete Kozma at shortstop. They'd also be an interesting landing spot for Papelbon, even though Mujica's done an outstanding job filling in for Jason Motte.

"What could have added a solid half-hour since then?"

Bullpen Specialization. Teams average over 4 different pitchers per game in 2013, and under 3 in 1963. Which means that per game its over 8, and under 6.

clout: The Cardinals retooled around guys like Molina, Craig, Freese, M. Carpenter, Lynn, Wainwright, Rosenthal, and Jay, all of whom are 31 or younger. The RedSox retooled around Pedroia, Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Lester, and Buchholz -- under 30 all -- and then signed Napoli, who is 31. The Phillies have exactly one plus everyday player who is under 30. 6 of their starting 8 are in their mid-30s or higher and every last one of them is declining, save for possibly Chooch (operative word: "possibly;" he simply hasn't played enough this year to get a read).

I'm sort of puzzled as to what you think the Phillies should do. You're firmly on record as believing that the window ends after this year. Yet you don't want to trade declining players for prospects, you chide lorecore when he suggests trimming payroll & finding FA upgrades, and you ridicule anyone who suggests playing the prospects that the Phillies already have. So, what exactly would be your plan?

Joe D- every time you say something outside of your standard bitching, you reveal how little you actually know. By all means, keep going.

"So, what exactly would be your plan? "

Improve Production™

bap -
clout doesn't make suggestions, he only criticizes them.

Feels like a win tonight, albeit a pointless one.

5-1 Padres. 7.5 back, here we come!

I would be loathe to trade Lee, Hamels or Kendrick, because a good rotation is still worth a lot. It would probably be a mistake to trade Brown, Galvis, or Pettibone because they are very cheap.

The Youngs and Howard, while not all very fungible, have very little future value. Utley, Rollins and Ruiz might bring some value in return.

The real catch in any of this talk, however, is that Amaro has shown very little aptitude in acquiring talent by either trade or free agency.

The first step in blowing up the team has to be to blow up Amaro.

No matter what scenario you people paint. I am in charge and I am the man!

Looks like the Padres are going to jump over the Phillies in the WC race. They are leading the Braves 5-1. They will go to 32-34

@ Sil

Completely agree. Its one thing to have the right players but that turns into a whole different universe when you look at the manager on this team.

Padres win. Braves get swept.

This division sucks. Phillies need to be buyers at the deadline.

@Jakes to get rolfstomped in the playoffs

I am concerned about our team's offense due to this Derecho tonight and so few Latinos in the lineup who understand what derecho means.

this division does suck.

With a good 1-2 punch, any team can win a playoff series, even the Phillies.

Personally, the biggest reason I've thrown in the towel is that even in my wildest dreams I can't envision a scenario where they somehow make the playoffs. I think about this team in the postseason and I actually have to stifle laughter.

Even last year I held out hope until the bitter end. This year, the playoffs seem as far away as they were in the early 2000s. A pipe dream with no basis in reality.

Agreed. Behind CLiff Lee and Kyle Kendrick, our rotation can match up with anyone.

Iceman - I have no delusions. The Phillies look atrocious right now, but add a bat and 2 bullpen arms, and this team could compete. I held out hope last year until the meltdown in Houston. I'm not giving up in June.

Dave - Funny, but seriously Cole isn't that bad. He just can't take the pressure of being an ace. He dominates when he's the best #3 starter in baseball.

The division sucks, we need to be buyers...hmm. Let's drop the seller talk for a second and ask if we were to buy what will be on the market? A bullpen arm from the white sox? Brian Wilson as a free agent? Andre Either?

Cole Hamels can't take the pressure? That is really preposterous. Yes, he's been pretty below average this year, but it's most likely something mechanical, or he's tipping his pitches. The guy has absolutely never bowed to pressure. He is a serious competitor. And anyone who's watched the Phillies and doesn't think so is likely blind.

There are a lot of problems with this team. But Hamels being unable to handle the pressure is not one of them. The only pressure this pitching staff ever has is the offense they have to play alongside and the bullpen they have to turn games over to. Now, THAT is some serious pressure for a pitcher who is used to winning.

I would support Ruben Amaro trading away the farm for G. Stanton. How nice would Stanton-Brown look batting 4-5 ? (that's assuming Charlie is willing to move Howard out of the cleanup spot). Not exactly sure where to get bullpen help. I could see Pettibone being a decent 7th inning arm.

CS: There are a few more names out there than that, but you bring up a good point. The Phillies would have some of the best pieces out there.

Right now, I'd argue that Ervin Santana is probably best pitcher a contender could add at the deadline, and Kendry Morales the best hitter.

I could be missing someone, but i think thats actually the two best. Yikes. That makes even an recently injured Chase Utley look like a must-have.

Utley on track for a return next week.

Kratz only out 6-8 weeks.

Manuel fired up about the lack of offense.

Things are lookin up!

now that stanton's hamstring rehab has turned into sore knees, and ozuna's production has more than made up for his absence, mb he can be pried away from miami. it's not like stanton's return would significantly increase attendance.

lorecore- absolutely. That's why I'm just amazed that JoeD would say it will be hard to trade any of these guys. Yeah the team sucks, but the pieces that would be available (assuming Papelbon and Lee would be on that list) from this year's roster would be basically the top of the class, unless names start getting thrown around that haven't been up to this point.

Lee, Papelbon, Rollins- if you deal those three you could get an absolute haul between the three of them. If Utley comes back and produces, they might be able to get something of value for him, also. Ruiz I don't think would get jack.

Again, let's plan for the other and talk about what we can get on the market. Is Willaman clinic Etcheverry option now that we have Crawford? Do we need to add a catcher as our ranks of catchers have fallen apart? We were willing to try Delmon Young why not Brian Wilson coming off of injury?

That was reet petite.

I'm sorry Siri didn't teanslate me and I didn't proofread it

At first I thought MG posted that. Whatever that was.

Just watched Barry Zito start four straight batters 0-2 and give up 4 straight hits. 2 in, runners at the corners, 0-1 to teh fifthe batter, finally gets a double play ball. He's down 3. Just an object lesson that it's not enough to simply throw strikes.

Would you swap Lee for Zito?

why would one take on Barry Zito. I'd take Hunter Pence back in a heartbeat. 20 doubles, 10 homers and would be a big upgrade in RF over that prematurely aged, bloated gimp they've chosen to play there for 1/12th the cost.

chewin' it old school.

That single cost you another week of him in the lineup.

Doumit is so bad, ha.

I inadvertently did the BL reverse jinx there.

not a fan of the sub optimal sac fly from DOM.

When Utley comes back, Howard will go on the DL

Got 2 but still feels like we did nothing that inning

When I think of Joe Mauer, Comcast Sportsnet's Ben Davis comes to mind every time.

here goes the lead

So, tornado watch . . . I know a safe place. I'm going to the Winchester.

Galvis should probably sit for Hernandez soon

strange to see a phillies catcher batting from the left.

bullit - good thing you said "batting" instead of "hitting."

kinda nice that in a 1-2-3 inning, the Phils made him throw 19 pitches.

lol, Andy. gameday did have that last pitch to lerud above the strike zone.

And it's definitely going to take more than two runs to win this game. So I hope they're not mailing the rest of this in.

Michael Young -- GG Defender Anywhere

i'm guessing the answer to the trivia question is revere.

I would assume Ben has more rookie stolen bases than Charlie

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