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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

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Charlie should stick with this lineup for a while. Utley is getting his stroke back which is huge for this offense. 8th inning is still the weakest link.

i agree, Jake. chooch raised his ba 10 pts to .257. so they are all above average.

By this lineup, I hope you mean Mayberry instead of Elmn Young. Because that's a major improvement. However, hitting Revere seventh is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. I am not a fan, but he has to either hit first or ninth. Charlie is simply swinging and missing at that part of the lineup.

ofc mayberry. i like revere leading off too. it seems to be BL orthodoxy that chase is no longer a 3 hole hitter. mb hit mabes there and get him an extra ab. where should uts hit now?

Im ready for my closeup Mr. Seville.

When im on the field I can still hit at he #3 hole. Dont listen to the Bl'ers....

What is with all these crazy handles lately? Someone has way too much time on their hands.

The arguments that the team has "no shot" at making the playoffs don't add up, although clearly the chances are small.

But what little chance they have will only remain alive if they get some bullpen help.

No way around that.

If the front office things they still have a chance they must go after guys like Jessie Crain, Addison Russel, and consider upgrading from Nix and Delmon. RAJ doesn't want to "morgage" the future but I'd prefer this team fights to the end and not surrenders on August 1st.

Jake,
Shud yer pie hole. I got this.

(Videos of Mike Adams project onto pictures of rain storms and puddles near bases. Ruben dressed all in white cries and sings to the imagines)

Rube: I set fire to the rain. Watched it burn as I touched your face....

"The Phillies still struggled with runners in scoring position, going just 2 for 13 on the night and leaving eight men on base. They totaled seven hits but also drew seven walks on the evening."

It's almost as though walks have something to do with scoring runs....

nahhh

Phillies gifted the Pads a win on Monday just so they could improve their record against teams above .500

Imagine how many more runs the Phils could have scored if they hadn't walked 7 times. I hope the coaching staff gets on the players for being so lazy and not going up to the plate hitting.

bittel: "But this is the point about Charlie: get them to take this approach every evening."

Marquis leads the league in walks and was giving guys passes on 4 straight balls no where near the zone.

To presume that the Phillies "approach" is what made last night's game different than games where they don't walk/score is ridiculous. And to further it by accusing Charlie as the reason why they won't walk 7 times tomorrow is even beyond that.

Seriously. We all know Manuel loves the long ball, but it's not like he's not telling hitters to be more selective.

He can't hit for 'em, and he doesn't have good enough backups to sub in for 'em if he wants to try benching someone as punishment.

The Phillies 'out walked' the Padres by 7 last night (7-0).

The last time the Phillies out walked an opponent by more than that was July 19, 2009. JA Happ and the relievers walked 1 while the offense worked 9.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200907190.shtml

So we should take more walks? Yes?...Could it be the players are turning their eye's to Cholly's lets hit home run take no walks old Philosophy..never mind that are players are aging/old and we dont have the supporting cast that hits for power..

I'm still kinda scared what Brown's doing is a mirage.

Hope this really is the beginning of another hot streak, even though I wouldn't expect it to be quite as "en fuego" (ugh, fvck you, TMac) as the last one.

So it's more fun to troll after a win than a loss?

Well, we did see Brown make more than one mental mistake in the outfield last night, so we can hang our hats on that being the item of mediocrity that brings him back down to Earth.

I can't believe that DOM's blast hit the top of the old Petco wall from last year. He murdered that thing - hah I can't believe a shot like that would have stayed in the park. Unreal.

apologies in advance for the long post, but this fits well with the mention of Billy Beane from last night. A parody of "Fight Club" by Mike Gianella of BP.com

Ruben Amaro is the narrator—a dissolute major-league general manager who feels like there is something wrong with his life but can’t quite put his finger on what’s bothering him. Suddenly, Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) shows up and teaches him the ways of Valuation Club.

The first big blockbuster dump trade of the 2013 season—Jonathan Papelbon to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon—is mourned by the front office and fans alike as if a close family member has died. Twenty thousand loyal Philadelphians congregate outside of Citizens Bank Park chanting, “His name was Jonathan Papelbon. His name was Jonathan Papelbon.” This chant becomes a rallying cry for Phillies fans throughout the rest of the season. At first, fans are reluctant to support a wholesale tearing down of the club, but eventually an army of fans willingly congregate at Bull’s Barbeque to train in the ways of proper player valuation.

Through Ruben Amaro’s example, this insurgent element of the fan base learns to stop embracing such bourgeois concepts as “wins” and “losses” and learns to embrace life itself! Each trade the team makes at the deadline is less about helping the team in the future and more about cutting through the shackles of Corporate America and to the core of who we are as a species!

While Amaro is teaching the lessons of Valuation Club in Philadelphia, Beane travels from city to city, teaching others the way of freeing yourself from modern society. Amaro travels to where Beane has been, seeing the damage Beane has done in his wake, until he asks a bartender what his name is and—SURPRISE!—the bartender reveals that Billy Beane is a manifestation of Amaro himself. Amaro discovers that Beane doesn’t just want to trade a few players but wants to blow up the entire organization, down to the instructional leagues. Amaro and Beane “fight” in the Phillies executive offices—here represented by a game of paper football. Amaro realizes that the only way to destroy Beane is to turn the football on himself. He aims the paper football at himself, the tip hitting him in the forehead. Beane disappears.

Amaro realizes that he has gone too far and tries to get the last remnants of the Phillies fan base that cares about winning (personified here by the lovely Helena Bonham Carter) to salvage the last vestiges of his sanity. While Amaro manages to find love in the arms of Bonham Carter/the traditionalists within Phillies fan base, it is too late as his alter ego has successfully signed the papers to “blow up” the Phillies—trading every player from the big club down to the young ones in instructional league to another organization in exchange for true understanding of the meaning of life itself. Amaro and Bonham Carter hold hands as every player in the entire Phillies organization is released—not only literally by the organization, but also out of the bounds of our mundane existence into the astral plane. The Phillies might never be competitive again, but at long last Mr. Amaro can taste freedom. Fin. Cue the Pixies

I would have to think old PetCo and AT&T (just due to the crazy well in front of McCovey Cove) hold the records for most inside-the-park HRs.

FYI that was DOM's deepet HR of the year (a rather disappointing 417ft).

That was crazy lore...

Weird SSS Anomaly...

Mayberry behind in the count (62 PA)
.306/.306/.419/.726

Mayberry ahead in the count (56 PA)
.167/.357/.333/.690

Rollins goes yard tonight

Padres starter tonight was traded for Mike Adams a few years ago. Another junkball lefty it seems.

junkball lefty?

I've heard he's one of the best young arms in baseball actually.

He's got a 5.25 ERA in AAA with a 1.543 WHIP

Maybe if Howard is "sore" again, we will see Frandsen at 1B.

I love hitting dingers in Petco Park. I love how they utilize puppy mills to overbreed their flawed animals which end up getting destroyed in 20+% of cases. Yeah.

So he's due for a reversion to the norm then...This just might be the game where it all comes together for him.

The fake handles are really hit and miss lately. Much better in moderation.

Cyclic been waiting for Jimmy to hit one out myself. PS...Im responsible for at least one of the fake handles...

"Pedro's Lucky Midget" is responsible for at least one of the jokey handles... inconceivable!

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

Damn - just saw Anibal Sanchez's line for the Tigers so far:

6-5, 2.76 ERA, 81.2 IP, 71 H, 23 BB, 101 K

Boy, he would have looked nice in our rotation, wouldn't he?

Been a rough day for Aaron Hernandez...first arrested and now released outright by the Pats.

I hear he might have a spot on the prison team but he would probably have to convert from tight end to wide receiver.

Cyclic's penis = jokey handle

"...best young arms in baseball actually.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:09 AM"

How dare you steal my schtick!!!

Plus, now you're gonna make clout mad at you.

I need my own schtick to compensate for this jokey handle...

I considered it an homage rather than theft.

Ah...well thank you then
an homage is a nice thing
you'll still make clout mad

Marquis leads the league in walks and was giving guys passes on 4 straight balls no where near the zone.

To presume that the Phillies "approach" is what made last night's game different than games where they don't walk/score is ridiculous.
********
we'll disagree then. If you think that Marquis was just miles different than other junkball pitchers who've dominated the Phils this season, fine. If the fact that he leads the league in walks made them more selective, all the better. But that's the approach to take to every garbage man they face, and they don't do it.

Point is: typically the Phils' plate discipline blows, and there are no consequences for it. Their manager is supposed to be a hitting guru, and he doesn't understand the importance of instilling plate discipline at all costs.

lorecore- working on those quotes for you.

Point is: typically the Phils' plate discipline blows, and there are no consequences for it. Their manager is supposed to be a hitting guru, and he doesn't understand the importance of instilling plate discipline at all costs.

Posted by: bittel | Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 11:20 AM

Perhaps because his boss has made it clear that he doesn't give a f@ck about walks and only cares about PRODUCTION. It's all about the RBIs, bittel.

One upgrade that I've always wanted Beerleaguer to make is to add a searchability feature. Granted, that feature would increase the number of "gotcha" posts, since it would be so easy to find the stupid things that people said in the past. But it would also greatly enhance one's ability to defend himself against distortions of his position. And, of course, it would be immensely helpful for situations like this morning's, in which Iceman has to somehow go through the thousands of posts he has written and find the 5 dumbest ones. It would take me weeks to produce my 5 dumbest posts ever.

That's what is nonsense. No one is getting benched, and Charlie isn't getting fired, because they walk too much. This is a complete Beerleaguer-centric Amaro red herring. There's nothing he ever said that I'm aware of that indicates he believes walks CAN'T be a part of production. He simply indicated (stupidly) that he doesn't care about walks APART from production. Meaning: I just want runs to score; I don't care how. He almosy certainly underestimates the value of walks in that process, that is still very different than penalizing someone for walking too much.

Show me one instance where that was done.

Watching Marquis last night, I was wondering why his ERA isn't in the teens. He sucked so badly that even the Phillies should have scored ten against him before he was taken out. In fact, that pitch Dom hit wasn't even good enough for batting practice. If the batting practice pitcher had thrown it, the hitter would have caught it and said to try harder. Pitchers in the homerun derby have better stuff than Marquis had last night.

I take little solace from this win. The team still sucks. I can only hope the pitching they face for the next few months is consistently as bad as Jason Marquis was last night. He had Jamie Moyer stuff, if Jamie Moyer's pitches sat up on a tee in the middle of the plate, or darted a foot outside and high.

"I don't care about walks," Amaro said in January. "I care about production. To be frank with you, I've said this all along. All of the sabermatricians and all of the people who think they know exactly what makes a good club . . . to me, it's more about run production and being able to score runs and drive in runs."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130328_Phillies_continue_to_rely_more_on_scouting_than_sabermetrics.html#KLlJK4wIemqvyOll.99

The fact that your GM doesn't understand the relationship between getting on base and scoring runs doesn't scare you?

I mean, really???

Rube's head exploded when Brown walked and got an RBI in the same at bat.

The things Rube Jr. doesn't understand are vast. And scary. But he is fortunate that he was created by the correct spermatic lineage.

bittel: "If the fact that he leads the league in walks made them more selective, all the better."

The fact the he leads the league in walks is because HE DOESNT THROW BALLS IN/CLOSE TO THE STRIKEZONE.

I'm not sure how I can respond/explain further.

"I would have to think old PetCo and AT&T (just due to the crazy well in front of McCovey Cove) hold the records for most inside-the-park HRs."

I doubt very seriously that either Petco or AT&T hold the record because AT&T only opened in 2000 & Petco in 2004. A Google search tells me there have been 6 inside-the-park-homers at AT&T -- 7 if you count Ichiro's in the All Star Game. Not sure about Petco.

Speaking of inside-the-park homeruns, here's a record that will never be broken, even if MLB is still being played a billion years from now: on July 12, 1897, Tom McCreery hit 3 inside-the-park homeruns in the same game.

I would imagine a park like old Yankee stadium before they brought the fences in or the Polo Grounds actually holds that record...given the vastness of their outfields.

Phillies Ed Delahanty is the only player ever to hit 4 HR in one game that included an inside the park HR (two actually).

Point is: typically the Phils' plate discipline blows, and there are no consequences for it. Their manager is supposed to be a hitting guru, and he doesn't understand the importance of instilling plate discipline at all costs.

Comparing expected BB% (ZiPS projection) vs. actual BB% so far:

ABOVE EXPECTED
MYoung 5.8/8.7
DYoung 3.6/5.7

HOLDING STEADY
Rollins 8.5/8.6
Revere 5.2/5.2

BELOW EXPECTED
Utley 10.4/9.0
Howard 10.1/7.6
Brown 8.9/6.3
Ruiz 9.0/3.8

Oddly enough, the three new guys in the organization (MYoung, _elm_n, and Revere) are all at or above their expected BB%, while four of the five guys that have been lifers in the Phils' organization have fallen off the cliff walk-wise this year. Dom's still learning how to be aggressive and selective at the same time, so I'll give him a pass for now.

The other three - Utley, Howard, and Ruiz - make me think back to this quote from RAJ:

“Domonic has allowed guys to work with him -- Steve Henderson, Wally Joyner, Chase [Utley],” Amaro said. “I wish some of our veterans would take advice like that. It doesn’t happen all the time. They get locked into their way of doing things. They know what they need to do to have success, but sometimes a new voice helps.”

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/amaro-talks-struggles-lee-zambrano-and-others

Zac green in top 20 for org after the season book it.

From sabr research:

To get a feel for how many IPH were hit and where, we conducted surveys of certain seasons and parks. A big boost was received early in the project by discovery of material left by the late Lee Allen at the Hall of Fame which included all the 360 IPH hit by Cincinnati players from 1900 to 1955. Those were the years when the Reds played in League Park, Redland Field and Crosley Field. This was essentially the same ballpark, but it was altered considerably over the years. This was a haven for IPH in the early years of this century, particularly in 1901 when 50 IPH were hit there by home and visiting clubs. That was a very high figure which has not been duplicated at any other park in one season. Sam Crawford, the great triple hitter, extended himself and hit 12 IPH (out of total of 16 homers) that season, which is a record.

So yeah...

http://research.sabr.org/journals/inside-the-park-home-runs

What if he had said, instead, "I don't care about getting on base; I care about production." Would anybody seriously believe he didn't understand that getting on base is a pretty good idea if you're trying to score runs? Is that really what you believe, NEPP, that Ruben Amaro does not understand that a team stands a better chance of scoring runs if they have men on base, than if they don't? Because if you accept that he understands this, then he has to value walks to some degree, because walks put people on base without recording an out. He is simply using imprecise language to express his feeling that getting on base, without having those runs driven in, is worthless. This is correct, but shortsighted. He fails to take a long view of things in that, in the long run, getting on base is directly related to score runs.

What the quote above indicates to me is that Ruben Amaro does not ascribe to sabermetrics, not that he doesn't understand what's valuable in baseball. It's only on the assumption that sabermetrics as currently espoused represented the best expression of what is valuable in baseball, that one could argue that failing to understand it equals failing to understand what is valuable in baseball.

He probably undervalues walks, if it needs to be said.

bap - Never say never.

I would say that it's more likely that Coors has more IPHRs than Petco because it's bigger and has more space.

Of course any OF that has Delmon Young playing in it is more likely too.

Well, so I had meant in any given season, rather than over the life of a stadium - though I obviously failed to say as much.

I just figured it was pretty obvious that stadiums which were open for 30 years are more likely to have higher counting stats in any given category than ones open for about a decade.

AT&T is also a fairly small field. It's hard to hit it out there because of the generally dry air, being low to sea level, and being relatively cool in the Summer, not because the walls are distant.

i dont know what screams 'thehook' more in that post:

The misspelled player name.
The random statement about a prospect.
The overreaction to small sample sizes.
The complete void of coherent sentence structure

The field to look for IPHRs is Comerica in Detroit.

*** that really what you believe, NEPP, that Ruben Amaro does not understand that a team stands a better chance of scoring runs if they have men on base, than if they don't? ***

Given several of his roster moves and comments, I do seriously believe that Rube values things like HRs and AVG far more than OBP and BB. I think Rube is stuck in the 1970s when it comes to statistical analysis and player evaluation and it shows in his decision making process and constant comments about scouting and an overall disdain towards sabermetrics.

It surprises me that this is even a discussion.

For clarity, let me expand on this point that Amaro "fails to take a long view of things in that, in the long run, getting on base is directly related to score runs."

Amaro seems to be implying he believes that driving in runs is a separate process from getting men on base, whereas sabermetricians would claim (with greater merit, in my view) that they are NOT separate processes.

Some might even argue that not making out is a more desired skill than making out.

@lorecore: Would you have same the same thing about Hamels after eight games this season, that he leads the league because he doesn't throw pitches near the strike zone? One has nothing to do with the other over a short sample (and we're still in June).

Last night was a large anomaly for the Phils. There have been PLENTY of occasions where they're facing a pitcher with control issues who they nevertheless hack at.

NEPP-- hit it right on the head at 1158. It's why Production™ became a thing. It's truly how the organization is run. All they care about are the numbers on the back of the baseball card (even if the bulk of them are from 3-7 years ago).

bittel: Ruben Amaro defended his Delmon Young signing by stating that he matched the offensive year of Carlos Ruiz in 2012, citing their similar RBI totals that year.

But that's probably just a public-relations comment. If he believes that, then he'd destroy a team under his management in a single year.

bittel: Ruben Amaro defended his Delmon Young signing by stating that he matched the offensive year of Carlos Ruiz in 2012, citing their similar RBI totals that year.

Posted by: lorecore

~~~

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

It's not that the wall is deep in front of McCovey's. It's that it's high and made of brick, leading to balls that bounce farther and more unpredictably than a lot of other similar walls (such as the Green Monster, say), while also being deeper than most other such tall ones (such as in Minute Maid).

I don't think this argument is that far apart. bittel is arguing that Amaro values the guys who drive the runners in, without factoring in the guys who get on base to be driven in. Its nuance.

Fact of the matter is that the GM of a baseball team should take everything into consideration when making decisions and not just one facet of a player's game. That's the biggest gripe people have with his decisions.

bittel: Yes, Cole Hamels led the league in walks after 8 games because he was throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone.

Does that not make sense to you? Do you instead think the opposing teams just had "good approaches" to him in those 8 games?

Last night Marquis was missing so often and so poorly, that the Phils had to walk. They had the same approach they always do. Our freaking #8 hitter swung at a 3-0 pitch in the 2nd inning!

But that's probably just a public-relations comment. If he believes that, then he'd destroy a team under his management in a single year.

Posted by: bittel


~~~


Delmon Young immediately became our everyday RF. He believes it.

Anecdotal, but I do remember in their back-to-back 4 pitch walks Howard and Brown not swinging at some borderline pitches which I normally would expect them to (and make weak contact).

"It's clear that the statistical analysis used by many in baseball is flawed. RBI for instance, misses the mark, as it does not truly value the philosophy of production. A more accurate measure, of course, would be RHI - runs hit in. You can't hit in runs if you don't hit. And you don't hit if you don't swing."

-- from "Zen Production: Wisdom for General Managers" R. A. Marrow, II

I'm with lore. The Hook is Eskin

Anecdotal, but I do remember in their back-to-back 4 pitch walks Howard and Brown not swinging at some borderline pitches which I normally would expect them to (and make weak contact).

Posted by: Cyclic
********
Precisely my point. This was not some crazy wild pitcher that the Phils just COULDN'T swing at. He was wild, but plenty of others have been too. Utley and Howard were both struck out by the guy on terrible 3-2 pitches, you'll recall. He did throw SOME strikes. But yeah, he could have walked 10 men if they let him.

Same thing applies to other pitchers they've faced.

@lorecore: Hamels wasn't all over the place in the way you're contending Marquis was. Hamels was missing by very small amounts, something that's probably already correcting itself. My main point is that the approach taken to Marquis, exemplified in the extremely anomalous back-to-back 4-pitch walks with RISP by Brown and Howard, is the approach that needs to be taken more regularly, because that's how this team is often pitched. Last night, yeah, it may have been a bit of a function of Marquis gone wild. With other pitchers, the slop tossed up there is by design.

I'm starting to believe there is something to be said for the baseball nerd GM's like Theo.
They get where they are by understanding the science of the game.
Ruben took off his player jersey one day and was in the front office the next.
He never paid those kind of analytical dues starting near the top.
He still sees himself as one of the players who can reward his fellow players with contracts.
It will be interesting to see which of the core players goes first. My vote is for Rollins if only to change the team chemistry. I dont see Galvis or anyone else being able to replace even this diminished version of Rollins as a player but the attitude needs adjusting on this team.

Unexpected: Michael Young is slugging 30 points higher than Jimmy Rollins.

I'm starting to wonder if Jimmy is going to make it to 200 HRs this year. He's been sitting at 197 for quite a while now.

Here is an offbeat question but who does everyone thinks is the best baseball writer in town?
It could be a writer that covers other sports too as long as they are local.

bittel: "that's how this team is often pitched"

No it is not. In fact, the Phillies haven't had consecutive 4 pitch unintentional walks this entire season until last night.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/event_finder.cgi?type=b#gotresults&year=2013&year_to=2013&divisory=1&from=button&type=b&team_id=PHI&event=modBB&out_type=&criteria1=ball_strike_count---3-0---3%400_Count---count&ajax=1&submitter=1

Here's why debates with you stretch on for hours/days: I go to get facts and evidence to back up my posts, while you refute them with general views off the top of your head with no basis other than what you think you saw in the last 24 hours.

bittel: I think what lorecore is trying to say is: you're confusing cause and effect. They didn't walk more against Marquis because his wildness caused them to take a new approach. They walked more because many of his pitches were so far out of the strike zone that even a major league hitter with a bad approach couldn't have been fooled into swinging at them.

There are at least a couple of posters on BL that always seem to back each other up instantly.
They have different handles but are the same guy.
Just hoping there are more than 3 or 4 individuals posting on this site under multiple handles...

bittel - Let me get this straight...you ask for "one instance" where Amaro said he doesn't care about walks, it is provided to you, and you then read into the statement claiming that it doesn't mean what he said and instead means something very different...this is starting to remind me of the "JRoll is slow" meme you pushed while constantly moving the goalposts as to what YOU consider slow.

bap: i guess we need to argue for another 3-4 consecutive months to hide up our true identity as the same person.

I don't know who this helps...

Chris in VT: please pay attention. I asked for a single instance in which a player was benched or played less because they walked, not an instance of Amaro saying something which has been plainly (in my view) misinterpreted here.

Understand? Please provide the single instance where a Phillie under Amaro was benched/affected negatively when he walked too much. Thanks.

@b_a_p: I understood what he was saying. What I'm saying is, it's not that clear cut. As I think I made quite clear above.

Lorecore: YOU ARE MAKING MY POINT. But keep at it, bro. My point is: their approach last night was different than usual. Do you get it? Pressed for a reason as to why, I'd say the horrifying loss they had the night before focused them more than usual. I have no doubt you and others will disagree with this, as a matter of the ideology to which you hold. But don't try to contend I'm obfuscating or not making a clear point when it's pretty clear what I mean.

Yeah those were some serious acrobatics by bittel explaining what Amaro really meant when he said he didn't care about walks.

Sabermetric analysis isn't "for nerds" or some silly trend that will pass with time...it's the first effort to actually apply advanced statistical analysis to baseball in a way that helps determine the best way to produce the desired outcome. It is not a predictive tool, really, and therefore needs to be used in conjunction with effective scouting to provide your team with the best possible information to make decisions. Why anyone would dismiss the ability to have better information seems preposterous.

The best teams all use it in some fashion or another, so I honestly don't know what the debate is still about. It isn't perfect. It isn't science. But neither is scouting, as we've seen forever. It's a useful tool that can be used to increase your chances of making correct decisions.

I would be just as scared by a manager/GM who cared only about sabermetrics.

I see some very interesting moving of the goalposts going on here in the Amaro Walking argument.

The best teams seem to take the best from sabermetrics and scouting...at least from the outside looking in.

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