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Monday, June 17, 2013

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Whoa wait a minute. I've been told Revere is a terrible baseball player and shouldn't even be in the major leagues.

No-D returns to the lineup.

The next time the Phils sign one of these franchise millstones, can we all agree not to invoke the "he's a cheap signing, they'll just dump him if he sucks, no harm done" argument?

MG/lorecore: You are both making good cases for bad management but not against the save stat. A team doesn't have to pay a guy a ton of money to close. Some teams do, some don't.

The Phillies are also paying ~73 million to their starting rotation- 20 of which belongs to a guy that is on the DL. Why is that not hurting us in bringing in bullpen arms? It isn't just 13 million to the closer.

The Phillies have faced the least LH Starters in the entire NL, and by a healthy margin as well.

So the fact that Mayberry and Frandsen are giving this team good contributions this season so far is pretty amazing.

On the TV contract thing:

If I were with the Phillies management, I would go into negotiations with a definitive plan.

Go to Comcast and propose a partnership with them. You want the TCN (The Comcast Network) channel to be rechristened "The Phillies Network." The channel will now be home to Phillies clubhouse, pre and post game stuff, and then also try to get coverage (not sure how that all works) to show the minor league affiliate games on the channel as well. CSN becomes home to the shows that populate TCN and they can fall back on their agreement with The Fight Network to show MMA and wrestling stuff in the time periods where they would normally show the Phillies. Also, allow them access to a handful of Phillies games over the course of the season.

The real carrot though is the part ownership of the channel. That way- whatever Comcast loses by having the Phillies off CSN is boosted by having a partial stake in the new channel.

Then the Phillies get to work buying programming for the new channel to buttress the Phillies coverage.

Phillies have seen 12 LH Starters, NL average is 21.

Horst to DL, room for Lannan.

tti: won't disagree, its not "saves" fault that the Phillies make terrible decision, but as long as the Phillies use the stat as a reason why they make stupid decisions - both in game and front office - I can't help but to get pist off at the stat itself.

Id rather see Frandsen @ 2 because he at least has pop in his bat unlike Young.

Revere
Frandsen
Rollins
Brown
Mayberry
Howard
Young
Q

The save statistic is kind of like the quality start. It tells you if your pitcher adequately carried out his most basic job requirement. But also like the quality start, it completely lacks nuance. A closer who comes in with a 3-run lead & gives up 2 runs is treated the same way as a closer who came in with a 1-run lead & pitched a 1-2-3 inning.

And both saves & QSs are only meaningful as a percentage of overall opportunities. 37 saves sounds impressive, but if the guy has 11 blown saves to go with those 37 saves, it isn't so impressive anymore.

One correction on my tv contract post: CSN shows events associated with Go Fight Live, not The Fight Network.

TTI: I'm with you on the TV talks. Right now, getting a "Phillies Network" as a separate revenue entity is the loophole in MLB. That money is off the books under revenue sharing, so the Phillies get to keep it all.

The TV money "bubble" seems pretty volatile though, so who knows what happens by 2015 with how teams are able to handle their TV rights.

On trading Lee: I think there is huge value in possibly sending him somewhere because the acquiring team is getting an Ace starter for 3 seasons.

lorecore: That is why the Philies should be looking to negotiate sooner rather than later. Like before next season kicks off.

That's one way to get rid of Horst. How much do you want to bet he was hurt from almost the start of the season or even in ST yet refused to stay everything?

bap: I would agree with your analogy if managers allowed their starters to throw 120 pitches if needed to get through that 6th inning, and left them in even though they had the bases loaded in the 6th and were entirely gassed, but wanted them to get the QS.

QS is a much better stat because of its descriptive criterion and it doesn't a decent job of whether or not a starter is pitching fairly well.

Save doesn't do nearly as good of a job because a pitcher could have a ton of 2-3 run saves.

It's a crap stat and I don't have time to go back and prove it has very little descriptive value. If a stat doesn't meet that basic criterion, it stinks.

@MG With how they been handling injuries the past few years, they probably knew he was hurt and just let him try to pitch thru it to work it out.

MG: I bet the opposite, that Horst is a phantom DL move while the team tries to decide which of the lefties: Savery Horst or Diekman (or bastardo at this point) should be sent down.

Bastardo is like Howard, he won't be moved at all.

Horst needs time off all right. Not for his phantom elbow, but to look into a new career.

Re "huge value" and "getting an Ace starter for 3 seasons."


Coincidentally, that was the upside with Roy Halladay's deal too, was it not? The number of people who assume that a pitcher who is an ace at age 34 is still going to be an ace at age 35 and 36 are getting smaller every day.

There was always concern about Roy because of the workload he has had over the years. Lee really hasn't had that.

The Phillies hitters have all received new baseball caps. Seems they have worn out the bills on their old ones from tipping their hats to the opposing pitcher so often.

Howard's not the power hitter we're paying for, but his numbers for HR, RBI and OPS are not the worst among first baseman. It seems that he is not the only one fielding this position for his team that is not doing that great.

(Although the teams that are contending do have higher OPS, for example, from their first basemen than we do.)

I wonder whether Howard will have a second-half surge, whether he will ever carry the team for a time?

Dragon: Laughed aloud at yours of 4:44. Nice work.

Quick, close the barn door so that the Horst can't get back in!

GBrettfan: I feel like the second-half surge he's known for won't happen if he's continually trotted out there now when there is clearly something wrong with his leg. If he actually isn't injured then we are in for more of the same.

Tipping my hat to Dragon.

Lee strikes me as the kind of guy who could still be really good even into his late 30s, because he has pinpoint control & does not rely on overpowering stuff to get hitters out. But I thought the same thing about Halladay.

"Horst needs time off all right. Not for his phantom elbow, but to look into a new career."

Would you like fries with that?

Hey, amigos! With a roster spot opening up, yours truly will be featuring his stellar defense on the field, and his studly bat in the lineup. Count on it!

Really. Most of them need to expand their repertoire by tipping their caps for other teams.

And Manuel needs to tip a sombrero in Yucatan.

And Amaro needs to tip off the end of a cruise ship into shark infested waters.

"Tonight they'll face Dan Haren, who has a 5.70 ERA, has allowed 11.3 hits per nine and 17 homers in 72 2/3 innings. He's struggled with Washington, to say the least. Many expected him to find success in the NL, but back problems and just overall decline has rendered him a back-end starter. He's not the same guy with the devastating splitter."

Fear not. We will be tipping our (brand new) caps to Dan.

"Horst has allowed 47 baserunners in 26 innings this season. The man needs some time off."

How about several million years? Not before the heat death of the universe?

I don't believe in Phillies, I just believe in me.

"And Amaro needs to tip off the end of a cruise ship into shark infested waters."

Nice try, but sharks are not carrion eaters...

Hope the philles use non throwing arms tonight. After tipping the cap so much, and wouldn't want elbow strains.

I agree that if anyone can reMaddux, it could be Cliff Lee. I'm rooting for that for sure. But the question is: What GM will bet against history on it in order to deliver "huge value" in return?

Difficulty level: Ruben Amaro, Jr. can't trade with himself.

And Ed Wade no longer has a job as a GM.

Does anyone remember if Lee was injured in 07 or just ineffective? Only had 97 IP that year and a bad record. His career average in 225 IP and his max was 231 IP, so he shouldn't be in ordinarily predisposed to injury as he gets older.

Lee was demoted to the minors that year. He pitched another 48 innings in AA and AAA that year.

That's what i thought NEPP. I also could've just scrolled to "minors" on BR, but apparently I'm brain dead. LOL

If Rube is canned, they will probably bring Wade back to replace him :)

We have a new misspelled pitcher to join Coal Hammels and Roy Holliday in the rotation - Jon Lannon. Kyle Kendricks is a sometimes participant.

I see everyone has covered the Horst phantom DL trip already. Nice work.

The only reason it doesn't seem like Revere is doing well is because people with their heads up their asses have been bitching about him for a month and a half without actually looking at the numbers.

I think it will take a lot longer than 15 days to transplant a decent arm on to Horst.

It also doesnt help that even at his best, Revere is never going to drive the ball but rather be a .300 hitting singles guy who steals bases at a good clip.


He was and is in a no-win situation with this team because he was one of the "big" moves of the winter and he's replacing Victorino who was a very very good CF for half a decade and who was a fan favorite.

Also, something, something first impressions and all that.


MICHAEL AMARO: "So the next day, my father went to see Horst; only this time with Dallas Green. An' within an hour, he signed his own unconditional release.

KAY: "How'd he do that?"

MICHAEL: My father made him an offer he couldn't refuse.


From the USA TODAY article about rookie GM Ruben Amaro JR.
"Rookie GM Ruben Amaro Jr. a mover that's shaking Philly"

And it is why on July 29, he traded four prospects to the Cleveland Indians for left-hander Cliff Lee, giving the Phillies the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner for their playoff push.

With one move, the rookie GM showed a veteran clubhouse that second-best is not acceptable.

"He knew we needed another starter, and he gets us the defending Cy Young award winner without giving up anyone off our 25-man roster," says Cole Hamels, last year's World Series MVP. "You kidding? Everything he has touched has worked.

"That meant so much to us. Here he is, a new GM, and he showed just how much he wants to win. It's just like (George) Steinbrenner and the Yankees. We're not just satisfied with one, we want to win this thing every year.

"Getting someone like Cliff motivates everyone. Our fans can feel it. They want that swagger. We just need to get going. They sure don't want to see us do a Mets collapse."

NEPP- good post and i think I mentioned some of those things while you were on vacation.

The problem I have is with people that think they should just move on from him and go in another direction. If he keeps producing like he did last year (or better yet, like he has the last seven weeks), he is a cheap option that gives them plus defense and base running for the next 3-4 years. He's exactly the type of player they should be aiming to keep around.

People that think he should be dumped or they should give up on him are just proving they have no better of an idea how to run a team than Amaro.

"The only reason it doesn't seem like Revere is doing well is because people with their heads up their asses have been bitching about him for a month and a half without actually looking at the numbers."

It's funny that you keep accusing all the Ben Revere critics of not looking at his numbers, when you are actually the one who insists on throwing out more than 40% of his PAs as if they never happened.

I have to admit I'm coming around on Revere...And I have been very critical of him since Mid-April. But he needs to keep up this pace for the rest of the season just to overcome the AWFUL first month he had.


"You kidding? Everything he has touched has worked. Cole
Well said cole well said.

MORE FROM THE ABOVE REFERENCED STORY

Amaro's ovation

Amaro got off the team bus in Phoenix, strolled into the visitor's clubhouse, and heard a rousing applause.

He looked around the room.

They were cheering for him.

"That was a little embarrassing," he says.

It was the Phillies' way of showing their appreciation. Amaro had acquired Lee, 22-3 last year, and outfielder Ben Francisco, for four prospects — Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson and Jason Knapp — without ruining the farm system.

"You know what, it's about time," shortstop Jimmy Rollins says. "I've been here nine years and we've never gotten a Grade-A pitcher. We'd get a piece here and there, but not the big one. I know it caught me by surprise."

The day before the trade, Rollins says, Amaro approached him.

"Who do you want?" Amaro asked.

"Roy," Rollins said, referring to Roy Halladay, whom the Toronto Blue Jays shopped before the deadline.

Amaro didn't say a word, so Rollins said, "OK, what's Plan B."

Amaro: "There is no Plan B."

"So we make that trade, and I walk right up to Ruben and I said, 'Really?' " Rollins says. "Really now."

Lee actually was Plan A. The Phillies never had any intention of trading rookie left-hander J.A. Happ. They didn't want to part with pitching prospect Kyle Drabek. The Phillies got Lee without giving up either one.

"They got as serious as anybody early on," says Cleveland general manager Mark Shapiro. "Really, they got as serious as soon as we got serious about trading him. I got the sense Ruben wanted Cliff pretty badly."

So did the guys in the clubhouse.

"When we saw the front office walk out of a meeting the night before, not trying to smile," says Phillies closer Brad Lidge, "we knew something good had just happened. I think right there Ruben proved he wasn't going to be complacent with just a good team. They want to establish a legacy."

Davey Johnson: "Charlie and I are crying on each others shoulder over our offenses"

Thank god we didnt trade Happ and Drabek for Halladay back in 2009...that would have sucked.

LAST ONE

"You can see his appetite for continued success," Ibanez says. "When he came to see me last winter, he never talked about what happened. He talked about what would happen, how they were going to get better.

"The first words out of his mouth were character. I was talking to other clubs at the time, but after I got talking to Ruben, it was obvious this was a place I wanted to be. His sincerity sold me.

"And you know what, he was right about everything."

Back When Ruben Was King

BAP- just a week ago you actually tried to justify throwing out his entire 2011 season as an anomaly because of his bad April.

You are truly a dope. The guy had a bad month. Get over it.

St. Lannan

Dear Philadelphia Phillies Batters:

Every morning when we get up, we thank God for you, and continue throughout the day expressing deep gratitude for the creation of you and Mr. Amaro.

As you know, the livelihood of our families depends on our reaching contract negotiations with our respective owners that provide lavishly for the needs of our wives and children. Because those negotiations rely so heavily on the statistics we are able to compile against big league players, there is always some doubt as to what we will be able to receive.

Thanks to your efforts (and those, of course, of the Mets), we will be able to offer to our children a much, much better future. Your consideration, though seldom noted with as much gratitude by your local press and fans, is greatly appreciated.

Thank you so much for all that you do. May we continue to have a long and bountiful future together.

Sincerely,

it's great to be home. i'm looking for some attytood tonight.

"BAP- just a week ago you actually tried to justify throwing out his entire 2011 season as an anomaly because of his bad April."

I didn't try to "justify" it. I said: let's see him do it again before I'll believe it wasn't an anomaly. After all, as it stands right now, that .294 season is surrounded by two .270 seasons.

Successfully sold off two sets of tickets from this series for face value. Mission Accomplished.

looking over ashburn's stats what pops out is that he averaged just 43 rbi's/year. in his 1958 batting champion year (.350), he had just 33 while having a .881 ops. yet he often led the league in runs scored. so whitey's job was not knocking them in but rather, getting on base. how many rbi's do we expect from ben?

leadoff hitters dont tend to get a ton of RBI...thus Whitey didn't get many.

sorry. ritchie never led the league in runs scored. but he was consistently in the top 10.

I expect Production™ from Ben.

A 4-pitch walk. What a portent of luck.

Make up your mind, ump!

If he got help from the 2nd base ump, that's ok. Thought at first he was swayed by Zimmerman.

I hope he did hit him, since he acted like it did.

here we go...

Good thing Lannan's back.

Who will be the next to hit a HR... Ben Revere or Ryan Howard?

Okay, Jroll, time to pop up.

I'd put money on Revere at this point.

Is it possible that MYoung is slower than DYoung?

This team is on the fringe of a disaster in the next week or so if they keep dropping games.

"These guys are fouling a lot of pitches off, running his pitch count up quick"

Things you'll never hear said about the Phillies' offense

whitey averaged 2 home runs/year. and famously hit 2 in one game. it's interesting that he hit none in his 2 years as a cub (60-61). and then hit 7 (had never hit more than 4) as a met in his final year.

Cyclic - The Phillies did that for the first two games in Colorado. The result was a decent offensive performance in both games. You would think they'd learn from it.

He was a rookie in 2011 in his age 22-23 season. And this season is 2.5 months old. It's entirely possible he'll end the year a .270 hitter, but if he continues hitting like he has for a majority of the season, he'll be near a .300 hitter.

I know you aren't this clueless, but for the people here that actually feed into the dumb stuff that you say, at least try to provide context. I believe in you that you can do it.

Wow, Howard hit a HR!!!!

Catching up to Big Z now.

the girl got her birthday present. uppa decka.

WHAT IS THAT

I'd sign him to a new extension.

Albert Ross. I saw it.....Killed my stroking rhythm!

Gonna have to wipe up for now and put away the Kleenex

That was nice!

He still has some power left.

Alright, as long as there's the fake "Jack" poster, I'm not going to bother.

Howard has still got a shot at a 20/0 season.

That home run makes you wonder if Howard can regain his power. For a while there it looked like he would never hit one that far again in his career.

that was a blast from the past. manuel said he has been swinging better the last few days.

That was quite a catch by Zimmerman. Darn it.

Please please please let that be the start of a vintage Howard "locked in" phase. (it won't be)

the gameday photo of werth is hilarious. i've never seen him with a beard that long.

bullit: Have you seen the Whitey video? He laughed about being voted MVP on the worst team in MLB history. The Mets gave him a new Caddy and a fishing boat & trailer on the last day of the season. The Caddy broke down driving home to Nebraska, and the boat sank the first time he put it in the water.

At least ill still have the memories of Jen Utley's sweet patote and my fat ugly wife and if course, bangin my hot mom.

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