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Friday, June 07, 2013

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This guy is a total bust.

At this point do we think Mayberry is going to play everyday? CF and RF filling in for Young and Revere? That seems to be the right course of action right? If Brown can start swiping bags now too then this guy is going to be something else. That's the one tool he has yet to unveil and I was happy to see it last night.

As far as the Crawford pick I don't know what to think. The class was thin but at the same time I feel like they have so many Crawford-like players in the system. I would have liked to see them go after a corner infielder or outfielder but the 2 presumably best ones were off the board before their pick (Smith and Peterson).

Who else is a Crawford like player in the system? Yes, Crawford is raw but he is unlike a typical Phillies "toolsy" pick.

Look Joe, Michael Martinez can play any of the positions on the field and Godwilling Crawford can give us what Martinez and W Valdez can.

True Red, he's not your typical "toolsy" pick. I just feel like his bat could fall flat as he tries to climb the ranks and then you are stuck with Freddy Galvis.

"Crawford is raw but he is unlike a typical Phillies "toolsy" pick."

Yes and no. He has an identifiable skill, so I suppose that's progress, as compared to guys like Hewitt & Golson. But his hitting may be much like Hewitt and Golson's.

As if we needed any reminders on how great it has been to have Rollins for all this time this Crawford pick might serve as another one.

There is some confusion on people's opinion on Phillies draft picks- which is no surprise considering who is the one muddying the argument. So let's try this:

The point is not that the Phillies have drafted toolsy guys high in the draft. Lots of players have tools of one kind or another. But the thing with draft picks is that you want them to have tools that are seemingly projectible. What the Phillies have done (certainly not all the time) is draft guys who are toolsy athletes. The common theme is "If they develop those tools they will be awesome." The idea is they don't do anything particularly well, but they have the capacity to do everything well.

In a guy like Crawford, he has tools but they are easily identifiable. He can field extremely well. So he has a clearly defined tool that you can build on.

To put it in a different scenario- you have two builders, one is given a bunch of nails, boards, and a hammer and told "Build a cabinet." The other is given all the same things, told the same thing but is given the instruction that the cabinet should be 4 feet high. The second person is going to have a little easier time because they have some parameter of what they need to accomplish. The Phillies too often draft the guys who would fall into the first category. They have the tools but there is no real place to start with them.

"One day I hope to be on the big squad and walking in my hero's (Eric Brunlett) footsteps."

JP quote from last night's interview.

Keith Law, before the draft: "Crawford is the only shortstop in the draft class who has a better than even chance to stay at the position long-term, even though he's raw in several areas of the game and may be a slow developer in the minors.”

Keith Law, (as I predict) after his draft by the Phillies: "Crawford is the weakest middle infielder in a weak draft. He probably should have gone in the sixth or seventh round. His bumping up to the first round by Philadelphia, while not surprising, will further diminish what is the worst minor league system ever in organized, or unorganized, baseball. Crawford will be yet another joke who fails with a failure of a club." [Or something like that.]

Way to go Chris Perez! moron

Neither Golson or Hewitt projected as SS in the majors.

As long as Perez didnt get a box from the place if Florida, he should be cool.

Keith Law hates us.

A no-hit middle infield project in the 1st round and a guy that projects as a back-up catcher in the 2nd? That not hot.

Baseball draft picks are and should be BPA 100% of the time, you do not EVER draft for need. If Crawford was the BPA according to the Phillies, he was the right pick. Based on pre-draft rankings, Crawford was slotted to be picked around then, so this pick should be considered appropriate. End of discussion.

Ok, so instead of a "raw, toolsy" player, the Phillies got just a "raw" player. I suppose that's progress.

I'm fine with the pick, but I've also largely been against the myth that the Phillies have failed due to only picking "raw, toolsy" players.

I just find it odd that people who disliked the Phils drafts in the past would suddenly like this pick. TTI's distinction is fair and meaningful, but like BAP said, you still have a player who is going to take years to determine if his bat can even play against professional pitching.

I'm warming up to the Knapp pick a little. Not a bad thing to have a catching prospect who's bat is advanced. Can always be moved.

Yeah I agree on Knapp. He could turn into that corner OF or 1B bat.

I don't think it was a bad pick, though it'd be nice if the Phillies could draft some guys who's hit tool is actually considered a strength rather than a question mark. I do wish toolsy outfielder Austin Wilson (Stanford!!) would have fallen 4 more picks in the 2nd to the Phillies.

I hope Crarford can outperform his 2012 and 2011 counterparts.

2012 #1 Pick Shane Watson: 3-6 6.35 ERA 1.43 WHIP in 53 IP, all in a pretty dreadful offensive league too. His 11 HR allowed are easily the most in the entire SAL. For context, the entire lakewood offense has combined for 23 HR in 58 games.

2011 #1 Pick Larry Greene Jr: .185/.316/.246 in 155 PA, with 0 HR as a kid drafted for his "raw" power. I'd say 2 career HR in 458 professional PA is an interesting definition of "raw".

I am liking that Gavin Floyd pick.

Knapp isn't going to hit enough to move to 1st or OF. And he actually has a strong arm. I read somewhere that he threw out 65% of opposing base runners this year. I also read that he has trouble blocking pitches. Sounds a lot like Erik Kratz, with better batting average but less power.

The fake names in the signature schtick isn't funny.

Despite adding Crawford to the stable, I really hope Quinn sticks at short. He seems to be the more likely player to become a star.

Did your mother really name you Bedrosian's Beard? I suppose you are seeing more and more names with apostrophes in them these days.

No, but had it legally changed.

(I meant the Michael Martinez poster, the evil ed wade, who only posts like he's ed wade, etc.

"The fake names in the signature schtick isn't funny."

It can be funny if it's done well (which it usually isn't). The Mini-Mart fake name schtick is pretty amusing.

My name is really Ed Wade. Try living with it, Mr. Beard.

jbird: agreed. Has his OBP up to .340 after a horrid start. The 5 HR is actually a nice little surprise too, especially in the SAL like I was just saying about Watson/Greene.

lorecore: Greene was ridiculously raw from the backwoods of Georgia, never faced real competition. He really shouldn't be in Lakewood. He's only there until the short-season leagues begin play. He'll be back at Williamsport or in the GCL. Way, way too early to conclude he won't develop his power tool.

lore - Watson is trying to develop a changeup. He's had a few outings where he was good, a few where he was ok and a few absolute horrid starts. I'm wondering if they will send him to Williamsport when short season ball opens up.

Quinn looks like he can hit, but he doesn't seem to have made any progress defensively. I'm thinking they'll give him one more year at shortstop and, if he still stinks, they'll probably move him to CF, where he should still have plenty of value.

Every report I have seen on Larry Greene at some point brings up his conditioning and work ethic (or lack of it).

Again for an organization that emphasizes scouting you think they would have been able to get a better handle on this issue which is one of the areas where you need to try to get a handle on something that isn't readily quantifiable.

Love how you guys know what the new picks will be like in 5 years. Wish I owned a club so I could hire you to do my scouting.
Ozzie,good glove no bat,never be a MLB ss.

BedBeard,
The fake names in the signature schtick AREN'T funny.

I'd like to read a report on Quinn's defense or see it in person. I haven't really heard much other than what I've seen in the box score and that has been abysmal.

My understanding of the critique of recent Phillies' draft choices is that the front office has had a penchant for drafting athletes possessing impressive tools but little in the way of baseball skills, in the belief that skills are teachable while tools are innate. Which isn't a bad idea, so long as you've got the institutional infrastructure to convey those skills. Whether the Phils do remains a very open question.

Crawford already has at least one identifiable baseball skill: His glove. And, if the scouts are right that he can stick at SS, it's a fairly impressive skill at that. While few folks might be enamored with the idea that our first-round pick's upside is Freddy Galvis v2.0, he's certainly not the sort of skill-light, tools-heavy athlete that is a cliche around Beerleaguer.

A lot of Shortstop prospects rack up the errors though. I suppose a scout would be able to differentiate between who will overcome the fielding problems and who needs to be moved.

clout: i agree its way early on greene, but the 2 HR in over 450 PA is just hard to understand. It's not like he's just overmatched and can't hit at all - he's got plenty of hits and very good BB%.

juums: Good post. There's no comparison between Galvis' bat and Crawford's. Even if Crawford doesn't reach his potential on offense, his bat will still be better than Galvis'.

And you can believe clout opinion on everything because....wait a sec...why?

Apropos of nothing, I found myself watching Baseball Tonight at like 2:00 a.m. last night. They were talking about RBIs and one of the guys (I can't remember who) said, "RBIs are so context dependent. No GM uses them as an evaluation tool anymore. They're looking at things like on-base percentage." I'll leave it to the peanut gallery to find the appropriate punch line.

Don't listen to my son. He is a little sissy boy.

bap: At the very beginning of the broadcast, Wheels was talking about the lineup configuration, and said that Charlie really liked MYoung's OBP and thats why he was the choice to leadoff.

So according to Wheels, after 8 and half years since being with the Phillies, all of sudden Charlie wanted to get his best OBP into the leadoff spot. Revelation!

I post as cloyd and have for years but its ok its actually my first name

actually... now that i think about it:

Was that possibly the first game in Manuel's history with the Phillies that the #1 OBP player batted leadoff?

Just a quick glance at lineups from 2005-2013, and i think the only real shot anyone had was when Kenny Lofton had a .390 OBP in 2005 and led off a few times.

No BAP, we ain't touching that one. Fight your own fights.

I hate all nicknames.
Go to hell peanuts

lorecore: Funny you should say that. When I saw the lineup, I said, "Holy Cow, Charlie discovered Baseball Musings lineup analyzer!"

I guess Ed Wade googling stuff is finally paying off for the franchise.

Tommy Joseph off the DL, hasn't played since May 4th, concussion. Assigned to Clearwater, then back to AAA.

I actually like Michael Young in the leadoff spot. Even if his walk rate declines to career norms, his batting average should (hopefully) increase, keeping his OBP around .330 or better. On this team, that qualifies as fantastic. And if you hit him leadoff, it decreases the chance that he'll kill a rally with a DP.

I've been assured when we get to the playoffs, my name will be on the playoff roster. Take that, bitches!

BAP: agreed on MYoung in the leadoff spot, I actually suggested that weeks ago as half-joke/half-serious. I could see it sticking even with Revere in the lineup (batting 2nd).

Hitting Revere 2nd would sort of defeat the purpose of having a good hitter like Michael Young leadoff.

Revere, even when he's playing well, is not a good offensive player, and is as much a DP threat as Young despite his speed because he hits so many ground balls.

In a good lineup, he would be hitting 8th or 9th, no matter what.

"I hate all nicknames.
Go to hell peanuts"

Good call Termite.

BedBeard,
The fake names in the signature schtick AREN'T funny.

Posted by: Strunk & White
*******

Almost died laughing at that one.

I don't understand how Young can bat leadoff. He isn't even fast.

He's faster than Rollins. THat guy is slow

Again, my real name is a curse...

Rollins' elite speed had gone the same way as Howard's elite power.

I actually like Young hitting leadoff. That is some out of the box thinking I never expected from Charlie. He is one of a few guys on this team that can work a count and he can only hit singles so hitting him 2 or 3 is useless unless you want to get Wheels off with 1st to 3rd talk.

Did Jack just call Michael Young a good hitter?

While few folks might be enamored with the idea that our first-round pick's upside is Freddy Galvis v2.0

I wouldn't be surprised if Freddy Galvis' career ends up about the median of 16th overall picks.

bittel, it was funny - but I think it's wrong. The phrase "fake names in the signature" is essentially the modifier for the word "schtick." Take out the modifier, and the sentence reads, "The schtick isn't funny," which is correct.

Agreed?

bap - Knock, knock...

Ruben - Who's there?

bap - OBP.

Ruben - WTF is that?

Peanut gallery - .......

Phils finally take their classic toolsy athlete in the 3rd round.

Cord Sandberg, high school CF, recruit to play QB at Miss St.

Phils take SS Jan Hernandez, from Puerto Rico.

Good bat, athletic, power potential, may have to move to 3rd.

Who will be the first to rip the Cord?

I like the Phillies draft so far. Crawford could easily have been the "best player available" at their pick. He'll also likely sign above slot which I think accounts for the 2nd round pick which (while close to where some had him ranked) will likely sign a little below slot.

The two picks so far today are solid, and I especially like the Hernandez pick who's bat profiles above average at SS, but will play at 3B where he will likely end up.

Rube is psyched to restock the system, because remember that at the deadline: We're buyers, baby!

At one level, I sort of understand the rationale of spending high picks on "toolsy" players who, hopefully, will be able to play the key defensive positions where it's harder to find good bats. On the other hand, other than Dom Brown, the Phillies haven't exactly been doing a stellar job of finding those good bats to fill the other positions. And when they do find them, they move them through the minor league system at a snails pace, on the theory that they aren't very good prospects because all they can do is hit. Which leads, in turn, to said prospect being "old for his level" every step of the way, which leads, in turn, to his being deemed a non-prospect.

In other words, while it's ok to like players who are versatile & toolsy, the Phillies don't seem to grasp that the ability to hit is actually the most important tool of all. And when they accidentally stumble upon the occasional prospect who can hit, they rig the game against him because of his lack of complementary tools. After about 10 years of that pattern, it isn't terribly shocking that they have a major league team which can't hit.

Why rip Cord on a day he's flying high.

I like the Phils last two picks a lot (giant caveat that I, like everyone else here, have never seen these players in my life and am going off third-hand scouting reports).

Summary:

First round pick: J.P. Crawford, HS SS. Plus arm. Projectable defense at short. Some questions of hit tools. Average raw power.

Second round pick: Andrew Knapp, College C. Solid hit tools, projects to average power. Good arm. Will need to develop defensive (receiving) tools.

Third round pick: Cord Sandberg, HS OF. Body type like Josh Hamilton. Toolsy. Line drive hitter who projects to above average power. Runs well, should be solid defensively in OF.

Third round pick: Jan Hernandez, HS SS. Good bat speed which could project to above avg. power. Good hands, strong arm, but question about range that may force move to 3rd.

That said, Sandberg has a scholarship to play football and baseball at Miss St., so it's going to take some money to sign him away. I hope the Phils make the investment.

Of course you never know, but I assume the Phils have talked to him about that and have an inkling he'll sign. We'll see. Like what I hear about these guys so far.

Jack: Not just play football... but I believe it's to play QB.

Phils take Jake Sweaney, another two-sport high school athlete. WR in footbal, C in baseball.

Obviously, athlete. Nice bat potential. Hope to make him into a catcher, but possible another position.

The MLB scouting guy noted the last WR/C combo player he could remember was Neil Walker, who ended up at 2B for the Pirates.

The Phillies may have talked to Cord about it but trying to talk someone out of playing quarterback at an SEC school is going to be a hard sell.

Of course Mississippi State was hit with some minor sanctions today so who knows how that will play out.

"The Phillies may have talked to Cord about it but trying to talk someone out of playing quarterback at an SEC school is going to be a hard sell."

At the very least, they're going to have to pay him more than Mississippi State is offering.

I'll say it... Sweaney is now the most likely not to sign with the Phillies. He's more raw on the baseball side than Sandberg, the other 2-sport star we drafted.

Phils o/u 8 with Lee on the mound. Seems high, even accounting for the weak Brewers starter.

lorecore: Brewers crush lefties (highest OPS in the league against them). Vegas is assuming they score a few off Cliff. I agree.

Phils have been pretty good getting their top 3-4 picks to sign. Without knowing for sure, I would guess they're tracking record is among the top half of the league in those terms.

MIL vs LHP, #1 in NL: .274/.320/.435
PHI vs LHP, #4 in NL: .243/.314/.416

A weird stat...the brewers lead in the league in PA vs LHP at 759, while Phillies rank dead last at 516 PA.

"That is some out of the box thinking I never expected from Charlie"

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile...

MIL v LHP BABIP: .328
PHI v LHP BABIP: .284

Mini Mart vs xHP BABIP: .000

(okay, okay, I exaggerate somewhat)

Cord Sandberg
Iron pig butcher to the league
Toolsy player, stacker of K's

The idea that he is "raw" and could take until 2015 to hit a full-season level is more in the fact that he needs to develop physically...He's on the light side and needs to work on building up muscle to have the ability to drive the ball. He's already an advanced fielder and has a decent swing (from what I've read), but he's not going to be able to hold up to a full season until he physically fills out.

This is not a "toolsy" pick in the hated sense of the word here on Beerleaguer.

lorecore: Chicken or Egg question there.

Does Milwaukee have good numbers against LHP because of a (slightly) inflated BABIP, or do they have a (slightly) inflated BABIP because they're good hitters against LHP?

Personally, I don't think a .328 BABIP is out of line when you're talking about good matchups. We think BABIP generally evens out to a player's (and team's) expected level over time. But if a team has guys who can mash LHP, it's not crazy to expect them to have a BABIP like that against LHP. Right?

LH college pitcher from Oregon St in the 5th round. Sounds like a back of the rotation guy.

Phils have been pretty good getting their top 3-4 picks to sign.

lore, you state this as if it is some kind of positive. :)

Yeah, Ryan Howard is pretty lucky to have a career .330 BAbip against RHP. Oh wait.

Jack: yeah i agree that .328 is far from outrageous, and I don't have any BABIP factors like LD%/etc. to argue either way.

My main point was moreso that the Phillies' numbers vs LHP is up there with the big boys somehow, and that the BABIPs show they might be even closer going forward.

Wasn't Larry Anderson preemptively complaining last night that whichever ump was calling tonight's game never calls the inside strike and that gets Cliff Lee in trouble? I can't remember what LA was saying.

But when Cliff walked 6 in 2011, Gerry Davis was behind the plate, and he's not part of this crew.

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