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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

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More absolute analysis from Papelbon.

Prediction: Phillies score 10+ runs tonight.

Glutton for punishment but I like this matchup for the value at +110 for the Phils.

Marquis is still a bum too and a guy I can see the Phils having some success against tonight too.

Manny Machado: 35 doubles in the O's 78th game. There are some cool things happening in baseball, just not much in Philly.

prediction... ben revere inside the park homer tonight.

Prediction: 8th inning will improve with Adams out.

This offseason the Phillies medical staff cleared Adams this offseason, then took two DL trips and a bunch of days off, and a second opinion - before finding three tears in his shoulder.

The same offseason where they rejected a trade for a reliever because they thought he was an injury risk - who currently has made the 5th most appearances in baseball.

Marquis has a 3.59 ERA and 2/3 of his starts have been quality starts. SD is 11-4 in his starts.

Pretty good results this year for a bum. I wouldn't expect much more offense tonight than normal.

iceman: he is a bum. That's a 98 ERA+, with a 5.65 FIP, a .237 BABIP , and a 82% LOB.

lorecore w a nice reminder of the incompetence of the Phil's medical staff. Some really ought to be held accountable.

Of course there is the possibility that Adams was healthy in the medical examination and the tears did happen this season. So it wouldn't be that he signed damaged goods or erred in a second year just that unfortunately Adams had a second issue that popped up this year.

Either way it sucks. They just suck in different fashions.

"Prediction: 8th inning will improve with Adams out."

I think so too. Adams had been terrible this year, including the fact that RH hitters posted an ungodly .864 OPS against him. Now Cholly will be forced to do what he should have done before & play the lefty-righty matchups.

That said, even an injured Adams was better than guys like Aumont, Ramirez & Diekman. While the 8th inning might improve, with guys like Bastardo & DeFratus being used, the improvement will come at the expense of the earlier innings, where we'll manage to be even worse.

Shoulda posted Andy's lineup from 8:43 on teh last thread.

Ruiz the Day

lorecore- care to make a friendly wager on the O/U of ER against Marquis tonight?

I'll set it at 2.5 and take the under.

Delmon Young riding the pine again. Looks like the experiment is coming to an end.

Good thing the Docs eyeballed Wilton Lopez hard.

Look, I checked him out with these X-Ray specs Chris Wheeler ordered from the back of Boys' Life Magazine back in the 1950's.
Don't hold me accountable.

So with Schierholtz currently having a .930 OPS, Delmon Young getting benched and Adams being shut down is there even a contest at who had the worst off-season? Did Amaro do a SINGLE thing right at all other than not trading Dom Brown? When the best move your GM makes is not making a move what does it say about him?

For the reported Cloyd/Valle for Lopez trade, I would have traded even if I KNEW he'd need a Tommy John. Lopez is arb-eligible until 2016. This is the most incompetent front office I've witnessed in a long time.

nik - The Revere trade is looking ok

"Did Amaro do a SINGLE thing right at all other than not trading Dom Brown?"

In a few years the Revere trade is going to look great (it already does, actually). And the Michael Young move was fine.

But overall, yeah, he oversaw the worsening of every area of this team. Offense, defense, starting pitching, bullpen.

I think the Michael Young deal was a win, albeit not a huge one necessarily. He is not without his problems but we gave up Josh Lindblom (who was converted to a started by the Rangers and has started 4 games giving up 13 runs in 21 innings for a 5.40 ERA and an 82 ERA+) and Lisalverto Bonilla (who has been torched at Triple A Round Rock giving up 40 runs in 41 innings- although part of that could be due to his HR/9 totals being way above his career numbers).

And regarding the Valle non-trade- I would give him away for a six-pack of Pabst. He is an absolute non-prospect.

And the Revere trade was a win despite what the knuckleheads who had never seen him play before this season might say.

Anybody think Carlos Zambrano is gonna do something?

I also think the Revere trade was a great move.

And speaking of the way GM's probably shouldn't act in public:

ARod announced via Twitter that he is cleared to play in rehab games which contradicted what GM Brian Cashman said on Monday to ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews.

Cashman's response today to ESPN New York:

"You know what, when the Yankees want to announce something, [we will], Alex should just shut the f--- up. That's it. I'm going to call Alex now."

Now first- It is hilarious that Cashman put ARod in his place like that. But a guy who is a face of an organization needs to have more tact than that in the public.

TTI- Ben Davis just said his starting OF would be Brown, Ruf, and Mayberry in CF everyday. That would be the worst defensive OF in the last 25-35 years (/MG).

Pretty clear that Ben Davis either calls into WIP or posts on BL (or both).

Iceman: I'll take the over 2.5 on Marquis runs allowed tonight.

Loser has to find/paste the 5 dumbest posts they said in BL archives from before 2013 Opening Day in tomorrow's thread.

lorecore- haha, all right, I like that one. It's a bet.

Iceman: "care to make a friendly wager on the O/U of ER against Marquis tonight?

I'll set it at 2.5 and take the under."

2.5 against this offense? So you DO think Marquis is a bum.

Iceman: Man the Phillies can't even get good studio analysts for their product.

If this season is totally lost though I would take perverse pleasure in watching that outfield of Keystone Cops running around out there. O/U on how many times Mayberry would crash into the wall drifting back on a catchable home run....1.5

I suddenly have the feeling the dumbest post I ever made on BL was the one where I took the 'over' on a bet regarding the phillies offense.

"Loser has to find/paste the 5 dumbest posts they said in BL archives from before 2013 Opening Day in tomorrow's thread."

Now I'm more interested in the bet than in the Phillies game.

Lay off, Ben. He is an iconic ball player.

Easy prediction for me- Iceman is gonna be looking up posts.

Also, here is what someone needs to do. Write down the names of people posting here lately because in my mind- those are your fans that are true blue, non front running fans. Suffering is a part of true fandom and I consider Iceman, NEPP, Bed Beard, BAP, lorecore, Redburb, and the others just as goofy as I am for sticking with this.

lore: One of the dumbest posts I ever made on Beerleaguer was also in a bet: an off-season Internet bet with Iceman, in fact. Fortunately, he seems to have forgotten about it. And, truth be told, I have forgotten the precise terms also. All I remember is that it had to do with J.P. Howell, and whether he would suck this year. I took the "yes."

The big gamble with Adams was his health, which has been iffy for years.

Revere is going to be a part of 3 runs tonight, leading iceman to spite his success even though he's been his biggest supporter.

The problem with this team is that [bleep] seems to happen everyday.

Brown, Mayberry, Ruf would be a bad defensive outfield, and still it may be better than Brown, Revere, DYoung.

The only two good outfielders there are Mayberry and Revere.

Big Z would be nice in the pen, but he wants to start and I'm sure he got a promise when he signed that he wouldn't be sent to the pen.

The Revere trade is looking ok, but I don't think he replaced Vic's defense, although I hope he'll improve with time, being still young.

And we didn't replace the power that we had a few years back. I think Amaro was counting on both Youngs, plus a resurgence of power from Utley and Howard - who've continued to have various ailmnents. And Brown/Nix/Mayberry, perhaps? Brown, Amaro may have guessed right on.

Who thinks Adams will pitch another inning for the Phils?

Marquis was in the JD Drew/Wainwright trade.

Good, patient AB by Utley. Nice to see.

Amaro's only good move this offseason was not signing a really bad player like Ross to a multi-year deal. That's about it.

Between this trades last year at the deadline where it looks like he got an assort of magic beans and his moves this offseason, he unquestionably made the team worse.

Dang. We got runners in scoring position. And this looked like it was going to be a good inning.

MG: I can see a scenario much like Jose Contreras's last season for the Phillies. He'll come back around May, pitch a handful of innings, look like he's rounding into form, and then get injured again & be done for the year.

damn you warning track power.

Am I crazy, or should Utley have tagged up on that rather than run from the get-go and have to retreat? I know you can make an argument that if it hadn't been caught, he'd have been able to score.

I kinda needed those three runs to put me on that 10+ pace.

TTI: That was a couple feet away from winning you a bet.

Iceman took a deep breath there.

MG: The Revere and MYoung trades were good. But I do agree that the best thing he did this off-season is not lock himself into anymore long term deals with guys and gave himself some wiggle room for the coming years.

Who thinks Adams will pitch another inning for the Phils?

It'll be Contreras all over except for much higher price tag.

Howard was available to pinch hit last night...

I guess there was never a moment late in the game that would have been advantageous?

I guess Man on 2nd in the 9th, with only 3 run lead wasn't the right time.

MG: Agreed - Amaro made a very blatant effort to not lock himself into any long term deals at all - and it looks like that strategy was the correct one.

The one person he strayed from that approach was Adams, who got a 2nd year, and I bet he's kicking himself as much as we are cursing him.

I wouldn't say M. Young was a good move. It was an adequate one and Chavez would have been a better fit.

Paid a huge price for Revere too and the jury is still out. Still hasn't shown he can be a good enough player everyday to start in CF and I don't like his baseball IQ & his fundamentals.

If Adams had gotten hurt but had signed a 1-year deal with a $1M buyout, I wouldn't have minded that at all and understand why Amaro made that move to try to upgrade the 8th inning.

2nd year at $7M is just brutal.

MG: "Paid a huge price for Revere too and the jury is still out."

Worley & May are a huge price?

mayberry really battles those wall/rails in the OF. Pretty decent corner OF overall, but always seems to find trouble near the walls.

another great signing by Ruben ... please dear god, remove this buffoon so we can have a competent GM see us through the eventual fire-sale and transition period (provided the ownership group will look for a forward thinking GM instead of the old-school dinosaur type, which I fear they won't)

@TTI re your 10:05 thread, yup. I posted something similar during the road LA series in July last year. Problem is, I don't see even a semi-mini-miracle run from this group like last year.

clout - For an established MLB starter like Worley and a decent starting prospect like May, yeah it was.

Revere is basically on pace to be a ~1 WAR player this year and that just doesn't cut it asan everyday starter.

MG: A huge price for Revere? Worley and May? May is repeating Double A and his K/9 continues to be down from where it was when it dropped last year. Worley was bombed in the majors and had to be sent back to Triple A to get himself right.

Revere is getting back to his career numbers with a current slash line of .275/.309/.308/.617 and is 20 of 24 on the basepaths. Yes he has had some adventures in the outfield but to say he is not a good enough player to play everyday is just you continuing your odd vendetta against him.

And Chavez hasn't played in a month and I outlined what the Phillies gave up for Young earlier.

Mayberry has like zero awareness when he plays defense. I notice MG doesn't rail on that.

How does an outfielder run that far to a ball and never once try to pick up where the wall is at?

Think there's an insurance policy on that second year for Adams?

Since others have suggested it on larger type deals. Wonder if there are injury clauses written into them. Although injury causes may violate some part of the CBA.

I have appreciated Revere's (offensive) resurgence, but it is still hard to believe he is batting .275. The reaction is still ,"how did that happen?"

MG is the only guy alive that still think they paid a 'big price' for Revere. It's looking more and more like a fleece job every day. Revere is a cost-controlled starter that is probably between a 2-3 WAR player per year during his time here by the time it's all said and done. Well worth the price of two AAA filler arms.

I also remember him wanting to stay away from Chavez, who if I'm not mistaken has missed a bunch of time with injury. I'll look for that post while I'm researching my five dumbest posts of the off-season (which shouldn't be hard- just find the first five posts where I claim there's no way Delmon Young will be the starting RF).

For a guy who hasn't been as good as defensively as advertised and has a .617 OPS, yeah he has been a bit of a disappointment but he has only played half a season.

Serious questions, when will this medical staff be held accountable fir anything?

And just wondering outloud, does Chollie get shitcanned this season? And how long does Amaro have? Realize nobody knows, but keeping Amaro around through the duration of his contract could ruin this team until 2018. Seriously, the guy is a clown and just because he went to Stanford doesn't mean he's smart, has business sense or for that matter, was prepared in any way to run a baseball team.

Jose Contreras is available, by the way. Heck, why not?

TTI - what's crazy are the people READING the comments still.

BAP- oh I definitely remember it. I believe the terms were that 'sucks' = Howell's worst year as a reliever or something like that. I looked the other day to see how he was doing.

I was going to bring it up, but then I figured Jack would bring up my bet with him that Adams would have the best numbers of anyone other than Papelbon in the bullpen. Which he still might, who knows. But he probanly didn't want me to bring up how Bastardo was just as bad as Adams.

The point is: we all lost the bet, along with the rest of the fan base.

Iceman - I did and the guy I really wanted at 3B was Youkilis. Didn't mind the M. Young trade at the time either but offensively he hasn't hit for power & defensively he was as billed with almost zero range.

I'd be all for a reunion with Big Truck. Bring Scott Eyre back, too.

I'm not kidding. Could it really get any worse?

MG- I think the point is that there were no optimal moves he could've made. We all admitted as much in the off-season. He did the best he could. 3B wasn't saving this team or sinking it.

MG: But do you really think they paid a big price for Revere?


Also, Youk is currently at a 77 OPS+ on the season and is again out injured for a while.

Is it too early to Tip Our Caps™ to Marquis?

that might be the first 3-0 pitch a Phillie has taken for a strike in about a month.

Gotta walk here so MYoung can GIDP.

That swing by Utley is just inexcusable for a good player. Unbelievable.

Cant imagine that some team is really going to part with anything of top value for Utley. If so what a fleece job that will be.

Runner at third? Not allowed to drive him in.

541: because 2B with .800 OPS grow on trees, right?

not a strike

wtf???? That was a strike???

DOM you better crush this nostuff dbag.

Yeah because why would anyone want a second baseman who has a .472 slugging and .800 OPS with a 116 OPS+ and does a great job of making pitchers work on the mound?

Not a strike

That was absolutely one of the worst strike calls I have ever seen. Just absolutely disgraceful. This umpire is yet another joke.

POW!!! DOMBOMB!

yeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

lorecore on fire!

Start searching Iceman!!!

Dom crushed that ball

DOM!!!!

Dom busting out.

DomBomb #20

I'm happy but what a stupid pitch to Dom.

Crushed that ball and great timing. Nice to see someone actually win during the Home Run inning.

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