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Sunday, June 23, 2013

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Delmon Young needs to go. The only way he is worthy of a starting job with his atrocious defense, is if he's hitting .350 - He isn't, and will never hit well enough to excuse his bad defense. Thus, Mayberry (or Mini-Mart for that matter) would be a better option for Right Field.

DOM is 6-19 on the homestand (.316/.381/.474).

8 game home stand vs BOS/MIL/MIA: 1.627 OPS
10 game road trip vs MIL/MIN/COL: .689 OPS
5 game home stand vs WSN/NYM: .855 OPS

.998 OPS home, .766 OPS away for DOM so far this year.

I was wrong about Gee. I will need to pull a Bad Lieutenant-style double or nothing bet on Harvey.

I've noticed a tad less hatred for Revere around here lately...

I wonder if there might be a reason for that?

About the BP (I just read Iceman's post of last night).

I don't study players, so I was hopeful that RAJ had made good signings. I was particularly hopeful about Adams. And he did do well for a while, but injuries keep affecting him. Durbin was worse than I expected. Valdes, Horst. Ugh, what an awful trio that was. But their replacements are iffy. Bastardo has disappointed me - I'd hoped he'd be consistent.

I also (perhaps foolishly) hoped, hoped, hoped that the experience of last season would have had a positive effect on some of our young relievers, that a few of them would be able to put it together and be effective this year. (I guess I did realize that we would need to count on a few of them, not just the new signs and Papelbon.)

I thought Ricky Bo made a good point that it's time for Bastardo to step up and be a leader in the BP. (If he has sufficient confidence, which I have no idea about, but his pitching doesn't always seem confident.) And as Charlie said, we need some relievers to be aggressive. They need to throw with chutzpah.

That and skill, talent, control. Which is perhaps the problem.

Oh, by the way, I'm going out for lunch and will miss at least the first hour of the game. Maybe that means the Phillies will score some runs and take the lead. But it's Harvey, so I don't know whether my leaving is enough to help.

We have a -50 run differential. Egads. We're even worse than I thought.

Michael Young SLG: .408

Delmon Young SLG: .399

Let's look ahead. If the Phillies are three or more games under .500 prior to the trade deadline, what do we do?

Considering our aging core and kryptonite bullpen, I say SELL.

Utley to New York to play first base and DH. Papelbon to Detroit to replace Valverde. Chooch to anyone looking for a great handler of pitchers. Delmon Young to anyone looking for a DH, maybe back to Detroit in the Papelbon trade. No one will take Howard, so bite the bullet and hope. See if Oakland or San Fran or anyone needs a shortstop with proven playoff credentials and say goodbye to J-Roll.

Cliff Lee? Trade him only if we get proven major leaguers and prospects in return. Prospects only are too risky for the #1 commodity on the market.

Build around Hamels (this season is an aberration), Kendrick (he's cheap), Dom Brown, Tommy Joseph, Jesse Biddle and Ruf (who knows?).

Maybe in three years we'll be in contention again.

Iceman and I have often disagreed on the bullpen, but I believe we were both very in favor of Amaro signing Koji Uehara, who has been fantastic this season, instead of Adams. Obviously this bullpen needs more than just one guy, but it certainly would've helped.

Let's remember that it's not just the young guys that have failed. The Durbin and Adams signings were failures as well. Basically everything Amaro has touched has failed, in this regard.

Yahzooman - Rebuilding to contend in 3 years is for small market clubs. The Phillies need to hire a competent GM and contend every year with their $180M payroll.

SLG
Chris Young (Wash) 1.000
Chris Young (Oak) .373
Eric Young (NYM).357
Matt Young .636


WINNER CHRIS YOUNG (WASH)

Thanks, Jake. You make a valid point. But a team with a new GM and new manager, plus lots of new players, will need some time to build chemistry and sign the right Free Agents. Look at both LA teams. Their millions haven't immediately translated to wins on the field.

It would be great to go back to 90+ wins next year but it takes time to build a winning organization.

Are these people afraid to go sit in their seats at the game?

Was just looking through the standings, and saw that the NL east is the only division where no team has a .500 or better road record.

Jack is correct. He and I were both equally appalled by Uehara's signing with Boston (before the Phils had even signed Adams). 1 year, 4 million got a guy that didn't just have his rib removed.

I'm not going to declare BL Bankruptcy on the Adams signing, because I was lauding it under the operating assumption that, after the Lopez deal fell through, the FO was finally doing their due diligence to avoid getting damaged goods. It has since become clear beyond a shadow of a doubt that Amaro & crew truly have no idea what they are doing, and no longer deserve the benefit of the doubt. If the signing were made today, I would have probably shared MG's skepticism about it.

And the Uehara signing by Boston is an example of a GM doing his job of putting the best possible team on the field. They already had a 'closer' (Bailey) and had another trade in the works for Hanrahan. Yet Cherington refused to settle for just the minimum amount of depth and was able to find a closer-caliber RHP for 1 year/4 million.

Meanwhile, Amaro knew that his bullpen didn't have a single MLB-caliber arm for the late innings outside of Papelbon and Bastardo. So he signed one guy who was an '8th inning guy,' settled for Durbin because he was a 'veteran arm,' and was done with it. If I had to bet on it, I'd say he never even checked in on Uehara because he wasn't an '8th inning guy.' Because any competent GM with a sub-par bullpen than caught wind of the fact that an arm like that could be had that cheaply would have been all over it.

So yeah. Much like Swisher, I bet Uehara was never even an option in Ruben's mind. Either that, or the 7 year-old scouting report they had on Uehara said that he was nothing special.

I was really hoping for a Lannan-Marcum matchup today. The fifth starter vs. the fifth starter that could have been.

Instead it's our fifth starter against, literally, one of the best young arms in baseball. I'm surprised MG didn't come on here with something stupid about how he made a 'healthy wager' on the Mets today, because this is an obvious loss.

I'll be stunned if Lannan gets out unscathed. He's not looking sharp

With Lannan on the mound, his pitching so far today, and the likelihood of needing the pen for a few innings, I predict the Mutts will score at least 6. No way we'll come close with Harvey. Seriously, is there any way we CAN win this?

Maybe a rain delay early and a bullpen game?

Ugh. Good throw gets him

I'll take it. Could have been worse. Let's hope Harvey has an off day

Looks like Harvey is having an "on" day.

Not only is the pitching matchup terribly unbalanced, also Lannan will get no rest between innings, making it even more difficult for him.

Not a promising start. Harvey is in control

Lannan's WWF equivalent would be Koko B. Ware - well known quantity but a jobber nevertheless who inevitably losses to a superstar like Harvey.

Watching Harvey makes me remember that early in the season this is what we hoped to see from Hamels.

Lannan looks pretty sharp to me.

It's be nice to at least make Harvey pitch out of the stretch for much of the game.

Haren to the DL with 'Is no longer an MLB pitcher' tendinitis.

Yeah, I just bet that teams can't wait to get _elm_n as their DH. Where else could they get a DH with a .225/.283/.399 slash line? Add to that his speed on the basepaths and I can see why he'd be so attractive to AL teams.

Yeah Bottalico nailed it. The lack of 'chutzpah' and not the questionable/poor command and lack of quality offspeed stuff is the reason the Phils' relievers are struggling so much.

When he first started, he was a better analyst because he wasn't so over the top.

Yahzooman - I realize that right now the Phillies compare more to the LA teams, my hope is that they can be more like the Yankees if they have a competent GM.

Pay a decent buck to see a Cole/Harvey showdown between the Pirates & Mets. Watching Cole the other day and man he just pounds the job with that fastball in the upper 90s.

Might be another long afternoon phans.

MG- Wheeler's fastball is better, I'd argue. The difference (at least in his first start) is that he had trouble commanding it. Once he harnesses it, he'll be a top 10 pitcher.

On another note- I can't freaking believe DYak is in a game against a hard-throwing RHP. WTF.

Look at the difference between Byrd and Delmon on a foul ball at the exact same spot. Byrd got there and jumped and caught it. Delmon didn't come within 5 yards of getting to the spot.

Ugh. It's hard to fathom why they continue to think Delmon is a major-league baseball player.

Even Ben Revere can foul off a 98+ mph fastball. Wtf, Dom

Iceman - Too bad the rest of the Mets' farm system is so mediocre and they have very little to build around though besides Wright and Harvey/Wheeler.

Fans aren't going to return there in large numbers until they put a winning product on the field.

Phillies should've DFA'd Delmon instead of Mini-Mart

DYak has a -1.0 bWAR in a little over 150 PAs. Not much else needs to be said.

Going to look if anyone has a worse ratio of WAR-to-PA/games played. My guess would be no.

The Mets are actually pretty stacked with pitching in their system with Montero, Syndergaard and Leathersich. It's the position players they're missing.

Howard broke up the no-no with a nice hit. Brown looked foolish against Harvey, just completely overmatched.

Raining hard in Delco

Steve - Clearly they, like most Major League teams, have a lot of the best young arms in baseball.

Please rain soon.

Anyone notice Howard didn't realize there were three outs after that DP? Can't imagine anyone is too eager to face Harvey.

Well darn. Sun out again. Was hoping for a pause in the game long enough to stop the starters.

Yep. Min: 150 PAs, DYak is the 8th worst player in baseball in fWAR, and nobody ahead of him is even close to having that few PAs (152).

The closest is Ike Davis, who had just over 200 PAs. And he was demoted. Think about that. The Mets demoted a guy who was basically as bad as DYak while the Phils continue to start him.

It's kind of a shame that the Mets have already built an insurmountable lead.

"The Phillies need to hire a competent GM and contend every year with their $180M payroll."

There are many practical reasons why a rebuild on the fly is difficult to impossible in this day & age. Reason 1: you have to have a young core to build around & the Phillies don't -- other than Dom, Hamels, & players like KK & Revere, who are ok players but hardly the foundation of a championship team. Nor do they have any marquee near-major league ready prospects in the high minors. Literally, not one.

Reason 2: While the Phillies' payroll may be high, their liquid spending money is not especially high. If their roster stays as is, they'll be paying $104.5M to just 6 players -- 2 of whom are already in steep decline (Howard, Adams), 3 of whom are in their 30s & likely to start declining soon (Lee, Rollins, Papelbon), and 1 of whom is performing more like a $5M SP than a $20M SP (Hamels). Throw in another $7M for KK and maybe $10M to $12M total for arbitration or pre-arbitration guys like Lannan, Frandsen, Bastardo, DeFratus, Galvis, Dom, Mayberry, and Revere. So MAYBE they have $40M to spend. But they also have 3 (3!) everyday players who are leaving & they'd either have to re-sign them or replace them with better players just to preserve the status quo. There goes almost all of your $40M and you're still looking at the same crappy team.

Reason 3: that $180M payroll (it is actually $170M) isn't what it used to be. With more revenue sharing than in the past, more teams have money to throw around than in the past. These teams may not be spending $170M per year but, in many cases, they don't have to; if you have a core of good, young, inexpensive players, you don't need to throw 5 years, $100M at the best FA out there.

Reason 4: you can't sign what isn't available. With more and more teams locking up their young stars, the FA classes are becoming thinner every year. Meanwhile, it is harder to sign those FAs because there are more teams in competition for them. (See Reason 3.) And the prices are going way up because the supply is smaller & teams have more money to spend (See Reason 3 again). Free agency was already sort of a Ponzi scheme to begin with, since 99% of the available players are in their 30s. But now the money & years that you have to fork out to get those players are increasing. So you end up with outrageously priced starters, who are badly declining & are too expensive to replace -- kind of like Mike Adams & Ryan Howard. If you look at the 20 biggest contracts from last year's FA class, about 75% of the signees have been flat-out terrible -- and we're only in year 1 of their contracts.

_elmon might be a lousy player but at least he knew he had to get to the ball to save us a Revere throw.

Rain delay?? Are the Baseball gods smiling down on the Phillies?

Jake, nah. Here in Delco it was only 5 minutes worth; now it is sunny again.

Anyone know the significance of July 15, 1972?

Here's a hint:

Bowa 6
Doyle 4
Hutton 7 (?!)
D Johnson 3
Montanez 8
Money 5
Gamble 9
Bateman 2
Carlton 1

I'd be willing to spend almost all of that money on Cano, personally. I doubt many will agree with that.

BAP - With good management and a high payroll, a team can contend every year without a young core. Case in point; the New York Yankees.

Second hint: Phillies beat the Giants that day.

Let me explain the Cano thing: if you bring him in, you get massive product from a premium position, a la Utley in his prime. It is much easier to find patchwork offense at the corner OF/3B than it is at 2B. So it immediately makes a weakness (which is what 2B will be next year if they do anything but sign Cano) into a major strength.

It will be much easier to build a competitive offense that way. That way if you add a few pieces for the future in trading Papelbon/Rollins/Lee, you will have the ability to transition into competing again in a very short amount of time with a building block like Cano. And if you get some of Lee's/Papelbon's money off the books, that's even more money to spend on things like improving the bullpen/rounding out the rotation.

Ice - I agree. But when was the last time the Phils been able to patch in productive players at 3B and corner OF?

Typical 2013 inning there. First runner gets into scoring position with no outs and they proceed to blow the scoring chance. It happens often with any team, but seems to happen predictably often with this one.

#3: July 15th was the 82nd game of 1972 for the Phils.

Andy~ Phils scored 11 runs in an inning that day I believe.

That ball was caught. Ridiculous call.

Amazingly ridiculous call.

His glove was shut. Then he opened it and the ball dropped out. Outrageous!

That was 100 percent Revere's fault. He should be benched for that.

Hosed again. This is getting f@#king old.

D Pat - That is true. But look at the larger picture.

In that 11 run incidentally, they received 6 walks and benefited from 2 wild pitches. It was kind of a gift inning in that regard.

Watching Dom Brown dip his back shoulder trying to hit an uppercut homerun against a high 90's fastball is sickening. If you watch him closely, he actually dips his entire body down, then comes up in the swing, while tilting his back shoulder down. It's amazing he actually ever hits the ball. And if you'll notice, he's really not hitting fastballs much anymore. Even ones that get a lot of the plate. And he has no hope against anything with real velocity.

Of course, Charlie never has heard of a squeeze bunt. Because, as we know, that never works. And it never works with a bad baserunner on third like Utley. Especially since it's a sure thing that this lineup is going to get hit after hit against Harvey. I suppose Brown can't bunt, after all, that doesn't lead to production. Except when it does.

NoD Delmon the Horrible strikes again. Absolutely worthless player.

Hey! This is not fair!! The Mets are not allowed to get hits when they have runners in scoring position! It's illegal to do that - against the rules. I know because I've been watching the Phillies and THEY never do it...

This sucks

Jake - But he's comfortable out there. I mean, that's what's important I think...

Ice~ I may be missing something. Are you saying the Phils should bring in Cano? If so, I agree but I can't see them doing it without a new TV deal in place.

As we've all seen, They had opps to bring in better players than what they did, so on the whole I just can't see them going after elite players. Again that hinges on the new TV deal.

Isn't it ironic that they still a hitter who can play RF? While Pence is not Werth, He's way better than D. Young. So, until RAJ decides that he must go to ownership and convince them to allow him to do what's necessary, I don't see it happening. Can't say I trust RAJ to do it even if he had management's ok.

Jake: The Yankees are a bad analogy for any major league team because their payroll, for most of that period, has been like 50% higher than the next highest team. Even still, one of the main reasons they have contended for many years is because of a homegrown core -- Jeter, Mariano, Pettite, Cano -- which was not only phenomenal but which (in the cases of Jeter, Mariano & Pettitte) defied the odds & remained great into their late 30s. That simply hasn't happened with the Phillies' core (save for possibly Lee).

But now that other teams are starting to narrow the payroll gap with the Yankees, it's going to become more difficult for them to find the adequate & affordable replacements which would let them absorb disastrous signings like A-Rod and Teixeira. I would also note that Sabathia, who is owed nearly $100M more for 4 more years, is 33 & has been a league average starter this year; his decline may well have arrived.

In short, good GM or not, I think the Yankees are headed the same way as the Phillies. They have a good record this year, but it's smoke & mirrors. They will not likely be in contention when the 2nd half arrives. And, even if they do somehow stay in contention this year, they are headed for some rough years in the very near future.

So listen: July 15, 1972, the Phils not only scored 11 runs in an inning, they actually scored 11 runs in a game.

John Lannan was never going to win a game against Harvey. It simply was not going to happen. Of course, the Phillies inability to play situational baseball and catch the baseball on defense doesn't help. And calling for a high fastball when the opposing pitcher just swung a foot over two changeups is not smart.

But this is the 2013 Phillies. Enjoy. I'm going to go do something fun.

THIS SUCKS

Andy~ The bigger picture escapes me. Can't remember back that far. I do remember however that 11 was Harry the K's favorite number.

This exactly what should be expected with Harvey starting. Sadly the Phils and Mets are comparable teams as seen by the run differential.

Professionals would be embarrassed by the way the Phillies have played; the Phillies aren't.

Carlton won his next 8 starts and pitched at least 9 innings in every one. He lost the 9th start in 11 innings.

6 pitch inning????


roll over. Roll over.

BAP - You're talking about the past, and the future (how you see it). I'm talking about the present. The 2013 Yankees are an old team, and they are in contention. They were contenders last year, and they will reload & contend next year, because sucking is not an option for them.

We all knew this game was a loss.

Revere is the"game changer of the week"!

That game, in 1972, was the last time the Phillies went this far into a season without scoring in double figures.

41 years ago. And THAT line up flat out stank.

I know that 10 runs is arbitrary; but applied in a uniform way to 41 years worth of statistics and it does indicate that this is one of (if not) the most anemic offensive teams in Phillies baseball history. They are consistently ineffective at scoring runs, against good pitching, mediocre pitching and bad pitching.

"When are you going to score ten runs?" is, actually, a legitimate question, as every Phillies team since 1972 (and hey, that includes all those years with, like, Relaford and Ducey and Jeltz and such starting) was able to manage that feat by this point in the season.

So he should go ahead and punch Eskin, actually, before game 82 (if that's what it takes), so this crowd doesn't have to admit that they are even worse than Bowa, Doyle, Hutton, et al.


Today's game needs a mercy rule.

Paying fans should demand a refund. This is pathetic.

Split the gap again!

Why is Lannan out there in the sixth?

Chances the Mets only get 5 > Chances the Phillies score at all

This team is awful

Well, now that Savery has come at least we know one thing - this loss was the bullpen's fault.

Jose - I think I said that before. In one respect, at least, this is the worst line-up since 1972.

"They were contenders last year, and they will reload & contend next year, because sucking is not an option for them."

Well, if it were as simple as "sucking is not an option," then a lot of teams would contend every year. The Yankees have a bad roster, with backup caliber players starting at every position except 2nd base & CF. You keep assuring us that the Braves are not as good as their record because they've been a .500 team since their hot start. The same is true of the Yankees. The difference is, the Braves' Pythagorean record says they're almost exactly what their record says they are. The Yankees' Pythagorean record says they're a .500 team, which is what I expect them to be for the rest of the season -- if that.

Cyclic - Did you mean 5 runs in THIS INNING?

Savery brings a white flag and a gas can to the table

I'll never understand how a long-time Phillies fan, who has seen this teams' track record, could advocate for a rebuild. The Phillies suck at rebuilding, and when they try (& fail) ticket sales drop drastically and ownership stops spending on free agents. Trying to spend your way out of the current mess may not be a perfect solution, but attempting to rebuild around a non-existent young core is far worse.

Lannon out savery in...

watta bullpen

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