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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Comments

repost:

Phils outwalked the Padres by 7 yesterday(7-0). The last time they've outwalked an opponent by more than 7 was july 19 2009, when they walked 9 times to the Marlins 1.

Sounds like the Phillies changed their approach at the plate.

non elite power

more walks = less chances for Production™
™ ITS ALL SO SIMPLE.

Bobby Abreu used to walk a lot.

I am okay with any of these dudes being traded.

Whom, exactly, does Salisbury think the Yankees give up for Chooch and Utley? I cannot imagine there is good value anywhere close to ready or they'd be using it.

Re: Rollins to St. Louis, from the last thread -

Kozma's the weak link in the Cards' lineup, but I'm not sure they need the upgrade enough to pay anything for an aging guy with a sizable contract like J-Roll. The rest of their lineup is ridiculous, and their one other weak spot (CF) will probably be filled by top prospect Oscar Taveras once he's back from an ankle injury. They also have Daniel Descalso, who isn't a great defender at SS (he's a natural 2B) but has been hitting very well.

Andy: "Whom, exactly, does Salisbury think the Yankees give up for Chooch and Utley? I cannot imagine there is good value anywhere close to ready or they'd be using it."

repost:

Trade rumor that should happen: Carlos Ruiz to NYY. Cervelli is hurt, and is only a backup type anyway. They also have a good catching prospect that Chooch won't block since he's a FA. And their team is in need of RHB in general, now and the rest of the year.

Yankees have 3 well regarded OF prospects that the Phillies would be wise to target. Mason Williams(20) is likely too much, but he's a CF and further away.

Slade Heathcott(22) is a lefty with high upside who hits to both gaps well and good speed. Plays CF in minors, but likely a good defending corner OF in the majors. Still has more potential as a hitter, downside is he's been nicked up often.

Tyler Austin(21) is a righty who played corner inf and OF - likely to stick in RF with a big arm. Another combo of speed and gap power, Austin has been the overachiever compared to Heathcott, and has been lighting the minors up (.941 career OPS).

All 3 are probably 'too much' for Ruiz, but he's more valuable with sooner rather than later, especially to the Yankees with current injuries to their C and RHBs. The yankees having 3 OF to choose from might also help them part with 1. And if they really want RH power, kick in Mayberry if it adds any value at all.

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, May 02, 2013 at 10:19 AM

There's no question in my mind that the Phils and Yankees are obvious trade partners this year. Not only do the Phils' pieces fit the Yankees, but the Yankees have considerable minor-league depth in the outfield including Tyler Austin, Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, and Ramon Flores. One of those first three guys would be an excellent centerpiece for a trade.

Or, what lorecore said. :)

We're not getting more than one of those three for Ruiz. You'd probably get at least one lesser prospect in the deal. You could pry two top prospects loose if Utley goes with Chooch.

But do the Yankees have enough prospects to trade for all three (Utley, MYoung, and Ruiz)? I'd rather try to hit as many different farm systems as possible, I guess, in hopes of improving the odds of multiple winning lottery tickets..

Lorecore: FYI I do not participate in the predictions game. I think one year I did predict they would win 95 games. At no time did I predict they would win anything. Not my style and BB is too unpredictable.
That said I had numerous posts in the past several years pointing out that since our WS each year after we finished worse then the previous year. Similar to the chart you have up.

Red: I don't know what is revisionist about what I am writing. Nothing has changed. I loved Utley but when he started to get injured missed a lot of games and stopped producing along the lines he did why not trade him, while everyone still thinks he walks on water?
But hey have it your way.

I'm wary of dealing all our chips to one team as well, but the Yanks have exactly what we need in surplus, and very few other teams do.

Hey they could surprise us. Start their annual climb to the top bypass the Nats and hope the Pirates collapse in August as they have in recent times.

But that won't change my mind that this team needs an overhaul and that Amaro is not the man for the job and Charlie is not the man to manage the team.

As you say its a crapshoot sometimes the worse team wins anyway.

Howard is on a pace to set a personal high in doubles. If he can continue to hit the doubles and somehow get to 30 HRs, that would be a very solid offensive showing.

Another name to watch in a Yankees deal - Mark Montgomery, who is currently pitching for the Yanks' AAA team in Scranton. If the Phils are thinking of dealing Papelbon, they might want to grab him. Here's John Sickels on Montgomery:

It is tough to rank relief prospects, but this guy has it: outstanding slider, good fastball, good control, excellent performance metrics. Clear closer potential, at least for many organizations.

The Yankees have David Robertson ready to take over for Mariano next year, and they seem to be finding/producing excellent "no-name" relievers left and right (Shawn Kelley, Preston Claiborne, Boone Logan, Adam Warren, David Phelps). They would be trading from another position of depth.

Howie'd have to really push it to get to 30 at this point..

Keep an eye out for cards and David freese. If they don't trade him at deadline def in off season

"At no time did I predict they would win anything. Not my style and BB is too unpredictable."

You don't make predictions because baseball is too unpredictable, but yet you want to take credit for telling us all that the Phillies were in decline as early as 2010. And, though you've just acknowledged the unpredictable nature of baseball, that's not going to stop you from declaring that a better run team would have sold off all their pieces in 2010, because they would have foreseen that the Phillies' 97 and 102-win teams of 2010 & 2011 would get knocked out in the playoffs. Do I have that about right?

Trade Cooch. We can replace him with .050 hitting Joseph.
Rauuuul HR # 18

RK, you are quite the confusing person.

"My job is to get us to the playoffs. Everything after that is f****** luck"
-Billy Beane

2nd career start? I'm warming up my cap tipping elbow and shoulder. No tears here.

The Phillies have already been suckered by the Yuckees for prospects. Hope it will not happen again.

Any discussion of Utley to the Yankees should start with their #1 catching prospect. The way Stark put it yesterday it sounds like Utley's value is being inflated by his rep- surely he wouldn't be in such 'high demand' based on how he's performed this year. Make them bend over for him.

Truthfully, Amaro should be shopping around a Lee-Utley package to get the most possible out of a Lee deal. Detroit, Boston and NY would be the best fits for a possible mega-deal from the Phils' perspective.

Now back to looking up dumb sh*t I said 6 months ago.

We should be so lucky to have Billy Beane

Red its not confusing at all. Its possible this team slips in if it gets hot and others get cold.

But its a very flawed team that is poorly managed from the top down.

By far my posts have been that CM was lucky to have the players he had--he is basically a nice guy who is clueless.
And RAJ well enough said.

The "Yuckees" ? Good to see the Under 10 crowd likes to post here.

Straight up for Ruiz, there is zero chance the Yankees would give up any of the names listed by lorecore.

Col. Tom's suggestion of Montgomery has a shot, though.

Yak back, Revere sits.

They're just trolling us now.

Rollins
Utley
MYoung
Howard
Brown
DYoung
Mayberry
Ruiz
Hamels

above Mayberry too. ugh. straight up trolling.

I'm still waiting to see what, exactly, Young has done this season to hold onto a starting spot.

Any discussion of Utley to the Yankees should start with their #1 catching prospect.

You might snag Austin Romine in a deal with the Yankees, but I'm not sure he's a long-term improvement over the prospects we have in-house. Besides, we have three catching prospects (Joseph, Rupp, Valle) in the pipeline - one of them has to pan out, right?

I'd rather deal for one or more of the three outfielders lorecore mentioned, who are all regarded as much better prospects than Romine. Angelo Gumbs, a 2B who will likely end up in CF before all's said and done, also might be interesting, though he's a long way from the majors and struggling mightily this year.

Why is revere sitting? Ugh. F you Manuel.

RK probably thinks Billy Beane looks like Brad Pitt and the A's are managed by PS Hoffman. That's the extent of his knowledge on Beane.

Well, at least they're playing the platoon advantage by sitting Revere and playing both JMJ and _elm_n against a lefty. There's some semblance of logic there, though I disagree with any decision that results in _elm_n getting off the bench.

ColTom- Valle is a bum and his stock has plummeted this year. I wouldn't count on Joseph, either. If you can get a C prospect with a better chance of succeeding than those guys, you absolutely have to do it. I was actually talking about Gary Sanchez, a top 30 prospect in baseball. Let them know their white whale (Lee) is available and start the conversation with Sanchez.

Btw, I don't know anything about Rupp, but MG's scout friend said he's terrible.

Who said anything about straight up?
We send:
Chooch, One of our septuagenarian ushers and clout

We get:
Vernon Wells, The "Frankie Sez" guy and The Bleacher Creatures who sing the "At the Gang Bang" song

Excuse me, "Freddie sez"

"When the Phillies walk at least three times in a game, they're 26-13. When they don't, they're 11-28."

You hear that Ruben? Didn't think so.

Beware the Yankees, especially when they trade prospects.


When's the last time a Yankees prospect lived up to his billing?

Here's comment #3. I made this in November during my 'I hate Mayberry phase, arguing for Cody Ross:

"Anyone that wants Mayberry back on the team getting as many ABs as he did last year because he makes peanuts is a complete loon that wants this team doomed to mediocrity. Mayberry was anchor on this offense for weeks at a time last season, especially against RHP. Ross would completely eliminate the possibility of that happening again. This is a separate argument from the 'Well, he doesn't deserve 3 years' argument. Of course he doesn't. But he is a much better player than Mayberry, and better against LHP."

Ross against RHP this year: .508 OPS. He's making almost $9 million for an overall .669 OPS and an injury plagued season. Mayberry has a .702 OPS vs RHP (.758 overall) and is getting paid 500K.

John, I apologize. For everything. Please take me back.

Iceman: If you were having a baseball themed party who is more likely to show up and prove they actually exist: DPatrone's source or MG's scouting friend?

I assume they're one in the same...

NEPP: CJ Henry, still simmering with upside. Don't give up.

One of those guys lives next door to Wheels. He is their source.

Comment #4 (from October). I call this one 'Lets Make A [Stupid] Deal.'

"Also, as gung-ho I am on the ideas of poaching one of KC's young hitters, I almost wonder if you could get better return from shopping Kendrick instead of Worley. I'm more bullish on Kendrick than Worley next year, but you could not possibly sell higher on Kendrick than you could this off-season. Putting him in a package for Moustakas, then signing a starter like Kuroda or Marcum, would drastically improve the team."

Moustakas this year: .580 OPS, .458 OPS vs. LHP. -0.7 WAR. Boras client.

Kendrick: Good case to make the AS team.

Worley: Not good enough to make the Twins roster.

Iceman, I hadn't even thought about Sanchez. Lee or Hamels would be the only way to get him, though. They also have J.R. Murphy, but he's a good way away from the majors. Romine could step in next year.

Fantastic work Iceman. I've never been a big proponent of posters betting, but I think you've convinced me otherwise.

This lineup doesn't surprise me. Mayberry had a good game last night so he needs to give him another start. DYoung is a "slow starter" according to Rube, so Charlie is obligated to play him until at least July 15th. Revere is a lefty so its an easy excuse to sit him tonight and play Mayberry. In time I have faith that Charlie will risk his job and bench DYoung for good.

Here's #5. Was going to post another comment downplaying the DYak signing, but then I stumbled upon this.

"Yeah, with the money they're already paying Nix, I don't see them shelling out 1.6 million for Schierholtz to suck equally.
Posted by: Iceman | Monday, October 29, 2012 at 01:30 PM"

This has been a humbling experience.

The best part of Revere sitting against LHP is that he actually has reverse splits so its a stupid argument...but its one they would still make.

Redburb: I think this should be the start of a tradition. The worst part was the chore of actually looking. Normally I don't have a problem looking up stupid stuff other people have said when I remember specifically that they said it. But stumbling across some of the stuff I'd forgotten that I'd suggested was painful.

'Friendly wagers' on BL from now on should be scavenger hunts of this nature. "If you lose, find a dumb comment you made during the 2010 trade deadline." Something of that nature.

"surely [Utley] wouldn't be in such 'high demand' based on how he's performed this year"

why not? he's performed quite well this year; other teams surely know this better than you do

NEPP - I doubt Charlie actually wants to play DYoung over Revere. I think he's managing for his job so he must heed his incompetent boss and play DYoung.

Colonel: if you dangle Lee to any team, you need to get at least one blue chip, relative sure thing in return. Sanchez is that guy. If they call asking for Utley, offer a package with Lee. I think I said Sanchez, Montgomery and another one of their top 100 OFs yesterday as a framework for a deal.

Iceman - You would trade a superstar ace pitcher for a "relative sure thing" ?

I'd guess you'll start to see major league scouts from all over baseball flocking to Allentown, to see Mini Mart. If the fire sale gets started, he'll be at the top of the heap for many teams, looking for unquestioned and top-flight versatility for the playoff push.

I bet he could bring back a huge haul for Ruben and the FO.

Franco is 1 for 1 with an RBI so far tonight in Reading. He's batting .500 now since being promoted.

There is no "relative sure thing" among prospects. Even among the best ones, most will not live up to their billing. The other side of the coin, however, is that most 35-year old ace pitchers will not still be ace pitchers for more than another year, at most.

Ice, what wager did you lose that resulted in this wonderful exercise? I would look it up, but that would be too much like losing a bet...

So, basically, I should just do the opposite of whatever Iceman says.

Jake- the best thing you can do is to get a guy that is as close to a lock as possible (even if it's less than a 50/50 proposition, like with most prospects), plus a few others with high ceilings. The alternative is to have Lee pitch the rest of his prime on a 70-75 win team and pay him $100 million with nothing to show for it.

Also, Utley has played in 63% of his team's game this year, has arthritic knees, and as has been the case the past few years, slowed down after a quick start (.723 OPS in his last 26 games). Whatever GM that thinks 2+ months worth of that is enough to give up a top 100 prospect is...well, someone I'd want Amaro trading with.

They're not arthritic, they're degenerative on some other even worse level supposedly.

Though the knees aren't the issue this year supposedly...its just everything else.

TPoT: I bet lorecore that they would score less than 3 runs against marquis last night. The one time I'm negative, I end up paying for it.

Tons of tickets still available for the Independence Day festivities. I can't remember the last time this was the case for the whole weekend.

Jimmy is so good. What an arm.

Thank goodness Delmn made that catch. He earned a D on that one.

You can call me Delm_n now.

Rollins is such a solid defensive SS. We take that for granted sometimes.

Hamels looking like 2013 Hamels so far...

Iceman - If a future team with Cliff Lee will win 70/75 games, how many more do they win with the help of a 50/50 prospect (and the loss of Lee) ?

What the hell happened to Chase Headley?

Nice shutdown inning. 14 pitches? Not bad

Jake: Out of curiosity, do you happen to know Cliff Lee's age?

Imagine how pissed everyone would be if we had emptied out the farm system for Headley in the off-season.

For one night, we shall call him Delmon.

He still sucks.

BAP - Yes, I realize there is a chance Lee breaks down (not a very big chance IMO) but I'll take that chance over a 50/50 prospect.

What a terrible slide...good thing it wasn't a close play.

Get him over, get him in... 2013 Phillies?

So DYoung makes a nice running catch, hit a double, tags from 2nd, then tags from third. He most likely just earned himself another month in RF.

I think I can count on one hand the number of ace pitchers in the last 20 years that have still been ace pitchers in their age 35 and 36 seasons. I'd say the odds of those top prospects panning out are decidedly better than the odds that Cliff Lee has 2 more great seasons in him.

Rube: "Delmon is starting to heat up. He just needs more reps."

"I'd say the odds of those top prospects panning out are decidedly better than the odds that Cliff Lee has 2 more great seasons in him."

Yea you're right, look at all the prospects that Lee has been traded for through out the years:

Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson.
J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies, and Phillippe Aumont.
Matthew Lawson, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak.

If anything those odds are about even.

BAP - I disagree. Cliff Lee is different than most hard-throwing ace pitchers. He has a smooth delivery with pin-point control; a good recipe for staying effective late into his career.

BAP - Besides, I think the Phillies will need him for a pennant race this year.

Not to take a side in this but everything you just said was said about Halladay less than 24 months ago.

Jake- it's not just about a 1-for-1 trade, or even how much of a sure thing the player(s) will be. It's the fact that the guy(s) we'll get will be 13-15 years younger than Lee.

They'll have a chance to contribute to the team positively for years. Lee's got one more, two if he's lucky, at an elite level. It's the same reason why the Revere trade was a good one.

Right down the middle, Ace

I think we can take the "D" away again.

I guess we're back to _elmon

That lasted about 15 minutes.

Thanks, elmon

Iceman - High draft picks are also young, and they won't cost you an ace pitcher.

Told you he sucked.

Delmon giveth and taketh away. Maybe Charley wants Cole to blow a gasket by letting the youngs play defensively when he pitches.

Jake- the draft is not nearly as reliable as acquiring a player that has actually hit against talent his age at the minor league level.

I'd easily make a bet that a guy like Sanchez will have a better career than everyone the Phils just drafted a few months ago. Loser has to go back through the archives 15 years from now and repost their comments from this thread.

Yeah it's cap tipping time.

You didn't think they'd score more than 2 for Hamels, did ya?

Welcome back _elm_n

Can we amnesty DYoung?

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