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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Comments

Pig pen

Pedro's Midget had a good point in the game thread. Hamels was looking good until he gave up that bunt.

So when are Utley and Ruiz packing? I hope all of you "blow it up" people are happy when those guys are wearing Yankee pinstripes and the Phils get virtually nothing back in return.

A truly empty win. Our "ace" blows up again. DYoung hits a hr which means he will stay on the team longer waiting for him to start to hit. A "walkoff" error helps us win. Dodgers will get on track the next 4 against us. Pitching matchups not in our favor and now the bullpen depleted thanks to Cole.

Still not happy D.Young hit a HR.

and
Get your sh*t together Cole

I saw a comment from David Montgomery that basically said they may be reluctant to trade some guys because of the attachment the fans have to them.

To that I say- that is a load of crap, and listening to the fans too much is what got the Flyers into the mess they are in. Yes, trading Utley, Ruiz, Lee, Rollins will piss people off but if you build a winner they will come back to you. The idea should be improving your team going forward, and as much as I love watching all those guys play- they are wasted on a team that seemingly is going nowhere. Shop the guys, get back what you can and try to reload and rebuild for the coming seasons.

And to those that keep whining and saying stuff like "Amaro won't get anything in return" or "I'd rather have Lee pitching every 5th day..." I say first- yes Amaro may blow it but getting stuff back now gives us flexibility and at least gives us a chance, and second go on eBay and see if you can find an old late 90's video yearbook of the Phillies. You'll love watching the team that is a good pitcher, a good hitter and a bunch of hot garbage.

Sil reminded me of one of them champagne party favor poppers. Pop!....Billingsly it would be very weird almost sacrilegious to see either of them in anything but a Phillies uniform especially the Yanks. ..Maybe they want Delmon

I love His Holiness but we squeezed all the blood out of this stone. Please let St. Utley compete for another WFC on an AL team.

TTI: The most important point you make is "...but if you build a winner they will come back to you." That's the rub. How are you "building a winner" if you shed a few million bucks (that'll be gone at the end of the season anyway) and get nothing back in return?

I'm all for trading anyone as long as it helps the team. For a team with a $180M payroll, saving a few million bucks for the remainder of the year is not worth a C-Level prospect, if it involves "pissing off fans". The ownership must know this. They can't keep their payroll high if the fans don't come to games, buy merchandise, etc. It's not as simple as people make it out to be. There are economic factors outside of payroll that need to be taken into consideration. Shedding a few mill this year could cost more in revenue than they're shedding.

Now, if you can get something of value while adding payroll flexibility for the next few years, I'm fine with that. But trading Utley and Ruiz for peanuts does not accomplish either of those in the least. So what's the point of "pissing of the fanbase" to save a few bucks THIS season that will have no effect on the strength of the team going forward?

And believe me, if there's one guy who would like to see Utley go, it's me. But, I'd rather him stay than get traded for nothing -- which is what I'd imagine you'd get.

Still a quality win and I turned off the game because I thought it was over after they were down 5-2 and I had to get up early.

Stop talking sell and think buy, buy, buy. This is a weak division and a little improvement may carry us.

Billingsley is making a lot of sense. The meager return you're likely to get for Ruiz & even old, banged-up Utley at this point is probably not worth the loss of revenue that comes from trading the team's most popular player(s).

Here's a question, if the team doesn't trade Utley or Ruiz, do you offer them Qualifying Offers? What are the benefits or drawbacks of doing so?

The division up to now has been somewhat weak. Though this team is still too weak. Other than that 5 game run they had they are unable to mount any run. Win 2 lose 2, Win 1, lose 1, Win 2 lose 1 etc. Its different from before where they would get off to a slow start then heat up. The next 2 weeks or so will determine their fate. One piece isnt going to get them over the edge I believe especially now with their bullpen.

Aren't the drawbacks and benefits obvious to any qualifying offer?

Not really. Do you think that Utley or Ruiz will be offered multi-year deals on the open market?

They shouldn't be but I'm sure a team will be dumb enough to make a multiyear offer.

"Cole Hamels owes [an apology] to Delmon Young. Hamels, who was in line to become the first Phillies pitcher in the franchise’s 131-year history to lose 12 games before July"

Arbitrary. I lost 12 straight after July 31 in 1940.

Like this team doesn't piss the fans off WITH Utley, Lee, Hamels. Most are realistic that we are at the end of a great run. While attendance would take another hit for bow, there is nothing wrong with preparing for the future.

Kudos to those in the Eastern time zone who stayed up to watch the Phils "rally" last night. I was about to leave a bar when I saw an update saying Phils were down 5-2. Closed the place blissfully unaware of DYoung's guaranteed start in the next 30 games.

I'm sure that Rube will be dumb enough to offer both multi-year deals...probably 2 years with a 3rd year vesting for both if I had to guess.

RBill: But who says they are trading those guys for peanuts?

My guess is you can probably shake a nice piece loose for Ruiz and my guess is Utley probably gets you two "B" prospects in the right package.

I'm not saying trade for the sake of trading. I am saying that with the depleted farm system they could get themselves some money to reboot this coming season AND get some guys in the farm system who could come up and help if needed in the next year or two instead of relying on guys like Aumont and Mini Mart to get called up from Triple A.

So Joe, if you think that, you have to offer them the Qualifying Offer then right? If you think that the market is only 1 year deals for each, the QO is more of a gamble.

Had to get to bed last night and missed the late inning fireworks. My bad. I had the thought flash through my mind when they lost the lead and were getting schooled again by a AAA rookie, that maybe some of the guys guys were starting to reach mail it in status. Obviously not so.

They will tell the fanbase they will attempt to resign one or both at the end of year. Which you know aint gonna happen. I can see them trading M. Young and letting Galvis, Frandsden and calling up one of the Pigs.

Also, RBIll I understand other outside factors. But I said the other week I was wondering if not trying to rebuild to compete for a run could hurt them in the upcoming television negotations. Any loss they get in merchandise or ticket sales will be offset some by the tv contract they sign but I wonder if they show no signs of improving the team if it might mean a little less money in the bottom line.

Basically if ratings are down this year and next the tv executives will use that to drive the price down. The Phillies need to be able to say , "Yes, but we made moves to be competitive for the next 6 or 7 years again so this ratings slide is a blip."

Lost in the win last night was that the bullpen went 7 innings and gave up nothing.

Aumont, Ramirez, and Diekman are all guys who have control issues and of the 18 batters they faced they got ahead of 12 of them with first pitch strikes. All three of them have swing and miss stuff so working ahead in the count usually should mean success for them and it did last night.

I just pray that someone wants Delmon's new found pop

My son went to Exeter with Logan. They called him Loggie.

I wonder how much a ratings dip would really hurt the Phillies. Not saying that it wouldn't, just if ratings did dip, will it? They have what, the 4th or 5th largest market in the country. I know it could be used as a negotiation tool, but Comcast got a steal on the last deal. The Phillies should get a monster deal.

ode to beerleaguer:

After making one of the best fan decisions I ever have and not bothered to watch the game last night, I woke up and checked my phone for the boxscore. As soon as I saw 7-5 in 13IP, I made it a point to not turn on the TV/radio/computer all morning until I got to work.

Instead of looking for any recap or play by play, I went directly to the BL game thread and read line by line. Haha, awesome.

Phils better milk every penny possible out of Comcast. Hate them bastards. I guess that would lead to higher costs by comcast customers cause they are a-holes like that, but I'm not one. =)

Now that i've seen the highlights and play by play:

- Hamels 6 IP line vs the bullpen's 7 IP line is ridiculous. What the hell, man? I know he's having a bad year, but this is getting out of hand.

- Looks like Howard better make sure his knee pain starts to act up more often when they face a LH Starter.

- I hope someone has Luke Gregerson on suicide watch. Delmon swung at pitch that bounced before the plate for strike two, but yet he threw a cookie down the middle on the next pitch? Ha, unreal.

I don't see how getting two B prospects for Utley has a good chance of helping the team in the short term or long term.


My guess is Gregerson was trying to throw in the and slipped and accidentally threw one right down the middle. No other reason for any time to ever throw D.Young anything on the plate.

Look, you are either a World Series contender, or you are not. This team clearly is not.

What's worse is that Ruben may be allowed by Montgomery to make the moves of a man desperate to keep his job (and justify his offseason moves), and trade away any remaining young talent we have for a run this year.

THAT is why I hope the Phillies go on a serious losing streak. It's not about this year, it's about the next 3-5. This team needs to be rebuilt and Amaro needs to go.

Instead of looking for any recap or play by play, I went directly to the BL game thread and read line by line. Haha, awesome.

Posted by: lorecore

~~~

I've done that too, and it's pretty hilarious most of the time. But believe me, last night for the first 6-7 innings, it was just as abysmal and dark as the comments made it seem. Just lifeless.

This is sort of one of the games I was talking about before that hopefully is somewhat of a microcosm of the season. Obviously the Phillies didn't exactly jump out to a 2-0 lead on the year, but this was a game where they did look catatonic and like they had absolutely no shot of turning 5-2 in the 6th into a W.

That win, especially because of the way Hamels and the bullpen pitched was truly unexpected. Just as any sort of 2nd half run this team makes would be.

timr: "The meager return you're likely to get for Ruiz & even old, banged-up Utley at this point is probably not worth the loss of revenue that comes from trading the team's most popular player(s)."

You think the Phillies would lose more than $10M in fan revenue (what utley/ruiz are owned in 2nd half) if they traded those two away?

How many freaking Vote for Chooch shirts do you think they sell?

I am new here but have to say
A: Hamels is soft. It is the California in him.
B: He is a girly man. Check out the hair.
C: He is not hungry anymore since he signed that big deal.

That's it. Gotta ship him off somewhere.

"Look, you are either a World Series contender, or you are not. This team clearly is not. "

What a ridiculous statement.

Let me be clarify. The first part of what I quoted is ridiculous. The second part is probably true.

RedBurb: But didn't everybody know that the Cardinals were a WS contender in 2011?

So who made the prediction a while back that the trolls would come out of the woodwork and start bashing Hamels by calling him soft? You've won the bet.

Monty's comments about what the fans want is so bogus. The only unifying object to fans is if the Phillies win the world series or not.

You could put a poll on phillies.com about what moves the Phillies should do, and you'd never get higher than ~70% one way or the other. Trading Utley/Lee, benching Howard, calling up Ruf, and so on and so on.

Ironically, cutting Delmon Young would be the most lopsided fan vote ever, and the Phillies are doing the exact opposite - so yea Monty - the Phillies sure are trying to cater to us fans when making decisions aren't they?

Posted weeks ago that YAK would be on the team at years end,hate to be right. Has the knack of hitting about the time he has a good chance of being let go.
"Cole Hamels owes [an apology] to Delmon Young. Right,for the ball Yak booted lettina run score?

lorecore, I am with you. For about the last month or so, when I want to find out how the Phillies did on a late night game, I log on the BL site first. The reading is better than the sports websites without all those annoying commercial videos with sound or ads that pop up as I scroll my cursor across them to click on something else. Jason, you have created a monster. Thank you.

Everything the FO says regarding trading players you gotta take with a grain of salt. You don't want to lose leverage with your opponents.

Mike J., you nailed it in your pithy analysis of our pseudo-ace, Cole Hamels. I agree 100% with you.

Cyclic i was done when i saw Cole was starting to implode. I dont have cable in my sleeping quarters only in living room. Figure just go on net/bl'er and get the play by play. I was shocked to find out they tied it. Once it went to extra i figure they would blow it in that scenario 7 out of 10.

Ruben has the knack for seeing the HR trees instead of the forest of suck.

Thanks Cuz

Redburb, you have to slow your roll.
I have been watching this squad since 07, I think
I know a thing or two.

Funny how an 0-6 can drop your OPS almost 20 points.

Unbelievable that he still gets to start what few games against LHP we've had so far.

Mike J - Were you saying the same things about Hamels from 2010-12? He should've been traded then correct?

People who want to see Hamels traded now must have terrible market sense.

Fan since 2007? Wow. You must be a plethora of knowledge.

Hamels looks like he did in '09. Deep counts, foul balls and gopher balls. Just as in '09, it's a little early to start writing him off. But, since I've only been a fan since '76, I may be missing something here.

Pretty sure the last 2 Mike J. posts are a hilarious imposter. Good stuff.

Hugh - You obviously don't know as much as Mike J. See, he's been a fan since 2007. He knows this squad.

I hope so Cyclic. There are people who truly believe what that poster is saying though.

I'm with Cyclic. Mike J can't be for real.

Also, what the eff Rollins?

Last 21 Games (20 starts)

.238/.303/.250/.553, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR

Actively killing this team. Good thing he's back leading off.

Cyclic - By the way, since you are the President of the FREE RUF crusade, have you been to LV to see any games this year?

I am 5 years old. I watched the 07-08 games on DVR last year. What is your beef, Red?

Redburb is a pussy winkle!

And it's understandable that Revere got benched last night. In that same stretch (but just 16 starts for Ben), he's only

.329/.365/.357/.722

I know who I'd rather have leading off...

Redburb IS GETTING SOoooooo STEAMED!

Yak has plenty of time to sh*t the bed before the break. Another two weeks without an XBH should do it.

Utley will get a multi-year offer on the open market provided he finishes the season as some semblance of the current player he is. Probably multiple multi-year offers.

If the sellers want something to worry about, worry that the Phils go 5-2 in the next seven games, and then go 4-3 vs. the Nats and Braves. Not likely but far from impossible.

King of the Bop is back?

King of your momma!

It is beyond me why you cannot just disregard this nonsense. I have to go for my colonic now. Too much jizz in there.

Long time stalker, first time commenter.

It's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which it's worth it to trade Utley. Maybe with Papelbon in a deal that nets Castellanos +.

But other than that, I'm not seeing it. I'm pretty saber inclined, and that tells me even if Utley plays 100 games next year, he's going to be be well worth the 14 million qualifying offer. (He's already been worth 8.5 this year.)

And then there's the fact that he's a fan favorite who's a joy to watch (see his mad dash from 2B last night) and a guy who you want to be around young players. (Apparently he's helped Brown a lot with his video prep and swing.)

The bottom line is Utley, with his creaky joints and free agent status, is worth much more to even a rebuilding Phillies than anyone else. Why take a B prospect or two for a guy who's the face of your franchise and still has a good chance at being one of the top middle infielders in baseball for the next couple years?

If Utley finishes the year healthy, I'd give him a one year 15 million contract with a plate appearance based option for a second year at that salary.

And if somebody swoops in and beats that, you get a number one, which is likely going to be a better player than any prospects you receive for him in a midseason trade.

Of course Ruben will give him three years with an option, but that's another story.

Call me crazy, but why do we think Ruiz would only get a 1 year deal on the open market?

Red-- Unfortunately, no, I'm on the west coast. I've read boxscores and seen some highlights.

My campaign has evolved though. I understand he's not crushing the ball or hitting for much power. But I truly can't understand that a team which keeps a bat like his in AAA because of his defense would just hand a starting RF job to a guy who was a DH last year, is coming off ankle surgery, hadn't played the position at all in 6 years.

At this point, I'm all for giving Fields, Mitchell, Susdorf, pretty much anyone but DYoung a shot. Yeah I understand Mitchell and Susdorf are LH, but I also think they'd be an improvement over Laynce "I Don't Always Play, but When I Do, I Suck" Nix.

Like I said, it's evolved. Not so much FREE RUF as, ANYBODY BUT FVCKING DYOUNG.

jdt: "The bottom line is Utley, with his creaky joints and free agent status, is worth much more to even a rebuilding Phillies than anyone else."

I disagree. And since I disagree with that, I think he'll command a better prospect than you predict.

I do agree that whatever they trade him for must be considered as good as a comp pick in 2014, but I think they can do that.

The funny thing is looking back at this stretch of games, the team is very 2007 Mets-ish in the blowing of leads.

Washington series: that's a sweep on the 2011 team easily. Instead Papelbon makes it interesting and they end up losing a game they should've win.

NYM series: stake Hamels to a 3-0 lead and he coughs it up against the worst offense in baseball. Should've been 2 of 3.

SDP series: another potential sweep ruined by Papelbon. They thoroughly outplayed the Padres in the first two games and stole one last night.

This was basically the stretch where they should've won 8 of 9. Instead they barely won 5 of 9, blowing 3 leads they were staked to.

The torrid stretch they need to get back in the race just isn't going to happen.

So true. It's beyond comprehension why the team continues to trot Donut out there.

I mean, I'd still rather it be Ruf. He'd be a great option to spell Howard against some LHP and I actually think Manuel would do it (as he has with Frandsen a couple times). Not to mention who knows what's going on with Howard's knee. Then again, if it took a turn for the worse, I'd expect Ruf to be up anyway.

At this point, it's just about having players on the team that I want to watch. I definitely don't want to watch Delmon Young. Like I said last night, his presence alone makes being a fan frustrating. Last night, I was ripped right down the middle. For the sake of that game, I wanted him to hit a HR and tie it. For the sake of the next 20-25 games, I wanted him to fail (as usual). I hate feeling that way about a player on my team. It's yucky.

Cyclic: I don't think it's just because of his D. He's doing at AAA what he'd need to do in the MLB to be a worthwhile member of the team. Unfortunately, MLB pitching tends to be better, so he's likely to do less than that in the bigs.

That, coupled with his atrocious D (though I hear that's getting better), has more to do with it, I'd think. Plus, since he'd have to play in LF, you're essentially saying Dom has to go to RF, and he's barely competent defensively in left - and we we've seen that he tends to take his struggles in one facet of the game into the others.

buster-- I don't care what MLB numbers converters say, I'm 99% positive that .266/.344/.410/.754 in AAA would translate to markedly better than .230/.284/.419/.703 in MLB. The bump in OBP alone would be worth it. Though that point admittedly seems lost on this FO.

Dom has watched DYoung in RF most of the year. I have to think that would boost his confidence. Even he knows he can do better than that.

I would think you would need a considerably better haul for Utley than what they got for Victorino, which wasn't insignificant. (And who they weren't going to QO anyway.)

So maybe if a Wheeler for Beltran scenario pops up, but Sabean and the Giants get pretty mocked for that one.

And with the Yankees being the team that is currently linked to Utley, I'd be extra wary of their perpetually overhyped prospects.

Ruiz, Young, maybe even Rollins, you should pull the trigger. But you need to be very careful with Utley. He still has a lot to offer.

And I thought it was an unwritten rule that we only talk sell-off after losses.

After wins, it's all about how we're gonna line up our playoff rotation.

Cyclic: While possibly true, I wouldn't be so certain that said AAA slash would be significantly better than said MLB slash. Maybe a little, snd there's an argument to be made that even improving by a little could be worth it... And the difference in sample size is pretty drastic as well. But the Phillies have earned a lot of good will on the mid-to-low FA market in recent years by giving guys who get passed over a real chance to prove they can turn things around.

I'm not sure the very marginal improvement there (even assuming we split the difference for actual MLB numbers) is worth blowing all of that just so we can get poor D on both sides of the outfield.

And just because Delmon hasn't gotten cut doesn't mean that Brown (or we) should consider playing at the same level a good barometer for success.

From a June 10 Philly.com article...

http://articles.philly.com/2013-06-10/sports/39851690_1_darin-ruf-larry-greene-jr-dave-brundage

"Brundage said that Ruf has been dealing with some nagging injuries and hopes that a player who hit 38 home runs at Reading and three more for the Phillies last year can relax.

"He puts a lot of pressure on himself," Brundage said. "He has a lot of doubles, and I feel the home runs will come.""

~

Hmmm... this sounds... familiar. I feel like you can pretty much swap "Brundage" with "Manuel" and "Ruf" with "Howard".

How much more of a chance would you like them to give DYoung to prove he can turn things around?

Don't we already have have poor defense on both sides of the OF? Or are you saying Brown would only become poor if moved back to RF?

Let's say it's not an everyday starter we're talking about. Let's say Mayberry "earns" the RF job. Who would you rather have as a bat off the bench, DYoung or Ruf?

"I would think you would need a considerably better haul for Utley than what they got for Victorino, which wasn't insignificant."

Vic, himself, would have gotten a much better haul if he had been having a normal Vic season. But his OPS at the time of the trade was .724. Utley is having an .800 OPS season. There are only seven 2nd basemen who are better than that. He obviously has major injury issues but that's not really a big consideration when you're only looking to rent him for 2 months. In short, he has a lot more value than Vic had.

Team BA: 16th in MLB
Team SLG: 17th in MLB
Team OBP: 22nd in MLB
Runs: 23rd in MLB

"I don't care about walks. I care about production."

"if the team doesn't trade Utley or Ruiz, do you offer them Qualifying Offers? What are the benefits or drawbacks of doing so?"

I would probably trade both but, if we don't, I would absolutely make qualifying offers to both. There is literally no downside. You either get one more year of them at a more-than-fair rate of around $13 to $14M, or you get first round picks when they sign elsewhere. Unless these guys are really attached to Philly, I can virtually guarantee you that both would receive multi-year offers on the FA market.

What is the likelihood Ruiz and Utley come back on one year qualifying offers?

Not likely I'd think 2 years at probably close to the same qualifying per would be available by someone, especially for Utley.

So the next most pertinent question is, would the return you get for Utley and Ruiz rentals be better than 2 end of first round comp picks? I'm inclined to think the picks are actually somewhat better.

I always forget about the Wheeler-Beltran disaster.

I think a GM has to always keep the best case scenario (historically) in mind when negotiating trades. That's why when I see people say 'Well this guy won't get much, don't expect much for that guy,' etc etc, I think they are completely missing the point. There are many examples of teams overpaying for rental players, so Amaro should absolutely be asking for the moon with these guys.

With Utley, personally I don't think he's worth much as a rental because of decline and injury risk. He certainly would be more attractive for an AL team because he wouldn't have to play the field every day, but the wear and tear on his knees from the first four months of the season isn't going to magically disappear the minute he gets dealt. If I were a GM, I would look elsewhere for help.

But given the position he plays, I suppose Stark could be correct that he's in high demand. And if that's the case, Amaro should be asking for a blue chip prospect for him. Not sure what this ridiculous talk of 'losing revenue' is about. Who gives an F?

541: You would offer Ruiz a 1yr $14M deal?

541: The picks are top 15 protected, so we're talking a late first round pick or a sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2. Given the team's recent track record on late first round picks & sandwich picks, I'd rather have a prospect who actually has minor league statistics upon which he can be judged.

bap - I think it's now first 10 picks protected in the new CBA.

Another way of looking at Utley's injury history -- particularly since his issues now seem to be more chronic/old age than fluky -- is that it's a really big deal for a two month plus playoff rental.

You gave up a couple legit prospects for him and then the games start catching up and his performance suffers or he has to sit and you're really screwed. Over the course of a year he's probably going to give you good value even if he just plays 90 or 100 games.

But what games?

We'll see what kind of offers will come in for him, but I don't expect to be overwhelmed.

You're point still stands though. I would take a Top 100 prospect over a pick every time.

The name of this blog should be changed to Phillies Trade Possibilities because that's basically all that's posted about. You have Iceman or Icebrain as one poster called him going on incessantly for two years now about trading Cliff Lee as if it were an obsession with him and allies like TTI spill the same lines in their post for what seems like years on a regular basis. Some guys should occasionally vary their shtick. Oh, Iceman does only in his constant praise of Ben Revere.

This blog should be more than a Phillies Trade blog.

RedBurb: Didn't know that. Still, the most likely scenario is that you're going to wind up somewhere in the 2nd half of the 1st round or in the sandwich zone. Obviously, that's of value -- which is why I'd make a qualifying offer to these guys if we don't trade them. But I would think that an established prospect would be of more value than the extra draft pick. At the very least, the established prospect is going to be a whole lot closer to the major leagues.

Yeah. I remembered that because the Mets were having a debate with MLB because they had the 11th pick in the draft and it wasn't protected. They finished tied with the team who had the 10th pick (Royals maybe?) and had a coin flip to decide who got which pick. They were arguing with the MLB because they wanted Bourn or Swisher and didn't want to give up first round compensation for it.

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