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Friday, May 03, 2013

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Evidence that Delmon is intended to be the starting RF, isn't it?

Listen, as Charlie has told us several times this year, he's the manager, and he can do whatever he wants. And that means he's going to continue doing stupid sh!t like this night in and night out. No point in getting aggravated about it anymore.

Jack, once Charlie gave DYoung his seal of approval, only divine intervention could have kept Dyoung from the starting RF job.

As I was saying ...

Raise your hand if you DID NOT see this coming?


Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Jack: Indeed. Also further evidence that Charlie has no f*cking clue what a "split" is, unless there happen to be bananas involved.

DWOS has a point.

If there's one thing we've known about Cholly for 8 years now, it's that he's bad at filling out a lineup card. Fortunately, when the issue is LNix vs. DYoung, it probably doesn't matter.

Actually, after DYoung hit a homerun in his first at bat only divine intervention could have kept him from the starting RF job.

It's odd because they clearly have access to splits because they're constantly starting guys based on meaningless samples against certain pitchers (e.g., JMJ's hit 1 HR off this guy. Start him.) They just ignore the ones that actually have good samples (RHP/LHP).

Nix actually has a .976 OPS against Nolasco for his career too...in 16 PA.


That's right up UC's alley when it comes to splits.

I'd say Pettibone is due to get lit up, but you know ... the Marlins.

Charlie must really hate Nix.

I actually looked this up last night. Brown has killed Nolasco (I'd bat him fifth). Nix also should play over D-Young.

Charlie Manuel is like the movie Donnie Darko, to me. Makes absolutely no sense, and when other people try to explain it to me, I know they're full of sh!t the second they open their mouth.

In defense of sitting Nix - Cholly may want Nix's lefty bat available for PH duty in the late innings. The Marlins have a righty-heavy bullpen - the only lefty likely to see the late innings is Michael Dunn, and the righties are all much weaker against left-handed batters (Cishek, Webb, Qualls, Rauch).

Fatalotti: That is a brilliant, & absolutely appropriate comparison.

BedBeard: On the Lee trade, you are correct that Saunders was in play and that Pineda's name didn't come up in any of the stories at the time.

The story out of Seattle afterward was that the Ms offered Saunders, but Rube insisted on Gillies. I made a fuss about that but was shouted down by posters (Jack among them) who said I was an idiot thinking that Saunders was a better prospect.

Aumont had been shifted to the pen because he struggled with his control as a starter because of his need to throw secondary pitches. When the Phils annouced he would be shifted back to starter, I said that was a mistake. I actually had some posters agree with me on that one.

Aumont lost a full year of development because of that bonehead decision.

Fatalotti: Mad World

Three Phillies make Baseball America's Prospect Hotsheet this week: Jesse Biddle (No. 6), Darin Ruf (No. 11) and Maikel Franco (No. 12). Tops on the list: former prospect Jonathan Villar .556/.586/.963 (15-for-27), 7 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBIs, 1 BB, 6 SO, 5-for-5 SB.

Fatalotti: Mad World

'Donnie Darko' has ruined this team.

"Jack, once Charlie gave DYoung his seal of approval, only divine intervention could have kept Dyoung from the starting RF job."

Or me waving some pictures in Roob's office?

Philibuster: I will direct you to read the beerleaguer threads for the days proceeding the Lee trade. Not many thought it was a good deal at all. Phillies would have been better off letting him play out the year and taking the draft pick compensation.

Three Phillies make Baseball America's Prospect Hotsheet this week: Jesse Biddle (No. 6), Darin Ruf (No. 11) and Maikel Franco (No. 12). Tops on the list: former prospect Jonathan Villar .556/.586/.963 (15-for-27), 7 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBIs, 1 BB, 6 SO, 5-for-5 SB.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Friday, May 03, 2013 at 03:57 PM

Welcome to Beerleaguer.

clout's actually loved the Lee trade, despite what he may pretend to say now. Getting JC Ramirez was a haul in his eyes.

lorecore: I did think JC could end up being the best of the lot, but he was also the furthest away. And, no I didn't love the Lee deal and especially didn't love Gillies or what they planned to do with Aumont. Of course you know that.

BTW, which screen name were you using then?

Jbird: I was reasonably certain that was the Beerleaguer consensus.

However, even being a participant in Beerleaguer, I'm rather glad that Beerleaguer doesn't make the Phillies' decisions.

Villar also has 7 errors and a .945 FP this year.

Lorecore: To be fair to Clout (I feel gross just saying that) here's one pull quote I found the day after teh Lee trade:

Forget the money for a moment. Look at it strictly from a baseball decision. Your choice is:

1. To have Halladay & Lee in the same rotation for 1 year, making it arguably baseball's best, and then Halladay for 3 years more.

2. To have Halladay alone and 3 A-ball prospects from the system ranked 24th of 30 who won't be ready to play at the big league level (assuming they ever will) until all of your key players have become free agents.

Which is the better baseball decision?

Posted by: clout | Friday, December 18, 2009 at 11:15 AM

"Questionable Lineup?"

With Charlie at the helm? Surely, you jest.

clout was right on the money.

Again, I like this trade a lot. I've been a big defender since it wa announced. But I think the spin from Rube & Monty about how money has nothi9ng to do with this doesn't jibe with how it went down and with who.

Posted by: clout | Thursday, December 17, 2009 at 06:43 PM

lorecore: typical.

Did Quintero go through waivers?
I didn't see anybody pick him up and I don't see him on I-Pigs or Reading Fightin's roster.

No word yet on Quintero?
DFA'd 5 days ago; I thought waiver claims had to be made within 3 days. Am I wrong on that?

Bubba & I simul-posted (almost).

Quintero passed waivers, according to MLBR.

Quintero cleared waivers & will report to the Iron Pigs.

sneed: The thing I watch his Villar is his K rate. He's not a HR hitter (Texas league is a notorious hitters league so you can ignore his 11 HRs last season) but he strikes out like one.

He made some improvement last season after repeating Double A, but if he's in triple digits in Ks at Trip A this season, that's a reason to be skeptical.

On defense he has great range and great arm, but makes a million errors. That's probably a youth thing. We must apply the Shawon Dunston Rule: Dunston made 32 errors at age 23 and it declined from there. He wound up being one of the best fielding SS in the league.

A big point in Villar's favor: he's been young for his leagues all the way up.

Villar also has 7 errors and a .945 FP this year.

If Villar were still with the Phillies they'd insist he work on his defense at SS by having him play RF every day.

jbird: Don't be disappointed. lorecore omits the context (and part of the post itself).

Virtually all the beat writers said the team could not afford both Lee and Halladay. That being the case, you had to analyze the trades on the basis of prospects given up versus prospects coming in, which is what most of us were doing then:

"Despite the prevailing view here, Marson and Donald are not headed for superstardom. Donald doesn't have the range to play SS at the major league level. Marson has defensive issues as well and lacks power. Knapp and Carrasco have the most upside, but Carrasco has struggled with command. Most young pitchers never master it. He could end up being a total flop.

As for the incoming, I think Ramirez has the most upside, could end up being as good as Knapp. Aumont has setup, and perhaps closer, potential. I'm not as high on Gillies as others here, don't think he'll hit at higher levels, but he could end up being a useful spare part because of his speed and defense.

There really isn't a big gap there and what gap there is was a reasonable price to pay for a half season of Lee.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, December 16, 2009 at 10:12 AM"

Thus I supported the deal in the context of a tradeoff with Halladay. But, obviously, I would've preferred to keep both Lee and Halladay, which is what my later post said.

lorecore is just being his usual scumbag self.

Well, J.C. Ramirez has definitely ended up as good as Knapp.

Jack: Knapp is out of baseball. J.C. just has one foot out.

The smarter move long-term would have been just to sign Lee to a long-term deal and keep the prospects. Lee wanted to stay and would have taken a fair deal from all accounts.

Hindsight being 20/20 and all.

I believe Knapp is a student at Penn now...FWIW. So at least he was smart enough to do that.

NEPP: Exactly right. The beat writers were told there was no way the team could afford both, thus Lee had to go, and that's what they printed. Obviously, that was a lie.

NEPP- so you're saying the smart thing to do would've been to not acquire Halladay and kept Lee for '10-present? So in that hypothetical scenario, we'd have still gotten Oswalt that year, right?

Didn't see this mentioned, but the Pirates just called up Jose Contreras. He had three appearances in AAA, giving up 3 hits and 1 earned run (on a HR) and striking out 5/walking none in three full innings.

I'd take him over four of the guys currently in the 'totally not a problem, guys' bullpen for the Phils.

Possibly...but there would have been other options as we'd still have had Drabek and d'arnaud in the system. Both still had a TON of value then and even now with d'arnaud (given that he was traded for the reigning CY winner over the winter).

So yeah, the correct move, if one were told they could only have 1 Ace pitcher, was to keep the one that was already on the roster, a fan favorite and willing to take a team-friendly deal.

Doc was Rube's white whale unfortunately.

Also, given that we won a WS with a rotation of Hamels, Myers, Moyer and Blanton, perhaps focusing 100% of our resources on the rotation wasn't the smartest move...eh?

The smarter move long-term would have been just to sign Lee to a long-term deal and keep the prospects. Lee wanted to stay and would have taken a fair deal from all accounts.

Hindsight being 20/20 and all.

Funny. I remember making this argument at the time.

Funny, I do too...the moment I heard Lee was traded, I said it was a mistake.

NEPP- well, if the idea was maximizing the window- and I believe everyone was on-board with that idea at the time- I would think the 'smartest move' would've been to put the best team on the field possible. So if the choice was between Halladay and Lee, since Doc was the better pitcher, Amaro made the correct choice.

I'd have chosen secret option C: keeping Lee and trading for Halladay, which we were told wasn't an option at the time due to money limitations. Like clout says, that was a lie. But all things being equal, I think they did the right thing, and just did a sh*tty job getting adequate return for Lee.

I can see how people might see it differently, though.

I can't believe we're rehashing the Lee deal again...to be fair, there were plenty of indications that Lee was set to test FA and would not have been willing to accept a team-friendly deal with only 3 guaranteed years (as Halladay accepted). The FO had stuck to their "no SP deals over 3 years" mantra until they re-signed Lee. I would guess the number of years, and not the AAV, was the sticking point in any talks that had taken place up to that point.

... to be fair, there were plenty of indications that Lee was set to test FA and would not have been willing to accept a team-friendly deal with only 3 guaranteed years ...

Cite one.

Lee and our most MLB ready position prospect for Roy Halladay?

Again, its a wash almost.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 03:32 PM

And that's when the rumor was Lee and M. Taylor for Doc...well before we were giving up Drabek and d'Arnaud.

We give up Drabek and Rube should be fired...unless is Drabek in lieu of Lee...and then Rube should simply be beaten with a hose.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 08:16 PM

Yeah, huge fan of the trade.

****Why is everyone crying about Drabek? Who cares? The man is still a prospect and not a proven winner like Doc. Screw him! ****

So you think trading our #1 MLB pitcher, our #1 pitching prospect and potentially our #1/#2 and #3 positional prospects in Brown/Taylor and d'Arnaud for Halladay and an oft-injured French Canadian closer prospect is a good deal...interesting.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 09:57 PM

Why would the Phillies go out of their way to deal Lee to Seattle if all that's in it for them is Aumont and they lose Drabek? Doesn't jive.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 09:57 PM

An interesting exchange.

That is a terrible pathetic disgusting deal if true. I am sickened by it.

I'd rather they non-tender Blanton than make this stupid deal.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 10:20 PM

Latest quote from the FO:

"This deal is looking worse all the time"-Phillies GM Lando Calrissian

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 10:31 PM

On another note, Jack was vociferously in favor of the deals.

How is MG not all over this Dubee-Mitch Williams-Halladay feud? This is right up his alley.

Other than the fact that Lee was openly shocked and stunned by the deal that he found out about through the news rather than from the GM...and said several times how much he LOVED playing in Philly.

Rube made him an offer at the Winter Meetings, Lee's agent countered and Rube traded him the next day without getting back to him.

"On another note, Jack was vociferously in favor of the deals."

I was?

My memory is that like most people, I thought it was stupid to not just keep both Halladay and Lee, and if they had a budget, they should've just non-tendered Blanton or not brought back Moyer.

It surprised me too...you were arguing with me that it was a great deal.

GTown - I'll just go back to the previous thread, where the work was already done for me:
Fatalotti:

After talking to Lee’s agent at the Winter Meetings, the Phillies came to the conclusion that he could not be retained long term. Lee said how he liked Philadelphia, but he wanted to test the free agent market and receive the maximum amount of money he could, whether that be from the Phillies, the Yankees, or whoever. You can’t begrudge him that, because unlike Halladay, he’s never received a huge payday, and at 31 going on 32, this window is probably going to be his one big paycheck. He stressed it wasn’t personal, it was business. Fair enough.

Phuture Phillies 12/15/09
But why would a team look to trade a guy that they still have for one more season when they feel that they can compete and “like their core?” Well, according to a “source close to Lee,” he is set to test the free agent waters following the 2010 season. Of course he is.
~ WFNY, 7/1/09
Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, May 03, 2013 at 03:55 PM

Jack - What is the feud about?

NEPP: I found this quote from the same thread:

I hope ownership really enjoys that 9 million they saved by dealing Lee. I don't normally criticize ownership's spending (because for the most part they have done just fine the last few years), but this seems just stupid, both economically and baseball-wise.

But hey, at least we got another toolsy OF prospect.

Posted by: Jack | Monday, December 14, 2009 at 10:21 PM

NEPP: Re-reading that thread, it looks like we were having something of a minor argument. We both agreed it was stupid to give up Lee.

I was just more willing to give the benefit of the doubt in acquiring Aumont and giving up Drabek than you were. We both made valid points, I thought.

My bad, Jack...yeah you didnt like it. We were arguing more about Aumont and Gillies actually.

Sure sounds like he wanted to leave...from 2 days after the trade.

SEATTLE -- Cliff Lee thought he was staying in Philadelphia -- for the rest of his career.

The Phillies' postseason star proposed a routine counteroffer on a contract extension Wednesday, then headed for the Mississippi River near his Arkansas home to hunt.

He got some stunning news on the drive there.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. called to tell Lee he had been traded to Seattle for three prospects in a four-team deal that brought Roy Halladay to the Phillies. It was the first time that two Cy Young Award winners were dealt on the same day.

Speaking by cell phone Thursday night while beginning a long-planned vacation in Puerto Rico, the 2008 AL Cy Young winner said he was in "disbelief and shock." The 31-year-old left-hander had been excited to rejoin the Phillies for a run at another World Series.

Instead, he's headed to his third team in five months.

"At first, I didn't believe it. I thought we were working out an extension with the Phillies," Lee said. "I thought I'd be spending the rest of my career there. ... I was under the impression they wanted to keep me there for a long time.

"In my mind, it was going to happen."

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4753045

Chris in VT: Fatalotti, & a NY radio station. Well, I stand corrected. If anyone had their finger on the pulse of Lee's decision making process, surely it was them.

I happen to think r00b wanted Halladay in '09, settled for Lee, & had no intention of trying to sign the latter to any kind of extension: he was still focused on acquiring Halladay. The fact that r00b kept blathering about the need to get prospects back -- something the man has never cared two sh*ts for in the rest of his tenure -- & the fact that he had essentially traded Lee to Seattle before the Winter Meetings even ended appear to support that theory.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4748216

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4745103

This is turning into the French revolution in here. J'accuse!! To bad Robespierre didn't have beeleaguer bankruptcy.

This is the best part:

He dismissed them as rumors -- especially, he said, when he asked the team and "the Phillies kind of downplayed it, made it seem like it wasn't real."

"Then the next morning I found out it was real," he said.

Real classy by Rube and the FO.

The real bitch of it is, the Phillies only got 2 good years out of Halladay. That's not much of a window.

GTown, I think you misread the above post. I think that post was directed AT me. I made the contention that Lee did want to stay here after the 2009 season.

Wonder if halladay and the team will continue their relationship next year. 2 year deal at #3 starter money?

GTown - the post was directed at Fatalotti, he wasn't a source.
The sources were Phuture Phillies and a radio station in NY. I'm not saying it was valid, correct, etc, you asked me to "cite one" and I did.

This is such a dumb thing to be arguing over again. The trade is years in the past at this point, was clearly a mistake whether you were judging it at the time or in hindsight for a variety of reasons, and really isn't worth getting worked up about.

But I'm sure it'll give a nice boost to Beerleaguer's post totals, so there's that.

Wont Doc have to prove that he's actually a 3rd starter instead of the guy who's got a 4.87 ERA since the start of the 2012 season.

Who gets the bigger deal this winter, kk or halladay?

KK almost certainly will...unless, of course, Doc figures out how to pitch again.

Roy Halladay has an 83 ERA+ since the beginning of 2012.

That's pretty much the career ERA+ of Chris Volstad.

G those two years were 2 of the best I have seen in pinstripes. That being said Cody Fn Ross and 1 blood nil and this team might have won a WS. I would take that 7 days a week and twice on sun. Now the lee trade. That isn't even worth re hashing. We ll know with doc lee and cole this team had a better chance. Rube was such a ........... U get the pict. And maybe we could have used those prospects and got a real OF at the time.

KK still has a year of team control left doesn't he? I believe he's still arb-eligible.

That is correct, Chris.


Good catch.

I'd imagine that the Phillies will likely try to extend him this year at some point.

KK has a 116 ERA+ since the start of 2011.

Or trade him...an extra year of team control adds some value

Definitely a distinct possibility. I'd imagine that KK has good trade value for a lot of clubs .

KK is actually the most valuable trade chip left on the team. A cost-controlled injury-free #3 pitcher. Hard to believe.

The way KK has pitched for the last couple years, he's more than a #3. Closer to a 2 for most teams, and would probably be the ace for several clubs.

I think KK would be a #3/4 on the teams that would want to trade for him (ie playoff bound or playoff hopeful clubs) But yes, that is mostly true, Chris. He's more like a very solid #3 than a #2.


KK's transformation from fringe #5 to solid #3 has been enjoyable to follow.

Chris in VT & Fatalotti: My mistake, I did read that incorrectly. In any event I imagine this will be a subject argued about for as long as there's a Beerleaguer in which to do so.

I think KK would be a #3/4 on the teams that would want to trade for him (ie playoff bound or playoff hopeful clubs) But yes, that is mostly true, Chris. He's more like a very solid #3 than a #2.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, May 03, 2013 at 06:58 PM

Maybe, but I could name a couple playoff-hopefuls off the top of my head that would love KK as their #2...Baltimore, Oakland, Atlanta, Texas...I'm sure there are more if I dug in, but that's just who came to mind.

KK should have a ton of trade value, and Amaro should strongly consider dealing him if a full rebuild is in the works.

Great play by Jimmy.

While I love that Charlie is finally batting Utley out of the 2-hole, it's puzzling that he's doing it against a right handed starter and against the Fish, who have but one left handed reliever.

Just goes to show that there's no understanding or predicting Manuel's moves.

Michael Young doing what Michael Young does best.

Did I actually hear TBag say this could be two on Polly's ground ball up the middle? What a dope. That was a great play by Rollins.

Time to start running on every pitch when M. Young bats. The man is a menace.

Well, he's better in RF than Abreu, at any rate.

Really expected Delmon Young to completely eff that up.

Was that a routine catch or did he make a quality catch there I am listening on the radio...

I turned the game on just in time to see Delmon Young make a sorta good catch.

Michael Young has a 130 wRC+, but a -0.38 WPA.

All those groundball double plays are pretty much canceling out all the singles he's hitting.

That was MYoung's 8th GIDP in 30 games, right? That would put him on pace for 43 for the year.

I said it last night: when Howard starts hitting to the opposite field -- as he did last night -- he's close.

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