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Friday, May 31, 2013


Durbin DFA'd! There is a God!

Gomez was traded for Santana and JJ Hardy. This is the first time he's ever hit.

See ya later, Durbinator.

If there was ever a time for a JW photoshop thread header this season, it's for Durbin getting cut.

More like Santana as a "20 year old in AA". We know birth dates in Spanish don't quite translate to Murrigan. He is probably 23 give or take.

Feels like a sweep.

Calling Aramis a Phillies Killer is an insult to the Rod Barajas and Scott Hairston's of the world.

Vs Phils .259/.301/.514 in 336 PA
Career: .286/.344/.503 in 7681 PA

I cheered more for Durbin's release then the last job I just got! YES! YES! It's a great day!

"If there was ever a time for a JW photoshop thread header this season, it's for Durbin getting cut."

+1 ... and when Martinez is finally released, do we get new bunting and user logins? Perhaps an angelic choir auto-play when loading the page.

Bees boll has been very good to me.
Plastic surgery has not.

Juan Fransisco is still on the market, and can't be worse then Mini-Mart.

Juan Francisco plays 3B for the Braves

joe l is my brother with the double digit IQ in the family.

Top 10 Active Philly Killers (% of OPS vs PHI over career OPS, min 25 PA vs PHI)

1 Scott Hairston 137.8%
2 Hunter Pence 136%
3 Anderson Hernandez 135.2%
4 Miguel Tejada 133.9%
5 Pedro Alvarez 131.4%
6 Miguel Olivo 129.2%
7 Casey Kotchman 129.1%
8 Nate Schierholtz 128.8%
9 Starlin Castro 126.4%
10 Justin Ruggiano 125%

+1 ... and when Martinez is finally released, do we get new bunting and user logins? Perhaps an angelic choir auto-play when loading the page.

Posted by: joe l

I'm going to change my name to Chad Young, so that likely will never happen.

If Barajas was still active, he'd be 3rd on the list.

Who had DFA'd by June 1st in the pool?

I agree with WP that the trend is that many prestige would-be-FA will be locked up by their teams. However, I do not think that there will be zero impact FA signings, and I do not think that it will be impossible for the Phillies to improve significantly through smart Free Agent signings.

I can see the decrease in the sexiest names hitting FA as doing one of two things:

A) It depresses the market, so that mid-tier guys don't get bumped up to top-tier salaries as a result of getting dragged higher by the mega-deals. (possible)

B) It drives up the price on mid-tier guys because they are the only game in town. This seems likely at the outset, but remember that teams will be sinking more cash into locking up those top-tier guys and maybe there won't be enough left over to drive up the price on what is available.

I have no real insight into how it will go down, but obviously nobody ever went broke betting on player salaries going up, so B seems likely, but maybe not as pronounced as it might otherwise have been.

Yes there will be fewer sexy free agent names, but they're not going away entirely, and being smart with who you do sign will be just as important. And, while it's not as big an advantage as it used to be, bigger budgeted teams will still have some advantage in that area

...Unless they sunk all their money into a sub-replacement level 1B.

I will now light myself on fire.

Not a DFA...flat out released.

welcome to the riversharks or Ducks Chad. Once again RAJ trying to correct his mistakes but this time a month later than anyone could stand

Found out my Great Uncle is going to the game tonight and is having dinner with Ruben Amaro before the game. What i'd give to be there for that.

Is there anyone on this board who didn't foresee Rube having to do exactly what he just did? Anyone?

Chad Freaking Durbin? What sentient being would have given this stiff over a million dollars? I think Durbin is a good guy and he was good for the Phillies before. But he was pretty clearly done from the first pitch he threw in Spring Training.

I am continually amazed at Ruben Amaro Jr.'s lack of ability to judge talent. A complete lack.

Juan Francisco plays 3B for the Braves

Posted by: Nik | Friday, May 31, 2013 at 02:26 PM

Somebody missed yesterday's news.

Dangerous or diasterous?

I was pretty excited by this news until I saw that Joe Savery was his replacement. Of course, Savery could pitch to the 5.50 ERA that I am expecting he will pitch to, and he'd still be a vast improvement.

Tonight's lineup:

1. Revere - 8
2. Hernandez - 4
3. Rollins - 6
4. Howard - 3
5. Brown - 7
6. D. Young - 9
7. Galvis - 5
8. Quintero - 2
9. Hamels - 1

Know all these signings where our saving grace is "well, at least if it doesn't work out, it's easy to cut bait because they don't cost too much..."?

We're seeing the first real exercising of the "didn't work out" portion this year.

Here's hoping Delmon Young isn't too far behind (except that he hit a HR last night in the cleanup spot, which will likely extend his stay through at least the ASB).

Durbin had a 2014 buyout!?!

"The Phils get Yovani Gallardo (3-5, 4.79) in the series opener. The Mexican right-hander is off to a typically slow start, averaging just 5.6 innings per start."

Buckle up for another 1 run, 4 hit effort from the Fightin' Phils tonight!

I suppose we've graduated past even asking why the hell Nix isn't getting the start in RF at this point?...

mm: can we take a collection to pay your great-uncle to call him Ruin Tomorrow Jr. to his face for the length of the evening?

Brown looking at an 0fer tonight with the added pressure of hitting ahead of DYoung.

As Jack has frequently pointed out, the problem with "if it doesn't work out, we'll just cut bait" is that the process of not working out invariably costs the team real games.

dyoung drops to 6 in the lineup vs a steps.

Durbin was exactly what BL consensus thought he would be. Ditto Delmon Young. Maybe Rube should put potential roster moves to a BL vote before making them. Couldn't be a worse method than the one he is using now.

It's hard to get excited over dropping Durbin, when Savery is your replacement. Maybe he can play a little OF to push Nix farther down the bench.

You know what is sad? Some/Many of us clamoring for Laynce Nix. :(

Willard - For me, not starting Nix isn't just one more Cholly-ism. Nix has looked awful AWFUL the last few weeks.

The Phillies have 42 games before the ASB. Exactly 9 of those games are against teams that currently have a winning record.

Get ready for some serious polarization on Beerleaguer in the next month and a half.

It was time to cut Durbin a month ago. Anyone could see he had nothing even way back in spring training. Predictable end to a predictably stupid signing.

Anybody know how to upload images here? I made a simple one for our enjoyment.

It was time to release Durbin. Arguably long past time.

I just saw today's lineup. Charlie may hate Hamels. Or may be challenging him to throw a shut-out.

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN 20m
Friday night vs Milwaukee

Hi guys. Can I play?

I kinda feel that Durbin should be paying us for letting him pitch as long as he did for as badly as he did. But it doesn't work that way. Ruben took his chances with Durbin, and it was a bust. I had hoped it wouldn't be, but I know the overwhelming prediction was that it would be.

DFA Durbin. An idea everyone on Beerleaguer can positively endorse.

Addendum to my 2:58 post:

There is also a second problem with "if it doesn't work out, we'll just cut bait:" the opportunity cost. We signed Durbin & banked on him to work out. Now that he hasn't, we're stuck with the horrible Joe Savery, who isn't likely to work out either and who will almost certainly be worse than the guy we could have signed in the first place.

Mini Mart Part Deux has arrived.

"The Phillies have 42 games before the ASB. Exactly 9 of those games are against teams that currently have a winning record."

Why I'd like to see them get to the break with 50 wins. Need to go 24-18 to get it done.

Why the buyout on Durbin?

BAP: Obviously, I largely agree with you.

I think it can be simplified though, in this case. You don't have to weigh risks and rewards and opportunity costs.

You simply have to ask "Is it a good idea to sign Chad Durbin to a guaranteed major-league contract?"

The answer to that is always no.

Wish I had the time to go back and look at those who said there's no way they'd cut Durbin because he had guaranteed salary. Predictably, that turned out to be wrong.

It's the same reason I think DYak will be gone before the season is over.

Of course, Jack just got done preaching how it doesn't matter what Durbin did, because the offense sucks so much that he could have a zero ERA and it wouldn't make a difference.

So case closed. The Durbin signing didn't hurt the team.

Pedro - One-way plane fare, shipping his locker room materials to his home, and a Phils' Fan Pack.

I predicted a Durbin DFA in my preseason prediction but said June. Oh well. Off by a day.

Iceman - I think the difference between Durbin and Young is that FO has some idea of how to evaluate pitching success (though are less good at projecting it and valuing how to use what they have) and seem to have relatively little idea of how to evaluate offensive success.

Durbin's failure is pretty obvious to everyone. Delmon Young could really struggle, hurt the team, but do the kinds of things that FO values as productive.

I guess it means they recall Rosenberg. Yippee.

Phillies rocking 3 Venezuelans in the starting lineup tonight.

By my records, the Phillies have only done this once before in franchise history.

Carlos Silva makes his only start in a phillies uniform during the second half of a double header, while Tomas Perez fills in for an inured David Bell at 3B, and Abreu starts in RF.

As correctly identified here by many, the problem with signing of Durbin is the opportunity cost - there were better relievers available. Brandon Lyon was one of them - I've forgotten the others. Because relievers are generally fungible, I was agnostic about the Durbin signing. Boy was I wrong!

I wonder if anyone is out there - that's better than Joe Savery - that might be available? Sometimes they just need a change of scenery.

I know John Rauch is around, but he wasn't very good in Miami.

Iceman, I'm having a mental block.


"I predicted a Durbin DFA in my preseason prediction but said June. Oh well. Off by a day."

Well, that, and the fact that he was released, and not DFA'd...

"I predicted a Durbin DFA in my preseason prediction but said June. Oh well. Off by a day."

MG, that's probably because not even you expected him to be as bad as he was. ;)

awh, I believe you'd know him better as No-D. Yak a reference to how he looks when he "runs."

Pretty sad when a guy has multiple nicknames, all of the derogatory nature.

Just one more case study reaffirming JW's "you can't go home again" theory pertaining, particularly, to the Phillies.

DFA'd or Released? What's the difference? Let's not let this small technicality ruin what is otherwise a great day in Phillies History.

54 games in the 2011 team had allowed 182 runs (3.10 ERA). The team was 34-20 (they scored 225 runs -- that's a 32-22 PWL).

If by some counterfactual nonsense the 2013 had allowed 182 runs, their PWL would be 28-26.

Again, the 2011 Phils were the best run prevention team since they lowered the mound. If the 2011 Phils had that pace, they'd probably still be around .500. The offense is simply terrible. As bad as he's been (and this isn't the perfect measure), Durbin has no losses this year. He just made the losses worse.

WP, thanks. It's hard to keep up with all the nicknames for players that are used here.

No-D. DYak. Still the same bad player.

Sad, too, because he's only 27.

"Delmon Young could really struggle, hurt the team, but do the kinds of things that FO values as productive."

Sophist: "Production" = Dummyball.

"If the 2013 Phils had that pace, ..."

awh - If the Phils used Brandon Lyons in all of Durbin's spots, how many more wins would they have?

This is of course baseless speculation - and discussed in the last thread - but it's not like Durbin gave up leads and it's not like this offense has made many comebacks or is capable of it.

DFA would mean that he'd likely wind up in AAA, where he'd inevitably be called back up again soon enough (just like Savery who has replaced him, or worse yet Mini Mart...).

In my mind that's a VERY important distinction. He's gone gone with the outright release.

Wow Savery for Durbin? I'm excited that should really make a difference! Let's move onto getting rid of Horst? Are there not any hardthrowing young guys that we can pick up. We seen all of these guys in the Phillies minir leagues many times before! Let 's try someone new?

"Sad, too, because he's only 27."

Huh, and I thought for sure he was at least 47 (based on how he moves...)

awh you have to be this old to ride with Rube....Lyon didnt meet the criteria almost though

gbrettfan: if you want to email me mick at I can help you with that image. I want to see the masterpiece.

Win Probability Added 2013

Wilton Lopez: -1.22
Lyon: -0.82
Rauch: -0.75
Horst: -0.52
Durbin: -0.39
Bastardo: -0.37
Adams: -0.28

Durbin and Adams have about the same IP. Horst has 6 more IP, more than any other relief pitcher.

Lyon has as many "meltdowns" as Horst (4). Better than Durbin -- no defending Durbin -- but Lyon has allowed 40% of inherited runners to score.

"DFA would mean that he'd likely wind up in AAA, where he'd inevitably be called back up again soon enough."

True enough. They needed to completely release him in order to protect them from themselves.

Sophist: That is a BS stat. You need neutralize WPA by leverage for relievers.

Chad Durbin has the 12th worst WPA/li index in the majors this year at -.62. The Brewers Kameron Loe has the worst at -1.34

* for relievers

Ruben is desperately searching the baseball database for another middle reliever named Chad. He feels strongly that no team should be without a Chad in the pen. It's bad Juju.

I'm looking at Chad Gaudin for 2014. What do you guys think?

Gaudin is a freaking lock for the 2014 Phillies.

#1. He sucks
#2. Over 30
#3. Coming off career year
#4. Owns the Phillies (2.02 ERA .975 WHIP in 13IP)
#5. Named Chad

Durbin's worst WPA appearances

4/5 Royals (-.11): Phils down 4-5 in the 7th. Horst loads the bases with none out. Durbin allows a SF, BB, 3B. 4-9 when he leaves. Phils lose 4-13.

4/7 Royals (-.11): Relieves Hamels in the 6th with 2 outs and _23. BB, 1B. 4-8. Pitches a 123 7th. Phils lose 9-8.

4/1 Braves (-.10): Durbin relives Hamels to start the 6th with the Phils down 5-3. Gives up 2 runs. 7-3 Braves. Braves win 7-5.

4/21 Cardinals (-0.03): Phils win this game 7-3. Durbin allowed an inherited runner to score, breaking the 2-2 tie.

5/25 Nats (-0.02): Phils win 5-3. Durbin allowed 2 on with no out, and Horst bailed him out. No runs scored.

4/8 Mets (-0.01): Durbin relives Doc in the 5th with a man on first and none out. Allows 2 runs to score. Mets go up from 5-1 to 7-1.

5/30 Red Sox (-0.01): this was yesterday. A 2-6 game goes to a 2-9 game.

Those are his biggest WPA negatives. Looks like after that first week of the season, the Phils stopped using him in high leverage situations. Couple of games early in the year that could have easily gone the other way, AEBE.

Dragon - Trade for Chad Qualls? Is Chad Cordero still pitching somewhere?

lorecore - Not sure I understand how WPA/li works which is why I didn't post it and just noted the number of IP and then broke down Durbin's appearances at 4:09.

Not surprised his metric is so bad given those 4/1-4/8 appearances where Manual went to him in tighter spots. The bulk of his -WPA comes from the Braves and Royals series. He was more and more a garbage time picture, from what I can quickly see, after that.

Also note that Durbin relieved either Hamels or Doc after less than the 6th inning in 3 of 7 of those games. In a 4th loss, he relieved Horst after Horst loaded the bases. Yesterday, Pettibone went just 5 IP with Horst throwin 2 IP, then Stutes before Durbin came in to pitch the 9th with the Phils down 2-6 already.

Durbin stinks, but so does everything else about those -WPA games with the exception of 1-2.

The Phils get Yovani Gallardo (3-5, 4.79) in the series opener. The Mexican right-hander is off to a typically slow start, averaging just 5.6 innings per start.

You tryin to say we typically start off slow?
Das f8cked, homey!

"awh - If the Phils used Brandon Lyons in all of Durbin's spots, how many more wins would they have?"

Sophist, neither one of us can answer that.

However, the way Lyon has been pitching - especially of late in the 8th inning - it's possible Charlie would have used him in a different role than Durbin.

Once Charlie realized he couldn't trust Durbin, he used him sparingly. 7 of his last 9 appearances have been in blowouts - one way or another. That's an clear indication that Charlie didn't trust him in close games.

Lyon has pitched much better of late. his last 7 appearances have been in the 7th inning or later, and 6 of those have been in the 8th or later. 11 of his last 13 appearances have been scoreless (R charged to him).

From his gamelogs it looks like he's morphed into their setup man.

He's not Papelbon or Adams, but who would expect him to be?

awh - Lyons has allowed 40% of inherited runners to score. R charged to him isn't the whole picture. But I agree that this team would be marginally better with a different veteran FA than Durbin. How much better? Eh. Not much at all.

Sophist: If you blow 1 run save in the ninth, the WP will go from ~90% down to 0%.

If you give up 3 runs in the 7th inning with a 1 run lead, you're only starting with a WPA of ~70% and your WP won't go to 0, only about 20% since you still have ABs left.

You need to divide by the leverage index to make them comparable.

re: 3 Venezuelans

I also found a game where Omar Daal started along with Abreu and Tomas.

One positive I can think of today is that the Braves are benching BJ Upton again. Just imagine if he was signed with us for 5 years. Ugh.

Will Howard EVER not bat 4th?

lorecore - I understand leverage impacts WPA. What I meant was that I haven't really thought how dividing by LI would normalize that stat so that you could compare different kinds of relievers, and I didn't have the time or inclination to figure it out while multi-tasking.

I think the bottom line is that Durbin does stink, but then so does Aumont, Horst, and (some nights) Hamels and Doc, and the offense. This team is more than 1-2 relievers away from being a coupla-three back.

ah here it is: The Philly Venezuelan Superfecta - July 20, 2005

Tomas Perez 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Endy Chavez CF
Danny Sandoval PH

Re: 40% of inherited runners scoring...

Well, that's better than our team relief pitching average as whole, which after last night is now an MLB-leading 42% (28 of 67).

rock: And yet Jack says we shouldn't be concerned about our bullpen.

Clout: You think this offense would make the playoffs with a better bullpen? You're wrong. Be concerned about the bullpen all you want--the middle relief stinks. But they're the difference between this team winning 77 games and 81.

By the way, it's not our bullpen overall. Papelbon, Adams, and Bastardo have all been fine. The bullpen as a whole has a 4.50 ERA (which significantly understates the problem, because it doesn't count inherited runners). Papelbon has a 1.31 ERA, Adams has a 3.24 ERA, and Bastardo has a 2.00 ERA.

That means the other guys in our bullpen have a massively high ERA, and even that doesn't do it justice when you consider the inherited runners they've let score (again, that's almost all the bottom of the pen--the top 3 guys have allowed only 4 inherited runners to score, though out of 9 opportunities).

Basically, an argument about the bullpen comes down to claiming that, as bad as they've been, the worst four pitchers on the staff are responsible for this season being a failure. And that's crazy. Yes, a better team would have a better middle relief corps. But a better team would also use them far less, and win many more games on their own.

Thanks to Mick O. for helping me with a code to post this.

I look forward to seeing Chad Durbin pitch 2 scoreless innings, with 6 strikeouts, after the Braves re-claim him & use him to face the Phillies in our next series.

Nice work, GBF.

I don't suppose you've been commissioned to put one together that includes Mini Mart and an atomic bomb?

That's not even funny to think about, BAP.

Don't get me started, WP. I have fun doing these kinds of things, and now that I know how to upload them here.....But thank you.

My comments seem to keep being deleted. Probably for cussing.

We're 2nd worst in the NL in runs per game, 6th worst in BA, 5th worst in OBP, 6th worst in SLG...middle of the road in defensive efficiency.

Without Halladay, Hamels and Lee taking us to Adams/Papelbon 3 nights out of 5 - we aren't going anywhere.

Even then, without Utley and Ruiz, an with Howard spending his ABs wondering what x-box game he's going to play when he gets home...

It's just a really poorly constructed team.

Bastardo's xFIP- 4.73. His FIP: 4.51. SIERA: 4.22. -0.2 fWAR on the year.

He's not been 'fine.' He's got a WHIP near 1.4, his K-Rate is way down, his walk rate is up. His 90% strand rate and .261 BABIP have saved his ass and is the reason his ERA is 2.

Bastardo is a big part of the problem, actually. Adams hasn't been lights out either (though his xFIP is 3.16 and his SIERA is 3.01), but his HR/FB and BABIP have contributed to his numbers. Bastardo has actually gotten quite lucky for how poorly he's pitched. 2011 is a distant memory. Honestly, I'd want DeFratus above him on the depth chart at this point.

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EST. 2005

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