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Monday, May 13, 2013

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Sounds like the Reds could use a SS.

Over at Crashburn Alley:

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/jonathan-papelbon-living-his-side-huge-contract

From Iatrogenes:

Yes, I agree …but au contraire! If all these suggestions/proposals happen this year, completely remaking the team, who is picking someone else’s prospects in return? RAJ and his scouting crew. What have they done to inspire such confidence that the prospects they might receive will be the beginning of a positive Phillies turnaround? History is a great teacher.

Trading Cliff Lee to Seattle and the prospects received:
Philippe Aumont. Maybe the best of all the prospects received, but I don’t feel my heart fluttering. We’ll see. Build the future team around him?
Tyson Gillies, CF. Hit .148 in 18 games in AAA and then demoted to Reading.
JC Ramirez, P. In AAA bullpen; has an ERA of 6.75

Trading Shane Victorino to LA Dodgers and prospects received:
Josh Lindblom, P. Gone. In AAA in Rangers system.
Ethan Martin, P. At AAA Lehigh Valley. 3-2 with 5.77 ERA.

Hunter Pence to SF and the prospects received:
Tommy Joseph, C. At AAA Lehigh Valley with .209 BA with .264 OBP, .622 OPS and 9 passed balls in 21 games.
Seth Rosin, P. At AA Reading with a 1-3 record.
Nate Schierholtz, OF. Gone for nothing. Hitting .291, 4 homers, 17 RBI with an OPS of .858 for the Cubs.

What else have these talent evaluators brought to the Phillies in the last few years?
Ty Wigginton. Signed to 1-year contract. Phillies split his $4 million salary with Colorado. Cost $2 million …for him?
Juan Pierre (best one-year signing at minor league contract). Pierre is your best signing? Yikes!
Chad Durbin (again). Signed to $1.1 million 1-year contract.
Chad Qualls. Signed to $1.15 million one-year contract.
Ross Gload. Signed to a 2-year $2.2 million contract.
Danys Baez. Signed to 2-year $5.25 million contract.
Wilson Valdes. 1-0 as a pitcher, and led to…
Jeremy Horst in the bullpen.
Jose Contreras. At age 38, signed to $5.5 million 2-year contract.
Roy Oswalt. Phillies paid $12 million (Houston picked up $11 million more) for 1½ years. Oswalt also got additional $2 million to not play when Phillies did not pick up 2012 option.
Michael Martinez. Rule 5 pick. Great acquisition.
David Herndon. Rule 5 pick. Gone. Released on waivers.
Brian Sanches. Released.
Jim Thome (second time). ‘Nuff said.
Delmon Young. I’m waiting for a ball to bounce off his head. Maybe he can hit. Maybe. So far, .242 BA and .749 OPS.
Ben Revere. Will he shine like Paul Revere?
Mike Fontenot. Hector Luna. Pete Orr.
Kevin Frandsen. Bench player.

So, best acquisitions to date: Juan Pierre (now with Marlins) and Kevin Frandsen. Maybe Jeremy Horst. The trading of Lee, Pence and Victorino were salary dumps with little to show for it in prospects …so far.

Anyone optimistic that the Gang That Couldn’t Trade Straight is ready for a dramatic talent-selection turnaround? I’m not arguing against trading some of this team’s starters if this team performs like April through the All-Star break, but why does this team still need to be dumping salaries? They’re ready to hit the lottery when they get their new TV deal signed. Why not trade for established stars at mucho bucks, like Jason Upton (oops, gone to the Braves) …or Chase Headley and Giancarlo Stanton? Not likely. Don’t have enough minor prospects to make these acquisitions.

I disagree about the later part but man that is a depressing summary of the secondary moves/trades that Amaro has made as GM.

Baker went to the Charlie Manuel School of Line-up Construction.

Of course.

I'm pretty sure Jason Upton is still on the market.

Remember when JW used to yell at the guy who always posted his link right after JW wrote a new header?

Corey needs to lay down the law!

Beerleaguer and CSN are both affiliated with Comcast (as evidenced by the author being the same in both articles). The clicks are just as good on either site so I doubt JW cares about the link being there.

It's almost as if someone w/ no background in or history of evaluating baseball talent -- say, former PR Dept. intern Ed Wade -- chose a similarly unqualified candidate to be his assistant, practically sight unseen. It's a good thing r00b had skilled friends in the profession, like Omar Minaya, to guide him through the learning process.

well, technically MG tried to post a link to crashburn alley, but in true MG-fashoin he typed the wrong link and didn't bother reviewing before posting

"Seth Rosin: Has a 1-3 record"

thanks for sharing that analysis.

Indians have a doubleheader today. Hope the yanks wear out their bullpen.

Are we looking at Jair Jurrjens?

Conway Twitty- Masterson pitched a 1 hit CGSO in the front half so no dice there.

Indians have a doubleheader today. Hope the yanks wear out their bullpen.

Posted by: Conway Twitty | Monday, May 13, 2013 at 02:43 PM


So much for that idea. Masterson pitched a CGSO in game one.

Freddy Garcia is making starts for the Orioles....I don't see how they'd let Jurrijens opt out if he could be useful.

TTI: haha. I just checked that out, but you beat me back here.

Thanks, lore. Wasn't sure of his situation (obviously).

Ich bin ein Phillie!

MG: That is a... Sizable post.

Cyclic: Jurrjens and the Phillies seeming interest seems like a classic case of where there is smoke there is fire.

Depressing list and more and more Amaro is looking 'Minaya-like' in his ability to find enough complementary talent to surround his aging core so they can get to the playoffs.

Jurrjens seems a plausible signing to me. Won't be surprised in the least if it happens.

I would take Dan Duquette running team anyday of the week over Amaro. Much better track of developing and putting people in place to pick & develop talent at two organizations (Expos and Red Sox) and being a guy who will go through every bin at the Value Village to try to find pieces that he thinks can help the team.

Also succeeding too in finding battered and broken pieces that provide some real value.

Amaro had demonstrated very little ability to do that so far except with Pierre with some glaring fails (Grilli).

How does an AL game finish in under 2.5 hrs.? First of a DH and 44 deg. game time temp. 2nd game already underway.

Jurrjens would fit the profile for an Amaro signing.

A good name with "pedigree" who looks good by "traditional" numbers (55-37, 3.62 ERA for career), but whose underlying "advanced" stats show a pretty crappy player (career K/BB ratio under 2, low GB rate, declining production and injuries since his rookie year).

If he signs him to a 2-year deal, it could be the prototypical Amaro scrap-heap signing.

Everyone knows Germany is a hotbed of baseball talent.

"awh - This isn't about "being fair to Mayberry" or something. It's great that he'd be a 4-5th OF on 25 clubs. But he's on this one. BAP is right. The question of whether or not he should be on this roster is about what OF the Phils have -- not whether Mayberry would be on any other roster."


Sophist, thank you. You actually have helped make my point.

Yes, Mayberry is on THIS club - a club whose OF collectively is hitting .227 .288 .340 (per b-r.com) - and that INCLUDES the starters.

That's the WORST OPS in MLB!!!

So yeah, compared to the other OF on the Phillies he's not so bad. AAMOF, he's a fine BACKUP OF, and as you noted would be on most MLB teams.

The problem is that the OF on the Phillies STINKS to high heaven!!!!!!!

If they had any starting OF who are any good (or were at least playing as though they are), he'd never be exposed the way he has been.

Also, the manager doesn't use him properly, but that's another story.

Here are all the MLB OF:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=defp%7Cas%20Outfield%7CML%7C2013%7Cbat%7CAB%7C


Dead last in almost every category, yet some here seek to place the blame on Albert Ross. :)

MG: That list isn't entirely fair. We used Thome for half a season last year until the DH was done for us, then we flipped him to the Os for what is by all accounts a quite promising pitching prospect.

Oswalt was far from a bad choice for most of the time we had him - and what we traded for him turned out to be pretty mediocre in the MLB.

I think the real issue we should be pondering, though, is how well Amaro turns vets into prospects (we know he can do it the other way around pretty darn well).

Our primary examples of this are Pence/Victorino (I personally don't think Lee falls into this category because of the Halladay situation, but not everyone agrees there), which don't look spectacular at the moment, but that's a pretty limited sample size.

Who the F cares about what Crashburn Alley says? They are awful. I can't even follow what MG's first post was supposed to be about.

Amaro has the market cornered on former East German hotbeds of baseball.

Personally I wouldn't mind living in Berlin even though cost of living is a bit on the pricey side.

Amaro has done a shitty job so far in trades in getting back talent (see Ed Wade) and signing complementary players via FA for the bullpen & bench.

Where are people seeing this Jurrjens rumor?

Also, who's Jason Upton?

awh: You realize that Mayberry is roughly 1/4th of the reason why we have the worst OF in the league right? How exactly is that somehow supposed to be in favor of him as a player?

Everyone know the Germans make good baseball players.

awh - It doesn't sound so much like I'm making the same point you did. Now it sounds like you're making BAP's point.

Is Amaro scouting the Pesäpallo leagues?

The Germans are good at swinging wooden clubs around. Although they're better at it when they're wearing brown shirts, not maroon.

(Said as someone with one of the most stereotypically German last names in the world)

Max Kepler (a German) is actually a legit prospect in the Twins system.

Scheisskopf?

In the old days, if the Phillies signed an obscure foreign prospect on an off day, it was guaranteed to get its own post on Beerleaguer!

KAS - Weitzel would also have the obvious Pennsylvania Dutch tie-in too with a German prospect.

Yeah, but in the old days, beerleaguer wouldn't post an paraphrased Associated Press post game thread within 5 minutes of a game's conclusion.

Gotta take the good with the bad i guess.

MG: That was my first thought... considering I grew in Pennsylvania Dutch territory!

Worse comes to worst, we can stash him with (my) Lancaster Barnstormers?

Also, Mets sign Ankiel on an MLB deal.

If RAJ were trying to put together a luge or winter biathlon team for the 2018 Winter Olympics, I'd be utterly stoked to sign one of Germany's best young prospects.

Can we really expect any kind of meaningful return by trading Utely or Ruiz? this isn't the NBA where expiring contracts are considered a premium. Especially when GMs face the gauntlet at every trade deadline of the media saturating the public with stories of rent-a-player deals that blew up in the buying team's face.

It may be irrational, but i'd rather keep Utley and Chooch for sentimental reasons than trade them to trade them.

I'm not sure it's as much Utley's expiring contract as his .860 OPS at a premium position and .900 career playoff OPS that's highly valued. Also, yeah, getting that for $15M pro-rated is pretty great value.

I hope the Phils extend him in any case.

I imagine the thoughts behind trading Chooch and Utley are that one provides adequate-to-good offense at a defense-first position, and excellent defense/game-calling (you don't see Chooch looking into the dugout twice/pitch the way Yadier does), while the other provides middling D and spectacular O at another defense-first position - and brings a mentality that almost can't help but inspire some guys who've never been on the same team with him before.

Both could net you some pretty good returns if you're willing to wait out the market... Which, thankfully, Amaro has no reason not to do in this case, since we'd probably be very happy keeping both guys on the team through at least 2014 - maybe 2015 in Utley's case.

In re: Kamara

Good to know the Phils will, at last, have an unproven toolsy outfielder in the system.

At last.

Need will dictate the trade return. A quick browse around the majors will show that a healthy number of teams are much worse off at 2B/C than they need to be to make/succeed in the playoffs, which will play into the Phils hands quite well.

If the Phillies plan on keeping Ruiz/Utley in the future, then they should obviously only trade them for significant value, but if they are not in their future plans the sentimental reasons are already gone.

joe - I evere could be a pitcher in the Finnish sport. Almost.

let me try that again.

I think Revere could be a pitcher in Pesapallo.

Maybe Amaro sees some real unrealized opportunity in Eastern Europe. Scouting heavily in Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and some of the former Yugoslavia countries. Really keen on Albania.

RE: Scouting the German Player Market

We've already tried the SchwimerHorst, & it did not sit well. Maybe focus on Latin America & the Caribbean, instead.

lore - There are teams in need of a shortstop as well.

Selling again? C'mon we haven't even been swept yet this week.

Concerning Julsan: I like the "+++" strength.

And hey, he's a CF/RF who bats right-handed with power.

For a .390 BA in spring ball down in Miami, I also noticed.

MG: The Phillies signed a Czech a few years ago, Marek Minarik. I believe he'll play at Williamsport this year.

"Here are all the MLB OF:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=defp%7Cas%20Outfield%7CML%7C2013%7Cbat%7CAB%7C


Dead last in almost every category"


* * *

awh - That's depressing. And explains a lot.


I also read this:

"The Phillies were without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley a year ago. Those two are playing full-time this year, and the offense's numbers are still worse in nearly every major category. Their team batting average is down almost 20 points, they've scored 21 fewer runs and have grounded into double plays seven more times."

http://blogs.mcall.com/phillies/2013/05/i-wish-the-stats-painted-a-better-picture-for-you-and-honestly-theyre-more-lopsided-than-i-thought.html

Sophist, IMO you're looking at it the wrong way.

I view Mayberry as a 4th-5th OF/bench player.

The fact that he's been placed in a role to which he is unsuited is not how he ought to be judged. He'd be just fine as a backup on a team with better OF, and no one would say a thing, because the expectations would suit his role.

The problem is that because he's started so many games, I think you tend to judge him compared to starting OF. If he were just a backup (the role to which he's suited) and received the playing time of someone like Ben Francisco (18 G, 41 PA) or Derrick Robinson (21 G, 29 PA) and used as a PH, defensive sub or pinch runner, then I don't think anyone would have an issue with him.

Michael Young does everything better than Wilson Valdez.

Including GiDPs.

Michael Young does everything better than Wilson Valdez. Including GiDPs.

It's truly unfortunate that Horst isn't even a better pitcher than Wilson Valdez.

Michael Young might be.

Heck, Delmon Young might be, if he can be as accurate at 60'6" as he is at the 200' from the RF wall to 2nd base.

Julsan Kamara does not look to be a typical ethnic German. Probably comes from a family that immigrated there:

http://www.power-showcase.com/7th-annual-event-december-2012/7th-annual-line-up/germany-julsan-kamara

Worse comes to worst, we can stash him with (my) Lancaster Barnstormers?

Also, Mets sign Ankiel on an MLB deal.

Posted by: Phillibuster | Monday, May 13, 2013 at 03:58 PM

Phillibuster, are you from the Lancaster area?

Mike: Not originally, but lived there for 10 years while attending (and then working at) my college.

Speaking of prospects, 20-year old catcher Chace Numata is off to a blistering start at Lakewood.

Has anyone seen this 14th Round draft pick play, and is he a legit prospect?

Hails from Hawaii.

Millersville?

Mike G, 'buster is a Dip', as am I.

I had a 50-50 shot.....picked the wrong one.

Mike: Technically I could have been PCAD too.


Mike: Technically I could have been PCAD too.

Posted by: Phillibuster | Monday, May 13, 2013 at 05:47 PM

Yeah, I never thought of them. I said Millersville, because my sister in law works there. I play poker with a guy who was recently inducted into F&M's Hall of Fame

"Speaking of prospects, 20-year old catcher Chace Numata is off to a blistering start at Lakewood."

I hope he's better at baseball than his parents are at spelling.

Mike: Oh nice! Probably don't know him, since I'm class of '06... Unless he refers to himself as "A Diplomatic Badger?"

Buster and Mike, could also have been Lancaster Bible College.

Lancaster: We're not Reading or Harrisburg!

I'm not debating whether Utley and Ruiz are players that any club would want on their roster, nor whether they are significant upgrades for a contender.

I feel clubs are much more wary these days of trading top prospects for players that could bolt after the season. For instance would Atlanta send Texas the same haul for Teixeira if he could've walked that winter?

AWH: Indeed. Or LTS, for that matter.

MG: Too true. We're not as dirty as Reading, nor as... Harrisburg-y. Because even the sound of that forces you to make a face.

Buster, he played basketball there in the early 90's. His name is Charlie Detz. He was a local high school basketball star before attending F&M.

awh, there's another one I didn't think of.

Mike: Ahh, don't know him, but I think I've heard the name.

For a while I worked under the former ('90s era, I believe) head of athletics for F&M, (whose name I can't quite remember) when I worked at a local church...

"I feel clubs are much more wary these days of trading top prospects for players that could bolt after the season."

Recent events don't bear that out. Two years ago, the Giants gave up Zach Wheeler, a top 50-ish prospect, for a half season of Carlos Beltran. Last year, the Angels gave up another top 50-ish prospect, Jean Segura, for a half year of Zack Greinke.

bap - I would want at least two top 50ish prospects for Utley or Rollins.

did we mention thaddeus stevens college?

Ok, I guess my odds were a little worse than 50-50....haha

Andy: I figure we can go Rollins for Profar and Olt, then we can shop Utley to the Twins for Buxton and Arcia.

Wait... The Yankees/Indians double-header was over by 6:30? What the heck?

Although at least they got mashed by the Yanks. Maybe come into town a bit dejected.

notice how much kamara looks like rube? and the last names are almost the same sans the k.

bullit, WOW, what an observation.

Is that the info minimart had? Is that why they kept minimart at the MLB level? :)

sorry if that sounded racist.

i meant that it must have been an easy pick that appealed to rubes narcissism.

i like the pick. kamara, at 6'4" 192 lbs. looks like he could be good.

He definitely wouldn't pass Dr. Mengela's Aryan test.

bullit, I didn't take it that way. I took it as a shot at RAJ based on his personal looks. That's all.

I made the reference to minimart having pic's. :)

ah, sorry awh. i guess i had a twinge of guilt.

Even after the Tribe was limited to 10 hits-1 run in the doubleheader today, they come here with the following OPS's:
.828
.846
.859
.916
.966
1.027
1.062

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