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« Offense finally backs Lee in Phillies' win | Main | Kendrick's hot hand still on fire »

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

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This just in - Roy Halladay's shoulder needs to be sawed off to save it from some form of gungus.

With a pitcher like Kyle Kendrick on the mound, how can you not be confident about tonight's game?

Lincecum is headed to his walk year and, if you can't see him landing with the Phillies for 4 years, $82.5M, then you simply haven't been paying attention.

Jack: The point is that the drop-off in production from 2013 Rollins to 2014 Rollins is likely to be dramatically less than the drop-off from 2013 Rollins to 2014 Galvis.

I don't think anybody is disagreeing that if we can get good pieces for Rollins, we should move him (if we can). What we're saying is that there's no point in moving him just to play Galvis more in the hopes that he's the SS of the future.

He isn't.

Phils at +130 now? I'll take a piece of that.

KK has to give them a 7 IP, >2 ER start tonight for the Phils to have a solid chance and he's done that 3 of his 4 last times.

Giants don't have any LH power either except Sandoval. Good lineup for KK to face & he has good historical splits vs the guys he will face. I hope Pagan is back in the lineup for the Giants too.

not that i want to argue about it for the rest of the thread, but i'll just simply say that I disagree with MG's "eyes" about Rollins.

According to his eyes, Rollins has been gradually slipping on defense for about 4 straight years now. By that logic, Rollins should be flat out awful by now since he's been declining year after year - but guess what - he's not.

In usual MG fashion, he made that statement a long time ago, and keeps running it out there until it sticks. No dice. A 34 yr old Rollins is an above average fielder at the most premium defensive position on the field.

Now that I've finally come around on Kendrick & am genuinely confident about tonight's game I can only assume that reality will be returning to punch me square in the nuts.

It's a shame what happened to Tim Lincecum. I might have never cheered for him, but the level of dominance he displayed for a number of years is always fun to watch.

Philibuster: Ok, well I disagree on that last part. I think there's at least a chance that Galvis is the SS of the future.

Is he going to be as good as Rollins was from 2004-2008? No, but that was the best SS in franchise history, so that's a high bar. Do I think Galvis can continue to improve some with the bat, to the point where he could provide average offense (for a SS--90 OPS+ or so), and GG-quality defense?

Yes, actually, I do. I'm not sure it's going to happen. But I'm willing to find out.

Nice win last night. Lee's comments about expecting the team to improve now. Slight inspired hope in the fan base. Potential to capture rare series win in SF. Our new found 2013 "ace" on the mound. SF throwing an under-performing and erratic starter. Even MG feeling good about the Phils' odds tonight.

There's no other way to view it - this game feels like a certain loss. Probably a 2 hit shutout, to boot.

The point is that the drop-off in production from 2013 Rollins to 2014 Rollins is likely to be dramatically less than the drop-off from 2013 Rollins to 2014 Galvis.

I believe this largely depends on whether one believes Rollins will go on a tear later on & finish the season at .260-.270, or if one believes Rollins is going to remain a .240-.250 kinda guy. If the latter, it's a lot less of a drop.

I expect Kendrick to get shelled tonight.

Jack: 90 OPS+ for Galvis is a high bar for him. We're not even talking league average even with that, but I just don't see him getting there.

Nothing in the minors or his stints up here have led me to believe he's even that mediocre of a hitter. I think he'll rest firmly in the mid-60s to mid-70s for the majority of his career - barring small sample sizes.

He strikes me as Wilson Valdez redux, only he can field better, is less selective, and hits for less power.

JRoll, Utley, Dom, Chooch and Lincecum... all on my fantasy team. I feel like I can personally determine the outcome of this game by who I bench. (Whoever I bench will do well, obviously).

GTown: It doesn't have to be much of a tear to bring his BA up .020 points in early May.

The only reason he's so low now is because he's 2-for-19 in the last 6 games. He ended April with a .260 BA, and he generally does better when the weather warms.

Mike: I gather you're in last place in your fantasy league?

Come on BAP. Only 9th of 12.

Williard Preacher - It's quite possible the offense craps the bed tonight and they only scratch out 1-2 runs and lose.

MG: With KK on the hill, it's possible 2 runs gets it done.

I would prefer a wider margin, however.

Giant fan here - always check out the opponents blogs. Can't believe things have fallen so bad in Philly that you're mostly on this blog discussing fire selling your team. Tell your GM, we'll def take Cliff Lee off your hands (he'd look great in a Giants uniform and he obviously likes pitching here in AT&T) and since Chase Utley already lives in San Fran.....

Go Giants: If it comes to that, it could work out.

Got a farm system you're itching to denude in the interim?

Why do I feel like Lincecum has dominated the Phillies over the course of his career? Also it seems like the Phils always see him when facing the Giants. Never miss his start regardless of the time of year. Probably just perception because he's been around for a while.

William Hill Bookmaking - UK's largest sports betting company - reaches long term agreement with Monmouth Park in NJ as sole sport betting partner.

Hard Rock reaches deal with Meadowlands Track for same rights.

Sounds like word is getting out that NJ may be able to move forward.

Follow me. I'll carry this team. Hop on this back

"the Phillies really need to work him tonight. They didn't last season. Lincecum walked three or more batters 15 times in 33 starts last year, but walked only three Phillies in 13 innings."

Look a little closer. They saw Lincecum twice. In the first game, they did exactly what you're suggesting that they do. It didn't result in walks, but they forced him to throw pitches to hit, and they got to him for 5 runs, 4 in the first inning. In his second start against them, he was much sharper.

San Fran's farm system is pretty m'eh in my book.

I can also imagine they aren't super-interested in drastically increasing payroll, so the "salary dump" aspect of a potential firesale wouldn't make sense there either.

Cliff Lee for Hunter Pence. Continues our tram tradition of getting too little for Lee and paying too much for Pence.

lorecore - It's way overdue. Legalize it, regulate it, tax it. Better than that revenue going overseas and if it puts the more organized crime types out of business the better.

San Fran couldn't put together a package for Lee in my opinion. Weak system with only strength being low level pitchers that would be too much risk for an ace like Lee.

SF couldn't take on Lee's salary either.

jbird gave me a nice laugh there.

Maybe we could take that pesky Buster Posey contract off their hand so they can make room for Lee's salary.

"... if the bats stay alive ..."

Uh, yeah. Up the meds, dude...

just noticed Lee only faced 2 players over the minimum last night. Fult Tilt indeed.

The problem w/ trading Lee to SF -- & admittedly, it's a personal issue -- is that I hate practically every player on that team. The Giants are loathsome.

Lore: An infield D that can turn DPs is nice to have.

Even if one of them ends with Ryan Howard chasing down a runner and applying the tag.

Why do we have to trade Cliff Lee? He's a horse and he's our horse!

Did you know...

last year, 36 of Ben Revere's 40 steals came after June 2?

If he starts getting on base, he'll be off to the races. Damn.

Methinks Doc's injury is a torn labrum. Just a guess.

Cyclic: That follows, as Revere only had 70 PA combined in March/April/May '12. He's already had 108 PA this season.

So since we've got our Fan Since '09, maybe the Giants blog has a Fan Since '11?

"Why do we have to trade Cliff Lee? He's a horse and he's our horse!"

Well, he's the front end of the horse, at least. R00b is the rear end...

D-Pats: Is that your long-distance guess, or did your source relay organizational chatter?

"He's opposed by Ace Kendrick..."


Well, Corey called him "Ace".

This now feels like a loss.

I'm with Mike, re fantasy. I'm terrified to bench Angel Pagan in Fantasy even though I know he's DTD. I know with absolute certainty that if I do take him out of the lineup, he will come off the bench with a key steal in the 8th and then hit a grand slam in the 11th. I'm takin' one for the Phillies by keeping him active.

Unrelated note: My team's name is The Incavigla Famigla.

lorecore- was going to say something similar about J-Roll's defense. I'm surprised he can even field the position at all at this point based on we've heard. We've been reading how it's been slipping for practically since this site has existed. Seems to be a theme here to say the same thing every year until you're right, then declare you've been right all along (RK).

Every time Kendrick is just on the verge of losing his rotation spot for good, he throws a gem.

Similarly, every time he seems to have established himself as good, he throws out a dud.

Accordingly, I predict he gets shelled tonight.

Jack, it's guaranteed KK gets shelled, if nothing else just based on Seidman caling him an "Ace".

It's like the writers here have never heard of, nor fear, the baseball gods.

I've been reading this blog on my iPad for years.

Well, maybe I'm wrong about KK.

Here's an irrelevant pattern, runs surrendered by KK in his starts this season:

1st - 5 runs

2nd - 2 runs

3rd - 0 runs

4th - 2 runs

5th - 0 runs

6th - 2 runs

This will be his 7th start, and if the recent, irrelevant pattern above holds, then maybe he's due for another shutout. Maybe? :)

awh-- That or 5 runs.

I've not been a fan of JRoll's defense this year. He's botched a fair amount of routine plays, and looks like he's had trouble finishing plays that require him to range either far to his right or left.

For the record, I'm expecting he allows 4-5. But that it doesn't matter 'cause the offense is again, well, offensive to the tune of 1-2 runs despite 4-5 walks by Lincecum.

Jack: "let's roughly pencil him in for something like .260/.305/.380. Is that overly optimistic?"

No. It's ridiculously, absurdly overly optimistic.

One thing to be optimistic about is Howard does have 4 dingers in 38 PA vs. Lincecum.

If that means anything, because he also has 17 Ks.

Howard has 1 hit in 10 PA against Lincecum in the last 2 seasons - a HR.

clout, with a repost.

Agent Provocateur!

I expect Pence to have more annoying success tonight.

The thing that gets me about KK's season? He had only given up 2 runs when he was pulled in his first start. Had Horst not allowed all 3 inherited runners to score, KK would not have a single dud on the season. Dude's been money. That being said, I also expect a vintage KKrapfest tonight.

Pence actually has a few ABs against KK while he was in Houston.

9 ABs, .222 BA, no HRs or RBI.

Salisbury, a few minutes ago: "Talked to Ruben Amaro 30 min ago. He hopes to have Halladay results tonite but might not get them till tomorrow"

Wooo! No delmon young!

Rollins
Utley
MYoung
Howard
Chooch
Brown
Nix
Revere
Kendrick

Let the celebration begin.

"The reality is the team is not where we wanted to be at this point and we feel like outfield is one of our weakest positions, and we wanted to give some guys who are having some success at Triple-A a chance to continue that up here," Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters.

The toughest thing as an executive is to explain failure and do so with a straight-forward, upbeat manner with a smiling grin.

Privately Luhnow know his boss is going to pocket dollars hand over fist this year & next year caring very little about the actual win/loss record of the club.

Luhnow must have gotten at least a 5-year guarantee otherwise he was nuts to take that job.

So do we now assume Delmon isn't the full-time RF? Or is there a DL trip trade afoot?

It is interesting that the single most-bashed player by the Moronocracy over the past 5 years is now the de facto ace.

"It is interesting that the single most-bashed player by the Moronocracy over the past 5 years is now the de facto ace."

Michael Martinez is a pitcher now????

KK's ERA in 2008 was 5.49. So, it's interesting that if a player improves over the course of his career, some posters will call out others for bashing him when he actually, did indeed suck, five years ago.

Interesting.

More and more I get the sense that Amaro is trying to desperately make a trade to replace Halladay since he thinks very little of Cloyd (only called him up last year when he really had no alternative) and doesn't think Morgan is ready. I also bet Amaro still thinks this team can be a viable playoff contender too.

MG: "since he thinks very little of Cloyd (only called him up last year when he really had no alternative) and doesn't think Morgan is ready"

If this is true, it's probably one of the few times I've been completely in agreement with Amaro.

Preacher wins the thread.

MG: If so, he's wrong (about this season), & something tells me we're liable to rue any deal he makes in this regard.

Zolecki tweet from last night indicates that an external solution is being considered, so I agree that RAJ isn't sold on Cloyd (nor should he be).

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki

Amaro said Biddle not a candidate for rotation. Looking externally, but Morgan and Cloyd best candidates to fill spot.

Salisbury, a few minutes ago: "Talked to Ruben Amaro 30 min ago. He hopes to have Halladay results tonite but might not get them till tomorrow"

Fixed:

"Talked to Ruben Amaro 30 min ago. He hopes to have Halladay results tonite but might not get a chance to lie about them until tomorrow."

That's actually the single most logically sound lineup that Cholly has drawn up this year -- if not in his entire Phillies career. Unfortunately, the lineup still sucks. But at least it sucks slightly less than I've become accustomed to.

BAP, just one more glaring indication that we're in for a sound beating tonight. I could something like 18-1.

i like how MG went with the contrarian bet last night. and then didn't boast about his win. which way is it tonight, MG?

HA you know it G-Town...

I personally would love to see Morgan get his shot.

I sense Sandberg influence in recent lineups. Either from him directly, or from fear of replacement.

Where's KAS?

Wondering whether or not he'll be accepting new members tonight.

ummm...
So to be successful tonight the Phils have to be patient and work the count?

Sounds like a loss.

Of the external solutions currently on other team's AAA rosters, Jurrjens would be the best bet. Chris Young might be ok until his inevitable injury -- but I can't imagine the Nats handing him over to a division rival unless they receive a return that is of far greater value than Chris Young. Chien Ming-Wang? Why bother?

"Zolecki tweet from last night indicates that an external solution is being considered,"

Hmmm...

Rick Ankiel was just DFA'd.

I guess if I admit posting the Ankiel thing, I'll out myself as Ruben "Production" (is my middle name Amaro.


Well. Y'all knew that anyway.

Jurrjens would also, methinks, qualify for the "inevitable injury" moniker.

This "need" for a SP thing further pisses me off, as I felt the Phils should have made a play for Lohse this past Winter. He ended up signing a 3 year deal, & most of his money for '13 is deferred. The lack of due diligence RE: Halladay's health is infuriating, esp. considering the odds favor at least one man in a five man rotation going down at some point even if all five enter the season in good shape.

I don't like the "external solution" part unless its someone who you have slotted for the rest of the year. Even with Lannan coming back in the next few weeks, it's not like a dependable starter will ever be out of work here. I really hope that RAJ isn't waiting on Halladay's official diagnosis to place a few calls. Then again, he'll almost certainly underwhelm us if/when he does...

Though, I think even an underwhelming trade acquisition (someone likely fungible considering the team's current plan to position itself for a rebuild) still beats a scenario where Rube convinces us that Doc is just out for a short period of time and we need to go through another Lidge-esque carnival with the "is he or isn't he hurt" b.s. for the rest of the season.

GTown: Ehhh. The deferred money doesn't defer the AAV hit.

Also, Lohse cost a 1st-round draft pick. We sort of need those.

Phillibuster: Oh, in retrospect it's not a big deal. That was back when I had faint delusions of this team having an outside chance at the Postseason. Now I'm concerned about what r00b thinks is worth the parting in pursuit of this "external solution". The last thing he needs to be doing is further depleting the lower ranks.

GTown, I hear he's got his best scouts checking in on Joe Blanton. And since Darin Ruf isn't helping us out right now...

Delmon not in the lineup today. Huh.

Since I had to 'admit' that Delmon was the starting RF if he was in the lineup today, maybe Jack will finally admit he's not the starting RF? I'm betting on no.

That lineup is also the best configuration you can hope for out of Manuel.

Iceman, call it my emotional bias getting involved, but I actually would have preferred Mayberry get the nod over Revere. Other than that, though, gotta give the old boy some credit.

I am a bit curious about the note "(off night for Delmon Young)." So, was this a planned night off? Due to performance?

Brutal call in Tampa Bay. Umpires are increasingly terrible.

I have been chopping lots of wood and training old school like Rocky when he goes to Russia except it isn't cold & alot of my training involves rising my tractor. Just waiting for a call Rube.

Cholly with another sensible lineup. Did Amaro secretly kidnap Cholly this weekend and replace him with his unknown identical twin Billy?

And Happ just got drilled by a comeback liner in the head. That's no good.

JA Happ just got crushed by a line drive back through the middle. Looked like he was bleeding from the ear and he is laying on the ground in front of the mound not moving.

Horrific sound. Ball hit him and then careened into foul territory up the first base line going towards the outfield cut out. Eerie hush over the crowd watching this and both teams have guys just sitting their with their heads in their hands.

Bringing out the cart to take him off the field. Scary scary moment.

Holy cow, GTown and TTI. My heart is racing just reading that and tears are almost coming to my eyes.

Bullit - I took the Phils at +130 for $10 which is the minimum wager.

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