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Tuesday, May 14, 2013


From the prior thread.
Here's a bit about Young's contract.

It looks like he couldn't have reached many of his incentives yet, weight or otherwise.

Still don't understand why it took this long to promote De Fratus and why Horst is still on this roster.

You can't treat your relievers like yo-yos but Horst has been bad since the start of spring training from a command/stuff perspective. Yeah he has had two outings where he didn't BB someone or get hit.

As poorly as he started the season and as bad as the middle relief was, Horst should have been sent down to Lehigh to work regularly at the end of April & if he pitching better come back up in another 4-6 weeks after he gets straightened out.

Like with Delmon Young. Looks like they are going to play him everday in RF regardless of whether he hits apparently at least for the next few weeks. Don't understand that especially when he brings nothing else to the table. I would rather see Brown in RF everyday, Revere in CF (although hitting #9), and then go from there in LF.

Felt like a win!

If Delmon Young doesn't like getting benched and grumbles, DFA him.

I would bet that Amaro is the kind of guy who holds on to losers too long and chasers his losses too whether he plays stocks or gambles.

Tomorrow is one of those games this team needs to win if they want to get to the playoffs.

It would be nice to see them keep this going and get their head above water a bit.

I'd so love to play poker with the Phillies FO staff.

So who has a better career at this point, Pettibone or Worley? Worley's strikeout rate is way down, I never did buy into the fact that his K looking % was sustainable.

Unrelated, but I'm just elated after Cameron wrote 1500 words about how stupid Eric Wedge was for starting Raul Ibanez against CC tonight, only for Raul to go 2-4 with a HR.

Baseball's a fun game.


I'm trying to imagine a universe where I get paid simply to not get fat. Mind blowing.

Stupendous Man!:

Mo Rivera had his 16th save (16 or 16)of the season tonight and it was his 7th with a 1-run lead coming into the 9th. Also his 7th with a clean inning.

ERA is down to 1.52 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP.

Saber-guy will argue that Rivera isn't the #1 reason the Yanks are tied for the best record in MLB because WAR/closer/etc. I would argue they are wrong.

Huge reason why the Yanks are 7-2 in 1-run games and are 19-0 when they lead the game heading in the 7th inning.

Just a freak of nature. I love watching him throw the different variations of the cutter he has learned and still break his share of bats even at age 43.

Ugh, cole hamels? Another loss, that stinks! Jk. Go phils!

Mo since the start of his Age 38 season:

282 G, 284 IP, 181 SV, 1.71 ERA, 275 SO, 41 BB, 0.831 WHIP, 6.71 SO/BB, 258 ERA+

Since he turned 38 years old.

Insane NEPP. The amount of years he has been dominant in a row is ridiculous, for any player ever.

A 206 career ERA+. Lol

Mariano Rivera is indeed a freak of nature. The greatest to ever close out games. Even though he is a Yankee, it has been an honor to have him pitch in my generation.

...the Phillies will go for their season-best fourth straight win.

Wow, that's sad.

Mo Rivera is the best reliever in the history of baseball and one of the best pitchers to ever play.

We will very likely never see anyone at his level ever again.

I really wish he reconsiders his intended retirement.

Tough luck, 2013 Cole Hamels. Day Game. RHP opposing pitcher against whom hitters are batting .311. Coming off a solid all-around win.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster, doesn't it?

Pettibone has thrown ~16% CH. His pitch with the lowest % of strikes but his highest whiff % (still only about 18%).

That should say 8% not 18%

It's pretty funny how MG keeps going on and on about Horst, who's mostly been the victim of bad luck.

And, no, Rivera is not the #1 reason the Yankees are doing so well. It's not because of WAR, it's because he has to have a lead, and the Yankees, unaccountably, with a roster made up almost entirely of retreads like Vernon Wells, are routinely leading going into the 9th. Preserving those leads is important, and Rivera is great, but don't be silly.

Pettibone really has nice poise out there. It was such a welcome relief to see DeFratus in a key spot late in the game.

WAR is a great stat but there is something to be said for a team that knows that once it has a lead, its 99% going to win if they can hand it off to a living legend.

The poise thing scares me if only because we all said the same thing about Happ, Worley, and a million other guys that had temporary success before the league caught on.

Pettibone has a good fastball due to his location/command of it. I've yet to see good secondary pitches from him. Both are more of show me options so far. His changeup is supposed to be good so hopefully he can start to rely on it more and work on his slider as well. Much like KK, he's going to have to learn at the MLB level so hopefully he's up for it. He's got some great guys to help him with his changeup though. Dubee is a changeup specialist and obviously Hamels, Lee, & KK all use it quite a bit and Doc should be knocking about too to help out.

So far, he's given them a chance to win in each of his outings. That's all you can ask for from a guy who should still be learning his craft in the minors.

Great win last night. Good starting pitching (was impressed with Pettibone's poise last night) good relief pitching (especially the maligned bullpen working through the 8th) and solid offense with them tacking on runs even throughout the game. No complaints. 3.5 games back of the division and the wild card.

I'm grabbing some books for summer reading and want to try and stick with sports- or baseball in particular? I want to grab the Jayson Stark book "Worth the Wait" and Jim Salisbury and Todd Zolecki's book "The Rotation." Anything else you've read and can recommend?

If he can put a year together like Worley or Happ, I think we'll all be pretty happy though. I'll take temporary success and some major league experience over failure and quick demotion.

Here's to honing your caft at the Major League level.

I like what I've seen from DeFratus in limited action. I think Manuel is doing it the right way- give him one out to get in optimal situations to get his confidence going a bit. If he keeps being successful, give him an inning. He has the stuff to get MLB hitters out.

This is the exact opposite of what he did with Schwimer, who was thrown to the wolves in that Braves game and soiled himself accordingly.

If he can do what Worley and Happ did it might have allow us to turn him into another player through a deal of some kind.

Was lucky enough to go to the game last night with my son. Pretty nice feeling to see your team put forth such a solid effort in all aspects.

Pettibone was very impressive, although I share NEPP's concern. Two keys were his working out of a jam after plunking two batters, and a terrific double play in the ninth (great glove work by Jimmy, great turn by Galvis - don't know that Frandsen would have made the turn - and great scoop by Howard).

Sure would be nice to see a lock down game by Cole and a bit of run support for him today.

TTI: I read both the books you mentioned. They're both good reads. Also check out the book by Stark on Harry Kalas. Can't remember the name right now. Just a lot of short stories about Harry by the people who loved him. Currently reading "Stan Musial: An American Life" by George Vecsey. Thoroughly enjoying it, so far.

Chooch's hitting streak is rather Michael Young-ish. All singles.

Where tha power, Chooch? Where your pills???

Get an exception or something.

NEPP - fastball right now is his only solid pitch. That and his 80%+ LOB% has him winning games and getting quality starts. The peripherals aren't pretty but he's only a few starts into his major league career, so lets hope for some improvement.

Horst is not the first guy I'd drop from this RP.

This will only be said over and over again, but with this SP he Phils shouldn't be terrible. With some timely hitting, maybe some surprises from guys like Brown, good RP, they could put together a nice little win streak.

Cyclic, as long as Chooch hits I'm OK. He never had super duper power to begin with.

TTI here's a few suggestions from some really good recent reads of mine

On Baseball:

October 1964 - David Halberstam

Ted Williams: The Biography of An American Hero - Leigh Montville

(Sort of baseball, but compelling and cringeworthy nonetheless)
Nailed!: The Improbable Rise and Spectacular Fall of Lenny Dykstra - Christopher Frankie

General Sports:

Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN - James Miller, Tom Shales

Johnny U: The Life and Times of John Unitas -Tom Callahan

awh--- but what about Production™???

Does the word mean nothing to you!?!?


Posted by: Muuurgh | Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 12:54 AM"

Darin Ruf on the season: .296 .370 .496, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 16 BB, 38 K, 154 PA

Last 10 games: .417 .511 .583, 1 HR 7 RBI, 8 BB, 11 K, 36 AB

Positions played:

LF - 26 G
1B - 8 G
DH - 2 G

1 Error, 1 Assist in 46 chances in LF.


I wouldn't say Adderall increased power, if anything it helped increase contact throug improved concentration. I would think Ruiz's power stroke is just taking a little while to come back.

Unless of course, Ruiz is shortening his stroke and focusing more on contact, since he knows he doesn't have the Adderall to help him maintain good contact while focusing on increasing power.

We'll see...

TTI: There were a number of good ones that came out fairly recently (last several years). Wins, Losses and Empty Seats is an interesting combination of baseball and economics/marketing, and of course both the books by R.A. Dickey are promising (haven't had a chance to peruse them myself). There are also a couple of good books on the history of Japanese players (Nikkei Baseball), the JLeagues, and baseball as both metaphor for and cause of American/Japanese relations (Transpacific Field of Dreams).

On the other hand, if you're not limiting yourself to nonfiction, The Art of Fielding has deservedly getting rave reviews since it was published. The End of Baseball isn't as recent, but also pretty darn good.

Ph Ph: If he can put together a season like Worley or Happ, and (apparently clairvoyant) Amaro moves him for a Roy Oswalt (or even a guy who's actually as good as we all thought Revere was/is going to be), I won't be at all disappointed in him.

Obviously I'm not expecting his power from last year (.500+ SLG) but just some doubles maybe. He was always good for a bunch of those.

541: That ESPN book was great. I got it for Christmas and tore through it. Tons of great memories it brought up about ESPN when it was actually worthwhile and not focusing on phony debates and Tim Tebow worship.

Got that and Top of the Rock which was about the rise of NBC's Must See TV. Short read but really fun.

One more pop culture read but the book I Want My MTV for any child of the 80's- like myself- is essential.

One more baseball book. I know people don't like him but Bill Simmons book Now I Can Die in Peace which is a compilation of articles and thoughts on the Red Sox finally winning a World Series in 2004 is really good.

Cyclic, people around here keep using that "P" word.


When the Phils won two in a row, they dropped three. So now that they've won three should we expect them to lose four or six? I can never remember whether it's an addition or multiplication thing.

Delmon Young on the season: .216 .295 .378, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 7 K, 44 PA

Last 10 games: .194 .250 .290, 0 HR 3 RBI, 3 BB, 6 K, 31 AB

Positions played:

RF - 10 G
DH - 2 G

0 Errors, 0 Assists in 12 chances in RF.

NEPP - really liked your obsevation there about P-Bone having a chance to learn the Change-Up from Hamels, Dubee, Lee, Halladay et al. Gives me some real hope for the future. At times, the investment of >$20m/year on the Aces can seem like a failed investment by a frustratingly nearsighted FO. But really, in the long run, the Phils have an awesome opportunity to nurture the beginnings of a multi-generational tradition of pitching excellence. This will depend on how well the knowledge of our Aces is transmitted to the young fellas, and how well they can pass it down to the young ones that folliw in their footsteps, and so on. And, of course, the FO must acquire pitchers with enough smarts and talent to absorb all the lessons from the great ones. It seems to already have benefitted KK. Maybe more young guys can catch on, too. All I'm saying is that there's
an opportunity for building a franchise tradition of pitching excellence. Here's hoping we can capitalize on it.

Ruben Amaro Jr., you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Cyclic: While I'm not at all advocating for him, I would expect DYoung to get at least a couple of assists this year if he gets more playing time. His arm makes Dom's look underpowered.

That, plus the fact that he plays deep (presumably because he knows he's not fast) are probably his primary redeeming aspects as a defensive player.

Oh yeah, I wasn't meaning to demean his arm. Just using the same template as awh's post on Ruf. DYoung's got a cannon even though he runs like a timid geriatric out there.

"The two teams that went to the World Series a year ago were a combined 40-40 after 40 games last season. The San Francisco Giants were 21-19 and the Detroit Tigers were 19-21."

Also, for those who didn't see, CNN ran its occasional Bleacher Report segment this morning. Item 4 (of 4) was the unlikely pair of foul balls landing within a couple yards of each other last night, and the very different outcomes of attempted catches by the fans.

However, what began as a "lighter side of news" special interest piece quickly turned predictable, when both their BR reporter as well as one of the two anchors spent about as much time talking about how typical it was for Phillies fans to boo someone who failed to make a routine grab in the stands.

To his credit, the other anchor pointed out the ignominy the fellow must be feeling at not only getting the jeers in the stadium, but also seeing it repeated on the national morning news.

The Braves after starting 12-1 have gone 10-16 to be sitting at a 22-17 record. One of the best things to happen to the Phillies was that the Braves didn't really separate themselves more than they should've. Their pitching has looked as mortal as people thought and even though some felt they would continue to be torrid they are starting to scuffle offensively. They have also struck out 361 times. If not for the Astros being even worse in that regard I think that would be a bigger story.

Taking shots at Philly fans? How boring and banal. must've been a slow news day.

Cyclic: Honestly, I haven't been overly perturbed by his D. Yes, I'd love it if he was maybe 20-25% faster, and therefore could play in a little more, but overall he hasn't given me much to complain about. He does seem to get pretty good reads quickly, and he catches what he's supposed to catch.

That's maybe something I'd prefer out of my LF than my RF, but if he honestly plays better in right and the other option for RF would be Dom, I don't hate that setup. Certainly not as much as I thought I would when the idea was first proposed.

Every single bleeping stadium jeers when fans drop foul pop ups. Gimme a break.

Sil: Come now, it's never the wrong time for a NYC/Atlanta-based news agency to take shots at Philadelphia.

I'm sure they weren't overly pleased that the whole kidnapping/imprisonment scandal took place in Cleveland instead of our fine hovel.

for the bullpen- my bet is that Valdes gets sent down when a move needs to be made. Durbin could do multiple inning work if necessary (and please don't let it be necessary- and three lefties in the pen is kinda overkill).

Aumont has such a bizarre stat line. I hope that dude finds some modicum of control at some point. We bemoan why the Phillies don't have any flame thrower relievers and we do- he just only finds the strikezone half of the time.

Jeremy Horst:

His K/9 has fallen in half (11.49 vs 5.94)
His swing & miss rate has fallen in half (13.7% vs. 7.5%)
His BB/9 is about the same as last year (4.02 vs 3.78)

His HR/9 is 1.08 is higher than his career mark 0.71 but it is not like he has had terrible luck.

His fastball velocity is down over 2 MPH on his fastball with velocity dips on his slider & changeup too.

It isn't a matter of bad luck. He has drop had a real dropoff in his stuff & it has translated into a huge drop in his K/9 and swing & miss rate. He hasn't had a real improvemnt on his command either.

Anyone who thinks Horst is largely getting unlucky isn't supported by the numbers or basic scounting stuff.

NEPP's post and posts by lorescorn in the game thread show that Pettibone is likely the new KK in terms of excess scrutiny and criticism.

Those two spent years bashing KK, for lack of velocity and Ks. Pettibone's K rate is much better, but he's not a velocity guy, which to some jokers here is the most important thing.

If Pettibone has a bad game expect the usual suspects to come out bashing.

MG: Horst has thrown 16.2 innings this year. Last year he threw 31.1.

I'm not saying he's going to replicate his numbers from 2012 (not that 31 innings are particularly representative either), but doing so over the same timeframe is well within the realm of possibility here.

Outcasts United by Warren St. John is a story about a youth soccer program that was very good.

I don't think Horst has been unlucky. I just don't think he's the worst reliever in the bullpen. When Cloyd gets called back up, Durbin should be the guy to go. But it will be Aumont or Valdes because RAJ is not going to admit failure on a FA signing this early in the season -- even though anyone who watches him pitch can see that he has absolutely nothing on his pitches.

BAP: When was Chad Qualls cut last year?

Beerleaguer bashes players when they have bad games?

Now where's your evidence of that?

Philli: July 1.

Cyclic: Correction. Delmon Young runs like a Yak.

clout: I've never been strong at player evaluation.

"If Pettibone has a bad game expect the usual suspects to come out bashing."

clout, let me fix that for you:

"WHEN Pettibone has a bad game expect the usual suspects to come out bashing."

There, that's better.

BAP: And Valdes does?

Again- Valdes is your long man and is a third lefty. You could easily move Durbin into the long man spot- eliminate a third lefty and keep a good piece like DeFratus up. Durbin has been bad, Valdes has been worse but it is close.

The choice here is a tough one because both guys kind of suck.

awh: Thanks for fixing that.

clout, you're welcome!

TTI: Valdes sucks too, but I trust him more than Durbin.

Valdes is the strikeout-heavy long reliever who gets lit up.

Durbin is the groundout-heavy long reliever who gets lit up.

Valdes' left-handedness is less of an asset on a staff that includes 2 LHRPs and 2 LHSPs (3 when Lannan returns).

While Durbin has allowed plenty of inherited runners to score, he's allowed ERs in only 4 games - one of them during our previous set against the Indians, when nobody came away with a clean sheet. He's gone more than an inning in 4 of his 11 appearances, and with the exception of that Cleveland game his ERA has dropped in every appearance.

Anybody still wish the Phils had signed BJ Upton?

.151 .250 .254

3 HR 6 RBI 3 SB.

OPS+ of 39!!!!!

That should say, 2 other LHRPs.

Manners on Beeleaguer??? Quick, somebody call someone a DWOS.

I guess Delmon Young doesn't have any gaffes in RF and he has a strong arm. He also has an 81 OPS+, so really what does it matter?

Counting the number of errors Ruf has in LF is pretty useless.

Rollins, Utley, MYoung, Howard, DYoung (11th RF start?), Brown, Ruiz (day after night), Mayberry (1 game hot streak), Hamels

Phillies offense gets a well deserved day off after scoring 6 runs last night. Cole Hamels on the bump today guarantees another lackluster offensive effort today and a loss for Mr. Hamels. Enjoy the 2 days off guys!!

Didn't the A's strike out a ton last year? How was their offense? No doubt the Braves were playing over their heads, but the real luck for both of these teams is the early struggles of the Nationals, a team that talent-wise is head and shoulders above the Phils/Braves. Not sure the Braves have the starting pitching to run away with anything, but that offense is solid.

Valdes has 9 appearances, 7 of them for more than 1 inning. According to B-R his appearances average significantly lower leverage (0.202 aLI, vs. Durbin's 0.621).

Valdes has 3 total inherited runners, one of which he allowed to score. Durbin has 15, 9 of whom scored.

I would postulate that while neither Valdes nor Durbin are great pitchers, if you put Valdes into the same situations as Durbin, the results would be much closer to the same - and might even favor the Durbinator.

Ugh. Don't like Mayberry starting again. Or if he was starting, he should be in RF and let Revere start in center.

I'm hoping that one more month of this nonsense from D Young and we'll see a move. Of course, he had a sub 90 OPS+ last year too, so maybe Amaro is getting just what he wanted.

Stubbs-8, Kipnis-4, Cabrera-6, Swisher-9, Reynolds-3, Santana-2, Raburn-7, Aviles-5, Kluber-1

So goes the Indians lineup.

Two totally irrational fan-beliefs are most prevalent in my Phillies mind today:

1) It feels so incredibly predictable that when your home team is facing a red-hot opponent, puts a minor league pitcher on the mound, and the outlook is most bleak, you will somehow defy odds and win. And in convincing fashion.

2) This team won me back on Mother's Day. They certainly deserve the criticism they get here on a daily basis, but seeing Howard come through with the game winner just hooked me right back in. Flawed team? Absolutely. But we get to watch Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Cole for another year. I'll enjoy it while it lasts.

On the flip side - even the worst teams win 40-50% of their games. :)

Ph Ph: As well as Lee, Kendrick, Chooch and (maybe?) one of Brown/MYoung/JMJ.

While I have some degree of affection for the O's, this headline cracks me up:

"The Orioles are likely to seek a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher but are completely unwilling to include top prospects Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy in a package, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports."

Today's lineup is Exhibit A for UC's mismanagement of Mayberry.

Phillies to sign Zambrano to a MiLB deal. Clearly this has been in the works for nearly a week.

Phillies sign Carlos Zambrano to a minor league deal

So Revere isn't getting platooned. He's getting benched for Mayberry against a RHP when he's been getting on base at a .440 clip this month.

I mean, I'm at the point where I'm just not going to get worked up about this kind of stupidity any more and just expect it. Delmon continues to get sent out there looking like sh*t while they bench their 25 year old CF who is just starting to find his swing.

He has to be hurt. There's no other explanation. He just moved him back to lead-off and now he's benched two games in a row?

Philli: I'll take all of those guys, especially Chooch and KK. My list was just limited by the ones we've seen grow up in a Phils uniform and play out the entire "window" years.

Iceman: I was pretty sure we were willing to concede that Charlie's craziness was vulpine-esque if the Phillies scored in bunches yesterday.

I wouldn't have built the lineup for that game the way he did, but 6 definitely counts as "bunches." Especially for a pitching-centric team.

yo, new thread.

"Counting the number of errors Ruf has in LF is pretty useless."

Sophist, while I agree with the basic premise, what would you say if Ruf had 7 Errors in those 46 chances?

If he was fast and had great range and a great arm - that is, if they had some kind of metric you could look at for MiL players that indicated 'neutrality' as a fielder - would you say he was an average fielder.

I know errors aren't "that" important, but intuitively it seems to me that the first order of business for a fielder is to catch what you can get to. Range doesn't matter if you bobble or drop the ball when you get there.

I'm so psyched about Big Z. I get to watch my favorite stupid dumb internet video with Carlos Zambrano again. Gasolina Baby!

This should be interesting...

clout is, once again, sadly mistaken, and continues to publish false information with impunity.

Yaks can run 25 mph, almost as fast as Usain Bolt's 28 mph. To compare a Yak to Delmon Young is a serious insult to Yaks (and all other bovine creatures) everywhere. (I suggest, clout, that if you hear a semi-quickly approaching "moo" coming up behind you, you should climb a tree, or else suffer the wrath of a hairy Himalayan beast.)

A more appropriate comparison would be to say that "Delmon Young runs like a walrus."

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