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Thursday, May 30, 2013

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Repost:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/5/30/4380088/catz-corner-i-dont-care-about-dom-browns-walk-rate-in-may-and-neither

Good write up on Brown.

I liked this analogy...

"As for the walks? They'll come back. Dom has too good of an eye. You don't forget how to ride a bycicle because you're perfecting how to pop a wheelie."

Not to mention, that if they win they hit .500.

Rare indeed. I'm very surprised they've won 2 so far.

I haven't seen the lineup yet because I haven't looked, but I hope Howard sits. I know he's been getting a few hits, but mostly he's clueless at the plate. last night's HR not withstanding, he's not making contact, and certainly not turning on pitches. Play RFD at first tonight.

I know the whole "fire the hitting coach" meme likely jumped the shark long ago after the Milt firing, the GG jokes and now the multiple guys in that position this season, but I was taken aback a bit by some of Wally Joyner's comments on approach that came to light on Missanelli's show yesterday.

Essentially, and I'm paraphrasing slightly, he said "You hit the fastball so you don't have to hit the splitter."

Keep in mind that Joyner is the coach most frequently associated with Brown's development. This mentality is certainly one where you could see it not exactly being conducive to patience and drawing a few walks (which, as our GM notes, aren't "productive").

Basically, I don't see walks/patience/discipline being in the agenda when it comes to Joyner working with Brown, and we know it's not paramount with the Front Office. Whether or not that changes, I guess time will tell (though, based on Joyner's comments, it will likely be dictated by the frequency at which Dom sees fastballs).

Jack: If any of us were to guess which "skill" emerged this early in the season for Dom, I'm not sure many of us would have picked power.

If Wally Joyner really did help him change his swing to be quicker through the zone, and that's the reason for the power improvement... then my hat's off to Wally!

So is this officially a 4 game series and not 2 2 game series? Just wondering, for future tweets talking about 'last time this happened' or 'haven't that since 2013'...

Prediction: May 25-26, 2013 will be the last time a player not named Ben Revere bats leadoff in consecutive games for the Phillies for (at least) the next 3 years.

Ben Revere is hitting .379 vs. LHP this season. (SSS alert... just 30 PAs).

A little surprised by that.

"The Phillies haven't had a three-game winning streak over the Red Sox since 2000"

Who could forget Alex Arias and Kevin Jordan walk offs in that series?

Oh yeah and of course the extra inning pitching heorics by Jason Boyd, Bryan Ward, and the winning pitcher Steve Schrenk.

Joyner's comments on Howard's "bad habits" were interesting. Can't help but wonder if some of this year's struggles are because he really is trying to consciously change his approach.

Though, candidly, it seems that they are more a result of that inside pitch that Joyner mentions, that Howard just cannot lay off of.

"I called the phillies clubhouse today. Told them to tell Howard to start hitting home runs or would kick his ass. Must of worked. Swing hard"

Listen to your friend Matt Stairs. He's a cool dude.

Good ol AUMONT 4 walks in .2 inn. But he has great stuff!

Every year the Phils play the Red Sox 'okay' at CBP but get brained at Fenway.

If they win tonight, I didn't see 3 of 4 coming. Saw a split and possibly 1-3.

Anyone know how bad Adam Morgan's shoulder is messed up?

Howard benched tonight.

Dyoung cleanup.

"As for the walks? They'll come back. Dom has too good of an eye. You don't forget how to ride a bycicle because you're perfecting how to pop a wheelie."

But I guess you DO forget how to spell "bicycle."

Revere has always hit LHP, which is why the week that Manuel decided to treat him as a platoon guy was all the more perplexing.

Revere
Cesar
Rollins
Dyoung
Brown
Frandsen
Kratz
Galvis

DYoung as cleanup? Good grief.

That's... interesting.

Revere is batting .322 the last two seasons vs. LHP (199 ABs). .297 the last three seasons (350 ABs).

Basically in this lineup, he's the last guy that should be platooned.

Howard sitting, yet Brown is still hitting fifth below DYak.

I know, I know. Pointless to complain about lineup construction.

Cool to see Cesar, but how does John Mayberry not get a start vs a LHP on such an offensively challenged team?

How many utility IF can you fit into one lineup?

Wait, don't answer that. Because the answer is this lineup plus Mini-Mart.

lorecore: Yeah, not sure why Frandsen isn't at 3B and Mayberry at 1B.

I'm intereted to see Cesar, but I agree with you.

Iceman: How would you construct the lineup?

No matter where Dom hits, he's probably hitting behind a sub-.300 OBP guy.

I guess with tonight's lineup, you'd want Frandsen hitting 2nd and Dom 3rd, since Frandsen has great numbers against a lefty. But otherwise, not sure what you can do. Hard to make lemonade out of this lineup of lemons.

Cool to see Cesar, but how does John Mayberry not get a start vs a LHP on such an offensively challenged team?

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 03:24 PM


Delmon Young.

I didn't even notice that Mayberry's not in the lineup.

Frandsen, who is babe Ruth against LHP is batting sixth. Rollins, who can't hit LHP, is third.

I know it's the fallacy of predetermined outcome, but it's still gonna be really annoying if Delmon Young comes up with runners on and grounds into an inning ending DP. Only to have Dom Brown blast a solo shot to lead off the next inning.

Lineup construction matters at least a little. (Yes, even on a team full of =/<.300 OBP players.)

"The Phillies haven't had a three-game winning streak over the Red Sox since 2000"

Who could forget Alex Arias and Kevin Jordan walk offs in that series?

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 02:50 PM

Oh yeah and of course the extra inning pitching heorics by Jason Boyd, Bryan Ward, and the winning pitcher Steve Schrenk.

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 02:52 PM

Makes me kind of glad I was in KC in 2000. Bleccch.

Cesar's splits: .255 vs left, .326 vs right

Cyclic, even better. Bases loaded, 1 out. Yes, I can totally see that...

The lineup cements what we already knew: Tonight is a loss.

someone from the last thread said the DOM's HR/FB% will normalize. That is untrue, a hitter's HR/FB% is a skill controlled by a hitter.
A pitcher's HR/FB% will normalize, not a hitters.
I agree that his HR/FB% will drop, but thats because I don't view DOM's skillset as a +40HR hitter, not because he's due for some type of statistically regression.
Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 01:59 PM

That was me, and I didn't mean that Brown would normalize to league avg, but he would normalize for himself...he's never had a HR/FB ratio this high in his career, and I don't think it's sustainable.

3B Juan Francisco designated for assignment by #Braves to open roster spot for Alex Wood.

— David O'Brien (@ajcbraves) May 30, 2013

No plate discipline, so he'd fit in perfectly here. In all seriousness, he'd be a nice bench pickup.

Could be worse. Imagine if Dom was hitting in front of DY. Two on, 1 out, catcher stands up and waves 4 fingers at the pitcher...

Just when you think they might have nailed it. No Martinez over Hernandez then your eyes move down and you see Delmon Young hitting cleanup.

Iceman - I agree about Revere, esp since the whole idea is to see what you have in him. On the other hand, you have to play the best lineup you can. For the Phils that often means getting Mayberry in against a starting LHP. He's got a career .877 OPS against LHP and can play CF. In that sense, if I had to choose between Revere and Mayberry, I'd choose Mayberry.

I guess the question is whether it's either/or. I mean, they could just cut Young and then go with Brown-Revere-Mayberry.

Just when you think they might have nailed it. No Martinez over Hernandez then your eyes move down and you see Delmon Young hitting cleanup.

Just tells you they don't even know who Delmon Young is. Amazing.

I'm hoping that Revere can get through a whole game without some kind of gaffe. Here's hoping.

Joe D, depends on the definition of 'cleanup', no? If it means 'removing any pesky baserunners who reached just before me', then DY is a perfect fit!

Hate to say I told you so....

As Delmon nears his return from ankle rehab, we'll doubtless see quotes from Cholly like "I can see places in the lineup where I like Delmon," as he did with Juan Pierre in spring training last year.

What's the over/under on Delmon's appearances in the #3 or #4 lineup slot?

Posted by: ColonelTom | Wednesday, January 23, 2013 at 12:27 PM

With tonight's game, we're at 2 so far.

GM calls up multiple relievers over DeFratus, manager pitches DeFratus over all other relievers including ones on MLB team all year.

GM calls up Martinez before Cesar, manager plays Cesar over Martinez.

Nothing like the GM and Manager working against each other. Also, in each instance the Manager is right.

Wow this lineup.

Why is Young 4th and not 6th?
Why is Kratz not 5th?
Why is Ceaser 2nd and Galvis 8th?
Why is Frandsen at 1B when he can't play there?
Why is Frandsen not at 2B?
Why is Mayberry not at 1B?

Jack - I know what you mean the lineup to a point. But their facing a lefty, have one of their best LHP hitters on the bench, their other great LHP hitter hitting 6th, and Brown hitting 5th. With their 82 OPS+ everyday RF hitting cleanup. They won't find a lineup with this roster that averages 5 a game but they can do way better than this.

s/in the lineup/on the bench/

and I will concur...

lorecore: I'm waiting for RAJ to release Delmon after a game in which Cholly bats him cleanup.

Everyone knows your cleanup hitter is always the biggest and slowest veteran in your lineup. Who are you people?

Make it stop!

The italics, I mean.

My lineup

1.Revere
2.Frandsen 2B
3.Jimmy
4.Brown
5.Kratz
6.Young
7.Mayberry 1B
8.Galvis


Can swap Mayberry and Young if wanted in order.

Corn: I have argued back and forth with awh and bap for a full month straight in some instances over the years - yet in a short 3-4 months of you posting I think I disagree with things you say more than those two combined.

"Why not Kratz 5th?"

You know who would look good in this lineup tonight? Darin Ruf or Josh Fields. But alas, they need Martinez on the bench for who knows what.

Look at how well Kratz has been hitting lately. Look at how bad Young is period.

That is my reason for Kratz @ 5th

Sophist: I think tonight my lineup would be this--

Revere
Frandsen
Brown
Mayberry
Kratz
Rollins
Young
Galvis

I don't know though. I think that lineup sucks too. What would your lineup be? I know I would have Mayberry in at 1B and Frandsen at 3B. And I think I'd have Frandsen and Brown in the top 4 somewhere.

Other than that, it's throwing crap against a wall I feel like.

Bat a guy with a career .877 OPS against LHP 7th? Mayberry should probably be hitting cleanup today. Should be easy for even these guys to understand since he'd be playing 1B too.

And I really have no stated anything that isn't that far fetched.

Well, anyone who thought they'd see a lineup this season with

Utley
Howard
Chooch

collectively not penciled in - please raise your hand.

"But alas, they need Martinez on the bench for who knows what."

For his versatility™?

@Jack

How about a
Mayberry
Brown
Kratz

at the 3 4 5

To say that this has been a strange season already is an understatement. If you would have told me tonight's lineup had a chance to pull this team to .500, I would have said you are crazy. It doesn't mean I'm optimistic about the rest of the season or next week for that matter, but it's hard to believe this team isn't 10 games under at this point. Having said that, when you play the Sox four straight and manage to miss Lester AND Buchholz, you have to take three of four.

If it were my lineup to write up, it would look like this:

Revere - CF
Frandsen - 3B
JRoll - SS
Mayberry - 1B
Brown - LF
Kratz - C
No-D - RF (ONLY if I HAD to play him)
Hernandez - 2B


In my imperfect world, Ruf would be on the team and starting at 1B tonight, and Mayberry would be in RF. Ruf would hit 6th after Brown.

Jack - That lineup does kinda stink too, but it's still some fractions of a run better than the one they're using today (which adds up over the season).

I'd call up Ruf and have him play 1B.

Revere
Mayberry
Ruf
Brown
Frandsen
Galvis
Rollins
P
Kratz

awh: I absolutely did.

All 3 are 34 years old. Two coming off big time injuries. Other is a catcher, and even suspended for a month.

Revere
Frandsen
Rollins
Mayberry
Brown
Ruf
Kratz
Hernandez


That's what I would do.

Our 5-6-7 hitters tonight are probably the three best hitters in the lineup (against a lefty starter).

At least they're stacked together?

Ortiz at 1B = Cesar better be bunting.

lore, I thought that 2 of the 3 could be out of the lineup, and until recently I was right, even with Chooch suspended.

No, with Howard NEEDING a DL trip (Earth to r00b!) and Utley and Chooch already there, it's pretty much a worst case scenario...

assuming those guys could produce near their career averages.

Sophist, I like your lineup too.

Delmon Young is definitely the new Mini-Mart. He did nothing on merit to earn the job that was handed to him. And since having that job handed to him, he's done nothing on merit to deserve keeping it. But keep it he does. The only difference is that Mini-Mart was a backup whereas Young is the starting right fielder & No. 4/5 hitter in the lineup.

"Having said that, when you play the Sox four straight and manage to miss Lester AND Buchholz, you have to take three of four."

Unless you end up facing a pitcher who you have to tip your cap to™

Braves looking to deal Francisco, but I frankly can't imagine why the Phils would go after him. Sure, he's better than Mini Mart, but it's not like Mini Mart should be here (or will be here long). Our utility IFs are Galvis and Frandsen. You don't deal for a guy to be a temporary utility IF.

BAP, you must have missed his first AB as a Phillie. He homered, and therefore, has obtained untouchable status, since that accompanies his #1 pick draft status (albeit 10 years ago...).

Sadly, this is 100% how Cholly thinks.

What's the over/under on Delmon's appearances in the #3 or #4 lineup slot?

Posted by: ColonelTom | Wednesday, January 23, 2013 at 12:27 PM

With tonight's game, we're at 2 so far.

Posted by: ColonelTom | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 03:49 PM

Has that signing been sitting in your craw for 4 months?

What do you mean, BAP? Young's got 3 HR (in 81 AB with 7 BB ...)

KAS, put me in the camp who think, especially after looking at tonight's lineup, that we don't need another utility infielder, even if it's a marginal upgrade vs. one of the many we already have.

"You don't deal for a guy to be a temporary utility IF"

Well, a rational GM doesn't deal for a guy to be a temporary utility IF. But we're talking about Ruben Amaro here. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility.

Part of me seriously wonders if Cholly decided to just play his most "versatile" players tonight and he simply picked their positions/batting order out of a hat.

Not the cast of characters (let alone the lineup) I'd have trotted out there to try to pull to .500 before hitting the easy part of the schedule.

"Sadly, this is 100% how Cholly thinks."

Good point. It's like those great plays that Mini-Mart allegedly made in a February, 2010 intra-squad game. From that day on, he was a defensive whiz at 6 positions in Cholly's mind.

That is a split-squad lineup in spring and a weak one at that.

Even if you had a stellar pitching staff, that lineup is a 75-win max team.

Ctom: With Utley out for likely another 2-3 weeks, I would jump on Juan Francisco, .795 OPS vs RHP and adequate glove at 3B.

INF while Utley on DL:

MYoung (R)
Rollins (B)
Galvis (B)
Howard (L)
Frandsen (R)
Francisco (L)


It's not just Charlie who thinks like that.

"To evaluate [Young], the Phillies relied on seven-year-old scouting reports from the outfielder’s days as a Tampa Bay farmhand. Two of Amaro’s assistants, Scott Proefrock and Bart Braun, were members of the Rays organization when Young was selected first overall in the 2003 draft. They vouched for Young’s ability."

From an Inquirer article in the Spring.

clarification: I would pick up on waivers, not trade for.

Is there a Delmon Young baseball card out there which only has his 2010 stats on it?

'Cause I'm pretty sure that's the one Amaro has.

Delmon Young has spent his whole life playing baseball. He knows how to play RF. Isn't this what Proefrock said on the radio?

Since HHU are decidedly not healthy this year, the universally accepted prereq for a competitive season, can we say then that this team is actually exceeding Beerleaguer preseason expectations?

I'm going to abstain from joking about Ortiz playing 1B during games where my team fields a right side of the infield consisting of a AAA call-up in his first game not really known for his glove and our utility IF who has started all of 9 total games at 1B in his big league career.

It took me awhile but I found the Cholly Mini-Mart quote. From the March 28, 2011 Beerleaguer:

“Let me tell you something," Manuel said, "if he (Martinez) plays defense in the big leagues like he has here he'll have no trouble playing. He made some plays [at shortstop in Lakeland on Saturday]. He made three or four plays, a couple of them were off the chart. One of them might have been the best play I've ever seen."

Wait, they relied on a seven year old farmhand's scouting report?

Forget Rube's Egregious Experiments: Recall Undervalued Farmhand!

It's not just Charlie who thinks like that.

"To evaluate [Young], the Phillies relied on seven-year-old scouting reports from the outfielder’s days as a Tampa Bay farmhand. Two of Amaro’s assistants, Scott Proefrock and Bart Braun, were members of the Rays organization when Young was selected first overall in the 2003 draft. They vouched for Young’s ability."

From an Inquirer article in the Spring.

Posted by: Jack | Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 04:21 PM

That is just...WOW

BAP, I think it's precisely that mindset that explains why we, as fans with a bit more of a progressive, statistical derived viewpoint, with never, ever, ever understand some of the moves/non-moves and "gut" decisions that are the basis for how this team operates. Throw in a similar naivete from the GM and you have a recipe for a fan base who might actually and legitimately be more knowledgeable about the current state of baseball than these guys who have been in it all of their lives.

Corn:

Wow this lineup.

Why is Young 4th and not 6th?
Why is Kratz not 5th?
Why is Ceaser 2nd and Galvis 8th?
Why is Frandsen at 1B when he can't play there?
Why is Frandsen not at 2B?
Why is Mayberry not at 1B?

And,

Why is Private Pyle out of his bunk after lights-out?
Why is Private Pyle holding that weapon? Why aren't you stomping Private Pyle's guts out?

"Wait, they relied on a seven year old farmhand's scouting report?"

When I read this, I thought at first you meant a scouting report from a 7-yr old farmhand. Then I realized you really meant a 7-yr old scouting report from a farmhand. Then I realized I was probably right the first time...

The 7 yr scouting report only came up when they got called out for valuing DYoung's RBI total as being superior to Chooch last year. Thats the real reason and first thing Amaro said about why he's going be a starter. The scouting reports was where Amaro went to so no one could counter it since its some mythical thing that has no facts to attack.

I'd put more stock in a current scouting report from a 7-year old farmhand than I would in a 7-year old scouting report from ANY farmhand.

It's a good thing nothing ever changes in seven years.

I actually read that same 7-year old scouting report. It has Ryan Howard pegged for 58 homeruns this year.

They've stumbled on winning games to get to .500. Maybe tonight they will break form and win the game. If I were a betting man, I would not touch this game with a ten foot pole.

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