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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

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Yo, new thread. Again.

Delmon Young and Carlos Zambrano. I guess Ruben figures if we can't lead the league in anything positive, at least we can have the lead in the # of a**holes on our roster.

Good God!

Looks like all the riding Revere's gonna do is riding that pine...

Gonna need some more bunches today, I think

This signing is more of a "Who cares?" to me. I think Zambrano sucks. He walks a ton of batters, and I doubt he'll ever pitch meaningful innings here. Kinda like Aaron Cook with a shi**y attitude. Ruben has cornered the market on "reclamation projects." Yawn.

No Bourn for the Tribe today?

So we've basically written off Ben Revere after 40 games...

Great trade.

Odds of Zambrano ever starting a game for us are pretty slim...its a no-downside depth signing.

If it works, great, if not, nothing lost.

Haven't heard any word on Lannan's progress and Zambrano hasn't been a decent starter since '09.

Guess it can't hurt to have another arm of the pen & a little RHP relief depth. Zambrano is a zero a starter.

So, Zambrano is their insurance policy if Cloyd has a bad start or two?

I feel better now. How about the rest of you guys?

Philli - when trade value starts being heavily impacted by Third K looking numbers, then you'll have a stronger point. Worley was no stud, but he was young and cheap with a proven track record and solid ERA. 7+ K9 and ~3 BB9. That's a solid trade piece.

The Ben Revere thing is unbelievable to me.

He's at 129 PA right now. .237 .286 .263

If they're still trotting out Delmon freaking Young after 3 more weeks and 80+ more PA of .216 .295 .378 (or worse) I'm gonna lose my mind.

Hard to not like this move? What? I hate the move. Pettibone has been pitching great and we've got some solid young arms to test out and we add a hot-headed, aging veteran? This is an even worse move than signing Pedro Martinez. There is such a thing as team chemistry. Then, J.A. Happ should have been pitching in the post season and we decided to try and buy a WS. Didn't work as I said it wouldn't. Now, we bring in this knucklehead to help this pathetic gang get to the trade deadline at .500? I think there's a ton not to like about this move, especially from the team chemistry and development standpoint.

Regarding Ruf, just because I wasn't around the computer when the discussions were being had and I keep with Cyclic in posting our mantra in every thread...

When we revived the campaign, I was admittedly a little uneasy about it. It seemed a bit dangerous to go ahead and call him up right when he gets red hot against AAA pitchers because I'm sure he's still making adjustments, and sticking to those adjustments usually means getting some more time to work with them. Not to mention, he needs to keep getting a consistant, steady amount of playing time in the higher levels.

That being said, since he's continuing to tear, the Phillies continue to be in a fragile situation, and Delmon continues to do the bare minimum, I think calling him up is the best solution. Can Durbin and put Ruf in if you can't get rid of The Walrus (thanks, Andy). But get him up here and get him playing, and don't Revere him in the first couple of weeks if he needs to make a few more adjustments.

Sophist: Show me another pitcher who was traded with even 90% of Worley's backwards-K rate, and then we can have a discussion about whether other teams value that appropriately.

The fact of the matter is that this is the second time RAJ has moved a young starter (who turned out to be overperforming) as a major component of a trade.

I'm not saying I agree with most of the moves Amaro makes - or even half. However, when it comes to trading pitchers away, when has he gotten burned other than with Lee and Cosart?

They don't have any drink machines in the dugout in LV, do they?

Zambo the barbarian is beginning in extended ST, so I imagine it's Clearwater who might need to hire a beverage concierge for the new acquisition.

Hard to not like this move? What? I hate the move. Pettibone has been pitching great and we've got some solid young arms to test out and we add a hot-headed, aging veteran? This is an even worse move than signing Pedro Martinez. There is such a thing as team chemistry. Then, J.A. Happ should have been pitching in the post season and we decided to try and buy a WS. Didn't work as I said it wouldn't. Now, we bring in this knucklehead to help this pathetic gang get to the trade deadline at .500? I think there's a ton not to like about this move, especially from the team chemistry and development standpoint.

Posted by: Mark | Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 12:15 PM


This is LOL worthy.

"...and don't Revere him in the first couple of weeks..."

Ben's now been verb-icized, ala Munson (the bowler, not the Yankee.)

We were supposed to "not dislike" the Delmon Young move for similar reasons regarding the ease of discard if he doesn't perform.

He's not performing, yet he is continually trotted out there every day, despite having Ruf as a legitimate younger option (not to mention a potential platoon partner in Nix rotting away as a glorified Ross Gload).

Basically, that's a long way of saying that I ABSOLUTELY dislike this move. Especially after Cloyd showed that he's capable of filling in for a few spot starts until Lannan is back.

Rube was hell bent on "outside help" and he found it. With it being a veteran who was good 7 years ago, I think we all know how this is likely to play out, expend-ability aside.

Philli - I'm not really sure why you're changing the subject to whether or not Amaro was right to trade Worley, but the point I was debating in the last thread was what Worley's trade value was. BAP said this Revere management is even more frustrating because the Phils gave up something significant to bring him in. I agree with that. It seems that you think despite 277+ IP with a 113 ERA+ (3.50 ERA) and a 2.45 K/BB, a .581 win pct, that Worley -- all of 24 years old and making < $500K -- wasn't all that valuable.

I agree that there was some argument for regression, but not every advanced metric is taken as sacred among MLB GMs, I'm sure. Besides, Worley had a 3.32 FIP in 2011 and a 3.85 FIP in 2012 so it's not like the writing was on the wall all 3 years he was here. But like Happ I was happy to see the Phils move him when they did. That's not really what we were debating though.

He isn't Pineda or Hamels or some other young hot pitching type, but 24 year-olds with that track record don't grow on trees.

Zambrano makes V. Padilla seem absolutely sober, calm, cool and collected.

Yeah, as a low-risk move, I like bringing Zambrano in.

The problem is with this FO/management who make decisions more on account of a guy's history/reputation/veteraness than any more sophisticated idea of player evaluation. Phils will give these guys every opportunity to succeed and run them out there ad naus..

WP: The Young/Ruf situation isn't a perfect analogy. Ruf would never play RF, and Dom is shaky enough in left. Young hasn't been GG-caliber, but he hasn't been bad on defense, and certainly not as bad as a number of people here said he would be.

If DYoung were moved, then either you're platooning Dom, putting him in RF, or not giving Ruf significant playing time.

We get worked up (justifiably so, in most cases) over the reclamation projects that Ruben refuses to give up on, but rarely seem to remember that he does give up on far more than he keeps. Just look at all the guys he dumped during/after ST.

Now the question is, when Zambrano is pitching and Revere gets a day on, will Revere bat 9th?

Sophist: and I said in my first post that I agreed with a majority of what he'd said (about the management of Revere), but that what we gave up in trade was not a massive haul.

We gave up a guy whose numbers looked good on the surface, but started to look a bit sketchier the deeper you went. If other teams weren't willing to look at those deeper numbers, it doesn't mean that he wasn't being overvalued by the acquiring team - just that they didn't realize it.

He had 1.3 really good seasons for a young starter, but his minor-league numbers didn't peg him for a guaranteed #2/3 SP, and a thorough GM could have done a little research that would indicate he wasn't as good as his basic metrics made him appear.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that actually happened, which is why they demanded May as well.

Sophist - What other players have the Phillies run out there due to reputation? Maybe Juan Pierre last year but he actually did have a decent season. Luis Castillo was cut in ST after an absolute firestorm in the fandom. Kris Benson and Scott Elarton are two others that I can think of that they gave a minor league shot that didn't work out.

With regard to the lineups, weren't we just saying you can't judge decisions based solely on their results?

Just because Delmon Young hasn't been horrific in RF doesn't mean it's the right call to start him every day in RF even though he A) hasn't played the position since 2007 and B) hasn't even played the OF at all regularly since 2010.

The half-year plan with a veteran pitcher has worked before (Pedro, although not in Game 6). Zambrano made the Marlins look pretty smart very early last season but he eventually faded and finished as a reliever. It was still a good signing for them though. A truncated season will help him. He'll be a useful addition, primarily out of the pen.

Love it. When you go out with the team after a game, and you got demon and big Z backing u up. There isn't no one to fear.

"what we gave up in trade was not a massive haul."

I didn't say it was a "massive" haul. I said it was a "significant" one. I don't really know how anyone could disagree with that.

I guess Delmon Young qualifies under your premise. Especially if he is the "starting RF" for the forseeable future.

"Cole Hamels (1-5, 4.18) opposes Indians right-hander Corey Kluber (2-2, 5.64). Kluber is a 6-foot-4 fastball-cutter guy with a .311 opponents’ batting average. In two starts in May he’s allowed 11 runs and 22 baserunners in 10 1/3 innings. He's a tall right-hander with a 92 mph fastball. Nothing special."

Sounds like exactly the type of SP who will confound this lineup.

"Now the question is, when Zambrano is pitching and Revere gets a day on, will Revere bat 9th?"

In addition to the HR's Zambrano DOES have a higher career OPS...

Though your caveat of a "day on" is likely the sticking point.

If the under/over on Zambrano's innings pitched as a Phillie is 35,I take the under. Thoughts?

Reburb - I was taking a shot at the Delmon thing.

Pedro was a great signing.

Bashing it shows you weren't paying attention in 2009.

***Now the question is, when Zambrano is pitching and Revere gets a day on, will Revere bat 9th?***

Revere will still bat 8th because Zambrano will be batting 5th.

Sophist - Gotcha.

I see some overreaction to the Zambrano signing. Corey is right - it's a MINOR LEAGUE signing so there is LITTLE RISK.

He's going to be assigned to the minors and if he doesn't pitch well there the only shot he has to catch a game at the Zen is if he buys a ticket.

Team chemistry is a bit overrated - by many accounts the 1980 Phillies had little locker room chemistry. After all, this team went to the WS twice with Brett Myers in the locker room.

The only thing that matter is whether or not Zambrano can still pitch or whether the Big Z turns out to be a Big Zero. There is plenty of evidence to make one skeptical as to whether he can still get MLB hitters out.

***He's going to be assigned to the minors and if he doesn't pitch well there the only shot he has to catch a game at the Zen is if he buys a ticket.***

Same with Delmon Young?

Though I dont believe that Rube has brought out the annointing oils for Zambrano as the 5th starter yet at least.

Philli - We're talking about trade value. If other GM's "overvalued" Worley, that supports the idea that Worley had solid trade value despite some underlying concerns. I'm not even sure a fangraphs writer would argue Worley was all smoke and mirrors. He had solid FIP in 2/3 years prior to injury.

What other players have the Phillies run out there due to reputation?

Ryan Howard? {ducking}

[insert any MLB/fringe AAA pitcher] Sounds like exactly the type of SP who will confound this lineup.

Posted by: Chris in VT


Fixed that one.

Dontrelle was another Value Village signing that died in Clearwater......

NEPP - Delmon was a MLB signing.

I figured we signed Zambrano for his bat....

Add me to people who want Revere to get a chance. When he was first benched, I was fine with it, being frustrated with his batting. Since then, he's been performing about up to snuff (for him, anyway) when he plays...and yet he seems to be relegated to cheerleader and part-time player. It really doesn't make sense to start Mayberry over him when we're facing a RHP.

And the arguments being made about playing D. Young while benching Revere make sense to me. My answer to those arguments, though, is that 1) D. Young hasn't yet been here a month, so he hasn't had as long a look as Revere had and 2) Charlie will give a longer leash to a guy who can hit for power.

awh: I agree with 99% of your 12:52 post. I like the signing too. The Phillies have 2 rookies in their starting rotation and Zambrano, because of age & past performance, would seem to have more upside than anyone else who is still available via free agency or waiver wire.

The 1% on which I disagree is that I think there's slightly more risk than you're acknowledging. The risk is what sophist said: if RAJ already has a preconceived idea that Zambrano is his man, then the bar for him to make the majors will be set very low & the bar to get rid of him will be set very high. I hereby submit Exhibits A and B: Mini-Mart & Delmon Young.

I see how this argument took shape about the price we paid for Revere and how it affects what we should currently do with Revere, but it's gone so far off the rails. We all agree that Revere shouldn't be sitting the bench due to performance at this point in the season.

I personally think his track record of a full season last year warrants a longer leash. The upside of team control over his abilities for the coming years is another good reason to see what we've got. The fact that we spent what we spent (whether it's a lot or not) is a third justification.

There's a lot invested in this guy - enough to not bench him in favor of JMJ against a RHP and another day watching DYoung. Kid's gotta play.

Can't believe I am with BAP 100% on this Revere thing.

This isn't even an argument about what you think of him as a player. It's about how the Phillies valued him when they traded for him to be the starter. And it was almost universally agreed at the time that not only did they pay a lot for Ben Revere, but they may have even overpaid for him.

After one bad month he's getting benched against RHP for another guy that has a sub-.700 OPS against them in his career. That's just lunacy. I mean, there's no good argument for it. And to top it all off, he'd actually been hitting this month when Manuel has all of a sudden decided that he is a part-time player.

If this is more than just a short-term thing, and Manuel continues giving Revere multiple days off in a row for JMJ or Galvis or whoever, save me a seat on the 'fire Charlie' bandwagon. Because now he's starting to mess with the development of players that will probably be here much longer than he will.

That inning had a very 2013 Hamels-like feel to it. Way too many balls & way too many fouled off 2-strike pitches.

Cole with a pretty high pitch count in his first inning. Seems to be a continuing problem this year.

Did Cole have a single 1st pitch strike in the 1st?

Maybe the benching has to do with that atrocious defensive play on that triple last night?

That would piss me off as a manager.

Coles wallet seems to have changed his arm slot because he sure doesn't look like the Cole of old.

Cleveland's guy, by the way, has thrown 1st pitch strikes to both Rollins and Utley, and have gotten out on just 6 pitches.

Kluber gets out of his inning with 9 pitches, by contrast.

9 pitches for Kluber, 24 for Hamels.

Very inspiring bottom half for the fightins.

It's pretty impressive for a team to see all of 9 pitches in an inning & still manage to work a strikeout into the equation.

Indians at +158 today. I'll take that and bet against 'Day Hamels'

Mayberry getting another start scares me. Maybe Charlie just wants to reward him for a big game last night (against a lefty, I know). Though I would rather see D Young be the odd man out, I wonder if there is a chance that Revere is the guy who ends up off the club and in AAA for a retool of his swing, with Mayberry playing center, Galvis as backup, and then Ruf as power bat off bench and spot starter in left and first. If we see Galvis taking any starts over the next week or two, we'll know it's possible. I am sure they're hoping that D Young starts to hit soon, but if not I hope this makes it an easier decision.

Galvis will be getting more starts in the OF, esp. if Mayberry doesn't hit. Charlie has said he wants to do it, & you can damn well bet he'll find a way to try.

Again w/ the foul balls. They have been killing Hamels. He needs to put guys away.

I'm already frustrated with Hamels today. I hope he settles down by the 3rd inning - and hasn't given up a few runs by then.

46 pitches already. Wow...

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 38s
Indians have fouled off 15 pitches already as Hamels' pitch count rises.


I want our guys to work the pitcher, too.

Wow this ump is terrible, very inconsistent. You know it's bad when they put up a graphic reminder on balls and strikes after a couple questionable calls.

Hamels hasn't looked comfortable on the mound all year, even when he has been successful, & his command has been awful.

Whew!

Geez, Hamels, get it together, will ya?

51 pitches through 2 innings for Cole.

6 of the Indians' first 9 hitters have had ABs with 6+ pitches. 3 have had ABs with 8+ pitches and 5 have gone to 3-ball counts. WTF is going on with Hamels this year? His control has been unrelentingly horrible.

LA - Zambrano going to be a bat off the bench?

Love his deadpan humor at times.

"I don't know if I agree with the 'high reward' ..."

-L.A., on r00b's latest "Low Risk/High Reward" acquisition

So right now Ruf's roster spot is being hampered because of Delmon Young. Wonder how much long RAJ keeps going with the experiment. I know he said its only been a month so you can't write him off yet.

At least Dom's fouling off some pitches here, making Kluber work a bit.

Cole's season has been a major struggle so far. His ERA is not indicative of how much he has struggled. K% down, BB% up. His command has been consistently spotty. And he seems to be down a tick in terms of velocity (anecdotal).

In many ways, this is the worst I've ever seen him pitch, even 2009. The similarity is the amount of foul balls and high pitch counts, as well as decreased K rates. But his walk rate is double 2009 right now, and his BABIP was .317 then versus .250 this season. Balls haven't found a ton of holes yet, but they will, and his ERA is going to balloon. (FIP is 4.48, highest of his career by a half run).

Because of Lee and Kendrick, the offense, and his own ability to work out of jams and get some good luck, his bad (by his standards) start has gone largely overlooked. I expect it to be a bigger and bigger issue for the team as the season goes on, possibly starting today.

I don't know which is the more revolting aspect of this game: watching Cole pitch, or watching our offense hit. This is not Felix Hernandez we're facing. This guy is wretched.

If we constantly speculated that Halladay was hurt because he couldn't throw strikes all of a sudden, don't we have to do the same thing with Hamels? His velocity is still up so you have to figure it's nothing major, but there has to be a explanation for this. Would like to see his delivery side-by-side with last year and see if anything jumps out. You would assume Rich Dubee was doing this but I don't have too much faith in that.

"Kluber is a 6-foot-4 fastball-cutter guy with a .311 opponents’ batting average. In two starts in May he’s allowed 11 runs and 22 baserunners in 10 1/3 innings. He's a tall right-hander with a 92 mph fastball. Nothing special."

Our offense is nothing special, either.

Kluber has fewer pitches in 2IP than Hamels threw in just the 1st inning.

This ump does stink according to Gameday. Lots of borderline strikes getting called balls, if the Gameday robots are to be believed.

Cole just isn't Cole. Its alarming

Hamels' fastball command this year has varied from above average to dreadful with moer of the latter.

Cole est broken

Over/under on how many pitches Cole has thrown at the end of 3? I say 75

over for sure

MG: Exactly. And it's impacting everything else.

If this were a playoff game, I'd say get him the hell out of there. I'd be utterly shocked if this ends well. He has no control whatsoever. Again.

Well, sometimes, when a guy is on his game, there is nothing you can do but just sit back and tip your cap. There's a small group of guys, the very elite, who when they're on, they're basically unhittable. To me, names that come to mind are...

Clayton Kershaw
Justin Verlander
Ricky Nolasco
Kevin Slowey
Mike Leake
Ian Kennedy
Bronson Arroyo
Jeff Locke
Zach McAllister
Trevor Bauer
Jose Fernandez
Patrick Corbin
Corey Kluber

I'll take the under, just to be contrary.

Brandon McCarthy

LA - Cole leads the NL in walks

Funny that Swisher, who usually draws a ton of walks, is the only guy in the Indians' lineup who has had 2 very quick ABs.

I think we've past the point where we can say that Hamels is simply having a bad start to the season and will get it together, and are now into the "Something's up" phase. I don't know if he's hurt or just struggling with command for another reason. If he weren't a better pitcher, he'd been routinely giving up more runs. So I give him props for limiting damage while he's clearly frustrated and struggling. But I'm now concerned about him.

71 pitches so far

Hamels leads the NL in Walks.

That contract looks fantastic.

On Zambrano:


From 2002-2010 he posted these peripherals:

BB%: 10.7, K%: 20.2, H/9 7.6

In 2011-2012 he posted(and 2012 wars the worst of the two seasons):

BB%: 10.7, K%: 16.0, H/9 9.8


Draw your own conclusions.

Shocking.

Brutal. Brutal. Brutal.

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