Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Halladay, Phillies rocked by Indians' HR party | Main | Laynce Nix, not Delmon Young, starts in RF »

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Comments

I still counter "what is he waiting for?" argument with "what is he so eager for?".

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, May 01, 2013 at 12:51 PM

Batters should try to avoid falling behind in the count whenever possible. If he's seeing first pitch hittable strikes, he's swinging at them because he's eager to not fall behind in the count.

It's pretty clear that Revere doesn't trust himself when he gets deeper into counts and he knows that his one big skill set is contact so he tries to make it at any means necessary and you get what you see...weak groundballs.

Seidman: "He's not even a 4.50 ERA pitcher anymore. He's a guy who might one-hit an opponent or lose a game in the first inning."

If this is truly how you feel Doc will pitch this season, and since the probability of one hitting a team vs losing the game right away is about a 1:3 ratio right now, then Doc will be a below replacement level player.

"If this is truly how you feel Doc will pitch this season, and since the probability of one hitting a team vs losing the game right away is about a 1:3 ratio right now, then Doc will be a below replacement level player."

Problem is, the Phillies' replacement options are below below-replacement level.

Dillon Gee currently getting lit up in the 1st inning by the ultra anemic Marlins offense.

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again - Holy Crap do the Mets suck.

"Batters should try to avoid falling behind in the count whenever possible."

Counter: Batters should attempt to get ahead of the count as much as possible.

I think both of our two strategies can both apply - I just look at Revere's career numbers and believe there's more improvement to be made in being more selective than there is to being more aggressive.

When the pitch Halladay has almost no chance of locating is the Cutter, & when that's the pitch he suddenly reverts to throwing 39% of the time (from 24%), it's absolutely pitch selection that was the biggest problem.

Is it possible that Revere is being coached by the staff to take the first pitch? Seems to be the approach most of the lineup takes.

lore: Getting ahead in the count is a means to an end. The end is to get a good pitch to hit. If you get that hittable pitch on the first pitch, you don't need to get ahead in the count.

lore: Getting ahead in the count is a means to an end. The end is to get a good pitch to hit. If you get that hittable pitch on the first pitch, you don't need to get ahead in the count.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, May 01, 2013 at 01:04 PM

Bingo.

I don't know from semantics, but the narrative about "pitch selection" is inclusive of the command issue. The point being made is that when pitch like the cutter is called, he feels he needs to overthrow it to make up for lost velocity and then command suffers. You can disagree as to how much each of these factors contribues to getting hit hard, but they are intertwined so much that it's impossible to say "It's not pitch selection, it's command!"

The optimists among us hope that with more refined pitch selection evolves as Doc figures out his current realities, the command issue will improve.

@Steve...I don't even know if this team has a set philosophy on hitting. The only thing I can tell about the overall approach is that getting on base is not the prime motive.

Maybe the cutter didn't cut?

Disagree again. Being aggressive turns your ordinary "hittable" pitch into a must-swing. Revere has shown so far that he needs a very hittable pitch to make good enough contact. I say be more selective and find that "very hittable" pitch.

If he never gets it? Oh well, he's going to hit a freakin groundball just like he would have the first hittable pitch.

and yes, if the first pitch is a very hittable pitch, of course swing. Just like you guys aren't suggesting he swings at balls just because it may be hittable.

"I think Ruben would be more willing to turn the page on Revere if Worley continues to stink the joint up too."

This was posted in the last thread but I thought it needed to be re-posted here. For those that don't think I have a sense of humor, I found this statement to be hilarious.

Mick O hit the nail on the head with Halladay. The issues are intertwined. His cutter is now an ineffective pitch, so when Ruiz calls for it over and over again, there's a good chance it cuts right over the heart of the plate. Which is what happened last night.

The team philosophy on hitting is based on David Hume's work, I believe. The team just isn't sure that hitting the ball with the bat actually causes the ball to move. Just not enough experience with the phenomenon on this team to have a priori knowledge.


"For the effect is totally different from the cause, and consequently can never be discovered in it. Motion in the second Billiard(base)-ball is a quite distinct event from motion in the first (bat); nor is there any thing in the one to suggest the smallest hint of the other."

jbird, that philosophy translates to the bullpen, as well.

If the bat is unlikely to move the ball when struck, might as well throw right down the heart of the plate.

I tend to believe the Phillies' approach to hitting is based on Sisyphus.

I wonder how much more we would have had to throw into the trade with Minnesota to get Span & Willingham instead of just Revere.

GTown: I dunno, there's definitely some level of (Cretan) bull going on with this team at times.

Or perhaps the Augean stables?

lore-- I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying that, since he's going to groundout anyway, no matter what, that it's better for Revere to make the pitcher throw 3+ pitches instead of just 1?

In exchange for Revere, Minnesota received a SP who is 0-4, w/ a 7.22 ERA & a 1.919 WHIP. As b_a_p suggested last evening, it's increasingly apparent that they were overcompensated by a considerable margin.

On Revere:

Good post by bap on the last thread.

If I read b-r.com correctly, Revere is 3 for 8 on the first pitch of an AB (10 PA), .375 .375 .625.


Here's where I need clarification:

b-r indicates that on an 0-1 count, Revere is 3 for 12.

It also indicates that "After 0-1" he was 9 for 51 (53 PA) .176 .208 .176.


So, how many 0-1 count has Revere had? 53 or 12?

buster, I go with the Cretan bull.

Confused: I believe that's indicating that he's had 12 ABs that were resolved on the second pitch of the PA (immediately following a first-pitch strike/foul). He's had 53 that started at 0-1, but continued for at least 2 more pitches.

So overall, I think he has 65 ABs that started 0-1.

awh/confused: He has had 53. On 12 of those, he put the ball in play. Plus he had 2 sac bunts.

confused-- I believe it means, the 12 ABs are what he did on the specific pitch thrown when the count was 0-1.

"After 0-1" is any AB which started 0-1, but continued past the next pitch.

At least that's my understanding.

DOES THAT CLEAR IT UP????

Philli: I believe those 12 are a sub-set of the 53. After all, the stat says "after 0-1 count," and a ball in play on an 0-1 count is "after an 0-1 count." So, as I understand the stat, he has had 53 PAs which started 0-1.

buster-- I think the 3-12 is included in the 9-51

Looking at game last night, you have to wonder if the team needs to read Emmanuel Levinas and make sure the other teams can see their downtrodden faces to make an ethical plea for mercy.

GTown, not to keep beating a dead horse, but from the beginning I've always stated that Worley was a high price for Revere. :)


Joking aside, I think the difference is that while Worley has stunk so far this season, he could possibly turn it around and be a decent #3/4/5.

Revere, based on what we've seen so far this season, may have the upside of Dewayne Wise .228/.263/.385.

Wise has actually hit 31 HR in his career, and twice posted an OPS over .700. Revere looks like he's a speedier version of Wise without the power but more SB.

This tidbit on Revere from CBS

in 108 April at-bats, Revere has a career .213 average and .248 OBP. He may just be a slow starter.

BAP/Cyclic: You're likely correct. If you were to take each of those conditional pitch-count results as independent, he'd have 9 RBI, but he only has 4.

Start working at home with Google! It's by-far the best job Ive had. Last Tuesday I bought a gorgeous Lancia Straton from earning $4331 this - 5 weeks past. I began this 7-months ago and right away started to earn at least $69, per-hr. I use this website,, http://Mojo50.com

I guess I just can't understand how you can watch Revere this year and think he ought to be more selective on strikes. The guy sees a bunch of hittable strikes, and he should swing at as many hittable strikes as possible. But he doesn't, consistently falls behind, and for a guy without power, hitting a ball or a good offspeed pitch that was a strike is not going to result in anything but weak contact.

JBird: Citing his career stats as evidence that he's usually a slow starter, when 90 of his 108 career April ABs have come this season, is one of the grossest misuse of statistics I have ever seen. CBS ought to be quite embarrassed to post that kind of garbage.

"This tidbit on Revere from CBS

in 108 April at-bats, Revere has a career .213 average and .248 OBP. He may just be a slow starter."


jbird, great. And Charlie was batting him leadoff.

Actually, in MiLB, in 89 PA in 2011 Revere did this: .280/.322/.305

In 31 PA in 2012 at Rochester he did this: .226/.226/.226


(Minor League Central doesn't go back beyond 2011.)

cyclic: I'm not saying he will ground out, i'm saying he will almost always(~70%) produce a groundball when making contact. He just batted .294 last year doing that.

I guess i could be wrong if revere hits a LD% a ton more on first pitches then he does 2 strikes - but from what I've seen this year, its doubtful.

awh: so Worley could turn it around but not Revere. Look as I've said in the past- Revere is not this bad a player. And there are others on here that have seen him and recognize he isn't. He will get himself turned around. The numbers by jbird may absolutely indicate that he is a slow starter on top of it.

jbird: All but 18 of those ABs came in April '13.

"in 108 April at-bats, Revere has a career .213 average and .248 OBP. He may just be a slow starter."

ummm... 90 of those came in 2013 and 18 came in 2012.

Halladay didn't have command of any of his pitches last night. And, no, pitch selection and command are not intertwined.

You can have command and still have poor pitch selection. You can also have great pitch selection and poor command.

Halladay's command last night was bad on all his pitches, so pitch selection had nothing to do with his failure.

Revere was a .340/.369/.425 hitter in his first 108 AB of 2012.

hey, I didn't come up with stat, I'm just reporting it.

I blame Ruiz for Doc throwing poorly last night. Bring back Humberto.

Humberto McCarver

The past April statistics weren't significant enough to indicate that we should have expected a slow start.

However, that doesn't mean he isn't just a slow starter, and that he'll pick this up dramatically as the weather gets warmer (or some other intangible event gets his engine running on all cylinders instead of just the... Uh... Instead of being out of fuel?).

Given his pretty-short career, I think we can give him at least a year before we declare him a bust as a player, even if we can probably declare this year a bust before that point.

Based on what I've seen of Jean Segura this season, we can pencil him in for the HOF.

I'll bet my Lancia Straton that Revere finishes the season with a BA above .280.

That said, I agree that he either needs to up his walks or lower his strikeouts. The good punch & judy hitters have a BB/K ratio of 1:1

I hope Durbin reads the board because he will need a job soon and working from home for google sounds like it could be a good fit for him.

Pitch selection & command are intertwined to the extent that selecting the pitch Halladay no longer has any ability to command, & doing so almost 40% of the time, is an almost certain path to disaster.

So clout,

What your saying is there are zero instances where a pitcher is struggling with command of his pitches, which then forces said pitcher to heavily rely on a certain type of pitch that they can rely on getting over the plate?

Either clout meant Lancia Stratos, or he's attempting to hornswoggle us.

Dear Beerleaguer Elite,

I agree with clout a lot.

Should I be worried?

Sincerely,

Cyclic

Five: No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

Re-read my post.

GTown: Did you not see Jennifer's post above?

I will wager one Lamborghini Testarossa that Ben Revere will not be traded for middle relief pitching in May.

The argument about whether Revere should swing at the first pitch or be more selective cracks me up, because it gives me a cartoonish picture of Joyner and Henderson having a similar argument, with Revere's head swiveling side to side trying to follow the argument.

* * * *
Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 2m
The National League batted .247/.313/.391 during the month of April.


clout: Ah-ha. Missed it. I must say, I'm disappointed that Kristen/Kate/Jennifer aren't more adept at using Google's search engine, seeing as how they're getting rich working for the company & all.

GBrettfan: The Phillies managed to hit below NL Avg. in two of those three categories. It shouldn't be difficult to figure out which two. Hint: their OPS+ is ranked 14th in the NL.

I've seen clout's "lancia straton" and it's pretty legit too...

clout car, bro

What was the NL average for Production?

Halladay didn't have command of any of his pitches last night. And, no, pitch selection and command are not intertwined.

You can have command and still have poor pitch selection. You can also have great pitch selection and poor command.

Halladay's command last night was bad on all his pitches, so pitch selection had nothing to do with his failure.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 01, 2013 at 02:08 PM

I'm not insinuating that I disagree with your assertion that Halladay's struggles last night were about command - they absolutely had much more to do with command. However, you said at the top that the 2 are not intertwined.

To say that a pitcher struggled in an appearance was either A) command or B) pitch selection is far oversimplifying the art of pitching. There are plenty of pitchers who have had poor outings because they had outings where their stuff was just OK and maybe struggled somewhat because they were uncomfortable trusting pitches that they just didn't have a good feel for. In that scenario, I would not say you could pinpoint either or.

So maybe what I'm saying is this:

SCENARIOS REGARDING POOR OUTINGS
A) Command is poor
B) Pitch selection is poor
C) Command and pitch selection poor - in this scenario really, command is obviously the larger issue
D) Command is not necessarily poor, however a struggle with command leads to some poor decisions regarding pitch selection

Obviously there are more factors that can be added in (ie floating strike zone, BABIP luck, etc) but I went simple for demonstrations sake.

GTown - I am not surprised; I figured that the Phillies skewed those NL numbers downward.

I am, however, disgusted and/or disappointed and/or sadly accepting and/or nostalgic for the good ol' days, by turns.

* * *

Who did we keep instead of Betancourt again? Was it Carrera? Can't believe Yuni has 7 HRs. Chase leads our team with 5.

I mentioned Betancourt in a thread yesterday. It's hilarious.

yeah, Betancourt with homeruns in back to back to back games. That's Production! I would say Galvis should have started the year in AAA, but then who would have started in left field during the team's current run of excellence?

I am sure Yuni will eventually regress to the Yuni off old.

Lots of BL posters were adamant against Yuni being kept, referring him to him as the worst everyday player in the game. So he has to regress, so say the BL wizards.

Jack/jbird:

Production™

Galvis has 2 HR, which is the same as Mayberry, Nix & Kratz, & 1 more than M. Young & Rollins.

Smart money running towards Indians today. Phils down to -135 in most places, from in the -150/155 range earlier. Cliff Lee's last two starts haven't been stellar (21 runners in 12 IP) and coming off his 122 pitch outing vs PIT.

The last time Lee threw 122 pitches, was June 5 2012, where he went on to get shelled the next 4 starts.

caveat - he threw +120 a few more times in 2011 and dominated during/after each of them.

If Lee turns in a couple below average starts this month, I have a bad feeling May 2013 will mirror June 2012.

I'd rather June 2011.

Well now that I know which way the money is running.....

Charlie is stupid. Tbag is stupid. RAJ needs to go.

clout: "We don't know if that was a good plan or not because it wasn't executed. His pitches were either way inside and called balls. Or they were right down the middle and called home runs. If he had any command last night, his plan might've worked."

True...we might have only lost 4-2 instead of 14-2.

Glad you got that out of your system early, Joe.

"awh: so Worley could turn it around but not Revere."


TTI, yes, that IS within the realm of possibility.

Let me ask you this: What, in Revere's MLB track record, leads you to believe that his 2012 season will be the "norm" for him?

I compared him to DeWayne Wise, only because their career OPS numbers were <.650.

Lifetime, Wise has done this - .228/.263/.385/.648 - in 1144 PA.

Revere has done this - .272/.312/.314/.627 - in 1160 PA.

As I mentioned above, Wise has more power, and Revere looks to be a better hitter for average. Neither one walks very much - Revere is a better base stealer.

Sure, Revere could improve. It's also possible that 2012 was a career year for him.

We'll find out.

Kind of like how 2011 was a career year for Worley.

Hey, Charlie did something right! D. Young is the DH again tonight! No RF in an AL park!

lorecore, exactly!

Rollins (SS), M. Young (3B), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), D. Young (DH), Brown (LF), Ruiz (C), Nix (RF), Revere (CF).

Hey, Charlie did something right! D. Young is the DH again tonight! No RF in an AL park!

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 01, 2013 at 03:21 PM

The way I read this, GTown, it's like someone literally had to bulldoze and remove RF so that Charlie wouldn't put DYoung in the outfield.

Coincidentally, I was assuming that's what would have to be done for Manuel not to play DYoung out there tonight.

I'd still rather have Mayberry playing 1B with Howard DH'ing, and DYoung on the interstate picking up trash.

I think Revere will bounce back, he can't possibly be this bad and have made it to the bigs in the 1st place. However, if he doesn't, what are the chances we get a Mayberry/Nix platoon in CF? Both have played there in their careers. It's a dropoff in D, but would the extra O make it palatable?

Fatalotti: How sad is it that I'm genuinely thrilled Charlie made such an obviously correct decision? It happens so rarely ...

I wasn't able to comment last night, but I did see the Delmon Young HR. That ranks up there with one of the all-time 'moments made special by beerleaguer'.

Possibly my favorite was a few years ago, when I would jump and point anytime a ball was lined/bounced over the 3B.

I think Revere will bounce back, he can't possibly be this bad and have made it to the bigs in the 1st place.

Michael Martinez.

There are no platoons please stop refering to them!

GTown, it's sad that Charlie Manuel even considers playing DYoung in RF in an AL park in the first place.

It's scary when that guy has his finger on the button.

GTown: Martinez was better!

Revere 2012 OPS: .456
MiniMart 2011 OPS: .461

TTI, when I run this minor league equivalency calculator

http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc

and I use Revere's numbers from his AA season at New Britain - .305/.371/.363 - the number gets translated to - .255/.308/.297 - in Philadelphia.

When I combine his 252 AAA PA from Rochester in 2011 and 2012, I get this - .280/.306/.295 - in MLB.

Does that unequivocally mean that Revere will not do better than what the MiL translator indicates?

Absolutely not.

But it doesn't mean he will do better either.

Fatalotti: Someone should do a remake of the "Land of Confusion" video, w/ Spitting Image-style Charlie & r00b puppets.

jbird: My mind just touched the void.

GTown, LOL!

clout- when a catcher consistently selects a pitch that a pitcher can't command (and hasn't all season), how could pitch selection not be an issue?

I do agree that he didn't have much of anything working for him last night, but he hasn't commanded his cutter all year- and Chooch called it like three times more than Quintero was calling it during Doc's successful outings.

I don't think most people here are serious about some of the dumb things being said about Revere. But when GTown compares him to Michael Martinez, I think he's so simple that he actually believes it.

A co-worker of mine always tells me what WIP callers are talking about when he comes in in the morning. Today he said "They are just KILLING Revere on the radio!" That pretty much explains a lot of what we're seeing here.

He was not this bad in Minnesota and he's not this bad of a player. He's 24. He is and will get better than what we're seeing.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG