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Saturday, May 11, 2013

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That was quick

Okay. We're still posting on the last thread. Not fair.

I'm waiting for the inevitable Corey Seidman thread within the next 2-3 minutes. Its always fun when there are multiple BL authors prepping post-game articles.

Good game despite the offense doing everything it possibly could to lose it.

McCarthy has apparently been victim to horrible BABIP luck so far this season. The Phils should be able to lower that average down a bit tomorrow night...

Bastardo has had three straight crap outings. It's getting whittled down to the point where they're paying $20 million+ for a bullpen with one guy in it that's worth a damn.

Cliff Lee = team leader

Iceman, imagine where we'd be if we had given Madson that 4/44 that was rumored...

~shudders~

If the SP can go 7 IP & surrender 0 R, & Papelbon can record at least 5 outs, the Phillies might win a few. It's a simple formula for success.

Easy peasy.

Oh, and the offense has to eke out a few runs.

Ryan Howard is the bane of my existence.

GTown, there's a very easy way to make it possible:

Step 1: Build Time Machine
Step 2: Travel to 1977
Step 3: Kidnap Goose Gossage
Step 4: ???
Step 5: Profit!

A win is a win, so I'll take it.

But they better stop leaving so many guys on base.

And I agree with Murrrrgh:

Free Ruf.

can he be worse than No-D?

Tip of the cap to Revere tonight. He ran the bases very well (especially on his 2nd steal with Collmenter pitching) and played solid defense with a couple of nice grabs tonight.

It would be nice if Cholly would put Revere in the 9th spot and bat JRoll leadoff. Too bad Cholly's head would either explode like in 'Scanners' or he would give you this befuddled old man look like you are talking crazy malarkey.

NEPP- some guy using my username made a lot of posts saying he wanted Madson instead of Papelbon at the time. What a moron.

Larry Bowa thinks the Nats should put Harper at 3B and Zimmerman in LF.

I cant believe he never succeeded as a manager.


Its the weirdest thing, Iceman. That was right around the same time that my username was hacked and was used to make the same pro-Madson comments.

Weird.

Papelbon struggled tonight getting behind hitters pretty regularly and not having much location or life on his fastball.

I thought for sure that he was going to give it up after the Chavez double.

If they win tomorrow it's a 4-3 road trip. If you'd have told me before they'd go 4-3 on the west coast I'd have said that would portend good things for the team, and yet they could win 15-0 tomorrow and I still wouldn't feel that way.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_05_10_milmlb_cinmlb_1&mode=video

Anyone else catch this ridiculous DP by Brandon Phillips? Its ridiculous that he doesnt win the GG every single year.

.252/.289/.458 (95 wRC+)

No comment.

Joe Nathan since the Rangers signed him:

77 1/3 IP, 4-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 47 of 50 SV

Then again I thought League wasn't that bad of a signing in LA and he has really struggled & on the verge of losing the closer's job.

That Phillips DP was amazing. Thanks for sharing, NEPP.

Howard is basically Travis Hafner at this point except Hafner still BBs at a much higher clip.

Hafner is a part-time DH who is making $2M this year. Girardi sits him vs LHP for the most part and he has been very productive.

Mayberry is now hitting under .150 the last 3 weeks and has gone ice cold.

fatal-- I'm not on my computer right now. Who is it?

Lee/KK on the mound:

9-5 and I like their chances to go 10-5 tomorrow against McCarthy.

I'm guessing that's Howard's line.

Some fun career splits:

Ryan Howard:
PA vs RHP: 3205 (66.7%)
PA vs LHP: 1603 (33.3%)

Willie Stargell:
PA vs RHP: 6442 (72.4%)
PA vs LHP: 2452 (27.6%)

Willie McCovey:
PA vs RHP: 7344 (75.8%)
PA vs LHP: 2348 (24.2%)


Interesting to see the effects of bullpen specialization and an increase in LHP in general in baseball, eh?

"NEPP- some guy using my username made a lot of posts saying he wanted Madson instead of Papelbon at the time. What a moron."


Iceman, I was one who was in favor of Madson. I thought he'd be better than Papelbon going forward. I sure didn't see TJ surgery coming.

Ageless wonder:

15 1/3 IP, 0-0, 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 5.8 K/BB,

14 for 14 SV and half of those have been of the 1-run variety.

All of this at 43 after coming back from what some thought was a career-ending knee-injury.

If there was a guy who needed to get 3 outs in a pressured-filled game, Rivera is the guy I would turn to. Just ridiculous and the only closer who I ever thought deserved to be paid ridiculously.

One of the greatest baseball players of all-time.

Glad to see Lee get a win and not have yet another fine pitching effort wasted. Kudos to Lee and Papelbon. Unfortunately, one hallmark of a mediocre team is that every win is a struggle. Laughers are few and far between.

awh: I am in favor of FREE RUF as well.

But I'm not sure at this point it's Delmon Young I would want him to replace in the lineup...

Rivera will be 44 in Nov.

I foolishly bet on the Fish tonight (only bet what you know and closely follow is a tenet you should follow with stocks as well as professional sports).

Fish are now 11-26 and Astros 10-27. Leaves at Astros at a 118-loss pace and the Fish at 114-loss pace.

'62 Mets modern record (40-120) of futility is definitely in play this year.

McCarthy hasn't given up fewer than three runs or fewer than 8 hits in an outing. He also hasn't made it 7 innings in any start and is winless.

Where can I lay money on all of those streaks coming to an end with tomorrow's start?

I wish I had the time to calculate it but I wonder if you simply bet against the Astros and Fish all season long ($10 each game) where you would be at right now.

Payouts most night would be terrible but you would be winning at ~72% clip right now which is unheard in MLB baseball.

So go J-Roll....You know the rest...

I feel I haven't posted in a while guys and possibly girls, but, fwiw, please never mention Alex Arias again. Heck, the only reason we remember Eric Bruntlett is b/c we see his face when it rains....literally.

Unassisted triple play.

Also: Better than Minimart (possibly not based on verifiable evidence).

In re: Phillips DP

I bet Former All-Star Joe Morgan would have done it better. How can you get a Gold Glove if you don't even use your glove? Former All-Star Joe Morgan would have used a glove and everything.

MG - The Fish won't lose 120 games. They have a bunch against the Mets and, um, the Phils.

It's dumb when Albert Ross pops up to say things about Howard when he does something good and it's also dumb to just snipe at Howard when he does something bad. Why can't people view the whole picture instead of being snarky all the time?

Something interesting on Papelbon. Some criticize how Charlie uses him and doesn't go for more than 1 inning saves. In his career, Papelbon now has 7 saves of 5 or more outs. 3 of those have come with the Phillies. So basically almost as many in 84 games with the Phillies as in 463 games as the Red Sox closer.

That DP by Brandon Phillips is amazing! Wow! Thanks for sharing the link, NEPP.

Was his season line not "whole picture" enough for you?

I'm with you on the Fatalotti. Plus, what would Beerleaguer be without snarky comments? It's part of the ethos or whatever. lol

I thought what Manuel did last night was necessary but laughable. He didn't do it because he was desperate for a win- he did it because there are literally no other reliable arms in the bullpen right now. Bastardo was overused (and has been bad on top of that) and Adams has serious issues with LHB right now. Who's he going to bring in? Aumont? Durbin?

I guess I keep harping on the bullpen because a lot of this offensive decline was bound to happen with the core aging- most of the guys flailing have been here all along. It was inevitable. But the bullpen is something that can be overhauled from year to year. Amaro has overseen the complete decimation of a bullpen that he's paying more than $20 million for 2.5 reliable arms. It's the biggest failure of his tenure here and a complete embarrassment to the franchise.

Fatalotti: A week ago his season slash was: ..280/.310/.505.

After the second game in the Giants series it was: .282/.320/.513

And yet you didn't see fit to post that with the "too cool" response of "No comment."

Why not? Wouldn't have fit your narrative? As I said- it is silly when Albert Ross does stuff like that and it is silly what you did. At least be fair about things.

Iceman: I'm willing to grant that the bullpen is a bigger issue than I thought it would be, and I would agree that it's laughable how much money we're spending on terrible performance. Just another example of Amaro's incompetence.

But I think the main point is that even if the Phillies had a good bullpen, they wouldn't be a good team. A good offense/rotation can overcome a bad bullpen. The converse is not true.

I think the fact that Howard's OBP was at .320 at the "high point" of his season that's being used as evidence in favor of how good he is kind of says it all.

He got his OBP ALL THE WAY up to .320??

Give that man another $20 M!!

You actually made my point even better for me, TTI. The guy went on a monster tear, and only got his OBP up to .320 and OPS up to .833.

And since it was inevitable he would slump again, and since his only value comes from offense, yeah, my point still stands. He's a huge part of the problem with this team, if not the biggest.

Jack, good points.

The bullpen has been hurt by injuries - the injuries to Halladay and Lannan.

Those two were expected to average 13 IP in their starts (combined), Halladay didn't average his 7 IP and Lannan got hurt. Also, the replacements have not lasted that long into games.

Thus, middle relief has been exposed more than the team would have liked (or planned).

Also,

HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY to all the Moms who surf and post here!

Any team that plans on none of its starters being hurt or ineffective is a dumb team.

Fata -- Are you still a student? How the !@#$ do you make the time to do all the Saber research?

I'm a full-time employee and a full-time dad and truly blessed to be so. However, when you factor in continuing education; fitness (not yet a consistent part of the program) and yard work, I have -0- time to research any facts not available by glancing on Baseball Reference.

Enough of my whining. Thanks for the summary of the status of "Little Chip" (fka "Big Piece"). Do you think that it would kill the Phillies to start benching him until he learns to work the count and take a walk? His extended 0fers kill us (thanks, Larry Bowa!) as he hardly brings a speck of any other baseball skills to the table.

Four more years of dead money. Uggghhhh.....

Fata: And you again go for the cloutian strawman which is of course something you would chastise clout if he were to do. Nice job by you.

I said nothing about being excited about or even crowing over the numbers Howard posted. Your post in this thread though was essentially chirping to say, "Look, I told you guys about Howard- here are his numbers no comment."

And it raises the simple fact that you didn't see fit to post that when he was at his high point a week, or even 5 days ago. So again- why not? If your argument is "made stronger" by me pointing out your bias then by all means continue at it. But you and Albert Ross are different ends of the silly argument spectrum of this so save the indignation when he posts something the next time Howard hits a home run. He is just taking a page from your book.

"And it raises the simple fact that you didn't see fit to post that when he was at his high point a week, or even 5 days ago. So again- why not?"

You can't win on Beerleaguer. If you post about how much Howard sucks, but don't expressly backtrack when he goes on a hot streak, then posters will accuse you of gloating when Howard does poorly. If you post about how much Howard sucks, and you do expressly backtrack when he goes on a hot streak, then posters will accuse you of having a short attention span.

Howard is one of his funks right now but he was brutal last night. Literally had no plan at the plate & anything on the inner half of the plate he was going to flail wildly in vain.

Overall this year, it has been disappointing so far offensively. His % BB is at a career low so far, his power hasn't returned to even what it was in '10-'11, and he has been helpless against LHP. Hell he is striking basically half of the time vs LHP (48%). That's absurd even by his own career numbers.

Howard is a LH bat who should be a part-time DH in the AL and be paid accordingly. If he was a FA at the end of the year, he would likely get a 1-year deal from an AL that I bet would be in the $5-8M range depending upon where his HR/power numbers end up

Cliff Lee is a streak stopper. The Giants had won 6 straight when he beat them last week and I think Arizona had won 7 straight before Lee shut them down last night. Also both wins ended Phillies losing streaks. Now I know why you all on here say Cliff Lee is a streaky pitcher!

It's easy to say what Howard should be paid now after he blew his achilles out.

TTI, my post was meant to express consternation at the fact that our cleanup hitter, one who is ostensibly being paid $20 M this year to do nothing but hit, has an awful slash line, and relative to the league, is 5% below average. No chirping, just pointing out that we have a sh!tty offense, and he is the main culprit, relative to reasonable expectations, of the offense's woes.

I'm continually confounded by posters like you on this site who get enraged by fans of the team being upset by the consistent under performing of the players on their favorite team. I don't really give two sh!ts about proving I was right when it came to predicting how Howard would perform this year. A moron could have predicted the decline of Howard, especially this season. I have no interest in proving I'm as smart as a moron.

But when I'm watching a team that is consistently unable to score enough runs to win games, and I'm constantly watching the offensive player who's being paid the most, and whose only value is extracted solely through his offense, literally suck out loud, then yes, I'm going to point out how upset that makes me.

If you don't like it, stop reading my posts.

cut, employed full time, but no kids. Also, my "research" is no where near robust or rigorous as some on this site, and pretty any one firmly entrenched in the maintaining and reporting of the sabermetric opinion.

They're the true heroes here.

Also TTI, if your point in posting his slash line last week wasn't to say, "hey, it was good last week", what was your point? To remark that his slash line was different last week? Because that's beyond trivial.

johnnysanz3 - That's a fair point.

Cliff Lee has been very good too. He has had 2 starts where his command hasn't been at 'Fult Tilt' but he has given them 6 QS in 8 GS & most importantly averaging over 7 IP/GS (7.1).

We've have become so accustomed to very good pitching the last few years we have forget the years when we pined for a starter like Lee & the 'staff ace' was Myers or Lieber.

Howard, Brown, M. Young, Rollins, Utley, Revere.

These, in descending order, are the Phillies leaders in P/PA. So at least Howard is making the opposing pitcher work in advance of the inevitable K?

"A moron could have predicted the decline of Howard, especially this season. I have no interest in proving I'm as smart as a moron."

Oh come now. If you expect to remain a member in good standing of the Moronocracy, then you have a very strong interest in proving that you're as smart as a moron.

"I have no interest in proving I'm as smart as a moron."


Ooooh, Fatti. Be careful what you post. You leave yourself open when you post stuff like that above.

"It's easy to say what Howard should be paid now after he blew his achilles out.

Posted by: johnnysanz3 | Sunday, May 12, 2013 at 12:39 PM"


johnny, excellent point. The "hindsighters" always have 20-20 vision.

I could do it for these guys too:

"It's easy to say what Madson should be paid now after he blew his UCL out."

""It's easy to say what Halladay should be paid now after he blew his shoulder out."

""It's easy to say what Hanrahan should be paid now after he blew his UCL out."

""It's easy to say what Wilson should be paid now after he blew his UCL out."

"It's easy to say what Motte should be paid now after he blew his UCL out.

Please fill in the blanks:

""It's easy to say what ________ should be paid now after he blew his _________ out."

awh, open to what? Anonymous people writing scathing posts about me? You get that on here no matter what you post. Who cares?

Also, most people slammed the Howard contract the day it was inked, not after the achilles injury.

"He is just taking a page from your book. "

Precisely.

Revere (CF), Rollins (SS), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), D. Young (RF), Brown (LF), Galvis (3B), Kratz (C), Kendrick (P).


Hey, Ben's finally starting to hit some! I know, let's try & f*ck w/ it by moving him back to leadoff!

No excuses for my start to the year, but which one of these players is "...the main culprit, relative to reasonable expectations, of the offense's woes. "

.270 .329 .489 .818
.244 .297 .417 .714
.179 .238 .205 .443
.252 .289 .458 .747
.243 .293 .270 .562
.250 .299 .382 .681

Five days ago, when my numbers were virtually identical to Chase's, it was explained that the reason why I'm worthless is because of elements of my game other than my offense. Now I'm the "main culprit...of the offense's woes."

I LOVE BEERLEAGUER!

Howard has stunk recently, but he's not the only culprit.

Charlie is also partly responsible, especially for not properly utilizing his platoon players.

But the players themselves have stunk as well.

During Howard's decent in the month of May - .167 .268 .444 with 3 HR and 4 RBI in 41 PA - other players have contributes to the general suckitude of the offense.

Since April 30th:

Mayberry: .150 .190 .150, no HR no RBI in 21 PA.

Brown: .268 .268 .512, 3 HR 6 RBI but NO WALKS in 41 PA.

MYoung: .216 .326 .324, 0 HR, 3 RBI in 43 PA

No-D: .154 .250 .231, 0 HR, 2 RBI in 32 PA

J-Popup: .225 .267 .350, 1 HR 5 RBI in 45 PA

Chooch: .194 .265 .194, 0 HR O RBI in 34 PA

St. Utley: .205 .304 .385, 2 HR, 5 RBI in 46 PA


Only 1 player, ONE (1), has done anything offensively to wrote home about:

Revere: .400 .483 .440, 1R, 0 HR 1 RBI in 30 PA


So, Fatti and company can point out Howard as the "littlest chip" in the offense, but he ain't alone.

For the most part the entire starting lineup has stunk up every ballpark in which they've played since the beginning of the month.

If it's true that "misery loves company", then Ryan Howard has many comrades since May Day.

Oops, above it should say"

"During Howard's descent in the month of May..."

Typo: Revere has scored 4 R in May.

I have to share a Mother's Day memory just to remember how great it was to be a fan in 1993. I took my mom to the Vet on Morhers Day because she was a great fan of the Phillies since 1926. She had picture books full of old clippings, we always had the game on in the parlor all the years, it just felt like home. Anyway mom was 87 and she had a hard time getting into the park but once we rolled her to her seat, the usher shared some old memories with her as I went to get us a few hot dogs. The players were taking BP and my mom was just on cloud nine.
Ten minutes later, she had to visit the ladies room. A female usher pushed her there and I waited outside for her. After a half hour I asked a woman to look inside for her. She wasn't there. I searched everywhere.
I finally caught up with her being "tag teamed" by Nails and Dutch. I was so happy. What a treat!

If this article is true, I wonder if/when they will deem Ruf ready and trade or release No-D?


http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/pharm-ruf-adjusting-life-triple


If Ruf continues to hit, how can they keep him down there with the way this team is struggling?

they could move Brown back to RF, and play Ruf at 1B against tough LHSP with RFD subbing in the OF.

But, this is the Phillies, and that's too easy a decision.

You know i never checked the Hitting Gurus MLB hitting #'s to yday. His hefty .198 BA and all.

If the Phils are even close to been in contention i bet Hernandez wont sniff the Majors this year.

I hope your mom didnt take a check from Lenny.

awh, you must have missed when I pointed out all the stats about how the entire offense is completely miserable, and how they aren't good at literally anything.

I'm well aware that Howard isn't the "only" culprit, but he's supposed to be trotting a 150 wRC+ out there, not a 95.

And since I did say "reasonable expectations", and not those based upon salary, I'll amend that to a 130 wRC+, as opposed to a 150.

I'm continually confounded by posters like you on this site who get enraged by fans of the team being upset by the consistent under performing of the players on their favorite team.

___________________________________________

Another healthy strawman Fatalotti.

And as to your 1:08 post my point is that you are only pulling data that proves your point. I'd have far more respect for your position had you posted it last week or earlier in this week when it was better BUT still much lower than you would want. Doing what you did is just waiting for an opportune time to post your opinion which we all understand from years of you posting on here. Yes he is bad, but to do what you did is being intellectually dishonest in presenting your opinions.

Also, again- it amazes me how defensive you are getting in this- almost as if you know you are being a dink and are trying to defend it. Especially considering I said BOTH you AND Albert Ross were being dinks when you do that kind of stuff. And I know you recognize that because you post about it everytime Albert Ross does it. You can be selective about how those boundaries lie because you are in it, but an objective observer sees that both of you are being stupid.

FREE RUF

Ed: Thanks for the story. Glad your Mom had a great day, in a great season.

So, because I didn't scream "Howard sucks" from the rooftops in the middle of his hot streak, I'm being intellectually dishonest?

Give it a rest, TTI.

As to today's game, Revere being back in the leadoff spot is just another in a long line of really puzzling decisions by our esteemed manager.

New thread.

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