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Wednesday, May 22, 2013

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Dont worry, Mini Mart isn't coming back or batting 3rd (I tried to make it pretty obvious with that part of the joke)


I think I fell for a joke post at the end of the last thread.

I'm just glad it was a joke.

I could see them winning all three of these games or getting swept. Should be fun. The Nats' offense has been just as putrid as ours.

NEPP - That wasn't funny man.

Wow. I didn't realize Zimmerman has been that good so far.

Sounds like since there DL'ing Utley they'd save on travel and FREE RUF and Stutes.

WTF the Phils are recalling a guy hitting...

It was a joke. He isn't even on the 40-man.

It would have been more believable if you had put a roster move in the tweet as well, since Mini-Mart isn't on the 40-man.

When was the last time the Phils had 27 hits in three games much less two?

I really think the Phils broadcasts are punking us with their dismissal of good OBP players during the games and their crazy conclusions based on small sample sizes on the postgm show.

Bret Boone on D. Young on Baseball Tonight:

'They need D. Young and they signed him to be a force in the middle of the lineup"

Yeah a guy at the very end of the offseason to essentially a veteran-league minimum base with some moderate incentive upside.

Maybe Boone is trying to get a job in the Phils FO.

EF- I wonder what the combined IQ, baseball or otherwise, of the broadcast team and post game hosts is?

Wheels and T-Mac wanting to take Lee out because Papelbon "needs work" was mind blowing.

They believe that not only do you need to insert the closer in an arbitrarily defined closer situation; but you yank a starter on the way to a complete game shut out to do so.

News flash: Papelbon works for the Phillies; the Phillies need to work for wins not Papelbon save stats.

You're all gonna feel preeeeeeeetty silly when the Phils take the next 2 handily

Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, May 20, 2013 at 09:52 PM

What is completely nutty here is the proclamation that "The playoffs are a crapshoot". OK, then.

In what appears to be the same breath, seemingly all fans on this site fervently pray for a shot at the bleepin' "2nd Wild Card".

Am I nuts, or is this the most atomic-powered disconnect I've ever viewed? Simply put, if "making the playoffs" via winning the division is a gamble, a 1-game playoff is a hopeless sham.

Earliest indications are that Mr. Harper of the Gnats is scuffling. God bless him if he has any manifestation of a serious concussion. No one wants that.

Regardless, the Phils need to win the division to have any shot at a 2nd World Series. Something that might go a long way towards that end is the upcoming series with the Gnats. How is it possible that we run out the following:

• Friday — Kyle Kendrick (4-2, 2.82) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (7-2, 1.62)
• Saturday — Jonathan Pettibone (3-0, 3.00) vs. Dan Haren (4-5, 5.54)
• Sunday — Cole Hamels (1-7, 4.45) vs. Stephen Strasburg (2-5, 2.66)

with a seemingly damaged Hamels against Stratsburg? Now’s a good time for Cole to figure it out, and the Phils ‘production people’ to start timing 99mph fastballs.

This may very well be a 68-win team. This holiday weekend will go a very long way towards determining if that’s the case; or if there’s 1 more miracle left inside Chollie’s bag of stumbles.

Stum-bles! Stum-bles! Stum-bles!

Sunday is a loss just like the rest of Cole Hamels' starts. It's not really even his fault anymore. For whatever reason they are leaving him out to dry and it's too late to salvage Cole's season. I would like to see him traded perhaps to Baltimore at the trade deadline. But it's not all bad news! They will win Friday and Saturday.

"As for tonight, it's all lined up for a Lee gem. Call it a gut feeling. This lineup is putrid and if Lee is on, I bet he has one of his classic CGSOs where the opposition barely puts up a fight.

2-0 Phils with another productive night from Dom (2-run bomb).

Posted by: Iceman | Wednesday, May 22, 2013 at 06:05 PM"


Iceman, what are the Powerball numbers for
Saturday?

"What is completely nutty here is the proclamation that "The playoffs are a crapshoot". OK, then.

In what appears to be the same breath, seemingly all fans on this site fervently pray for a shot at the bleepin' "2nd Wild Card".

Am I nuts, or is this the most atomic-powered disconnect I've ever viewed? Simply put, if "making the playoffs" via winning the division is a gamble, a 1-game playoff is a hopeless sham."

Mind = blown

awh- and Dom hit his double about 400 feet and just missed that two run bomb.

To the 68 win crowd, you realize that the Phillies would have to go 45-70 to get there?

Surely they're not that bad. They've made it this far at .500. 3/5 of the rotation looks pretty darn reliable, with whatever amount of time is left on Pettibones first time through the NL. Win even half of those games and you're still over the mark.

At least update your gloom to the current date on the calendar please.

I am just going to get going and there is still plenty of room to get on the Delmon Young bandwagon.

Iceman, I meed those Powerball numbers...

Iceman, I'm not sure where you lose the logic. The belief is that when you make the playoffs, all teams have an equal shot. The teams with 100 wins are presumed to have the same probability as the wildcards. It follows that we place value on getting that wildcard, because it's at least a lottery ticket.

Now I don't necessarily believe that backing into the playoffs is the best way to win it all, but when you get a spot in the tournament you have a chance.

OK, Iceman - Let Fatalotti intervene if the statistics are waaay in your favor. However, the odds of "winning" a 1-game contest appear grossly unfavorable when presented with the alternative presentation of winning a 5-game contest.

Whatever.

Kudos to NEPP for pulling that joke off at the end of last thread. He pretty much sent Beerleaguer into a collective state of apoplexy.

cut: What are the odds of winning the World Series as a Wild Card, as compared to the odds of winning the World Series without making the playoffs at all?

Well done, Mr. Lee! Now, take 2 of 3 from the Nats and things might get interesting.

Anybody want to buy into a Houston Astros snow cone franchise?

I'll be shocked if the phillies score more than 5 runs total while in Washington

BAP: Well cut is just going to ask you to find statistics that prove that. Good luck with that.

What happened in that cut post? Was that coherent to anyone?

I hope none of us are taking Lee for granted.

I also enjoy these kind of comments: "this next series will determine the Phils season." But you said that about the Marlins series and the series before that...

Cut, the longer the series the "truer" the outcome should be in baseball. They take 162 games to sort out the best teams from the worst and the gap is much less than in other sports. If a great team and a weak team are to play a series for the title, the stronger team would prefer a longer series (generally). It would provide more chances for a valid outcome. The lesser team would be better served in a winner takes all game. They still wouldn't be the favorite. That's how the baseball playoffs work. A five game series is much less fair to a stronger team than a seven. A one game playoff is even less fair to the stronger team. Think of all the times bad teams like the mets or marlins take one of three from a stronger team. Had that one been a one game playoff the powerhouse team is eliminated. That helps the Phillies as they are the weaker team this year if they make the playoffs.
Does that rambling explanation make any sense?

It is funny how many people fell for the Mini Mart thing. MG immediately launching into his same talking points on Mini Mart was great.

The guy isn't even on the 40 man roster. He ain't coming back.

Anyone that fell for that needs to get a twitter account.

It truly is a tribute to the lasting hatred that Mini Mart has inspired. He's the Freddy Krueger of Beerleaguer.

Mini-Mart's inspiring line thus far: .226 .297 .274

I'll go down to CBP and fire Rube myself if he is recalled.


gobaystars! - Your 07:56 AM post does make sense. However, it also contains the seeds of my discontent regarding the current wild card system.

It's hard to believe how many things Selig's done or condoned that I don't agree with. However, the 2nd wild card does accomplish the restoration of the importance of a Division Title.

If the Phillies can somehow:
• cobble together a reliable offense
• keep Messrs. Lee, Kendrick and Pettibone cooking on full boil all season
• find Cole Hamels a way to get his mojo back and catch the same amount of great luck as the bad luck required to engineer his 1-7 record
then I want the Phillies to enter the playoffs as Division champs. Not as “hangers on” needing to somehow win the 1-game elimination to move on.

Any sports championship hinging on a 1-game playoff is a sucker bet to me. If the Phillies can jump start their record, and honestly contend, I want that as Division Champs. It sure would be great to see the Braves and/or Gnats banished to a 1-game shootout while the Phils stand by and catch their breath.

There are many ongoing issues - most of them pug ugly - with the team. However, a series win against Washington this weekend may make me abandon my “68 win” prediction for good.

"the 2nd wild card does accomplish the restoration of the importance of a Division Title."

Agreed, we might not all agree that a 1 game wild card playoff is good or not, but rewarding a division winner by missing such a playoff is certain advantage that any/all teams will strive for.

while i do agree with that one statement, i just read and re-read cut's previous few posts in their entirety and apologize for not specifying that I disagree with every single word he typed outside the one quoted phrase.

Tyson Gillies will be the next mini-mart.
Like MM he is also one of Rubens boys who can't hit above 200 but keeps getting permitted.
He is hitting under 200 at LV so he should be promoted soon.

Mini-Mart's inspiring line thus far: .226 .297 .274

Fluff. How's his Production™?

If they take game 1 of this Nationals series I think they sweep. How's that for crazy talk? Zimmerman has been so good for the Nats so far and I think if they can touch him up their confidence level will rise. I also happen to believe that Hamels is going to throw an absolute gem on Sunday so any confidence rolled over from Friday should be enough to knock Haren around on Saturday. The Bone is still new and he should be able to give them another solid six.

Delmon Young is also HOF bound at this point.

I hope he spells better than me though-- Promoted was the word I was looking for

While I do like the power DOM has been showing, I'm getting a bit weary about his plate discipline.

He's yet to walk this month and has struck out 15 times since his last. I really hope he isn't a player who can only hit for power when he is overly aggressively, and can only raise his OBP by being overly patient.

Ted: Gillies was actually demoted from LV to Reading, where he is still playing like crap.

Dom is just trying to join the Production™ party.

Didn't Gillies get demoted to Reading?

Utley 25
Howard 25
Brown 24

Amaro loves those numbers.

Just don't post their OBPs. Even Utley's is pretty bad for him.

Lore: Agreed 100% on Dom. He could at least change things up a bit by switching between "Patient" and "Power" approach within the same game. Especially if the starter's particularly good, since the extra pitches will help everyone else in the lineup as well.

15 Ks over a 20-game period isn't terrible, so long as he doesn't keep that pace, though. Of course, I'd like his BA to be a bit higher than .248 for that stretch...

Dom is fine. He's had good walk numbers his whole career. Him hitting for power now is actually a good development. It wasn't expected. I'm feeling better about him than I was.

There may not be 10 runs scored between both teams in this whole series.

Well, depending on how many innings the bullpens pitch.

If DOM could hit 40 HR during his aggressive approach, then I probably wouldn't care, but he's probably 25-30 at best and thats just not going to be enough to simply scrap his ability to hit for a better avg/obp.

johnny: yea agreed, i welcome the power, just stating a concern to watch for going forward.

Yeah an under .300OBP is def not good going forward, as far as 40HR tho, we gotta remember that's pretty much the elite few now. (only one person over 40hr in NL last year).

2 good games took Delmon Young from

.192/.279/.308/.586
to
.233/.304/.450/.754

If TMac and Sarge are to be believed, he's "finding his stroke". I mean, according to them, he's also looked really good in batting practice. It was only a matter of time.

Maybe we judged him too soon.

Or, you know, the blind squirrel broken clock thing.

Not sure if it was mentioned, but Aumont was optioned and Stutes is the likely replacement.

The point is, he won't hit 40 HR.

Of all the things to complain about, Dom isn't one of them.

On the other hand, did you see his triple off the wall? If DOM had Delmon Young's elite power, that would have been a HR.

Cyclic - Neither of the above.

Young's career indicates he's capable of a few weeks of outstanding offense; but also very capable of failing miserably to sniff first base, much less an acorn by an oak tree.

I think it's okay to complain about anybody on the team with an OBP under .300

Cyclic: FWIW- traditionally- April/May have been D. Young's worst months as a hitter.

I could easily see DYoung hitting .233/.304/.450 this year, that's not that much of a fluke at all. It is however barely valuable from a poor fielding RF, and should be platooned at the very least.

I hadn't even noticed but the other Young has been horrible for the last couple weeks. (Though you gotta love the OBP with a BA that low)

.167/.327/.238/.565

Hope he's got a warm swing coming up. I know I know he doesn't hit enough XBH. Save it.

How valuable it is depends on how much Production™ you're getting along with that .233/.304/.450

Only 9 more games left against those killer Marlins. .And, only 58 games against the Nationals, Braves, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers and Giants. Should be a walk in the Park with this great offense.

Or, you know, the blind squirrel broken clock thing.

Blind squirrels are finding broken clocks now? What caused this massive paradigm shift?

Great. Expect DYoung to be extended for 3 years now...

So, we can praise M Young bc he has a .327 OBP, and we can hate on D Brown, bc he has a .290 OBP. However, we can't complain about M Young's anemic power, and praise D Brown's surge?

Is .290 all-star level? No, but this line-up needs a guy who will hit ~30 HRs this year. We all know it won't be M Young...

noname: who are you even talking/referring to with your made up arguments?

How many extra-base hits does Michael Young have this season? Can't be very many.

Thankfully, he's somehow found the fountain of plate discipline. Would be nice if he could share it with his teammates.

I'm confused as well

22.2% of all Michael Young hits go for extra bases.

How can Tyson Gillies be the new Mini-Mart when he:

(a) has never played a single game in the majors; and

(b) has actually had good years in the minors?

Jack-- 7 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR

Make that 20%.

On the other hand, 10% of all Michael Young outs are GiDPs.

No, 22% was correct.

The three Phils with walk rates above the league average of 7.9%:

Young 12.8%
Utley 9.0%
Mayberry 8.0%

Hilarious GIFS of Bourne and Shane Vic haha

Cyclic: Blargh. Yes it was. My only excuse for construing 7+2+1 as 9 (after review no less) is the emptiness of my coffee cup.

I feel like Rollins has been awful so far this year, yet his OPS is .705 right now.

Last year it didn't get out of the .500s (!) for good until June.

If he's able to go close to .255/.326/.483/.808 from June on again this year, that would be huge.

"It truly is a tribute to the lasting hatred that Mini Mart has inspired. He's the Freddy Krueger of Beerleaguer."


NEPP, I don't "hate" the guy. It's not his fault he was on the team for the better part of two years. (Heck, if I was him I'd enjoy the MLB paycheck too.) I just don't think he's a good enough baseball player to play in the major leagues.

I have been disgusted, however, by anyone in Phillies management that thought he was good enough to be on a MLB roster. Total, total "fail" on the part of the FO (and/or Charlie) on that score. Total fail.

"I just don't think he's a good enough baseball player to play for the Camden Riversharks."

fixed

Rollins' batting numbers are being hugely propped up by his torrid start to the season. He was hitting .316/.350/.526 after April 10th, then proceeded to sink back down into the .650 OPS range after just 9 games, before bouncing around a bit to finish out April just over .700.

This month he started out pretty weak, then started to heat up during the DBacks series (although that 2-double game to finish up the San Fran series was pretty nice too).

35% of his hits are going for extra bases right now, though, and he's got 4 steals to aid that (although his 3 CS brings that back down to earth).

All in all, I'm glad he's with us instead of exposing Galvis to a similar number of PAs.

3 CS (slow)

Rollins is playing basically exactly in line with what you would expect. A slash line of .264/.310/.396 is in line with his recent performance (a little light on the SLG), and he's giving solid defense and baserunning.

On pace for a solid 3 WAR season. That's who he is.

Jack-- You're totally right.

I'm just saying, given his much better start this season, if he puts together a pretty typical (for him) 2nd half, he'll end the year with much better numbers than last.

Hope he shows the same kind of power as last year. 20+ HR would be sweet.

For his career, 35% of Rollins' hits have been XBH. Over the 2010-2012 seasons, 32% of his hits have been XBH.

That's actually a lot more consistent power than I expected, I have to admit. 2012 was a noticeable uptick in that regard, though, in all varieties of XBH (although 2010 was something of an anomaly the other way).

It's kind of really nice getting that sort of prodüction from a solid defensive SS over 13+ years.

In other news, Ryan Madson suffers setback during rehab stint. Elbow soreness after an A-ball inning has kept him off any mounds since last week.

Maybe time for him to switch to Almond Joy.

That's a shame about Madson. Imagine what this site would've been like had the Phillies signed him to that 4 year deal?

Doubtless there would be many complaints about how he was getting paid too much to not pitch more.

That's a shame about Madson. I really liked him and wanted the Phils to re-sign him.

Plus he's the best reliever on my all-birthday team.

Another former top prospect is showing how hard it can be to adjust to the major league level. Jesus Montero got sent down to Triple A. The Mariners are also deciding he isn't going to be a catcher at the major league level and will play him at first and DH for now.

Top 5 prospect in 2010 and 2011 and top 10 in 2012- and his bat is what is getting him sent down.

So we got a move to come tomorrow with someone coming up to replace Aumont. Stutes?

Waiting on Utley's MRI today, maybe they'll DL him and call someone up. Hernandez? Ruf?

Adams to be re-activated Tuesday or Wednesday. Rosenberg gone?

Ruiz back in 3-4 weeks. But obviously that just means Quintero's gone.

Lannan throwing to hitters next week in Clearwater.

Zambrano in extended spring today.

Will be interesting to watch how the roster changes over the next couple weeks.

Cyclic: I... Really kind of hope Zambo the Barbarian stays in the minors. Even if he's not pitching that bad.

Honestly, I can think of all sorts of awesome promotions they could run in Reading with him - not the least of which would be a bobblehead of him mounted on an ostrich in full-on Conan garb.

So a 4 game Home and Home series against an AL team currently half a game out of 1st in their tough division.

Yeah we better take 2/3 in the Nats series.

But it will be interesting to see what the 2 lineups in Boston will look like. I think we see both RHP, so you'd hope they'd put Nix in RF and let DYoung DH at least. (since I know they won't bench him as they should against RHP)

I actually think the idea of Stutes up for Aumont, Adams back in for Rosenberg, and Zambrano up for Durbin significantly makes the bullpen better. Add in Lannan for Cloyd and you go:

Hamels
Lee
Kendrick
Lannan
Pettibone

Papelbon
Adams
DeFratus
Bastardo
Stutes
Horst
Zambrano

Phillibuster: I do like the idea of promotional nights for Zambrano but I'm thinking bigger. Have an entire night where everything revolves around Zambrano. Instead of the games in between innings where people spin around a bat and cross the finish line see how far people can throw a Gatorade cooler out of the dugout. Have them intentionally throw pitches at batters and see who can hit the most. Wealth of opportunity there.

Cyclic: And yet somehow Chad Durbin will still be here.

So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.

Hamels vs Strasburg could be a pretty sweet pitchers dual. Not only are they both top tier pitchers, but they both receive some of the worst run support in the leaguer. Strasburg is 5th and Hamels is 9th(2.8)

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