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Thursday, May 02, 2013

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I'm waiting for the moment where in celebrating a base hit Frandsen head butts someone and gets stuck to them. That will make the season.

Repost from end of last thread:

Kendrick was up in the zone a lot tonight. A better opponent might have hurt him more. That said, you have to beat the team in front of you, and he did do a nice job finding his way out of jams.

Sil - KK was up early on and ran into a potential ton of trouble through the 4th.

It's odd but after he got hit with the line drive off his hip by Solano to start the 5th he really settled in. Keep the ball down the rest of the game & didn't struggle at all.

It would be nice to see Halladay & Hamels pitching as well as KK though. If they both were, this team would be over .500 right now.

Another night Revere sits, another night the offense puts up a decent run total.

Mayberry didn't do anything offensively tonight & misplayed a ball that went over his head for a double early.

Still when Revere sits right now I can't help but think that this lineup isn't notably better off without 2 sure outs at the bottom of the lineup.

It's bad when KK is one of your top of the rotation pitchers.

Just 1 more thing - a 6th-inning sinker didn't sink; Ruggiano crushed it to dead center. After that? Business as usual for the formerly flappable Kyle Kendrick. Amazing transformation.

Someone made a joke in the last thread about Nix being a late-inning defensive replacement. Nix might actually be the second best defensive outfielder on this team, depending on your opinion of Mayberry. That is funny, come to think of it.

"It's bad when KK is one of your top of the rotation pitchers."

I think every team in baseball would be happy to have an ace pitcher with a 2.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

Dom up to .266/.333/.426 (107 wRC+).

With is piss poor defense and lack of any real baserunning threat, he has to get that up a ~120 wRC+ before he starts to approach an above average player.

I meant everything else is bad. KK has been quite good.

Normally, I would think the Phils are looking pretty good to sweep this series now especially if they can win tomorrow night (Pettibone vs Nolasco).

Given how Halladay has been this year though, I would be fine with 3 of 4.

Coming into tonight:

Starters ERA: 4.45 (13th in NL)
Overall ERA: 4.51 (14th in NL)

That is why the Phils have been losing despite the umpteen articles I have seen bemoaning the offense.

Those are really sh!tty numbers and the Phils were 14th in ERA by a wide margin (Fish were next at 4.20).

MG - Nice work. Hard to make up ground when the team's built on "pitching". And puts up that garbage.

I agree with you, MG, about the SP. I meant to agree with your post this afternoon which pointed out that we've tied up a lot of money in our rotation and the aces (combined) have disappointed us in several starts thus far.

Phils do have 18 out of 28 GS with a QS (64%). The one thing to hang your hat on if you still have some positive thoughts for the team is that the starting pitching starts to put it together (mainly Halladay) & Pettibone continues to be a serviceable starter.

Glad that Amaro continues to not make a move in middle relief though and keep up 3 guys that Cholly has no/little confidence in instead of calling up De Fratus to replace either Horst/Valdes. My nod would be to Horst who has been poor since the start of ST and has had command issues too.

I mean 18 of 29 GS (62%) with a WS after tonight. Still is decent and above the NL average (15 of 27 or 56%).

7 runs scored tonight. I guess that means that Papa Johns pizza coupon is in effect for tomorrow. Better place those orders now!

MG - Are you saying that Horst should be sent down for DeFratus?

Redburb - Yes. I don't care if the Phils only have 1 LHP in the pen if that guy is having issues with his command most outings and is getting hit hard.

Horst should be sent down for Jim Abbott's missing hand.

I would cut Durbin before sending Horst down. Dead weight. Get rid of him.

Durbin stays because of his contract (right or wrong). Aumont stays because of his stuff & the Phils don't have a plethora of RHP relief options.

Valdes/Horst though should be set down for De Fratus. I can't figure out why they think so little apparently of De Fratus even after he has gotten out to a pretty solid start at Lehigh & can go multiple innings if necessary.

Find it hard to believe the Phils think Horst is clearly the better option at this point.

RedBurb - Durbin has been terrible but this team has almost zero depth at the RHP reliever spot.

I would give him until the end of May to show something even though I would be stunned if he does.

Guess half full:

Hamels/Lee/Halladay trio have laid a collective egg so far and been outpitched (and by a decent margin) by the KK/Lannan/Pettibone trio.

If Hamels & Halladay do start to right the ship (and they have some signs the last 2 weeks of doing that), the starting pitching on this team should perk up along with their winning percentage.

Glass half empty

Even at full strength right now, this team looks like they are stuck in neutral most nights.

Halladay has been a disaster in half of his starts this year and KK is going to keep this up. Rest of the team is either average/below average across the board too whether it is the bullpen, defense, or offense. Starting pitching simply isn't good enough to compensate for it let alone have this team thrive like they did in '11.

My bottle is half full and I can predict the outcome. But hey, who could have predicted that Kendrick would continue to battle to make himself a true-to-life starting major league pitcher.

"Coming into tonight:

Starters ERA: 4.45 (13th in NL)
Overall ERA: 4.51 (14th in NL)

That is why the Phils have been losing despite the umpteen articles I have seen bemoaning the offense."

How dare you, MG. How dare you blame the pitching.

Loaded question:
Is this the year Kendrick finally gets another postseason appearance?
He pitched game 2 of the 07 NLDS and hasn't sniffed a game or playoff roster since.

Halladay & Lee didn't have their best stuff the last two games and got hit pretty hard. Kendrick didn't have his best stuff tonight but found a way to make it work. It was Miami, but still. Impressive stuff.

If Blanton parlayed his way into a 2 year/15 million dollar contract with three lousy years, it's interesting to think what Kendrick is pitching his way into the last two years. He'll be just 29 next year.

Didn't see much of J-Troll posting during the 8th inning tonight when Adams mowed them down 1-2-3 with two Ks. Wonder where he was? Whenever Adams gives up a run, he always seems to be around.

I think that's a good question, actually. Say Kendrick only regresses slightly from what he's doing now (I don't know if anyone expects him to keep up this torrid pace) and puts up a year in the 3.00-3.10 ERA range.

What does he get on the open market? 3.14 ERA in 15 starts in 2011. 3.89 ERA in 25 in 2012, but finished his last 10 starts with a 2.45 ERA. Plus whatever he does this season (looks like he'll match or maybe exceed those numbers).

In all honesty, if Kendrick keeps this up, I think he might be looking at Edwin Jackson-type money. 4 years/52 million.

Phillies pitching certainly hasn't been good, but denying the brutality of the offense is willful blindness. This team is averaging 3.57 R/G. The pitching staff would have to pitch to '11 levels to make up for that. It's not a reasonable expectation. As has been mentioned before, it's not just pitching, or just offense, or just defense, it's everything.

GTown- did you not used to think 'runs scored' or 'RPG' weren't effective ways to measure offense? You consistently said so when they were leading the league in runs scored.

Or is this another thing you said that has slipped your memory?

Iceman - Dave is right about the offense floundering a bit too.

Phils though were designed and invested a ton of resources in their pitching both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. Didn't expect/even hope that the other parts of the team would be better than average this year outside of the pitching staff & they have stunk too so far.

Fair enough, although my gripe w/ R/G has more to do w/ consistency than overall quality. So: the current Phillies rank at or below league average in almost every offensive category. It's difficult to interpret that in any way but to say the offense is not good. Claiming dead & dying bats haven't been an issue -- admittedly one of several -- is to be gratuitously argumentative.

Going into tonight these were the NL average splits:

.247/.313/.391 (.704 OPS)

It has been a really cold April so far across the US but you would have to go back to '92 to the last NL season to which the NL OPS was lower:

.252/.315/.368 (.684 OPS)

NL offense has been pretty low the past few years and it is the biggest reason why I think you will see the DL in the NL eventually along not having pitchers hurt batting/running on the basepaths will be a strong secondary reason.

Oddly enough it is identical to the NL CF splits too:

.247/.316/.388 (.704 OPS)

Revere clearly wasn't Amaro's first choice in CF (or even his 2nd or even 3rd maybe) but the NL definitely has trended towards even lower offensive totals.

Even 5 years ago (.262/.331/.416 or .747 OPS), a team with playoff aspirations would have been very hard pleased to go into a season starting Revere.

In this current environment though, even a CF who can put up an OPS slightly below .700 OPS as long as he is a very good defender & baserunner it is a lot easier to justify starting a guy like Revere again.

Only knock on that scenario is Revere probably has one of the worst arms in CF of the past 25-30 years and I don't think he takes consistently good routes to the ball to take advantage of his impressive range.

Factor in that and if his OPS is closer to .600, he is nothing but a role player and part-time player. At worst, he is a backup CF/5th OF type if he has a really low average year (.250 or .260).

With apologies to Kipling:

"Tho' I've belted you and flayed you,
By the livin' Gawd that made you,
You're a better man than I am, Kyle Kendrick!"

I thought for the Phils to have a decent chance to make the playoffs this offense had to average slightly over 4/runs game.

They did that last year (4.22 R/G) which was 8th in the NL and right at league average.

Right now they are at 3.75 R/G and the NL average going into tonight was 4.10 R/G.

The pitching staff though was giving up 4.57 R/G going into tonight and that was notably worse from last year at 4.20 R/G. League average was 4.15 R/G

If Lannan didnt go down. I would of sent Horst to the minors called up Pettibone. Smooth him in to Pen similar to what they did with Happ/Worley. Then at some point soon after made a decision between Valdes and Durbin and bought up Defratus

Wish we could play the the Marlins and the Mets every week.

Just listened to Mitch Williams on WIP. Safe to say that he will not be sending Rich Dubee a Christmas card. Said he was talking to Kendrick and Dubee dressed him down because of it. Was told to not speak to the pitchers.

I sort of like how Dubee is a nut case. He must be doing something right. He has been trusted with more star pitching power than anyone since Leo Mazzone and none of them have complained. He appears to have helped turn Kendrick into a Major League starter despite the rocky relationship. He oversaw Madson's growth and even got something out of Worley and Happ. Now how involved he is in bullpen management and things like that, I don't know. That could be a reason to criticize him.

Weekly Trade Value Rankings (last week):

#1. Chase Utley (1)
#2. Cole Hamels (2)
#3. Cliff Lee (3)
#4. Jimmy Rollins (4)
#5. Carlos Ruiz (5)
#6. Kyle Kendrick (7)
#7. Michael Young (8)
#8. Roy Halladay (6)
#9. Antonio Bastardo (9)
#10. Domonic Brown (10)

No real moves, just Doc coming off a bad start. If Mike Adams/Papelbon have a stretch of another 3-4 clean innings, they might start cracking this list.

KK may not yet have fully earned the title of Ace, but he's definitely a high face card. For now, KK stands for King Kyle. (We can't use all three initials due to political correctness. It would definitely be misunderstood.)

Dubee told the Wild Thing not to talk to his pitchers? That is rich.

Really, Dubee?


Here's a great quote from KK, via Salisbury:

“I’ve always kind of expected this out of me,” Kendrick said. “I know it hasn’t been there in the past like I’ve wanted, the fans have wanted, my teammates, the coaches, the organization, but I expect this out of me. Hopefully, now I can be consistent like that and give us a chance to win the game. That’s the main thing as a starting pitcher. I’m feeling comfortable and confident I can do that every time out.”

Would you want a mechanical disaster like Mitch Williams talking to your pitchers? The guy was a mess when he played. Same with the local media's other pitching expert Ricky Bo. That guy is another disaster. At least Mitch has grown up.

KK stands for King Kyle

I think that's pushing it, more like Jack or Queen.

I demoted St. Utley to Altar Boy earlier this year for all his mental lapses but with his recent play, I've promoted him to Blessed Utley. He's got a ways to go to reclaim his sainthood.

I'm with Dubee, I don't want Mitch Williams talking to my pitchers.

Took Kyle like 5 years to get past that "Traded to Japan" prank.

Edmundo, so Utley needs to have a Papal confirmed miracle or two to be elevated back to Sainthood? As for King Kyle, I thought that Quenn Kyle might be bad for his image, being as he has that hot model wife.

Yo, new thread!

Mitch: "Kyle I think you're throwing too many strikes and your finish isn't strong enough. Have you tried falling off the mound after each pitch?"

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