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Monday, May 20, 2013

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Worthy of adding to this thread (courtesy of NEPP):

"In America, first you get the high payroll, then you get the free swingers, then you get the Production™."

My favorite random facts:

Phils R/G is at a pace that you would have to go back to the '72 team to match

Fish are 9-28 (.243) or a 39-win season total pace vs the rest of MLB so far this year.

Can't wait until we can look back on 4-4 as an early season statistical anomaly

Reposted from previous thread:

Delmon's next roster bonus of $100K is due on June 10-ish, and I doubt they'll pay it unless his performance improves dramatically.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see J-Roll get traded sooner rather than later.

agree Colonel. Galvis needs to start. Delmon not worth a $100.00 roster bonus. if howard Is out need to see Ruf play everyday at 1B. Any chance Boston wants Papelbon back? What can they give us, Bradley ?, Nava ? plus a bullpen guy. Charlie and RAJ should have told Jimmy he was playing 3B this year so galvis could start.

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 45s
Phillies have had eight chances to pull within a game under .500 since mid-April. They are 0-8 in those games, including tonight's loss.

DFA D.Young.
Forget the M.Young 1B experiment.
Call up Ruf to play 1B until Howard is actually healthy (15 day DL min.)
Brown to RF.
Mayberry to CF.
Revere/ Nix/ maybe a little of Galvis in LF.
Mix Galvis in at 2B, SS, 3B to rest regulars.
Hope.Pray. Curse. Mutter. Rinse . Repeat.

Sounds like a plan, Bubba!

If the Phils cut Delmon Young before his next roster bonus, the games he played in don't count, right?

I was told there was no risk to signing him. Does that mean we get a do-over on the games we played where he sucked?

In the left-hander's last eight starts, the offense has scored a total of 13 runs with him in the game. In his 62 2/3 innings this season: 20 runs.


Again, Hamels should talk to Cliff Lee. My math has Cole getting 28 Runs of support in his 62.2 IP (10 GS) in '13, 15 of those Runs coming w/ Hamels in the game.

In Cliff's first 64.2 IP (9 GS) of '12, the Phillies scored a total of 30 Runs, 14 of those Runs being scored while Lee was in the game.

The team went 3-6 in those games, & Lee didn't win a single start until July. Meanwhile, Hamels was enjoying the best Run Support on the team, & got out of the gate w/ a 9-1 record.

I don't know how or even if the Run Support angle can be explained, but this is a crap offense, & Hamels is the one getting screwed most often in '13 just as Lee was in '12. Allowing it to get into his head won't suddenly turn a lousy supporting cast into a bunch of All-Stars.

The Nixberry platoon was actually working decently. Then they gave it up for Delmon Young, and now Mayberry faces 75% RHP and people complain that he sucks.

This team just seems to have no idea how to even utilize whatever small amount of talent they have. It's such a terribly uncreative, and unimaginative, and unbelievably small-minded front office. I mean, Delmon Young is your answer? Really?

I thought Amaro was not going to be very good when he took over. What I didn't think was that he'd be so obviously over his head.

Mayberry has a .824 OPS against lefties, and a .647 OPS against righties.

So he has 70% of his ABs against righties.

Are you kidding me?

A playoff-bound team takes yesterday's dramatic win and goes on a 6 or 8 game win streak. A mediocre team takes yesterday's dramatic win and proceeds to lay an egg the very next game. Cluck-Cluck!

Jeff Schuler (@jschulermc)

"Josh Fields' bags were packed and he was getting hugs. Asked if he was heading south, said with smile, 'Not the man to ask that question.'"

"Dave Brundage on potential Fields move: 'I can't comment on that right now.' Best guess: look for Howard to go to DL"

Looks like Michael Young is your new everyday 1B. At least Galvis gets a shot now.

Jack: There never was any platoon, & Mayberry was misused from the beginning. In 17 GS before D. Young joined the team, Mayberry had 12 GS vs. RHP, & 5 GS vs. LHP.

No sooner than I post:

Jeff Schuler (‏@jschulermc)
"MY APOLOGIES ... false alarm on Fields/Howard. Misread some signs and coupled with Phillies legandary secrecy/paranoia made big misjudgement"

Need to change the team name to Philadelphia Phlounders.

Given their performances this season, I would give Josh Fields a look over Ruf as replacement should Howard go on the DL.

limoguy- When Reading changed their name I think they took the Fightin' out of the Phila. team

Bubba, Reading is 16-26. All they've been fightin' is losing streaks. Not very successfully I might add.

Reading roster stinks this year. Might be one of the least-talented rosters in the last decade without any real legit prospects besides Biddle right now.

What talent the Phils do have is either at Lehigh or at low A or below.

'Winter is coming'

The Delmon Young saga actually feels a lot like the Mini-Mart saga. To any objective observer, Mini-Mart was a .188 hitter, who was hideous from both sides of the plate, was a poor base runner despite plus speed, and was a below average defensive player at almost every position on the field. In Cholly & RAJ's mind, though, Mini-Mart was a plus defender at 6 different positions, who could switch-hit and run like the wind. We're re-living the Mini-Mart delusion this year with Delmon Young. The objective evidence says that he's a career 98 OPS+ hitter, & considerably worse than that since 2011. In Cholly & RAJ's mind, though, he's a Nelson Cruz caliber player -- a guy you stick in the 5-hole, who will hit 25 homeruns and knock in 90 runs.

Obviously, Delmon Young is better than Mini-Mart but, then again, Mini-Mart didn't hold as important a spot on the team as Young does -- namely, a starting right fielder who bats 5th every night. What they have in common is that both ended up being awarded their jobs -- and permitted to stay in those jobs for far too long -- based on literally nothing other than RAJ & Cholly's fantasy that they were far better players than any evidence suggests them to be.

b_a_p: But at least the Phillies are saving money, right? I mean you'd just hate to be stuck w/ Hunter Pence, his .290/.326/.500 135 OPS+ line, & the possibility of trading that for a player or players who don't suck hind teat come deadline time ... what a burden!

GTown: But, if we were paying $13M to Hunter Pence, we wouldn't have been able to afford Chad Durbin, Mike Adams, Ben Revere, and Delmon Young.

This seems to have slipped under the Beerleaguer radar. Did anyone notice that O'Flaherty now needs TJ surgery also?

That's a pretty major loss, especially following the news that Venters needs the same surgery. If the Braves lose another 8 or 9 relievers, their bullpen might be almost as bad as ours.

b_a_p: True, true ... that's quite a bit of Production™. "Low Risk/High Reward", that's the way to go!

Chad Qualls got the last three outs! Chad "Bleepin'" Qualls!

Isn't Josh Fields the kind of player the Phillies release, then he goes on to contribute handily on another team? He seems like the next Brandon Moss if you ask me.

What? Charlie is misusing players? I never would have guessed.

What? Rube is in over his head? Color me shocked!

If Delmon is in the lineup tomorrow vs a tough righty who has absolutely owned us, then Cholly needs to be put to pasture. For Cholly to be forced to choose between Delmon or Nix, Ruben should have been fired this past offseason

if rube really thinks this is a good enough team that is just underperforming, then i wonder if he really did go to stanford.

MG: To be fair- you've said Reading's roster has stunk for the past 5 years in a row.

If Delmon is in the lineup tomorrow vs a tough righty who has absolutely owned us, then Cholly needs to be put to pasture. For Cholly to be forced to choose between Delmon or Nix, Ruben should have been fired this past offseason

Posted by: seattlephan | Tuesday, May 21, 2013 at 02:55 AM

I'm absolutely no Delmon Young apologist, but this kind of brought it all home for me. Delmon Young sucks and shouldn't be starting vs. right handers, but when he does start, he's starting in place of Laynce Nix.

Laynce f8cking Nix.

If that doesn't tell you just how objectively awful this offense is, I don't know what will.

If I were the reporters I'd refuse to talk to the team.

Rollins: "Anybody want a quote."

Gaggle of reporters: "No thanks." (run out of locker room and sound of car engines starting and tires squealing are heard.)

***This seems to have slipped under the Beerleaguer radar. Did anyone notice that O'Flaherty now needs TJ surgery also?***

Yeah, I saw that. If Kimbrel has a long-term deal on the table, he should probably jump on it before his arm is destroyed. Fredi is the new Dusty Baker.

***To be fair- you've said Reading's roster has stunk for the past 5 years in a row.***

To be fair, Reading's roster has stunk for the past 5 years.

Free Ruf? Maybe.

Fire Charlie? 100%

Enough is enough. How on God's green Earth does this worthless sack of garbage still have a job?

How?

The Braves and Nats are practically inviting the Phils to make a run at the division. I fully acknowledge that this team isn't as good as it has been in recent years past. But, I said at the beginning of the season that they would contend for a playoff spot, if not the division. The main reason for my thinking was that the Braves and Nats aren't very good. A few key injuries or slumps and they're just as "bad" as the Phils. It's happening and the Phils are taking advantage.

should read: "It's happening and the Phils are NOT taking advantage.

You know, Cole signed on to be the #1 guy and make the big money. He needs to show a little leadership and face the media after the game. He has every right to be frustrated with the team, but he can't be throwing hissy-fits after losses.

NEPP: 2009, 2011, 2012 they made the playoffs. I think at some point you have to assume there is some talent on the roster.

RBill: I agree completely with your 7:50 am post except for the part you amended in your 7:52 post.

With so many games yet against the Braves and Nationals yet this division is winnable, but the issue is going to be them starting to rise up against the lowly teams like the stinkin' Marlins.

I give Amaro credit for building on the core group that he inherited to win more games in successive seasons 09-11. He did it unconventionally (trading Lee, signing Lee, etc.), but he did it. I take away credit when he makes comments about valuing production and not placing emphasis on statistically significant events like walks and splits.

I have more of a problem with how the GM and Manager have seemingly no plan between the two of them. If the GM brings in a guy who can only be maximized by being used in a certain way, the Manager needs to be on board with how he will use him. I always assumed the Manager worked for the GM, so I have to place blame equally that the Manager continues to make these mistakes and the GM never corrects him.

The sad part is, given our previous performances against Fernandez and Slowey, this could realistically become a Marlins sweep.

I'm down with Bubba's agenda. May I also suggest that Revere be granted a special cutoff man that can play in shallow left with him. Revere is a no tool player. It's a shame because he seems like a nice enough guy for me not to dislike him so much but his game is just incredibly bad.

They will probably light Fernandez up tonight.


And then get no hit by Kevin Slowey.

The sense I get is that r00b decided to go all-in with the 2007-2009 core he inherited. The plan was to win another WS or 2 and then dismantle an expensive/aging team.

Unfortunately, the playoffs are a crapshoot and that plan didn't work out. r00b didn't really seem to have a backup plan for when the farm system was barren and there was no more money in the banana stand. Now we have the Delmon Young's and the Ben Revere's to fill out our roster.

Steve: There is always money in the banana stand.

Reading had about more talent last year for the first time in quite a while after the trades in August. Yeah they have been pretty thin talent-wise with a couple of exceptions.

TTI, I burned that banana stand to the ground.

Regardless, the Phillies still need a new "Mr. Manager"

Did someone just quote a minor league team's record as evidence of their talent?

C'mon people. Just because a 32 yr old Tagg Bozied went Babe Ruth on a bunch of kids does not mean the team had "talent".

You know, Cole signed on to be the #1 guy and make the big money. He needs to show a little leadership and face the media after the game. He has every right to be frustrated with the team, but he can't be throwing hissy-fits after losses.

I wouldn't call it a hissy fit. Todd Zolecki said he hasn't not addressed the media after a game since August of 2007. I have seen him stand up time and again in the face of adversity. Like him or not, he might have hit the breaking point. I wouldn't trust myself to address the media for fear I would have made the situation worse and I have no doubt Cole will return to his usual accountable self. Just once let's cut him a break on this one.

Reading has a pretty good team and was in the Eastern League playoffs last year.

Free Cesar free ruf free Cody free josh fields
If you are gonna blow it up. Do it the right way
Cesar 2nd
Galvis SS
Asche 3rd
Brown RF
Ruf LF
Fields 1st
Rev CF
Whoever catching
As bad as it is now could these guys do any worse?
Take the Guys u traded and get an Of and middle R.
Further out of WC then division now. When u lose 4 games to
The fish u can't be taken as a playoff team.

6IP 2ER vs the Marlins is basically like 4IP 5 ER against any other team in baseball. I don't care if every out was on a K, he gave up 2 runs in 6IP to the Marlins, he has no gripe.

For reference, since rocking Halladay 13 game ago, the Marlins have only scored more than 2 ER against a starting pitcher once (scored 3ER against Dodger's emergency starter Matt McGill).

The best part is taken each spot and compare them. Nbers not to far off.

lorecore: You can have some talent on a roster in the minors and yet not serve a functional organizational purpose. But Reading had some good young talent spread over their teams the past few years. TO pretend they had nothing is ridiculous.

Looking back at rosters though brought up the Matt Rizzotti name. Remember when he was a stud in the making and was going to bail out the offense?

limoguy: last year Reading did have a pretty good team. Ruf/Asche broke out, fringe guys like Cesar and Leandro had solid years, their rotation was all "prospect" worthy in Pettibone, May, Julio Rodriguez, and a bit of Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin at the end.

That would would hold true regardless of their record however. A terrible way to judge a farm system's talent level.

if the Hook was around in a few yeras ago, he would have posted about Matt Rizzotti 5 times a day.

Probably have to go back to 2009-2010 for the last time there was something going on in Reading: Bastardo, Berry, Brown, Drabek, Galvis, Stutues, Taylor, Zagurski, Worley, Escalona, Mathieson.

2010 added the Lee guys. Jump to 2011 and you're talking Cloyd, Hyatt, Overbeck, Aumont, De Fratus.

Oh, I don't know it seems pretty reasonable to look at our top farm teams and their 19-25 and 16-26 records and assume they are pretty light on talent. Lord knows that no one on the big club is blocking any actual talent.

Hamels threw 20 changeups yesterday, 15 for strikes. Marlins only put 5% in play and whiffed on almost half of them. Prior to yesterday, he was down to 62-63% strikes on the CH. Hopefully a positive sign for Hamels.

Does Hook post with a telegraph?

I love the idea that losses to the Marlins somehow count more than losses to other teams.

I guess Redsleaguer right now is worried the Reds won't make the playoffs since they dropped 2 of 3 on the road to the hapless Phillies, a team who is 4-4 against the only slightly more pathetic Marlins.

I agree it's more frustrating to watch them lose to a sh*tty team, but it happens. As bad as last night was, I think they can turn it around and come back with a couple wins in time for what should be an interesting series against Washington.

As much as they play down to bad teams, I think they've also played up to good ones. Should be a good one.

The Marlins average .070 runs per PA off of starting pitching this year.

Cole Hamels allowed .083 runs per PA yesterday. He pitched worse than the average starting pitcher.

I can't find a way to "average" the starts vs Marlins other than that. If anyone else has an idea, please give it a try - but until then I'm holding out that 6IP 2ER is like a 80 ERA+ performance, out of a $24M starter nonetheless. Hamels sucks.

Before anyone jumps on it, I understand it's probably more accurate to say they either play across to bad teams, or even UP to bad teams.

"Sanabia** has been a replacement level pitcher this year, but tonight, he shut down the Phillies."

**Insert pitcher's name here**


Obviously the author hasn't followed much of the Phils this year.

No Matt R is like Jim murph now . Never was a prospect.

After Biddle, the next best prospect on Reading's roster is probably Zach Collier, who was a fringe top 30 guy entering the year and is hitting less than .200 for the season. That roster is shockingly devoid of talent.

lorecore: but was it really Cole's fault that he was pulled early in the game for a pinch hitter? He could have gone another inning easy.

Did I miss the post where someone said Reading was swimming with talent this season?

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 45s
Phillies have had eight chances to pull within a game under .500 since mid-April. They are 0-8 in those games, including tonight's loss.

Posted by: GBrettfan


Okay this is depressing. Allergic to .500 it seems.

No post season from nle. Very weak division. A team full of old has beens , $25 million busts or worthless AAAA players.

This team is so close and gonna turn it around. Funny how people still think this team is going somewhere. There won't be a wildcard coming out of this division. The best part is wheels and LA are starting to say how bad this team is.

Hook-- If you're referring to me, I just meant "turn it around" in the sense of this specific Marlins series. Not the entire season.

Seriously, how bad is this team?

Bad.

So much vitriol and negativity in the game thread last night. It was actually kind of scary.

Horrible play really brings out the venom.

Does that .500 allergy mean that if they somehow get OVER .500 they're never going to fall back under it...?

So what's the deal with Howard? Why not just DL him and let Ruf hack it at 1b, and then re-evaluate Howard.

Muuurgh-- Only if they FREE RUF

Perils: thanks for the link about Sanabia 'expectorating' on the ball. He's gonna have to be fined or suspended, right?

Unfortunately though, that just gives me an excuse for this inexcusable loss: "The Fish cheated, and the Phils are still a decent team."

Powerless to stop myself from deluding...myself.

"Does that .500 allergy mean that if they somehow get OVER .500 they're never going to fall back under it...?"


Actually if we keep getting close, we'll more than likely build up a tolerance and finish between 77 and 83 wins.

As much as they play down to bad teams, I think they've also played up to good ones. Should be a good one.

Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, May 21, 2013 at 09:45 AM

I posted about this sometime last week when everyone was dooming and glooming. It seems like the Phils have a "vs. Team" competitive factor where they pick it up against tough teams and are nonchalant/ineffective vs. bad ones. I think it goes back to late 2011 when they clinched the division and went on the cold spell and winning was "old hat." When they're expected to win, they falter, and when they're expected to lose due to their performance against crap teams, they perform (except in, say, those 10-0 games). The 2013 Phillies 'thrive' when they're uncomfortable.

In this state, the Phillies keep things interesting, but it's certainly a roller coaster...

Haha Mick would approve of that I'm sure. Bring back the Binoculars.

I remember last year too even. They had clawed their way back into the thick of it. Down maybe 3 games in the 2nd WC. And all they had to do was beat an eventual 100+ loss Houston team and they proceeded to drop 3 of 4.

Can't afford to play down like that ever now that they aren't capable of putting together the best record in baseball.

I have an idea for center field. A Revere/Minimart platoon. No, I don't mean they alternate or anything like that. I mean they both play CF at the same time! This will improve their range and if one plays shallow, they might actually be able to hold hitters to singles! Of course, you'd need a rules exception from the league to allow two guys to play one position at the same time, but heck, it's worth a try!

Yeah, exactly. And guess who was relegated to bench duty while Ryan Howard went hitless in those Astros games...?

OH NO! WE SUCK AGAIN!!!

The rest of the league would probably be willing to let the Phillies play two CFs at a time just to get Mini-Mart's bat into the lineup.

Come on now, in his defense, he was actually 2-12 in the 3 losses with 4 Ks and 3 RBIs. Production™

Ruf rider meanwhile had 1 PA and grounded out.

Wait, sorry, I lied about the hitless thing--I was looking at the wrong year. That being said, Wiggy started in LF in "Game 3," in which we lost 0-5.

"The rest of the league would probably be willing to let the Phillies play two CFs at a time just to get Mini-Mart's bat into the lineup."

Oh, I forgot. We'd need an exception to allow both of those potent bats in the lineup at the same time. e.g. 10 guys in the lineup!

They play to their competition? They've been blown out in about 30% of their games. As the Phils continue to fail to meet the preseason criteria for success ("if they can just get something from Doc, Hamels is Hamels, Utley and Howard, Ruiz, ..."), the goal posts get moved.

They look more like a 70 win team than an 81 win team.

***They look more like a 70 win team than an 81 win team. ***

And that 70 could easily turn into 60-65 if they do a huge selloff this summer.

At the moment, they look more like an 18-27 team, while they are actually 21-24.

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