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Tuesday, May 14, 2013

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dammit i forgot Kazmir was a lefty.

Feels like....

re: Place for Ruf with the caveat that NoD is immovable

32% of all PA taken last year were in games started by a LH pitcher. That means a team would average 52 games against a lefty starter over the course of a full season.

If you sat just 1 of Howard and DOM around 25 games a piece over the course of a season, then Ruf could conceivably start vs a LHP every time in LF/1B without really needing to "platoon" anyone. Mix those 50 starts with pinch hitting duties and any short term injury replacements, and you've got a pretty full use of Ruf out of this roster.

I guess Fransden makes the most sense as the odd man out. Freddy is trusted to play 3B-SS-2B, so if Ruf covers 1B then you're basically set in the infield.

Lore: Frandsen seems to be the most fungible in terms of return on performance. Yes, he can play 2nd (sort of) or 3rd (more sort of), but generally speaking there probably isn't a need for him on the roster unless someone on the left side of the infield goes down with an injury.

Especially not if your replacement for him hits better, and can play 1B better defensively.

and if you think Howard sitting 25 games is absurd, he is already on pace to not start 17 games this year, without a real backup 1B option even on the roster.

Charlie Manual doing SEO to get his Alfa Romeo:

He'd pick random keywords based on his gut, ("Need to lure people to a heartburn medicine site? Well, when I get heartburn it reminds me of that sake I had in Japan. So, I'll type in 'japan' and see what happens" ) and they'd totally bomb except when it came time for a performance review when inexplicably his numbers would spike (random epidemic of heartburn in Japan?) and outperform every existing keyword strategy -- for a period just long enough to continue employment before again descending to abysmal levels.

This would happen a couple times, and by then he'd be known as an SEO guru.

Let's not rush Ruf to the bigs. He's only 27. :-)

lore - Sorry if I missed why this changed by why did you change your name from lorecore to lorecorn?

Agree with others that Frandsen would be the guy to go unless you end the Delmon Young experiment. Think you need Mayberry as a backup CF and someone who should be platooning with Nix (and even Revere on some days).

Not even sure I like that move, though. Frandsen is crushing LHP over his last 2 seasons (about 100 PA with an AVG over .400 and a SLG of something like .600).

Red-- We had 3-4 posters in a game thread with "corn" in their handles. lore wanted to join the crowd.

A rare two game series sandwiched between off days at home. Of course the Phils draw a lefty in the first game, thereby submarining their chances tonight, right before as the inevitable "get away" BPS tomorrow afternoon.

Feels like a series sweep (again).

The "on the other hand" above made me laugh. So Indians have won 13/16, boast one of the league's best offenses, and will get Bourn and Swisher back. "On the other hand" the Phils just won 4 of 7.

Yeah, Sophist. I don't even think I'd want to see Ruf up if it's at the expense of Frandsen. (Not that I endorse at all the idea of Frandsen playing 1B).

sophist: true, frandsen is .400/.426/.554 vs LHP in 68 PA last year and is .429/.500/.714 in his 16 PA this year.

Hard to to say he isn't doing his job, regardless if its unsustainable or not.

For what it's worth, Ruf is posting a .733 OPS vs. LHP this year (24 PAs), and has a 3-year 1.159 OPS vs. LHP.

However, that does include a lot of AA/A+ ball, and his 2013 split has an OPS Vs. RHP exactly .150 points higher.

If Nix, Galvis or anyone else can be our backup CF then JMJ can be lost to the return of Ruf. I have a good feeling about this game.

Rollins (SS), Frandsen (2B), M. Young (3B), Howard (1B), D. Young (RF), Brown (LF), Ruiz (C), Mayberry (CF), Pettibone (P).

Does Charlie think it's Sunday? I don't get this lineup at all.

I think the Phils should restock the farm system by pulling the trigger on one of the many tantalizing trade offers they have for D. Young, thereby making room for Ruf.

One of the best hitting teams in baseball now at full strength against rookie Jonathan Pettibone. Feels like A WIN!

I kind of get the feeling the Jonathan Pettibone bandwagon is in for a bumpy ride tonight.

Happy to see Frandsen against a lefty and not playing first base.

Limoguy: No way, man. They have to wait for his trade value to be at its absolute peak. Give it a few days, when he'll have his seventh multi-HR game in a row - then we can start talking to teams.

Like maybe the Marlins, offering to take that convalescing bum Stanton off their hands for a cheaper, Young-er power-hitting corner outfielder.

Neither Nix or Galvis could play CF...both are rather scary thoughts actually.

Is Utley off on a Caribbean vacation? The two days off this week aren't enough? I get that he's struggling against lefties, but of all the spots you could platoon...

And if you're going to sit both Utley and Revere and Galvis STILL can't start, might I offer him up as your sacrifice to the Ruf Gods?

NEPP: Nix played CF the other day because Revere is so pitiful he always needs to be pulled for a PH late in games.

Gtown: Lefty starter.

Odd that Utley gets the day off instead of Howard. While both suck against lefties, Utley at least gives you good defense and baserunning, while Howard is essentially a dead weight in every aspect of the game when a lefty is on the mound. Maybe just decided to give Utley's legs a day off, which makes sense.

The lefty starter explains Frandsen's presence in the lineup and why Mayberry is starting over Revere. Lineup actually kind of makes sense.

An enterprising GM might wonder why he traded for Ben Revere just to be a platoon CF, but you know. Whatever.

That's a pretty topical Beerleaguer lineup if i've ever seen one.

Frandsen vs a LHP and Mayberry as the backup CF vs a LHP.

NEPP: Nix played CF the other day because Revere is so pitiful he always needs to be pulled for a PH late in games.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, May 14, 2013 at 03:07 PM

UC has also played Mini Mart in CF on occasion. That doesnt make it a viable solution/idea.

Jack: I know it's a LH starter. What I don't get is why Howard's name is still in the lineup. The idea of Frandsen at 2B also makes me nervous.

Maybe Utley is dinged up or something.

Also, if Adams is actually hurting, why the hell isn't he on the DL and another reliever brought up? I could have sworn they said he had a back issue right now.

Did I miss a DL move?

If Adams is just day to day, then its not worth losing him for 15 games.

Jack: Fortunately, we only traded a platoon starter for him.

NEPP: I agree. But that's why it happened, & I doubt it will be the last time.

Yeah, stick Frandsen at 1B and play Utley, or put Galvis at 2B if Utley really needs a day off. But CM is obviously working with a lot more information than we are.

Revere benched against a LHP again when he is probably one of the better regulars against LHP.

Just stupid. I mean, I get that you want Mayberry in the lineup against a LHP (batting 8th, haha), but you could get him in pretty easily by benching a guy that actually struggles badly against LHP. You know, that Albert Ross guy.

Never mind that they are benching Revere after making a theoretical commitment to him, just as he starts to heat up. They're benching him consistently against LHP when he doesn't have a platoon problem. Do they even look at splits in the clubhouse?

Do they even look at splits in the clubhouse?

This is a rhetorical question, right?

While I probably wouldn't build the lineup this way if I were the one making it out... Do we all agree that if the Phillies score in bunches today, Charlie outfoxed us all?

Phillibuster: Define "bunches". Like, a normal team "bunches" (6-7 runs), or a Phillies "bunches" (4 runs)?

The worst part is that if this lineup DOES produce runs in spite of itself, UC will see it as validation of his "strategy".

GTown: You can define it as you want. If you're saying that 4 is "bunches" for this team, then one would speculate lineup construction could only do so much to get any difference in results.

Personally, I think 5+ should probably count, given the team's emphasis on pitching at the expense of offense.

Most teams should win most games they score 5 runs in. The Phillies should win pretty much all games they score 5 runs in (if they're going to threaten for the division, anyway).

NEPP: If it's not Charlie's fault if the lineup scores, is it then not his fault if this lineup doesn't score?

We must strive for consistency, after all.

I don't necessarily have a huge issue with the lineup, in that he got guys you would theoretically want in the lineup against a lefty starter into the lineup.

I just think he did it the wrong way in subbing out Utley instead of Howard(assuming Utley's health is fine). And I think, in the bigger picture, I question why you're platooning Ben Revere.

But as far as lineup decisions go, he's done far worse than this. Getting Frandsen and Mayberry into the lineup against a lefty starter is not the worst-case result, and avoiding the worst-case result sadly feels like a victory at this point.

Jack: The idea is not what you'd do. That's just fantasy. The idea is what can be done given the constraints set by Charlie and Rube.

We both know that they will carry 12 pitchers and we both know they won't dump Delmon.

Those are the constraints. Given that, what would you do? Would you give Ruf a chance or not? If yes, then who would you cut?

Clout: If you're saying I have to work within flawed premises, then the answer is yes, I'm likely to end up with the same flawed result that they have come to.

That really doesn't tell us much, now does it?

Phillibuster: I was being facetious. While I don't quite get why Howard of all players isn't also being removed from today's lineup, I still place the overall pitiful state of the team squarely on r00b's shoulders. There are only so many ways to stack manure. And seeing as how I'll be at the game this evening, I certainly hope the offense finds a way to score bunches.

Clout: Do we really know that Delmon won't get the boot?

And I mean seriously now, not the imagined "Amaro is too prideful to ever admit he signed the wrong guy" stuff, since we have evidence as recently as last year that sort of thing just isn't true. Heck, we have evidence as recent as ST to affirm that (Yuniesky for instance).

Also, Delmon isn't a Rule 5.

If nothing else, at least we have mashers like Galvis and Revere on the bench for late game PH appearances.

I personally think getting Chase Utley's knees 3 out of 4 days off by only missing 1 game, which is vs a LHP, is a great idea.

GTown: I gotcha. But in all seriousness, in some situations we should consider 4 "bunches" for this team.

Admittedly, the same is true of most teams in the league, but that doesn't mean it also isn't for us at times.

Preacher: I see your point. However, I've actually witnessed Galvis hitting a HR, & on more than one occasion. No one has ever seen Revere hit a HR.

Clout: I mean, if the constraints are I have to build/manage a roster like Charlie Manuel and Ruben Amaro would build/manage a roster, I'd just as soon not bother.

I mean, these are the guys that kept and played Michael Martinez for almost two years.

GTown: Ah, but have we witness Revere fly out to the warning track either?

Net win baby!

Fearsome TBA lineup for the Indians.

Jack: Well, your fantasies tell us even less.

(TBA) crushes Phillies pitching.

Giving the "top 10" international prospect list another once-over, I discovered a player that either the Phillies or the Nationals must sign, simply by name alone.

Yeyson Yrizarri

jack: we've all watched/followed this team long enough to know what is likely possible and what isn't.

All clout asked is under the likely circumstance of things happening, would you call up Ruf and who would he replace?

also, its just a simple hypothetical, its not like clout is going to remember you said you'd rather one player over another in a specific instance and then excessively post reminders about it once that player failed/succeeded expectations for the next 5 years in effort to criticize any other opinion you may have on a mostly unrelated topic.

I thought Utley's knees were better off moving around and doing baseball stuff than resting. In that case, 3 days off out of 4 isn't what you want.

The worst part is that if this lineup DOES produce runs in spite of itself, UC will see it as validation of his "strategy".

See Philadelphia Phillies, 2005-2012.

Pat Gallen: "Utley just getting routine day off. Manuel thought about it Sunday decided to go with it today."

considering Chase was 4-5 on Sunday, that's a nice looking 'gut' move.

'its not like clout is going to remember you said you'd rather one player over another in a specific instance and then excessively post reminders about it once that player failed/succeeded expectations for the next 5 years'

You had me taking this seriously until halfway through. Then I laughed at it and at myself for getting sucked in. Good job!

Lorecore: Well then he should just guess/judge correctly!

I kid, I kid.

This Phils mangle-ment team of UC/RAJ makes me so frustrated: when the entire team didn't play yesterday, that was Utley's "routine day off."

Sitting him today and then playing him for each of 10 games in 10 days is plain stupid.

There's another day off on Thursday, Nok.

Buster: exactly, which makes it even more infuriating.

As Limo pointed out, it's not good for Utley to sit too much (or at least that's what we've been told this year.)

Nok: Considering Utley hasn't looked hobbled in the least (or at least no more than I'd expect a 34-year-old 2B to look), and has been posting his best slash since 2009, I don't think there's really a lot of room for us to complain about how they've been treating Utley.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him PH tonight, and I'm sure he was taking grounders yesterday - and likely today as well.

If I ran the team under Ruben Amaro's constraints, I would likely have signed Delmon Young this offseason (since I value Production and anti-Semitism over taking walks and playing defense), traded for Ben Revere (because... hey, why not?), and traded for Michael Young (since he's a Professional Hitter, which means he hits ground balls and doesn't walk).

I guess I just don't understand the idea of a hypothetical under such constraints. My whole point is that those constraints are what's the issue.

Indians Lineup available.

Bourn-8, Kipnis-4, Cabrera-6, Swisher-3, Santana-2, Reynolds-5, Brantley-7, Stubbs-9, Kazmir-1

'(or at least that's what we've been told this year.)'

Ever so subtle irony duly noted, nok.

Buster: but then we're back to "the results validate the premise," no matter how flawed it may be.

Of course I'm not a doctor, and it's more complex to handle Utley's knees than I'm stating, so I guess I shouldn't criticize too much. It just seems to me that there are plenty of other opportunities to sit him that are more logical.

All of which is to say, no, I wouldn't demote Mayberry for Ruf, because that's what you're asking. If you say I can't cut Delmon, and I have to demote an OF, then you're asking if I would demote Mayberry for Ruf. The answer is no, I wouldn't.

That doesn't make it right to have Ruf in AAA. It just means you and Rube are asking the wrong questions.

After this conversation, I fully expect that Utley will get the GWRBI as a PH tonight.

Per Aaron Gleeman at hardballtalk's twitter:

Ben Revere has 1,193 plate appearances in the majors and his on-base and slugging percentages are identical: .316.

Limo: yep, he prob will.

Nokwurst: The ends don't always justify the means, but in sports... Well, so long as you're not cheating, they sort of have to, don't they?

I mean, this isn't even soccer, where we can get a tie. Each game is a binary question with a required answer - win or lose; succeed or fail. If handling Utley this way is what leads to his success, I don't think we can complain with any great degree of legitimacy that they're handling him poorly.

I think MAAAAberry is out of options. Pretty sure he would have to clear waivers and all of that.

"Per Aaron Gleeman at hardballtalk's twitter:

Ben Revere has 1,193 plate appearances in the majors and his on-base and slugging percentages are identical: .316."

Revere nickname 'The Gnat'

Mosquito?

Yes, Mayberry is indeed out of options

I like charlie but why does he give players the night off after he has a great game. Utley tonight he did it to young and howard as well. Why not ride the hot streak.

I have to think Utley's knees are really bothering him if he is out tonight after an off-day on Monday and another off-day on Thurs.

There are 5 active players with higher OBP than SLG in at least 1193 PA.

Ryan Hanigan: .364/.350
Jamey Carroll: .354/.343
Gregor Blanco: .350/.334
Ruben Tejada: .332/.327
Nick Punto: .328/.327

MG: That allegedly isn't the case, per Charlie's comments to Pat Gallen that GTown quoted above.

Whether you want to believe that or not is another story, of course, but I'd be inclined to take Charlie at his word on that sort of thing. He doesn't often outright lie to the media, even if he deflects or doesn't give responses that effectively answer the questions all the time.

Are we going to get crushed by Cleveland at home now? That's what I'm thinking.

But then, I also thought we'd lose 0-2 on Sunday.

Philibuster - Didn't see it. thanks.

"I have to think Utley's knees are really bothering him if he is out tonight after an off-day on Monday and another off-day on Thurs."

Raise your hand if you are shocked that MG thinks a player is secretly hurt.

GBrettFan, I thought the same as you on Sunday. Unlikely win. Couldn't get to the starter that everybody else got to and then got to the reliever that nobody else got to. The only thing bad about that was afterwards listening to T Mac and Wheels crow about how 'you just can't figure the game out.'

If that's the case, then we should be good today. Nobody else can get to Kazmir, so we're primed to unload, no?

I like charlie but why does he give players the night off after he has a great game. Utley tonight he did it to young and howard as well. Why not ride the hot streak.

Posted by: jro | Tuesday, May 14, 2013 at 04:38 PM
---------------

Thats routine for Charlie. He sits them after a hot night but will ride them to the ground when they are slumping...to "break out" of that slump.

Ughh AAAberry. I guess they didn't leave him in the Arizona Grand Canyon. Couldn't be so lucky.

By the way: Happy Birthday, Roy Halladay

Jack - Just because I believe the Phils are often not telling the truth about an injury doesn't mean that it isn't so especially with this team the last few years and the extent to which players do get injured especially pitchers.

Galvis and Utley had great games on Sunday. Both sit. It's an interesting management decision.

And I would bring up Ruf and DFA Durbin, Horst or Valdez. I would prefer to dump Delmon, but we know that's not going to happen. Of course, under the alleged constraints of not dumping Young and Not going with one less pitcher, I suppose we're stuck without Ruf. But Clout believes we can't know the Phillies financial strategy, even though they just about bent themselves into a pretzel this offseason to avoid the luxury tax. Yet, we are supposed to believe that Clout can know their roster strategy?

Both would take keen observation. And we know that keen observation doesn't exist.

And I would bring up Ruf and DFA Durbin, Horst or Valdez.

Agreed. There's no point in having players in the bullpen who Charlie can't or won't use. I'd rather take the extra bat.

Delmon Young-- Everyday right fielder

We are facing a LHSP today.

The Phillies are vulnerable to handed pitching.

So you're saying we'll be good against the guy who throws a slurve with his tongue?

"Deer Tick" Revere

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