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Thursday, May 02, 2013

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"After a [series victory] in [New York], the [Marlins] come [to Philadelphia] where they hope to beat up on the hapless [Philadelphia Phillies].

There, that looks about right now.

I wonder if JW knew this was coming and decided to jump ship. Can't say I blame him.

repost from last thread:

In case you wondered what kind of logic goes into the construction of a lineup like this:

David Murphy ‏@HighCheese

Good news is Phillies hit a home run off Alex Sanabia last year. Bad news is it was their only run in six innings against him

quickly followed by:

David Murphy ‏@HighCheese 24m

I didn't even have to look. I did, though, just to confirm: John Mayberry, starting in CF, was the guy who homered off Sanabia

The Kratz start is certainly interesting. Hard to say that Chooch needs a day off...

WP: Almost as good as using 7-year-old scouting reports to evaluate D Young

Kratz was sort of KK's personal catcher as far back 2012, no? It was purely coincidental, with KK's starts often coming on the getaway day, or the much-beloved BPS games at home, but it seemed that - for whatever reason - the quad-K battery (eriK Kratz, of course) outperformed KK and Chooch.

Also, I couldn't even make this up. My CAPTCHA confirmation words for that post?

"Production araYjAy"

Great stuff from TTI in the last thread, including coming up with Jack's new nickname JTroll.

At the inevitable BL meet-up, BAP and I would be the undercard to TTI-Jack. clout vs. everyone would be the main event I imagine.

I wouldn't be against having our CAPTCHA words posted along with our posts. I've nailed some pretty hard ones that I feel the need to brag about.

i've also mistyped words by at least 3-4 letters and still got it passed though, so who knows.

Phillibuster: That's classic. r00b approves.

Steve, the irony is that, in this case, the "Well, John hit a HR off this guy a few years ago. I remember that" methodology is actually an upgrade from using the guy he's replacing tonight. That's damn scary.

Also, only further fuel to the fire of the Phillies preferring vets. You can't trust your gut based on previous performance of a guy you haven't had on the team before. I guess it's THERE that you trust his place in the draft and scouting reports from the Bush Administration.

Might be an omen for tonight, Phillibuster. Now the question is whether that's a good thing...

Preacher: It also means D. Young, he of the 1st Phillies AB Home Run, is locked into the lineup for the rest of the year.

"Production araYjAy"

Funny, this is exactly what I muttered when I first heard that fateful RAJ interview.

Meh. When Revere is doing as poorly as he is now, I don't think anybody should be particularly upset about Manuel putting anybody else in CF. Especially someone who can play at least half-way competent D there.

My best Captcha was "Dom" "annointed".

buster: "it seemed that - for whatever reason - the quad-K battery (eriK Kratz, of course) outperformed KK and Chooch."

You can look at that up under KK's splits for 2012:

To Ruiz: 79.2 IP, 4.18 ERA
To Kratz: 36.2 IP, 4.91 ERA
To Schnieder: 35.1 IP, 2.55 ERA
To Lerud: 7.2 IP, 2.35 ERA

Lorecore: Color me surprised, then. Although I'd want to check the gamelogs on those 36 IP to Kratz. I'm thinking that could be the result of 1-2 stinkers and 4-5 solid starts.

Webcomics have led us to the following: http://www.gynostar.com/archives/1644

No need to fear, KK is here!

" I guess it's THERE that you trust his place in the draft and scouting reports from the Bush Administration."

Bush I or Bush II?

Pat Gallen: "Charlie saying Mayberry will still play some with Delmon returning and Revere in CF."

Translation: If Mayberry hasn't homered against today's opposing starter, Mayberry's gonna be on the bench.

Alex Sanabia is a finesse right-hander, who doesn't strike many hitters out, isn't a ground ball pitcher and is the very epitome of sub-mediocrity. I would be shocked if the Phillies get shut out on 3 hits again tonight. I'd look for them to get shut out on about 5 hits.

To be fair, Delmon's probably better against RHP than Mayberry usually is.

clout vs. everyone would be the main event I imagine.

Nah, I picture clout as more like the Grand Wizard of Wrestling http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernie_Roth

Phillibuster: I'm not complaining. I'm also not nearly convinced that splits have anything whatsoever to do w/ Charlie's decision.

"Alex Sanabia is a finesse right-hander, who doesn't strike many hitters out, isn't a ground ball pitcher"

Unless Revere is the hitter...

Revere is a finesse hitter so that could be an interesting matchup.

Has Jack posted since he was called a DWOS, or is he still licking his wounds? God I'm childish, I can't stop laughing about that.

"Revere is a finesse hitter so that could be an interesting matchup."

Odd, my copy of Webster's doesn't list 'finesse' as a synonym for sh*tty?

Tricky Dick: Sounds to me like you need to find one from MW.

RN: "Scrappy" = "Shitty". "Finesse" = "Unfathomably Weak".

Frankly, the mere use of the words "Revere" and "hitter" in the same sentence are grounds for temporary suspension from use of the English language.

MWWWWMGGHHMWGH

That's what adjectives are for.

... the mere use of the words "Revere" and "hitter" in the same sentence..."

Isn't that like a paradox that causes the fabric of space-time to rupture, engulfing the cosmos in chaos and destruction?

Whoever had "swollen right ring finger" in the 'Ben Revere injury fabrication pool' wins.

Jamie Apody: "Charlie Manuel tells me he can't do much with a lineup of inconsistent hitters. He said when you see a bunch of .250s, they are just that."

Exactly. And good hitters are just that, too. Charlie's "hitting guru" credentials aren't worth a pillow full of stale beer farts.

"Has Jack posted since he was called a DWOS, or is he still licking his wounds?"

From this day forward, "douchey waste of sperm" will be the Beerleaguer gold standard to which all other insulting remarks are compared. Even clout has work to do if he's to top that. Frankly, I feel like something of a failure. The best insult I've ever been able to elicit out of TTI was "douchebag."

Talking to the Phillies:

(Talking to Dom Brown): Here are you ISO numbers. 3 doubles, 3 HRs, and no triples. That's a .133. Congratulations, Mr. Brown. You're at the top of the Phils' list of guys who aren't supplying the necessary power this clubs needs. Mr. Young?

0.74... Old, decrepit and powerless is no way to go through life as a guy manning the hot corner, son. Mr. Howard, sluuger of the Phils' lineup? .172; 8 doubles and 3 HRs. A fine example you set! Delmon Damarcus Young... HAS too small a sample size. Mr. Rev...

Mr. Revere... point ... zero ... twenty-two.

Oh no, no cheating now. I think you definitely need to factor in the younger Mr. Young.

After all, somebody has to be Omega Theta Pi.

...where they hope to beat up on the hapless Miami Marlins.

yes, as a previous post explained, you have this backwards.

I can't wait to see the ratings for this series. Two god awful teams on a weekend.

Everybody is definitely dusting off their Dobbs shirseys. This series has so much intrigue. I don't get how every game isn't being nationally televised.

Phils have sent me two emails this week about new tickets being released for games later this month/June or promoting games upcoming this week.

Can't remmeber a week where the Phils have sent me two emails in season about ticket sales.

Remember back in 2007, when it was a huge surprise the Phillies were surging into the playoffs just as the Eagles (for the first time in years) were sinking out of them?

This is just the Phillies returning the favor and trying not to take too much media attention off of Chip Kelly.

Some proud souls still asking for over $10 for tickets to tonight's game on stubhub. Fight the good fight resellers.

Oh dear god. It seems that everyone now thinks this team stinks. And by the Clout Rule of everyone on BL is always wrong all of the time, I will now take the position that this team does not stink.

Nah, just kidding.

The Phillies continue their quest to keep their team OBP above .300!

I don't like to bring this up because of Iceman's man crush on him, but the mere absence of Revere from the lineup gives me some hope for an offensive outburst.

I know the Mets suck, but the offense clearly showed up and Revere did not. When he was inserted back into the lineup, thus negating at least one lineup spot, the offense went in the dumper.

He does have a sort cascade suck effect. When one broken popgun hitter is inserted in the lineup, that exposes the other one, M Young, for the popgun and double play machine that he is. So, every three or four batters, there is essentially a guy hitting that the pitcher need not worry about. And when those two and a pitcher are in the lineup, well, you get the idea.

Any reason why Revere is out of the lineup? Injury or ineptitiude-related?

MG, A little from column A and a little from column B. Tweet from Zolecki:

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki

Ben Revere not in lineup because of swollen right ring finger, although his slump made Manuel's decision easier.

BTW, when a "slump" constitutes pretty much the entirety of the player's time with a team in the first 4 weeks of the season, is it still even a "slump?"

I mean, Pat Burrell used to go into some prolonged slumps, but I can't recall anything to this magnitude in duration. Though, to be fair, he certainly had his fair share of "slump busters," too...

700 Level has some useless stuff sometimes, but this definitely made me chuckle.

http://www.the700level.com/05/02/13/Video-That-Time-Pedro-Martinez-Charged-t/landing_phillies.html?blockID=839811&feedID=

Love Schilling trying to start something from off the bench, and you know you've got a good fight brewing when the bullpens get in there in under 10 seconds.

I still like Revere. I'd really like him to start hitting. He's just been so dreadful that it's hard to want him in the lineup no matter how likeable a young man he is.

WP: Raul had some nasty slumps even more recently than that. Wasn't he something like 0-for-35 one May/June?

It was a running joke, but he did eventually turn it around a bit.

Raul did have prolonged slumps.

He also hit XBHs when not in a slump.

Polanco hit mostly singles and GIDPs, didn't he? How quickly I forget.

I still like Revere. I'd really like him to start hitting. He's just been so dreadful that it's hard to want him in the lineup no matter how likeable a young man he is.

Posted by: GBrettfan | Thursday, May 02, 2013 at 05:22 PM

I concur.

"I mean, Pat Burrell used to go into some prolonged slumps, but I can't recall anything to this magnitude in duration."

Really? Dude had a slump that was basically an entire lost season. He had the longest slumps of anybody. Way worse than Revere, although Revere's is not over so who knows.

True, Raul was certainly prone to slumps.

I guess my issue with Revere is that, even if this is a slump, the best you can hope for is that he comes out of it and becomes an effective slap hitter who can swipe a few bags. Basically, you hope he turns into Juan Pierre/Kenny Lofton.

That's a far cry from what an "unslumping" Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez can give you. Those guys could carry the whole offense when they hit their hot streaks.

I think the problem is that Revere's slump is actually less pronounced than it looks - just his lack of power makes the "breaks" in it seem less memorable (no 3-run HR to signal he's heading in the right direction - just a single that cleared the 2B's glove by inches).

To be clear. Revere is a disastrous acquisition and a dreadful hitter. But I do enjoy watching him catch the ball. He seems like a nice kid, who really enjoys playing the game. I only wish he enjoyed playing it somewhere else. I've come to the conclusion that he could be Willie Taveras on offense, except that he actually hits his pathetic grounders too hard and gets out of the box too slow to turn them into hits.

Show of hands: How many people think Rube ever saw this guy hit before trading for him? I vote no.

timr, which Burrell "lost season" are you referring to?:

Year OPS+
2004 107
2005 128
2006 122
2007 128
2008 125

I get that he crapped the bed for entire playoff series, but I never did understand some of the emotional vitriol about Pat the Bat. The numbers prove out that he was a very effective OF in his time in Philly. Frankly, I'd kill to have someone who could get on base at a .361 clip this season. It's really the only reason I can't kill Michael Young for what he's done so far.

If this team doesn't sweep before heading west. The position in standings will go for bad to very bad. Look uncle cholly isn't going to be here next year. So lets stop the grab ass games and turn it over. Now the big question is who will they keep if they go blow up mode. Just for the picks they could gather a few, but will it be worth it? Now till June/July going to be interesting.

aksmith: Revere isn't a "disastrous" acquisition, as he's young and cheap, and all he cost us was a starter who's doing just as bad for the Twins.

I don't like WAR, especially where pitchers are involved, but current WARs for:
Revere: -0.6
Worley: 0.2

And most (if not all) of Worley's WAR advantage comes from the fact that SPs get weighted disproportionately heavily as compared to all position players.

That was Fangraphs values.

BR gives:

Revere: -0.2
Worley: -0.8

Going overboard on Revere/Brown at this point doesn't make much sense.

The questions are how would Revere handle playing CF everyday and what kind of offense would he give the Phils.

I do wonder if Revere is scuffling this badly in another month though if Mayberry doesn't take the everday job in CF.

One thing I dislike about losing CSN Philly is I no longer get the Ricky Bo show (which is to say, all programming involving him).

He may be stupid at times, and he may not always give great insight, but he's hilarious to watch when the Phillies are struggling, and his hatred of Marshal Harris makes their inevitable team-ups even more amusing.

This was apropos of the Davis/Bo discussion about whether to option Revere.

HAha, Willard, conveniently leaving out 2003, when Pat hit .209 and had a wRC+ of 88. Iirc, he sub-Mendoza for virtually the entire season.

I remember that season well, it was one of the few times I've ever felt bad for a professional athlete. Credit to him, he never gave up, never snapped or flipped out.

Willard Preacher: why didn't you list Burrell's 2003 OPS+? That was the season where he spent most of the year below the mendoza line, after setting career highs in just about everything in 2002.

Whoa, Unikruk beat me to it by two the two minutes it took me to type that.

Everyone can stop discussing Revere now. aksmith has declared him a disastrous acquisition after 25 games.

I wait to weigh in on anything definitively until aksmith has given his opinion, and his arguments have pretty much convinced me that Revere is a lost cause. Oh well. Time to move on to other discussions.

Ah, you noticed that, huh? Truth be told, I went back about as far as the Phils really had any aspirations as a contending team, and when they actually started spending money on talent.

Granted, Pat had an absolutely abyssal "lost season" in 2003, where he posted a 90 OPS+ with a .209/.309/.404 (.713) slash.

So, if/when Revere finally comes out of his slump, perhaps he can aspire to eviscerate that line, but he's giving it a hell of a head start with his current .204/.245/.226 (.471).

Buster - He is disastrous aside from what was given up for him. He stinks. And you can't be young enough and cheap enough to stink this badly and still add value. He started out killing the offense from the leadoff spot. Then he proceeded to kill the lineup from two lower spots. Yes, he's not the only culprit. But his inability to generate anything offensively only exacerbates the struggles of the rest of the team. And if he should ever break out of this "slump" where exactly to you hit him in the lineup? Tenth?

aksmith: Revere isn't a "disastrous" acquisition, as he's young and cheap, and all he cost us was a starter who's doing just as bad for the Twins.

I don't like WAR, especially where pitchers are involved, but current WARs for:
Revere: -0.6
Worley: 0.2

And most (if not all) of Worley's WAR advantage comes from the fact that SPs get weighted disproportionately heavily as compared to all position players.

Posted by: Phillibuster | Thursday, May 02, 2013 at 05:42 PM

And that translates to a 31 OPS+. Yeah, 31.

If this is a prolonged "slump," I sure as hell cannot wait for the reversion to the mean. Should be pretty memorable.

Iceman - I will enter a gentleman's bet with you, since you are the lead Revere booster here and I have been his harshest critic. Let's start at a baseline of suck. I take the under. You, the over?

Iceman/aksmith, can I propose that if you do enter this gentleman's wager, that the "baseline of suck" be the universally accepted slash line of the incomparable Abe Nunez?

For his career:
.242/.313/.314 (.627); 62 OPS+

Seems pretty fair. That said, if we're grading out value of a trade acquisition versus this baseline, it's probably fair to say that he's not likely the future piece you build your team around...

timr, which Burrell "lost season" are you referring to?:

Year OPS+
2004 107

You kinda forgot 2003 90 OPS+.

WP- I agree with 99% of your point re: Revere/Burrell mainly because even when Burrell was slumping, he seemed to be hitting HRs. But I jumped at the opportunity to look at some of Burrell's awful slumps, because there were many where I remember just wanting to give him an unconditional release.

In 2008, from July 23rd-September 23rd (54 starts) he went .189/.283/.353/.636 with 55 Ks. He did have 8 HRs, though. But he was a .636 guy for 1/3 of the season.

In 2007, from April 7 to July 1st (72 games), he went .186/.362/.337/.699 (7 HR). Yes, somehow, his OBP was over his slugging for almost half the season. That's a stunning OBP, though, for a guy that was hitting .186. He walked almost 20% of the time during that stretch! 54 BB to 50 Ks.

In 2006, from May 28 to July 7 (30 games), he went .176/.311/.392/.704 (6 HR). He had 35 Ks in those 30 games.

In 2005, from April 19 to May 11 (18 games), he went .186/.329/.305/.634 (2 HR). He was actually really good that year and had his average hovering around .280-.290 all year, but for that stretch in April-May, he was terrible.

Burrell would consistently have a stretch of time spanning from 3 weeks to 3 months that he was absolutely putrid every year. I still miss him, though.

MLB Roster Moves: "The Rockies and RHP Roy Oswalt agree to Minor League deal.

Indians claim OF Ezequiel Carrera off waivers from Phillies; designate 1B Mike McDade for assignment."

Indians are just rubbing salt in the wound now...

Iceman, yeah, I'm right there with you. There were definitely stretches where it seemed like Burrell couldn't hit a pinata, but when you look at the numbers in aggregate, it's kind of hard to not just have to deal with that to get the end result. I don't think it's the same dynamic with someone like Revere.

Anyway, not like Revere needs me piling on him right now. He's got 95% of the fan base to convince he's got some talent in there. I hate that there's a mentality that CF is his job, and we'll just have to wait out his slump, when he hasn't really even shown us what that looks like (and the team is losing in the process). Though, benching him, "injury" or not, I suppose means that maybe that's not the case. Going to be interesting to see how it turns out. I, for one, am just saying that we should be realistic about the length of the leash we give him.

I'd kill for him to even post Burrell's 2003 numbers at this point. (Edmundo, feel free to read the rest of my posts for my rationale why I didn't originally post)

What I don't get is how 553 PA were enough to indicate the boundless potential of Ben Revere, but 593 PA aren't adequate to declare Brown a likely failure. Seems to me they're either both too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, good or bad, or they're enough of a sample to draw conclusions, good or bad.

Burrell's horrible slump year:

90 OPS+

Revere: 31 OPS+

Burrell at least still got on base too...with a .309 OBP...unlike Revere's absolutely pathetic .245 OBP.

aksmith- I kind of like that idea. I think WP's proposal of 'The Abe Nunez Line' is fair, but I'll propose this line, which is Revere's first as a MLB starter: .267/.310/.309/.619.

He was a 1.0 WAR that year and was starting CF most of the year. If he put up a line like that, that would not only suck, it would show that's he's fully regressed back to where he was as a player before last year's pretty good, and improved, 2.6 WAR.

If he is at or below that line by, say, July 1st, I think it's OK to start questioning the acquisition. Is that fair?

So does Ezequiel Carrera go on a HR tear now?

It would really suck if 2012 turns out to be Revere's outlier.

"So does Ezequiel Carrera go on a HR tear now?"

C'mon, GBF, this isn't your first season following the Phillies. You already well know the answer to that.

Oswalt signed by Colorado.

No word on whether they gave his tractor a club option or not. Its a minor-league deal.

Ezequiel is gonna tear the Phillies up when Cleveland comes to town in a couple of weeks.

"What I don't get is how 553 PA were enough to indicate the boundless potential of Ben Revere, but 593 PA aren't adequate to declare Brown a likely failure."

It's not that I'm unprepared to make a Declaration of Likely Failure re Domonic Brown. It's that, once you've made that Declaration, you're still stuck with the reality that there's no one to replace him. Hence, you stick it out with him until at least the All Star break, on the theory that the odds of his becoming a viable everyday player -- though increasingly slim by the day -- are still higher than the odds of his would-be replacement becoming a viable everyday player.

Phils will stick with Dom Brown all year and they should.

There isn't a single player on this roster or in AA/AAA that he is holding back.

If he plays all year and still can't hit for enough power & vs LHP (yeah I know he has better splits in 21 PAs vs LHP), then they know he is likely a guy that will be a PT/role player for them at best.

Sucks but at least you know what you have with him then and can plan accordingly.

The problem is that we don't have only 1 problem. Our aces have gotten off to an un-acelike start, our middle relief is worse than middlin', our defense has gotten worse, our cleanup hitter hasn't hit past the warning track more than 3 times, our 3Bman is another singles machine - when he isn't hitting into DPs, that is....

The team has thus far underperformed in pretty much every way possible. And it's not as though it's only been a few weeks or as though 2012 never happened, or as though our veterans are getting any younger. Which makes it very easy to wonder how much improvement we can reasonably expect, whether it will be enough, or whether it will be too little, too late, like last year.

Worse, though is to think that this might be our best season for the next several years of rebuilding.

It's really too bad we couldn't get another WS trophy out of this group during those 5 years '07-'11. I'm not sure, but I feel like watching them play .500 ball (or worse) would be less painful (although I'm sure we'd still complain, because bad ball is bad ball) if we had won more than one WS. Alas, they were not able to do so.

"There isn't a single player on this roster or in AA/AAA that he is holding back."

RUF!


(not serious)

@NEPP Oswalt signed a minor league deal? Wow.

GBF, good summation. I'm right there with you.

I posit that most of my frustration is a direct result of expectations being set for this team that, simply put, are not reasonable. I know that you'll never see your GM or Mgr say that they just want to play .500 ball, but everyone, local media included, has continued to foster this notion that a playoff run is feasible and maybe even somewhat likely for this team. I'm not saying that they should have blown it up after the WS win or Howard's injury, but I feel like the expectations of this team have been loftier than, say, Boston fans have probably had since their little run of dominance. I feel like we're being sold chicken poop and being told it's chicken salad.

Ruf does at least have a .989 OPS in his last 10 starts.

A shame he can't play LF.

Of course, there are other things to take into consideration when weighing the acquisition of Revere- not only who we traded him for (Worley and his -0.8 WAR so far this year), but also who the other options were at the time. Here are some lines right now along with their salaries:

Revere: .204/.245/.226/.471 ($515K)

Upton: .138/.219/.266/.485 ($15 million)
Span: .275/.345/.314/.659 ($4.75 million)
Vic: .292/.358/.319/.677 ($13 million)
M Cabrera (wanted by many here): .243/.292/.288/.580 ($8 million)
Bourn: .333/.375/.600/.975 ($7 million- played 10 games, currently on DL)
Pagan: .283/.333/.372/.705 ($8.25 million)
Fowler: .303/.410/.606/1.016 ($4.25 million)

I was firmly on the 'Don't get Fowler' bandwagon, but for what they paid for Revere, you wonder if that's going to end up looking like a big 'miss' by the end of the year.

And just for fun, the guy we all wanted packaged in the Revere deal:

Josh Willingham: .239/.400/.521/.921 (5 HRs)

The Curious Case of Ben Daniel Revere.

(His full name apparently is not Benjamin)

I know he hit 13 doubles in 2012. I was wondering how that was even possible.

So, I went back to the gamelogs and combined that with my MLB.tv archive access, and I watched all 13 doubles.

Now, I should say that one of his doubles didn't even rate high enough to make it into the condensed game which supposedly shows every hit. So, when I say that only 2 of the doubles made it to the wall, I might be off by 50%. And by "made it to the wall," I mean after 2-4 hops. Two were just misplayed fly balls into LF - it can be hard to catch a ball during a mini heart-attack that you'd get when you see Revere hit a pop fly. The rest were "bloops" into the "gap" that were tracked down but not quick enough to prevent him from getting to second base.

Revere hit 4 of his 13 doubles in a sizzling 5-game stretch from July28-Aug1. We can check Rube's travel records to see if he was in the vicinity during that improbable run.

So, I was hoping to be encouraged by looking at his play in better times to think he's just going through a slump right now. But, I'm more depressed than ever because it seems that playing him to "bloop left" could rob him of whatever "doubles power" he possesses.

GBrettfan - Yeah although they did have a really nice run.

If they had beat the Cards in '11, I liked their chances of winning the WS. Brewers were a team they matched up pretty well against that year & the Phils would have had home-field in the WS

It huge for the Cards who went 3-1 at Busch Stadium. Phils were also a better home team too with a signfiicantly better offense (.735 home OPS vs .700 road).

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